A nomogram to predict the risk of cognitive impairment in patients with depressive disorder

This study was to describe the cognitive function status in patients with depressive disorder and to construct a nomogram model to predict the risk factors of cognitive impairment in these patients. From October 2019 to February 2021, a total of 141 patients with depressive disorder completed the survey in two hospitals. The Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) was used with a cutoff score of 26 to differentiate cognitive impairment. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram was then constructed based on the results of the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The patients had an average MoCA score of 23.99 ± 3.02. The multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR: 1.096, 95% CI: 1.042-1.153, p < 0.001), education (OR: 0.065, 95% CI: 0.016-0.263, p < 0.001), depression severity (OR: 1.878, 95% CI: 1.021-3.456, p = 0.043), and sleep quality (OR: 2.454, 95% CI: 1.400-4.301, p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for cognitive impairment in patients with depressive disorder. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.868 (95% CI: 0.807-0.929), indicating good discriminability of the model. The calibration curve of the model and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.571) demonstrated a well-fitted model with high calibration. Age, education, depression severity, and sleep quality were found to be significant predictors of cognitive function. A nomogram model was developed to predict cognitive impairment in patients with depressive disorder, providing a solid foundation for clinical interventions.

Mendelian randomization study supports relative carbohydrate intake as an independent risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Observational studies suggested a potential correlation between dietary intake and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but conflicting findings exist and causality remains unclear. Here, we performed a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal impact of relative intake of (i) carbohydrate, (ii) fat, and (iii) protein on ALS risk.

METHODS

The genome-wide association summary statistics of three dietary macronutrient intake traits and ALS were obtained. Initially, forward and reverse univariable MR (UVMR) analysis were conducted using the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method as the primary approach, supplemented by MR-Egger, weighted median, and maximum likelihood. Subsequently, multivariable MR (MVMR) analysis was performed to assess the independent causal effects of each dietary. Additionally, diverse sensitivity tests were conducted to evaluate the reliability of the MR analyses.

RESULTS

The forward UVMR analysis conducted by IVW indicated that relative carbohydrate intake significantly increased ALS risk. Furthermore, results from three other MR methods paralleled those from IVW. However, the other two dietary intake traits did not have a causative impact on ALS risk. The reverse UVMR analysis indicated that ALS did not causatively influence the three dietary intake traits. The MVMR analysis showed that after adjusting for the effects of the other two dietary intake traits, relative carbohydrate intake independently and significantly increased ALS risk. Sensitivity tests indicated no significant heterogeneity or horizontal pleiotropy.

DISCUSSION

MR analysis supported relative carbohydrate independently increasing ALS risk. Nevertheless, further validation of this finding in future large cohorts is required.

Abbreviations: ALS: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; CI: confidence interval; GWAS: genome-wide association study; IV: instrumental variable; IVW: iverse variance weighted; MR: Mendelian randomization; MVMR: multivariable Mendelian randomization; OR: odds ratio; RCT: randomized controlled trial; SNPs: single-nucleotide polymorphisms; UVMR: univariable Mendelian randomization.

Diagnostic value of serum NLRP3, metalloproteinase-9 and interferon-γ for postoperative hydrocephalus and intracranial infection in patients with severe craniocerebral trauma

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally. We unveiled the diagnostic value of serum NLRP3, metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and interferon-γ (IFN-γ) levels in post-craniotomy intracranial infections and hydrocephalus in patients with severe craniocerebral trauma to investigate the high risk factors for these in patients with TBI, and the serological factors predicting prognosis, which had a certain clinical predictive value. Study subjects underwent bone flap resection surgery and were categorized into the intracranial infection/hydrocephalus/control (without postoperative hydrocephalus or intracranial infection) groups, with their clinical data documented. Serum levels of NLRP3, MMP-9 and IFN-γ were determined using ELISA kits, with their diagnostic efficacy on intracranial infections and hydrocephalus evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The independent risk factors affecting postoperative intracranial infections and hydrocephalus were analysed by logistic multifactorial regression. The remission after postoperative symptomatic treatment was counted. The intracranial infection/control groups had significant differences in Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores, opened injury, surgical time and cerebrospinal fluid leakage, whereas the hydrocephalus and control groups had marked differences in GCS scores, cerebrospinal fluid leakage and subdural effusion. Serum NLRP3, MMP-9 and IFN-γ levels were elevated in patients with post-craniotomy intracranial infections/hydrocephalus. The area under the curve values of independent serum NLRP3, MMP-9, IFN-γ and their combination for diagnosing postoperative intracranial infection were 0.822, 0.722, 0.734 and 0.925, respectively, and for diagnosing hydrocephalus were 0.865, 0.828, 0.782 and 0.957, respectively. Serum NLRP3, MMP-9 and IFN-γ levels and serum NLRP3 and MMP-9 levels were independent risk factors influencing postoperative intracranial infection and postoperative hydrocephalus, respectively. Patients with hydrocephalus had a high remission rate after postoperative symptomatic treatment. Serum NLRP3, MMP-9 and IFN-γ levels had high diagnostic efficacy in patients with postoperative intracranial infection and hydrocephalus, among which serum NLRP3 level played a major role.

