Cost-effectiveness of volume computed tomography in lung cancer screening: a cohort simulation based on Nelson study outcomes

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening (LCS) with volume-based low-dose computed tomography (CT) versus no screening for an asymptomatic high-risk population in the United Kingdom (UK), utilising the long-term insights provided by the NELSON study, the largest European randomized control trial investigating LCS.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a decision tree and a state-transition Markov model to simulate the identification, diagnosis, and treatments for a lung cancer high-risk population, from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Eligible participants underwent annual volume CT screening and were compared to a cohort without the option of screening. Screen-detected lung cancers, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were predicted.

RESULTS

Annual volume CT screening of 1.3 million eligible participants resulted in 96,474 more lung cancer cases detected in early stage, and 73,825 fewer cases in late stage, leading to 53,732 premature lung cancer deaths averted and 421,647 QALYs gained, compared to no screening. The ICER was £5,455 per QALY. These estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of long-term survival data for lung cancer patients; deficiency in rigorous micro-costing studies to establish detailed treatment costs inputs for lung cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual LCS with volume-based low-dose CT for a high-risk asymptomatic population is cost-effective in the UK, at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY, representing an efficient use of NHS resources with substantially improved outcomes for lung cancer patients, as well as additional societal and economic benefits for society as a whole. These findings advocate evidence-based decisions for the potential implementation of a nationwide LCS in the UK.

Cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib compared with chemotherapy for treating previously treated advanced endometrial cancer in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib was recently approved for the treatment of advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma in women with disease progression on or following prior treatment with a platinum‑containing therapy in any setting, and who are not candidates for curative surgery or radiation (KEYNOTE-775/Study-309; NCT03517449). The objective was to assess the cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib compared with chemotherapy from a Swedish healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A lifetime partitioned-survival model with three health states (progression free, progressed disease, death) was constructed. Chemotherapy was represented by paclitaxel or doxorubicin. Overall survival, progression-free survival, time on treatment, and utility data were obtained from KEYNOTE-775 (database lock: March 1, 2022). Costs (in 2020 Swedish Krona [SEK]) included drug acquisition and administration, health state, end of life, adverse event management, subsequent treatment, and societal (scenario analysis). Outcomes were calculated as quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and life-years. Model results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for all-comers, patients with proficient mismatch repair tumors, and deficient mismatch repair tumors. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib is a cost-effective treatment when compared with chemotherapy, with estimated deterministic and probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of SEK 795,712 and 819,757 per QALY gained. Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib was associated with a large incremental QALY and life-year gain per person versus chemotherapy over the model time horizon (1.49 and 1.76).

LIMITATIONS

Time-to-event data were incomplete and semiparametric and parametric curves were utilized for lifetime extrapolation. Willingness-to-pay thresholds, costs, and utility weights vary by country, which would vary the treatment's cost effectiveness in different countries.

CONCLUSIONS

This partitioned survival analysis suggests that pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib is cost effective compared with chemotherapy in Sweden for women with advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma following previous systemic therapy. Results were robust to mismatch repair status and to changes in parameters/assumptions.

Benefits of MR-proADM-guided decision-making in the emergency department: clinical and economic evaluation in Italy, Germany, Spain, and the UK

AIM

In a randomized control trial mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM)-guided decision-making has been proven to safely reduce hospital admissions based on an accurate assessment of disease severity in the Emergency Department (ED). This study aimed to assess the impact of a MR-proADM-Guided Triage (MR-GT) versus standard Hospital Triage (HT) on clinical and economic outcomes in ED patients with suspected infection in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK, using Patient-Level Data (PLD) from two observational studies.

METHODS

PLD was collected from patients enrolled at a Spanish hospital during two observational studies. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of hospitalization. A patient-level simulation model was subsequently developed to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of MR-GT versus HT using results from the statistical analysis and country-specific cost data from the published literature. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventy-three patients were enrolled in this study. MR-proADM had the strongest association with hospital admission, followed by age and National Early Warning Score (NEWS). In the simulation model, MR-GT was associated with an overall reduction in unnecessary hospitalization relative to HT, equal to 22.6 percentage points (40.9% vs 63.5%). In addition, the use of MR-GT would reduce the total hospital cost per patient presenting to the ED with suspected infection by roughly 30%, with a mean cost saving per patient of €626, €1,484, €1,154, and £1,113 in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK respectively. The robustness of these findings was confirmed by sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

The statistical analyses were not performed on the same population simulated in the model. Clinical input parameters were assumed to be the same for all countries.

CONCLUSIONS

MR-proADM showed to be the main predictor of hospitalization. A MR-proADM decision algorithm provides cost savings in Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK.

