Analyzing vegetation health dynamics across seasons and regions through NDVI and climatic variables

This study assesses the relationships between vegetation dynamics and climatic variations in Pakistan from 2000 to 2023. Employing high-resolution Landsat data for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) assessments, integrated with climate variables from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets, our approach leverages Google Earth Engine (GEE) for efficient processing. It combines statistical methodologies, including linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimator, partial correlation, and cross wavelet transform analyses. The findings highlight significant spatial and temporal variations in NDVI, with an annual increase averaging 0.00197 per year (p < 0.0001). This positive trend is coupled with an increase in precipitation by 0.4801 mm/year (p = 0.0016). In contrast, our analysis recorded a slight decrease in temperature (- 0.01011 °C/year, p < 0.05) and a reduction in solar radiation (- 0.27526 W/m2/year, p < 0.05). Notably, cross-wavelet transform analysis underscored significant coherence between NDVI and climatic factors, revealing periods of synchronized fluctuations and distinct lagged relationships. This analysis particularly highlighted precipitation as a primary driver of vegetation growth, illustrating its crucial impact across various Pakistani regions. Moreover, the analysis revealed distinct seasonal patterns, indicating that vegetation health is most responsive during the monsoon season, correlating strongly with peaks in seasonal precipitation. Our investigation has revealed Pakistan's complex association between vegetation health and climatic factors, which varies across different regions. Through cross-wavelet analysis, we have identified distinct coherence and phase relationships that highlight the critical influence of climatic drivers on vegetation patterns. These insights are crucial for developing regional climate adaptation strategies and informing sustainable agricultural and environmental management practices in the face of ongoing climatic changes.

Assessing local and transboundary fine particulate matter pollution and sectoral contributions in Southeast Asia during haze months of 2015-2019

While previous studies have investigated haze events over Southeast Asia (SEA), local and transboundary contributions of various emission sources to haze months over the entire SEA have yet to be assessed comprehensively and systematically. We utilized the Particle Source Apportionment Technique (PSAT) to quantify the spatial local, transboundary, and sectoral contributions to PM2.5 over SEA during the haze months of 2015-2019. Results show that local emission contributions accounted for 56.1 % ~ 94.2 % of PM2.5 in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Transboundary contributions (23.1 % ~ 57.6 %) from Indonesia notably influenced maritime SEA. Vietnam (15.6 % ~ 39.1 %) and super-regional (17.0 % ~ 34.3 %) contributions outside the SEA exerted remarkable impacts on mainland SEA. Among different sectors, fire emissions contributed the most to PM2.5 over maritime SEA (23.0 % ~ 68.6 %) during the studied haze months, whereas residential and other emissions were the main contributors to mainland SEA (27.2 % ~ 36.7 %). Regarding the source species, primary PM2.5 accounted for the majority of PM2.5. VOC and SO2 composed most of the secondary PM2.5 due to massive VOC emissions in the region and the priority reaction of NH3 with sulfuric acid (H2SO4) to form ammonium sulfate. Besides, the intensified haze months in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019 were characterized by more intensive fire emissions in the region and the climatic variability-induced meteorological effects that provided favorable condition for transboundary air pollution (56.9 % and 44.9 %, respectively, for maritime SEA, as well as 46.0 % and 37.7 %, respectively, for mainland SEA in the two studied haze months). The haze months can be attributed to the notable drought conditions amidst global climatic phenomena such as El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019, respectively.

Interdecadal variation in sediment yield from a forested mountain basin: The role of hydroclimatic variability, anthropogenic disturbances, and geomorphic connectivity

Variation in sediment yield may reflect a signal of disturbances in the upstream landscape, modified by sediment routing. This study, conducted in a forested drainage basin in the inland Pacific Northwest, USA, sought to generate a better insight into the interdecadal variability of sediment yield in mountain landscapes in response to environmental change during the last century. To this end, we examined: (1) sediment yield fluctuations; and (2) their association with streamflow and land use changes; as well as (3) streamflow links to climate variability modes; and (4) the influence of sediment delivery from hillslope sources to streams (lateral connectivity) and its downstream routing through the stream network (longitudinal connectivity) on land use signal at the basin's outlet. Sediment yield between 1910 and 2017, estimated based on reconstructed fluvial delta growth, displayed an order of magnitude variability, which indicates a substantial geomorphic sensitivity. The interpretation of temporal patterns and an exploratory statistical analysis pointed to land use-related sediment supply changes as the primary driver of these fluctuations, dominating system behavior before changes in environmental regulations and practices in the mid-1970s. Hydroclimatically controlled streamflow variability appeared to be more prominent in the subsequent period. Our connectivity analysis suggested that a considerable portion of coarse sediment mobilized by harvest and road construction may still reside within the channel network. In light of previous research in this landscape system, we speculate that, despite limited anthropogenic pressures in the recent decades, its characteristics and behavior continue to be conditioned by land use legacies. Overall, this study contributes to the growing understanding of profound anthropogenic transformation of the earth surface. Specifically, it demonstrates that historical resource extraction may have left a lasting imprint even in relatively remote mountain landscapes. Given the ongoing rapid environmental change, such understanding is crucial for watershed management, conservation, and restoration.

