Burden of undiagnosed depression among older adults in India: a population based study

BACKGROUND

The study explored the levels and associated factors of undiagnosed depression among community-dwelling older Indian adults. It also identified the socio-demographic predictors of undiagnosed depression among the study population at national and state levels.

METHODS

The study employed data from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India wave-I, 2017-18. Based on the data on depression from interviewee's self-reporting and measurement on Composite International Diagnostic Interview- Short Form (CIDI-SF) and Centre for Epidemiological Studies- Depression scale (CES-D) scales, we estimated undiagnosed depression among older adults (age 60+). We estimated multivariable binary logistic regressions to examine the socio-demographic and health-related predictors of undiagnosed depression among older adults.

FINDINGS

8% (95% CI: 7.8-8.4) of the total older adults had undiagnosed depression on CIDI-SF scale and 5% (95% CI: 4.8-5.3) on the combined CIDI-SF and CES-D. Undiagnosed depression was higher among those who were widowed, worked in the past and currently not working, scheduled castes, higher educated and the richest. Lack of health insurance coverage, presence of any other physical or mental impairment, family history of Alzheimer's/Parkinson's disease/ psychotic disorder, lower self-rated health and poor life satisfaction were significant predictors of undiagnosed depression on both CIDI-SF and combined scales.

CONCLUSION

To improve the health of older adults in India, targeted policy efforts integrating mental health screening, awareness campaigns and decentralization of mental healthcare to primary level is needed. Further research could explore the causal factors behind different levels of undiagnosed depression.

Comparative analysis of health status and health service utilization patterns among rural and urban elderly populations in Hungary: a study on the challenges of unhealthy aging

The demographic transition poses a significant challenge for health systems, especially in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, where the healthcare needs of aging populations are on the rise. This study aimed to describe and compare the health status and utilization of health services among the elderly residing in urban and rural areas of the most deprived region in Hungary. A comprehensive health survey was conducted in 2022, involving a randomly selected sample of 443 older adults (≥ 65 years) in Northeast Hungary. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, education, financial status, chronic diseases, and activity limitations were used to investigate the association between type of residence and health service use. Among the study participants, 62.3% were female, 38.3% attained primary education, 12.5% reported a bad or very bad financial situation and 52.6% lived in urban areas. Overall, 24% of the elderly rated their health as very good or good (27.8% in urban and 19.7% in rural areas), while 57.8% (52.6% and 63.5% in urban and rural areas) reported limitations in daily activities. Compared to urban residents, rural residents reported lower rates of dentist visits (p = 0.006), specialist visits (p = 0.028), faecal occult blood testing (p < 0.001), colorectal cancer screening with colonoscopy (p = 0.014), and breast cancer screening (p = 0.035), and a higher rate of blood pressure measurement (p = 0.042). Multivariable models indicated that urban residence was positively associated with faecal occult blood testing (OR = 2.32, p = 0.014), but negatively associated with blood pressure (OR = 0.42, p = 0.017) and blood glucose measurements (OR = 0.48, p = 0.009). These findings highlight the influence of residence on health service utilization among older adults in Hungary. Further comprehensive studies are needed to better understand the health needs of the elderly population and to develop policies aimed at promoting healthy aging in CEE countries.

Universal health coverage in the context of population ageing: catastrophic health expenditure and unmet need for healthcare

BACKGROUND

Universal health coverage means that all people can access essential health services without incurring financial hardship. Even in countries with good service coverage and financial protection, the progress towards universal health coverage may decelerate or be limited with respect to the growing older population. This study investigates the incidence/prevalence, determinants, and consequences of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and unmet need for healthcare and assesses the potential heterogeneity between younger (≤ 64 years) and older people (65 years≤).

METHODS

Utilising an annual nationally representative survey of Japanese aged 20 years and over, we estimated the incidence of CHE and unmet need for healthcare using disaggregated estimates by household members' age (i.e. ≤64 years vs. 65 years≤) between 2004 and 2020. Using a fixed-effects model, we assessed the determinants of CHE and unmet need along with the consequences of CHE. We also assessed the heterogeneity by age.

RESULTS

Households with older members were more likely to have their healthcare needs met but experienced CHE more so than households without older members. The financial consequences of CHE were heterogeneous by age, suggesting that households with older members responded to CHE by reducing food and social expenditures more so than households without older members reducing expenditure on education. Households without older members experienced an income decline in the year following the occurrence of CHE, while this was not found among households with older members. A U-shaped relationship was observed between age and the probability of experiencing unmet healthcare need.

CONCLUSIONS

Households with older members are more likely to experience CHE with different financial consequences compared to those with younger members. Unmet need for healthcare is more common among younger and older members than among their middle-aged counterparts. Different types and levels of health and financial support need to be incorporated into national health systems and social protection policies to meet the unique needs of individuals and households.

Population ageing and sustainability of healthcare financing in China

BACKGROUND

In China, the healthcare financing structure involves multiple parties, including the government, society and individuals. Medicare Fund is an important way for the Government and society to reduce the burden of individual medical costs. However, with the aging of the population, the demand of Medicare Fund is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure in the context of population ageing.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to organize the characteristics of population ageing as well as healthcare financing in China. On this basis, it analyzes the impact mechanism of population ageing on healthcare financing and the sustainability of existing healthcare financing.

METHODS

This paper mainly adopts the method of literature research and inductive summarization. Extracting data from Health Statistics Yearbook of China and Labor and Social Security Statistics Yearbook of China. Collected about 60 pieces of relevant literature at home and abroad.

RESULTS

China has already entered a deeply ageing society. Unlike developed countries in the world, China's population ageing has distinctive feature of ageing before being rich. A healthcare financing scheme established by China, composing of the government, society, and individuals, is reasonable. However, under the pressure of population ageing, China's current healthcare financing scheme will face enormous challenges. Scholars are generally pessimistic about the sustainability of China's healthcare financing scheme.

CONCLUSIONS

Population ageing will increase the expenditure and reduce the income of the Medicare Fund. This will further affect the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure. As a consequence, the state should pay particular attention to this issue and take action to ensure that the Fund continues to operate steadily.

Impact of informal caregiving on caregivers' subjective well-being in China: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

While informal caregiving is crucial for improving and maintaining health of the elderly, there is limited evidence of its potential effect on caregivers' wellbeing. Understanding this effect is important for policy makers to design effective long-term care policies. This longitudinal study aims to investigate the impact of informal caregiving on caregivers' subjective wellbeing in China.

METHODS

Three waves (2016, 2018, 2020) of data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) are constructed for empirical analysis. Ordered logit model is first used to estimate the effect. Fixed effects ordered logit model and mixed effects ordered logit model are further employed to control for the possible bias from unobserved individual heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Informal caregiving significantly reduces caregivers' subjective wellbeing and the negative effect is stronger for high-frequency caregivers. Subgroup analysis reveals that informal caregiving imposed greater negative impacts on women, those living in rural areas, being married, working, and living separately from parents. Further analysis of mechanism indicates that decrease in wage income, leisure and sleep time were channels through which informal caregiving affects caregivers' well-being.

CONCLUSION

When policy makers formulate sustainable long-term care policies and home support services, interventions to improve caregivers' stress-coping skills and ensure their engagement in leisure and social activities could be adopted to mitigate the negative effects on caregivers' subjective well-being.

Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality

BACKGROUND

Increasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections.

METHODS

Using longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost.

