Corrigendum: Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.974020.].

Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios

Introduction

Climate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out by local winegrowers.

Method

Ecological Niche Models were built, using the ensemble modelling approach, to estimate the bioclimatic suitability of four main wine-producing European countries, namely France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, in the recent past (1989-2005), for the cultivation of twelve Portuguese grape varieties. The models were then used to project the bioclimatic suitability to two future periods (2021- 2050 and 2051-2080) to better understand the potential shifts related to climate change (modeled after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The models were obtained with the modeling platform BIOMOD2, using four bioclimatic indices, namely the "Huglin Index", the "Cool Night index", the "Growing Season Precipitation index", and the "Temperature Range during Ripening index" as predictor variables, as well as the current locations of the chosen grape varieties in Portugal.

Results

All models performed with high statistical accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and were able to discriminate several suitable bioclimatic areas for the different grape varieties, in and around where they are currently located but also in other parts of the study area. The distribution of the bioclimatic suitability changed, however, when looking at future projections. For both climatic scenarios, projected bioclimatic suitability suffered a considerable shift to the north of Spain and France. In some cases, bioclimatic suitability also moved towards areas of higher elevation. Portugal and Italy barely retained any of the initially projected varietal areas. These shifts were mainly due to the overall rise in thermal accumulation and lower accumulated precipitation in the southern regions projected for the future.

Conclusion

Ensemble models of Ecological Niche Models were shown to be valid tools for winegrowers who want to adapt to a changing climate. The long-term sustainability of viniculture in southern Europe will most likely have to go through a process of mitigation of the effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Predicted climate-induced reductions in scavenging in eastern North America

Scavenging is an important function within ecosystems where scavengers remove organic matter, reduce disease, stabilize food webs, and generally make ecosystems more resilient to environmental changes. Global change (i.e., changing climate and increasing human impact) is currently influencing scavenger communities. Thus, understanding what promotes species richness in scavenger communities can help prioritize management actions. Using a long-term dataset from camera traps deployed with animal carcasses as bait along a 1881 km latitudinal gradient in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern USA, we investigated the relative impact of climate and humans on the species richness and diversity of vertebrate scavengers. Our most supported models for both mammalian and avian scavengers included climatic, but not human, variables. The richness of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest during relatively warm (5-10°C) and dry (100-150 mm precipitation) winters, when food was likely limited and both reliance on and detection of carrion was high. The diversity of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest under drier conditions. We then used these results to project the future species richness of scavengers that would be detected within our sampling area and under the climate scenario of 2070 (emissions level RCP8.5). Our predictions suggest up to 80% and 67% reductions, respectively, in the richness of avian and mammalian scavengers that would be detected at baited sites. Climate-induced shifts in behavior (i.e., reduction in scavenging, even if present) at this scale could have cascading implications for ecosystem function, resilience, and human health. Further, our study highlights the importance of conducting studies of scavenger community dynamics within ecosystems across wide spatial gradients within temperate environments. More broadly, these findings build upon our understanding of the impacts of climate-induced adjustments in behavior that can likely have negative impacts on systems at a large scale.

Climate change and intensive land use reduce soil animal biomass via dissimilar pathways

Global change drivers, such as climate change and land use, may profoundly influence body size, density, and biomass of soil organisms. However, it is still unclear how these concurrent drivers interact in affecting ecological communities. Here, we present the results of an experimental field study assessing the interactive effects of climate change and land-use intensification on body size, density, and biomass of soil microarthropods. We found that the projected climate change and intensive land use decreased their total biomass. Strikingly, this reduction was realized via two dissimilar pathways: climate change reduced mean body size and intensive land use decreased density. These findings highlight that two of the most pervasive global change drivers operate via different pathways when decreasing soil animal biomass. These shifts in soil communities may threaten essential ecosystem functions like organic matter turnover and nutrient cycling in future ecosystems.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 1: FLOW, WATER TEMPERATURE, SALTWATER INTRUSION

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on U.S. water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al. (2019), we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 2: NUTRIENTS, ALGAL BLOOMS, SEDIMENT, PATHOGENS

