Analysing the evolution of aerospace ecosystem development

Aerospace manufacturing industry is predicted to continue growing. Rising demand is triggering the current global aerospace ecosystem to evolve and adapt to challenges never faced before. New players into the aerospace manufacturing industry and the development of new ecosystems are evidencing its evolution. Understanding how the aerospace ecosystem has evolved is thus essential to prepare optimal conditions to nurture its growth. Recent studies have successfully combined economics and network science methods to map, analyse and predict the evolution of industrial ecosystems. In comparison to previous studies which apply network science-based methodologies to macro-economic research, this paper uses these methods to analyse the evolution of a particular industrial ecosystem, namely the aerospace sector. In particular, we develop bipartite country-product networks based on trade data over 25 years, to identify patterns and similarities in the evolution of developed aerospace manufacturing countries ecosystems. The analysis is elaborated at a macroscopic (network) and microscopic (nodes) levels. Motivated by studies in ecological networks, we use nestedness analysis to find patterns depicting the distribution and evolution of exported products across ecosystems. Our analysis reveals that developed ecosystems tend to become more analogous, as countries lean towards having a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in the same group of products. Countries also tend to become more nested in their aerospace product space as they start developing a higher RCA. It is revealed that although countries develop an advantage on unique products, they also tend to increase competition with each other. Further analysis shows that manufactured products have a stronger correlation to an aerospace ecosystem than primary products; and in particular, the automotive sector shows the highest correlation with positive aerospace sector evolution. Competition between countries with well-developed aerospace ecosystems tends to centre on automotive parts, general industrial machinery, power generating machinery and equipment, and chemical materials and products.

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

Fatal accident rates for instrument-rated private pilots

BACKGROUND

The fatality rate for general aviation, 82 times that of air carriers and even higher for those involving aeromedical transportation, has not declined over time. Although noncommercial (private) pilots are increasingly seeking the instrument rating (IFR), which offers safety advantages, there is a paucity of research on causes of fatal crashes for this aviator subset.

METHODS

The NTSB accident database was queried for general aviation fatal accidents involving private pilots. Exact two sample proportions, linear regression model outcomes (log-odds), and Poisson rate ratio tests were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The fatal accident rate for flights in instrument conditions decreased 55% over 10 yr (2002-2011) although an increased fatality rate was evident for pilots > 65 yr of age. Instrument approach deficiency (lAD), spatial disorientation/failure to maintain control (SD/FMC), and failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance (FMOTC) were common causes of fatal accidents in reduced visibility. However a > 55% decline in fatal accidents due to IAD was evident over the decade. Under visual conditions, engine/air-frame malfunction, aerodynamic stall, and FMOTC represented frequent causes. Of these, FMOTC showed a statistically significant decline over 10 yr. Comparing day and night operations, fatal crashes attributed to FMOTC and IAD were more frequent at night.

CONCLUSION

For the IFR-rated private pilot, our study argues for an emphasis on training and currency in SD/FMC and aerodynamic stall recovery. Likewise training to remedy IAD, the frequent cause of fatal night accidents, and flying by instrument flight rules to assure obstacle/terrain clearance should be encouraged for pilots undertaking such operations.

Analysis of technological innovation and environmental performance improvement in aviation sector

The past oil crises have caused dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency in all industrial sectors. The aviation sector-aircraft manufacturers and airlines-has also made significant efforts to improve the fuel efficiency through more advanced jet engines, high-lift wing designs, and lighter airframe materials. However, the innovations in energy-saving aircraft technologies do not coincide with the oil crisis periods. The largest improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency took place in the 1960s while the high oil prices in the 1970s and on did not induce manufacturers or airlines to achieve a faster rate of innovation. In this paper, we employ a historical analysis to examine the socio-economic reasons behind the relatively slow technological innovation in aircraft fuel efficiency over the last 40 years. Based on the industry and passenger behaviors studied and prospects for alternative fuel options, this paper offers insights for the aviation sector to shift toward more sustainable technological options in the medium term. Second-generation biofuels could be the feasible option with a meaningful reduction in aviation's lifecycle environmental impact if they can achieve sufficient economies of scale.

Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050

This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

Screening programme evaluation applied to airport security

Eleni Linos, Elizabeth Linos, and Graham Colditz investigate whether airport security screening would pass the National Screening Committee’s criteria for an effective screening test

The future of scientific ballooning

This paper gives a brief overview of the historical development of scientific balloons and their capabilities. Furthermore, a recent programme by NASA is introduced that aims to develop balloons capable of carrying payloads of several tonnes to above 99% of the Earth's atmosphere for up to 100 days. It is shown that the currently investigated balloons suffer from instabilities that can be minimized using a different design paradigm for the cutting patterns. Finally, a novel balloon design, similar to the topology of radiolarians, is introduced that is potentially superior to existing designs.

The engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation

Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with unique impacts due to the altitude of emissions. If existing traffic growth rates continue, radical engineering solutions will be required to prevent aviation becoming one of the dominant contributors to climate change. This paper reviews the engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation using aircraft and airspace technologies. These options include not only improvements in fuel efficiency, which would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also measures to reduce non-CO2 impacts including the formation of persistent contrails. Integrated solutions to optimize environmental performance will require changes to airframes, engines, avionics, air traffic control systems and airspace design. While market-based measures, such as offset schemes and emissions trading, receive growing attention, this paper sets out the crucial role of engineering in the challenge to develop a 'green air traffic system'.

Energy and transport

We examine the links between fossil-fuel-based transportation, greenhouse-gas emissions, and health. Transport-related carbon emissions are rising and there is increasing consensus that the growth in motorised land vehicles and aviation is incompatible with averting serious climate change. The energy intensity of land transport correlates with its adverse health effects. Adverse health effects occur through climate change, road-traffic injuries, physical inactivity, urban air pollution, energy-related conflict, and environmental degradation. For the world's poor people, walking is the main mode of transport, but such populations often experience the most from the harms of energy-intensive transport. New energy sources and improvements in vehicle design and in information technology are necessary but not sufficient to reduce transport-related carbon emissions without accompanying behavioural change. By contrast, active transport has the potential to improve health and equity, and reduce emissions. Cities require safe and pleasant environments for active transport with destinations in easy reach and, for longer journeys, public transport that is powered by renewable energy, thus providing high levels of accessibility without car use. Much investment in major road projects does not meet the transport needs of poor people, especially women whose trips are primarily local and off road. Sustainable development is better promoted through improving walking and cycling infrastructures, increasing access to cycles, and investment in transport services for essential needs. Our model of London shows how increased active transport could help achieve substantial reductions in emissions by 2030 while improving population health. There exists the potential for a global contraction and convergence in use of fossil-fuel energy for transport to benefit health and achieve sustainability.

[Injury patterns and typical stress situations in paragliding]

Paragliding is known as a high risk sport with a substantial rate of severe and fatal injuries. Analysis of typical injury mechanisms and statistics showed that the total rate of paragliding injuries has decreased in recent years for an increasing number of pilots. In 2003, the rate of severe and fatal injuries in paragliding was less than that of other air sports and motorcycling. Through the introduction of a spine protector system in Germany and Austria, the number of vertebral fractures decreased significantly between 2000 and 2003. Most other injuries, especially of the lower extremities, could be avoided by adequate and farsighted flight behavior. Qualified instruction with regular training, standardized development of safety equipment and consequent analysis of paragliding injuries will help to improve the safety status in paragliding.

[Kitesurfing injuries. A trendy youth sport ]

The aim of this review article is to give an overview of current knowledge on kitesurfing injuries. As part of a prospective study, the overall self-reported injury rate was 7.0 per 1000 h of practice. One fatal accident and 11 severe injuries occurred. The most commonly injured sites were foot and ankle, head, chest, and knee. Contusions, abrasions, and lacerations were amongst the most frequent injuries. None of the athletes suffering a head injury used a helmet; the board had been flung against the head by the elastic board leech in all cases. The most common injury situation was the jump. Fifty-six percent of the injuries were attributed to the inability to detach the kite from the harness. There was a tendency that athletes using a quick release system, which enables the surfers to detach the kite in emergency situations, sustained fewer injuries than athletes without such a release system. In conclusion, kitesurfing is a sport with a comparably high injury rate. Preventive measures can reduce the injury rate considerably.