RESULTS

As the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is ageing, but to a larger degree for influenza than for SARS-CoV-2 due to differential age-specific attack rates. Nevertheless, the number of deaths and QALY losses per 1,000 people is increasing for both infections and at a speed influenced by the share living in LTCFs.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing is associated with smaller outbreaks of COVID-19 and influenza, but at the same time it is causing a substantially larger burden of mortality, even if the proportion of LTCF residents were to decrease. These relationships are influenced by age patterns in epidemiological parameters. Not only the shift in the age distribution, but also the induced changes in the household structures are important to consider when assessing the potential impact of population ageing on the transmission and burden of emerging respiratory infections.

Alike but also different: a spatiotemporal analysis of the older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin provinces, China

According to the 7th National Population Census, China is experiencing rapid growth of its ageing population, with large spatial disparities in the distribution of older folks in different regions. And yet, scant comparative research has been conducted on the two regions of Zhejiang and Jilin in particular, which differ considerably in economic development but witness nearly the same ageing trend. In response, this article compares Zhejiang, an advanced economic province, with Jilin, with its relatively low level of economic development, to explore the ageing issue and analyse the spatial correlation between older populations and socioeconomic factors. Using the spatiotemporal data analysis and geographical detector approaches, we obtain three significant findings: 1. both provinces have maintained steady rates of increase in ageing; 2. the older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin are mostly concentrated in the provincial capitals and nearby cities with reasonably established economies; and 3. the factors, including local fiscal expenditures, beds in hospitals and nursing homes, and coverage of social security, show a highly similar spatial pattern between older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin. The q-values of all the selected socioeconomic factors in Jilin showed a growth trend, indicating that the spatial correlation between these factors and ageing is strengthening year on year, that is, the resources gained from the socioeconomic development of Jilin have shifted steadily toward old-age services. As a consequence, a vicious circle of the slowing down of the economic growth drives away working forces and quickens the pace of population ageing, is present. From a policy perspective, Jilin province is strongly dependent on state-owned enterprises characterised by institutional rigidity, an inflexible market economy and an under-developed private sector, all of which are profoundly influenced by ageing. The consequence is large population outflows of young people. In contrast, the economy of Zhejiang province is partially decoupled from the ageing trend, so the gap in level of development between its counties has been narrowing. The policy implication here is that Zhejiang represents an active private economy that has coped successfully with ageing by attracting young migrants and developing new forms of development, such as the digital economy.

Spatio-temporal pattern, matching level and prediction of ageing and medical resources in China

OBJECTIVE

Population ageing, as a hot issue in global development, increases the burden of medical resources in society. This study aims to assess the current spatiotemporal evolution and interaction between population ageing and medical resources in mainland China; evaluate the matching level of medical resources to population ageing; and forecast future trends of ageing, medical resources, and the indicator of ageing-resources (IAR).

METHODS

Data on ageing (EPR) and medical resources (NHI, NBHI, and NHTP) were obtained from China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook (2011-2020). We employed spatial autocorrelation to examine the spatial-temporal distribution trends and analyzed the spatio-temporal interaction using a Bayesian spatio-temporal effect model. The IAR, an improved evaluation indicator, was used to measure the matching level of medical resources to population ageing with kernel density analysis for visualization. Finally, an ETS-DNN model was used to forecast the trends in population ageing, medical resources, and their matching level over the next decade.

RESULTS

The study found that China's ageing population and medical resources are growing annually, yet distribution is uneven across districts. There is a spatio-temporal interaction effect between ageing and medical resources, with higher levels of both in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The IAR is relatively high in Northwest, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta, but showed a declining trend in North China and the Yangtze River Delta. The hybrid model (ETS-DNN) gained an R2 of 0.9719, and the predicted median IAR for 2030 (0.99) across 31 regions was higher than the median IAR for 2020 (0.93).

CONCLUSION

This study analyzes the relationship between population ageing and medical resources, revealing a spatio-temporal interaction between them. The IAR evaluation indicator highlights the need to address ageing population challenges and cultivate a competent health workforce. The ETS-DNN forecasts indicate higher concentrations of both medical resources and ageing populations in eastern China, emphasizing the need for region-specific ageing security systems and health service industries. The findings provide valuable policy insights for addressing a hyper-aged society in the future.

Relationship of frailty status with health resource use and healthcare costs in the population aged 65 and over in Catalonia

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome with repercussions on health, disability, and dependency.

OBJECTIVES

To assess health resource use and costs attributable to frailty in the aged population.

METHODS

A population-based observational longitudinal study was performed, with follow-up from January 2018 to December 2019. Data were obtained retrospectively from computerized primary care and hospital medical records. The study population included all inhabitants aged ≥ 65 years ascribed to 3 primary care centres in Barcelona (Spain). Frailty status was established according to the Electronic Screening Index of Frailty. Health costs considered were hospitalizations, emergency visits, outpatient visits, day hospital sessions, and primary care visits. Cost analysis was performed from a public health financing perspective.

RESULTS

For 9315 included subjects (age 75.4 years, 56% women), frailty prevalence was 12.3%. Mean (SD) healthcare cost in the study period was €1420.19 for robust subjects, €2845.51 for pre-frail subjects, €4200.05 for frail subjects, and €5610.73 for very frail subjects. Independently of age and sex, frailty implies an additional healthcare cost of €1171 per person and year, i.e., 2.25-fold greater for frail compared to non-frail.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underline the economic relevance of frailty in the aged population, with healthcare spending increasing as frailty increases.

Towards digital healthy ageing: the case of Agatha and priorities moving forward

Digital tools have an important role to play in meeting the health demands of ageing societies. However, current technological design paradigms often marginalize older people. We adopted a lean, user-centred approach to prototype the Avatar for Global Access to Technology for Healthy Ageing (Agatha), an interactive one-stop shop for healthy ageing promotion. Building on this experience, we present a vision for an integrated approach to "digital healthy ageing". Older people consulted predominantly associated "healthy ageing" with disease avoidance. Digital healthy ageing should take a more holistic approach, covering self-care, prevention, and active ageing. It should also consider social determinants of health in old age, including access to information and digital health literacy, as they interact with poverty, education, access to health services and other structural factors. We use this framework to map out key areas of innovation and explore policy priorities and opportunities for innovation practitioners.

The impact of global, regional, and national population ageing on disability-adjusted life years and deaths associated with diabetes during 1990-2019: A global decomposition analysis

AIMS

To understanding the net regional, national, and economic effect of global population ageing on diabetes and its trends during 1990 and 2019 worldwide.

METHODS

We employed a decomposition method to estimate the impact of population ageing on diabetes-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and total deaths in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national level. This method separated the net effect of population ageing from population growth and changes in mortality.

RESULTS

Globally, population ageing has become the major contributor to diabetes-related deaths since 2013. The increases in diabetes-related deaths attributed to population ageing exceeding the decreases in mortality change. Population ageing produced an additional 0.42 million diabetes-related deaths and 14.95 million DALYs from 1990 to 2019. At the regional level, population ageing is associated with the increases in diabetes-related deaths in 18 out of 22 regions. The highest increase in diabetes-related deaths attributed to population ageing occurred in men in East Asia (136.31%) and women in Central Latin America (118.58%). The proportion of diabetes-related deaths and DALYs attributable to population ageing showed a bell-shaped relationship with sociodemographic index (SDI) and peaked at high-middle-SDI countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreases in diabetes-related deaths attributed to mortality change exceeded the increases attributed to population ageing between 1990 and 2019 globally and regionally. The diabetes-related deaths in high-middle-SDI countries were most impacted by population ageing.