Have any effect of COVID-19 lockdown on environmental sustainability? A study from most polluted metropolitan area of India

The long-term lockdown due to COVID-19 has beneficial impact on the natural environment. India has enforced a lockdown on 24th March 2020 and was subsequently extended in various phases. The lockdown due to the sudden spurt of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown a significant decline in concentration of air pollutants across India. The present article dealt with scenarios of air quality concentration of air pollutants, and effect on climatic variability during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Kolkata Metropolitan Area, India. The result showed that the air pollutants are significantly reduced and the air quality index (AQI) was improved during the lockdown months. Aerosol concentrations decreased by - 54.94% from the period of pre-lockdown. The major air pollutants like particulate matters (PM_2.5, PM₁₀), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO) and Ozone (O₃) were observed the maximum reduction ( - 40 to  - 60%) in the COVID-19 lockdown period. The AQI has been improved by 54.94% in the lockdown period. On the other hand, Sen's slope rank and the Mann-Kendal trend test showed the daily decreased of air pollutants rate is  - 0.051 to  - 1.586 μg /m3. The increasing trend of daily minimum, average, and maximum temperature from the month of March to May in this year (2020s) are 0.091, 0.118, and 0.106 °C which is lowest than the 2016s to 2019s trend. Therefore, this research has an enormous opportunity to explain the effects of the lockdown on air quality and climate variability, and it can also be helpful for policymakers and decision-makers to enact appropriate measures to control air pollution.

Disentangling the effects of climatic variability and climate extremes on the belowground biomass of C3- and C4-dominated grasslands across five ecoregions

Elucidating the variation in grassland belowground biomass (BGB) and its response to changes in climatic variables are key issues in plant ecology research. In this study, BGB data for five ecoregions (cold steppe, temperate dry steppe, savanna, humid savanna, and humid temperate) were used to examine the effects of climatic variability and extremes on the BGB of C₃- and C₄-dominated grasslands. Results showed that BGB varied significantly across the ecoregions, with the highest levels in cold steppe and the lowest in savanna. The results indicated that growing-season temperature, maximum and minimum temperatures and their interactions had significantly positive effects on the single-harvest BGB of C₃ plants in colder ecoregions (i.e., humid temperate and cold steppe) and of C₄ plants in arid ecoregions (i.e., temperate dry steppe and savanna). The single-harvest BGB of C₃ plants in arid ecoregions and C₄ plants in humid savanna ecoregion declined with increasing temperature during the growing season. Growing-season precipitation exerted significant positive effects on the single-harvest BGB of C₄ plants in arid ecoregions. Annual temperature variables negatively impacted the annual BGB of humid temperate ecoregion, because of the dominance of C₃ plants. Increasing cumulative growing-season precipitation elevated and the mean annual temperature reduced the annual BGB of both categories of plants in arid ecoregions. Compared with normal climates, extreme dry events during the growing season enhanced single-harvest BGB in colder ecoregions. The single-harvest BGB of C₄ plants in savanna tended to increase during extreme wet and decrease during moderate dry events compared to normal climates. This study suggests that the differential effects of climatic variability and extremes on BGB can be explained by differences in plant types, and ecoregions. These findings on the responses of the BGB to climatic variability and extremes constitute important scientific evidence emphasizing the need to maintain ecosystem stability across ecoregions.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Spatial-temporal analysis of net primary production (NPP) and its relationship with climatic factors in Iran

