Construction of a novel predictive nomogram for difficult procedure of endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal neoplasms

OBJECTIVES

To determine the predictors of difficult colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and to develop a preoperative predictive model for difficult colorectal ESD procedures.

METHODS

Colorectal neoplasms intended to be resected by ESD in our center between August 2013 and February 2019 were retrospectively enrolled. An ESD procedure which took more than 30 min, failed to remove the lesions en bloc or converted to surgery was defined as difficulty. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to find out the predictors of difficult ESD. A nomogram integrating independent predictors was developed and validated with respect to its discrimination, calibration and clinical application, using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 368 colorectal neoplasms in 355 patients were included. The independent predictors for difficult colorectal ESD were size ≥2 cm (odds ratio [OR] = 6.102, p < .001), positive non-lifting sign (OR = 6.569, p = .005), lesions located in left colon (OR = 2.475, p = .036) or rectum (OR = 2.183, p = .048), laterally spreading tumors (LSTs) (OR = 2.501, p = .008) and less colorectal ESD experience (≤20 cases) (OR = 2.3091, p = .028). The nomogram model incorporating the above predictors performed well in both of the training and validation sets (area under the cure [AUC] = 0.786 and 0.784, respectively). DCA demonstrated the clinical benefit of the nomogram was superior to that of each independent predictor alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram incorporating tumor size, location, morphology, non-lifting sign and ESD experience of operator can be conveniently used to facilitate the preoperative prediction of difficult colorectal ESD.

[Epidemic Characteristics of the Novel Coronavirus Delta Variant in Guangzhou and Grid Crowd Management Based on Public Security Forensic Perspective]

Abstract

Abstract： Objective To analyze the first epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus Delta variant in China based on public security forensic perspective, investigate its transmission characteristics, contributing factors, and epidemiologic research experience, and provide a reference for the prevention and control of the epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus variant. Methods Based on the information that public security forensic experts obtained from front-line epidemiologic research, the gender, age, place of residence, transmission route and infectivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） confirmed cases, asymptomatic infected persons and their close contacts in Guangzhou caused by the novel coronavirus Delta variant were analyzed. The basic reproduction number （R₀） during this epidemic in Guangzhou was calculated. Results Among the 153 cases infected with novel coronavirus Delta variant in the epidemic, 63 cases were male and 90 cases were female, their age ranging from 1 to 92 years, with a median age of 49 years. The main route of transmission was close contact, including dining together, co-living, and close contact in the same residential building. There were 31 cases of family clusters, 25 of which were in Liwan District. The epidemic lasted from May 26 to May 29, and the R₀ remained above 4.0. After May 30, R₀ began to decline and remained below 1.0 from June 7. Conclusion The novel coronavirus Delta variant is highly infectious, the crowd is generally susceptible to infection and family cluster cases are easy to occur. So, it is necessary to precisely prevent and control this strain. Public security forensic experts have both medical literacy and criminal investigation capabilities, they can play a more professional role in epidemic prevention and control.

[Effects of SGLT2i on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes complicating hypertension: a meta-analysis]

Objective: To analyze the effects of different types of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Method: In this meta-analysis, we searched for randomized controlled trials on the effect of SGLT2i on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Three databases, namely PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Library, were searched. The search was organized on the concept of 3 conceptual groups: the first group contained terms used to describe SGLT2i, the second group contained terms related to blood pressure, and the third group contained terms used to describe randomized controlled trials. The search time was from the establishment of the database to December 2020. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were formulated in accordance with the requirements of the Cochrane systematic review. According to whether the heterogeneity of the study was significant or not, a random effect model or a fixed effect model were used to conduct the analysis on the impact of different types of SGLT2i on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and day and night blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Further subgroup analysis was performed to define potential factors, which might lead to clinical heterogeneity. Results: Seven clinical trials were finally included. The result of the meta-analysis showed that compared with placebo group, SGLT2i could reduce the 24-hour dynamic systolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 4.36 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa). Reduction was 4.59, 3.74, 5.06, and 3.64 mmHg by canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, empagliflozin, and ertugliflozin respectively; SGLT2i could reduce the 24-hour dynamic diastolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 2.20 mmHg, and the reduction was 2.30, 1.22, 2.00, and 2.69 mmHg by canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, empagliflozin and ertugliflozin respectively. SGLT2i could reduce the daytime systolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 5.25 mmHg, and reduction was 5.38, 4.87, 6.00, and 4.37 mmHg by canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, empagliflozin and ertugliflozin, respectively. Simultaneously, SGLT2i could reduce the diastolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 2.62 mmHg, and the reduction was 2.56, 2.47, and 2.80 mmHg by canagliflozin, empagliflozin and ertugliflozin, respectively. SGLT2i could reduce the nighttime systolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 3.62 mmHg, and the reduction was 2.09, 2.06, 3.92, and 2.45 mmHg by canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, empagliflozin and ertugliflozin, respectively. At the same time, SGLT2i could reduce the nighttime diastolic blood pressure of patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension by 1.60 and 1.51 mmHg, the reduction was 1.53 and 2.58 mmHg by canagliflozin, empagliflozin and ertugliflozin, respectively. Conclusion: SGLT2i can reduce 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension.

On the power of Chatterjee’s rank correlation

Chatterjee (2021) introduced a simple new rank correlation coefficient that has attracted much attention recently. The coefficient has the unusual appeal that it not only estimates a population quantity first proposed by Dette et al. (2013) that is zero if and only if the underlying pair of random variables is independent, but also is asymptotically normal under independence. This paper compares Chatterjee’s new correlation coefficient with three established rank correlations that also facilitate consistent tests of independence, namely Hoeffding’s $D$, Blum–Kiefer–Rosenblatt’s $R$, and Bergsma–Dassios–Yanagimoto’s $\tau^*$. We compare the computational efficiency of these rank correlation coefficients in light of recent advances, and investigate their power against local rotation and mixture alternatives. Our main results show that Chatterjee’s coefficient is unfortunately rate-suboptimal compared to $D$, $R$ and $\tau^*$. The situation is more subtle for a related earlier estimator of Dette et al. (2013). These results favour $D$, $R$ and $\tau^*$ over Chatterjee’s new correlation coefficient for the purpose of testing independence.