Impacts of the population ageing on the effects of the nationwide emission trading scheme in China

Nowadays, population ageing is a common social phenomenon that occurs worldwide. Rapid ageing may have profound socioeconomic impacts, and thus it may influence effects of climate policy. Nevertheless, very few previous researchers have evaluated climate policy in an ageing society. In this paper, we attempt to narrow the research gap by incorporating ageing impact in climate policy evaluation. Specifically, we have modeled ageing impacts on labor supply, household electricity consumption, and health expenditure. The core of the research framework in this paper is a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The model results show that population ageing tends to decrease private health expenditure but increase governmental health expenditure. In contrast, Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) decreases both private and governmental health expenditure. Both population ageing and ETS decrease labor employment, employment rate, GDP, and carbon emissions. The results imply that population ageing lays heavy burdens on social healthcare system, whilst climate policy reduces governmental health expenditure. In ageing societies, mitigation targets can be achieved less costly and more easily through implementing ETS.

Effect of biomass burning on premature mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia

The health burden from exposure to ambient fine particulates (PM_2.5) in Equatorial Asia is substantially affected by the peatland fires in Indonesia, but the long-term health effect of the fires on local inhabitants is unclear. In this study, PM_2.5-associated excess mortality in Equatorial Asia over the past 30 years (1990-2019) was estimated and then the health effect of biomass burning was identified. The PM_2.5-related death in Equatorial Asia almost tripled from 113 (95% confidence interval, 100-125) thousand in 1990 to 337 (300-373) thousand in 2019, with a rate of increase of 6.4 (6.2-6.9) thousand/yr. The intense biomass burning between 1990 and 2019 was estimated to have induced 317 (282-348) thousand excess deaths in the study regions, with excess deaths mainly occurring in the El Niño years, such as in 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2019. Although the remote sensing data and emission inventories both reveal that the effective control measures have reduced biomass burning intensity in Equatorial Asia (especially in Sumatra and Borneo), the corresponding health benefit has been offset by variations in demographic factors, i.e., population and age structure. Over the same period, fossil fuel emissions continued to increase rapidly. Thus, more stringent and ambitious policies are required to reduce the health burden from biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions simultaneously to maximize the health benefits from government measures and policies.

What interventions and programmes are available to support older nurses in the workplace? A literature review of available evidence

BACKGROUND

High exit rates, stalling entry rates, population ageing, and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic have placed significant strain on the world's nursing workforce. Both developed and developing countries face similar predicaments. Evidence-based programmes to support older nurses in the workplace are urgently needed to ensure the sustainability of a career in nursing for this group of healthcare professionals.

OBJECTIVES

To scope and synthesise available evidence on evaluated programmes and interventions implemented to support the ageing nursing workforce's health, wellbeing, and retention.

DESIGN

A literature review of available evidence using a systematic approach.

METHOD

Medline, Scopus, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched for relevant peer-reviewed evidence. Data from the peer-reviewed literature were extracted separately into purpose designed-extraction spreadsheets. Information relevant to study design, intervention design, outcome constructs, intervention outcomes, and barriers and enablers to intervention success were collected. The protocol for this review was registered in PROSPERO [CRD42021274491].

RESULTS

Eighteen published studies were included in this review. We identified a range of interventions and programmes that have been implemented to support older nurses, which included flexible and reduced work arrangements, mentoring programmes, exercise and lifestyle interventions, continued professional development and purpose-designed remote retreats. We found limited evidence of evaluated outcomes from workplace support interventions that addresses the actual challenges faced by ageing nurses as reported in previous literature reviews. Interventions that were designed to promote a sense of purpose at work resulted in positive outcomes and appeared to more directly address the stated needs of older nurses. Holistic programmes and interventions that could potentially promote both physical well-being and psychological well-being required a broader, whole-of-organisation approach rather than more piecemeal interventions addressing individual physical and mental health concerns. Interventions which acknowledged older nurses' clinical expertise and experience (e.g., mentoring programmes) were linked to positive outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Future intervention efforts should acknowledge and balance intervention participation opportunities against existing everyday workload constraints faced by older nurses. Our review suggests the need for further intervention studies assessing specific outcomes such as psychological and emotional health, as well as interventions that more directly address the most pressing concerns that ageing nurses report at personal and organisational levels. A paradigm shift in productivity measurement in clinical nursing work is required in order to increase the value placed on the unique contribution of older nurses working clinically, particularly in sharing their acquired knowledge, skill, and expertise.

Improving economic security for older persons by public pension schemes: evidence from National Transfer Accounts for India

This paper develops a framework for analysis of distribution related policy issues (i.e. inequality, poverty and inequity) for ensuring economic security for India's older persons by the public old-age pension systems with special reference to Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS). The analysis is focused on (a) measurement of age-specific and intra-generational inequity by Lifecycle Deficit in the framework of National Transfer Accounts (NTA), (b) relationship between this inequity and poverty and inequalities in distribution of income and consumption and (c) role of current public funded IGNOAPS to improving economic security or reducing inequity for the elderly generation. The entire analysis is based on the benchmark year 2004-05 and a comparative analysis between 2004-05 and 2011-12. Main results show (a) remarkable age and intra-generational patterns for the older persons in labour income, consumption, income and consumption inequalities, consumption poverty and inequality-adjusted inequity and (b) efficacy of poverty-linked universal IGNOAPS to improve economic security or reducing the inequity for the older persons at a national cost of less than 0.20% of total revenue or consumption expenditure of Government of India. These results offer empirical evidence for design and implementation of redistributive policies for the older persons by integrating the objectives of reduction in economic inequalities, poverty and inequity. Such policies have wider implications for attainment of select UN-SDG goals, especially goals related to age-specific reduction in poverty and inequalities. The approach, results and implications of this paper are of general relevance for other developing countries in Asia and Africa if their economic policies aim at improving economic security of the older person in the framework of NTA methodology.

Decadal changes in premature mortality associated with exposure to outdoor PM2.5 in mainland Southeast Asia and the impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions

In mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), a rapid increase of fossil fuel consumption and massive particulate matter emissions from biomass burning (BB) are severely threatening the health of local inhabitants. In this study, surface PM2.5 data, satellite fire observations and emission inventories were integrated with the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to estimate premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure from 1990 through 2019 and to explore and quantify the health burden associated with BB and anthropogenic emissions in mainland SEA. BB in mainland SEA has remained intense over the past decades. Owing to a lack of effective control measures, emission inventory and satellite-observed data both showed that BB has markedly intensified in several regions, including northern Cambodia and northern Laos. The multiannual average (1997-2015) BB PM2.5 emission was 1.6 × 106 t/yr, which is much higher than that of anthropogenic (fossil fuel combustion) PM2.5 emission. GEMM results indicated that PM2.5-related premature mortality in mainland SEA more than doubled from 100 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 88-112) thousand in 1990 to 257 (95 % CI, 228-286) thousand in 2019. Decomposition analysis revealed that variations in population size and age structure also promoted this increase of PM2.5-related deaths. Given that mainland SEA is a rapidly developing region, it is expected that local public health will face increasing challenges due to population growth, population ageing, and increased anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, it is imperative for policymakers to consider these influential factors, set practical mitigation targets, and explore how to effectively and systematically combine BB with anthropogenic emission controls to maximize the health benefits.

