Trees, carbon, and the psychology of landscapes

Mitigating climate change while safeguarding biodiversity and livelihoods is a major challenge. However, rampant afforestation threatens biodiversity and livelihoods, with questionable benefits to carbon storage. The narrative of landscape degradation is often applied without considering the history of the landscape. While some landscapes are undoubtedly deforested, others existed in open or mosaic states before human intervention, or have been deliberately maintained as such. In psychology, a 'fundamental attribution error' is made when characteristics are attributed without consideration of context or circumstances. We apply this concept to landscapes, and then propose a process that avoids attribution errors by testing a null hypothesis regarding past forest extent, using palaeoecology and other long-term data, alongside ecological and stakeholder knowledge.

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

Tackling climate change at the city level: insights from Lighthouse Cities' climate mitigation efforts

Introduction

The link between lifestyles and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions has prioritized climate mitigation strategies of cities worldwide. As cities have increasingly generated GHG emissions by their industrial and transportation activities, their role in climate mitigation has gained prominence. Cities' climate mitigation policies to reduce the GHG intensity of their residents' daily lives are one of their significant efforts to tackle climate change. Lighthouse Cities (LCs), in particular, have emerged as remarkable actors in promoting lifestyle changes for their residents.

Methods

This study examines climate mitigation strategies of LCs of Climate CAMPAIGNers project, including Baku, Vilnius, Lahti, Izmir, Trujillo, Athens, Linz, Milan, Cape Town, Dublin, and Skopelos, addressing lifestyle changes by conducting an expert survey in 11 LCs involving 89 respondents. The findings of the expert survey are comparatively analyzed across 11 LCs.

Results

The results show that experts form Lighthouse Cities identify increasing awareness and information provision as a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Concerning lifestyle changes, strategies toward energy efficiency and sustainable mobility are highlighted as the primary areas to be prioritized.

Discussion

This study enhances the understanding of cities' capacity to reduce their residents' GHG emissions. The findings can be utilized to identify and tailor policies for supporting the Lighthouse Cities in their climate change mitigation efforts and provide pointers for selecting the lifestyle changes that can be promoted and prioritized in Lighthouse Cities.

Carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation-Definitions and pitfalls

The term carbon (C) sequestration has not just become a buzzword but is something of a siren's call to scientific communicators and media outlets. Carbon sequestration is the removal of C from the atmosphere and the storage, for example, in soil. It has the potential to partially compensate for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is, therefore, an important piece in the global climate change mitigation puzzle. However, the term C sequestration is often used misleadingly and, while likely unintentional, can lead to the perpetuation of biased conclusions and exaggerated expectations about its contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. Soils have considerable potential to take up C but many are also in a state of continuous loss. In such soils, measures to build up soil C may only lead to a reduction in C losses (C loss mitigation) rather than result in real C sequestration and negative emissions. In an examination of 100 recent peer-reviewed papers on topics surrounding soil C, only 4% were found to have used the term C sequestration correctly. Furthermore, 13% of the papers equated C sequestration with C stocks. The review, further, revealed that measures leading to C sequestration will not always result in climate change mitigation when non-CO2 greenhouse gases and leakage are taken into consideration. This paper highlights potential pitfalls when using the term C sequestration incorrectly and calls for accurate usage of this term going forward. Revised and new terms are suggested to distinguish clearly between C sequestration in soils, SOC loss mitigation, negative emissions, climate change mitigation, SOC storage, and SOC accrual to avoid miscommunication among scientists and stakeholder groups in future.

The weekly cycle of photosynthesis in Europe reveals the negative impact of particulate pollution on ecosystem productivity

Aerosols can affect photosynthesis through radiative perturbations such as scattering and absorbing solar radiation. This biophysical impact has been widely studied using field measurements, but the sign and magnitude at continental scales remain uncertain. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), emitted by chlorophyll, strongly correlates with photosynthesis. With recent advancements in Earth observation satellites, we leverage SIF observations from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution and near-daily global coverage, to investigate the impact of aerosols on photosynthesis. Our analysis reveals that on weekends when there is more plant-available sunlight due to less particulate pollution, 64% of regions across Europe show increased SIF, indicating more photosynthesis. Moreover, we find a widespread negative relationship between SIF and aerosol loading across Europe. This suggests the possible reduction in photosynthesis as aerosol levels increase, particularly in ecosystems limited by light availability. By considering two plausible scenarios of improved air quality-reducing aerosol levels to the weekly minimum 3-d values and levels observed during the COVID-19 period-we estimate a potential of 41 to 50 Mt net additional annual CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems in Europe. This work assesses human impacts on photosynthesis via aerosol pollution at continental scales using satellite observations. Our results highlight i) the use of spatiotemporal variations in satellite SIF to estimate the human impacts on photosynthesis and ii) the potential of reducing particulate pollution to enhance ecosystem productivity.

