A CMIP6 multi-model based analysis of potential climate change effects on watershed runoff using SWAT model: A case study of kunhar river basin, Pakistan

The hydrological regimes of watersheds might be drastically altered by climate change, a majority of Pakistan's watersheds are experiencing problems with water quality and quantity as a result precipitation changes and temperature, necessitating evaluation and alterations to management strategies. In this study, the regional water security in northern Pakistan is examined about anthropogenic climate change on runoff in the Kunhar River Basin (KRB), a typical river in northern Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and flow durarion curve (FDC). Nine general circulation models (GCMs) were successfully utilized following bias correction under two latest IPCC shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. Correlation coefficients (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) are all above 0.75. The conclusions demonstrate that the SWAT model precisely simulates the runoff process in the KRB on monthly and daily timescales. For the two emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the mean annual precipitation is predicted to rise by 3.08 % and 5.86 %, respectively, compared to the 1980-2015 baseline. The forecasted rise in mean daily high temperatures is expected to range from 2.08 °C to 3.07 °C, while the anticipated increase in mean daily low temperatures is projected to fall within the range of 2.09 °C-3.39 °C, spanning the years 2020-2099. Under the two SSPs scenarios, annual runoff is estimated to increase by 5.47 % and 7.60 % due to climate change during the same period. Future socioeconomic growth will be supported by a sufficient water supply made possible by the rise in runoff. However, because of climate change, there is a greater possibility of flooding because of increases in both rainfall and runoff. As a result, flood control and development plans for KRB must consider the climate change's possible effects. There is a chance that the peak flow will move backwards relative to the baseline.

Modeling saltwater intrusion risk in the presence of uncertainty

The Mekong Delta is one of the most productive rice-producing regions in the world, exporting approximately one-fifth of the global rice traded annually. Previous studies note that saltwater intrusion is a serious concern, and the intensity of saltwater intrusion is primarily driven by sea level rise, land subsidence, anthropogenic sediment starvation, and upstream hydro-infrastructure developments. However, these studies often rely on scenario-based approaches instead of an integrated approach to assess the possible impacts of saltwater intrusion. Using an integrated hydrodynamic-statistical-economic model, we investigate how and the extent to which these drivers may impact the saltwater intrusion. We also examine the costs and returns of two popular saltwater intrusion control policies, i.e., hard-engineering structural and soft-land use planning. When comparing the baseline scenarios, the findings indicate that anthropogenic forces lead to a four times greater saltwater intrusion intensity than the climate change-induced sea level rise. The results further reveal a 50 % or less chance that annual saltwater-affected areas would exceed 1.93 million ha for the baseline, but the likelihood is highly likely to be 100 % with a sea level rising of 22 cm. Under the combined effects of sea-level rise, land subsidence, and riverbed incision, our model shows that the probability of annual saltwater-affected areas staying above 2.30 million ha is almost equal to one. This finding implies that a large share of the current rice-planted areas of the Delta could be wiped out of production for at least one season a year. The findings show that a combination of hard and soft policies would be a more sustainable and cost-effective strategy to lower the intensity and risks of saltwater intrusion. Therefore, there is an urgent need for better coordination of governance and investments among regions within the Delta and counties in the whole Mekong River Basin.

Impacts of LULC and climate changes on hydropower generation and development: A systematic review

