The spread in time and space of COVID-19 pandemic waves: the Italian experience from mortality data analyses

Introduction

Italy was the first European country affected by COVID-19. Thanks to governmental containment measures (9 March 2020), the spread of COVID-19 was limited. However, in this context, accurate data assessment is crucial and mortality is a more reliable indicator of the virus spread compared to the count of positive cases. This study aimed to retrospectively evaluate the impact of the pandemic in different areas of Italy using the time series analysis of official deaths and excess COVID-19 deaths.

Methods

Mortality data (23 February-30 April 2022) by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT) were analyzed, including four waves of COVID-19. Previous mortality data (January 2015-November 2019) were used to estimate a Poisson regression model of the pre-pandemic mortality pattern and derive the excess COVID-19 deaths as the difference between the actual deaths number and the extrapolation of the previous mortality pattern to the pandemic period, separately for Northern, Central, and Southern Italy, to compare the impact of mortality across time periods and geographical areas.

Results

Estimated excess compared with official COVID-19 mortality shows that, during the first wave, there was an underestimation of deaths. COVID-19 mortality rate almost doubled the official rate in the North (1.60‰ vs. 0.86‰) and nearly tripled it in the South (0.22‰ vs. 0.08‰). In late 2020-early 2021, official and estimated mortality curves are closer, displaying just a small gap at the start of the second wave. During the fourth wave (end of 2021-early 2022), Northern and Central Italy show reasonable agreement; the South presents a large relative underestimation of deaths (+90% increase), with a large increase in its excess deaths national quota, 9% in the first wave to 42% in the fourth.

Discussion

The results provide a measure of the COVID-19 excess deaths and an unbiased estimate of Italian mortality rates. In the first wave, the gap between official COVID-19 and excess mortality was particularly high and lockdown measures may have reduced the spread of the infection. In the fourth wave, the gap for the South increases again, probably because the healthcare system may not have coped with the prolonged pressure of the pandemic, or for a decreased compliance with the official paper-based mortality surveillance system that could be overcome in the future by digitalizing the process.

General infection prevention, mitigation, and control procedures implemented in the university education during the COVID-19 pandemic to achieve classroom attendance: a successful community case study

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic entailed confinement and elimination of face-to-face university classes in Spain. The Francisco de Vitoria University in Madrid (UFV by its Spanish acronym) implemented risk management systems to enable on-campus university activity to avoid a negative impact on students, teachers, and faculties.

Methods

A tracking/registry system was implemented to collect data, identify COVID-19-related cases, implement containment measures, and do follow-up in the UFV community (administration/services personnel [ASP], teaching/research personnel [TRP], and students), from September 2020 to April 2022. In addition, a prevention plan was implemented on campus to avoid COVID-19 spreading. Satisfaction with these measures was assessed through an online questionnaire.

Results

A total of 7,165 suspected COVID-19 cases (84.7% students, 7.7% ASP, 6.5% TRP) were tracked (62.5% female cases, mean age (±SD) 24.8 years (±9.2 years)), and 45% of them confirmed (82% symptomatic/16% asymptomatic), being the student group that with the highest percentage (38.3% total tracked cases). The source of infection was identified in 50.6% of the confirmed cases (90.2% located off-campus). Nineteen COVID-19 outbreaks were registered (inside-10/outside-9). COVID-19 incidence rates were similar or lower than those reported in the Community of Madrid, except in the last wave, corresponding to Omicron variant. The degree of satisfaction (scale 1-6) with the implemented measures was high (scores 4.48-5.44).

Conclusion

During the COVID-19 pandemic, UFV control measures, periodic monitoring, and the effectiveness of the tracking system have contributed to maintaining classroom teaching, guaranteeing health and safety. UFV has adapted to a new reality as an example of good practice for future pandemics or emergency situations.

The role of civic capital on vaccination

Can civic-minded individuals fight against a pandemic? In this paper, we show that civic capital plays an important role when assessing the level of compliance with COVID-19 vaccination recommendations. Analyzing data on a large sample of municipalities from the Italian region of Lombardy, we show that the share of vaccinated individuals is significantly higher in municipalities with higher pre-determined levels of civic capital. These findings are robust to the possibility of spatial spillovers across neighboring municipalities. Our findings contribute to the existing evidence highlighting the importance of individual contributions and civic capital as important behavioral determinants affecting the containment of infectious diseases.

Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade☆

Combining Spanish firm-level monthly trade data with country-level Covid-19 containment measures over February–July 2020, we show that the value of exports decreased more in destinations that introduced strict containment measures, whereas the value of imports remained unaffected. Strict containment measures in a partner country increased the probability of a firm ceasing to trade with it. Negative effects were concentrated between March and May 2020. The detrimental effect of containment on exports was larger in destinations where the share of jobs that could be done remotely was low, for goods consumed outside the household, for wholesalers and retailers, and for manufacturers not participating in global value chains.