Engineering carbon sequestration on arid lands

To limit the effects of global warming, arid lands, which constitute approximately one-third of terrestrial surfaces and are not utilized for agriculture, could serve as an effective method for long-term carbon (C) storage. We propose that soil-plant-microbiome engineering with oxalogenic plants and oxalotrophic microbes could facilitate C sequestration on a global scale.

Near-term investments in forest management support long-term carbon sequestration capacity in forests of the United States

The forest carbon sink of the United States offsets emissions in other sectors. Recently passed US laws include important climate legislation for wildfire reduction, forest restoration, and forest planting. In this study, we examine how wildfire reduction strategies and planting might alter the forest carbon sink. Our results suggest that wildfire reduction strategies reduce carbon sequestration potential in the near term but provide a longer term benefit. Planting initiatives increase carbon sequestration but at levels that do not offset lost sequestration from wildfire reduction strategies. We conclude that recent legislation may increase near-term carbon emissions due to fuel treatments and reduced wildfire frequency and intensity, and expand long-term US carbon sink strength.

US climate policy yields water quality cobenefits in the Mississippi Basin and Gulf of Mexico

We utilize a coupled economy-agroecology-hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government's social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO2-equivalents) to fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits.

Carbon-biodiversity relationships in a highly diverse subtropical forest

Carbon-focused climate mitigation strategies are becoming increasingly important in forests. However, with ongoing biodiversity declines we require better knowledge of how much such strategies account for biodiversity. We particularly lack information across multiple trophic levels and on established forests, where the interplay between carbon stocks, stand age, and tree diversity might influence carbon-biodiversity relationships. Using a large dataset (>4600 heterotrophic species of 23 taxonomic groups) from secondary, subtropical forests, we tested how multitrophic diversity and diversity within trophic groups relate to aboveground, belowground, and total carbon stocks at different levels of tree species richness and stand age. Our study revealed that aboveground carbon, the key component of climate-based management, was largely unrelated to multitrophic diversity. By contrast, total carbon stocks-that is, including belowground carbon-emerged as a significant predictor of multitrophic diversity. Relationships were nonlinear and strongest for lower trophic levels, but nonsignificant for higher trophic level diversity. Tree species richness and stand age moderated these relationships, suggesting long-term regeneration of forests may be particularly effective in reconciling carbon and biodiversity targets. Our findings highlight that biodiversity benefits of climate-oriented management need to be evaluated carefully, and only maximizing aboveground carbon may fail to account for biodiversity conservation requirements.

Gas Flaring in Nigeria: A Multi-level Governance and Policy Coherence Analysis

The unnecessary flaring of natural gas impacts public and environmental health, contributes to climate change and wastes fuel resources. Though reducing flaring is an emergent global environmental governance priority, progress has been slow. We assess gas flaring policy in the critical case of Nigeria through multi-level governance (MLG) structure. Our analysis assesses policy coherence (leading to progress in reaching shared goals) and divergence (creating tension and undermining progress) amongst sectors and institutional structures across the supranational, federal, state and local government scales. A combined dataset of documents, stakeholder interviews and expert surveys is analysed using Qualitative Document Analysis (QDA) and content analysis. We identify the principal actors involved, examine the extent of gas flaring awareness and policy coherence across multiple sectors/policy domains, and assess progress towards Nigeria’s national intended contribution and national policy on climate change mitigation. We find that policy coherence around gas flaring, including efforts towards climate change mitigation, has been slowed by political partisanship, poor governance, lack of regulatory compliance, and policy conflict between environmental protection and economic development priorities. Nigeria urgently requires inclusive involvement of stakeholder voices across multiple sectors and scales of local/regional government, the strengthening of federal institutions, a revaluation of economic aspirations through revenue diversification, and leadership that can temper the power of International Oil Companies (IOCs) to exploit the complexity of the MLG structure. These actions would help the government in improving environmental justice outcomes for flaring-affected communities.

Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year^-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year^-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Carbon and climate implications of rewetting a raised bog in Ireland

Peatland rewetting has been proposed as a vital climate change mitigation tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to generate suitable conditions for the return of carbon (C) sequestration. In this study, we present annual C balances for a 5-year period at a rewetted peatland in Ireland (rewetted at the start of the study) and compare the results with an adjacent drained area (represents business-as-usual). Hydrological modelling of the 230-hectare site was carried out to determine the likely ecotopes (vegetation communities) that will develop post-rewetting and was used to inform a radiative forcing modelling exercise to determine the climate impacts of rewetting this peatland under five high-priority scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SS1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The drained area (marginal ecotope) was a net C source throughout the study and emitted 157 ± 25.5 g C m^-2  year^-1 . In contrast, the rewetted area (sub-central ecotope) was a net C sink of 78.0 ± 37.6 g C m^-2  year^-1 , despite relatively large annual methane emissions post-rewetting (average 19.3 ± 5.2 g C m^-2  year^-1 ). Hydrological modelling predicted the development of three key ecotopes at the site, with the sub-central ecotope predicted to cover 24% of the site, the sub-marginal predicted to cover 59% and the marginal predicted to cover 16%. Using these areal estimates, our radiative forcing modelling projects that under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, the site will have a warming effect on the climate until 2085 but will then have a strong cooling impact. In contrast, our modelling exercise shows that the site will never have a cooling impact under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our results confirm the importance of rapid rewetting of drained peatland sites to (a) achieve strong C emissions reductions, (b) establish optimal conditions for C sequestration and (c) set the site on a climate cooling trajectory.

Public Health Measures to Address the Impact of Climate Change on Population Health-Proceedings from a Stakeholder Workshop

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization identified climate change as the 21st century's biggest health threat. This study aimed to identify the current knowledge base, evidence gaps, and implications for climate action and health policymaking to address the health impact of climate change, including in the most underserved groups.

METHODS

The Horizon-funded project ENBEL ('Enhancing Belmont Research Action to support EU policy making on climate change and health') organised a workshop at the 2021-European Public Health conference. Following presentations of mitigation and adaptation strategies, seven international researchers and public health experts participated in a panel discussion linking climate change and health. Two researchers transcribed and thematically analysed the panel discussion recording.

RESULTS

Four themes were identified: (1) 'Evidence is key' in leading the climate debate, (2) the need for 'messaging about health for policymaking and behaviour change' including health co-benefits of climate action, (3) existing 'inequalities between and within countries', and (4) 'insufficient resources and funding' to implement national health adaptation plans and facilitate evidence generation and climate action, particularly in vulnerable populations.

CONCLUSION

More capacity is needed to monitor health effects and inequities, evaluate adaptation and mitigation interventions, address current under-representations of low- or middle-income countries, and translate research into effective policymaking.

Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. We outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach.

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming

This study clarifies the need for comprehensive CO₂ and non-CO₂ mitigation approaches to address both near-term and long-term warming. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for nearly half of all climate forcing from GHG. However, the importance of non-CO₂ pollutants, in particular short-lived climate pollutants, in climate mitigation has been underrepresented. When historical emissions are partitioned into fossil fuel (FF)- and non-FF-related sources, we find that nearly half of the positive forcing from FF and land-use change sources of CO₂ emissions has been masked by coemission of cooling aerosols. Pairing decarbonization with mitigation measures targeting non-CO₂ pollutants is essential for limiting not only the near-term (next 25 y) warming but also the 2100 warming below 2 °C.

The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO₂ and non-CO₂ climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO₂ emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO₂ climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N₂O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO₂ targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO₂ and targeted non-CO₂ mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.

Nationwide and Regional PM2.5-Related Air Quality Health Benefits From the Removal of Energy-Related Emissions in the United States

Clean energy policy can provide substantial health benefits through improved air quality. As ambitious clean energy proposals are increasingly considered and adopted across the United States (US), quantifying the benefits of removal of such large air pollution emissions sources is crucial to understanding potential societal impacts of such policy. In this study, we estimate health benefits resulting from the elimination of emissions of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from the electric power, transportation, building, and industrial sectors in the contiguous US. We use EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment screening tool to estimate health benefits resulting from the removal of PM_2.5-related emissions from these energy-related sectors. We find that nationwide efforts to eliminate energy-related emissions could prevent 53,200 (95% CI: 46,900-59,400) premature deaths each year and provide $608 billion ($537-$678 billion) in benefits from avoided PM_2.5-related illness and death. We also find that an average of 69% (range: 32%-95%) of the health benefits from emissions removal remain in the emitting region. Our study provides an indication of the potential scale and distribution of public health benefits that could result from ambitious regional and nationwide clean energy and climate mitigation policy.

Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions

The climate crisis threatens to exacerbate numerous climate-sensitive health risks, including heatwave mortality, malnutrition from reduced crop yields, water- and vector-borne infectious diseases, and respiratory illness from smog, ozone, allergenic pollen, and wildfires. Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stress the urgent need for action to mitigate climate change, underscoring the need for more scientific assessment of the benefits of climate action for health and wellbeing. Project Drawdown has analyzed more than 80 solutions to address climate change, building on existing technologies and practices, that could be scaled to collectively limit warming to between 1.5° and 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The solutions span nine major sectors and are aggregated into three groups: reducing the sources of emissions, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks, and addressing social inequities. Here we present an overview of how climate solutions in these three areas can benefit human health through improved air quality, increased physical activity, healthier diets, reduced risk of infectious disease, and improved sexual and reproductive health, and universal education. We find that the health benefits of a low-carbon society are more substantial and more numerous than previously realized and should be central to policies addressing climate change. Much of the existing literature focuses on health effects in high-income countries, however, and more research is needed on health and equity implications of climate solutions, especially in the Global South. We conclude that adding the myriad health benefits across multiple climate change solutions can likely add impetus to move climate policies faster and further.

Climate Mitigation through Biological Conservation: Extensive and Valuable Blue Carbon Natural Capital in Tristan da Cunha's Giant Marine Protected Zone

Simple Summary

Solving biodiversity loss and climate change are part of the same problem; intact natural habitats can provide powerful and efficient climate mitigation if protected. Beyond the land (forests), there is little appreciation of just how important ocean nature is to climate mitigation. Carbon captured, stored and the rate at which it is buried (sequestration) by marine organisms is called blue carbon. We measured how much blue carbon occurs around the remote islands and seamounts of the Tristan da Cunha archipelago Marine Protected Zone (MPZ). We estimated that there are 300 tonnes of carbon (tC) captured in seaweed biomass each year, a proportion of which will sink and become a part of the long-term sediment carbon store. In deeper water we found a standing stock of ~2.3 million tC in the shallowest 1000 m depths, of which equivalent to 0.8 million t of carbon dioxide has the potential to be sequestered. At current carbon prices, and were it to attract blue carbon credits, £24 million worth of blue carbon can potentially be sequestered from the standing stock of this small United Kingdom Overseas Territory. This standing stock is protected and growth could, therefore, generate an additional £3.5 million worth of sequestered carbon a year, making it an unrecognized major component of the local economy. The economic return on this example MPZ probably ranks highly amongst climate mitigation schemes. The message is that placing meaningful protection to carbon-rich natural habitats can massively help society fight climate change and biodiversity loss. Nations who provide this protection should be fairly compensated, particularly where it comes at the detriment of other economic uses of marine habitats.

Abstract

Carbon-rich habitats can provide powerful climate mitigation if meaningful protection is put in place. We attempted to quantify this around the Tristan da Cunha archipelago Marine Protected Area. Its shallows (<1000 m depth) are varied and productive. The 5.4 km² of kelp stores ~60 tonnes of carbon (tC) and may export ~240 tC into surrounding depths. In deep-waters we analysed seabed data collected from three research cruises, including seabed mapping, camera imagery, seabed oceanography and benthic samples from mini-Agassiz trawl. Rich biological assemblages on seamounts significantly differed to the islands and carbon storage had complex drivers. We estimate ~2.3 million tC are stored in benthic biodiversity of waters <1000 m, which includes >0.22 million tC that can be sequestered (the proportion of the carbon captured that is expected to become buried in sediment or locked away in skeletal tissue for at least 100 years). Much of this carbon is captured by cold-water coral reefs as a mixture of inorganic (largely calcium carbonate) and organic compounds. As part of its 2020 Marine Protection Strategy, these deep-water reef systems are now protected by a full bottom-trawling ban throughout Tristan da Cunha and representative no take areas on its seamounts. This small United Kingdom Overseas Territory’s reef systems represent approximately 0.8 Mt CO₂ equivalent sequestered carbon; valued at >£24 Million GBP (at the UN shadow price of carbon). Annual productivity of this protected standing stock generates an estimated £3 million worth of sequestered carbon a year, making it an unrecognized and potentially major component of the economy of small island nations like Tristan da Cunha. Conservation of near intact habitats are expected to provide strong climate and biodiversity returns, which are exemplified by this MPA.

The Rhode Island Climate Change and Health Program: Building Knowledge and Community Resilience

Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, meaning vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate burden of its effects. Improving climate resiliency is a key strategy to help the Rhode Island Department of Health meet its overarching goals of addressing the socio-economic and environmental determinants of health for all Rhode Islanders. The Climate Change and Health Program focuses on both the immediate health impacts of climate change and building resiliency. Part of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Climate Ready States and Cities Initiative, the Program has partnered with community groups and other state and local agencies to bring technical assistance, educational resources, and funding to support community resilience to the challenges presented by the already changing climate. Specific projects discussed include the extreme heat communications plan and outdoor worker campaign; community-driven resiliency projects in response to flooding and natural hazards, and improving resilience in senior citizen housing.