Optimising the selection of outcomes for healthy ageing trials: a mixed methods study

Advancing age is associated with chronic diseases which are the largest cause of death and disability in developed countries. With increasing life expectancy and an ageing population, there is a need to conduct trials to extend healthy ageing, including targeting biological ageing processes, and prevent ageing-related diseases. The main objectives of the study are as follows: (i) to review outcome measures utilised in healthy ageing trials focusing on pharmacological therapies, nutritional supplements and medical devices; (ii) to summarise the views of key stakeholders on outcome selection for healthy ageing trials. An analysis of records from the Clinicaltrials.gov database pertaining to healthy ageing trials from inception to May 2022 was conducted. In addition, the findings of a workshop attended by key stakeholders at the 2022 annual UKSPINE conference were qualitatively analysed. Substantial heterogeneity was found in the interventions evaluated and the outcomes utilised by the included studies. Recruitment of participants with diverse backgrounds and the confounding effects of multi-morbidity in older adults were identified as the main challenges of measuring outcomes in healthy ageing trials by the workshop participants. The development of a core outcome set for healthy ageing trials can aid comparability across interventions and within different settings. The workshop provided an important platform to garner a range of perspectives on the challenges with measuring outcomes in this setting. It is critical to initiate such discussions to progress this field and provide practical answers to how healthy ageing trials are designed and structured in the future.

Research to inform health systems' responses to rapid population ageing: a collection of studies funded by the WHO Centre for Health Development in Kobe, Japan

Population ageing is a global phenomenon that has profound implications for all aspects of health systems development. Research is needed to understand and improve the health system response to this demographic shift, especially in low- and middle-income countries where the change is happening rapidly. This Supplement was organized by the WHO Centre for Health Development in Kobe, Japan (WHO Kobe Centre) whose mission is to promote innovation and research for equitable and sustainable universal health coverage considering the impacts of population ageing. The Supplement features 10 papers all based on studies that were funded by the WHO Kobe Centre in recent years. The studies involve a diverse set of 10 countries in the Asia Pacific (Cambodia, Japan, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam); address various aspects of the health system including service delivery, workforce development and financing; and utilize a wide range of research methods, including economic modelling, household surveys and intervention evaluations. This introductory article offers a brief description of each study's methods, key findings and implications. Collectively, the studies demonstrate the potential contribution that health systems research can make toward addressing the challenges of ensuring sustainable universal health coverage even while countries undergo rapid population ageing.

Can healthy ageing moderate the effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia? A modelling study

BACKGROUND

 Population ageing will accelerate rapidly in Mongolia in the coming decades. We explore whether this is likely to have deleterious effects on economic growth and health spending trends and whether any adverse consequences might be moderated by ensuring better health among the older population.

METHODS

 Fixed-effects models are used to estimate the relationship between the size of the older working-age population (55-69 years) and economic growth from 2020 to 2100 and to simulate how growth is modified by better health among the older working-age population, as measured by a 5% improvement in years lived with disability. We next use 2017 data on per capita health spending by age from the National Health Insurance Fund to project how population ageing will influence public health spending from 2020 to 2060 and how this relationship may change if the older population (≥ 60 years) ages in better or worse health than currently.

RESULTS

 The projected increase in the share of the population aged 55-69 years is associated with a 4.1% slowdown in per-person gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2020 and 2050 and a 5.2% slowdown from 2020 to 2100. However, a 5% reduction in disability rates among the older population offsets these effects and adds around 0.2% to annual per-person GDP growth in 2020, rising to nearly 0.4% per year by 2080. Baseline projections indicate that population ageing will increase public health spending as a share of GDP by 1.35 percentage points from 2020 to 2060; this will occur slowly, adding approximately 0.03 percentage points to the share of GDP annually. Poorer health among the older population (aged ≥ 60 years) would see population ageing add an additional 0.17 percentage points above baseline estimates, but healthy ageing would lower baseline projections by 0.18 percentage points, corresponding to potential savings of just over US$ 46 million per year by 2060.

CONCLUSIONS

 Good health at older ages could moderate the potentially negative effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia. Continued investment in the health of older people will improve quality of life, while also enhancing the sustainability of public budgets.

Assessment of cognitive function among adults aged ≥ 60 years using the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale: cross-sectional study, Lao People's Democratic Republic

BACKGROUND

Rapid population ageing remains an important concern for health, social and economics systems; thus, a broader assessment of cognitive decline among adults aged ≥ 60 years is essential. It is important to regularly collect reliable data through validated and affordable methods from people living in different areas and in different circumstances to better understand the significance of this health problem. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of cognitive impairment and the related risk factors by reassessing the scoring of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale among older adults in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional investigation was conducted in rural and urban settings in six districts of three provinces in the country from January to July 2020. In total, 2206 individuals aged 60-98 years (1110 men and 1096 women) were interviewed in person using a pretested Lao version of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale and the WHO STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factor surveillance (the STEPS survey tool). The adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using a logistic model.

RESULTS

The study found that 49.3% (1088/2206) of respondents (39.7% [441/1110] of men and 59.0% [647/1096] of women) had scores associated with some level of cognitive impairment. In addition to age, the following factors were significantly associated with cognitive impairment: having no formal education (AOR = 9.5; 95% CI: 5.4 to 16.8, relative to those with a university education), living in the northern region of the country (AOR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.9, relative to living in the central region), living in a rural area (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.8), needing assistance with self-care (AOR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.7) and being underweight (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2). Factors associated with no cognitive impairment among older adults include engaging in moderate-intensity physical activity lasting for 10 minutes and up to 1 hour (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.8) and for > 1 hour (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Using the Lao version of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale, this study found that more than half of adults aged ≥ 60 years had cognitive impairment, and this impairment was associated with several risk factors. The limitations of this study may include possible overdetection due to the cutoff point for the assessment of cognitive decline used in the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale, given that the participants were not familiar with the instrument. However, the study results can be used to help inform health policy in the Lao People's Democratic Republic regarding the urgent need for a routine data collection system and for providing an environment that addresses and reduces the identified risk factors for cognitive decline to mitigate their impact.

Effectiveness of a community-integrated intermediary care (CIIC) service model to enhance family-based long-term care for Thai older adults in Chiang Mai, Thailand: a cluster-randomized controlled trial TCTR20190412004

BACKGROUND

Populations around the world are ageing faster, with the majority living in low- and middle-income countries where health and social care are yet to be universal and inclusive for the ageing population. This community-integrated intermediary care (CIIC) model is a novel prevention-based, long-term care model enhancing the family-based care system traditionally practised in Thailand and neighbouring Asian countries, and many low-and middle-income countries globally. This study assessed the effectiveness of the CIIC model in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

METHODS

The two-arm parallel intervention study was designed as a cluster-randomized controlled trial. The study population at randomization and analysis was 2788 participants: 1509 in six intervention clusters and 1279 in six control clusters. The research protocol was approved by the WHO Research Ethics Review Committee (WHO/ERC ID; ERC.0003064). The CIIC service intervention model is a combination of formal care and informal care in a subdistrict setting consisting of three components: (1) care prevention delivered as community group exercise and home exercise; (2) care capacity-building of the family caregiver; and (3) community respite service. The primary outcome was family caregivers' burden at 6-month follow-up, and secondary outcome was activities of daily living. Analysis applied the intention-to-treat approach using cluster-level analysis via STATA 16 SE.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics did not differ between the two arms. Loss of follow up was 3.7%. Mean age of the participants was 69.53 years. Women constituted 60%. The COVID-19 pandemic caused delayed implementation. The proportion of families with reduced caregiver burden at 6-month follow-up was higher among the intervention clusters (mean 39.4%) than control clusters (mean 28.62%). The intervention clusters experienced less functional decline and fewer people with depression.