Fluctuations of the climate variables have increased in the recent years. These fluctuations are different in each climatic region. Net primary production (NPP) indicating the plant growth and carbon stabilization over period of time is influenced by these fluctuations. Investigation of the variations in the NPP and analysis of its relationship with the climatic and environmental variables can play a key role in determining the effects of fluctuations of climatic variables on the NPP. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in the NPP and its correlation with precipitation rate and temperature during 2000-2014 based on the annual NPP estimates determined by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and precipitation and temperature data of the synoptic stations in eight climate regions in Iran. The slope of variations in the NPP was calculated in these climatic regions, and then, the changes in the NPP trend at two confidence levels of 95 and 99% were investigated based on the pixel-based method using the Mann-Kendall test. The sensitivity of NPP to climatic variables of temperature and precipitation was also estimated by calculating the correlation. The results showed the significant spatial distribution of NPP in the whole region under study indicating a declining trend from north to south and from west to east directions. The results also indicated the nonlinear variations in the temporal distribution of NPP. The annual mean NPP was found to follow the climatic boundaries in the climatic regions except for climate region 2, and region with the higher annual mean precipitation had higher annual mean NPP. Analysis of the trend by the Mann-Kendall method revealed that 3.2% of the pixels in the whole region followed a certain trend. Among the pixels, 70% of them followed a negative trend and the remaining 30% followed a positive trend. The greatest number of pixels with a certain trend was found in the Gulf of Oman coast climate region so that 93% of the pixels had a positive trend. The lowest number of pixels with a certain trend was observed in eastern Alborz foothills so that 87% of the pixels showed a negative trend. Slope variations of the NPP in the whole region varied from - 35 to 46 gC m² year^-1. The eastern plateau had the highest negative slope variations among the climate regions, and the highest positive slope variation of 42% was observed in the highlands climate region. In general, the precipitation rate and temperature showed a mean partial coefficient of 0.22 and 0.02, respectively, and the correlation between the NPP and temperature and precipitation was different in each climatic region. The temperature was negatively correlated with the NPP in four climatic regions with higher annual mean temperatures and in other climatic regions; it had a weak positive correlation. Therefore, the sensitivity of NPP to precipitation and temperature was different in each climatic region.

Geographic isolation and climatic variability contribute to genetic differentiation in fragmented populations of the long-lived subalpine conifer Pinus cembra L. in the western Alps

Background

Genetic processes shape the modern-day distribution of genetic variation within and between populations and can provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of evolution. The resulting genetic variation is often unequally partitioned within species’ distribution range and especially large differences can manifest at the range limit, where population fragmentation and isolation play a crucial role in species survival. Despite several molecular studies investigating the genetic diversity and differentiation of European Alpine mountain forests, the climatic and demographic constrains which influence the genetic processes are often unknown. Here, we apply non-coding microsatellite markers to evaluate the sporadic peripheral and continuous populations of cembra pine (Pinus cembra L.), a long-lived conifer species that inhabits the subalpine treeline ecotone in the western Alps to investigate how the genetic processes contribute to the modern-day spatial distribution. Moreover, we corroborate our findings with paleoecological records, micro and macro-remains, to infer the species’ possible glacial refugia and expansion scenarios.

Results

Four genetically distinct groups were identified, with Bayesian and F_ST based approaches, across the range of the species, situated in the northern, inner and south-western Alps. We found that genetic differentiation is substantially higher in marginal populations than at the center of the range, and marginal stands are characterized by geographic and genetic isolation due to spatial segregation and restricted gene flow. Moreover, multiple matrix regression approaches revealed effects of climatic heterogeneity in species’ spatial genetic pattern. Also, population stability tests indicated that all populations had experienced a severe historical bottleneck, no heterozygosity excess was detected, suggesting that more recently population sizes have remained relatively stable.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that cembra pine might have survived in multiple glacial refugia and subsequently recolonized the Alps by different routes. Modern-day marginal populations, at the edge of the species’ range, could maintain stable sizes over long periods without inbreeding depression and preserve high amounts of genetic variation. Moreover, our analyses indicate that climatic variability has played a major role in shaping differentiation, in addition to past historical events such as migration and demographic changes.