Diurnal variability in soil nitrous oxide emissions is a widespread phenomenon

Manual measurements of nitrous oxide (N₂ O) emissions with static chambers are commonly practised. However, they generally do not consider the diurnal variability of N₂ O flux, and little is known about the patterns and drivers of such variability. We systematically reviewed and analysed 286 diurnal data sets of N₂ O fluxes from published literature to (i) assess the prevalence and timing (day or night peaking) of diurnal N₂ O flux patterns in agricultural and forest soils, (ii) examine the relationship between N₂ O flux and soil temperature with different diurnal patterns, (iii) identify whether non-diurnal factors (i.e. land management and soil properties) influence the occurrence of diurnal patterns and (iv) evaluate the accuracy of estimating cumulative N₂ O emissions with single-daily flux measurements. Our synthesis demonstrates that diurnal N₂ O flux variability is a widespread phenomenon in agricultural and forest soils. Of the 286 data sets analysed, ~80% exhibited diurnal N₂ O patterns, with ~60% peaking during the day and ~20% at night. Contrary to many published observations, our analysis only found strong positive correlations (R > 0.7) between N₂ O flux and soil temperature in one-third of the data sets. Soil drainage property, soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) level and land use were also found to potentially influence the occurrence of certain diurnal patterns. Our work demonstrated that single-daily flux measurements at mid-morning yielded daily emission estimates with the smallest average bias compared to measurements made at other times of day, however, it could still lead to significant over- or underestimation due to inconsistent diurnal N₂ O patterns. This inconsistency also reflects the inaccuracy of using soil temperature to predict the time of daily average N₂ O flux. Future research should investigate the relationship between N₂ O flux and other diurnal parameters, such as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and root exudation, along with the consideration of the effects of soil moisture, drainage and land use on the diurnal patterns of N₂ O flux. The information could be incorporated in N₂ O emission prediction models to improve accuracy.

Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under:The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation.

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system to supply electricity to end-users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. These results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

Bioenergy Crops for Low Warming Targets Require Half of the Present Agricultural Fertilizer Use

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for removing CO₂ from the atmosphere over time to achieve climate mitigation. However, an overlooked impact of BECCS is the amount of nutrients required to sustain the production. Here, we use an observation-driven approach to estimate the future bioenergy biomass production for land-use scenarios maximizing BECCS and the pertaining nutrient requirements. The projected global biomass production during the 21st century is comparable to the CO₂ removal target for 2 °C warming scenarios. However, 9-19% of this future production hinges on agrotechnology improvement, which remains uncertain. Additional nutrients from fertilizers, corresponding to 56.8 ± 6.1% of the present-day agricultural fertilizer, will be needed to replenish the nutrients removed in harvested biomass at the end of the century, resulting in additional costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Our study reveals the nutrient challenges associated with BECCS and calls for additional management efforts to grow bioenergy crops in a sustainable way.

Integrating Air Quality and Public Health Benefits in U.S. Decarbonization Strategies

Research on air quality and human health “co-benefits” from climate mitigation strategies represents a growing area of policy-relevant scholarship. Compared to other aspects of climate and energy policy evaluation, however, there are still relatively few of these co-benefits analyses. This sparsity reflects a historical disconnect between research quantifying energy and climate, and research dealing with air quality and health. The air quality co-benefits of climate, clean energy, and transportation electrification policies are typically assessed with models spanning social, physical, chemical, and biological systems. This review article summarizes studies to date and presents methods used for these interdisciplinary analyses. Studies in the peer-reviewed literature (n = 26) have evaluated carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and clean transportation. A number of major findings have emerged from these studies: [1] decarbonization strategies can reduce air pollution disproportionally on the most polluted days; [2] renewable energy deployment and climate policies offer the highest health and economic benefits in regions with greater reliance on coal generation; [3] monetized air quality health co-benefits can offset costs of climate policy implementation; [4] monetized co-benefits typically exceed the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies; [5] Electric vehicle (EV) adoption generally improves air quality on peak pollution days, but can result in ozone dis-benefits in urban centers due to the titration of ozone with nitrogen oxides. Drawing from these published studies, we review the state of knowledge on climate co-benefits to air quality and health, identifying opportunities for policy action and further research.

