How greedy is too greedy? A network toy model for evaluating the sustainability of biased evolutionary dynamics

Modern humanity has changed the biosphere at a global scale, threatening its own sustainability. It is claimed that through technology humans maximize the extraction of energy from the natural system towards their own benefit, with rates of appropriation that surpass the time-scales for systemic adaptation. This time-decoupled coevolutionary dynamic is at the core of human societal unsustainability. Here, we developed in silico experiments of an open energy-based flowing network toy model of natural systems and study the effects that greedy evolutionary strategies, resembling human societal demands, have upon the performance and scarcity tolerance of the system. We aim to determine the flexibility that those biased evolutionary dynamics have for matching or surpassing natural evolution outcomes. We studied four different indexes of system's growth and development (total system throughflow (TST), average mutual information, ascendency and entropy difference) and compare their scarcity tolerance and performance outcomes with respect to four different greedy scenarios. The results showed that greedy strategies rarely surpassed the tolerance and performance achieved by natural systemic evolution. The nature of the greedy scenarios developed were closely related to increases in TST and therefore, we emphasized this comparison. Here, the maximum percentage of greedy networks capable of surpassing natural dynamics was around one-third (approx. [Formula: see text]). However, results suggest the existence of a space parameter where local increases of energy flow can outperform the outcomes of natural systemic evolution, but no evident network property seems to characterize those greedy networks. A mild inverse relationship was found between the number of links that greedy nodes have towards the output and their capacity to outpass the control evolution. As many of the human societal effect upon biospheric processes have dissipative byproducts, knowing that such dynamics might diminish the systems tolerance and performance suggest care in their (ab)use. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Nurturing Sustainability and Health: Exploring the Role of Short Supply Chains in the Evolution of Food Systems-The Case of Poland

Over the last few decades, short food supply chains and local food markets, where farmers either sell their products directly to consumers or use a limited number of intermediaries, have developed worldwide in rural and urban areas. They complement conventional, often globalized, long food chains where small farmers have little bargaining power, and consumers cannot link the food they buy to a known agricultural producer or geographical area where the food is produced. The advantage of direct sales is that producers can obtain a higher price while consumers have easier access to fresh and seasonal food products. The main aim of the paper is to identify and characterize the spatial concentration of local food systems in Poland and their importance in sustainable development and food policy for healthy eating. As part of this study, an analysis of the statistical data of the Central Statistical Office for 2021 was carried out. Data obtained from the Chief Veterinary Inspectorate as of mid-2021 were analyzed to discuss the topic in detail. Descriptive methods and comparative analyses were used to understand regional differences. Absolute and proportional values were used for the research to enable better comparisons between regions, using the traditional method used in spatial structure studies, i.e., the distribution index (number of entities per 1000 inhabitants). The analysis identified spatial differences and possible implications for food policy and regional development. In addition, data on the number of marketplaces in Polish regions in 2022 were used. The study results indicated that short supply chains in the Polish food system contribute to increasing the availability of healthy local products, which may improve consumer health. However, despite these benefits, the results revealed challenges such as the limited production scale of local suppliers and the need to adapt to changing market conditions.

Socio-economic predictors of Inuit hunting choices and their implications for climate change adaptation

In the Arctic, seasonal variation in the accessibility of the land, sea ice and open waters influences which resources can be harvested safely and efficiently. Climate stressors are also increasingly affecting access to subsistence resources. Within Inuit communities, people differ in their involvement with subsistence activities, but little is known about how engagement in the cash economy (time and money available) and other socio-economic factors shape the food production choices of Inuit harvesters, and their ability to adapt to rapid ecological change. We analyse 281 foraging trips involving 23 Inuit harvesters from Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, Canada using a Bayesian approach modelling both patch choice and within-patch success. Gender and income predict Inuit harvest strategies: while men, especially men from low-income households, often visit patches with a relatively low success probability, women and high-income hunters generally have a higher propensity to choose low-risk patches. Inland hunting, marine hunting and fishing differ in the required equipment and effort, and hunters may have to shift their subsistence activities if certain patches become less profitable or less safe owing to high costs of transportation or climate change (e.g. navigate larger areas inland instead of targeting seals on the sea ice). Our finding that household income predicts patch choice suggests that the capacity to maintain access to country foods depends on engagement with the cash economy. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Fifteen essential science advances needed for effective restoration of the world's forest landscapes