Assessment of vision-related quality of life and depression and anxiety rates in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE

To assess the vision-related quality of life and the depression and anxiety rates in patients with neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration (nAMD).

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of patients with nAMD treated with intravitreal injections was performed. The patients completed two validated questionnaires: the Visual Functioning Questionnaire (VFQ-25, score from 0 to 100), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) questionnaire. Age, gender and visual acuity (VA) in the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) scale was registered.

RESULTS

Fifty-five patients with nAMD participated with a mean age of 80.9 ± 6.6 years-old (range 67-93) and a mean VA in the best eye of 73.5 ± 12.7 letters (range 44-95). The global VFQ-25 mean score was 57.4 ± 21.9 being 38.9 ± 13.2 for the general vision and 42.0 ± 19.5 for the general health. VA in the best eye was associated with the global score of the VFQ-25 scale (R = 0.608; P < .001), but no correlation was observed with general health (P = .936). In the HADS scale, 26.9% and 25.5% of patients had symptoms of depression and anxiety respectively. A negative correlation was found between the HADS and VFQ-25 scales for the general vision score (R = -0.438).

CONCLUSION

This study elucidates the impact of vision impairment and the visual functioning in nAMD, describing an important rate of depression and anxiety symptoms.

Prevalence and risk factors of allergic rhinitis and asthma in the southern edge of the plateau grassland region of northern China: A cross-sectional study

Background

The prevalence rates of allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma in the border region of China may be different from those in the central region of plateau grasslands. A survey was performed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors for AR, asthma, and AR combined with asthma among adults (age ≥ 20 years) residing in the southern border of plateau grasslands in northern China.

Methods

From May to August 2018, a cross-sectional survey was completed by subjects that were selected using a cluster random sampling method. The subjects completed a questionnaire and were administered skin prick tests (SPTs). Risk factors for AR, asthma, and AR combined with asthma were examined by multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results

A total of 1815 adult subjects in the selected region completed study. The prevalence rates of physician-diagnosed AR, asthma, and AR combined with asthma were 13.9% (253), 9.8% (177), and 2.9% (52), respectively. Among the patients with AR, 20.6% were found to have concurrent asthma; among the patients with asthma, 29.4% were found to have concurrent AR. Artemisia and Humulus pollen were the most common sensitizing pollen types. Approximately 70% of subjects with AR and <30% of asthma patients were sensitized to Artemisia and Humulus pollen. Symptoms of AR and asthma mainly appeared during August. A multivariable logistic regression analysis identified sensitization pollen as an independent risk factor for both AR and AR combined with asthma (AR: OR = 16.23, 95% CI: 10.15–25.96; AR combined with asthma: OR = 6.16, 95% CI: 1.28–29.66). An age >40 years old, family history of asthma, moderate-to-severe AR, adverse food reactions, and mold allergies were independent risk factors for AR combined with asthma.

Conclusions

This study identified the prevalence rates of AR and asthma in the southern borders of the plateau grassland in northern China (>1500 m above sea level). Sensitization pollen is an independent risk factor for AR and AR combined with asthma.

POS0817 A NOVEL MODEL TO ASSESS DISEASE ACTIVITY IN TAKAYASU ARTERITIS BASED ON 18F-FDG-PET/CT: A CHINESE COHORT STUDY

Background:

Takayasu arteritis (TA) is a condition characterized by major large-vessel vasculitis (LVV), and is most commonly found in young women (age <40 years) of East Asia countries. 18F-FDG-PET/CT has been widely used in the diagnosis and follow-up of cancers to gather functional information based on metabolic activity. In the present study, we evaluated the value of different parameters in 18F-FDG-PET/CT for assessing active TA disease, and we establish a simple, quantifiable, and effective disease activity evaluation model based on 18F-FDG-PET/CT. A comparison in the ability to identify active disease was performed between the established Kerr score and the new 18F-FDG-PET/CT was also performed.

Objectives:

To investigate the utility of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG-PET/CT) in assessing disease activity in TA.

Methods:

Ninety-one patients with TA, were recruited from a Chinese cohort from October 2017 to January 2019. Clinical data, acute-phase reactants (APRs), and 18F-FDG-PET/CT findings were simultaneously recorded. The Physician Global Assessment was used as the gold standard to assess TA disease activity. The value of using 18F-FDG-PET/CT to identify active disease was evaluated, using erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) as a reference. Disease activity assessment models were constructed and concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were evaluated to compare the benefits of the new modes with ESR and Kerr score.

Results:

In total, 64 (70.3%) cases showed active disease. Higher levels of ESR and CRP, and lower interleukin (IL)-2R levels, were observed in active cases. 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters, including SUVmean, SUVratio1, SUVratio2, sum of SUVmean, and sum of SUVmax, were significantly higher in active disease groups. The C index threshold of ESR to indicate active disease was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.88). The new activity assessment model combining ESR, sum of SUVmean, and IL-2R showed significant improvement in C index over the ESR method (0.96 vs. 0.78, P < 0.01; NRI 1.63, P < 0.01; and IDI 0.48, P < 0.01). The new model also demonstrated modest superiority to Kerr score assessment (0.96 vs. 0.87, P = 0.03; NRI 1.19, P < 0.01; and IDI 0.33 P < 0.01).

Conclusion:

A novel 18F-FDG-PET/CT-based method that involves combining the sum of SUVmean with ESR score and IL-2R levels demonstrated superiority in identifying active TA compared to conventional methods.

References:

[1]Kerr GS, Hallahan CW, Giordano J, Leavitt RY, Fauci AS, Rottem M, et al. Takayasu arteritis. Ann Intern Med 1994;120:919-29.

