Static and dynamic fMRI-derived functional connectomes represent largely similar information

Functional connectivity (FC) of blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI time series can be estimated using methods that differ in sensitivity to the temporal order of time points (static vs. dynamic) and the number of regions considered in estimating a single edge (bivariate vs. multivariate). Previous research suggests that dynamic FC explains variability in FC fluctuations and behavior beyond static FC. Our aim was to systematically compare methods on both dimensions. We compared five FC methods: Pearson's/full correlation (static, bivariate), lagged correlation (dynamic, bivariate), partial correlation (static, multivariate), and multivariate AR model with and without self-connections (dynamic, multivariate). We compared these methods by (i) assessing similarities between FC matrices, (ii) by comparing node centrality measures, and (iii) by comparing the patterns of brain-behavior associations. Although FC estimates did not differ as a function of sensitivity to temporal order, we observed differences between the multivariate and bivariate FC methods. The dynamic FC estimates were highly correlated with the static FC estimates, especially when comparing group-level FC matrices. Similarly, there were high correlations between the patterns of brain-behavior associations obtained using the dynamic and static FC methods. We conclude that the dynamic FC estimates represent information largely similar to that of the static FC.

Adaptive Gaussian Markov random field spatiotemporal models for infectious disease mapping and forecasting

Recent disease mapping literature presents adaptively parameterized spatiotemporal (ST) autoregressive (AR) or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for Bayesian prediction of COVID-19 infection risks. These models were motivated to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and heterogeneities of infection risks. In the present paper, we synthesize, generalize, and unify the ST AR and CAR model constructions for models augmented by adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields, with an emphasis on disease forecasting. A general convolution construction is presented, with illustrative models motivated to (i) characterize local risk dependencies and influences over both spatial and temporal dimensions, (ii) model risk heterogeneities and discontinuities, and (iii) predict and forecast areal-level disease risks and occurrences. The broadened constructions allow rich options of intuitive parameterization for disease mapping and spatial regression. Illustrative parameterizations are presented for Bayesian hierarchical models of Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, and Bernoulli data models, respectively. They are also discussed in the context of quantifying time-varying or time-invariant effects of (omitted) covariates, with application to prediction and forecasting areal-level COVID-19 infection occurrences and probabilities of zero-infection. The model constructions presented herein have much wider scope in offering a flexible framework for modelling complex spatiotemporal data and for estimation, learning, and forecasting purposes.

A framework for reconstructing transmission networks in infectious diseases

In this paper, we propose a general framework for the reconstruction of the underlying cross-regional transmission network contributing to the spread of an infectious disease. We employ an autoregressive model that allows to decompose the mean number of infections into three components that describe: intra-locality infections, inter-locality infections, and infections from other sources such as travelers arriving to a country from abroad. This model is commonly used in the identification of spatiotemporal patterns in seasonal infectious diseases and thus in forecasting infection counts. However, our contribution lies in identifying the inter-locality term as a time-evolving network, and rather than using the model for forecasting, we focus on the network properties without any assumption on seasonality or recurrence of the disease. The topology of the network is then studied to get insight into the disease dynamics. Building on this, and particularly on the centrality of the nodes of the identified network, a strategy for intervention and disease control is devised.

A process convolution model for crash count data on a network

Crash data observed on a road network often exhibit spatial correlation due to unobserved effects with inherent spatial correlation following the structure of the road network. It is important to model this spatial correlation while accounting for the road network structure. In this study, we introduce the network process convolution (NPC) model. In this model, the spatial correlation among crash data is captured by a Gaussian Process (GP) approximated through a kernel convolution approach. The GP's covariance function is based on path distance computed between a limited set of knots and crash data points on the road network. The proposed model offers a straightforward approach for predicting crash frequency at unobserved locations where covariates are available, and for interpolating the GP values anywhere on the network. Inference procedure is performed following the Bayesian paradigm and is implemented in R-INLA, which offers an estimation procedure that is very efficient compared to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. We fitted our model to synthetic data and to crash data from Ottawa, Canada. We compared the proposed approach with a proper Conditional Autoregressive (pCAR) model, and with Poisson Regression (PR) and Negative Binomial (NB) models without latent effects. The results of the study indicated that although the pCAR model has comparable fitting performance, the NPC model outperforms pCAR when the main goal is to predict unobserved locations of interest. The proposed model also offers lower mean absolute error rates for cross validated crash counts, latent variable values, fixed-effect coefficients, as well as shorter interval scores for singletons. The NPC provides a natural way to account for the road network structure when considering the inclusion of spatially structured latent random effects in the modelling of crash data. It also offers an improved predictive capability for crash data on a road network.

