Landscape heterogeneity increases the stability of wild ungulate populations facing climatic variability in Mediterranean ecosystems

Mediterranean environments are characterized by strong intra- and inter-annual fluctuations in plant primary production, which are likely to regulate the carrying capacity and density-dependent responses of ungulate populations. These effects may, however, vary across spatial and temporal scales. Habitat heterogeneity, particularly when associated to differentiated phenological responses, may allow wild ungulates to mitigate temporal fluctuations in plant production by using different resources along the year. In this work, we use a 15-years dataset (including remote-sensing data on vegetation distribution, phenology and production, as well as ungulate population counts) to assess how temporal variability in plant primary production and livestock abundance influence the population dynamics of two wild ungulates: native red deer, Cervus elaphus, and introduced fallow deer, Dama dama. Results show that temporal alternation in the phenological cycles of the four different vegetation types increased plant production, thus food availability for ungulates, within each year. Furthermore, complementarity in the responses of different vegetation types to variations in the amount and timing of rainfall increased the predictability of food availability across different years. This complementarity effect was further increased by the contrasting responses of ungulate populations to variation in the production of different vegetation types. Furthermore, domestic ungulates had positive effects on wild ungulate density at low to intermediate abundances, but high livestock densities decreased ungulate density and constrained the stability of the plant-ungulate system in response to the impact of climatic variation, particularly under climate change. Our findings deepen the knowledge on vegetation-ungulate interactions in Mediterranean areas, potentially contributing to develop better management strategies of ungulate populations and adapt them to ongoing climate change.

Metapopulation capacity determines food chain length in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the persistence of populations in fragmented landscapes is critical for predicting the consequences of habitat destruction, yet analytical tools are largely lacking. Metapopulation capacity provides one such tool, because it summarizes the influences of habitat area and distribution on population persistence in a single metric. However, surprisingly few efforts have extended this theory to multispecies communities. Our analyses demonstrate the power of metapopulation capacity theory in predicting the persistence of prey–predator pairs and food chains in heterogeneous, fragmented landscapes. Such analytic insights serve as a benchmark to predict the consequences of habitat changes. Our findings thus have broad implications for both ecological research and conservation practices.

Metapopulation capacity provides an analytic tool to quantify the impact of landscape configuration on metapopulation persistence, which has proven powerful in biological conservation. Yet surprisingly few efforts have been made to apply this approach to multispecies systems. Here, we extend metapopulation capacity theory to predict the persistence of trophically interacting species. Our results demonstrate that metapopulation capacity could be used to predict the persistence of trophic systems such as prey–predator pairs and food chains in fragmented landscapes. In particular, we derive explicit predictions for food chain length as a function of metapopulation capacity, top-down control, and population dynamical parameters. Under certain assumptions, we show that the fraction of empty patches for the basal species provides a useful indicator to predict the length of food chains that a fragmented landscape can support and confirm this prediction for a host–parasitoid interaction. We further show that the impact of habitat changes on biodiversity can be predicted from changes in metapopulation capacity or approximately by changes in the fraction of empty patches. Our study provides an important step toward a spatially explicit theory of trophic metacommunities and a useful tool for predicting their responses to habitat changes.

Phenotype-environment mismatch in metapopulations-Implications for the maintenance of maladaptation at the regional scale

Maladaptation is widespread in natural populations. However, maladaptation has most often been associated with absolute population decline in local habitats rather than on a spectrum of relative fitness variation that can assist natural populations in their persistence at larger regional scales. We report results from a field experiment that tested for relative maladaptation between-pond habitats with spatial heterogeneity and (a)symmetric selection in pH. In the experiment, we quantified relative maladaptation in a copepod metapopulation as a mismatch between the mean population phenotype and the optimal trait value that would maximize mean population fitness under either stable or fluctuating pH environmental conditions. To complement the field experiment, we constructed a metapopulation model that addressed both relative (distance from the optimum) and absolute (negative population growth) maladaptation, with the aim of forecasting maladaptation to pH at the regional scale in relation to spatial structure (environmental heterogeneity and connectivity) and temporal environmental fluctuations. The results from our experiment indicated that maladaptation to pH at the regional scale depended on the asymmetry of the fitness surface at the local level. The results from our metapopulation model revealed how dispersal and (a)symmetric selection can operate on the fitness surface to maintain maladaptive phenotype-environment mismatch at local and regional scales in a metapopulation. Environmental stochasticity resulted in the maintenance of maladaptation that was robust to dispersal, but also revealed an interaction between the asymmetry in selection and environmental correlation. Our findings emphasize the importance of maladaptation for planning conservation strategies that can support adaptive potential in fragmented and changing landscapes.