[2]Hoffman GS, Ahmed AE. Surrogate markers of disease activity in patients with Takayasu arteritis. A preliminary report from The International Network for the Study of the Systemic Vasculitides (INSSYS). Int J Cardiol 1998;66 Suppl 1:S191-4; discussion S195.

[3]Misra R, Danda D, Rajappa SM, Ghosh A, Gupta R, Mahendranath KM, et al. Development and initial validation of the Indian Takayasu Clinical Activity Score (ITAS2010). Rheumatology (Oxford) 2013;52:1795-801.

[4]Bardi M, Diamantopoulos AP. EULAR recommendations for the use of imaging in large vessel vasculitis in clinical practice summary. Radiol Med 2019;124:965-972.

[5]Spick C, Herrmann K, Czernin J. 18F-FDG PET/CT and PET/MRI Perform Equally Well in Cancer: Evidence from Studies on More Than 2,300 Patients. J Nucl Med 2016;57:420-30.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

POS0650 PREDICTORS OF DURABLE CLINICAL RESPONSE TO TOFACITINIB 11 MG ONCE DAILY WITH OR WITHOUT METHOTREXATE IN PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS: POST HOC ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM A PHASE 3b/4 METHOTREXATE WITHDRAWAL STUDY

Background:

ORAL Shift, a global Phase 3b/4 non-inferiority study, demonstrated sustained efficacy and safety of tofacitinib modified-release (MR) 11 mg once daily (QD) following methotrexate (MTX) withdrawal in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who achieved Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) low disease activity (LDA) after treatment with tofacitinib + MTX.1

Objectives:

To assess predictors of durable clinical response in patients receiving tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD in ORAL Shift.

Methods:

ORAL Shift (NCT02831855) enrolled patients aged ≥18 years with moderate to severe RA and an inadequate response to MTX. Patients received open-label tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD + MTX for 24 weeks. Patients achieving LDA (CDAI score ≤10) at Week (W)24 entered the 24-week double-blind MTX withdrawal phase and were randomised 1:1 to receive tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD + placebo (tofacitinib monotherapy; ie blinded MTX withdrawal) or continue tofacitinib + MTX. In this post hoc analysis of randomised patients, we assessed predictors of durable response (maintenance of response from W24–48) per CDAI LDA and remission (CDAI score ≤2.8) criteria. All covariates were initially assessed for significance in a univariate logistic regression. Highly correlated covariates were reviewed to assess which would be removed prior to modelling in a multivariable logistic regression. Remaining significant (p≤0.10) covariates in the univariate regression were selected in the model using a stepwise selection process with p≤0.15 entry and p≤0.05 stay criteria. From the final model, estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented.

Results:

In the double-blind phase of ORAL Shift, durable CDAI LDA and remission rates were: 66.2% and 14.7%, respectively, with tofacitinib + MTX (N=266); and 55.3% and 11.0%, respectively, with tofacitinib + placebo (N=264) (Table 1). In the multivariable analysis, five patient covariates significantly predicted durable CDAI LDA (Figure 1; discussed hereafter). Each unit increase in CDAI score at W24 reduced the likelihood of maintaining CDAI LDA by 22.0%. Each unit increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) at W24 increased the likelihood of maintaining CDAI LDA by 4.0%; this may have been due to imbalanced CRP levels at W24 (randomisation) between treatment groups (Figure 1, footnote c). The odds of durable CDAI LDA were 53.0% lower in the US vs Europe and 61.0% lower in the US vs ‘other’ regions. Each unit increase in baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) score reduced the odds of durable CDAI LDA by 34.0%. Patients receiving tofacitinib + MTX had 66.0% greater odds of durable CDAI LDA vs patients receiving tofacitinib + placebo. CDAI at W24 was the only significant predictor of durable CDAI remission in the multivariable analysis: OR (95% CI) 0.32 (0.24, 0.43); p<0.0001. Each unit increase in CDAI score at W24 reduced the odds of durable CDAI remission by 68.0%.

Table 1.

Durable CDAI LDA and remissiona in patients receiving tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD with MTX or placebo in the double-blind phase of ORAL Shift

Tofacitinib + MTX(N=266)Tofacitinib + placebo(N=264)Durable CDAI LDA, n (%)176 (66.2)146 (55.3)Durable CDAI remission, n (%)39 (14.7)29 (11.0)

aDurable CDAI LDA or remission was defined as achievement of LDA (CDAI score ≤10) or remission (CDAI score ≤2.8), respectively, at W24–48

N, number of patients in each group; n, number of patients achieving outcome

Conclusion:

This post hoc analysis of data from ORAL Shift found that CDAI and CRP at W24, geographic region, baseline HAQ-DI and treatment could be predictors for durable CDAI LDA. As these findings were limited to patients who achieved CDAI LDA at W24 with tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD + MTX, additional data in the general patient population need to be investigated.

References:

[1]Cohen et al. Lancet Rheumatol 2019; 1: E23-34.

Acknowledgements:

Study sponsored by Pfizer Inc. Medical writing support was provided by Sarah Piggott, CMC Connect, and funded by Pfizer Inc.