Flexibility in system design and implications for aerospace systems

The purpose of this paper is to review the concept of flexibility as discussed in various fields of investigations, to extract its characteristic features, and to explore its implications in the case of aerospace system design. In order to discuss any subject matter clearly, it is necessary to begin with a clear set of definitions. Indeed much can be gained through careful and consistent definitions of terms alone. Flexibility however is a word rich with ambiguity. While it is being increasingly used in various fields, few attempts have been made to formally define, quantify, and propose ways for achieving flexibility. This paper proposes to fill in part of this gap by synthesizing a clear and consistent definition of flexibility. It will do so by reviewing the usage of the term in various fields of inquiries, and show that it is indeed possible to clearly and unambiguously characterize flexibility, and to disentangle it from closely related concepts.

[Review of visual display system in flight simulator]

Visual display system is the key part and plays a very important role in flight simulators and flight training devices. The developing history of visual display system is recalled and the principle and characters of some visual display systems including collimated display systems and back-projected collimated display systems are described. The future directions of visual display systems are analyzed.

Letting thoughts take wing

Recent developments in neuroelectronics are applied to aviation and airplane flight control instruments. Electromyographic control has been applied to flight simulations using the autopilot interface in order to use gestures to give bank and pitch commands to the autopilot. In other demonstrations, direct rate control was used to perform repeated successful landings and the damage-adaptive capability of inner-loop neural and propulsion-based controls was utilized.

National culture and flight deck automation: results of a multination survey

Attitudes regarding flight deck automation were surveyed in a sample of 5,879 airline pilots from 12 nations. The average difference in endorsement levels across 11 items for pilots flying automated aircraft in 12 nations was 53%, reflecting significant national differences in attitudes on all items, with the largest differences observed for preference and enthusiasm for automation. The range of agreement across nations was on average four times larger than the range of agreement across different airlines within the same nation, and roughly six times larger than the range across pilots of standard and pilots of automated aircraft. Patterns of response are described in terms of dimensions of national culture. Implications of the results for development of safety cultures and culturally sensitive training are discussed.

The evolution of Crew Resource Management training in commercial aviation

In this study, we describe changes in the nature of Crew Resource Management (CRM) training in commercial aviation, including its shift from cockpit to crew resource management. Validation of the impact of CRM is discussed. Limitations of CRM, including lack of cross-cultural generality are considered. An overarching framework that stresses error management to increase acceptance of CRM concepts is presented. The error management approach defines behavioral strategies taught in CRM as error countermeasures that are employed to avoid error, to trap errors committed, and to mitigate the consequences of error.

It is not how much you have but how you use it: toward a rational use of simulation to support aviation training

One of the most remarkable changes in aviation training over the past few decades is the use of simulation. The capabilities now offered by simulation have created unlimited opportunities for aviation training. In fact, aviation training is now more realistic, safe, cost-effective, and flexible than ever before. However, we believe that a number of misconceptions--or invalid assumptions--exist in the simulation community that prevent us from fully exploiting and utilizing recent scientific advances in a number of related fields in order to further enhance aviation training. These assumptions relate to the overreliance on high-fidelity simulation and to the misuse of simulation to enhance learning of complex skills. The purpose of this article is to discuss these assumptions in the hope of initiating a dialogue between behavioral scientists and engineers.

Urinalysis drug testing within a civilian pilot training program: did attitudes change during the 1990's?

BACKGROUND

Attitudes toward fairness and effectiveness of mandatory drug testing vary within pilot populations (4,8) as well as other populations (3). This descriptive-correlational study examined civilian student pilots' attitudes toward urinalysis (UA) drug testing over a 10-yr period and the pilots' opinions regarding effectiveness, adequacy, and fairness of the testing as a deterrent for substance abuse among pilots.