A size-of-loss model for the negatively skewed insurance claims data: applications, risk analysis using different methods and statistical forecasting

The future values of the expected claims are very important for the insurance companies for avoiding the big losses under uncertainty which may be produced from future claims. In this paper, we define a new size-of-loss distribution for the negatively skewed insurance claims data. Four key risk indicators are defined and analyzed under four estimation methods: maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Anderson Darling. The insurance claims data are modeled using many competitive models and comprehensive comparison is performed under nine statistical tests. The autoregressive model is proposed to analyze the insurance claims data and estimate the future values of the expected claims. The value-at-risk estimation and the peaks-over random threshold mean-of-order-p methodology are considered.

Impact of mobility on COVID-19 spread - A time series analysis

In this paper, we investigate the impact of mobility on the spread of COVID-19 in Tehran, Iran. We have performed a time series analysis between the indicators of public transit use and inter-city trips on the number of infected people. Our results showed a significant relationship between the number of infected people and mobility variables with both short-term and long-term lags. The long-term effect of mobility showed to have a consistent lag correlation with the weekly number of new COVID-19 positive cases. In our statistical analysis, we also investigated key non-transportation variables. For instance, the mandatory use of masks in public transit resulted in observing a 10% decrease in the number of infected people. In addition, the results confirmed that super-spreading events had significant increases in the number of positive cases. We have also assessed the impact of major events and holidays throughout the study period and analyzed the impacts of mobility patterns in those situations. Our analysis shows that holidays without inter-city travel bans have been associated with a 27% increase in the number of weekly positive cases. As such, while holidays decrease transit usage, it can overall negatively affect spread control if proper control measures are not put in place. The result and discussions in this paper can help authorities understand the effects of different strategies and protocols with a pandemic control and choose the most beneficial ones.

Autoregressive count data modeling on mobility patterns to predict cases of COVID-19 infection

At the beginning of 2022 the global daily count of new cases of COVID-19 exceeded 3.2 million, a tripling of the historical peak value reported between the initial outbreak of the pandemic and the end of 2021. Aerosol transmission through interpersonal contact is the main cause of the disease's spread, although control measures have been put in place to reduce contact opportunities. Mobility pattern is a basic mechanism for understanding how people gather at a location and how long they stay there. Due to the inherent dependencies in disease transmission, models for associating mobility data with confirmed cases need to be individually designed for different regions and time periods. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive count data model under the framework of a generalized linear model to illustrate a process of model specification and selection. By evaluating a 14-day-ahead prediction from Sweden, the results showed that for a dense population region, using mobility data with a lag of 8 days is the most reliable way of predicting the number of confirmed cases in relative numbers at a high coverage rate. It is sufficient for both of the autoregressive terms, studied variable and conditional expectation, to take one day back. For sparsely populated regions, a lag of 10 days produced the lowest error in absolute value for the predictions, where weekly periodicity on the studied variable is recommended for use. Interventions were further included to identify the most relevant mobility categories. Statistical features were also presented to verify the model assumptions.

A hierarchical spatio-temporal model to analyze relative risk variations of COVID-19: a focus on Spain, Italy and Germany

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in informed and timely public health policies. In this paper, we use a spatio-temporal stochastic model to explain the temporal and spatial variations in the daily number of new confirmed cases in Spain, Italy and Germany from late February 2020 to mid January 2021. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we found that the temporal trends of the epidemic in the three countries rapidly reached their peaks and slowly started to decline at the beginning of April and then increased and reached their second maximum in the middle of November. However decline and increase of the temporal trend seems to show different patterns in Spain, Italy and Germany.

An exploration of fractal-based prognostic model and comparative analysis for second wave of COVID-19 diffusion

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has fatalized 216 countries across the world and has claimed the lives of millions of people globally. Researches are being carried out worldwide by scientists to understand the nature of this catastrophic virus and find a potential vaccine for it. The most possible efforts have been taken to present this paper as a form of contribution to the understanding of this lethal virus in the first and second wave. This paper presents a unique technique for the methodical comparison of disastrous virus dissemination in two waves amid five most infested countries and the death rate of the virus in order to attain a clear view on the behaviour of the spread of the disease. For this study, the data set of the number of deaths per day and the number of infected cases per day of the most affected countries, the USA, Brazil, Russia, India, and the UK, have been considered in the first and second waves. The correlation fractal dimension has been estimated for the prescribed data sets of COVID-19, and the rate of death has been compared based on the correlation fractal dimension estimate curve. The statistical tool, analysis of variance, has also been used to support the performance of the proposed method. Further, the prediction of the daily death rate has been demonstrated through the autoregressive moving average model. In addition, this study also emphasis a feasible reconstruction of the death rate based on the fractal interpolation function. Subsequently, the normal probability plot is portrayed for the original data and the predicted data, derived through the fractal interpolation function to estimate the accuracy of the prediction. Finally, this paper neatly summarized with the comparison and prediction of epidemic curve of the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic to visualize the transmission rate in the both times.

