Long-term aircraft noise exposure and risk of hypertension in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Studies of the association between aircraft noise and hypertension are complicated by inadequate control for potential confounders and a lack of longitudinal assessments, and existing evidence is inconclusive.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the association between long-term aircraft noise exposure and risk of hypertension among post-menopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trials, an ongoing prospective U.S.

COHORT

METHODS

Day-night average (DNL) and night equivalent sound levels (Lnight) were modeled for 90 U.S. airports from 1995 to 2010 in 5-year intervals using the Aviation Environmental Design Tool and linked to participant geocoded addresses from 1993 to 2010. Participants with modeled exposures ≥45 A-weighted decibels (dB [A]) were considered exposed, and those outside of 45 dB(A) who also did not live in close proximity to unmodeled airports were considered unexposed. Hypertension was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg or inventoried/self-reported antihypertensive medication use. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident hypertension when exposed to DNL or Lnight ≥45 versus <45 dB(A), controlling for sociodemographic, behavioral, and environmental/contextual factors.

RESULTS/DISCUSSION

There were 18,783 participants with non-missing DNL exposure and 14,443 with non-missing Lnight exposure at risk of hypertension. In adjusted models, DNL and Lnight ≥45 db(A) were associated with HRs of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93, 1.08) and 1.06 (95%CI: 0.91, 1.24), respectively. There was no evidence supporting a positive exposure-response relationship, and findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. Indications of elevated risk were seen among certain subgroups, such as those living in areas with lower population density (HRinteraction: 0.84; 95%CI: 0.72, 0.98) or nitrogen dioxide concentrations (HRinteraction: 0.82; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.95), which may indicate lower ambient/road traffic noise. Our findings do not suggest a relationship between aircraft noise and incident hypertension among older women in the U.S., though associations in lower ambient noise settings merit further investigation.

Assessment of facility-level antiretroviral treatment patient status utilizing a national-level laboratory cohort: Toward an understanding of system-level tracking and clinic switching in South Africa

Background

Most estimates of HIV retention are derived at the clinic level through antiretroviral (ART) patient management systems, which capture ART clinic visit data, yet these cannot account for silent transfers across HIV treatment sites. Patient laboratory monitoring visits may also be observed in routinely collected laboratory data, which include ART monitoring tests such as CD4 count and HIV viral load, key to our work here.

Methods

In this analysis, we utilized the NHLS National HIV Cohort (a system-wide viewpoint) to investigate the accuracy of facility-level estimates of retention in care for adult patients accessing care (defined using clinic visit data on patients under ART recorded in an electronic patient management system) at Themba Lethu Clinic (TLC). Furthermore, we describe patterns of facility switching among all patients and those patients classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU) at the facility level.

Results

Of the 43,538 unique patients in the TLC dataset, we included 20,093 of 25,514 possible patient records (78.8%) in our analysis that were linked with the NHLS National Cohort, and we restricted the analytic sample to patients initiating ART between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017. Most (60%) patients were female, and the median age (IQR) at ART initiation was 37 (31-45) years. We found the laboratory records augmented retention estimates by a median of 860 additional active records (about 8% of all median active records across all years) from the facility viewpoint; this augmentation was more noticeable from the system-wide viewpoint, which added evidence of activity of about one-third of total active records in 2017. In 2017, we found 7.0% misclassification at the facility-level viewpoint, a gap which is potentially solvable through data integration/triangulation. We observed 1,134/20,093 (5.6%) silent transfers; these were noticeably more female and younger than the entire dataset. We also report the most common locations for clinic switching at a provincial level.

Discussion

Integration of multiple data sources has the potential to reduce the misclassification of patients as being lost to care and help understand situations where clinic switching is common. This may help in prioritizing interventions that would assist patients moving between clinics and hopefully contribute to services that normalize formal transfers and fewer silent transfers.