CONCLUSIONS

When communities are integrated for preventing care, and families are empowered for giving care, it is possible to secure universal access to health and social care for the older persons, with basic resources mobilized from communities. This study had shown the CIIC model as an effective and potential step to the realization of universal health and long-term care coverage being inclusive of ageing populations in Thailand and globally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was registered at the Thailand Clinical Trial Registry-Trial registration number TCTR20190412004, https://www.thaiclinicaltrials.org/.

Media portrayals of transitions from work to retirement in two ageing societies: the case of ageing baby boomers in Japan and Finland

This article explores media portrayals of the transition from work to retirement under the circumstances of demographic change through a focus on newspaper discussions about ageing baby boomers in Japan and Finland. Due to their shared characteristics as a distinct population group that advances the rapid ageing of the population, media representations of Japanese and Finnish baby boomers during the transitional period to retirement give insight into the social perceptions of retirement and their implications on later life. Manifest content analysis and subsequent thematic analysis identify that the topic of "work, retirement and pension" dominates media discussions in both countries. Analysis also conveys that this topic involves specific themes on three levels: macro level, attitudinal level and behavioural level regarding working, subjective and social perceptions of retirement. Social and cultural differences between Japan and Finland are well accounted for in shaping each theme, which is characterised by even contrasting expressions regarding the extension of working life and attitudes toward work and retirement. However, deeper analysis suggests that the idea that values an active, productive and engaged lifestyle beyond retirement underlies both Japanese and Finnish media discourses. Media discussions in both countries risk creating a discriminatory dichotomy among older people: the Finnish media marginalises those who are out of work and without work-like activities, while the Japanese media tend to exclude those without socially desirable competence.

Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured

Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, H2N3) have highlighted the threat of pathogen transmission, and vaccination offers a necessary tool to relieve illness. However, vaccine efficacy is one of the barriers to eradicating the epidemic. Intuitively, vaccine efficacy is closely related to age structures, and the distribution of vaccine efficacy usually obeys a Gaussian distribution, such as with H3N2 and influenza A and B. Based on this fact, in this paper, we study the effect of vaccine efficacy on disease spread by considering different age structures and extending the traditional susceptible-infected-recovery/vaccinator(SIR/V) model with two stages to three stages, which includes the decision-making stage, epidemic stage, and birth-death stage. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model generates a higher vaccination level compared with the case of complete vaccine efficacy because the vaccinated individuals in our model can form small and numerous clusters slower than that of complete vaccine efficacy. In addition, priority vaccination for the elderly is conducive to halting the epidemic when facing population ageing. Our work is expected to provide valuable information for decision-making and the design of more effective disease control strategies.

Improving healthcare systems and services in the face of population ageing: policy considerations for low- and middle-income countries

Worldwide, the proportion and absolute numbers of over 60-year-olds in the population is rising: it was 1 billion in 2019 and is expected to get to 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion by 2050, with the progression being more pronounced in developing countries. Degenerative and non-communicable diseases are more common with ageing, which means they would become the major disease problems for countries. Long-term care poses financial risks to individuals/families and governments. These warrant urgent policy and structural adjustments of health systems in low- and middle-income countries to cater for the probable change in health needs and make their society more age-sensitive. There is the need for policymakers to begin to change focus from traditional models of healthcare delivery and give more attention to aged care and create separate financing mechanisms/programmes for the elderly, most of whom are already unemployed, to protect them from the effects of cream-skimming by private health insurers. Informed decisions on healthcare purchasing can be made using Economic Evaluation, as well as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis, a presentation of discrete categories of healthcare expenditure (specialties, disease-groups, etc.) and the resources appropriated to each as an aid to reviewing subsequent resource allocation. Reforms in healthcare financing should pay particular attention to the elderly considering that technical efficiency concerns of the private sector may mean that they are discriminated against. There is need for retraining/reorientation of health workers on identification and comprehensive management of NCDs, including palliative care, in a culturally competent way, on the essence of shifting from an acute care model to a chronic care model, and on providing services to people within defined catchment areas.

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. We estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017 to explore whether a healthy older working age population, as measured by age-specific Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), can moderate the relationship between an ageing labour force and real per capita GDP growth. Using country and year fixed effects models, we find that although an increase in the 55-69 year old share of the total population is associated with a reduction in real per capita GDP growth, the decline in economic growth is moderated if the population at that age is in good health. To demonstrate the magnitude of effects, we present model predicted real per capita GDP growth for a selection of countries from 2020 through 2100 comparing the 2017 country-specific baseline YLD rate to a simulated 5% improvement in YLDs. Our findings demonstrate that economic slowdowns attributable to population ageing are avoidable through policy interventions supporting healthy and active ageing.

Ageing in Zimbabwe: Reflections 41 Years After Independence

While Zimbabwe shares similar characteristics with other sub-Saharan countries that are generally regarded as 'young populations' the percentage of older adults has increased from 4,7% in 1982 to 6% in 2017. Research on ageing is mainly on social protection, health and quality of life. Emerging research points towards healthy ageing, gender relations and access to resources. The economic environment has been unstable for the greater part of the 41 years of independence. Poverty is increasing and the lives of older adults are vulnerable owing to inadequate and poorly targeted and funded social safety nets and social care services. The framework for addressing ageing in the country is adequate but implementation is lacking. Zimbabwe lacks longitudinal datasets on ageing; researchers mostly rely on data produced by Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), United Nations agencies and other International non-governmental organisations.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.

METHODS

Based on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.

RESULTS

Population ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016-2046

Australia’s population is growing, ageing and exhibiting increasing heterogeneity with respect to birthplace and ethnic composition. Yet, little is understood about the levels of English language proficiency among the next generation of older migrants in Australia. Utilising a modified cohort-component model incorporating detailed language proficiency transition probabilities, we project birthplace populations by levels of English language proficiency to mid-century. Our results show that although Asian-born migrants tend to have lower levels of English proficiency, the majority of older migrants with poor proficiency are currently from a predominantly European background. In the future, we project a strong shift in the population of poor English speakers toward an Asian-born dominance as some European-born migrant groups dwindle in size and cohort flow increases population growth among older Asian migrants. Specifically, most of the population growth among older migrants with poor English proficiency occurs among Chinese and Mainland Southeast Asian migrants. However, we demonstrate that population growth among the total migrant population with poor proficiency is considerably lower than populations with good proficiency or from English-speaking households. Over the projection horizon, the total older migrant population with poor English proficiency increases by under 80,000 compared with an increase of 726,000 with good levels of proficiency and 518,000 in English-speaking households. However, we caution against conflating improved English language proficiency with a policy shift away from ethno-specific aged care services as culture, which is more than language, strongly influences perceptions of quality of aged care.