Disclosure of Interests:

Kunihiro Yamaoka Speakers bureau: Actelion, Astellas, Chugai, Eisai, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Nippon Shinyaku, Pfizer Inc, Takeda, Consultant of: Actelion, Astellas, Chugai, Eisai, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Nippon Shinyaku, Pfizer Inc, Takeda, Stanley B. Cohen Consultant of: AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer Inc, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer Inc, Naonobu Sugiyama Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Harry Shi Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Jose Luis Rivas Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Annette Diehl Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Josef S. Smolen Consultant of: AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Celgene, Celltrion, Chugai, Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences, ILTOO, Janssen, Novartis-Sandoz, Pfizer Inc, Roche, Samsung, Sanofi, Grant/research support from: AbbVie and AstraZeneca

POS0086 ANALYSIS OF DISEASE ACTIVITY MEASURES IN THE CONTEXT OF A METHOTREXATE WITHDRAWAL STUDY AMONG PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS TREATED WITH TOFACITINIB 11 MG ONCE DAILY + METHOTREXATE: POST HOC ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM ORAL SHIFT

Background:

The Phase 3b/4 study ORAL Shift demonstrated sustained efficacy and safety of tofacitinib modified-release (MR) 11 mg once daily (QD) following methotrexate (MTX) withdrawal that was non-inferior to continued tofacitinib + MTX use (per DAS28-4[ESR]), in patients (pts) with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who achieved CDAI-defined low disease activity (LDA) with tofacitinib + MTX at Week (W)24.1

Objectives:

To assess the performance of alternative disease activity measures at W24 (randomisation) and W48 (study endpoint) in ORAL Shift.

Methods:

ORAL Shift (NCT02831855) enrolled pts aged ≥18 years with moderate to severe RA and an inadequate response to MTX. Pts received open-label tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD + MTX for 24 weeks. Achievement of CDAI LDA (≤10) at W24 was set as the criteria for entry to the 24-week double-blind MTX withdrawal phase, with pts randomised 1:1 to receive tofacitinib MR 11 mg QD + placebo (PBO) (ie blinded MTX withdrawal) or continue tofacitinib + MTX. In this post hoc analysis, efficacy analyses were performed in 8 subgroups defined by achievement of various disease activity criteria at W24: DAS28-4(ESR) remission (<2.6) or LDA (≤3.2); DAS28-4(CRP) <2.6 or ≤3.2; RAPID3 remission (≤3) or LDA (≤6); CDAI remission (≤2.8); and SDAI remission (≤3.3). For each subgroup, the proportion of pts who achieved the corresponding disease activity criterion at W48 was calculated, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. The change (Δ) from W24 to W48 in least squares (LS) mean DAS28-4(ESR) and DAS28-4(CRP) was also calculated in each subgroup, with a 95% CI for the difference between treatment groups estimated using a mixed model with repeated measures. Nominal p values were calculated and are presented with no formal statistical hypothesis testing formulated.

Results:

Overall, 694 pts entered the open-label phase of ORAL Shift, and 530 were randomised and received treatment in the double-blind phase; 264 and 266 pts received tofacitinib + PBO and tofacitinib + MTX, respectively (Figure 1a). Considering those pts who were randomised and treated, the proportion of pts achieving each disease activity criterion at W24 varied, but was similar between treatments within each subgroup (Figure 1a). Among pts who met each disease activity criterion at W24, generally the majority of pts in both treatment groups also met the same criterion at W48 (Figure 1b). Numerically more pts receiving tofacitinib + MTX vs tofacitinib + PBO continued to meet the corresponding criterion at W48. Regardless of the disease activity criterion met at W24, differences between treatment groups in LS mean ΔDAS28-4(ESR) (Figure 1c) and ΔDAS28-4(CRP) (data not shown) from W24 to W48 favoured tofacitinib + MTX vs tofacitinib + PBO.

Conclusion:

This post hoc analysis of data from pts randomised and treated in ORAL Shift demonstrated that, regardless of the disease activity state criterion met at W24, generally a majority of pts receiving tofacitinib maintained achievement of the corresponding disease activity criterion at W48, with or without continued MTX. Differences between treatment groups in LS mean ΔDAS28-4(ESR) from W24 to W48, as defined by achievement of LDA or remission with a variety of disease activity measures, were less than a change of 1.2, which is considered to be the threshold for a minimal clinically important improvement.2

References:

[1]Cohen et al. Lancet Rheumatol 2019; 1: E23-34.

[2]Ward et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2015; 74: 1691-1696.

Acknowledgements:

Study sponsored by Pfizer Inc. Medical writing support was provided by Gemma Turner, CMC Connect, and funded by Pfizer Inc.

Disclosure of Interests:

Roy Fleischmann Speakers bureau: Pfizer Inc, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celltrion, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer Inc, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celltrion, Eli Lilly, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer Inc, Samumed, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, VORSO, Boulos Haraoui Speakers bureau: Amgen, Pfizer Inc, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Merck, Pfizer Inc, UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Maya H Buch Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Consultant of: AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Gilead, MSD, Pfizer Inc, Roche, Sanofi, Grant/research support from: Pfizer Inc, Roche, UCB, David Gold Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Gosford Sawyerr Consultant of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Syneos Health Inc, Harry Shi Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Annette Diehl Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Kristen Lee Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc.

Global warming impact to River Basin of Blue Nile and the optimum operation of its multi-reservoir system for hydropower production and irrigation

The water resource of the Blue Nile River basin (BNRB) has been under pressure due to growing demands from many users, and the climate change impact. Potential impact of climate change for the maximum, median and minimum projected changes in the simulated streamflow of BNRB by a hydrologic model, VIC, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, of 4 GCMs (global climate models) downscaled dynamically by a regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) using a one-domain framework that covers the entire NRB for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. These projected changes in streamflow were used to assess its future water allocations using a stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm and a hydro-economic model to optimize hydropower production and irrigated agriculture. Overall, it seems the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir will likely not operate at full storage level because the streamflow of BNRB is assumed to be regulated by three upstream reservoirs. The outflow from the reservoir of GERD or BNRB's annual flow at Khartoum is projected to increase under maximum, but is expected to decrease under minimum and median projected changes in streamflow for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Given the annual net benefit obtained from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the reservoir is projected to increase (decrease) under the maximum (median and minimum) projected changes in streamflow, the potential climate change impact should be considered in designing and developing the future water resources of BNRB.