Increased all-cause mortality following occupational injury: a comparison of two states

OBJECTIVES

To measure the impact of lost-time occupational injuries on all-cause mortality in Washington State and, using the same data elements and study design, to determine whether the estimated impact was similar to previous estimates for New Mexico.

METHODS

We linked injuries in the Washington workers' compensation system with Social Security Administration data on earnings and mortality. We estimated Cox survival models of mortality for women and men with lost-time compared with medical-only injuries, adjusting for age, pre-injury earnings and industry. We used quantitative bias analysis to account for confounding by pre-injury smoking and obesity.

RESULTS

The estimated mortality HR was 1.24 for women (95% CI 1.21 to 1.28) and 1.22 for men (95% CI 1.20 to 1.24). After adjusting for unmeasured pre-injury smoking and obesity, the estimated HR for women was 1.10, 95% simulation interval (SI) 1.00 to 1.21; for men, it was 1.15, 95% SI 1.04 to 1.27.

CONCLUSIONS

All-cause mortality for Washington workers with lost-time injuries was higher than for those with medical-only injuries. Estimated HRs for Washington were consistent with those previously estimated for New Mexico, a less populous state with lower median wages and a different workers' compensation insurance mechanism. This suggests that the relationship between workplace injury and long-term mortality may be generalisable to other US states. These findings support greater efforts to enhance safety and to investigate factors that improve postinjury employment opportunities and long-term health. This association should be examined in additional locations, with different study conditions, or using additional data on pre-injury risk factors.

Causal and Associational Language in Observational Health Research: A Systematic Evaluation

We estimated the degree to which language used in the high-profile medical/public health/epidemiology literature implied causality using language linking exposures to outcomes and action recommendations; examined disconnects between language and recommendations; identified the most common linking phrases; and estimated how strongly linking phrases imply causality. We searched for and screened 1,170 articles from 18 high-profile journals (65 per journal) published from 2010-2019. Based on written framing and systematic guidance, 3 reviewers rated the degree of causality implied in abstracts and full text for exposure/outcome linking language and action recommendations. Reviewers rated the causal implication of exposure/outcome linking language as none (no causal implication) in 13.8%, weak in 34.2%, moderate in 33.2%, and strong in 18.7% of abstracts. The implied causality of action recommendations was higher than the implied causality of linking sentences for 44.5% or commensurate for 40.3% of articles. The most common linking word in abstracts was "associate" (45.7%). Reviewers' ratings of linking word roots were highly heterogeneous; over half of reviewers rated "association" as having at least some causal implication. This research undercuts the assumption that avoiding "causal" words leads to clarity of interpretation in medical research.

A Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology

In this paper, we propose a framework for thinking through the design and conduct of descriptive epidemiologic studies. A well-defined descriptive question aims to quantify and characterize some feature of the health of a population and must clearly state: 1) the target population, characterized by person and place, and anchored in time; 2) the outcome, event, or health state or characteristic; and 3) the measure of occurrence that will be used to summarize the outcome (e.g., incidence, prevalence, average time to event, etc.). Additionally, 4) any auxiliary variables will be prespecified and their roles as stratification factors (to characterize the outcome distribution) or nuisance variables (to be standardized over) will be stated. We illustrate application of this framework to describe the prevalence of viral suppression on December 31, 2019, among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who had been linked to HIV care in the United States. Application of this framework highlights biases that may arise from missing data, especially 1) differences between the target population and the analytical sample; 2) measurement error; 3) competing events, late entries, loss to follow-up, and inappropriate interpretation of the chosen measure of outcome occurrence; and 4) inappropriate adjustment.

Cohort profile: the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort

PURPOSE

South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort was established in 2015 to facilitate monitoring, evaluation and research on South Africa's National HIV Treatment Programme. In South Africa, 84.8% of people living with HIV know their HIV status; 70.7% who know their status are on ART; and 87.4% on ART are virologically suppressed.