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

Mechanism of SOA formation determines magnitude of radiative effects

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms via a variety of processes and plays a key role in climate change and air quality. Recent measurements indicate that most SOA exists as an internal mixture with other aerosols. This study examines the radiative effect of using a mixing state for SOA that depends on the process of formation, based on an explicit mechanism for the chemical production of SOA. The radiative forcing of SOA in the future is estimated using this approach. A surprising result is that the contribution of SOA to radiative forcing increases substantially (becomes more negative) in the future even though the increase of its burden is slight.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) nearly always exists as an internal mixture, and the distribution of this mixture depends on the formation mechanism of SOA. A model is developed to examine the influence of using an internal mixing state based on the mechanism of formation and to estimate the radiative forcing of SOA in the future. For the present day, 66% of SOA is internally mixed with sulfate, while 34% is internally mixed with primary soot. Compared with using an external mixture, the direct effect of SOA is decreased due to the decrease in total aerosol surface area and the increase of absorption efficiency. Aerosol number concentrations are sharply reduced, and this is responsible for a large decrease in the cloud albedo effect. Internal mixing decreases the radiative effect of SOA by a factor of >4 compared with treating SOA as an external mixture. The future SOA burden increases by 24% due to CO₂ increases and climate change, leading to a total (direct plus cloud albedo) radiative forcing of −0.05 W m⁻². When the combined effects of changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and land use are included, the SOA forcing is −0.07 W m⁻², even though the SOA burden only increases by 6.8%. This is caused by the substantial increase of SOA associated with sulfate in the Aitken mode. The Aitken mode increase contributes to the enhancement of first indirect radiative forcing, which dominates the total radiative forcing.

Future Climate CO2 Levels Mitigate Stress Impact on Plants: Increased Defense or Decreased Challenge?

Elevated atmospheric CO2 can stimulate plant growth by providing additional C (fertilization effect), and is observed to mitigate abiotic stress impact. Although, the mechanisms underlying the stress mitigating effect are not yet clear, increased antioxidant defenses, have been held primarily responsible (antioxidant hypothesis). A systematic literature analysis, including "all" papers [Web of Science (WoS)-cited], addressing elevated CO2 effects on abiotic stress responses and antioxidants (105 papers), confirms the frequent occurrence of the stress mitigation effect. However, it also demonstrates that, in stress conditions, elevated CO2 is reported to increase antioxidants, only in about 22% of the observations (e.g., for polyphenols, peroxidases, superoxide dismutase, monodehydroascorbate reductase). In most observations, under stress and elevated CO2 the levels of key antioxidants and antioxidant enzymes are reported to remain unchanged (50%, e.g., ascorbate peroxidase, catalase, ascorbate), or even decreased (28%, e.g., glutathione peroxidase). Moreover, increases in antioxidants are not specific for a species group, growth facility, or stress type. It seems therefore unlikely that increased antioxidant defense is the major mechanism underlying CO2-mediated stress impact mitigation. Alternative processes, probably decreasing the oxidative challenge by reducing ROS production (e.g., photorespiration), are therefore likely to play important roles in elevated CO2 (relaxation hypothesis). Such parameters are however rarely investigated in connection with abiotic stress relief. Understanding the effect of elevated CO2 on plant growth and stress responses is imperative to understand the impact of climate changes on plant productivity.

Lasting effects of climate disturbance on perennial grassland above-ground biomass production under two cutting frequencies

Climate extremes can ultimately reshape grassland services such as forage production and change plant functional type composition. This 3-year field research studied resistance to dehydration and recovery after rehydration of plant community and plant functional types in an upland perennial grassland subjected to climate and cutting frequency (Cut+, Cut-) disturbances by measuring green tissue percentage and above-ground biomass production (ANPP). In year 1, a climate disturbance gradient was applied by co-manipulating temperature and precipitation. Four treatments were considered: control and warming-drought climatic treatment, with or without extreme summer event. In year 2, control and warming-drought treatments were maintained without extreme. In year 3, all treatments received ambient climatic conditions. We found that the grassland community was very sensitive to dehydration during the summer extreme: aerial senescence reached 80% when cumulated climatic water balance fell to -156 mm and biomass declined by 78% at the end of summer. In autumn, canopy greenness and biomass totally recovered in control but not in the warming-drought treatment. However ANPP decreased under both climatic treatments, but the effect was stronger on Cut+ (-24%) than Cut- (-15%). This decline was not compensated by the presence of three functional types because they were negatively affected by the climatic treatments, suggesting an absence of buffering effect on grassland production. In the following 2 years, lasting effects of climate disturbance on ANPP were observable. The unexpected stressful conditions of year 3 induced a decline in grassland production in the Cut+ control treatment. The fact that this treatment cumulated higher (45%) N export over the 3 years suggests that N plays a key role in ANPP stability. As ANPP in this mesic perennial grassland did not show engineering resilience, long-term experimental manipulation is needed. Infrequent mowing appears more appropriate for sustaining grassland ANPP under future climate extremes.

Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region

Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970-1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970-1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.