EEG autoregressive modeling analysis: A diagnostic tool for patients with epilepsy without epileptiform discharges

OBJECTIVE

Numerous types of nonepileptic paroxysmal events, such as syncopes and psychogenic nonepileptic seizures, may imitate epileptic seizures and lead to diagnostic difficulty. Such misdiagnoses may lead to inappropriate treatment in patients that can considerably affect their lives. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is a commonly used tool in assisting diagnosis of epilepsy. Although the appearance of epileptiform discharges (EDs) in EEG recordings is specific for epilepsy diagnosis, only 25%-56% of patients with epilepsy show EDs in their first EEG examination.

METHODS

In this study, we developed an autoregressive (AR) model prediction error-based EEG classification method to distinguish EEG signals between controls and patients with epilepsy without EDs. Twenty-three patients with generalized epilepsy without EDs in their EEG recordings and 23 age-matched controls were enrolled. Their EEG recordings were classified using AR model prediction error-based EEG features.

RESULTS

Among different classification methods, XGBoost achieved the highest performance in terms of accuracy and true positive rate. The results showed that the accuracy, area under the curve, true positive rate, and true negative rate were 85.17%, 87.54%, 89.98%, and 81.81%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed method can help neurologists in the early diagnosis of epilepsy in patients without EDs and might help in differentiating between nonepileptic paroxysmal events and epilepsy.

SIGNIFICANCE

EEG AR model prediction errors could be used as an alternative diagnostic marker of epilepsy.

Time series modelling to forecast the confirmed and recovered cases of COVID-19

Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses from the Coronaviridae family affecting neurological, gastrointestinal, hepatic and respiratory systems. In late 2019 a new member of this family belonging to the Betacoronavirus genera (referred to as COVID-19) originated and spread quickly across the world calling for strict containment plans and policies. In most countries in the world, the outbreak of the disease has been serious and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has increased daily, while, fortunately the recovered COVID-19 cases have also increased. Clearly, forecasting the "confirmed" and "recovered" COVID-19 cases helps planning to control the disease and plan for utilization of health care resources. Time series models based on statistical methodology are useful to model time-indexed data and for forecasting. Autoregressive time series models based on two-piece scale mixture normal distributions, called TP-SMN-AR models, is a flexible family of models involving many classical symmetric/asymmetric and light/heavy tailed autoregressive models. In this paper, we use this family of models to analyze the real world time series data of confirmed and recovered COVID-19 cases.

Identifying an optimal epoch length for spectral analysis of heart rate of critically-ill infants

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal epoch length for power spectral analysis of cardiac beat-to-beat intervals (BBi) in critically ill newborns.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

BBi of 49 term newborns undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy with well-defined outcomes (good outcome (n = 28): no or mild brain injury and adverse outcome (n = 21): moderate or severe brain injury or death) served as test population. A power spectrum of BBi was calculated with an autoregressive model in three different epoch lengths: 2 min, 5 min, and 10 min. Spectral power was quantified in three different frequency bands: very low-frequency (0.016-0.04 Hz), low-frequency (0.05-0.25 Hz), and high-frequency (0.3-1 Hz). In each frequency band, the absolute power and the normalized power were calculated. Furthermore, standard deviation (SDNN) of BBi was calculated. These metrics were compared between the outcome groups with a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis in 3-h windows. The ROC curve area >0.7 was regarded as a significant separation.

RESULTS

The absolute spectral powers in all three epoch lengths in all three frequency bands and SDNN distinguished the two outcome groups consistently for most time points. The spectral metrics calculated with a 2-min epoch length performed as well as the five- and 10-min epoch lengths (paired t-test P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Spectral analysis of BBi in 2-min epoch shows a similar discriminatory power as longer epoch lengths. A shorter epoch also has clinical advantages for translation into a continuous real-time bedside monitor of heart rate variability in the intensive care unit.