PARTICIPANTS

The NHLS National HIV Cohort includes the laboratory data of nearly all patients receiving HIV care in the public sector since April 2004. Patients are included in the cohort if they have received a CD4 count or HIV RNA viral load (VL) test. Using an anonymised unique patient identifier that we have developed and validated to linked test results, we observe patients prospectively through their laboratory results as they receive HIV care and treatment. Patients in HIV care are seen for laboratory monitoring every 6-12 months. Data collected include age, sex, facility location and test results for CD4 counts, VLs and laboratory tests used to screen for potential treatment complications.

FINDINGS TO DATE

From April 2004 to April 2018, 63 million CD4 count and VL tests were conducted at 5483 facilities. 12.6 million unique patients had at least one CD4 count or VL, indicating they had accessed HIV care, and 7.1 million patients had a VL test indicating they had started antiretroviral therapy. The creation of NHLS National HIV Cohort has enabled longitudinal research on all lab-monitored patients in South Africa's national HIV programme, including analyses of (1) patient health at presentation; (2) care outcomes such as 'CD4 recovery', 'retention in care' and 'viral resuppression'; (3) patterns of transfer and re-entry into care; (4) facility-level variation in care outcomes; and (5) impacts of policies and guideline changes.

FUTURE PLANS

Continuous updating of the cohort, integration with available clinical data, and expansion to include tuberculosis and other lab-monitored comorbidities.

Adolescent retention in HIV care within differentiated service-delivery models in sub-Saharan Africa

Adolescents and young people living with HIV are at risk of disengaging from HIV care at all stages of the care cascade. Differentiated models of care offer simplified HIV-service delivery options in the hope of improving treatment outcomes, including retention on antiretroviral therapy. However, it remains unclear how successful and widespread these models are for adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, where the burden of HIV is the greatest. Very few differentiated models of care specifically targeted to adolescents can be found and this priority group are currently ineligible from several models that exist. Where differentiated care has been made available to adolescents, data on the implementation and effectiveness of these interventions remain scarce. Despite this scarcity of evidence on the effectiveness of differentiated care among adolescent populations, several interventions, particularly community-based groups with peer navigators or supporters, might have potential to increase the reach, effectiveness, and adoption of differentiated care in adolescent HIV-care programmes.

Relationship Between Level of American Football Playing and Diagnosis of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy in a Selection Bias Analysis

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease associated with exposure to repetitive head impacts such as those from American football. Our understanding of this association is based on research in autopsied brains, since CTE can only be diagnosed postmortem. Such studies are susceptible to selection bias, which needs to be accounted for to ensure a generalizable estimate of the association between repetitive head impacts and CTE. We evaluated the relationship between level of American football playing and CTE diagnosis after adjusting for selection bias. The sample included 290 deceased male former American football players who donated their brains to the Veterans Affairs-Boston University-Concussion Legacy Foundation (VA-BU-CLF) Brain Bank between 2008 and 2019. After adjustment for selection bias, college-level and professional football players had 2.38 (95% simulation interval (SI): 1.16, 5.94) and 2.47 (95% SI: 1.46, 4.79) times the risk of being diagnosed with CTE as high-school-level players, respectively; these estimates are larger than estimates with no selection bias adjustment. Since CTE is currently diagnosed only postmortem, we additionally provide plausible scenarios for CTE risk ratios for each level of play during the former players' lifetime. This study provides further evidence to support a dose-response relationship between American football playing and CTE.

Misconceptions About the Direction of Bias From Nondifferential Misclassification

Measurement error is pervasive in epidemiologic research. Epidemiologists often assume that mismeasurement of study variables is nondifferential with respect to other analytical variables and then rely on the heuristic that "nondifferential misclassification will bias estimates towards the null." However, there are many exceptions to the heuristic for which bias towards the null cannot be assumed. In this paper, we compile and characterize 7 exceptions to this rule and encourage analysts to take a more critical and nuanced approach to evaluating and discussing bias from nondifferential mismeasurement.