There is a growing concern on a global scale that the world should transition towards the utilisation of energy-efficient technologies. Hydropower plays a very significant part in the fight against climate change, and as a result, it lessens the impact that climate changewill have on our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Both the effectiveness of hydropower generation and the amount of streamflow are impacted by climate change as well as land use and land cover (LULC). Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to conduct a literature review on the topic of the past and future effects of climate, land use, and land cover changes on hydropower generation. This review will be based on the entries found in a number of reliable databases. A systematic literature review was carried out to analyse how LULC and climate change will affect hydropower generation and development. The research was based on 158 pieces of relevant literature that had been reviewed by experts and indexed in Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect. The review was carried out to determine three goals in mind: the impact of climate change on hydropower generation and development; the impact of climate change on streamflow; and the combined impact of changes in climate and changes in LULC on hydropower. The findings bring to light the primary factors contributing to climate change as well as shifts in LULC which are essential to the generation of hydropower on all scales. The study identifies factors such as precipitation, temperature, floods, and droughts as examples of climate change. Deforestation, afforestation, and urbanisation are identified as the primary causes of changes in LULC over the past several decades. These changes have a negative impact on the generation and development of hydropower.

Hydropower development in the Himalaya: identifying critical river stretches

Two hydroelectric projects are operational in the upper and lower stretches of the river Alaknanda near Lambagarh and Srinagar that are respectively ~ 140 km apart. The health of the river ecosystem in the flowing stretches between and below these projects was bio-assessed, based on widely used diatom indices and van Dam ecologic values computed by OMNIDIA software. Samples were collected from Birahi (S3), the semi-natural stretch ~ 53 km downstream of the powerhouse, Narkota (S5), the impacted stretch ~ 27 km upstream Srinagar dam and Bagwan (S8), the highly regulated stretch ~ 22 km downstream Srinagar. IPS and IBD revealed mild pollution in the upper and lower stretch compared to relatively elevated pollution at S5. However, TDI indicates moderate organic pollution at S3 and S5, whereas the IDS/E indicates low degradation at all stations. The prevalence of tolerant N-autotroph, β-mesosprobe, mesotrophic, and aquatic to aerophilic categories of van Dam environmental variables indicate that a certain level of impact already persists due to organic-cum-nutrient load and perturbed flow regime. The prevalence of eutrophic and moderate O₂ categories shows that the ecosystem is in a critical state at S5, as also observed for species diversity. Based on the dominant categories, the river stretch was classified as "polyoxybiontic-cum-mesotrophic" at S3 and S8 while "moderate O₂-cum-eutrophic" at S5, implying higher organic and nutrient load in the river section at S5.

Conservation and restoration of riverine spawning habitats require fine-scale functional connectivity and functional heterogeneity

A severe extinction crisis of migratory fish caused by extensive hydropower development and climate change has attracted widespread environmental concern. Conserving and restoring riverine spawning habitat for migratory species is advantageous for population recovery. Depending on the reproductive characteristics of fish with adhesive eggs, functionally heterogeneous spawning habitats are required to support different stages of reproductive activity. However, few aquatic assessment models are available to consider the fine-scale functional connectivity between heterogeneous spawning habitats. This study developed a function-based framework that linked fine-scale functional connectivity modeling to habitat quality evaluations for the population recovery of migratory fish. The function path tree (FPT) model within the framework could identified the spatiotemporal dynamics of fine-scale connectivity patterns by emphasizing the attribute-dependence of patch arrangements. Here, we used the Chinese sturgeon, a well-known endangered anadromous fish producing adhesive eggs in the Yangtze River, as an example to demonstrate the applicability of the framework. Additionally, the ecological effectiveness of river restorations to overcome the detrimental influence of climate change on discharge decrease was also investigated. Compared to prior research, our methodology effectively enhanced the predictive performance of spatiotemporal distributions and quality assessments of spawning habitats. A strong correlation was discovered between the ecological profit indicator (HQI) and the estimated fecundity (R² = 0.941) and field-collected eggs (R² = 0.918). The minimum spawning discharge decreased from 8400 m³/s to 7000 m³/s by substrate restoration, with the optimal HQI growth rate of 52.7 % at Q < 8400 m³/s. This work will optimize long-term conservation for imperiled migratory species and help develop strategies to build resilience to ongoing environmental changes in flow-reduced rivers.