[Genetics Analysis of patients with Dravet syndrome due to mosaicism variation of paternal SCN1A gene]

Genetic analysis was performed on a family of fraternal twins affected with Dravet syndrome by genetic tests whose parents were normal. To further analyze the cause of the disease, the fraternal twins were subjected to whole exome sequencing (WES), and the family was verified by Sanger sequencing, with the father semen and peripheral blood DNA were further analysed by target sequencing. The WES test identified a heterozygous c.5348C>T (p.Ala1783Val) variant of the SCN1A gene in the fraternal twins, which was predicted to be pathogenic and was detected in the father peripheral blood and semen, but not in the mother. So the mosaicism mutation of paternal SCN1A gene might be the genetic cause of Dravet syndrome in offspring.

Distance to water source in early childhood affects growth: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Approximately 165 million children aged <5 years are at risk of low height-for-age. This study explored whether water quality and distance to water source affected short- and long-term growth, and the critical time windows of such effects.

STUDY DESIGN

This study used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), which was a cohort study performed in 15 Chinese provinces.

METHODS

Data from the CHNS between 1989 and 2011 were examined. Three cohorts of children who were enrolled at 0-2 years of age in 1989, 1993, and 2000 provided sufficient data for this study. Child height was measured by physicians, and household water supply, including the water quality (safe or unsafe) and distance to the source (in-yard or out-yard), was assessed using a questionnaire when the children were 0-2, 4-6, and 11-13 years of age. Multiple regressions were performed to analyse the associations between water quality and distance to the source at various ages, and height at that age and older ages, with and without adjusting for the household water supply at previous ages. Multiple informant models were created using a generalised estimating equation and these were used to assess whether the exposure coefficients were equal across the three age periods.

RESULTS

A total of 1192 children were included. Water quality was not significantly associated with height over the three age periods. An out-yard water source at the age of 0-2 years was not associated with child height at that age, but it was inversely associated with child height at ages 4-6 and 11-13 years (β = -1.605, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.490 to -0.720, and β = -2.817, 95% CI: -4.411 to -1.224, respectively), after adjusting for sociodemographic and economic covariates and baseline child height. Distance to the water source at age 4-6 and 11-13 years was not significantly associated with height. However, significant differences were observed in the associations between distance to water source across the three age periods and height at age 4-6 and 11-13 years (p_int = 0.064 and 0.069, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Distance to the water source in early, but not later, childhood exerted a long-term effect on child height. When the water quality is good, efforts should be made to shorten the distance to the source to improve child health and growth.

Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China

Drought can lead to considerable agricultural, ecological, and societal damage. Improving our understanding of the propagation relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is necessary to lessen drought impacts. The different drought responses and underlying mechanisms among different climate types are not yet sufficiently understood. By applying the standardized precipitation index and standardized runoff index, we investigated the propagation relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought. Because of short-term response between meteorological and hydrological droughts, the propagation time was considered among time scales of 1-12 months. Wavelet analysis was employed to examine the two types of drought from 1902 to 2014. Our results showed that arid environments had a weaker propagation relationship than moist environments. There was a stronger relationship between the two types of drought in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. The climate was not the only factor impacting drought propagation; land (cover and topographic feature) may also impact propagation time and intensity from meteorological to hydrological drought. This study analyzed and highlighted that the most susceptible regions in China and global scale, respectively. The most susceptible regions were tropical and subtropical Chinese southern zones in China and equatorial and warm temperate climate zones in global; however, arid climate zones showed little interaction between the two kinds of drought. Other factors that impact drought propagation, such as land cover, landforms, and human activity, should be considered in future research.

[Consistency of effective orifice area of prosthetic mitral valve estimated using 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional transesophageal echocardiography]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the consistency of effective orifice area (EOA) of prosthetic mitral valve estimated using 2- dimensional (2D) and 3-dimensional (3D) transesophageal echocardiography (TEE).

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted among 34 patients undergoing mitral valve replacement surgery in Nanjing First Hospital between March and June in 2019. The diameter of the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) measured by 2D-TEE was used to calculate the cross sectional area of LVOT (CSALVOT). In 3D-TEE method, LVOT area was measured directly by planimetry on an enface view. The EOAs of the prosthetic mitral valve were calculated for both methods using the continuity equation. Bland-Altman plot consistency test was used to analyze the consistency between the two sets of EOA results, and linear regression analysis was used to analyze their correlation.

OBJECTIVE

The EOA of the prosthetic mitral valve differed significantly between 2D method and 3D method (2.22±0.71 cm² vs 2.35±0.70 cm², P < 0.001) with a mean difference of -0.14±0.20 cm² and 95% coherence boundaries of (-0.53, 0.25 cm²). The regression equation for EOA-3D and EOA-2D is y=0.27 + 0.94x, showing a good correlation between the two methods.

OBJECTIVE

EOA estimation of the prosthetic mitral valve using 2D and 3D TEE has a good consistency, and the results estimated by the 2D method are slightly lower by about 6% than those by the 3D method.

Adrenal metastases: early biphasic contrast-enhanced CT findings with emphasis on differentiation from lipid-poor adrenal adenomas

AIM

To evaluate the accuracy of unenhanced attenuation and early biphasic contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) in differentiating adrenal metastases (AMs) from lipid-poor adrenal adenomas (AAs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 37 patients with 50 AMs and 86 patients with 89 lipid-poor AAs. Quantitative data including the longest diameter (LD), the shortest diameter (SD), LD/SD ratio, CT attenuation values (CTu, CTa, CTv), degree of enhancement (DEAP, DEPP, DEpeak, APW, RPW), and peak enhanced/unenhanced (PE/U) CT attenuation ratio were obtained. Qualitative data including enhancement pattern, location, shape, the presence of calcification or haemorrhage, and intra-lesion necrosis were analysed. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were also calculated.

RESULTS

The PE/U ratio (≤1.25), CTu (≥32.2 HU), DEpeak (≤43.15 HU), DEPP (≤37.65 HU), presence of intralesional necrosis, location (bilateral adrenal glands), and irregular shape were significant variables for differentiating AMs from lipid-poor AAs (p<0.05). Among them, PE/U ratio (≤1.25) was of greater value in differentiating the two adrenal diseases, with sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve (AUC) of 92%, 84%, 0.933, respectively. When at least any three of above criteria were combined, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for diagnosing AMs were 88%, 93%, 88%, and 88%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These seven CT criteria are conducive to differentiate AMs from lipid-poor AAs. Early biphasic contrast-enhanced CT is a high-efficient and practical imaging tool in differentiating them.

