Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change.

Peeling the Layers of Caddisfly Diversity on a Longitudinal Gradient in Karst Freshwater Habitats Reveals Community Dynamics and Stability

Simple Summary

Freshwater biodiversity is facing a severe crisis due to many different human-caused impacts, such as climate change, pollution, habitat alterations, etc. Aquatic insects are one of the most important bioindicators used in freshwater ecological quality assessment systems, yet knowledge on diversity dynamics of their communities is incomplete. In the current study, we compare and evaluate performance of different diversity measures, i.e., commonly used simple diversity indices vs. novel complex measures incorporating ecological information of species (feeding behavior and stream zonation preferences). As a target group, we chose caddisflies, a species-rich, aquatic insect order, in different habitats of an anthropogenically unimpacted, connected karst barrage lake/riverine system. In line with our hypothesis, the complex diversity measures were more efficient in ranking and distinguishing different habitats, particularly the ones with similar communities. We also constructed a novel measure to rank the habitats by sensitivity to climate change, based on diversity of caddisfly communities and vulnerability of species inhabiting them. As expected, the springs were ranked as most vulnerable habitats. Our study further underlines the importance of integrating ecological information into biodiversity and vulnerability assessment of freshwater communities.

Abstract

Freshwater biodiversity is facing a severe crisis due to many human impacts, yet the diversity dynamics of freshwater communities and possibilities of assessing these are vastly unexplored. We aimed at emphasizing different aspects of portraying diversity of a species-rich, aquatic insect group (caddisflies; Trichoptera) across four different habitats in an anthropogenically unimpacted, connected karst barrage lake/riverine system. To define diversity, we used common indices with pre-set sensitivity to species abundance/dominance; i.e., sensitivity parameter (species richness, Shannon, Simpson, Berger-Parker) and diversity profiles based on continuous gradients of this sensitivity parameter: the naïve and non-naïve diversity profiles developed by Leinster and Cobbold. The non-naïve diversity profiles show diversity profiles with regard to the similarity among species in terms of ecological traits and preferences, whereas the naïve diversity profile is called mathematically “naïve” as it assumes absolute dissimilarity between species that is almost never true. The commonly used indices and the naïve diversity profile both ranked the springs as least diverse and tufa barriers as most diverse. The non-naïve diversity profiles based on similarity matrices (using feeding behavior and stream zonation preferences of species), showed even greater differences between these habitats, while ranking stream habitats close together, regardless of their longitudinal position. We constructed the Climate Score index (CSI) in order to assess how diversity and species’ vulnerability project the community’s resistance and/or resilience to climate change. The CSI ranked the springs as most vulnerable, followed by all habitats longitudinally placed below them. We highlight the importance of integrating ecological information into biodiversity and vulnerability assessment of freshwater communities.

Temperature dependence of metabolic rate in tropical and temperate aquatic insects: Support for the Climate Variability Hypothesis in mayflies but not stoneflies

A fundamental gap in climate change vulnerability research is an understanding of the relative thermal sensitivity of ectotherms. Aquatic insects are vital to stream ecosystem function and biodiversity but insufficiently studied with respect to their thermal physiology. With global temperatures rising at an unprecedented rate, it is imperative that we know how aquatic insects respond to increasing temperature and whether these responses vary among taxa, latitudes, and elevations. We evaluated the thermal sensitivity of standard metabolic rate in stream-dwelling baetid mayflies and perlid stoneflies across a ~2,000 m elevation gradient in the temperate Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA, and the tropical Andes in Napo, Ecuador. We used temperature-controlled water baths and microrespirometry to estimate changes in oxygen consumption. Tropical mayflies generally exhibited greater thermal sensitivity in metabolism compared to temperate mayflies; tropical mayfly metabolic rates increased more rapidly with temperature and the insects more frequently exhibited behavioral signs of thermal stress. By contrast, temperate and tropical stoneflies did not clearly differ. Varied responses to temperature among baetid mayflies and perlid stoneflies may reflect differences in evolutionary history or ecological roles as herbivores and predators, respectively. Our results show that there is physiological variation across elevations and species and that low-elevation tropical mayflies may be especially imperiled by climate warming. Given such variation among species, broad generalizations about the vulnerability of tropical ectotherms should be made more cautiously.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross‐validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland‐dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross‐validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross‐validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross‐validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).