Development and Internal Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Carotid Atherosclerosis in the Hyperuricemia Population

Purpose

The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in a population with hyperuricemia (HUA) and develop a CAS risk prediction model.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study included 3579 HUA individuals who underwent health examinations, including carotid ultrasonography, at the Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital in Ningbo, China, in 2020. All participants were randomly assigned to the training and internal validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors associated with CAS. The characteristic variables were screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator combined with 10-fold cross-validation, and the resulting model was visualized by a nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the risk model were validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Sex, age, mean red blood cell volume, and fasting blood glucose were identified as independent risk factors for CAS in the HUA population. Age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, serum creatinine, fasting blood glucose, total triiodothyronine, and direct bilirubin, were screened to construct a CAS risk prediction model. In the training and internal validation sets, the risk prediction model showed an excellent discriminative ability with the area under the curve of 0.891 and 0.901, respectively, and a high level of fit. Decision curve analysis results demonstrated that the risk prediction model could be beneficial when the threshold probabilities were 1-87% and 1-100% in the training and internal validation sets, respectively.

Conclusion

We developed and internally validated a risk prediction model for CAS in a population with HUA, thereby contributing to the CAS early identification.

Albumin to globulin ratio (AGR) in systemic lupus erythematosus: correlation with disease activity

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and its relationship with disease activity.

METHODS

This retrospective study consecutively selected patients with SLE and healthy controls. Patients were divided into three groups according to the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K): group 1 (mild disease activity, SLEDAI-2K ≤ 6), group 2 (moderate disease activity, SLEDAI-2K 7-12) and group 3 (severe disease activity, SLEDAI-2K > 12). Predictors of SLE disease activity were analysed by ordinal logistical regression.

RESULTS

A total of 101 Chinese patients with SLE and 75 healthy Chinese controls were included. Patients with SLE had lower AGR values than healthy individuals, and group 3 patients with SLE displayed lower AGR values than those in group 1, but similar values to group 2. AGR was inversely correlated with SLEDAI-2K (r = -0.543). Ordinal logistic regression analysis showed that lower AGR (β = -1.319) and lower complement C4 (β = -1.073) were independent risk factors for SLE disease activity.

CONCLUSIONS

AGR was decreased in patients with SLE and may be utilized as a useful inflammatory biomarker for monitoring SLE disease activity.

Risk Factors for 30-Days Mortality After Proximal Femoral Fracture Surgery, a Cohort Study

Purpose

The primary objective of this study was to identify new risk factors and to confirm previously reported risk factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Patients and methods

A prospective hip fracture database was used to obtain data. In total, 3523 patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2011 and 2021 were included. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to screen and identify candidate risk factors. Twenty-seven baseline factors and 16 peri-operative factors were included in the univariable analysis and 28 of those factors were included in multivariable analysis.

Results

8.6% of the patients who underwent hip fracture surgery died within 30 days after surgery. Prognostic factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery were as follows: age 90-100 years (OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.07-19.98, p = 0.041) and above 100 years (OR = 11.3, 95% CI: 1.28-100.26, p = 0.029), male gender (OR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.97-3.33, p < 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) 3 and ASA 4 (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-3.14, p < 0.001), medical history of dementia (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.25-2.36, p = 0.001), decreased albumin level (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.97, p < 0.001), decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001), residential status of nursing home (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-2.87, p < 0.001), higher Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (KATZ-ADL) score (OR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.01-1.16, p=0.018) and postoperative pneumonia (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.72-3.38, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

A high mortality rate in patients after acute hip fracture surgery is known. Factors that are associated with an increased mortality are age above 90 years, male gender, ASA 3 and ASA 4, medical history of dementia, decreased albumin, decreased GFR, residential status of nursing home, higher KATZ-ADL score and postoperative pneumonia.

Predicting the risk of subclinical atherosclerosis based on interpretable machine models in a Chinese T2DM population

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a global public health concern. Identifying and preventing subclinical atherosclerosis (SCAS), an early indicator of CVD, is critical for improving cardiovascular outcomes. This study aimed to construct interpretable machine learning models for predicting SCAS risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.

Methods

This study included 3084 T2DM individuals who received health care at Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital, Ningbo, China, from January 2018 to December 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator combined with random forest-recursive feature elimination were used to screen for characteristic variables. Linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, Naive Bayes, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting were employed in constructing risk prediction models for SCAS in T2DM patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was employed to assess the predictive capacity of the model through 10-fold cross-validation. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations were utilized to interpret the best-performing model.

Results

The percentage of SCAS was 38.46% (n=1186) in the study population. Fourteen variables, including age, white blood cell count, and basophil count, were identified as independent risk factors for SCAS. Nine predictors, including age, albumin, and total protein, were screened for the construction of risk prediction models. After validation, the random forest model exhibited the best clinical predictive value in the training set with an AUC of 0.729 (95% CI: 0.709-0.749), and it also demonstrated good predictive value in the internal validation set [AUC: 0.715 (95% CI: 0.688-0.742)]. The model interpretation revealed that age, albumin, total protein, total cholesterol, and serum creatinine were the top five variables contributing to the prediction model.

Conclusion

The construction of SCAS risk models based on the Chinese T2DM population contributes to its early prevention and intervention, which would reduce the incidence of adverse cardiovascular prognostic events.

Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury in patients after cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVE

Identifying patients at high risk for cardiac arrest-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) helps in early preventive interventions. This study aimed to establish and validate a high-risk nomogram for CA-AKI.

METHODS

In this retrospective dataset, 339 patients after cardiac arrest (CA) were enrolled and randomized into a training or testing dataset. The Student's t-test, non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test, or χ2 test was used to compare differences between the two groups. Optimal predictors of CA-AKI were determined using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). A nomogram was developed to predict the early onset of CA-AKI. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC).

RESULTS

In total, 150 patients (44.2%) were diagnosed with CA-AKI. Four independent risk predictors were identified and integrated into the nomogram: chronic kidney disease, albumin level, shock, and heart rate. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses showed that the nomogram had a good discrimination performance for CA-AKI in the training dataset 0.774 (95%CI, 0.715-0.833) and testing dataset 0.763 (95%CI, 0.670-0.856). The AUC values for the two groups were calculated and compared using the Hanley-McNeil test. No statistically significant differences were observed between the groups. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted outcome and actual observations. Good clinical usefulness was identified using DCA and CIC.

