The impact of integration on outpatient chemotherapy use and spending in Medicare

Hospital-physician integration has substantially grown in the United States for the past decade, particularly in certain medical specialties, such as oncology. Yet evidence is scarce on the relation between integration and outpatient specialty care use and spending. We analyzed the impact of oncologist integration on outpatient provider-administered chemotherapy use and spending in Medicare, where prices do not depend on providers' integration status or negotiating power. We addressed oncologists' selective integration and patients' nonrandom choice of oncologists using an instrumental variables method. We found that integrated oncologists reduced the quantity of outpatient chemotherapy drugs but used more expensive treatments. This led to an increase in chemotherapy-drug spending after integration. These findings suggest that changes in treatment patterns-treatment mix and quantity-may be an important mechanism by which integration increases spending. We also found that integration increased spending on chemotherapy administration (the act of injection). This is because integration shifted billing of chemotherapy to hospital outpatient departments, where Medicare payments for chemotherapy administration are higher than those in physician offices. As integration increases, efforts should continue to assess how integration influences patient care and explore policy options to ensure desirable outcomes from integration.

Design and effects of outcome-based payment models in healthcare: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Outcome-based payment models (OBPMs) might solve the shortcomings of fee-for-service or diagnostic-related group (DRG) models using financial incentives based on outcome indicators of the provided care. This review provides an analysis of the characteristics and effectiveness of OBPMs, to determine which models lead to favourable effects.

METHODS

We first developed a definition for OBPMs. Next, we searched four data sources to identify the models: (1) scientific literature databases; (2) websites of relevant governmental and scientific agencies; (3) the reference lists of included articles; (4) experts in the field. We only selected studies that examined the impact of the payment model on quality and/or costs. A narrative evidence synthesis was used to link specific design features to effects on quality of care or healthcare costs.

RESULTS

We included 88 articles, describing 12 OBPMs. We identified two groups of models based on differences in design features: narrow OBPMs (financial incentives based on quality indicators) and broad OBPMs (combination of global budgets, risk sharing, and financial incentives based on quality indicators). Most (5 out of 9) of the narrow OBPMs showed positive effects on quality; the others had mixed (2) or negative (2) effects. The effects of narrow OBPMs on healthcare utilization or costs, however, were unfavourable (3) or unknown (6). All broad OBPMs (3) showed positive effects on quality of care, while reducing healthcare cost growth.

DISCUSSION

Although strong empirical evidence on the effects of OBPMs on healthcare quality, utilization, and costs is limited, our findings suggest that broad OBPMs may be preferred over narrow OBPMs.

Comparison of medication adherence between type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who pay for their medications and those who receive it free: a rural Asian experience

BACKGROUND

Treatment plans fail if patients have poor medication adherence. Our aim was to compare medication adherence, reasons for non-adherence, and satisfaction with community support among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who pay for their medications and those who receive it free.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka, among patients who were on oral anti-diabetic drugs for at least 3 months. They were grouped into two: universal-free group and fee-paying group. Three different scales were used to score medication adherence, reasons for non-adherence, and satisfaction with community support. Fisher's exact test was performed to determine if there was a significant difference between the two groups (p < 0.05) concerning medication adherence and satisfaction with community support.

RESULTS

The median (IQR) medication adherence scores for fee-paying group and universal-free group were 3 (2-3) and 3 (3-3), respectively; the median (IQR) scores for satisfaction with community support were 5 (2-6) and 4 (4-6), respectively. Both the adherence and the satisfaction failed to show a significant difference between the two groups. Forgetfulness, being away from home, complex drug regime, and willingness to avoid side effects were common reasons of non-adherence for both the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in medication adherence between the universal-free group and fee-paying group, despite of having a significantly different income. The universal-free health service would be a probable reason.

The Prevalence and Cost of Medicare Beneficiaries Diagnosed and At Risk for Opioid Abuse, Dependence, and Poisoning

BACKGROUND

Reliance on prescription opioids to manage pain has been associated with increases in diversion, overdose, and addiction. Prevalence of misuse and abuse has been shown to be higher among government-insured populations than commercially insured populations. However, the prevalence and costs of misuse/abuse among the Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) population has not been studied.

OBJECTIVES

To (a) determine the prevalence and costs of prescription opioid misuse/abuse and (b) evaluate the prevalence and costs associated with those identified as at risk for opioid misuse/abuse in Medicare FFS beneficiaries.