Plants with less chlorophyll: A global change perspective

The necessary reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may lead in the future to an increase in solar irradiance (solar brightening). Anthropogenic aerosols (and their precursors) that cause solar dimming are in fact often co-emitted with GHGs. While the reduction of GHG emissions is expected to slow down the ongoing increase in the greenhouse effect, an increased surface irradiance due to reduced atmospheric aerosol load might occur in the most populated areas of the earth. Increased irradiance may lead to air warming, favour the occurrence of heatwaves and increase the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. This is why effective and sustainable solar radiation management strategies to reflect more light back to space should be designed, tested and implemented together with GHG emission mitigation. Here we propose that new plants (crops, orchards and forests) with low-chlorophyll (Chl) content may provide a realistic, sustainable and relatively simple solution to increase surface reflectance of large geographical areas via changes in surface albedo. This may finally offset all or part of the expected local solar brightening. While high-Chl content provides substantial competitive advantages to plants growing in their natural environment, new plants with low-Chl content may be successfully used in agriculture and silviculture and be as productive as the green wildtypes (or even more). The most appropriate strategies to obtain highly productive and highly reflective plants are discussed in this paper and their mitigation potential is examined together with the challenges associated with their introduction in agriculture.

Forest policy and management approaches for carbon dioxide removal

Forests increasingly will be used for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as a natural climate solution, and the implementation of forest-based CDR presents a complex public policy challenge. In this paper, our goal is to review a range of policy tools in place to support use of forests for CDR and demonstrate how concepts from the policy design literature can inform our understanding of this domain. We explore how the utilization of different policy tools shapes our ability to use forests to mitigate and adapt to climate change and consider the challenges of policy mixes and integration, taking a close look at three areas of international forest policy, including the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and voluntary carbon offset markets. As it is our expertise, we then examine in detail the case of the USA as a country that lacks aggressive implementation of national climate policies but has potential to increase CDR through reforestation and existing forest management on both public and private land. For forest-based CDR to succeed, a wide array of policy tools will have to be implemented in a variety of contexts with an eye towards overcoming the challenges of policy design with regard to uncertainty in policy outcomes, policy coherence around managing forests for carbon simultaneously with other goals and integration across governance contexts and levels.

National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems—to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO₂e yr⁻¹ at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO₂e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Evidence that a national REDD+ program reduces tree cover loss and carbon emissions in a high forest cover, low deforestation country

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a climate change mitigation policy in which rich countries provide payments to developing countries for protecting their forests. In 2009, the countries of Norway and Guyana entered into one of the first bilateral REDD+ programs, with Norway offering to pay US$250 million to Guyana if annual deforestation rates remained below 0.056% from 2010 to 2015. To quantify the impact of this national REDD+ program, we construct a counterfactual times-series trajectory of annual tree cover loss using synthetic matching. This analytical approach allows us to quantify tree cover loss that would have occurred in the absence of the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program. We found that the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program reduced tree cover loss by 35% during the implementation period (2010 to 2015), equivalent to 12.8 million tons of avoided CO₂ emissions. Our analysis indicates that national REDD+ payments attenuated the effect of increases in gold prices, an internationally traded commodity that is the primary deforestation driver in Guyana. Overall, we found strong evidence that the program met the additionality criteria of REDD+. However, we found that tree cover loss increased after the payments ended, and therefore, our results suggest that without continued payments, forest protection is not guaranteed. On the issue of leakage, which is complex and difficult to quantify, a multinational REDD+ program for a region could address leakage that results from differences in forest policies between neighboring countries.

Carbon consequences of drought differ in forests that resprout

Prolonged drought and intense heat-related events trigger sudden forest die-off events and have now been reported from all forested continents. Such die-offs are concerning given that drought and heatwave events are forecast to increase in severity and duration as climate change progresses. Quantifying consequences to carbon dynamics and storage from die-off events are critical for determining the current and future mitigation potential of forests. We took stand measurements five times over 2+ years from affected and unaffected plots across the Northern Jarrah Forest, southwestern Australia, following an acute drought/heatwave in 2011. We found a significant loss of live standing carbon (49.3 t ha^-1 ), and subsequently a significant increase in the dead standing carbon pool by 6 months post-die-off. Of the persisting live trees, 38% experienced partial mortality contributing to the rapid regrowth and replenishment (82%-88%) of labile carbon pools (foliage, twigs, and branches) within 26 months. Such regrowth was not substantial in terms of net carbon changes within the timeframe of the study but does reflect the resprouting resilience of this forest type. Dead carbon generated by the die-off may persist for centuries given low fragmentation and decay rates resulting in low biogenic emission rates relative to other forest types. However, future fire may threaten persistence of both dead and live pools via combustion and mortality of live tissue and impaired regrowth capacity. Resprouting forests are commonly regarded as resilient systems, however, a changing climate could see vulnerable portions of forests become carbon sources rather than carbon sinks.