Investigating the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Economy and the Corresponding Entrepreneurship Support Measures in Europe

Covid-19 pandemic continues to cause great losses in human lives and adverse consequences in many sectors of the EU economy. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of the pandemic in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in culture - entertainment industry and to investigate the effectiveness of the corresponding entrepreneurship support measures have been taken. This review was conducted based on related articles that were published during the years 2020-2021, using the online databases of Google Scholar, Science Direct, Elsevier, PubMed, OECD, IOBE. A total of 16 eligible studies were included in this literature review. EU authorities have launched measures, setting up policy and funding instruments to mobilize the economy. The impact of these measures is of great significance for many EU countries and sectors. However, measures taken for small and medium-sized enterprises, tourism and culture were not evaluated effectively to get the sectors back on track. Those measures were effective in short term and were insufficient to boost the recovery of the EU economy in long term. Since Covid-19 still exists, the fear of a recurrence is fed back. Long-term support measures need to be re-evaluated and new strategies must be established, that will set, sustainability criteria for companies, according to future investment and development policies.

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

This paper examines the economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures using daily global data on containment measures, infections, and economic activity indicators, such as Nitrogen Dioxide (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathrm{NO}}_{2})$$\end{document}NO2) emissions, international and domestic flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures had a significant impact on economic activity—equivalent to about a 10 percent loss in industrial production over 30 days following their implementation. Easing of containment measures results in an increase in economic activity, but the effect is lower (in absolute value) to that of tightening. Fiscal measures used to mitigate the crisis were effective in partly offsetting these costs. We also find that school closures and cancellation of public events are among the most effective measures in curbing infections and are associated with low economic costs. Other highly effective measures like workplace closures and international travel restrictions are among the costliest in economic terms.

Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care utilization related to common mental disorders in four European countries: A retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is commonly believed to have increased common mental disorders (CMD, i.e., depression and anxiety), either directly due to COVID-19 contractions (death of near ones or residual conditions), or indirectly by increasing stress, economic uncertainty, and disruptions in daily life resulting from containment measure. Whereas studies reporting on initial changes in self-reported data frequently have reported increases in CMD, pandemic related changes in CMD related to primary care utilization are less well known. Analyzing time series of routinely and continuously sampled primary healthcare data from Sweden, Norway, Netherlands, and Latvia, we aimed to characterize the impact of the pandemic on CMD recorded prevalence in primary care. Furthermore, by relating these changes to country specific time-trajectories of two classes of containment measures, we evaluated the differential impact of containment strategies on CMD rates. Specifically, we wanted to test whether school restrictions would preferentially affect age groups corresponding to those of school children or their parents.

METHODS

For the four investigated countries, we collected time-series of monthly counts of unique CMD patients in primary healthcare from the year 2015 (or 2017) until 2021. Using pre-pandemic timepoints to train seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we predicted healthcare utilization during the pandemic. Discrepancies between observed and expected time series were quantified to infer pandemic related changes. To evaluate the effects of COVID-19 measures on CMD related primary care utilization, the predicted time series were related to country specific time series of levels of social distancing and school restrictions.

RESULTS

In all countries except Latvia there was an initial (April 2020) decrease in CMD care prevalence, where largest drops were found in Sweden (Prevalence Ratio, PR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.81-0.90), followed by Netherlands (0.86; 95% CI 0.76-1.02) and Norway (0.90; 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Latvia on the other hand experienced increased rates (1.25; 95% CI 1.08-1.49). Whereas PRs in Norway and Netherlands normalized during the latter half of 2020, PRs stayed low in Sweden and elevated in Latvia. The overall changes in PR during the pandemic year 2020 was significantly changed only for Sweden (0.91; 95% CI 0.90-0.93) and Latvia (1.20; 95% CI 1.14-1.26). Overall, the relationship between containment measures and CMD care prevalence were weak and non-significant. In particular, we could not observe any relationship of school restriction to CMD care prevalence for the age groups best corresponding to school children or their parents.

CONCLUSION

Common mental disorders prevalence in primary care decreased during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in all countries except from Latvia, but normalized in Norway and Netherlands by the latter half of 2020. The onset of the pandemic and the containment strategies were highly correlated within each country, limiting strong conclusions on whether restriction policy had any effects on mental health. Specifically, we found no evidence of associations between school restrictions and CMD care prevalence. Overall, current results lend no support to the common belief that the pandemic severely impacted the mental health of the general population as indicated by healthcare utilization, apart from in Latvia. However, since healthcare utilization is affected by multiple factors in addition to actual need, future studies should combine complementary types of data to better understand the mental health impacts of the pandemic.