Serum Uric Acid Is a Mediator of the Association Between Obesity and Incident Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Obesity has been demonstrated to show a consistent link with the increased possibility of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Since both serum uric acid (SUA) and obesity are essential components of metabolic syndrome (MetS), it is uncertain whether the incidence of NAFLD results from serum uric acid, obesity, or other potential factors based on previous studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study enrolled 16,839 participants with no history of alcohol consumption and no fatty liver disease in 2010. All participants completed a survey which included health and lifestyle questionnaires, and underwent physical examination, ultrasonography, and laboratory examinations of blood samples. After the four-year follow up, 5,104 (30.31%) participants were diagnosed with NAFLD. The associations between SUA, BMI or obesity, and incident NAFLD were assessed by multivariate linear regression, logistic regression analysis, and mediation analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

By adjusting demographic and serum characteristics, linear correlation coefficients between obesity and SUA were 20.26 [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 15.74, 24.77), 13.31 (95% CI: 6.63, 19.99) and 22.21 (95% CI: 16.41, 28.02) in the total population, and in the female and male groups, respectively. The odds ratios were 2.49 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.87) in the total population, 5.71 (95% CI: 2.25, 14.45) in the female group and 1.99 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.45) in the male group for the correlation between obesity and incident NAFLD. The mediation analysis showed that SUA contributed to 10.03%, 0.58%, and 12.54% of obesity-related NAFLD development in the total population, females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings showed mediation linkages of both obesity and SUA with the incident NAFLD. The role of SUA as a mediator constitutes clinical significance that should be recognized and considered.

Association of C-Reactive Protein and Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVES

Motoric cognitive risk syndrome (MCR) is a newly described pre-dementia syndrome characterized by cognitive complaints and slow gait and is associated with numerous adverse outcomes. Previous studies have indicated an association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and cognitive decline, but no clear relationship between CRP and MCR has been reported. The purpose of the study is to examine the associations between CRP with MCR and MCR subtypes.

METHODS

Participants were 5,642 adults aged ≥60 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). MCR was defined as cognitive complaints and slow gait speed without dementia or impaired mobility. Two subtypes of MCR were defined by whether memory impairment (MI) was also present, such as MCR-MI and MCR-non-MI. MI was evaluated through the immediate recall and delayed recall in a word recall test during the CHARLS and was defined as 1.0 standard deviation or more below the mean values of the test scores in this cohort.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 421 (7.46%) met the criteria for MCR. After multivariate adjustment, participants with higher CRP levels had an increased likelihood of MCR (fourth quartile: adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.95) compared with those in the first quartile group. The OR for MCR-MI was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.35-3.09) for the highest quartile of CRP compared to the lowest quartile. No significant associations between CRP levels and odds of MCR-non-MI were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher CRP levels were associated with increased odds of prevalent MCR-MI but not MCR-non-MI among community-dwelling older adults.

Association between cigarette smoking and the susceptibility of acute myeloid leukemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the association between cigarette smoking and the susceptibility of acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched relevant articles from PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane by 1st December, 2018. This meta-analysis included 20 case-control studies, involving 7,538 AML patients and 137,924 healthy controls. Studies reported OR and 95%CI of the correlation between cigarette smoking and AML susceptibility were eligible. Subsequently, the included data were weighted by an inverse variance and analyzed using fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup analysis was conducted based on ethnicities and sources of controls. Heterogeneity test was applied for the included articles. Data analyses were conducted using STATA 12.0.

RESULTS

Current smokers (OR=1.42, 95%CI= 1.28-1.57; p=0.392) and ever-smokers (OR=1.16, 95%CI=1.05-1.28; p=0.036) were associated with AML susceptibility. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, only current smokers (OR=1.45, 95%CI=1.29-1.63; p=0.371) and ever-smokers (OR=1.16, 95%CI=1.03-1.30; p=0.034) of the Caucasian population were associated with AML susceptibility. Stratified analysis based on SOC (source of controls) indicated increased susceptibility of AML in current smokers (OR=1.43, 95%CI=1.26-1.63; p=0.283) and ever-smokers (OR=1.20, 95%CI=1.07-1.35; p=0.078) of the population-based group. Nevertheless, only current smokers in the hospital-based group had increased susceptibility of AML (OR=1.45, 95%CI=1.19-1.76; p=0.198). The risks of AML in ever-smokers (OR=1.04, 95%CI = 0.81-1.35; p=0.054) of the hospital-based group did not remarkably changed.

CONCLUSIONS

In this meta-analysis, we confirmed the association between cigarette smoking and onset risk of AML, especially in the Caucasian population. High-quality, large-scale researches are required to be conducted in multi-center hospitals for verification.

Xiangshao granules can relieve emotional symptoms in menopausal women: a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of Xiangshao granules for treating emotional disorders in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

METHODS

The current investigation was a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial that included 300 perimenopausal and postmenopausal Chinese women aged 40-60 years. Participants received either a placebo (n = 150) or Xiangshao granules (n = 150) for 8 weeks. Outcome measures included Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD) and Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA) scores, which were assessed at baseline, 4 weeks, and 8 weeks. The primary efficacy variables were changes in HAMD and HAMA scores after 8 weeks.

RESULTS

After 8 weeks, the mean HAMD scores decreased from 15.0 to 7.9 in the Xiangshao group and from 16.3 to 10.0 in the placebo group, and the respective mean reductions in HAMA scores were from 16.0 to 8.5 and from 17.1 to 10.9. Clinical improvements in symptoms of both depression and anxiety after 8 weeks differed significantly in the two groups (p < 0.05). The cure rate was significantly higher in the Xiangshao group. There were no significant differences in the rates of adverse events in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Xiangshao granules can relieve symptoms of depression and anxiety significantly and safely.