The physics and ecology of mining carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by ecosystems

Reforesting and managing ecosystems have been proposed as ways to mitigate global warming and offset anthropogenic carbon emissions. The intent of our opinion piece is to provide a perspective on how well plants and ecosystems sequester carbon. The ability of individual plants and ecosystems to mine carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as defined by rates and cumulative amounts, is limited by laws of physics and ecological principles. Consequently, the rates and amount of net carbon uptake are slow and low compared to the rates and amounts of carbon dioxide we release by fossil fuels combustion. Managing ecosystems to sequester carbon can also cause unintended consequences to arise. In this paper, we articulate a series of key take-home points. First, the potential amount of carbon an ecosystem can assimilate on an annual basis scales with absorbed sunlight, which varies with latitude, leaf area index and available water. Second, efforts to improve photosynthesis will come with the cost of more respiration. Third, the rates and amount of net carbon uptake are relatively slow and low, compared to the rates and amounts and rates of carbon dioxide we release by fossil fuels combustion. Fourth, huge amounts of land area for ecosystems will be needed to be an effective carbon sink to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. Fifth, the effectiveness of using this land as a carbon sink will depend on its ability to remain as a permanent carbon sink. Sixth, converting land to forests or wetlands may have unintended costs that warm the local climate, such as changing albedo, increasing surface roughness or releasing other greenhouse gases. We based our analysis on 1,163 site-years of direct eddy covariance measurements of gross and net carbon fluxes from 155 sites across the globe.

Environmental Screening of Electrode Materials for a Rechargeable Aluminum Battery with an AlCl₃/EMIMCl Electrolyte

Recently, rechargeable aluminum batteries have received much attention due to their low cost, easy operation, and high safety. As the research into rechargeable aluminum batteries with a room-temperature ionic liquid electrolyte is relatively new, research efforts have focused on finding suitable electrode materials. An understanding of the environmental aspects of electrode materials is essential to make informed and conscious decisions in aluminum battery development. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the relative environmental performance of electrode material candidates for rechargeable aluminum batteries with an AlCl₃/EMIMCl (1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride) room-temperature ionic liquid electrolyte. To this end, we used a lifecycle environmental screening framework to evaluate 12 candidate electrode materials. We found that all of the studied materials are associated with one or more drawbacks and therefore do not represent a “silver bullet” for the aluminum battery. Even so, some materials appeared more promising than others did. We also found that aluminum battery technology is likely to face some of the same environmental challenges as Li-ion technology but also offers an opportunity to avoid others. The insights provided here can aid aluminum battery development in an environmentally sustainable direction.

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests

Regional quantification of feasibility and effectiveness of forest strategies to mitigate climate change should integrate observations and mechanistic ecosystem process models with future climate, CO₂, disturbances from fire, and management. Here, we demonstrate this approach in a high biomass region, and found that reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increased net ecosystem carbon balance by 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Forest sector emissions tracked with our life cycle assessment model decreased by 17%, partially meeting emissions reduction goals. Harvest residue bioenergy use did not reduce short-term emissions. Cobenefits include increased water availability and biodiversity of forest species. Our improved analysis framework can be used in other temperate regions.

Strategies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions through forestry activities have been proposed, but ecosystem process-based integration of climate change, enhanced CO₂, disturbance from fire, and management actions at regional scales are extremely limited. Here, we examine the relative merits of afforestation, reforestation, management changes, and harvest residue bioenergy use in the Pacific Northwest. This region represents some of the highest carbon density forests in the world, which can store carbon in trees for 800 y or more. Oregon’s net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was equivalent to 72% of total emissions in 2011–2015. By 2100, simulations show increased net carbon uptake with little change in wildfires. Reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increase NECB 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Resultant cobenefits included water availability and biodiversity, primarily from increased forest area, age, and species diversity. Converting 127,000 ha of irrigated grass crops to native forests could decrease irrigation demand by 233 billion m³⋅y⁻¹. Utilizing harvest residues for bioenergy production instead of leaving them in forests to decompose increased emissions in the short-term (50 y), reducing mitigation effectiveness. Increasing forest carbon on public lands reduced emissions compared with storage in wood products because the residence time is more than twice that of wood products. Hence, temperate forests with high carbon densities and lower vulnerability to mortality have substantial potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Our analysis framework provides a template for assessments in other temperate regions.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

Background

Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making.