CONCLUSION

An easy-to-use nomogram for predicting CA-AKI was established and validated, and the prediction efficiency of the clinical model has reasonable clinical practicability.

Predicting the 5-Year Risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Machine Learning Models: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has emerged as a worldwide public health issue. Identifying and targeting populations at a heightened risk of developing NAFLD over a 5-year period can help reduce and delay adverse hepatic prognostic events.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the 5-year incidence of NAFLD in the Chinese population. It also aimed to establish and validate a machine learning model for predicting the 5-year NAFLD risk.

METHODS

The study population was derived from a 5-year prospective cohort study. A total of 6196 individuals without NAFLD who underwent health checkups in 2010 at Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital in Ningbo, China, were enrolled in this study. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-recursive feature elimination, combined with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), was used to screen for characteristic predictors. A total of 6 machine learning models, namely logistic regression, decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, categorical boosting, and XGBoost, were utilized in the construction of a 5-year risk model for NAFLD. Hyperparameter optimization of the predictive model was performed in the training set, and a further evaluation of the model performance was carried out in the internal and external validation sets.

RESULTS

The 5-year incidence of NAFLD was 18.64% (n=1155) in the study population. We screened 11 predictors for risk prediction model construction. After the hyperparameter optimization, CatBoost demonstrated the best prediction performance in the training set, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.810 (95% CI 0.768-0.852). Logistic regression showed the best prediction performance in the internal and external validation sets, with AUROC curves of 0.778 (95% CI 0.759-0.794) and 0.806 (95% CI 0.788-0.821), respectively. The development of web-based calculators has enhanced the clinical feasibility of the risk prediction model.

CONCLUSIONS

Developing and validating machine learning models can aid in predicting which populations are at the highest risk of developing NAFLD over a 5-year period, thereby helping delay and reduce the occurrence of adverse liver prognostic events.

Impact of Treatment Modalities on Discharge Disposition in Blunt Splenic Injuries

BACKGROUND

Management of blunt splenic trauma has evolved over several decades, trending towards nonoperative management and splenic artery embolization. Extensive research has been conducted regarding the management of blunt splenic injuries, but there is little data on the association of treatment modality with discharge disposition.

METHODS

This is an observational retrospective study conducted at a level-one trauma center with blunt splenic trauma patients of age ≥18 years between January 2010 and December 2021. The primary outcome of unfavorable discharge was defined as discharge to an acute care facility, intermediate care facility, long-term care facility, rehabilitation (inpatient) facility, or skilled nursing facility.

RESULTS

Five hundred seventy-nine patients were included in the analysis, with 108 (18.7%) in the unfavorable group and 471 (81.3%) in the favorable group. Most patients were managed nonoperatively (69.3%), followed by splenectomy (25.0%) and embolization (5.7%). Due to the low number of embolizations performed during the study period, treatment modalities were grouped into two broad categories: intervention (embolization and splenectomies) and nonintervention. The treatment modality was found to have no significant impact on unfavorable discharge. Independent risk factors for unfavorable discharge included age >55 years, injury severity score (ISS) >15, hospital-acquired pneumonia, and in-hospital complications of sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an understanding of specific demographic and clinical factors that may predispose blunt splenic injury trauma patients to an unfavorable discharge. Providers may apply these data to identify at-risk patients and subsequently adapt the care they provide in an effort to prevent the development of in-hospital pneumonia and sepsis.

Association between serum albumin levels and survival in elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a single-center retrospective study

Background

In clinical hematology, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is notably heterogeneous and varies in prognosis. Serum albumin (SA) is considered a biomarker of prognostic value in a number of hematologic malignancies. However, current knowledge of the association between SA levels and survival is limited, especially in DLBCL patients aged ≥70 years. Thus, this study sought to assess the prognostic value of SA levels among this age group of patients.

Methods

The data of DLBCL patients aged ≥70 years at the Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital in China from 2010 to 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. The SA levels were measured using standard procedures. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival time, and the Cox proportional hazards model for time-to-event data was used to identify potential risk factors.

Results

The data of 96 participants were included in the study. The univariate analysis showed that B symptoms, Ann Arbor stage III or IV of the disease, high International Prognostic Index (IPI) scores, high NCCN-IPI scores, and low SA levels were prognostic factors for an undesirable overall survival (OS) rate. The multivariate analysis showed that a high SA level (hazard ratio: 0.43; 95% confidence interval: 0.2-0.88; P=0.022) was an independent prognostic factor of superior outcomes.

Conclusions

An SA level ≥4.0 g/dL was identified as an independent biomarker of prognostic value for DLBCL patients aged ≥70 years.

Serum HMGB1 and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor levels aid diagnosis and prognosis prediction of sepsis with acute respiratory distress syndrome

Objective: To study the clinical application of serum HMGB1 and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) expression in sepsis with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Methods: Clinical data of 303 septic patients with/without ARDS were documented. Levels of serum inflammatory markers and HMGB1/suPAR were measured. ARDS patients were subdivided into high and low HMGB1/suPAR expression groups and followed up. Results: Serum HMGB1 and suPAR were upregulated in ARDS patients and positively correlated with inflammatory markers. The combination of HMGB1 with suPAR surpassed HMGB1 or suPAR alone in aiding diagnosis of sepsis with ARDS. CRP, PCT, IL-6, HMGB1 and suPAR were independent risk factors for ARDS. High HMGB1/suPAR expression might be linked to poor prognosis. Conclusion: Serum HMGB1/suPAR levels might aid diagnosis and predict poor prognosis of septic patients with ARDS.

Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model based on albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio for predicting the prognosis of gallbladder carcinoma

Gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) is a rare biliary tract cancer with a high recurrence rate and a poor prognosis. Albumin-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) has been demonstrated to be a prognostic predictor for several cancers, but its predictive value for GBC patients remains unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive role of AAPR in GBC patients and to develop a novel nomogram prediction model for GBC patients. We retrospectively collected data from 80 patients who underwent surgery at the Hospital of 81st Group Army PLA as a training cohort. Data were collected from 70 patients with the same diagnosis who underwent surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University as an external verification cohort. The optimal cut-off value of AAPR was determined using X-tile software. A nomogram for the overall survival (OS) based on multivariate Cox regression analysis was developed and validated using calibration curves, Harrell's concordance index, the receiver operating characteristic curves, and decisive curve analyses. The optimal cut-off value of AAPR was .20. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated that BMI (p = .043), R0 resection (p = .001), TNM stage (p = .005), and AAPR (p = .017) were independent risk factors for GBC patients. In terms of consistency, discrimination, and net benefit, the nomogram incorporating these four independent risk factors performed admirably. AAPR is an independent predictor of GBC patients undergoing surgery, and a novel nomogram prediction model based on AAPR showed superior predictive ability.

Independent risk factors of asthma exacerbations: 3-year follow-up in a single-center prospective cohort study

Background

Because minimizing future risk is the goal of asthma chronic asthma management, it is particularly important to identify risk factors. We conducted this 3-year single-center prospective cohort study to determine the independent risk factors of asthma exacerbations (AEs).

Methods

We performed this prospective, longitudinal, observational study with a 3-year follow-up on 257 patients aged 18-81 years with at least a 1-year history of asthma. Follow-up visits are conducted through regular annual phone calls, and the primary endpoints were AE.

Results

The uncontrolled group was more likely to develop AE than the well-controlled group [odds ratio (OR): 6.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-35.21, P<0.05]. Patients with low Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ) scores were more likely to develop AE than these with high AQLQ scores (OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.35-0.99, P<0.05). AQLQ and Asthma Control Questionnaires (ACQ) were both strong independent risk factors within 3 years of enrollment; the cut-off values (COV) of the AQLQ and the ACQ (uncontrolled) that better evaluated the risk with the AE were ≤5.4 and >1, respectively. The AQLQ scores had a sensitivity of 79.07% and a specificity of 59.09% [area under curve (AUC): 0.70, P<0.0001], and the ACQ (uncontrolled) had a sensitivity of 81.4% and a specificity of 52.29% (AUC 0.68, P<0.0001).

Conclusions

The findings of this study suggest that patients with uncontrolled asthma and a diminished health-related quality of life had an increased risk of exacerbations in the future. Defining these risk factors associated with AE is important as it will identify these at the highest risk to patients and may guide future interventions.

Development and internal validation of a risk model for hyperuricemia in diabetic kidney disease patients

Purpose

This research aimed to identify independent risk factors for hyperuricemia (HUA) in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients and develop an HUA risk model based on a retrospective study in Ningbo, China.

Patients and methods

Six hundred and ten DKD patients attending the two hospitals between January 2019 and December 2020 were enrolled in this research and randomized to the training and validation cohorts based on the corresponding ratio (7:3). Independent risk factors associated with HUA were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The characteristic variables of the HUA risk prediction model were screened out by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) combined with 10-fold cross-validation, and the model was presented by nomogram. The C-index and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate the discriminatory power, degree of fitting, and clinical applicability of the risk model.

Results

Body mass index (BMI), HbA1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and hyperlipidemia were identified as independent risk factors for HUA in the DKD population. The characteristic variables (gender, family history of T2DM, drinking history, BMI, and hyperlipidemia) were screened out by LASSO combined with 10-fold cross-validation and included as predictors in the HUA risk prediction model. In the training cohort, the HUA risk model showed good discriminatory power with a C-index of 0.761 (95% CI: 0.712-0.810) and excellent degree of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P > 0.05), and the results of the DCA showed that the prediction model could be beneficial for patients when the threshold probability was 9-79%. Meanwhile, the risk model was also well validated in the validation cohort, where the C-index was 0.843 (95% CI: 0.780-0.906), the degree of fit was good, and the DCA risk threshold probability was 7-100%.

Conclusion

The development of risk models contributes to the early identification and prevention of HUA in the DKD population, which is vital for preventing and reducing adverse prognostic events in DKD.

Risk Factors for Calcific Aortic Valve Disease in Afghan Population

Objective

Evidence from previous studies suggests that calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is not an unavoidable consequence of aging, and may be linked to explicit risk factors. However, little is known regarding the Afghan population in this context. The current study aimed to identify the clinical features of CAVD and determine independent risk factors for CAVD in the Afghan population.

Patients and Methods

A case-control study was conducted among 1072 Afghan participants (age >18 years) from January 2018 to December 2020. The study participants were divided into two groups based on echocardiographic findings: 536 individuals with CAVD and 536 age- and sex-matched controls. Data were collected using questionnaires from the medical records of all cases and controls. The independent predictors of CAVD were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

The mean age of study participants was 65.3 ± 13.5 years (range, 20–100 years). Of the 536 patients with CAVD, 77 (14.4%) had aortic valve stenosis, 415 (77.4%) had aortic valve calcification, and 44 (8.2%) had bicuspid aortic valve. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that sedentary lifestyle (odds ratio [OR] = 2.517, p = 003), diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR = 1.902, p = 006), high body mass index (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) (OR = 1.776, p = 005), good socioeconomic status (OR = 1.724, p = 021), and hypertension (OR = 1.664, p ˂0.001) were independent risk factors for CAVD in the Afghan population.