The health and budget impact of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) increases both the patient risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and renal outcomes, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD). Recent clinical trials of the glucose-lowering drug-class of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) have shown benefits in preventing CVD events and progression of CKD, leading to an update of the Dutch T2DM treatment guideline for patients at risk. The aim of this study is to assess the health and economic impact of the guideline-recommended utilisation of SGLT2is in the Netherlands.

METHODS

The patient population at risk was determined by multiplying Dutch T2DM prevalence rates with the total numbers of inhabitants of the Netherlands in 2020. Subsequently, two analyses, comparing a treatment setting before and after implementation of the new guideline for SGLT2is, were conducted. Clinical and adverse event rates in both settings as well as direct healthcare costs were sourced from the literature. Total costs were calculated by multiplying disease prevalence, event rates and costs associated to outcomes. One-time disutilities per event were included to estimate the health impact. The potential health and economic impact of implementing the updated guideline was calculated.

RESULTS

Using a 5-year time horizon, the guideline-suggested utilisation of SGLT2is resulted in a health impact equal to 4,835 quality adjusted life years gained (0.0031 per patient per year) and €461 million cost-savings. The costs of treatment with SGLT2is were €813 million. Hence the net budget impact was €352 million for the total Dutch T2DM population, which translated to €0,57 per patient per day.

CONCLUSION

SGLT2is offer an option to reduce the number of CVD and CKD related events and associated healthcare costs and health losses in the Netherlands. Further research is needed to include the benefits of improved T2DM management options from a broader societal perspective.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab compared with chemotherapy in the US for women with previously treated deficient mismatch repair or high microsatellite instability unresectable or metastatic endometrial cancer

AIMS

There is limited published evidence for the cost-effectiveness of treatments for unresectable or metastatic endometrial cancer (mEC). The objective of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy for previously treated unresectable or mEC, in women whose tumors have deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) or high microsatellite instability (MSI-H). The analysis was carried out from a US healthcare payer perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A lifetime partitioned survival model comprising three health states (progression-free, progressed disease and death) was constructed. Chemotherapy was represented by single-agent paclitaxel or doxorubicin. Overall survival, progression-free survival and time on treatment data for pembrolizumab were obtained from a Phase II clinical study that included women with previously treated dMMR/MSI-H unresectable or mEC (KEYNOTE-158, NCT02628067). Survival data for chemotherapy were obtained from a published Phase III study for previously treated advanced endometrial cancer. Costs included were drug acquisition and administration, health-state, end-of-life, and adverse event management. Costs were presented in 2019 US$. Outcomes were calculated as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), using EQ-5D data from KEYNOTE-158. Model results were tested extensively in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Results demonstrated that pembrolizumab is a highly cost-effective treatment option when compared with chemotherapy, with estimated deterministic and probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $58,165 and $57,668 per QALY gained, respectively. Pembrolizumab was associated with a large QALY and life-year gain per person versus chemotherapy over the model time horizon (deterministic 4.68 life year gain, 3.80 QALYs), with the majority of QALYs accrued in the progression-free health state.

LIMITATIONS

The key limitation of the analysis was the lack of comparative effectiveness data for pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Pembrolizumab is a highly cost-effective treatment option when compared with chemotherapy for women with previously treated dMMR/MSI-H unresectable or mEC. Results were robust to the changes in parameters and assumptions explored.

Number needed to treat analysis applied to pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy for first-line treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer

AIMS

Considering that healthcare systems' financial resources are limited, we aimed to analyze the number needed to treat (NNT) and cost of preventing an event (COPE) related to drug use from Supplementary Health System (SSS) perspective.

METHODS

Data from KEYNOTE-189 (NCT02578680) were considered, comparing pembrolizumab + chemotherapy to chemotherapy alone. A cost-per-responder model was developed considering the 24- and 12-month time horizons for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) endpoints, respectively. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) and restricted mean time-on-treatment (ToT) were determined for NNT and COPE calculation. Costs were reported in American dollars (USD) and reflect those related to drug use. The analysis was conducted for the total indicated population, and an exploratory assessment was carried out for subgroups with different programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression levels.

RESULTS

Considering PFS data, the overall population NNT_RMST to prevent a progression event with pembrolizumab + chemotherapy versus chemotherapy was 2.63 (95%CI: 1.90-4.02) with an estimated COPE of 251,038 USD (95%CI: 181,359-383,717) in the 12-months follow-up. Regarding OS endpoint, overall NNT_RMST and COPE were 3.18 (95%CI: 2.20-5.31) and 414,163 (95%CI: 286,528-691,573) USD respectively, in the 24 months follow-up. The PFS NNT was lower with higher levels of PD-L1 expression (1.71, 3.22 and 5.53 for PD-L1 ≥ 50%, PD-L1 1%-49%, and PD-L1 < 1% groups, respectively), while there was no such apparent relationship for OS (3.23, 4.37 and 2.80 for PD-L1 ≥ 50%, PD-L1 1%-49%, and PD-L1 < 1% groups, respectively). The 95%CIs overlapped for PFS and OS NNT across the PD-L1 subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The magnitude of benefit of the pembrolizumab combination used for first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment to improve survival compared to chemotherapy alone was confirmed. The exploratory analysis from the SSS perspective suggests no differences among the PDL-1 subgroups in terms of clinical benefit or economic impact.