Participation in training at older ages: A European perspective on path dependency in life course trajectories

Investments in lifelong learning may create unsatisfactory results, and this could potentially contribute to the reproduction of inequalities. We argue that the process is related to the accumulation of opportunities and barriers for participation in training, which can lock individuals in disadvantageous path-dependent trajectories. We take a longitudinal approach to analyse whether participation in training in older age is path-dependent, and whether this path dependency is related to institutional contexts. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we trace individual training trajectories in the population aged 50+ in twelve European countries between 2010 and 2015 (27 370 respondents). Hierarchical Bayesian logit models serve to assess the probability of training during the sixth wave, with a lagged dependent variable as a predictor. Results suggest that training participation is path-dependent and participation in training is limited for people who have not trained previously. It is also related to macrostructural context: path dependency is lower in countries with stronger knowledge economies, stronger emphasis on education, and a proactive ageing climate. Recognising path dependency can help to improve access to training and design policies that address problems of cohesion, active ageing and adult learning.

Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect population ageing in Australia?

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused extensive disruption to economies and societies across the world. In terms of demographic processes, mortality has risen in many countries, international migration and mobility has been widely curtailed, and rising unemployment and job insecurity is expected to lower fertility rates in the near future. This paper attempts to examine the possible effects of COVID-19 on Australia’s demography over the next two decades, focusing in particular on population ageing. Several population projections were prepared for the period 2019–41. We formulated three scenarios in which the pandemic has a short-lived impact of 2–3 years, a moderate impact lasting about 5 years, or a severe impact lasting up to a decade. We also created two hypothetical scenarios, one of which illustrates Australia’s demographic future in the absence of a pandemic for comparative purposes, and another which demonstrates the demographic consequences if Australia had experienced excess mortality equivalent to that recorded in the first half of 2020 in England & Wales. Our projections show that the pandemic will probably have little impact on numerical population ageing but a moderate effect on structural ageing. Had Australia experienced the high mortality observed in England & Wales there would have been 19,400 excess deaths. We caution that considerable uncertainty surrounds the future trajectory of COVID-19 and therefore the demographic responses to it. The pandemic will need to be monitored closely and projection scenarios updated accordingly.

Use of Counterfactual Population Projections for Assessing the Demographic Determinants of Population Ageing

Counterfactual population projections have been used to estimate the contributions of fertility and mortality to population ageing, a method recently designated as the gold standard for this purpose. We analyse projections with base years between 1850 and 1950 for 11 European countries with long-run demographic data series to estimate the robustness of this approach. We link this approach with stable population theory to derive quantitative indicators of the role of fertility and mortality; consider ways of incorporating net migration; and examine the effect of using alternative indicators of population ageing. A number of substantive and technical weaknesses in the counterfactual projection approach are identified: (1) the conclusions are very sensitive to the choice of base year. Specifically, the level of base year fertility has a major influence on whether fertility or mortality is considered the main driver of population ageing. (2) The method is not transitive: results for two adjacent intervals are unrelated to results for the combined period. Therefore, overall results cannot be usefully allocated between different sub-intervals. (3) Different ageing indices tend to produce similar qualitative conclusions, but quantitative results may differ markedly. (4) Comparisons of alternative models should be with a fixed fertility and mortality projection model rather than with the baseline values as usually done. (5) The standard counterfactual projections approach concatenates the effects of initial age structure and subsequent fertility and mortality rates: methods to separate these components are derived.

Societal Need for Interdisciplinary Ageing Research: An International Alliance of Research Universities "Ageing, Longevity and Health" Stream (IARU-ALH) Position Statement

Ageing is a global concern with major social, health, and economic implications. While individual countries seek to develop responses to immediate, pressing needs, international attention and collaboration is required to most effectively address the multifaceted challenges and opportunities an ageing global population presents in the longer term. The Ageing, Longevity and Health stream of the International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU-ALH) was built on a solid foundation of first-class interdisciplinary research and on innovative outreach and communication centres. This interdisciplinary network conducts projects that span biology, medicine, social sciences, epidemiology, public health, policy, and demography, and actively engages with the public and other societal stakeholders. Here we posit that such international interdisciplinary networks are needed and uniquely placed to address major challenges related to health and ageing and ultimately will produce new understanding and knowledge to promote the awareness of healthy ageing and encourage societal change via novel, science-informed interventions. Global interdisciplinary research presents great potential and opportunities to accelerate our understanding of human ageing and to produce new, more effective solutions to a pressing, complex problem. However, more focused, strategic efforts and investments are required in order to deliver on these potentials and reap maximum benefits for individuals and societies. IARU-ALH members are determined to contribute, in collaboration with others, to delivering on this vision.

Rural-urban and gender differences in the association between community care services and elderly individuals' mental health: a case from Shaanxi Province, China

Background

While community care services have been developing rapidly as a new way to meet the growing demands of elderly individuals in China, their health benefits are virtually unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to examine the Chinese elderly individuals’ utilisation of community care services and its association with the mental health with comparing rural-urban and gender differences.

Methods

For this 2019 cross-sectional study, 687 elderly people from 7 counties (districts) of China’s Shaanxi province were enrolled. Respondents’ mental health level was assessed using a self-reported mental health measure. Four categories of community care services utilisation were examined: daily care services, medical care services, social and recreational services and spiritual comfort services. The binary logistic regression model was used in examining the association between community care services utilisation and mental health.

Results

Our results showed that there was a noted difference in mental health level between the male and female groups. Utilisation of medical care services and social and recreational services was significantly higher in the rural group than that in the urban group. Regression analysis showed that utilisation of daily care services (β = 0.809, p = 0.008) and social and recreational service (β = 0.526, p = 0.035) was significantly and positively associated with elderly individuals’ mental health level. Specifically, daily care services utilisation predicted a better mental health of the rural elderly (β = 1.051, p = 0.036) and the male elderly (β = 1.133, p = 0.053), while social and recreational services utilisation predicted a better mental health of the urban elderly (β = 0.927, p = 0.008) and the female elderly (β = 0.864, p = 0.007).

Conclusions

Our findings indicated varied levels of community care services utilisation and mental health are common among the elderly people in China. Community care services utilisation has a positive, albeit selective, association with elderly individuals’ mental health. Further policies should strengthen the equitable development of high-quality community care services in urban and rural areas to improve the mental health of elderly individuals, and focus more on gender differences in terms of community care services needs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-06113-z.

Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016-56

Many of the European migrant populations which settled in Australia in the three decades after World War Two are now much older, and their aged care and health care needs are changing. While there is a considerable literature on individual aspects of ageing in many migrant groups (particularly as it pertains to culturally appropriate aged care), little research attention has been given to population aspects of ageing and its implications. The aim of this paper is to address this lacuna by presenting projections of Australia's Europe-born older migrant population from 2016 to 2056. The population projections were created by a cohort-component model modified to accommodate multiple birthplace populations. Findings show the older Europe-born population is projected to experience a slight increase over the next few years, reach a peak of just under one million in the early 2030s, and then undergo a gradual decline thereafter. The Europe-born share of Australia's 65+ population will fall, from 25.5% in 2016 to 10% by 2056. Populations born in Western and Southern Europe are likely to decline throughout the projection horizon while, the Northern Europe-born and Ireland-born older populations are projected to grow continually. The populations born in the UK and South Eastern Europe initially grow before decline sets in. To a large extent the future population size of these older migrant groups will be the result of cohort flow. We discuss the implications of the coming demographic changes for government policy and culturally appropriate service provision.