COVID-19 Related Fears of Patients Admitted to a Psychiatric Emergency Department during and Post-Lockdown in Switzerland: Preliminary Findings to Look Ahead for Tailored Preventive Mental Health Strategies

Background and Objectives: While the impact on mental health of 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) has been extensively documented, little is known about its influence on subjective fears. Here, we investigate the COVID-19 impact and its related restrictions on fears of patients admitted to a psychiatric Emergency Department (ED) during and post-lockdown. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study on 1477 consultations at the psychiatric ED of the University Hospital of Geneva (HUG) was performed using a mixed-methods analysis. The first analysis section was qualitative, aiming to explore the type of fears, while the second section statistically compared fears (i) during lockdown (16 March 2020–10 May 2020) and (ii) post-lockdown (11 May 2020–5 July 2020). Fears were also explored among different patient-age sub-groups. Results: 334 patients expressed one/more fears. Both in lockdown and post-lockdown, fears mostly pertained to “containment measures” (isolation, loneliness). When compared lockdown vs. post-lockdown, fears about “work status” (deteriorating, losing work) prevailed in lockdown (p = 0.029) while “hopelessness” (powerless feeling, inability to find solutions) in post-lockdown (p = 0.001). “Self around COVID-19” (dying, getting sick) fear was relatively more frequent in youth (p = 0.039), while “hopelessness” in the elderly (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Collectively, these findings highlight that lockdown/post-lockdown periods generated temporally and demographically distinct COVID-19 related fears patterns, with special regard to youth and elderly, two particularly vulnerable populations when faced with sudden and unexpected dramatic events. For this reason, the particular ED “front-line service” status makes it a privileged observatory that can provide novel insights. From a mental health perspective, these latter can be translated into pragmatic, more personalized prevention strategies to reinforce specific resilience resources and mitigate the current and long-term pandemic’s impact.

It won't happen to me! Psychosocial factors influencing risk perception for respiratory infectious diseases: A scoping review

Understanding the determinants of risk perception for COVID-19 might help to promote self-preventive behaviours. This scoping review aimed to map the extent, variety and characteristics of the evidence on the possible determinants of risk perception for COVID-like diseases. PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were searched for original, peer-reviewed English-written articles published up to March 2020 and investigating risk perception determinants for respiratory infectious diseases in adults. Titles and abstracts were screened, and full texts were analysed by the first author; when unsure, eligibility was discussed with the last author. Data were collected according to an extraction sheet developed by the first and last authors. The cross-sectional evidence covers a variety of diseases, countries and timings of testing. Mostly, questionnaires recorded socio-demographics, media exposure, trust in institutions, disease proximity and knowledge; psychological variables, including personality traits, distress and self-efficacy, were less investigated. A miscellaneous operationalization of risk perception emerged, including the likelihood of getting sick, perceived dangerousness, concerns or a combination of them. A comprehensive understanding of the substantial amount of evidence may be challenging due to methodological heterogeneity. Referring to uniform theoretical frameworks is recommended; also, longitudinal research may be implemented to probe causal relationships.

Evaluation of the Strategies to Control COVID-19 Pandemic in Four European Countries

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has officially declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. The national governments deployed a series of severe control measures and a set of public health policies in order to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between specific interventions and incident cases during the second wave in multiple and specific countries. The observational study was based on data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) source retrieved from October 1st, 2020 to January 10, 2021. Thirteen specific indicators related to measures adopted were considered. Four European countries were taken into account: Italy, German, Spain and UK. A vector autoregression (VAR) model and the Granger Causality test were performed to allow for an assessment of any possible effect induced by each control measure against the overall pandemic growth. Wald test was conducted to compute p-values. No correlation between the applied measures and incident cases in the four countries was shown by the Granger causality test. Only closings of workplaces (C2) and limits on private gatherings showed (C4) a significant correlation with incident cases in UK and restrictions on internal movement between cities/regions in Germany. The Granger causality also tested that C2 and C4 forecasted the decrease of incident cases after a time lag of 6–30 days in UK and Germany, respectively. Policy makers must analyze the context in which policies are set because of effectiveness of interventions can be influenced by local context and, especially, by socio-economic and demographic characteristics, and make a proper communication to support the resilience of the population capable of guaranteeing adherence to the interventions implemented.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Core Containment Measures of Imported COVID-19 Cases from Abroad in Early Phase in Guangdong, China

Objective

This study aimed to analyze the distribution characteristics and influencing factors for the interval between entering mainland China and the diagnosis of imported COVID-19 cases in Guangdong province, in order to provide valuable experience for global pandemic in prevention and control.

Methods

We collected publicly reported data between March 1 and June 2, 2020. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify the significant associated factors with the interval between entering mainland China and diagnosis of imported COVID-19 cases.