There has never been a more pressing and opportune time for science and practice to collaborate towards restoration of the world's forests. Multiple uncertainties remain for achieving successful, long-term forest landscape restoration (FLR). In this article, we use expert knowledge and literature review to identify knowledge gaps that need closing to advance restoration practice, as an introduction to a landmark theme issue on FLR and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Aligned with an Adaptive Management Cycle for FLR, we identify 15 essential science advances required to facilitate FLR success for nature and people. They highlight that the greatest science challenges lie in the conceptualization, planning and assessment stages of restoration, which require an evidence base for why, where and how to restore, at realistic scales. FLR and underlying sciences are complex, requiring spatially explicit approaches across disciplines and sectors, considering multiple objectives, drivers and trade-offs critical for decision-making and financing. The developing tropics are a priority region, where scientists must work with stakeholders across the Adaptive Management Cycle. Clearly communicated scientific evidence for action at the outset of restoration planning will enable donors, decision makers and implementers to develop informed objectives, realistic targets and processes for accountability. This article paves the way for 19 further articles in this theme issue, with author contributions from across the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Rarity begets rarity: Social and environmental drivers of rare organisms in cities

Cities are sometimes characterized as homogenous with species assemblages composed of abundant, generalist species having similar ecological functions. Under this assumption, rare species, or species observed infrequently, would have especially high conservation value in cities for their potential to increase functional diversity. Management to increase the number of rare species in cities could be an important conservation strategy in a rapidly urbanizing world. However, most studies of species rarity define rarity in relatively pristine environments where human management and disturbance is minimized. We know little about what species are rare, how many species are rare, and what management practices promote rare species in urban environments. Here, we identified which plants and species of birds and bees that control pests and pollinate crops are rare in urban gardens and assessed how social, biophysical factors, and cross-taxonomic comparisons influence rare species richness. We found overwhelming numbers of rare species, with more than 50% of plants observed classified as rare. Our results highlight the importance of women, older individuals, and gardeners who live closer to garden sites in increasing the number of rare plants within urban areas. Fewer rare plants were found in older gardens and gardens with more bare soil. There were more rare bird species in larger gardens and more rare bee species for which canopy cover was higher. We also found that in some cases, rarity begets rarity, with positive correlations found between the number of rare plants and bee species and between bee and bird species. Overall, our results suggest that urban gardens include a high number of species existing at low frequency and that social and biophysical factors promoting rare, planned biodiversity can cascade down to promote rare, associated biodiversity.

Large-scale reforestation can increase water yield and reduce drought risk for water-insecure regions in the Asia-Pacific

Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modeling for the period 2041-2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < .05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China, and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience nonsignificant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation.

Modelling coupled human-environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: strengths, gaps and promising directions

Humans and the environment form a single complex system where humans not only influence ecosystems but also react to them. Despite this, there are far fewer coupled human–environment system (CHES) mathematical models than models of uncoupled ecosystems. We argue that these coupled models are essential to understand the impacts of social interventions and their potential to avoid catastrophic environmental events and support sustainable trajectories on multi-decadal timescales. A brief history of CHES modelling is presented, followed by a review spanning recent CHES models of systems including forests and land use, coral reefs and fishing and climate change mitigation. The ability of CHES modelling to capture dynamic two-way feedback confers advantages, such as the ability to represent ecosystem dynamics more realistically at longer timescales, and allowing insights that cannot be generated using ecological models. We discuss examples of such key insights from recent research. However, this strength brings with it challenges of model complexity and tractability, and the need for appropriate data to parameterize and validate CHES models. Finally, we suggest opportunities for CHES models to improve human–environment sustainability in future research spanning topics such as natural disturbances, social structure, social media data, model discovery and early warning signals.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

A protocol for a longitudinal, observational cohort study of infection and exposure to zoonotic and vector-borne diseases across a land-use gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo: a socio-ecological systems approach

Introduction. Landscape changes disrupt environmental, social and biological systems, altering pathogen spillover and transmission risks. This study aims to quantify the impact of specific land management practices on spillover and transmission rates of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases within Malaysian Borneo. This protocol describes a cohort study with integrated ecological sampling to assess how deforestation and agricultural practices impact pathogen flow from wildlife and vector populations to human infection and detection by health facilities. This will focus on malaria, dengue and emerging arboviruses (Chikungunya and Zika), vector-borne diseases with varying contributions of simian reservoirs within this setting. Methods. A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study will be established in communities residing or working within the vicinity of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a landscape gradient within Malaysian Borneo encompassing different plantation and forest types. The primary outcome of this study will be transmission intensity of selected zoonotic and vector-borne diseases, as quantified by changes in pathogen-specific antibody levels. Exposure will be measured using paired population-based serological surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the two-year cohort study. Secondary outcomes will include the distribution and infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquito vectors, human risk behaviours and clinical cases reported to health facilities. Longitudinal data on human behaviour, contact with wildlife and GPS tracking of mobility patterns will be collected throughout the study period. This will be integrated with entomological surveillance to monitor densities and pathogen infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes relative to land cover. Within surrounding health clinics, continuous health facility surveillance will be used to monitor reported infections and febrile illnesses. Models will be developed to assess spillover and transmission rates relative to specific land management practices and evaluate abilities of surveillance systems to capture these risks.