Conclusion

It was observed that sedentary lifestyle, diabetes mellitus, high BMI (≥ 30 kg/m²), good socioeconomic status, and hypertension are independent risk factors for the development of CAVD compared to those with a normal aortic valve in the Afghan population.

Clinical Characteristics and Immune Status of Patients with Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a novel infectious disease caused by bunya virus. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics of SFTS patients and their virus-related immune disorders in vivo. Patients with SFTS admitted to Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, and divided into survival group and death group according to the 28-day survival. Clinical characteristics and laboratory examination results of SFTS patients were recorded, and dynamic changes of immune function and inflammatory factors were statistically analyzed. Prolonged activated prothrombin time (APTT) (p = 0.001), high viral load (p = 0.001), and elevated human leukocyte antigen DR (HLA-DR) level (p = 0.002) were independent prognostic risk factors for SFTS patients. Compared to the survival group, the nonsurvival group was more prone to hemorrhagic and neurological symptoms (p < 0.05). Natural kill (NK) cell count, interleukin-10, interferon-α, and tumor necrosis factor-α scores in the nonsurvival group continued to increase after admission, while CD3+ T, CD4+ T, and CD8+ T cell counts continued to decrease. CD3+ T lymphocyte count was negatively correlated with viral load (R = 0.3883, p < 0.001), CD4+ T lymphocyte count was negatively correlated with viral load (R = 0.28933, p < 0.001), CD8+ T lymphocyte count was negatively correlated with viral load (R = 0.781, p < 0.001), and HLA-DR was positively correlated with viral load (R = 0.489, p < 0.001). High viral load, prolonged APTT time, and elevated HLA-DR level are independent prognostic risk factors for SFTS patients. The T lymphocyte subsets of SFTS patients continue to decrease after infection, and the number of T lymphocyte subsets can reflect the severity of the disease.

The Index of Esophageal Cancer Related Ischemic Stroke: A Retrospective Patient Control Study

PURPOSE

To investigate independent risk factors for esophageal cancer-related ischemic stroke (ECIS) and to use them to develop an index of ECIS to help clinicians identify patients at high risk for ECIS or to identify ECIS from other types of ischemic stroke.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled active esophageal cancer (EC) patients with acute ischemic stroke (ECIS group) and patients with active EC without ischemic stroke (EC group), age- and sex-matched with ECIS patients, at seven centers from January 2011 to December 2020. Clinical data and laboratory and imaging findings were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the independent risk factors for ECIS. Optimal cutoffs for sensitivities and specificities were obtained by Youden's J statistic following a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis of each risk factor and the product of the risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 91 ECIS patients and 91 EC patients were included. Elevated levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) [odds ratio (OR) = 0.105, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.051-1.174, P < 0.001], D-dimer (DD) (OR = 0.003, 95% CI: 1.002-1.004, P < 0.001), and neutrophil count (OR = 0.857, 95% CI: 1.628-3.407, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for ECIS. The area under the curve (AUC) of each independent risk factor and the product of the three independent risk factors were calculated by a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and the cutoff value from the largest AUC was called the ECIS index.

CONCLUSION

It was suggested that elevated plasma DD and CEA levels and increased neutrophils in EC patients may altogether contribute to the development of ECIS. The index of ECIS may facilitate clinicians to identify patients at high risk for ECIS or to identify ECIS from other etiologic types of ischemic stroke.

Correlation of ulcerative colitis and colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A large number of studies have shown that ulcerative colitis (UC) can increase the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). The purpose of the present study was to explore the specific mechanism of UC influence on CRC.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for articles related to CRC and colitis since the establishment of the database until April 2021. Keywords, such as ulcerative colitis, colorectal cancer, and relevance, were used for the article search. Two investigators read through the full text according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria to screen the articles. Cochrane system review manual (version 5.3) was adopted to evaluate the quality of the selected articles. Then, data was extracted, and the overall risk of UC patients into CRC, the course of the disease, and the region were systematically analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 11 studies involving 26,765 patients with UC were included. The results showed that UC is one of the risk factors for CRC. we also found that geographical location also had an impact on the transition from UC to CRC, but the impact was not significant. Patients with colitis had a significantly higher rate of conversion to CRC after 10 to 20 years of disease.

DISCUSSION

A total of 11 articles were included to analyze the association between UC and CRC. The studies found that the location, duration, and geographical location of patients with UC directly affected the occurrence of CRC and are independent risk factors for the transformation of UC into CRC.

Postoperative alterations of sagittal cervical alignment and risk factors for cervical kyphosis in 124 Lenke 1 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients

BACKGROUND

This study aims to analyze postoperative changes of cervical sagittal curvature and to identify independent risk factors for cervical kyphosis in Lenke type 1 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients.

METHODS

A total of 124 AIS patients who received all-pedicle-screw instrumentation were enrolled. All patients were followed up for at least 2 years. The following parameters were measured preoperatively, immediately after the operation, and at the last follow-up: pelvic incidence (PI), pelvic tilt (PT), sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), thoracic kyphosis (TK), global thoracic kyphosis (GTK), proximal thoracic kyphosis (PrTK), T1-slope, cervical lordosis (CL), McGregor slope (McGS), sagittal vertical axis (SVA), C2-7 SVA (cSVA), and main thoracic angle (MTA). Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate postoperative alterations of and correlations between the parameters and to identify risk factors for cervical kyphosis. Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05.