Results

As of June 2, 2020, a total of 200 imported cases were reported in Guangdong province. The average interval time was 4.25 days with a median of 2 days, the interval time of 68% cases was between 1 and 3 days. The multivariate model results show that the three following factors were critical influencing factors: nationality was foreign nationality (P = 0.037), results of initial nucleic acid detection were negative (P = 0.000) and the interval between entering mainland China and the detection of positive results (T) exceeded two days (P = 0.008).

Conclusion

The results suggested that all travelers and returning resident should be taken strict sampling and testing, and isolation measures, improved the accuracy of the initial nucleic acid test results, and the detection efficiency and shortening the interval between entering mainland China and detection of positive results.

Effects of Individual Discount Rate and Uncertainty Perception on Compliance with Containment Measures during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Anti-contagion measures restricting individual freedom, such as social distancing and wearing a mask, are crucial to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Decision-making patterns and attitudes about uncertainty can highly influence the adherence to these restrictive measures. Here we investigated the relationship between risky behavior and individual preferences for immediate vs. delayed reward, as indexed by temporal discounting (TD), as well as the association between these measures and confidence in the future, perceived risk and confidence in the containment measures. These measures were collected through an online survey administered on 353 participants at the end of the more restrictive phase of the first Italian lockdown. The results showed an unexpected inverse relationship between the individual pattern of choice preferences and risky behavior, with an overall greater adherence to containment measures in more discounter participants. These findings were interpreted in terms of a reframing process in which behaviors aimed at protecting oneself from contagion turn into immediate gains rather than losses. Interestingly, an excessive confidence in a better future was correlated with a higher tendency to assume risky behavior, thereby highlighting the downside of an overly and blindly optimistic view.

Comparison of Public Health Containment Measures of COVID-19 in China and India

Objective

This study aimed to make a comparative analysis of the public health containment measures between China and India, explore the causes of the serious COVID-19 epidemic in India, and eventually to improve global infectious disease control.

Methods

We extracted publicly available data from official websites, summarized the containment measures implemented in China and India, and assessed their effectiveness.

Results

China has responded to the COVID-19 outbreak with strict public health containment measures, including lockdown of Wuhan city, active case tracing, and large-scale testing, ultimately preventing a large increase in daily new cases and maintaining a low mortality rate per million population (as of May 5, 2021, daily new cases were 11 and mortality rate per million population was 3.37). India, although imposing a national lockdown to control the pandemic, has not implemented strict testing, tracking, and quarantine measures due to the overburdened healthcare system. Combined with massive lockdown, it has accelerated human mobility and exacerbated the epidemic, resulting in a rapid increase in daily new cases and a high mortality rate per million population (as of May 5, 2021, daily new cases were 412,431 and mortality rate per million population was 166.79).

Conclusion

China and India implemented public health containment measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic based on their national situations. Meanwhile, daily new cases and mortality of COVID-19 also were affected by environmental and socioeconomic. Countries make a comprehensive strategy not only in terms of the biological, pharmaceutical, health, and sanitation sectors but also based on sustainability science and environmental science.

An exploration of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health in South Africa

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, South Africa implemented a strict stay-at-home order. The mental health effects of the pandemic and related containment measures are minimally documented in this region. This study examines the association between COVID-19 related stressors and mental health during a strict stay-at-home order in South Africa. A total of 860 self-selected participants residing in the Western Cape province completed an online survey from 20-31 May 2020. This sample consisted mainly of higher socioeconomic and higher educated segments of the population. Structural equation modelling was used to assess how sociodemographic factors, membership of vulnerable groups and COVID-19 related stressors were associated with PHQ-9 (depression) and GAD-7 (anxiety) scores. 46.0% and 47.2% of participants met the diagnostic threshold of anxiety and depressive disorder, respectively. Considerable daily life repercussions were linked to these scores. Among these participants, less than 20% consulted a formal practitioner and this was 12% for participants without a pre-existing mental health condition. Distress related to containment measures and distress about being infected were significantly associated with more anxiety and depressive symptoms. Having a pre-existing mental health condition was associated with poorer mental health, but being an active health worker was not. Younger age, being female, and living in a non-rural area were associated with poorer mental health. Our findings suggest a considerable mental health impact of this pandemic and related containment measures, but low attendance of mental health services. The accessibility to tailored mental health support is essential under these circumstances, especially for vulnerable groups.

The indirect impact of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia in older people: a region-wide population-based study in Tuscany, Italy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the indirect effect of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older people during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Tuscany, Italy.

METHODS

A population-based study was carried out on data from the Tuscany healthcare system. The outcome measures were: hospitalization rate for CAP, severity of CAP hospitalizations, and outpatient consumption of antibacterials for CAP in people aged 65 and older. Outcomes were compared between corresponding periods in 2020 (week 1 to 27) and previous years.