A "Cookbook" for Vulnerability Research

There is a growing need to facilitate the interdisciplinary study of the relationship between the environment and human health and well-being. It is increasingly recognized that vulnerability is a key construct allowing discipline-specific research questions on these topics to be meaningfully contextualized. However, there is little consensus regarding the meaning of the concept of vulnerability or how it can best be utilized in research studies. In this perspective article, we use the metaphor of a “cookbook” to review promising trends in vulnerability research and to make this body of research accessible to a multi-disciplinary audience. Specifically, we discuss a selection of “recipes” (theoretical frameworks), “ingredients” (vulnerability domains), “cooking tools” (qualitative and quantitative methods), and approaches to “meal presentation” (communication of results) drawn from vulnerability studies published in the past 15 years. Our aim is for this short “cookbook” to serve as a jumping-off point for scholars unfamiliar with the vulnerability literature and an inspiration for scholars more familiar with this topic to develop new ways to navigate the tension between locally-specific assessments of vulnerability and attempts at standardization. Our ultimate take-home message is that the specifics theories and methods used in vulnerability research are less important than attention to what we see as the 3 ‘T’s of transparency, triangulation, and transferability, and to efforts to make vulnerability research both “place-based” and comparable.

The Provision of Urban Ecosystem Services Throughout the Private-Social-Public Domain: A Conceptual Framework

As cities are largely private systems, recent investigations have assessed the provision of ecosystem services from the private realm. However, these assessments are largely based on the concept of ownership and fail to capture the complexity of service provision mediated by interactions between people and ecological structures. In fact, people interact with ecological structures in their role of land tenants and stewards, further modulating the provision of ecosystem services. We devise a theoretical framework based on the concepts of ownership, tenancy, and stewardship, in which people, as mediators of ecosystem services, regulate the provision of services throughout the private-social-public domain. We survey relevant literature describing these dimensions and propose a comprehensive framework focused on the private-social-public domain. Our framework can advance ecosystem service research and enhance the provision of ecosystems services. The inclusion of people's individual, social and public roles in the mediation of ecosystem services could improve how benefits are planned for, prioritized, and optimized across cities.

Integrating Human and Ecosystem Health Through Ecosystem Services Frameworks

The pace and scale of environmental change is undermining the conditions for human health. Yet the environment and human health remain poorly integrated within research, policy and practice. The ecosystem services (ES) approach provides a way of promoting integration via the frameworks used to represent relationships between environment and society in simple visual forms. To assess this potential, we undertook a scoping review of ES frameworks and assessed how each represented seven key dimensions, including ecosystem and human health. Of the 84 ES frameworks identified, the majority did not include human health (62%) or include feedback mechanisms between ecosystems and human health (75%). While ecosystem drivers of human health are included in some ES frameworks, more comprehensive frameworks are required to drive forward research and policy on environmental change and human health.

Ready for phase 5 - current status of ethnobiology in Southeast Asia

BACKGROUND

Southeast Asia is known for its rich linguistic, cultural and biological diversity. While ethnobiology in the west has benefitted greatly from intellectual and methodological advances over the last decades, the status of Southeast Asian ethnobiology is largely unknown. This study aims to provide an analysis of the current status of ethnobiology in Southeast Asia and outlines possibilities for future advancements.

METHODS

We accessed papers cited in the Scopus and Web of Science databases for the period of 1960 to 2014 using the current as well as previous names of the 11 Southeast Asian countries and various disciplines of ethnobiology as key words. We juxtaposed the number of publications from each country against its number of indigenous groups and languages, to see if ethnobiology research has addressed this full spectrum of ethnical diversity. The available data for the last ten years was analysed according to the five phases concept to understand the nature of studies dominating Southeast Asian ethnobiology.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

A total number of 312 publications were recorded in the databases for the period 1960-2014. Indonesia ranks highest (93 studies), followed by Thailand (68), Malaysia (58) Philippines (42), Vietnam (31), Laos (29), and other Southeast Asian countries (44). A strong correlation was found between the number of publications for each country, the number of indigenous groups, and the number of endangered languages. Comparing the data available for the period 2005-2009 with 2010-2014, we found a strong increase in the number of phase 5 publications. However, papers with bioprospecting focus were also on the rise, especially in Malaysia. Our study indicates that ethnobiologists still need to realise the full potential of the Biocultural Diversity of Southeast Asia, and that there is a strong need to focus more on socially relevant research.