Use of Twitter data to improve Zika virus surveillance in the United States during the 2016 epidemic

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne arbovirus that can produce serious public health consequences. In 2016, ZIKV caused an epidemic in many countries around the world, including the United States. ZIKV surveillance and vector control is essential to combating future epidemics. However, challenges relating to the timely publication of case reports significantly limit the effectiveness of current surveillance methods. In many countries with poor infrastructure, established systems for case reporting often do not exist. Previous studies investigating the H1N1 pandemic, general influenza and the recent Ebola outbreak have demonstrated that time- and geo-tagged Twitter data, which is immediately available, can be utilized to overcome these limitations.

METHODS

In this study, we employed a recently developed system called Cloudberry to filter a random sample of Twitter data to investigate the feasibility of using such data for ZIKV epidemic tracking on a national and state (Florida) level. Two auto-regressive models were calibrated using weekly ZIKV case counts and zika tweets in order to estimate weekly ZIKV cases 1 week in advance.

RESULTS

While models tended to over-predict at low case counts and under-predict at extreme high counts, a comparison of predicted versus observed weekly ZIKV case counts following model calibration demonstrated overall reasonable predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.74 for the Florida model and 0.70 for the U.S.

MODEL

Time-series analysis of predicted and observed ZIKV cases following internal cross-validation exhibited very similar patterns, demonstrating reasonable model performance. Spatially, the distribution of cumulative ZIKV case counts (local- & travel-related) and zika tweets across all 50 U.S. states showed a high correlation (r = 0.73) after adjusting for population.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the value of utilizing Twitter data for the purposes of disease surveillance. This is of high value to epidemiologist and public health officials charged with protecting the public during future outbreaks.

Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand

Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

Serial correlations in single-subject fMRI with sub-second TR

When performing statistical analysis of single-subject fMRI data, serial correlations need to be taken into account to allow for valid inference. Otherwise, the variability in the parameter estimates might be under-estimated resulting in increased false-positive rates. Serial correlations in fMRI data are commonly characterized in terms of a first-order autoregressive (AR) process and then removed via pre-whitening. The required noise model for the pre-whitening depends on a number of parameters, particularly the repetition time (TR). Here we investigate how the sub-second temporal resolution provided by simultaneous multislice (SMS) imaging changes the noise structure in fMRI time series. We fit a higher-order AR model and then estimate the optimal AR model order for a sequence with a TR of less than 600 ms providing whole brain coverage. We show that physiological noise modelling successfully reduces the required AR model order, but remaining serial correlations necessitate an advanced noise model. We conclude that commonly used noise models, such as the AR(1) model, are inadequate for modelling serial correlations in fMRI using sub-second TRs. Rather, physiological noise modelling in combination with advanced pre-whitening schemes enable valid inference in single-subject analysis using fast fMRI sequences.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

Background

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region.

Methods

This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models.

Results

Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts.

Conclusion

Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1602-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Longitudinal Relationships between Bullying and Moral Disengagement among Adolescents

Moral disengagement is a series of cognitive processes used to disengage moral standards to achieve absolved guilt and permit immoral conduct and has been found to be an important connection to bullying and aggressive behaviors among adolescents. This study examined the longitudinal relationship between moral disengagement and bullying behavior among a group of adolescents from fifth grade to ninth grade (n = 1180, mean age = 12.2, SD = 1.29, 46.5 % female, 80.2 % Caucasian/White, 7.1 % Black/African American, 5.4 % Latino/Hispanic, 2.4 % Asian American, and 1.7 % other) over three semesters. The objectives were to investigate (a) whether moral disengagement was a precursor to bullying behavior, vice versa, or whether the relationship was reciprocal and (b) whether gender and grade predicted moral disengagement and bullying behavior. The results showed that moral disengagement predicted bullying perpetration 6 months later. Also, older students and males utilized more moral disengagement than younger students and females and younger students and males engaged in greater bullying perpetration. Indirect paths linking gender and grade to bullying via moral disengagement at previous time points were identified and implications for bullying prevention are discussed. The findings underscore the importance of examining moral disengagement when studying bullying and across gender and development.

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model.