RESULTS

Compared with the average of the corresponding periods in the previous 3 years, significant reductions in weekly hospitalization rates for CAP were observed from the week in which the national containment measures were imposed (week 10) until the end of the first COVID-19 wave in July (week 27). There was also a significant decrease in outpatient consumption in all antibacterial classes for CAP.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of large-scale COVID-19 containment measures likely reduced the incidence of CAP in older people during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Tuscany, Italy. Considering this indirect impact of pandemic containment measures on respiratory tract infections may improve the planning of health services during a pandemic in the future.

COVID-19 Containment Measures at Childcare and Schools in 19 European Countries: An Observational Study on Local, Federal and National Policies

Objectives: After childcare and schools have been closed in March 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19, they were open again in most European countries after the summer holidays till early autumn. Aim of this study is to give an overview and to compare COVID-19 childcare and school containment policies in 19 European countries. Methods: We collected data on containment measures among delegates of the European Academy of Pediatrics (EAP), through an online, closed questionnaire in the second half of October 2020. Results: Most policy has been formulated for secondary education. In all three settings policy was most often formulated for individual hygiene, cleaning of surfaces, exclusion of sick children, ventilation, distance between children and between children and teachers. In secondary schools, policy is formulated on face masks in and outside the class. School closure, cancellation of physical education and class size reduction are measures for which the fewest countries have formulated national policies. Conclusion: We recommend to accompany the opening of children's facilities and schools by surveillance studies that further clarify questions about control measures implemented to halt COVID-19 pandemic.

Perceived Effectiveness, Restrictiveness, and Compliance with Containment Measures against the Covid-19 Pandemic: An International Comparative Study in 11 Countries

National governments took action to delay the transmission of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) by implementing different containment measures. We developed an online survey that included 44 different containment measures. We aimed to assess how effective citizens perceive these measures, which measures are perceived as violation of citizens' personal freedoms, which opinions and demographic factors have an effect on compliance with the measures, and what governments can do to most effectively improve citizens' compliance. The survey was disseminated in 11 countries: UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, India, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. We acquired 9543 unique responses. Our findings show significant differences across countries in perceived effectiveness, restrictiveness, and compliance. Governments that suffer low levels of trust should put more effort into persuading citizens, especially men, in the effectiveness of the proposed measures. They should provide financial compensation to citizens who have lost their job or income due to the containment measures to improve measure compliance. Policymakers should implement the least restrictive and most effective public health measures first during pandemic emergencies instead of implementing a combination of many restrictive measures, which has the opposite effect on citizens' adherence and undermines human rights.

Suicides in the COVID-19 Pandemic - Are We Well Informed Regarding Current Risks and Future Prospects?

Background

Suicides are predicted to drop in the acute phase of any crisis that poses a threat to the entire population, though data on this are inconsistent. A pandemic is the most severe global crisis one can imagine. There is an urgent need to identify objective trends in suicide rates across countries and populations in a real-time manner in order to be better informed regarding prospects and adaptation of preventive strategies.

Objectives

To evaluate suicidal behaviour in a metropolis immediately after the introduction of severe containment measures due to the pandemic.

Methods

Cases of completed suicides in St. Petersburg were obtained from the local city Bureau of Forensic Medical Examinations for the period 1 January 2016 to 31 July 2020. Data were accurately collected and monthly frequencies per 100,000 of the population in April-May 2020 (introduction of the most severe stay at home measures) were compared with corresponding data from 2016-2019. Confidence intervals were calculated according to Wilson.

Results

Suicide frequencies in the population of St. Petersburg in April 2020 did not go up, in contrast, they were 30.3% lower than the average for the previous four years. The decrease in April was more pronounced in males than in females (36.3% and12.4%, respectively). When looking at age groups it was found that the biggest drop in suicides was in older males ( 55 years). In this group, suicide indices were 58.5% lower than average for the previous four years. However, in females, there was a 50% rise in suicides in June, while in young males (15-34 years) there was an 87.9% rise in May. Total number of suicides for the first half of 2020 was very close to the average seen in previous years. None of the registered changes were statistically significant.

Conclusions

The analysis is preliminary and does not account for possible seasonality, however, we consider that the reduction in completed suicides immediately after crisis exposure deserves attention. It supports views that in the acute phase of the crisis, suicidal behaviour may decline, which may be quickly replaced by a rise. Such a rise in females and younger males points on possible risk groups and requires a response from society. More studies are needed to have a clearer picture of suicide dynamics in Russia during the different waves of the pandemic, and prevention should be prioritized regardless of the tendencies.

Family exposure and the impact of containment measures to children with coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei, China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In response to the ongoing epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), China has carried out restrictive disease containment measures across the country.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we collected demographic and epidemiological data of 376 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among children younger than 18 years of age. Using descriptive statistics and odds ratios, we described the odds of exposure outside the family after the implementation of control measures compared to before.