RESULTS

After the operation, PrTK and T1-slope significantly increased (3.01 ± 11.46, 3.8 ± 10.76, respectively), cervical lordosis improved with an insignificant increase (- 2.11 ± 13.47, P = 0.154), and MTA, SS, and LL decreased significantly (- 33.68 ± 15.35, - 2.98 ± 8.41, 2.82 ± 9.92, respectively). Intergroup comparison and logistic regression revealed that preoperative CK > 2.35° and immediate postoperative GTK < 27.15° were independent risk factors for final cervical kyphosis, and △T1-slope < 4.8° for a kyphotic trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative restoration of thoracic kyphosis, especially proximal thoracic kyphosis, and T1-slope play a central role in cervical sagittal compensation. Preoperative CK, postoperative small GTK, and insufficient △T1-slope are all independent risk factors for cervical decompensation.

Recipient-Specific Risk Factors Impairing Patient and Graft Outcome after Pediatric Liver Transplantation-Analysis of 858 Transplantations in 38 Years

(1) Background and Aim: Despite excellent long-term results in pediatric liver transplantation (pLTx), mortality and graft loss still are to be diminished. We aim to describe time-dependent changes and long-term outcome of a large single-center pLTx cohort and to identify independent recipient-related risk factors impairing patient and graft survival. (2) Methods: This is a retrospective single-center study analyzing all pediatric liver transplants from 1983–2020. Risk factors for mortality and graft loss were identified by univariable and multi-linear regression analysis. (3) Results: We analyzed 858 liver transplantations in 705 pediatric patients. Five-year patient/graft survival increased from 60.9%/48.0% (1983–1992) to 97.5%/86.5% (OR = 12.5; p < 0.0001/OR = 6.5; p < 0.0001) (2014–2020). Indications changed significantly over time, with a higher proportion of patients being transplanted for malignancies and metabolic disease and indications of PFIC and α1AT-deficiency declining. The era of transplantation (log7.378/9.657; p < 0.0001) and indication of acute liver failure (log = 1.944/2.667; HR = 2.015/1.772; p = 0.0114/0.002) impairs patient/graft survival significantly in the multivariate analysis. Furthermore, patient survival is worsened by re-transplantation (log = 1.755; HR = 1.744; p = 0.0176) and prolonged waiting times in high-urgency status (log = 2.588; HR = 1.073; p = 0.0026), whereas the indication of biliary atresia improved outcome (log = 1.502; HR = 0.575; p = 0.0315). Graft survival was additionally impaired by pre-existing portal vein thrombosis (log = 1.482; HR = 2.016; p = 0.0330). (4) Conclusions: Despite more complex indications, patient and graft survival after pLTx continue to improve.. Acute liver failure remains the indication with poorest outcome, and listing for high urgency liver transplantation should be considered carefully and early to keep waiting time on HU list short. Furthermore, pre-transplant portal vein thrombosis should be prevented whenever possible to improve graft survival.

Changes in visual function and quality of life in patients with senile cataract following phacoemulsification

BACKGROUND

Phacoemulsification is the accepted first-line treatment for cataracts. This study aims to explore the changes in visual function and quality of life in patients with senile cataracts following phacoemulsification, and its risk factors.

METHODS

The clinical data of 104 patients (202 eyes in total) with senile cataract who underwent phacoemulsification in our hospital from August 2017 to August 2019 were retrospectively analyzed, and finally 102 cases (198 eyes) were enrolled according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These eyes were divided into the low vision group (n=75) and non-low vision group (n=123) The changes in pre- and post-operative visual function and quality of life of patients were compared. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of visual function of patients with senile cataract after phacoemulsification. The correlation between visual function and quality of life was examined.

RESULTS

The postoperative subjective vision, peripheral visual field, visual adaptation, and stereo vision scores, as well as the total score were higher at both 3 days and 3 months compared to the preoperative scores (P<0.05). Also, the postoperative self-care ability, mobility, psychological states, and social ability scores, as well as the total scores were higher at both 3 days and 3 months than the preoperative scores (P<0.05). Age (≥80), preoperative corrected visual acuity (<0.1), a history of glaucoma, postoperative corneal edema, fundus lesions, and a longer phacoemulsification time were independent risk factors affecting the visual function of patients with senile cataract following phacoemulsification (P<0.05). The visual function indexes of patients were positively correlated with the quality of life (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Phacoemulsification can improve the short-term visual function of patients with senile cataract and improve their quality of life. Advanced age, preoperative corrected visual acuity (<0.1), a history of glaucoma, postoperative corneal edema, fundus lesions, and a longer phacoemulsification time are independent risk factors that affect the visual function of patients with senile cataract after phacoemulsification. For patients with the aforementioned high-risk factors, enhanced clinical intervention and evaluation is required to reduce the risk of poor postoperative vision.

Prediction of the Severity of the Coronavirus Disease and Its Adverse Clinical Outcomes

This study aims to investigate blood and biochemical laboratory findings in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to develop a joint predictor for predicting the likelihood of severe COVID-19 and its adverse clinical outcomes and to provide more information for treatment. We collected the data of 88 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Further, the patients were divided into a non-severe group and a critical group (including critically ill cases). Univariate analysis showed that the absolute lymphocyte count, albumin level, albumin/globulin ratio, lactate dehydrogenase level, interleukin-6 (IL-6) level, erythrocyte count, globulin level, blood glucose level, and age were significantly correlated with the severity of COVID-19. The multivariate binary logistic regression model revealed that age, absolute lymphocyte count, and IL-6 level were independent risk factors in patients with COVID-19. The receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that the combination of IL-6 level, absolute lymphocyte count, and age is superior to a single factor as predictors for severe COVID-19, regardless of whether it is in terms of the area under the curve or the prediction sensitivity and specificity. Early application is beneficial to early identification of critically ill patients and timing individual treatments to reduce mortality.