[Progress in research of burden of disease attributed to population ageing]

Objective: To summarize recent progress in research of burden of disease attributed to population ageing and provide reference for relevant research in the future. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of quantitative studies about the impact of population ageing on burden of disease published from 2009 to 2019 according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria through PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wangfang database and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases and extracted basic information and key results of the searched literature. Results: A total of 65 studies were included in the analysis, in which 29 (44.6%) studies used death number or mortality rate as outcome measures, 43 (66.2%) studies focused on a single country, such as China, United Kingdom and United States, 39 (60.0%) studies quantified the impact of population ageing on single disease, such as diabetes, lung cancer and coronary heart disease, 44 (67.7%) studies used decomposition methods to quantify the impact of population ageing, and 10 (15.4%) studies evaluated the effect of interventions on alleviating the impact of population ageing. Most studies found that population ageing increased the burden of some diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and dementia, while a few studies reported that population ageing decreased the burden of some diseases, such as neonatal disease and malaria. Various decomposition methods were adopted in 65 included studies, but several common methods were sensitive to the preconditions that were assumed, the decomposition order of three factors (population size, age structure, and age-specific rate) and the choice of control group, resulting incomparable and unstable results. Conclusions: The published decomposition studies adopted various methods and only evaluated the impact of population ageing in very limited countries and for several diseases. Therefore, a systematic evaluation using robust decomposition method is very necessary to evaluate the impact of population aging on disease burden across countries and diseases.

Past and projected growth of Australia's older migrant populations

In recent years, Australia’s older population (aged 65 and over) has been growing rapidly, accompanied by a shift in its country of birth composition. Although a great deal of research has been undertaken on past and current aspects of Australia’s migrant groups, little attention has been paid to future demographic trends in older populations. The aim of this paper is to examine recent and possible future demographic trends of Australia’s migrant populations at the older ages. We present population estimates by country and broad global region of birth from 1996 to 2016, and then new birthplace-specific population projections for the 2016 to 2056 period. Our findings show that substantial growth of the 65+ population will occur in the coming decades, and that the overseas-born will shift from a Europe-born dominance to an Asia-born dominance. Cohort flow (the effect of varying sizes of cohorts moving into the 65+ age group over time) will be the main driver of growth for most older birthplace populations. The shifting demography of Australia’s older population signals many policy, planning, service delivery and funding challenges for government and private sector providers. We discuss those related to aged care, health care, language services, the aged care workforce, regulatory frameworks and future research needs in demography and gerontology.

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017

Background

Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.

Methods

The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area.

Results

The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR.

Conclusion

The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

Mind the gaps: age and cause specific mortality and life expectancy in the older population of South Korea and Japan

BACKGROUND

Recent life expectancy gains in high-income Asia-pacific countries have been largely the result of postponement of death from non-communicable diseases in old age, causing rapid demographic ageing. This study compared and quantified age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy in two high-income Asia-pacific countries with ageing populations, South Korea and Japan.

METHODS

This study used Pollard's actuarial method of decomposing life expectancy to compare age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy between South Korea and Japan during 1997 and 2017.

RESULTS

South Korea experienced rapid population ageing, and the gaps in life expectancy at 60 years old between South Korea and Japan were reduced by 2.47 years during 1997 and 2017. Decomposition analysis showed that mortality reductions from non-communicable diseases in South Korea were the leading causes of death contributing to the decreased gaps in old-age life expectancy between the two countries. More specifically, mortality reductions from cardiovascular diseases (stroke, ischaemic and hypertensive heart disease) and cancers (stomach, liver, lung, pancreatic cancers) in South Korea contributed to the decreased gap by 1.34 and 0.41 years, respectively. However, increased mortality from Alzheimer and dementia, lower respiratory tract disease, self-harm and falls in South Korea widened the gaps by 0.41 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Age- and cause- specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy can differ between high-income Asia-pacific countries. Although the gaps in old-age life expectancy between high-income Asia-pacific countries are primarily attributed to mortality changes in non-communicable diseases, these countries should also identify potential emerging threats of communicable diseases and injuries along with demographic ageing in pursuit of healthy life years in old age.

Temporal changes in years of life lost associated with heat waves in the Czech Republic

Seniors constitute the population group generally most at risk of mortality due to heat stress. As life expectancy increases and health conditions of elderly people improve over time, vulnerability of the population to heat changes as well. We employed the years-of-life-lost (YLL) approach, considering life expectancy at the time of each death, to investigate how population ageing affects temporal changes in heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Using an updated gridded meteorological database, we identified heat waves during 1994-2017, and analysed temporal changes in their impacts on YLL and mortality. The mean impact of a heat-wave day on relative excess mortality and YLL had declined by approximately 2-3% per decade. That decline abated in the current decade, however, and the decreasing trend in mean excess mortality as well as YLL vanished when the short-term mortality displacement effect was considered. Moreover, the cumulative number of excess deaths and YLL during heat waves rose due to increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves during the examined period. The results show that in studies of temporal changes it is important to differentiate between mean effects of heat waves on mortality and the overall death burden associated with heat waves. Analysis of the average ratio of excess YLL/death per heat-wave day indicated that the major heat-vulnerable population group shifted towards older age (70+ years among males and 75+ years among females). Our findings highlight the importance of focusing heat-protection measures especially upon the elderly population, which is most heat-vulnerable and whose numbers are rising.

Perceived Income Adequacy and Well-being Among Older Adults in Six Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVES

Perceived income adequacy is positively associated with self-rated health (SRH) and quality of life (QOL) among adults in higher-income countries. Additionally, older individuals often report higher levels of income adequacy. However, it is unclear if these associations, documented primarily in high-income countries, are also evident across economically and culturally distinctive low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE), a study of adults aged 50 years or older in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and South Africa. Smaller samples of younger adults (18-49 years) were included for comparison purposes. Participants reported income adequacy, SRH, and QOL. Associations between age and income adequacy and between income adequacy and SRH/QOL were examined using country-specific logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Older adults in China and Russia were more likely to report better income adequacy than their 18- to 49-year-old counterparts; however, the opposite was observed in Ghana and India. SRH and QOL improved as income adequacy increased in all countries.

DISCUSSION

As expected, income adequacy was correlated with SRH and QOL. However, the relationship between age and income adequacy varied cross-culturally, potentially due to differences in familial and governmental financial support.

Ethical implications of population ageing in the intensive care unit

Population ageing has significant ethical implications in the management of elderly patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). In the aspects of beneficence and non-maleficence, conflicting evidence has long existed regarding an association of older age with poorer prognosis, but elderly patients who have poor prognosis in the ICU may have a worse outcome if not admitted. More randomised controlled studies are needed to study the benefits of ICU admission to different subgroups of critically ill elderly patients. The acute care for the elderly unit could be developed to provide more comprehensive care to the elderly. ICU resource rationing should follow clear guidelines with a pluralistic strategy of distributive justice, which incorporates the core proposition of "veil of ignorance" with the anti-ageist and equalist view so that age itself should not be a criterion but any associated risks with age confirmed by studies should be taken into account of assessing prognosis and outcome. There may be a need for improvement in protection for patients' right to autonomy in the ICU.

Spatiotemporal evolution of Chinese ageing from 1992 to 2015 based on an improved Bayesian space-time model

BACKGROUND

Most countries are experiencing growth in the number and proportion of their ageing populations and this issue is posing challenges for economies and societies worldwide. The most populated country in the world, China, is experiencing a dramatic increase in its ageing population. As China is the world's largest developing country, its serious ageing issue may have far-reaching effects not only domestically but also in other countries and even globally.