Oral semaglutide versus injectable glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: a cost of control analysis

Aims: The efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide, the first glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist developed for oral administration for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, was evaluated in the PIONEER clinical trial program, and a recently published network meta-analysis allowed comparison with further injectable GLP-1 receptor agonists. The present study aimed to assess the short-term cost- effectiveness of oral semaglutide 14 mg versus subcutaneous once-weekly dulaglutide 1.5 mg, once-weekly exenatide 2 mg, twice-daily exenatide 10 µg, once-daily liraglutide 1.8 mg, once-daily lixisenatide 20 µg, and once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg, in terms of the cost per patient achieving glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) targets (cost of control).Materials and methods: Cost of control was calculated by dividing the annual treatment costs associated with an intervention by the proportion of patients achieving the treatment target with an intervention, with outcomes calculated for targets of HbA1c ≤6.5% and HbA1c <7.0% for all included GLP-1 receptor agonists. Annual treatment costs were accounted in 2019 United States dollars (USD), based on 2019 wholesale acquisition cost.Results: For the treatment target of HbA1c ≤6.5%, once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg and oral semaglutide 14 mg were associated with the lowest costs of control, at USD 15,430 and USD 17,383 per patient achieving target, respectively. Similarly, the cost of control was lowest with once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg at USD 12,627 per patient achieving target, followed by oral semaglutide 14 mg at USD 13,493 per patient achieving target for the target of HbA1c <7.0%. All other interventions were associated with higher cost of control values for both targets.Conclusions: Oral semaglutide 14 mg is likely to be cost-effective versus dulaglutide, exenatide (once weekly and twice daily), liraglutide, and lixisenatide in terms of bringing people with type 2 diabetes to glycemic control targets of HbA1c ≤6.5% and HbA1c <7.0% in the US.

Cost-effectiveness model of abiraterone plus prednisone, cabazitaxel plus prednisone and enzalutamide for visceral metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer therapy after docetaxel therapy resistance

Aims: Among patients diagnosed with prostate cancer, 10-20% will develop castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) within 5 years; for 70%, CRPC will metastasize, mostly to the lungs and/or liver. We performed a cost-effectiveness model comparing abiraterone plus prednisone (ABI + PRD), cabazitaxel plus prednisone (CAB + PRD) and enzalutamide (ENZ) for visceral metastatic CRPC post-docetaxel therapy resistance. Methods: A three-state (Progression-Free, Progression, Death) lifetime Markov model was constructed to compare ABI + PRD, CAB + PRD, and ENZ from a United States healthcare payer perspective (2019 US$; discount rate 3%/yr.). Effectiveness was measured in life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Inputs included treatment costs, grade III/IV adverse events with incidence ≥5%, physician follow-up, lab and imaging tests. Phase III trial Kaplan-Meier curves were extrapolated to estimate overall survival and Progression-Free transition probabilities. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and utility ratios (ICURs), probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds were estimated. Results: Models estimated 3-year overall survival rates of 1.3% for patients treated with ABI + PRD, 16.2% for CAB + PRD, and 13.2% for ENZ. Estimated Progression-Free rates at 1.5 years were 0.51% for ABI + PRD, 0.27% for CAB + PRD, and 14.47% for ENZ. LYs and QALYs were 1.20 and 0.58 respectively for ABI + PRD, 1.48 and 0.56 for CAB + PRD, and 1.58 and 0.79 for ENZ. Total treatment costs were: $115,433 for ABI + PRD, $85,337 for CAB + PRD and $109,213 for ENZ. CAB + PRD and ENZ dominated ABI + PRD due to higher LYs gained. Incremental QALYs for ENZ vs. CAB + PRD were larger than incremental LYs. The ICUR for ENZ was $103,674/QALY compared to CAB + PRD. Conclusions: This analysis found ENZ provided greater LYs and QALYs than both ABI + PRD and CAB + PRD, at a lower cost than ABI + PRD, but at a higher cost compared to CAB + PRD. For patients with visceral mCRPC after docetaxel therapy resistance, ENZ was cost-effective 92% of the time with a WTP threshold of $100,000/QALY.