Closing Greenhouse Gas Emission Gaps of Staple Crops in China

China is facing the dual challenge of achieving food security and agricultural carbon neutrality. Developing spatially explicit crop emission profiles can help inform policy to mitigate agricultural greenhouse gases (GHGs), but previous life-cycle studies were conducted mostly at national and provincial levels. Here, we estimate county-level carbon footprint of China's wheat and maize production based on a nationwide survey and determine the contribution of different strategies to closing regional emission gaps. Results show that crop carbon footprint varies widely between regions, from 0.07 to 3.00 kg CO₂e kg^-1 for wheat and from 0.09 to 2.30 kg CO₂e kg^-1 for maize, with inter-county variation generally much higher than interprovince variation. Hotspots are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang and Gansu provinces, owing to intensive irrigation and high plastic mulch and fertilizer inputs. Closing the regional emission gaps would benefit mostly from increasing crop yields and nitrogen use efficiency, but increasing manure use (e.g., in Northeast, East, and Central China) and energy use efficiency (e.g., in North and Northwest China) can also make important contributions. Our county-level carbon footprint estimates improve upon previous broad-scale results and will be valuable for detailed spatial analysis and the design of localized GHG mitigation strategies in China.

Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub-Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

Cropping is responsible for substantial emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) worldwide through the use of fertilizers and through expansion of agricultural land and associated carbon losses. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), GHG emissions from these processes might increase steeply in coming decades, due to tripling demand for food until 2050 to match the steep population growth. This study assesses the impact of achieving cereal self-sufficiency by the year 2050 for 10 SSA countries on GHG emissions related to different scenarios of increasing cereal production, ranging from intensifying production to agricultural area expansion. We also assessed different nutrient management variants in the intensification. Our analysis revealed that irrespective of intensification or extensification, GHG emissions of the 10 countries jointly are at least 50% higher in 2050 than in 2015. Intensification will come, depending on the nutrient use efficiency achieved, with large increases in nutrient inputs and associated GHG emissions. However, matching food demand through conversion of forest and grasslands to cereal area likely results in much higher GHG emissions. Moreover, many countries lack enough suitable land for cereal expansion to match food demand. In addition, we analysed the uncertainty in our GHG estimates and found that it is caused primarily by uncertainty in the IPCC Tier 1 coefficient for direct N₂ O emissions, and by the agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (N-AE). In conclusion, intensification scenarios are clearly superior to expansion scenarios in terms of climate change mitigation, but only if current N-AE is increased to levels commonly achieved in, for example, the United States, and which have been demonstrated to be feasible in some locations in SSA. As such, intensifying cereal production with good agronomy and nutrient management is essential to moderate inevitable increases in GHG emissions. Sustainably increasing crop production in SSA is therefore a daunting challenge in the coming decades.

Agroclimatology and Wheat Production: Coping with Climate Change

Cereal production around the world is critical to the food supply for the human population. Crop productivity is primarily determined by a combination of temperature and precipitation because temperatures have to be in the range for plant growth and precipitation has to supply crop water requirements for a given environment. The question is often asked about the changes in productivity and what we can expect in the future and we evaluated the causes for variation in historical annual statewide wheat grain yields in Oklahoma, Kansas, and North Dakota across the Great Plains of United States. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is adapted to this area and we focused on production in these states from 1950 to 2016. This analysis used a framework for annual yields using yield gaps between attainable and actual yields and found the primary cause of the variation among years were attributable to inadequate precipitation during the grain-filling period. In Oklahoma, wheat yields were reduced when April and May precipitation was limited (r2 = 0.70), while in Kansas, May precipitation was the dominant factor (r2 = 0.78), and in North Dakota June-July precipitation was the factor explaining yield variation (r2 = 0.65). Temperature varied among seasons and at the statewide level did not explain a significant portion of the yield variation. The pattern of increased variation in precipitation will cause further variation in wheat production across the Great Plains. Reducing yield variation among years will require adaptation practices that increase water availability to the crop coupled with the positive impact derived from other management practices, e.g., cultivars, fertilizer management, etc.

Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems

The emergence of satellite sensors that can routinely observe millions of individual smallholder farms raises possibilities for monitoring and understanding agricultural productivity in many regions of the world. Here we demonstrate the potential to track smallholder maize yield variation in western Kenya, using a combination of 1-m Terra Bella imagery and intensive field sampling on thousands of fields over 2 y. We find that agreement between satellite-based and traditional field survey-based yield estimates depends significantly on the quality of the field-based measures, with agreement highest ([Formula: see text] up to 0.4) when using precise field measures of plot area and when using larger fields for which rounding errors are smaller. We further show that satellite-based measures are able to detect positive yield responses to fertilizer and hybrid seed inputs and that the inferred responses are statistically indistinguishable from estimates based on survey-based yields. These results suggest that high-resolution satellite imagery can be used to make predictions of smallholder agricultural productivity that are roughly as accurate as the survey-based measures traditionally used in research and policy applications, and they indicate a substantial near-term potential to quickly generate useful datasets on productivity in smallholder systems, even with minimal or no field training data. Such datasets could rapidly accelerate learning about which interventions in smallholder systems have the most positive impact, thus enabling more rapid transformation of rural livelihoods.

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

A heterogeneous landscape does not guarantee high crop pollination

The expansion of pollinator-dependent crops, especially in the developing world, together with reports of worldwide pollinator declines, raises concern of possible yield gaps. Farmers directly reliant on pollination services for food supply often live in regions where our knowledge of pollination services is poor. In a manipulative experiment replicated at 23 sites across an Ethiopian agricultural landscape, we found poor pollination services and severe pollen limitation in a common oil crop. With supplementary pollination, the yield increased on average by 91%. Despite the heterogeneous agricultural matrix, we found a low bee abundance, which may explain poor pollination services. The variation in pollen limitation was unrelated to surrounding forest cover, local bee richness and bee abundance. While practices that commonly increase pollinators (restricted pesticide use, flower strips) are an integral part of the landscape, these elements are apparently insufficient. Management to increase pollination services is therefore in need of urgent investigation.

Yield and Production Gaps in Rainfed Wheat, Barley, and Canola in Alberta

Improving crop yields are essential to meet the increasing pressure of global food demands. The loss of high quality land, the slowing in annual yield increases of major cereals, increasing fertilizer use, and the effect of this on the environment all indicate that we need to develop new strategies to increase grain yields with less impact on the environment. One strategy that could help address this concern is by narrowing the yield gaps of major crops using improved genetics and management. The objective of this study was to determine wheat (Triticum spp. L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and canola (Brassica napus L.) yields and production gaps in Alberta. We used 10 years of data (2005-2014) to understand yield variability and input efficiency at a farmers' specified level of management, and the yield potential under optimal management to suggest appropriate pathways for closing yield gaps. Significant management gaps were observed between attainable and actual yields of rainfed wheat (24%), barley (25%), and canola (30%). In addition, genetic gaps (i.e., gaps due to genetic selection) in wheat, barley, and canola were 18, 12, and 5%, respectively. Genetic selection with optimal crop management could increase yields of wheat, barley, and canola significantly, with estimated yield gains of 3.42, 1.92, and 1.65 million tons, respectively, each year under rainfed conditions in Alberta. This paper identifies yield gaps and offers suggestions to improve efficiency in crop production.

Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation

Increasing agricultural productivity to 'close yield gaps' creates both perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation. Yield increases often have negative impacts on species within farmland, but at the same time could potentially make it more feasible to minimize further cropland expansion into natural habitats. We combine global data on yield gaps, projected future production of maize, rice and wheat, the distributions of birds and their estimated sensitivity to changes in crop yields to map where it might be most beneficial for bird conservation to close yield gaps as part of a land-sparing strategy, and where doing so might be most damaging. Closing yield gaps to attainable levels to meet projected demand in 2050 could potentially help spare an area equivalent to that of the Indian subcontinent. Increasing yields this much on existing farmland would inevitably reduce its biodiversity, and therefore we advocate efforts both to constrain further increases in global food demand, and to identify the least harmful ways of increasing yields. The land-sparing potential of closing yield gaps will not be realized without specific mechanisms to link yield increases to habitat protection (and restoration), and therefore we suggest that conservationists, farmers, crop scientists and policy-makers collaborate to explore promising mechanisms.