Effects of population, land cover change, and climatic variability on wetland resource degradation in a Ramsar listed Ghodaghodi Lake Complex, Nepal

Wetlands support livelihoods of millions of people in developing countries. However, wetland land cover change, as a result of growing population and subsequent anthropogenic activities, has been evident at a global scale, and ongoing micro-climate alteration has further deteriorating its ecological condition. Nepal is equally vulnerable to wetland changes that can have direct effects on the sustenance of local wetland-dependent people. This study thus attempts to look at how wetland areas of Nepal are undergoing changes, taking a case of Ghodaghodi Lake Complex (GLC). Remote sensing technique, climate, and population data were used in the analysis aided by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Results showed that total population of the study area has been increased drastically in recent decades. Landsat image analysis for 25 years (1989-2016) depicts changes in the GLC in its land cover, with maximum expansion observed in settlement followed by river and banks, whereas maximum reduction was observed in forests, followed by areas of agricultural land and lake. Similarly, diurnal temperature is increasing while total annual rainfall is slightly decreasing during the same period. Locals have perceived ecological degradation in the GLC due to both anthropogenic pressure and climatic variability. The study outlines linkage of drivers for GLC degradation and finally makes recommendations to achieve longer term sustainability of the lake complex.

A multi-year experiment shows that lower precipitation predictability encourages plants' early life stages and enhances population viability

Climate change is a key factor that may cause the extinction of species. The associated reduced weather predictability may alter the survival of plants, especially during their early life stages, when individuals are most fragile. While it is expected that extreme weather events will be highly detrimental for species, the effects of more subtle environmental changes have been little considered. In a four-year experiment on two herbaceous plants, Papaver rhoeas and Onobrychis viciifolia, we manipulated the predictability of precipitation by changing the temporal correlation of precipitation events while maintaining average precipitation constant, leading to more and less predictable treatments. We assessed the effect of predictability on plant viability in terms of seedling emergence, survival, seed production, and population growth rate. We found greater seedling emergence, survival, and population growth for plants experiencing lower intra-seasonal predictability, but more so during early compared to late life stages. Since predictability levels were maintained across four generations, we have also tested whether descendants exhibited transgenerational responses to previous predictability conditions. In P. rhoeas, descendants had increased the seedling emergence compared to ancestors under both treatments, but more so under lower precipitation predictability. However, higher predictability in the late treatment induced higher survival in descendants, showing that these conditions may benefit long-term survival. This experiment highlights the ability of some plants to rapidly exploit environmental resources and increase their survival under less predictable conditions, especially during early life stages. Therefore, this study provides relevant evidence of the survival capacity of some species under current and future short-term environmental alterations.

Impacts of climatic variability on agriculture and options for adaptation in the Surma River basin, Bangladesh

The objectives of this study are to explore the impacts of climatic variability on agriculture and to find out the viable options for adaptation to the changing climate. The primary data are collected through a questionnaire survey, key informant interviews and field observations in two agriculture-based villages of the Surma River basin. A household-level structured questionnaire survey was conducted on 260 households selected from 746 through simple random sampling. The study first explored the impacts of climatic variability on agriculture and fishery. Then, the existing adaptation measures undertaken by the farmer to combat the adverse impacts of climatic variability were identified. It was found that climatic variability adversely affects the crop production, crop diversity and cropping pattern in the study area. It hampers production rate, cultivation area, soil productivity and the mode of irrigation of an agricultural system of an area. Similarly, inauspicious climatic events also destroy the fishery and livestock sectors. In addition, the socioeconomic circumstances of farmers are also being influenced by climatic change. Hence, farmers are adopting feasible adaptation measures to cope with and adapt to the adverse and changing climatic events. The present study explored a number of indigenous and modern adaptation measures undertaken by the farmers.

Environmental forcing on the flux of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in recent sediments from a subtropical lagoon in the Gulf of California

To evaluate the relationship of changes in organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) fluxes to sediments with environmental variables (air and sea surface temperatures, El Niño conditions, rainfall, and terrigenous index), cyst assemblages were analyzed in a ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment core (~100years) from the pristine San José Lagoon (San José Island, SW Gulf of California). The dinocyst abundance ranged from 3784 to 25,108cystsg^-1 and fluxes were of the order of 10³-10⁴cystscm^-2yr^-1. Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Polysphaeridium zoharyi and Spiniferites taxa accounted for 96% of the total dinocyst assemblages, and the abundances of these species increased towards the core surface. P. zoharyi fluxes increased from about 1965 onwards. Redundancy analyses, showed that mean minimum air temperature and terrigenous index were the key factors governing dinocyst fluxes. In this study, dinocyst fluxes of dominant taxa had responded to changes in climate-dependent environmental variables during the past ~20years; this may also be the case in other subtropical coastal lagoons.

