The innovation effect of green finance reform-based on the green innovation vitality perspective

In order to develop green finance and realize the coordinated development of environment and economy, China set up green finance reform and innovation pilot zones in 2017. Taking the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones in China as an exogenous shock and based on the synthetic control method, this paper explores the impact of the pilot policies on green innovation vitality by taking five pilot provinces as the experimental group and 25 provinces without pilot policies as the control group. It is found that the pilot policy significantly enhances the level of green innovation dynamism in the pilot regions, but due to the different policy focuses, the innovation effect is immediate in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Jiangxi, while the policy effect is significantly lagging behind in Xinjiang; government incentives are an important channel through which the policy enhances the green innovation dynamism; and the above findings are more significant in the samples of substantial green innovation dynamism and the eastern region. In addition, the extended economic consequences analysis shows that the pilot policy can significantly improve energy efficiency in the pilot region with a significant time lag. The findings of the study not only provide empirical evidence for the implementation effect of the green finance pilot policies, but also have practical implications for improving the green finance system and replicating and extending the green finance reform and innovation pilot zones.

The impact of area level mental health interventions on outcomes for secondary school pupils: Evidence from the HeadStart programme in England

In light of the dramatic rise in mental health disorders amongst adolescents seen in the past decade across the world, there is an urgent need for robust evidence on what works to combat this trend. This paper provides the first robust evaluation of the impacts on school outcomes of 6-year funding programme (HeadStart) for area-level mental health interventions for adolescents. Exploiting educational administrative data on ten cohorts of state-educated secondary school students, we use the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual outcomes for areas that received the funding. We show that the funding did not affect students' absenteeism or academic attainment, but it prevented around 800 students (c. 10% of students typically excluded yearly) from being excluded in its first year. The transient nature of this effect suggests that sustained funding for intervention may be a necessary but not sufficient condition to maintain programme effectiveness over time.

How time horizons of autocrats impact health expenditure: a mixed methods research

BACKGROUND

A country's spending on healthcare significantly improves its population health status. No comparative study has examined how the threat perceived by leaders influences health expenditure and cross-national analyses of authoritarian regimes. The objectives of this study are to examine how time horizons of autocrats influence health expenditure.

METHODS

We designed a mixed methods research approach. First, the study used panel data from 1995 to 2010 covering 95 countries (n = 1208) and applied fixed effects regression models. As a proxy for time horizons, the study generated the predicted survival time for each regime-year using parametric survival analysis and the predictors to model regime failure. Second, we chose Chad, Rwanda and Ivory Coast to apply synthetic control methods for comparative case studies. Armed conflict had significant effects on regime duration and was used for an intervention. We constructed a synthetic version of each country, combining counties that did not or did experience armed conflict to resemble the values of health expenditure predictors for the actual country prior to the intervention.

RESULTS

We found that an increase in the natural log form of survival time by 1 resulted in a 1.14 percentage point increase in health expenditure (% of GDP) (1.14, 95% CI = 0.60-1.69). Furthermore, we found that the difference in health expenditure between the actual Chad and its synthetic version starts to grow following the civil war in 2004 (in 2004, actual: 5.72%, synthetic: 5.91%; in 2005, actual: 3.91%, synthetic: 6.74%). Similarly, a large health expenditure gap between the actual Rwanda and its synthetic control resulted after the peace deal was signed in 2002 (in 2002, actual: 4.18%, synthetic: 4.77%; in 2003, actual: 6.34%, synthetic: 5.03%). In Ivory Coast, the two series diverge substantially during the civil war from 1999 to 2005 (in 1998, actual: 7.30%, synthetic: 7.11%; in 2002, actual: 4.47%, synthetic: 7.43%; in 2007, actual: 6.35%, synthetic: 6.50%).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that health expenditure decreases as regime time horizons shrink, and reducing armed conflict is a way to promote regime stability.

Effects of the Convention on the Rights of the Child on child mortality and vaccination rates: a synthetic control analysis

BACKGROUND

Scholars have long been sceptical about the effectiveness of human rights treaties in changing the behaviour of states parties and prior empirical research has often justified that scepticism. However, only a few prior studies have considered the effects of adoption of core human rights treaties on health outcomes and only one prior study has analysed the effects of adoption of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) on children's health outcomes.

METHODS

In this study, we estimated the effects of CRC adoption on child mortality rates and vaccination rates in less developed countries. In particular, we compared 43 less developed countries that adopted the CRC in 1990 with synthetic control groups drawn from 21 less developed countries that adopted it after 1992.

RESULTS

We find that CRC adoption may be related to additional reductions in infant and under-5 mortality rates of about 1 to 2 deaths per 1000 live births, on average, during the first three years after adoption, although those relationships are not statistically significant. And we find that CRC adoption is related to additional increases in vaccination rates for the five vaccines that we considered of about 4 to 5%, on average, during the first three years after adoption and that those relationships remain significant for up to seven years after adoption.

CONCLUSION

From a policy perspective, our results further support the effectiveness of CRC adoption in promoting children's right to health in less developed countries. And from a research perspective, our results show the advantages of using synthetic control methods in these types of studies, because our analyses using other methods that have most commonly been used in these studies did not find any consistent, significant relationships between CRC adoption and mortality or vaccination rates.

Comparative politics and the synthetic control method revisited: a note on Abadie et al. (2015)

Recently, Abadie et al. (Am J Polit Sci 59:495-510, 2015) have expanded synthetic control methods by the so-called cross-validation technique. We find that their results are not being reproduced when alternative software packages are used or when the variables' ordering within the dataset is changed. We show that this failure stems from the cross-validation technique relying on non-uniquely defined predictor weights. While the amount of the resulting ambiguity is negligible for the main application of Abadie et al. (Am J Polit Sci 59:495-510, 2015), we find it to be substantial for several of their robustness analyses. Applying well-defined, standard synthetic control methods reveals that the authors' results are particularly driven by a specific control country, the USA.