A statistical model for determining impact of wildland fires on Particulate Matter (PM₂.₅) in Central California aided by satellite imagery of smoke

As the climate in California warms and wildfires become larger and more severe, satellite-based observational tools are frequently used for studying impact of those fires on air quality. However little objective work has been done to quantify the skill these satellite observations of smoke plumes have in predicting impacts to PM2.5 concentrations at ground level monitors, especially those monitors used to determine attainment values for air quality under the Clean Air Act. Using PM2.5 monitoring data from a suite of monitors throughout the Central California area, we found a significant, but weak relationship between satellite-observed smoke plumes and PM2.5 concentrations measured at the surface. However, when combined with an autoregressive statistical model that uses weather and seasonal factors to identify thresholds for flagging unusual events at these sites, we found that the presence of smoke plumes could reliably identify periods of wildfire influence with 95% accuracy.

Signal-to-noise ratio enhancement on SEM images using a cubic spline interpolation with Savitzky-Golay filters and weighted least squares error

A new technique based on cubic spline interpolation with Savitzky-Golay smoothing using weighted least squares error filter is enhanced for scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. A diversity of sample images is captured and the performance is found to be better when compared with the moving average and the standard median filters, with respect to eliminating noise. This technique can be implemented efficiently on real-time SEM images, with all mandatory data for processing obtained from a single image. Noise in images, and particularly in SEM images, are undesirable. A new noise reduction technique, based on cubic spline interpolation with Savitzky-Golay and weighted least squares error method, is developed. We apply the combined technique to single image signal-to-noise ratio estimation and noise reduction for SEM imaging system. This autocorrelation-based technique requires image details to be correlated over a few pixels, whereas the noise is assumed to be uncorrelated from pixel to pixel. The noise component is derived from the difference between the image autocorrelation at zero offset, and the estimation of the corresponding original autocorrelation. In the few test cases involving different images, the efficiency of the developed noise reduction filter is proved to be significantly better than those obtained from the other methods. Noise can be reduced efficiently with appropriate choice of scan rate from real-time SEM images, without generating corruption or increasing scanning time.

Autoregressive model in the Lp norm space for EEG analysis

The autoregressive (AR) model is widely used in electroencephalogram (EEG) analyses such as waveform fitting, spectrum estimation, and system identification. In real applications, EEGs are inevitably contaminated with unexpected outlier artifacts, and this must be overcome. However, most of the current AR models are based on the L2 norm structure, which exaggerates the outlier effect due to the square property of the L2 norm. In this paper, a novel AR object function is constructed in the Lp (p≤1) norm space with the aim to compress the outlier effects on EEG analysis, and a fast iteration procedure is developed to solve this new AR model. The quantitative evaluation using simulated EEGs with outliers proves that the proposed Lp (p≤1) AR can estimate the AR parameters more robustly than the Yule-Walker, Burg and LS methods, under various simulated outlier conditions. The actual application to the resting EEG recording with ocular artifacts also demonstrates that Lp (p≤1) AR can effectively address the outliers and recover a resting EEG power spectrum that is more consistent with its physiological basis.

The emotion recognition system based on autoregressive model and sequential forward feature selection of electroencephalogram signals

Electroencephalogram (EEG) is one of the useful biological signals to distinguish different brain diseases and mental states. In recent years, detecting different emotional states from biological signals has been merged more attention by researchers and several feature extraction methods and classifiers are suggested to recognize emotions from EEG signals. In this research, we introduce an emotion recognition system using autoregressive (AR) model, sequential forward feature selection (SFS) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier using EEG signals during emotional audio-visual inductions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of AR features in the classification of emotional states. To achieve this goal, a distinguished AR method (Burg's method) based on Levinson-Durbin's recursive algorithm is used and AR coefficients are extracted as feature vectors. In the next step, two different feature selection methods based on SFS algorithm and Davies-Bouldin index are used in order to decrease the complexity of computing and redundancy of features; then, three different classifiers include KNN, quadratic discriminant analysis and linear discriminant analysis are used to discriminate two and three different classes of valence and arousal levels. The proposed method is evaluated with EEG signals of available database for emotion analysis using physiological signals, which are recorded from 32 participants during 40 1 min audio visual inductions. According to the results, AR features are efficient to recognize emotional states from EEG signals, and KNN performs better than two other classifiers in discriminating of both two and three valence/arousal classes. The results also show that SFS method improves accuracies by almost 10-15% as compared to Davies-Bouldin based feature selection. The best accuracies are %72.33 and %74.20 for two classes of valence and arousal and %61.10 and %65.16 for three classes, respectively.

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate

The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the post-transition phase. The computationally intensive part of the projection model is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the parameters of the drift term. This article summarizes the projection model and describes the basic steps to generate probabilistic projections, as well as other functionalities such as projecting aggregate outcomes and dealing with missing values.