Epistemic community in transboundary river regime: a case study in the Mekong River Commission regarding mainstream hydropower development

Despite the importance of transboundary water management, cooperation mechanisms are limited, especially in the case of Mekong River basin where environmental and social aspects are threatened by recent anthropogenic pressures like hydropower development. Existing transboundary mechanism such as the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is challenged to facilitate the cooperation between riparian states. An epistemic community (EC) is considered to effectively influence international governance and is studied as part of transboundary river regimes. The existence of an MRC EC is part of that regime but understanding about its characteristics is yet limited. This research aims to fill in the gap by unraveling the main features of the EC in relation to hydropower development. We analyze shared causal beliefs and policy goals that developed in the EC framework of Haas applying literature review and semi-structured interviews of experts. Results show that the community experts share causal beliefs and policy goals only to a limited extent while disagreeing on many aspects. It resembles a "disciplined" or "professional" group rather than an EC. This suggests that the knowledge factor has not gained proper influence and attention in the region, resulting in incoherent policy advice leading to policymakers developing policies based on incomplete and fragmented knowledge. The role of the MRC in the decision-making process could become more relevant if it would facilitate the development of an EC. Bringing key stakeholders including policymakers and experts into a platform where policy goals and causal beliefs are facilitated to reach possible consensus is recommended. Narrowing the science-policy gap while acknowledging differences in interests and policy objectives is crucial to reach a sustainable transboundary management of the Mekong River given its rapid development, especially on hydropower.

River habitat assessment and restoration in high dam flood discharge systems with total dissolved gas supersaturation

The success of river habitat restoration relies on accurate assessment proxies. However, determining how to quantitatively assess the impact of multiple stressors during flood discharge from high dams in riverine ecosystems and where and how to implement more reliable recovery interventions remain challenges. Here, we developed a bottom-up mechanistic framework for assessing the effects of total dissolved gas supersaturation (TDGS) and hydrodynamics on fish habitat quality and applied it to the downstream river reach of the Xiangjiaba Dam in Southwest China. The results showed that the available habitat area of river sturgeon was the smallest, while Chinese sucker had the largest available habitat area among the three target species under all discharge scenarios. Although the TDGS levels were evenly mixed laterally, the habitat suitability index indicated that the suitable habitats were primarily within both sides of the river reach under all scenarios, which is contrary to findings based on the traditional TDGS risk assessment model. The traditional TDGS risk assessment model overestimates the impact of dams on habitats. This divergence reflected the sensitivity of the habitat assessment to fish habitat preferences, fish tolerance to TDGS and the biological response of fish under TDGS. Additionally, the priority areas for restoration can be identified by habitat suitability index with lower values. We simulated twenty-four schemes and found that interventions such as stone groups, ecological spur dike, water-retaining weir and river dredging can enhance habitat suitability for fish species under multiple stressors, providing novel insights into where and how to mitigate the impact of TDGS. Our findings offer a transferable framework for the quantitative evaluation of fish habitat and implementation of restoration management during dam flood discharge periods, thus providing a new perspective for biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration in dam-regulated rivers with TDGS around the world.

A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin - The case of the upper Indus

Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the water-energy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the status-quo technological and economic criterions to guide policymakers in hydropower development decisions in the Indus and beyond. Future work will implement the framework to quantify the different hydropower potential classes and explore adaptation pathways to balance SDG7 with the other interlinked SDGs in the Indus.

Linking bait and feeding opportunities to fish foraging habitat for the assessment of environmental flows and river restoration