Amniotic immune biomarkers as risk factors in women with different symptoms of threatened late miscarriage

PROBLEM

To investigate risk factors that can help identify the possibility of pregnancy loss in threatened late miscarriage (TLM) patients with and without spontaneous uterine contractions.

METHOD OF STUDY

Amniotic immune biomarkers (IL2β receptor, IL6, IL8, IL10, IL1β, and TNFα) were assayed, and "sludge" was assessed. Patients without intrauterine infections were treated and followed up until delivery, and pregnancy outcomes were recorded. The two groups were compared for the differences in biomarker levels and "sludge," and the independent associations of biomarkers, "sludge," and other maternal factors with late miscarriage were investigated.

RESULTS

The amniotic levels of IL2βR, IL8, and TNFα were higher in the group with contractions (P < .05). When considered alone, each of the six biomarkers was significantly associated with late miscarriage in the no-contractions group and four of these (IL8, IL10, IL1β, and TNFα) in the contractions group (P < .05). Biomarker levels were correlated, and in multivariate Cox regression analysis, there was an independent effect only for IL8 in the no-contractions group (HR = 18.16, 95% CI: 5.75-57.43) and TNFα in the contractions group (HR = 4.11, 95% CI: 1.68-10.08). For patients with contractions, IL10, IL8, and IL1β were different in those with and without "sludge," but no such difference was seen in the no-contractions group.

CONCLUSION

For TLM patients without intrauterine infections, amniotic immune biomarkers differ between patients with different symptoms, not only for their levels but also for the impact of these biomarkers on the risk of late miscarriage. These findings suggest that the symptoms of TLM should be considered in the study of miscarriage risk.

Clinicopathological and prognostic significance of PD-1/PD-L1 axis expression in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) is more aggressive than other head and neck tumors, and the prognosis for patients with advanced TSCC is poor. At present, comprehensive treatment based on surgery as the main method is not effective for patients with advanced TSCC. The application of PD-1/PD-L1 immunocheckpoint inhibitor alone in patients with TSCC has not been reported. To explore the role of PD-1/PD-L1, we investigated the expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 in TSCC and analyzed the relationship between the expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 and the related clinicopathological parameters and survival prognosis. The expression of PD-1 was significantly associated with palindromia (p = .015) and maximum diameter (p = .043). The expression of PD-L1 in tumor cells was significantly associated with N stage (P = .024), chemotherapy (p = .032), and clinical stage (p = .019). The expression of PD-L1 in infiltrating lymphocytes was significantly associated with palindromia (p = .030). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses for prognoses of patients showed significant prognostic factors of overall survival and relapse-free survival. The high expression of PD-L1 on infiltrating lymphocytes for OS and RFS was an independent protective factor for patients with TSCC. The high expression of PD-1 on infiltrating lymphocytes and clinical stage for OS and RFS were independent risk factors for patients with TSCC. The data provide a reference for clinical treatment of TSCC with immunotherapy.

Nomogram For Preoperative Prediction Of Microvascular Invasion Risk In Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Objective

To preoperatively predict the microvascular invasion (MVI) risk in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using nomogram.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 513 patients with HCC hospitalized at Xiangya Hospital between January 2014 and December 2018 was included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for MVI. Based on the independent risk factors, nomogram was established to preoperatively predict the MVI risk in HCC. The accuracy of nomogram was evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Tumor size (OR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.11–1.23, p<0.001), preoperative AFP level greater than 155 ng/mL (OR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.13–2.39, p=0.008) and NLR (OR=1.14, 95% CI: 1.00–1.29, p=0.042) were the independent risk factors for MVI. Incorporating these 3 factors, nomogram was established with the concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66–0.75) and well-fitted calibration curves. DCA confirmed that using this nomogram added more benefit compared with the measures that treat all patients or treat none patients. At the cutoff value of predicted probability ≥0.44, the model demonstrated sensitivity of 61.64%, specificity of 71.53%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 64.13%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 69.31%.

Conclusion

Nomogram was established for preoperative prediction of the MVI risk in HCC patients, and better therapeutic choice will be made if it was applied in clinical practice.

Screening colonoscopy and risk of adverse events among individuals undergoing fecal immunochemical testing in a population-based program: A nested case-control study

Background

Screening by means of biennial fecal occult blood test has provided a reduction in overall colorectal cancer mortality. Notwithstanding, we should not underestimate the harms that it can produce.

Aim

The aim of this article is to identify the independent risk factors of complications after a screening colonoscopy.

Methods

A six-year, nested case-control study was conducted. Mortality/complications within 30 days after colonoscopy were registered and its predictors identified through logistic regression.

Results

After 39,254 colonoscopies, the complication rate was 1.0%. Independent predictors were sex (OR 1.68 for men; CI 95% 1.18-2.39), ASA physical status classification system (OR 1.73 for ASA II-III; CI 95% 1.53-3.69), history of abdominal surgery (OR 2.37; CI 95% 1.72-4.08), diverticulosis (OR 2.89; CI 95% 1.94-4.30), inadequate cleansing (OR 29.35; CI 95% 6.52-132.17), detection of advanced neoplasia (AN) (OR 4.92; CI 95% 3.29-7.36), detection of stage I adenocarcinoma (OR 9.44; CI 95% 4.46-20.0), polyps in right colon OR 2.27 CI 95% 1.38-3.74) and complex polypectomy (OR 2.00; CI 95% 1.25-3.20). The logistic model explained 82% of the complications (CI 95% 0.798-0.854, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Colonoscopy, with or without removal of a lesion, is an invasive procedure with a non-deniable risk of major complications. Factors like inadequate cleansing or detection of AN are determinants. Therefore, it is vital to know which aspects predict their appearance to implement countermeasures.