Illustrating How to Simulate Data From Directed Acyclic Graphs to Understand Epidemiologic Concepts

Simulation methods are a powerful set of tools that can allow researchers to better characterize phenomena from the real world. As such, the ability to simulate data represents a critical set of skills that epidemiologists should use to better understand epidemiologic concepts and ensure that they have the tools to continue to self-teach even when their formal instruction ends. Simulation methods are not always taught in epidemiology methods courses, whereas causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) often are. Therefore, this paper details an approach to building simulations from DAGs and provides examples and code for learning to perform simulations. We recommend using very simple DAGs to learn the procedures and code necessary to set up a simulation that builds on key concepts frequently of interest to epidemiologists (e.g., mediation, confounding bias, M bias). We believe that following this approach will allow epidemiologists to gain confidence with a critical skill set that may in turn have a positive impact on how they conduct future epidemiologic studies.

One Pill, Once a Day: Simplified Treatment Regimens and Retention in HIV Care

Simplified drug regimens may improve retention in care for persons with chronic diseases. In April 2013, South Africa adopted a once-daily single-pill human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment regimen as the standard of care, replacing a multiple-pill regimen. Because the regimens had similar biological efficacy, the shift to single-pill therapy offered a real-world test of the impact of simplified drug-delivery mechanisms on patient behavior. Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we assessed retention in care among patients starting HIV treatment just before and just after the guideline change. The study included 4,484 patients starting treatment at a large public sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. The share of patients prescribed a single-pill regimen increased by over 40 percentage points between March and April 2013. Initiating treatment after the policy change was associated with 11.7-percentage-points' higher retention at 12 months (95% confidence interval: -2.2, 29.4). Findings were robust to different measures of retention, different bandwidths, and different statistical models. Patients starting treatment early in HIV infection-a key population in the test-and-treat era-experienced the greatest improvements in retention from single-pill regimens.

The Expert Next Door: Interactions With Friends and Family During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic thrust the field of public health into the spotlight. For many epidemiologists, biostatisticians, and other public health professionals, this caused the professional aspects of our lives to collide with the personal, as friends and family reached out with concerns and questions. Learning how to navigate this space was new for many and required refining our communication depending on context, setting, and audience. Some of us took to social media, utilizing our existing personal accounts to share information after sorting through and summarizing the rapidly emerging literature to keep loved ones safe. However, those in our lives sometimes asked unanswerable questions, or began distancing themselves when we suggested more stringent guidance than they hoped, causing additional stress during an already traumatic time. We often had to remind ourselves that we are also individuals experiencing this pandemic, and that our time-intensive efforts were meaningful, relevant, and impactful. As this pandemic and other public health crises continue, we encourage our discipline to consider how we can best use shared lessons from this period, and recognize that our professional knowledge, when used in our personal lives, can promote, protect, and bolster confidence in public health.

Minimally Invasive Esophagectomy Is Associated with Superior Survival Compared to Open Surgery

INTRODUCTION

Minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE) has not been associated with a long-term survival advantage compared to open esophagectomy (OE). We investigated survival differences between MIE, including laparoscopic and robotic, and OE.

METHODS

Patients undergoing esophagectomy from 2010 to 2014 with T_1-4N_0-3M₀, adenocarcinoma or squamous cell histology, in middle or lower esophagus were queried from the National Cancer Database and stratified into groups based on their surgical procedure: robotic, laparoscopic, or OE. Propensity matching (1:1) was done between robotic and laparoscopic to produce an MIE group. The MIE group was matched to OE yielding a 1:1:2 matching of robotic:laparoscopic:OE. Postoperative outcomes and survival (Kaplan-Meier) were compared between groups.

RESULTS

Prior to matching, 7,163 patients met inclusion criteria and a greater portion underwent OE (67.7%) than MIE (laparoscopic 24.9% and robotic 7.4%). Matching yielded similar groups (robotic = 527, laparoscopic = 527, and OE =1054). Compared to OE, MIE patients had a significantly greater number of nodes sampled and trended toward increased R0 resections (96.1% vs 94.3%, P = .053). OE was associated with a longer median postoperative stay (10 vs 9 days, P = .001). Mortality at 30 and 90 days was similar. However, postoperative survival for MIE was significantly greater than OE (P < .001). No survival difference existed between robotic and laparoscopic (P = .723).