MiRNA-621 inhibits the malignant progression of non-small cell lung cancer via targeting SIX4

OBJECTIVE

To clarify the role of microRNA-621 (miRNA-621)/SIX4 axis in regulating the malignant progression of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and the potential mechanism.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

MiRNA-621 expression in NSCLC tissues and paracancerous tissues (n=50) was examined by quantitative Real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). We further analyzed the correlation between miRNA-621 expression and pathological indexes of NSCLC patients. By transfection of miRNA-621 mimics, its expression was upregulated. Regulatory effects of miRNA-621 on proliferation and apoptosis of H1299 and SPC-A1 cells were evaluated by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8), 5-Ethynyl-2'- deoxyuridine (EdU) assay and flow cytometry, respectively. Finally, the potential mechanism of miRNA-621 in regulating target gene SIX4 was explored by Western blot and rescue experiments.

RESULTS

MiRNA-621 was lowly expressed in NSCLC tissues relative to paracancerous tissues. NSCLC patients with low-level miRNA-621 were expected to have a worse clinical grade and shorter overall survival compared with those with a high level. Transfection of miRNA-621 mimics in H1299 and SPC-A1 cells markedly suppressed proliferation, but induced apoptosis. SIX4 was found to be highly expressed in NSCLC and negatively regulated by miRNA-621. MiRNA-621 overexpression could downregulate protein levels of SIX4, CD31, Ki-67, c-Myc, MMP-2 and MMP-9 in H1299 and SPC-A1 cells. Overexpression of SIX4 partially reversed the role of miRNA-621 in the malignant progression of NSCLC.

CONCLUSIONS

MiRNA-621 is closely related to pathological grade and poor prognosis of NSCLC. Besides, miRNA-621 can inhibit the malignant progression of NSCLC by regulating SIX4 expression.

[Correlation between Toxoplasma gondii infection and spontaneous abortion in pregnant women: a case-control study]

OBJECTIVE

To examine the correlation between Toxoplasma gondii infection and spontaneous abortion among pregnant women, so as to provide the evidence for the developmentofpreventivemeasuresforspontaneousabortion.

METHODS

A total of 228 serum samples collected from women with spontaneous abortion for the first time from January 2018 to December 2019 were selected as the case group, while 228 serum samples collected from pregnant women with a normal delivery and without a history of abortion during the same period were selected as the control group. The serum IgG and IgM antibodies against T. gondii were detected and compared in both groups, and the correlation between T. gondii infection and spontaneous abortion was evaluated.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences between the case and control groups in terms of age, education levels, occupation, residency and proportion of keeping cats (all P values > 0.05). The positive rate of anti-T. gondii IgM antibody was significantly higher in the case group than in the control group (adjusted χ² = 4.08, P < 0.05; OR = 8.25), while no significant difference was seen between the case and control groups (χ² = 0.42, P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute maternal T. gondii infection may remarkably increase the chance of spontaneous abortion. Progestational health education regarding toxoplasmosis prevention and control knowledge and detection of T. gondii infection during pregnancy should be strengthened.

[Expression and significance of PD-1 and PD-L1 in the specimens of epithelial ovarian cancer]

Objective: To examine the expression of programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) and its ligand (PD-L1) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) tissues, and investigate the correlation among their expression, clinicopathological features and prognosis. Methods: The specimens of 180 patients with EOC treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University from October 2002 to December 2013 were confirmed by pathological examination. The pathological tissue specimens of subtypes ，included 120 cases of serous carcinoma, 30 cases of mucinous carcinoma, 20 cases of endometrioid carcinoma, and 20 cases of clear cell carcinoma. The normal paracancerous tissues of 50 cases randomly selected from the 180 patients as control group. Immunohistochemical SP method was used to detect the expressions of both PD-1 and PD-L1 in epithelial ovarian cancer tissues, and the relationships among their expressions,the clinicopathological parameters and prognosis were respectively analyzed. Results: （1） PD-1 was expressed in lymphocytes infiltrated in EOC tissues, and PD-L1 was expressed in the cell membranes of cancer tissues. In all EOC cases, 33 cases (18.3%, 33/180) of both PD-1 and PD-L1 were highly expressed, and only 1 (2.0%, 1/50) of control group showed high expression. There was statistically significant difference between two groups (P<0.01). (2) Among the four subtypes tissue specimens of EOC, the high expression rate of PD-1 was 25.0% (30/120) for serous carcinoma, 3/15 for endometrioid carcinoma, 0 (0/30) for mucinous carcinoma, and 0 (0/15) for clear cell carcinoma. The high expression rate of PD-L1 was 23.3% (28/120) for serous carcinoma, 3.3% (1/30) for mucinous carcinoma, 2/15 for endometrioid carcinoma, and 2/15 for clear cell carcinoma. Both PD-1 and PD-L1 expressions in the four sub-types of tissue specimens were significantly different (P<0.05). The high expression rate of both PD-1 and PD-L1 was 9.2% (8/87) in the early stage and 26.9% (25/93) in the late stage. There was a statistically significant difference between the two groups (P<0.01). Similarly, the expression of both PD-1 and PD-L1 were significantly higher in the cases of high-grade EOC （type Ⅱ） than those of low-grade （type Ⅰ） and in the cases of EOC distributed bilaterally than that distributed unilaterally, and there were statistically significant differences (P<0.05). (3) The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the survival time were respectively 35 and 36 months in the cases with high expressions of both PD-1 and PD-L1, and the survival time were the same as 61 months in the cases with low expression of both PD-1 and PD-L1, and the comparison was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: The expression levels of PD-1 and PD-L1 in EOC tissues are higher than those in adjacent tissues, especially in serous carcinomas. The expression of both PD-1 and PD-L1 is higher in specimens of the patients with advanced stages. The results showed that the high expression of both PD-1 and PD-L1 is an indicator of poor prognosis of patients suffering from EOC.

Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018

In Europe, three widespread extreme summer drought and heat (DH) events have occurred in 2003, 2010 and 2018. These events were comparable in magnitude but varied in their geographical distribution and biomes affected. In this study, we perform a comparative analysis of the impact of the DH events on ecosystem CO₂ fluxes over Europe based on an ensemble of 11 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and the observation-based FLUXCOM product. We find that all DH events were associated with decreases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP), but the gross summer flux anomalies differ between DGVMs and FLUXCOM. At the annual scale, FLUXCOM and DGVMs indicate close to neutral or above-average land CO₂ uptake in DH2003 and DH2018, due to increased productivity in spring and reduced respiration in autumn and winter compensating for less photosynthetic uptake in summer. Most DGVMs estimate lower gross primary production (GPP) sensitivity to soil moisture during extreme summers than FLUXCOM. Finally, we show that the different impacts of the DH events at continental-scale GPP are in part related to differences in vegetation composition of the regions affected and to regional compensating or offsetting effects from climate anomalies beyond the DH centres. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

Dielectric approximation media to reproduce dispersion for field transformation

Field transformation is complementary to transformation optics as it converts polarization without reflection for any incidence, despite not being impedance-matched to vacuum. However, to ease manufacture, a dielectric approximation may degrade the transmission performance due to the approximate dispersion relation for the exact reciprocal medium. In this paper, we instead propose a different dielectric equivalent medium to guarantee the exact dispersion. We also discuss the birefringence phenomenon in such dielectric media, and their unavoidable induced reflections.

SAT0139 AGE-BASED (<65 VS ≥65 YEARS) INCIDENCE OF INFECTIONS AND SERIOUS INFECTIONS IN TOFACITINIB-, ADALIMUMAB- AND PLACEBO-TREATED PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS: A POST HOC ANALYSIS OF PHASE 2, PHASE 3 AND PHASE 3B/4 TOFACITINIB STUDIES

Background:

Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A recent ad hoc safety analysis (as of August 2019; may be subject to change) from an ongoing, open-label, randomised, post-authorisation safety study, Study A3921133 (NCT02092467), conducted in RA patients (pts) aged ≥50 years with ≥1 cardiovascular risk factor has shown that incidence rates (IRs) of serious infection events (SIEs) were higher with tofacitinib 10 mg BID vs tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi; adalimumab [ADA] and etanercept) and this difference was more pronounced in pts aged ≥65 years (Pfizer Inc; data on file).

Objectives:

To assess the IRs of overall infection events and SIEs in pts from Phase (P)2, P3 and P3b/4 tofacitinib RA trials which had a TNFi (ADA) active control or comparator arm.

Methods:

This is a post hoc analysis of Month 0–12 data pooled from P2 (A3921035;NCT00550446[first 12-week randomised parallel treatment period only]), P3 (ORAL Standard;NCT00853385) and P3b/4 (ORAL Strategy;NCT02187055) studies. Pts randomised to receive tofacitinib 5 mg BID, tofacitinib 10 mg BID, ADA 40 mg subcutaneously every other week and placebo (PBO) were included and assessed overall and by age (<65 or ≥65 years). SIEs were defined as infections requiring hospitalisation or parenteral antimicrobial therapy, or meeting other criteria for a serious adverse event. IRs (pts with events/100 pt-years of exposure [PY]) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for all infection events and SIEs; only the first infection events that occurred up to 28 days after the last dose or to the data cut-off date were considered.

Results:

Of 2180 pts included in the pooled studies (tofacitinib 5 mg BID: N=1064 [943.4 PY]; tofacitinib 10 mg BID: N=306 [236.6 PY]; ADA: N=643 [554.3 PY]; PBO: N=167 [108.1 PY]), 1841 (84.4%) were aged <65 years and 339 (15.6%) were aged ≥65 years. In general, the IRs for all infection events and SIEs were higher with tofacitinib 5 mg BID, tofacitinib 10 mg BID and ADA in pts aged ≥65 years compared with pts aged <65 years. Overall and when stratified by age, IRs for all infection events were similar across the active treatment groups (Figure 1); IRs with PBO were lower vs the active treatment groups overall and in pts aged <65 years, and numerically lower vs the active treatment groups in pts aged ≥65 years. IRs for SIEs were comparable across active treatment groups in pts aged <65 years, while among pts aged ≥65 years, IRs were numerically higher for tofacitinib 10 mg BID vs ADA, and appeared to be similar for tofacitinib 5 mg BID and ADA (Figure 2).

Conclusion:

In this analysis of data pooled from P2, P3 and P3b/4 tofacitinib RA studies which included a TNFi arm (ADA), the risk of SIEs or infections overall was similar for tofacitinib and ADA with the exception of a numerically higher rate of SIEs with tofacitinib 10 mg BID vs ADA in pts aged ≥65 years. In most countries, tofacitinib 10 mg BID is not an approved dose for the treatment of RA. This post hoc comparison is limited by variation in sample size and PY of exposure between treatment and age groups, and a small number of cases of SIEs in the ≥65-year age group resulting in wide 95% CIs; interpretation of results should be made with caution. The findings in the present analysis are consistent with increasing age being a known risk factor for infections.

Acknowledgments:

Study sponsored by Pfizer Inc. Medical writing support was provided by Christina Viegelmann of CMC Connect and funded by Pfizer Inc.

Disclosure of Interests: :

Kevin Winthrop Grant/research support from: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Consultant of: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, GSK, Pfizer Inc, Roche, UCB, David Gold Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Dan Henrohn Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Lisy Wang Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Andrea Shapiro Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Harry Shi Shareholder of: Pfizer Inc, Employee of: Pfizer Inc, Gustavo Citera Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Gema, Genzyme, Novartis and Pfizer Inc, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Gema, Genzyme, Novartis and Pfizer Inc, Hendrik Schulze-Koops Grant/research support from: Pfizer Inc