A new model to predict intravenous immunoglobin-resistant Kawasaki disease

Objectives

To clarify the independent risk factors and construct predictive model for intravenous immunoglobin (IVIG)-resistant KD (IVIGRKD).

Results

The ratio of male to female in the overall samples was 1.62:1 and the incidence of IVIGR was 17.9%. Multivariate regression analysis showed that the OR (95% CI) values of fever duration ≥ 7 days, delayed diagnosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase ≥ 25 U/L, serum sodium ≤ 135 mmol/L, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 2.8 and platelets ≤ 350 × 10⁹/L were 2.94 (2.17–4.00), 1.64 (1.07–2.53), 1.38 (1.07–1.79), 1.68 (1.30–2.19), 1.58 (1.22–2.06) and 1.39 (1.08–1.80), respectively. Based on these OR values, a new predictive model was established with an AUC of 0.685, a sensitivity of 60.7% and a specificity of 66.5%, and showed superiority to formerly reported models. Further analysis of patients ≤ 6 months old gave rise to improved predictions for IVIGRKD with an AUC of 0.746 relative the new model for the total samples.

Materials and Methods

A total of 2,126 KD cases were enrolled in this study. Clinical indicators showing significant differences were screened using univariate analysis, and the independent risk factors were further elucidated using multivariate regression analysis. A new model was constructed, and the predictive ability was evaluated with the area under the curve (AUC) value and the sensitivity and specificity by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Conclusions

The new model for predicting IVIGRKD in this study is superior to those reported previously, and further analysis of patients with IVIGRKD younger than 6 months old allowed optimization of the predictive model.

Effects of antiepileptic drugs on the serum folate and vitamin B12 in various epileptic patients

Epilepsy is a common neurodegenerative disease with an increasing morbidity. Clinical treatment of epilepsy includes symptomatic treatment, etiological treatment, surgery and prevention. The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) on serum folate and vitamin B12 in various epileptic patients, and to examine the correlation between these effects and secondary cerebrovascular events. A total of 68 epileptic patients, diagnosed between May 2012 and May 2014, were included in the present study. The study included 8 cases of autonomic seizures, 10 cases of absence seizures, 13 cases of complex partial seizures, 28 cases of generalized tonic-clonic seizures, and 9 cases of simple partial seizures. The patients received appropriate AED treatment according to the characteristics of epileptic seizure and the treatment guidance. The differences in the serum levels of folate and vitamin B12 in these patients, and the differences in the secondary cerebrovascular events in these patients after 1 year follow-up were analyzed. The difference in the AEDs used by various epileptic patients was statistically significant (P<0.05). The proportion of AED monotherapy in the autonomic seizure group and petit mal group was highest, and the proportion of two AED in combination with the psychomotor seizure, grand mal and simple partial seizure groups was highest. The serum levels of folate and vitamin B12 in these patients following treatment were significantly lower than those prior to treatment (P<0.05). The differences in the serum levels of folate and vitamin B12 in these groups following treatment were not statistically significant (P>0.05). The difference in the incidence of cerebrovascular events in these groups at follow up was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that the serum levels of folate and vitamin B12 were the independent risk factors for epilepsy with secondary cerebrovascular events [folate: odds ratio (OR)=0.536, P=0.039; vitamin: OR=0.382, P=0.041]. In conclusion, various AEDs may decrease the serum levels of folate and vitamin B12 and affect the secondary cerebrovascular events in various epileptic patients. Thus, regular supplementation of folate and vitamin B12 may be an option.

Additional risk factors for infection by multidrug-resistant pathogens in healthcare-associated infection: a large cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of consensus regarding the definition of risk factors for healthcare-associated infection (HCAI). The purpose of this study was to identify additional risk factors for HCAI, which are not included in the current definition of HCAI, associated with infection by multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens, in all hospitalized infected patients from the community.

METHODS

This 1-year prospective cohort study included all patients with infection admitted to a large, tertiary care, university hospital. Risk factors not included in the HCAI definition, and independently associated with MDR pathogen infection, namely MDR Gram-negative (MDR-GN) and ESKAPE microorganisms (vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species, carbapenem-hydrolyzing Klebsiella pneumonia and MDR Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterobacter species), were identified by logistic regression among patients admitted from the community (either with community-acquired or HCAI).

RESULTS

There were 1035 patients with infection, 718 from the community. Of these, 439 (61%) had microbiologic documentation; 123 were MDR (28%). Among MDR: 104 (85%) had MDR-GN and 41 (33%) had an ESKAPE infection. Independent risk factors associated with MDR and MDR-GN infection were: age (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.7 and 1.5, p = 0.001 and p = 0.009, respectively), and hospitalization in the previous year (between 4 and 12 months previously) (adjusted OR = 2.0 and 1,7, p = 0.008 and p = 0.048, respectively). Infection by pathogens from the ESKAPE group was independently associated with previous antibiotic therapy (adjusted OR = 7.2, p < 0.001) and a Karnofsky index <70 (adjusted OR = 3.7, p = 0.003). Patients with infection by MDR, MDR-GN and pathogens from the ESKAPE group had significantly higher rates of inadequate antibiotic therapy than those without (46% vs 7%, 44% vs 10%, 61% vs 15%, respectively, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the inclusion of additional risk factors in the current definition of HCAI for MDR pathogen infection, namely age >60 years, Karnofsky index <70, hospitalization in the previous year, and previous antibiotic therapy, may be clinically beneficial for early diagnosis, which may decrease the rate of inadequate antibiotic therapy among these patients.