CONCLUSIONS

MIE is associated with increased number of nodes examined and a shorter postoperative length of stay. After propensity matching, patients undergoing MIE had better long but not short-term survival than OE. This benefit seems to be independent of the use of robotic technology.

On the Need to Revitalize Descriptive Epidemiology

Nearly every introductory epidemiology course begins with a focus on person, place, and time, the key components of descriptive epidemiology. And yet in our experience, introductory epidemiology courses were the last time we spent any significant amount of training time focused on descriptive epidemiology. This gave us the impression that descriptive epidemiology does not suffer from bias and is less impactful than causal epidemiology. Descriptive epidemiology may also suffer from a lack of prestige in academia and may be more difficult to fund. We believe this does a disservice to the field and slows progress towards goals of improving population health and ensuring equity in health. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak and subsequent coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic have highlighted the importance of descriptive epidemiology in responding to serious public health crises. In this commentary, we make the case for renewed focus on the importance of descriptive epidemiology in the epidemiology curriculum using SARS-CoV-2 as a motivating example. The framework for error we use in etiological research can be applied in descriptive research to focus on both systematic and random error. We use the current pandemic to illustrate differences between causal and descriptive epidemiology and areas where descriptive epidemiology can have an important impact.

The confounder matrix: A tool to assess confounding bias in systematic reviews of observational studies of etiology

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential for drawing conclusions regarding etiologic associations between exposures or interventions and health outcomes. Observational studies comprise a substantive source of the evidence base. One major threat to their validity is residual confounding, which may occur when component studies adjust for different sets of confounders, fail to control for important confounders, or have classification errors resulting in only partial control of measured confounders. We present the confounder matrix-an approach for defining and summarizing adequate confounding control in systematic reviews of observational studies and incorporating this assessment into meta-analyses. First, an expert group reaches consensus regarding the core confounders that should be controlled and the best available method for their measurement. Second, a matrix graphically depicts how each component study accounted for each confounder. Third, the assessment of control adequacy informs quantitative synthesis. We illustrate the approach with studies of the association between short interpregnancy intervals and preterm birth. Our findings suggest that uncontrolled confounding, notably by reproductive history and sociodemographics, resulted in exaggerated estimates. Moreover, no studies adequately controlled for all core confounders, so we suspect residual confounding is present, even among studies with better control. The confounder matrix serves as an extension of previously published methodological guidance for observational research synthesis, enabling transparent reporting of confounding control and directly informing meta-analysis so that conclusions are drawn from the best available evidence. Widespread application could raise awareness about gaps across a body of work and allow for more valid inference with respect to confounder control.

Validation of Self-reported Opioid Agonist Treatment Among People Who Inject Drugs Using Prescription Dispensation Records

BACKGROUND

Studies of people who inject drugs (PWID) commonly use questionnaires to determine whether participants are currently, or have recently been, on opioid agonist treatment for opioid use disorder. However, these previously unvalidated self-reported treatment measures may be susceptible to inaccurate reporting.

METHODS

We linked baseline questionnaire data from 521 PWID in the Ontario integrated Supervised Injection Services cohort in Toronto (November 2018-March 2020) with record-level health administrative data. We assessed the validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value [PPV and NPV]) of self-reported recent (in the past 6 months) and current (as of interview) opioid agonist treatment with methadone or buprenorphine-naloxone relative to prescription dispensation records from a provincial narcotics monitoring system, considered the reference standard.

RESULTS

For self-reported recent opioid agonist treatment, sensitivity was 78% (95% CI = 72, 83), specificity was 90% (95% CI = 86, 94), PPV was 90% (95% CI = 85, 93), and NPV was 79% (95% CI = 74, 84). For self-reported current opioid agonist treatment, sensitivity was 84% (95% CI = 78, 90), specificity was 87% (95% CI = 83, 91), PPV was 74% (95% CI = 67, 81), and NPV was 93% (95% CI = 89, 95).