Methods/Design

We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission 'Managing the health effects of climate change' through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes.

Results/Synthesis

Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system.

Discussion

Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Natural climate solutions

Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO₂ equivalent (PgCO₂e) y⁻¹ (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO₂e y⁻¹) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO₂ pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO₂e⁻¹ by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO₂⁻¹. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

Wetland methane (CH₄) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH₄ budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO₂, CH₄ is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH₄ feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH₄ emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH₄ emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH₄ emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH₄ emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH₄ feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m^-2 to 0.19 W·m^-2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH₄ emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH₄ emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH₄ feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Mitigating Climate Change at the Carbon Water Nexus: A Call to Action for the Environmental Engineering Community

Environmental engineers have played a critical role in improving human and ecosystem health over the past several decades. These contributions have focused on providing clean water and air as well as managing waste streams and remediating polluted sites. As environmental problems have become more global in scale and more deeply entrenched in sociotechnical systems, the discipline of environmental engineering must grow to be ready to respond to the challenges of the coming decades. Here we make the case that environmental engineers should play a leadership role in the development of climate change mitigation technologies at the carbon-water nexus (CWN). Climate change, driven largely by unfettered emissions of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, is a far-reaching and enormously complex environmental risk with the potential to negatively affect food security, human health, infrastructure, and other systems. Solving this problem will require a massive mobilization of existing and innovative new technology. The environmental engineering community is uniquely positioned to do pioneering work at the CWN using a skillset that has been honed, solving related problems. The focus of this special issue, on "The science and innovation of emerging subsurface energy technologies," provides one example domain within which environmental engineers and related disciplines are beginning to make important contributions at the CWN. In this article, we define the CWN and describe how environmental engineers can bring their considerable expertise to bear in this area. Then we review some of the topics that appear in this special issue, for example, mitigating the impacts of hydraulic fracturing and geologic carbon storage, and we provide perspective on emergent research directions, for example, enhanced geothermal energy, energy storage in sedimentary formations, and others.

Uncertainty as knowledge

This issue of Philosophical Transactions examines the relationship between scientific uncertainty about climate change and knowledge. Uncertainty is an inherent feature of the climate system. Considerable effort has therefore been devoted to understanding how to effectively respond to a changing, yet uncertain climate. Politicians and the public often appeal to uncertainty as an argument to delay mitigative action. We argue that the appropriate response to uncertainty is exactly the opposite: uncertainty provides an impetus to be concerned about climate change, because greater uncertainty increases the risks associated with climate change. We therefore suggest that uncertainty can be a source of actionable knowledge. We survey the papers in this issue, which address the relationship between uncertainty and knowledge from physical, economic and social perspectives. We also summarize the pervasive psychological effects of uncertainty, some of which may militate against a meaningful response to climate change, and we provide pointers to how those difficulties may be ameliorated.

Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars

Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment.

Comparative metatranscriptomics identifies molecular bases for the physiological responses of phytoplankton to varying iron availability

In vast expanses of the oceans, growth of large phytoplankton such as diatoms is limited by iron availability. Diatoms respond almost immediately to the delivery of iron and rapidly compose the majority of phytoplankton biomass. The molecular bases underlying the subsistence of diatoms in iron-poor waters and the plankton community dynamics that follow iron resupply remain largely unknown. Here we use comparative metatranscriptomics to identify changes in gene expression associated with iron-stimulated growth of diatoms and other eukaryotic plankton. A microcosm iron-enrichment experiment using mixed-layer waters from the northeastern Pacific Ocean resulted in increased proportions of diatom transcripts and reduced proportions of transcripts from most other taxa within 98 h after iron addition. Hundreds of diatom genes were differentially expressed in the iron-enriched community compared with the iron-limited community; transcripts of diatom genes required for synthesis of photosynthesis and chlorophyll components, nitrate assimilation and the urea cycle, and synthesis of carbohydrate storage compounds were significantly overrepresented. Transcripts of genes encoding rhodopsins in eukaryotic phytoplankton were significantly underrepresented following iron enrichment, suggesting rhodopsins help cells cope with low-iron conditions. Oceanic diatoms appear to display a distinctive transcriptional response to iron enrichment that allows chemical reduction of available nitrogen and carbon sources along with a continued dependence on iron-free photosynthetic proteins rather than substituting for iron-containing functional equivalents present within their gene repertoire. This ability of diatoms to divert their newly acquired iron toward nitrate assimilation may underlie why diatoms consistently dominate iron enrichments in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll regions.