Anthropogenic and natural variability in the composition of sedimentary organic matter of the urbanised coastal zone of Montevideo (Río de la Plata)

This study is aimed to identify the different sources of sedimentary organic matter (SOM) within Montevideo coastal zone (MCZ). To this end δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C/N ratio were analysed in surface sediments and a sediment core. Sediment core analysis showed that until ~1950CE SOM was mainly marine, observing a shift towards lower δ¹³C in recent sediments, evidencing an estuarine composition. This trend was associated to the climatic variability, which exerted a major influence on the SOM composition, leading to an increased input of terrigenous material and associated anthropogenic contaminants. Surface sediments collected during different El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) phases did not show inter-annual variability in SOM composition, which was mainly marine in both eastern and western region of MCZ and estuarine in Montevideo Bay. This spatial pattern provides new insights on the dynamics and factors affecting organic matter sources available for primary consumers along the study region.

Vegetation greenness modelling in response to interannual precipitation and temperature changes between 2001 and 2012 in Liao River Basin in Jilin Province, China

Background

Liao River basin in Jilin Province is the place of origin of the Dongliao River. This study gives a comprehensive analysis of the vegetation coverage in the region and provides a potential theoretical basis for ecological restoration.

Methods

The seasonal variation of vegetation greenness and dynamics based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in major land cover types in the region was studied. Analyzing the relationship NDVI, temperature and rainfall, we derived a set of predictor variables from 2001 to 2012 using the MODIS Terra level 1 Product (MOD02QKM).

Results

The results showed a general increasing trend in NDVI value in the region, while 34.63 % of the region showed degradation. NDVI values begin to rise from April when plants are regreening and they drop in September when temperature are decreasing and the leaves are falling in the study area and temperature was found decreasing during the period of 2001–2012 while rainfall showed an increasing trend. This model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and the dynamic effects of temperature and rainfall.

Conclusion

This study provided important data for the environmental protection of the basin area. And we hope to provide scientific analysis for controlling water and soil erosion, maintaining the sustainable productivity of land resources, enhancing the treatment of water pollution and stimulating the virtuous cycle of the ecological system.

Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world

Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized.

Contrasting environments shape thermal physiology across the spatial range of the sandhopper Talorchestia capensis

Integrating thermal physiology and species range extent can contribute to a better understanding of the likely effects of climate change on natural populations. Generally, broadly distributed species show variation in thermal physiology between populations. Within their distributional ranges, populations at the edges are assumed to experience more challenging environments than central populations (fundamental niche breadth hypothesis). We have investigated differences in thermal tolerance and thermal sensitivity under increasing/decreasing temperatures among geographically separated populations of the sandhopper Talorchestia capensis along the South African coasts. We tested whether the thermal tolerance and thermal sensitivity of T. capensis differ between central and marginal populations using a non-parametric constraint space analysis. We linked thermal sensitivity to environmental history by using historical climatic data to evaluate whether individual responses to temperature could be related to natural long-term fluctuations in air temperatures. Our results demonstrate that there were significant differences in the thermal response of T. capensis populations to both increasing/decreasing temperatures. Thermal sensitivity (for increasing temperatures only) was negatively related to temperature variability and positively related to temperature predictability. Two different models fitted the geographical distribution of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance. Our results confirm that widespread species show differences in physiology among populations by providing evidence of contrasting thermal responses in individuals subject to different environmental conditions at the limits of the species' spatial range. When considering the complex interactions between individual physiology and species ranges, it is not sufficient to consider mean environmental temperatures, or even temperature variability; the predictability of that variability may be critical.

Treeline dynamics in response to climate change in the Min Mountains, southwestern China

BACKGROUND

Abies faxoniana is the dominant plant species of the forest ecosystem on the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the treeline is strongly defined by climate. The tree-ring chronologies and age structure of Abies faxoniana were developed in the treeline ecotones on the northwestern and southeastern aspects of the Min Mountains in the Wanglang Nature Reserve to examine the treeline dynamics of recent decades in response to climate change.

RESULTS

On the northwestern aspect, correlation analysis showed that the radial growth was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in current January and monthly mean temperature in current April, but significantly and negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous August. On the southeastern aspect, the radial growth was significantly negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous July and August.

CONCLUSIONS

The different responses of radial growth to climatic variability on both the aspects might be mainly due to the micro-environmental conditions. The recruitment benefited from the warm temperature in current April, July and September on the northwestern aspect. The responses of radial growth and recruitment to climatic variability were similar on the northwestern slope. Recruitment was greatly restricted by competition with dense bamboos on the southeastern aspect.