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported opioid agonist treatment measures were fairly accurate among PWID, with some exceptions. Inaccurate recall due to a lengthy lookback window may explain underreporting of recent treatment, whereas social desirability bias may have led to overreporting of current treatment. These validation data could be used in future studies of PWID to adjust for misclassification in similar self-reported treatment measures.

Potential for Selection Bias in Studies of the Association of Hormonal Contraception and Chronic Vulvar Pain

Background: Hormonal contraceptive use is common among reproductive-aged women, but research evaluating its etiological relationship to vulvodynia remains mixed. We sought to evaluate this association and examine the potential for bias due to care-seeking behavior. Materials and Methods: We conducted a case-control study of women recruited from a large health care network database from 2008 to 2011. Of 26,455 eligible respondents, 1168 met the case definition for chronic vulvar pain (CVP). We matched each case to three controls by age and used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for prior hormonal contraception (HC) use and CVP, stratifying cases by whether or not they sought care for their vulvar pain. We also simulated the influence of potential biases due to care seeking, using parameters based on this dataset. Results: HC users had higher odds of CVP (adjusted OR = 2.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2-3.2). Effect estimates were stronger when cases were restricted to care seekers (adjusted OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 2.2-3.7). Effect estimates decreased slightly as time increased between HC initiation and pain onset. Our simulations suggested that effect estimates may be spuriously strengthened when cases are restricted to care-seeking women, but controls are recruited from the general population. Conclusions: Our results suggest an association between antecedent HC use and CVP that is potentially spuriously strengthened in case-control studies when cases are restricted to care seekers but controls are not.

Virologic non-suppression and early loss to follow up among pregnant and non-pregnant adolescents aged 15-19 years initiating antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction

Older adolescents aged 15–19 years continue to have high rates of loss to follow up (LTFU), and high rates of virologic non‐suppression (VNS) compared to younger adolescents and adults. Adolescent females are at risk of pregnancy, which puts those living with HIV at a dual vulnerability. Our study assessed the factors associated with VNS and LTFU in older adolescents (including pregnant females) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa.

Methods

We included adolescents aged 15–19 years initiating ART between 2004 and 2019, with ≥ one viral load (VL) measurement between 4 and 24.5 months, and ≥ 6 months follow‐up, from six South African cohorts of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS‐Southern Africa (IeDEA‐SA). We defined VNS as VL ≥400 copies/ml and LTFU as not being in care for ≥180 days from ART start and not known as transferred out of the clinic or dead in the first 24 months on ART. We examined factors associated with VNS and LTFU using Fine&Gray competing risk models.

Results

We included a total of 2733 adolescents, 415 (15.2%) males, median (IQR) age at ART start of 18.6 (17.3, 19.4) years. Among females, 585/2318 (25.2%) were pregnant. Over the 24‐month follow‐up, 424 (15.5%) of all adolescents experienced VNS: range (11.1% pregnant females and 20.5% males). Over half of all adolescents were LTFU before any other event could occur. The hazard of VNS reduced with increasing age and CD4 count above 200 cells/μl at ART initiation among all adolescents having adjusted for all measured patient characteristics [adjusted sub‐distribution hazard ratio (aSHR) 19 vs. 15 years: 0.50 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.68), aSHR: >500 vs. ≤200 cells/μl: 0.22 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.31)]. The effect of CD4 count persisted in pregnant females. Increasing age and CD4 count >200 cells/μl were risk factors for LTFU among all adolescents.

Conclusions

Older adolescents had a high risk of LTFU shortly after ART start and a low risk of VNS, especially those initiating treatment during pregnancy. Interventions addressing adherence and retention should be incorporated into adolescent‐friendly services to prevent VNS and LTFU and endeavour to trace lost adolescents as soon as they are identified.