RESULTS

Children diagnosed on or after February 4, 2020, had a lower odds of exposure to COVID-19 outside of the family compared to those diagnosed before February 3, 2020 (OR =0.594, 95% CI: 0.391 to 0.904). In the stratified analysis, children aged 0 to 5 years had the lowest odds of exposure outside of the family (OR =0.420, 95% CI: 0.196 to 0.904) compared to the other age groups assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study on the children infected with COVID-19 as well as their exposure within family provided evidence that the implementation of containment measures was effective in reducing the odds of exposure outside of the family, especially for preschool children. Continuation of these efforts, coupled with tailored prevention and health education messaging for younger aged children, may help to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 among children until other therapeutic interventions or vaccines are available.

A Transdisciplinary Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy: The Most Affected Country in Europe

As of 27 March 2020, 199 countries and territories and one international conveyance are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the same date, Italy represents the third country worldwide in total number of cases and the first one in total number of deaths. The purpose of this study is to analyse the Italian case and identify key problem questions and lessons learned from the Italian experience. The study initially provides a general overview of the country's characteristics and health care system, followed by a detailed description of the Italian epidemiological picture regarding COVID-19. Afterwards, all non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by the Government against COVID-19 are presented in chronological order. The study explores some estimations of the economic impact of the epidemic, as well as its implications for society, lifestyle, and social media reactions. Finally, the study refers to two types of mathematical models to predict the evolution of the spread of COVID-19 disease. Having considered all of the above-mentioned aspects, some significant issues can be raised, including the following: (1) the available epidemiological data presents some gaps and potential biases; (2) mathematical models always come with high levels of uncertainty; (3) the high number of deaths should be interpreted in light of the national demographic context; and (4) the long-term management of the epidemic remains an open question. In conclusion, the Italian experience definitely highlights the importance of preparedness and early action, effective interventions and risk communication.

Extensive Testing and Public Health Interventions for the Control of COVID-19 in the Republic of Cyprus between March and May 2020

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly affected the well-being of individuals worldwide. We herein describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in the Republic of Cyprus during the first epidemic wave (9 March-3 May 2020). We analyzed surveillance data from laboratory-confirmed cases, including targeted testing and population screening. Statistical analyses included logistic regression. During the surveillance period, 64,136 tests (7322.3 per 100,000) were performed, 873 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed, and 20 deaths were reported (2.3%). Health-care workers (HCWs) represented 21.4% of cases. Overall, 19.1% of cases received hospital care and 3.7% required admission to Intensive Care Units. Male sex (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 3.04; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.97-4.69), increasing age (aOR: 1.56; 95%CI: 1.36-1.79), symptoms at diagnosis (aOR: 6.05; 95%CI: 3.18-11.50), and underlying health conditions (aOR: 2.08; 95%CI: 1.31-3.31) were associated with hospitalization. For recovered cases, the median time from first to last second negative test was 21 days. Overall, 119 primary cases reported 616 close contacts, yielding a pooled secondary attack rate of 12% (95%CI: 9.6-14.8%). Three population-based screening projects, and two projects targeting employees and HCWs, involving 25,496 people, revealed 60 positive individuals (0.2%). Early implementation of interventions with targeted and expanded testing facilitated prompt outbreak control on the island.

Risk Perception and Media in Shaping Protective Behaviors: Insights From the Early Phase of COVID-19 Italian Outbreak

In the absence of target treatments or vaccination, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can be impeded by effectively implementing containment measures and behaviors. This relies on individuals’ adoption of protective behaviors, their perceived risk, and the use and trust of information sources. During a health emergency, receiving timely and accurate information enables individuals to take appropriate actions to protect themselves, shaping their risk perception. Italy was the first western country plagued by COVID-19 and one of the most affected in the early phase. During this period, we surveyed 2,223 Italians before the national lockdown. A quarter of the sample perceived COVID-19 less threatening than flu and would not vaccinate, if a vaccine was available. Besides, most people perceived containment measures, based on social distancing or wearing masks, not useful. This perceived utility was related to COVID-19 threat perception and efficacy beliefs. All these measures were associated with the use of media and their truthfulness: participants declared to mainly use the Internet, while health organizations’ websites were the most trusted. Although social networks were frequently used, they were rated lower for trustfulness. Our data differ from those obtained in other community samples, suggesting the relevance to explore changes across different countries and during the different phases of the pandemic. Understanding these phenomena, and how people access the media, may contribute to improve the efficacy of containment measures, tailoring specific policies and health communications.

Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Cancer Patient Care and Treatment: Data from an Outpatient Oncology Clinic in Lombardy (Italy)

Lombardy was the first area in Italy to have an outbreak of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) at the beginning of 2020. In this context, cancer has been reported as a major risk factor for adverse outcomes and death, so oncology societies have quickly released guidelines on cancer care during the pandemic. The aim of this study was to investigate the management of cancer patients and oncological treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic and to describe the containment measures performed in our outpatient clinic at Pavia (Lombardy). A comparison with the same period of the four previous years (2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016) was also performed. Using our electronic databases, we evaluated the number and characteristics of patients accessing the hospital for anticancer drug infusion from 24 February, 2020 to 30 April, 2020 and the number of radiological exams performed. Although a significant reduction in access for therapy was seen when compared with 2019 (2590 versus 2974, access rate ratio (ARR) = 0.85, p < 0.001), no significant differences in access numbers and ARR was evident between 2020 and 2018, 2017, or 2016 (2590 versus 2626 (ARR = 0.07), 2660 (ARR = 0.99), and 2694 (ARR = 0.96), respectively, p > 0.05). In 2020, 63 patients delayed treatment: 38% for "pandemic fear", 18% for travel restrictions, 13% for quarantine, 18% for flu syndrome other than COVID-19, and 13% for worsening of clinical conditions and death. Only 7/469 patients developed COVID-19. A significant reduction in radiological exams was found in 2020 versus all the other years considered (211 versus 360, 355, 385, 390 for the years 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016, respectively, p < 0.001). The low incidence of COVID-19 among our cancer patients, along with the hospital policy to control infection, enabled safe cancer treatment and a continuum of care in most patients, while a small fraction of patients experienced a therapeutic delay due to patient-related reasons.

A model of COVID-19 transmission to understand the effectiveness of the containment measures: application to data from France

The main objective of this paper is to address the following question: are the containment measures imposed by most of the world governments effective and sufficient to stop the epidemic of COVID-19 beyond the lock-down period? In this paper, we propose a mathematical model which allows us to investigate and analyse this problem. We show by means of the reproductive number, that the containment measures appear to have slowed the growth of the outbreak. Nevertheless, these measures remain only effective as long as a very large fraction of population, p, greater than the critical value remains confined. Using French current data, we give some simulation experiments with five scenarios including: (i) the validation of model with p estimated to 93%, (ii) the study of the effectiveness of containment measures, (iii) the study of the effectiveness of the large-scale testing, (iv) the study of the social distancing and wearing masks measures and (v) the study taking into account the combination of the large-scale test of detection of infected individuals and the social distancing with linear progressive easing of restrictions. The latter scenario was shown to be effective at overcoming the outbreak if the transmission rate decreases to 75% and the number of tests of detection is multiplied by three. We also noticed that if the measures studied in our five scenarios are taken separately then the second wave might occur at least as far as the parameter values remain unchanged.

SARS-CoV-2 emergency in the workplace: are companies ready to protect their workers? A cross-sectional survey

Purpose. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has affected all aspects of everyday life worldwide, including the entire working sector. This study aims to evaluate the response capacity of some Italian companies to the emergency about workers' health and safety. Methods. Data were cross-sectional, collected by a specially drafted 19-item checklist sent to 60 enterprises located in the province of L'Aquila, Abruzzo, Italy. Results. Forty-one companies (68%) responded by filling in the checklist; more than 50% have fewer than 50 employees each and most of the companies belong to the food industry and the financial services. Adherence to the containment measures for the COVID-19 emergency was analysed, especially relating to job organization, social distancing, sanitization and specific training. Large enterprises and the banking sector showed ductile work reorganization according to the containment measures compared to small companies and the food sector. Conclusions. Italian companies have shown a good response to the regulatory restrictions resulting from the SARS-CoV-2 emergency. This is a worthy premise for the imminent management of Phase 2, with the progressive reopening of Italian companies.

Effectiveness of Containment Measures to Control the Spread of COVID-19 in North Africa

Objectives:

Since the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, identified in December 2019, in Wuhan in China, the number of cases rapidly increased into a pandemic. Governments worldwide have adopted different strategies and measures to interrupt the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The main objective was to report and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures in North Africa countries.

Methods:

In these countries, the effective reproductive number R(t), the naïve case fatality rate, and the adjusted case fatality rate were estimated and compared on different dates.

Results:

The obtained results show that the early strict application of containment measures and confinement could help contain the spread of the epidemic and maintain the number of deaths low.

Conclusions:

These measures might be useful for other countries that are experiencing the start of local COVID-19 outbreaks. They could also serve to halt the spread of new epidemics or pandemics.

[Accommodation facility for dependent elderly people, ensuring relational proximity after health emergencies]

The health emergency linked to Covid-19 has been stressful for staff working in nursing home, and doubly painful for residents faced with the risk of infection and the reality of family separation. We explore in this article some psychological consequences resulting from their experience in the waning health crisis, hoping that the experience gained will allow greater efficiency in the event of a resumption of the pandemic.