METHODS

A sample of three different groups of civilian aviation students (n = 314), consisted of 103 pilots studied prior to implementing a mandatory drug testing program, 113 pilots studied 1 yr after implementing a mandatory drug testing program, and 98 pilots studied 6 yr into a mandatory drug testing program. A 14-item questionnaire (alpha = 0.74), indicating degrees of agreement, was completed by the student pilots who were enrolled in a large civilian pilot training program.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences among the study pilots' feelings related to anxiety of drug testing when comparing non-mandatory and mandatory groups over time. The pilots continue to believe that alcohol use by pilots within this civilian piloting training program has decreased since testing was mandated and that drug use also showed a significant decrease (p = 0.01), although not as significant (p = 0.0001) as the decrease in alcohol use.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that alcohol and drug testing is more generally accepted by the pilots in the study as the decade of the 1990s came to a close.

Occupational cancer risk in pilots and flight attendants: current epidemiological knowledge

Occupational studies of aircrew in civil or military aviation did not receive much attention until the beginning of this decade. Since 1990, a number of epidemiological studies has been published on the cancer risk among flight personnel. Their results are equivocal: elevated cancer risks have been observed in some studies, but not in others. The exposure situation for pilots and flight attendants is unique with respect to several factors and particularly in that cosmic rays contribute substantially to their cumulative radiation dose. The average annual doses received are relatively low, however, and commonly range between 3 and 6 mSv. Results of epidemiological studies are presented as well as information on planned studies.

[Aviation medicine in Russia on the threshold of the 3d millennium]

Analysis of the interrelated development of aviation technologies and aeromedical science pointed out that the mainstream of aviation medicine as science is integration of human factors equally in the processes of aviation technology development, testing, and operation. Focus is placed on the methodology of aviation medicine and prospect for its refining in the interests of better effectiveness and safety of flights, maintenance of health and prolongation of career of all categories of flying personnel.

[From present day aviation medicine to aviation anthropologic ecology of the future]

Rationale is given to the proposition that aviation medicine including psychophysiology and ergonomics is a peculiar kind of aviation anthropoecology as a variety of the present-day integrative science of human. This is grounded, firstly, on analysis of any scientific finding of aviation medicine in the light of two principles of the contemporary occupational medicine, i.e. human health and reasonable risk (which is an equivalent of safety) and, secondly, systemic study from this angle of all, from molecular to social, levels of the biological integration man of flying.

Team play with a powerful and independent agent: operational experiences and automation surprises on the Airbus A-320

Research and operational experience have shown that one of the major problems with pilot-automation interaction is a lack of mode awareness (i.e., the current and future status and behavior of the automation). As a result, pilots sometimes experience so-called automation surprises when the automation takes an unexpected action or fails to behave as anticipated. A lack of mode awareness and automation surprises can he viewed as symptoms of a mismatch between human and machine properties and capabilities. Changes in automation design can therefore he expected to affect the likelihood and nature of problems encountered by pilots. Previous studies have focused exclusively on early generation "glass cockpit" aircraft that were designed based on a similar automation philosophy. To find out whether similar difficulties with maintaining mode awareness are encountered on more advanced aircraft, a corpus of automation surprises was gathered from pilots of the Airbus A-320, an aircraft characterized by high levels of autonomy, authority, and complexity. To understand the underlying reasons for reported breakdowns in human-automation coordination, we also asked pilots about their monitoring strategies and their experiences with and attitude toward the unique design of flight controls on this aircraft.

High-power graphic computers for visual simulation: a real-time--rendering revolution

Advances in high-end graphics computers in the past decade have made it possible to render visual scenes of incredible complexity and realism in real time. These new capabilities make it possible to manipulate and investigate the interactions of observers with their visual world in ways once only dreamed of. This paper reviews how these developments have affected two preexisting domains of behavioral research (flight simulation and motion perception) and have created a new domain (virtual environment research) which provides tools and challenges for the perceptual psychologist. Finally, the current limitations of these technologies are considered, with an eye toward how perceptual psychologist might shape future developments.