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process-based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co-occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co-occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade-off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.

Collective foraging in heterogeneous landscapes

Animals foraging alone are hypothesized to optimize the encounter rates with resources through Lévy walks. However, the issue of how the interactions between multiple foragers influence their search efficiency is still not completely understood. To address this, we consider a model to study the optimal strategy for a group of foragers searching for targets distributed heterogeneously. In our model, foragers move on a square lattice containing immobile but regenerative targets. At any instant, a forager is able to detect only those targets that happen to be in the same site. However, we allow the foragers to have information about the state of other foragers. A forager who has not detected any target walks towards the nearest location, where another forager has detected a target, with a probability exp(-αd), where d is the distance between the foragers and α is a parameter characterizing the propensity of the foragers to aggregate. The model reveals that neither overcrowding (α → 0) nor independent searching (α → ∞) is beneficial for the foragers. For a patchy distribution of targets, the efficiency is maximum for intermediate values of α. In addition, in the limit α → 0, the length of the walks can become scale-free.

Decay of interspecific avian flock networks along a disturbance gradient in Amazonia

Our understanding of how anthropogenic habitat change shapes species interactions is in its infancy. This is in large part because analytical approaches such as network theory have only recently been applied to characterize complex community dynamics. Network models are a powerful tool for quantifying how ecological interactions are affected by habitat modification because they provide metrics that quantify community structure and function. Here, we examine how large-scale habitat alteration has affected ecological interactions among mixed-species flocking birds in Amazonian rainforest. These flocks provide a model system for investigating how habitat heterogeneity influences non-trophic interactions and the subsequent social structure of forest-dependent mixed-species bird flocks. We analyse 21 flock interaction networks throughout a mosaic of primary forest, fragments of varying sizes and secondary forest (SF) at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonian Brazil. Habitat type had a strong effect on network structure at the levels of both species and flock. Frequency of associations among species, as summarized by weighted degree, declined with increasing levels of forest fragmentation and SF. At the flock level, clustering coefficients and overall attendance positively correlated with mean vegetation height, indicating a strong effect of habitat structure on flock cohesion and stability. Prior research has shown that trophic interactions are often resilient to large-scale changes in habitat structure because species are ecologically redundant. By contrast, our results suggest that behavioural interactions and the structure of non-trophic networks are highly sensitive to environmental change. Thus, a more nuanced, system-by-system approach may be needed when thinking about the resiliency of ecological networks.

Finding the Missing Link between Landscape Structure and Population Dynamics: A Spatially Explicit Perspective

We construct and explore a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the impact of changes in landscape structure on population dynamics. The essential parts of the framework are a landscape generator with independent control over landscape composition and physiognomy, an individual-based spatially explicit population model that simulates population dynamics within heterogeneous landscapes, and scale-dependent landscape indices that depict the essential aspects of landscape that interact with dispersal and demographic processes. Landscape maps are represented by a grid of [Formula: see text] cells and consist of good-quality, poor-quality, or uninhabitable matrix habitat cells. The population model was shaped in accordance to the biology of European brown bears (Ursus arctos), and demographic parameters were adjusted to yield a source-sink configuration. Results obtained with the spatially explicit model do not confirm results of earlier nonspatial source-sink models where addition of sink habitat resulted in a decrease of total population size because of dilution of high-quality habitat. Our landscape indices, which describe scale-dependent correlation between and within habitat types, were able to explain variations in variables of population dynamics (mean number of females with sink home ranges, mean number of females with source home ranges, and mean dispersal distance) caused by different landscape structure. When landscape structure changed, changes in these variables generally followed the corresponding change of an appropriate landscape index in a linear way. Our general approach incorporates source-sink dynamics as well as metapopulation dynamics, and the population model can easily be modified for other species groups.