METHODS

In order to overcome the weaknesses of traditional statistical models and reveal further detail regarding the local area evolution, an improved Bayesian space-time model is presented in this paper and used to estimate the spatiotemporal evolution of Chinese ageing from 1992 to 2015.

RESULTS

The six eastern provinces with high levels of ageing have been experiencing an almost steady state, while Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang have weak increased trends of ageing, and the weak increased trend is decreasing. Although the northern and western provinces belong to the low ageing area, five of them have strong local growth trends and therefore strong potential to exacerbate ageing. Under the background of the "comprehensive two children" policy, the forecast value of China's ageing rate is 13.80% (95% CI:11.24%,18.83% is) in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering developments over the past 24 years, it has been determined that the areas of the Chinese mainland that are experiencing the highest levels of growth in ageing populations are the two central provinces, which are connected to seven eastern provinces and five southwestern provinces. High ageing areas are not only concentrated in the eastern provinces, but also include Sichuan and Chongqing in the southwest region and Hubei and Hunan of the central region. The seven provinces (municipalities or autonomous regions) of the central and western regions have both high ageing levels and strong growth rates, but the growth rate is decreasing.

The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure: A Bayesian VAR analysis using data from Italy

Currently, the dynamics of the population have raised concerns about the future sustainability of Italy's national health system. The increasing proportion of people over the age of 65 could lead to a higher incidence of chronic-degenerative diseases and a greater demand for health and social care with a consequent impact on health spending. Although in recent years the quantity and quality of works on the relationship between ageing and health expenditure has increased substantially these works do not always obtain similar results. Starting from this point, we use a B-VAR model and Eurostat data to investigate over the period 1990-2013 the impact of demographic changes on health expenditure in Italy. We estimate these models using impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition. The results show that health expenditure in Italy reacts more to the ageing population compared with life expectancy and per capita GDP. In response to these findings, we conclude that the impact of the increase in the elderly population with disabilities will fall on the long-term care sector. Effective health interventions, such as health-promotion and disease-prevention programs that target the main causes of morbidity, could help to minimize the cost pressures associated with ageing by ensuring that the population stays healthy in old age. We consider the implications of this work for health care policy suggestions and for future research.

Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.

Health or harm? A cohort study of the importance of job quality in extended workforce participation by older adults

BACKGROUND

As people are living longer, they are being encouraged to work longer. While it is assumed that extended employment will be good for health, the evidence has been mixed. This study considers whether employment and job quality exert an influence on four indicators of health status in older workers.

METHODS

Data for this study came from 836 older workers (440 men and 396 women) aged 50-59 years at baseline who participated in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Using linear regression, we examine within-person change in self-rated, physical and mental health and one health behaviour (physical activity) at two time points over a nine year follow-up period.

RESULTS

There were minimal differences in the way health changed for older adults who continued working compared to those who retired voluntarily. However, when we decomposed employment in terms of job quality, health outcomes diverged. Compared to voluntary retirees, older workers who had worked in good quality jobs reported marginally better self-rated health (0.14,-0.02-0.29); but did not differ in their physical (2.31,-1.09-5.72) or mental health (0.51,-1.84-2.87). In contrast, older workers who held poor quality jobs for most of the follow-up period declined in their self-rated (-1.13,-0.28 - -0.02), physical (-4.90, 8.52- - 1.29) and mental health (-4.67, 7.69- - 1.66) relative to voluntary retirees. Older workers who held poor quality jobs for just some of the follow-up period did not differ from voluntary retirees in terms of their health. However there was evidence of a linear relationship between length of exposure to poor quality jobs and decline in health outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Extended working lives mean that people will be 'exposed' to work for longer, and this exposure will occur at a life stage characterised by declining health for many. Our findings show that ensuring older workers have access to secure jobs which allow for control over work time, skill use and fair rewards will be essential if policy goals to boost participation and productivity, as well as reduce the health and care costs of the elderly, are to be met.

Variation in the costs of dying and the role of different health services, socio-demographic characteristics, and preceding health care expenses

The health care costs of population ageing are for an important part attributable to higher mortality rates in combination with high costs of dying. This paper answers three questions that remain unanswered regarding the costs of dying: (1) contributions of different health services to the costs of dying; (2) variation in the costs of dying; and (3) the influence of preceding health care expenses on the costs of dying. We retrieved data on 61,495 Dutch subjects aged 65 and older from July 2007 through 2010 from a regional health care insurer. We included all deceased subjects of whom health care expenses were known for 26 months prior to death (n=2833). Costs of dying were defined as health care expenses made in the last six months before death. Lorenz curves, generalized linear models and a two-part model were used for our analyses. (1) The average costs of dying are €25,919. Medical care contributes to 57% of this total, and long-term care 43%. The costs of dying mainly relate to hospital care (40%). (2) In the costs of dying, 75% is attributable to the costliest half of the population. For medical care, this distribution figure is 86%, and for long-term care 92%. Age and preceding expenses are significant determinants of this variation in the costs of dying. (3) Overall, higher preceding health care expenses are associated with higher costs of dying, indicating that the costs of dying are higher for those with a longer patient history. To summarize, there is not a large variation in the costs of dying, but there are large differences in the nature of these costs. Before death, the oldest old utilize more long-term care while their younger counterparts visit hospitals more often. To curb the health care costs of population ageing, a further understanding of the costs of dying is crucial.

Population ageing in Central and Eastern Europe and its demographic and social context

The article focuses on several demographic and socio-economic idiosyncrasies in Central and Eastern Europe, which impact the process of population ageing and intergenerational relations. These include the adverse mortality trends and especially the excess male mortality in certain countries, which exacerbated sex differences in life expectancy beyond anything ever recorded in peace-time population history, the combination of natural population decrease and net emigration, the disordered cohort flows and the shorter generational length. The rapid demographic change in these countries coincided with political, economic and social transformations. The shock of the fall of communism affected differently younger people, who could relatively easily reorganize their life cycles so as to adapt to the changed circumstances, and older persons for whom such reorganization was more difficult, or even impossible. This created the possibility for the opening of an intergenerational rift, as older generations felt being the losers of the transition. The article explores the implications of these idiosyncrasies and social context for living arrangements, kin networks, individual wellbeing and inter-generational relations, and identifies areas where particular challenges are likely to be faced when it comes to policies and programs aimed at older persons.

Population ageing in Sweden: the effect of change in educational composition on the future number of older people suffering severe ill-health

We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population may affect future prevalence of severe ill-health among older people in Sweden. Previous research has indicated that the number of older people, given educational differentials in mortality and expected changes in educational composition during the next decades, may increase more than expected following official population projections in Sweden. Eight alternative scenario projections for the possible development in the number of people with severe ill-health in Sweden between 2000 and 2035 are presented. Scenario projections, where both morbidity and mortality inequalities by educational level are taken into account, are compared with scenarios in which only age and gender are modelled. The projections are made with both constant and decreasing mortality. The calculations show that the expected increases in severe ill-health as a result from the ageing of the population in the period 2000-2035 might, to a large extent, be counteracted by the increase in the educational level of the Swedish population. We recommend therefore that in projections of the prevalence of ill-health, in addition to the ageing of the population, also changes in educational level should be taken into account.