When a virus (Covid-19) attacks human rights: The situation of asylum seekers in the medico-legal setting

The Covid-19 pandemic is a global health emergency that requires immediate, effective action by governments to protect the health and basic human rights of everyone's life. Refugees and migrants are potentially at increased risk because they typically live in overcrowded conditions often without access to basic sanitation. Since the beginning of the official lockdown for Covid-19, the medico-legal assessment of physical violence related to obtaining status or other forms of human protection has been frozen.

Results of Multilevel Containment Measures to Better Protect Lung Cancer Patients From COVID-19: The IEO Model

A novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), named SARS-CoV-2, was identified at the end of 2019. The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has progressively expanded from China, involving several countries throughout the world, leading to the classification of the disease as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). According to published reports, COVID-19 severity and mortality are higher in elderly patients and those with active comorbidities. In particular, lung cancer patients were reported to be at high risk of pulmonary complications related to SARS-CoV2 infection. Therefore, the management of cancer care during the COVID-19 pandemic is a crucial issue, to which national and international oncology organizations have replied with recommendations concerning patients receiving anticancer treatments, delaying follow-up visits and limiting caregiver admission to the hospitals. In this historical moment, medical oncologists are required to consider the possibility to delay active treatment administration based on a case-by-case risk/benefit evaluation. Potential risks associated with COVID-19 infection should be considered, considering tumor histology and natural course, disease setting, clinical conditions, and disease burden, together with the expected benefit, toxicities (e.g., myelosuppression or interstitial lung disease), and response obtained from the planned or ongoing treatment. In this study, we report the results of proactive measures including social media, telemedicine, and telephone triage for screening patients with lung cancer during the COVID-19 outbreak in the European Institute of Oncology (Milan, Italy). Proactive management and containment measures, applied in a structured and daily way, has significantly aided the identification of advance patients with suspected symptoms related to COVID-19, limiting their admission to our cancer center; we have thus been more able to protect other patients from possible contamination and at the same time guarantee to the suspected patients the immediate treatment and evaluation in referral hospitals for COVID-19.

Comparing Attitudes to Containment Measures of Patients, Health Care Professionals and Next of Kin

Background: In clinical psychiatric practice, health care professionals (HCP) must decide in exceptional circumstances after the weighing of interests, which, if any, containment measures including coercion are to be used. Here, the risk for patients, staff, and third parties, in addition to therapeutic considerations, factor into the decision. Patients' preference and the inclusion of relatives in these decisions are important; therefore, an understanding of how patients and next of kin (NOK) experience different coercive measures is crucial for clinical decision making. The aim of this study is to compare how patients, HCP, and NOK assess commonly used coercive measures. Methods: A sample of 435 patients, 372 HCP, and 230 NOK completed the Attitudes to Containment Measures Questionnaire (ACMQ). This standardized self-rating questionnaire assessed the degree of acceptance or rejection of 11 coercive measures. Results: In general, HCPs rated the coercive measures as more acceptable than did NOK and patients. The largest discrepancy in the ratings was found in regard to the application of coercive intramuscular injection of medication (effect size: 1.0 HCP vs. patients). However, the ratings by NOK were significantly closer to the patients' ratings compared to patients and HCP. The only exception was the acceptance of treatment in a closed acute psychiatric ward, which was deemed significantly more acceptable by NOK than by patients. Also, patients who had experienced coercive measures themselves more strongly refused other measures. Conclusion: Patients most firmly rejected intramuscular injections, and the authors agree that these should only be used with reservation considering a high threshold. This knowledge about the discrepancy of the ratings should therefore be incorporated into professional training of HCP.

Antibiotic Resistance in the Food Chain: A Developing Country-Perspective

Antibiotics are now "endangered species" facing extinction due to the worldwide emergence of antibiotic resistance (ABR). Food animals are considered as key reservoirs of antibiotic-resistant bacteria with the use of antibiotics in the food production industry having contributed to the actual global challenge of ABR. There are no geographic boundaries to impede the worldwide spread of ABR. If preventive and containment measures are not applied locally, nationally and regionally, the limited interventions in one country, continent and for instance, in the developing world, could compromise the efficacy and endanger ABR containment policies implemented in other parts of the world, the best-managed high-resource countries included. Multifaceted, comprehensive, and integrated measures complying with the One Health approach are imperative to ensure food safety and security, effectively combat infectious diseases, curb the emergence and spread of ABR, and preserve the efficacy of antibiotics for future generations. Countries should follow the World Health Organization, World Organization for Animal Health, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recommendations to implement national action plans encompassing human, (food) animal, and environmental sectors to improve policies, interventions and activities that address the prevention and containment of ABR from farm-to-fork. This review covers (i) the origin of antibiotic resistance, (ii) pathways by which bacteria spread to humans from farm-to-fork, (iii) differences in levels of antibiotic resistance between developed and developing countries, and (iv) prevention and containment measures of antibiotic resistance in the food chain.