The survival of aquatic biota in different life history stages depends on food availability, water quantity and specific hydrological conditions, and is particularly susceptible in degraded rivers due to the development of hydropower or are sensitive to climate change. Habitats with limited food availability and restricted feeding opportunities can strongly affect the habitat carrying capacity and fish growth with consequences for spawning. Few environmental flow regime frameworks are available that closely link bait and feeding opportunities to fish foraging habitat. In addition, river restoration has been widely implemented to resolve the conflict between ecological demand and power generation benefits. Nevertheless, whether in-stream structures are still suitable for the joint operation of foraging and spawning habitats remains unclear. In this study, a framework to integrate the requirements of both spawning and foraging habitats into environmental flow regime assessments was proposed by coupling the bait supply, fish spawning and fish feeding opportunities. Here, we used the Batang Reservoir, located in the Tibetan Plateau, as an example to determine the environmental flow regimes. The environmental flow regimes during Periods I, II and III for the conservation of the life history stages of Schizothorax dolichonem were determined, which provided high-quality food and was beneficial for increasing the probability of restoration success. After the implementation of measures, the ecological base flow rate decreased from 171.80 m³/s, 206.00 m³/s and 257.70 m³/s to 138.00 m³/s, 206.00 m³/s and 206.00 m³/s in Periods I, II and III, respectively. We concluded that traditional river restoration with the use of in-stream structures is still suitable for the joint operation of spawning and foraging habitats, but the design selection and placement of in-stream structures should be preoptimized. The framework proposed will help managers evaluate habitat conservation to protect degraded rivers or help develop strategies to build resilience to climate change.

Interplay of geomorphology and hydrology drives macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to hydropeaking

Hydropeaking leads to major anthropogenic disturbance of river networks worldwide. Flow variations imposed by hydropeaking may significantly affect macroinvertebrate assemblages within the river network. As such, the responses of macroinvertebrate assemblages to hydropeaking are expected to be complex and vary across spatial and temporal scales as well as ecological organization levels. To unpack this complexity, we assessed the interplay of geomorphic and hydrological variables as drivers of the responses of macroinvertebrate assemblages to hydropeaking. Specifically, we studied different levels of ecological organization of macroinvertebrate assemblages in two functional process zones (FPZs; Sub-Andean and Central Valley Gravel Dominated) subjected to different flow management in two Chilean Andean river networks. Hydropeaking caused significant reduction of macroinvertebrate abundances in both FPZs and at all ecological organization levels with the exception of one feeding guild (scrapers). Furthermore, the response of macroinvertebrate assemblage variance was stronger in the Central Valley Gravel Dominated FPZ. Both geomorphic and hydrological variables influenced macroinvertebrate assemblage responses. However, the effects of the principal geomorphic variables operated at valley (meso) spatial scale and the main hydrological variables operated at the sub-daily (micro) temporal scale. Therefore, to minimise the effects of hydropeaking on macroinvertebrate assemblages, flow management should consider reduction of sub-daily variability. Furthermore, placement of new barriers should take into account not only their position within the river network but also their effects downstream that strongly depend on characteristics of river valley.

Two new species of Japalura (Squamata: Agamidae) from the Hengduan Mountain Range, China

Until recently, the agamid species, Japalura flaviceps, was recognized to have the widest geographic distribution among members of the genus occurring in China, from eastern Tibet to Shaanxi Province. However, recent studies restricted the distribution of J. flaviceps to the Dadu River valley only in northwestern Sichuan Province, suggesting that records of J. flaviceps outside the Dadu River valley likely represent undescribed diversity. During two herpetofaunal surveys in 2013 and 2015, eight and 12 specimens of lizards of the genus Japalura were collected from the upper Nujiang (=Salween) Valley in eastern Tibet, China, and upper Lancang (=Mekong) Valley in northwestern Yunnan, China, respectively. These specimens display a unique suite of diagnostic morphological characters. Our robust comparisons of phenotype reveal that these populations can be distinguished readily from J. flaviceps and all other recognized congeners. Herein, we describe the two Japalura lineages as new species, Japalura laeviventris sp. nov. and Japalura iadina sp. nov.. In addition, we provide updated conservation assessments for the new species as well as imperiled congeners according to the IUCN criteria for classification, discuss the importance of color patterns in the diagnosis and description of species in the genus Japalura, and discuss directions for future taxonomic studies of the group.