Why socio-political borders and boundaries matter in conservation

Acting to demarcate the spatial limits of decision-making processes, socio-political boundaries are an inevitable part of a human-dominated world. Rarely coincident with ecological boundaries, and thus having no ecological functional role by themselves, they nevertheless impose substantial costs on biodiversity and ecosystem conservation by fragmenting ownership, governance, and management. Where boundaries are in place, a lack of coordination on either side of a boundary affects the efficiency and efficacy of ecosystem management. We suggest four research pathways which will enhance our ability to address the adverse effects of socio-political borders on conservation: (i) scale-matching, (ii) quantification of the mutual economic benefits of conservation across boundaries, (iii) determining transboundary societal values, and (iv) acknowledging the importance of stakeholder behaviour and incentives.

Evidence in support of the role of disturbance vegetation for women's health and childcare in Western Africa

BACKGROUND

In savannah-dominated Bénin, West Africa, and forest-dominated Gabon, Central Africa, plants are a major source of healthcare for women and children. Due to this high demand and the reliance on wild populations as sources for medicinal plants, overharvesting of African medicinal plants is a common concern. Few studies in Western Africa, however, have assessed variations in harvest patterns across different ecological zones and within local communities.

METHODS

We investigated which vegetation types women accessed to harvest medicinal plants by conducting 163 questionnaires with market vendors and women from urban and rural communities. We made botanical vouchers of cited species and collected information on their vegetation type and cultivation status.

RESULTS

Secondary vegetation was a crucial asset; over 80% of the 335 Beninese and 272 Gabonese plant species came from disturbance vegetation and home gardens. In Bénin, access to trade channels allowed female market vendors to use more vulnerable species than rural and urban women who harvested for personal use. In Gabon, no relationship was found between vulnerable plant use and informant type.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the underemphasized point that secondary vegetation is an asset for women and children's health in both savanna-dominated and forest-dominated landscapes. The use of disturbance vegetation demonstrates women's resilience in meeting healthcare needs in the limited amount of space that is available to them. Species of conservation concern included forest species and savanna trees sold at markets in Bénin, especially Xylopia aethiopica, Khaya senegalensis, and Monodora myristica, and the timber trees with medicinal values in Gabon, such as Baillonella toxisperma.

How resilient are Europe's inshore fishing communities to change? Differences between the north and the south

One would hypothesize that the Common Fisheries Policy, as the umbrella framework for fisheries management in the EU would have the greatest impact on fishers' communities across Europe. There are, however, biological, economic, social, and political factors, which vary among fishing communities that can affect how these communities react to changes. This paper explores the links between institutional arrangements and ecological dynamics in two European inshore fisheries socio-ecological systems, using a resilience framework. The Mediterranean small-scale fishers do not seem to have been particularly affected by the Common Fisheries Policy regulations but appear affected by competition with the politically strong recreational fishers and the invasion of the rabbit fish population. The inshore fishers along the East coast of Scotland believe that their interests are not as sufficiently protected as the interests of their offshore counterpart. Decisions and initiatives at global, EU, and sometimes national level, tend to take into account those fisheries sectors which have a national economic importance. A socio-ecological analysis can shift the focus from biological and economic aspects to more sustainable long-term delivery of environmental benefits linked to human wellbeing.

Reviewing Biosphere Reserves globally: effective conservation action or bureaucratic label?

The Biosphere Reserve (BR) model of UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Programme reflects a shift towards more accountable conservation. Biosphere Reserves attempt to reconcile environmental protection with sustainable development; they explicitly acknowledge humans, and human interests in the conservation landscape while still maintaining the ecological values of existing protected areas. Conceptually, this model is attractive, with 610 sites currently designated globally. Yet the practical reality of implementing dual 'conservation' and 'development' goals is challenging, with few examples successfully conforming to the model's full criteria. Here, we review the history of Biosphere Reserves from first inception in 1974 to the current status quo, and examine the suitability of the designation as an effective conservation model. We track the spatial expansion of Biosphere Reserves globally, assessing the influence of the Statutory Framework of the World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Seville strategy in 1995, when the BR concept refocused its core objectives on sustainable development. We use a comprehensive range of case studies to discuss conformity to the Programme, the social and ecological consequences associated with implementation of the designation, and challenges in aligning conservation and development. Given that the 'Biosphere Reserve' label is a relatively unknown designation in the public arena, this review also provides details on popularising the Biosphere Reserve brand, as well as prospects for further research, currently unexploited, but implicit in the designation.