METHODS

This retrospective case-control study used Medicare claims data for the calendar years of 2010 and 2011 and included Medicare beneficiaries aged at least 18 years. The index date was the date of first diagnosed misuse/abuse or at risk for abuse and had to occur between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2011, and beneficiaries had to have at least 6 months continuous eligibility before and after the index date. Matching (1:1) was used for comparing opioid misusers/abusers with nonabuser controls, as well as comparing patients at risk for opioid abuse with controls not at risk for abuse. Controls were matched to cases by gender, age, disability, and geographic region. The index date of the control patient was set equal to the index date of the matched case.

RESULTS

Prevalence of misuse/abuse in the Medicare FFS population was 13.1 per 1,000 persons, with the majority among patients receiving Medicare based on disability (76.2%). The prevalence of at risk for misuse/abuse was 117.4 per 1,000 persons. Approximately half of the Medicare FFS patients used an opioid. Overall total annual unadjusted mean costs of health care resources were significantly greater for abusers than for matched controls ($46,194 vs. $21,964; P < 0.0001), with a mean annual excess cost of $24,230. The overall total adjusted 6-month post-index mean costs of health care resources for abusers was significantly greater than that of matched controls ($33,942 vs. $10,754; P < 0.0001), with a mean excess cost of $23,188.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diagnosed abuse among Medicare FFS population (13.1 per 1,000 persons) was higher than other payer groups studied using similar ICD-9-CM codes, and the majority of abuse was among those receiving Medicare based on disability (76.2%). The prevalence of at-risk abuse was 9 times higher than the prevalence of diagnosed abuse. As with other studies, health care resource utilization and costs were significantly greater for diagnosed abuse than matched controls.

DISCLOSURES

This study was sponsored by Pfizer. Roland is a Pfizer employee and stockholder and was involved in all aspects of the study as part of a mid-career fellowship in pharmacoeconomics with the University of Utah. Ye and Stevens are employees of University of Utah, and Oderda was an employee of University of Utah, which received financial support from Pfizer in connection with the development of this manuscript. Oderda also reports consulting fees from Pfizer, Trevena, and Pacira, unrelated to this study. The results of this study were presented at the Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy Nexus 2015; October 26-29, 2015; Orlando, FL, and the AMCP Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy Annual Meeting 2016; April 19-22, 2016; San Francisco, CA.

Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States (2015-2060) in adults aged ≥65 years

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cause a high burden of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Age, race, and ethnicity are important risk factors for ADRD.

METHODS

We estimated the future US burden of ADRD by age, sex, and race and ethnicity by applying subgroup-specific prevalence among Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years in 2014 to subgroup-specific population estimates for 2014 and population projection data from the United States Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060.

RESULTS

The burden of ADRD in 2014 was an estimated 5.0 million adults aged ≥65 years or 1.6% of the population, and there are significant disparities in ADRD prevalence among population subgroups defined by race and ethnicity. ADRD burden will double to 3.3% by 2060 when 13.9 million Americans are projected to have the disease.

DISCUSSION

These estimates can be used to guide planning and interventions related to caring for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers.

Fee-for-Service Medicare-Enrolled Elderly Veterans Are Increasingly Voting with Their Feet to Use More VA and Less Medicare, 2003-2014

OBJECTIVE

To examine the long-term reliance on outpatient care at the population (i.e., system) level among fee-for-service Medicare-enrolled elderly veterans in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system and Medicare from 2003 to 2014.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

We analyzed a 5 percent random sample, stratified by facility, age, gender, and race, of Medicare-enrolled veterans enrolled in a VA primary care panel using VA administrative data and Medicare claims.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a repeated cross-sectional analysis over 48 quarters. VA reliance was defined at the system level as the proportion of total visits (VA + Medicare) that occurred in VA. We examined four visit types and seven high-volume medical subspecialties. We applied direct standardization adjusting for age, gender, and race using the 2010 population distribution of Medicare-enrolled veterans.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Over the 12-year period, VA provided the vast majority of mental health care. Conversely, veterans received slightly more than half of their primary care and most of their specialty care, surgical care, and seven high-volume medical subspecialties through Medicare. However, reliance on VA outpatient care steadily increased over time for all categories of care.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the controversies about VA access to care, Medicare-enrolled veterans, who have a choice of using VA or Medicare providers, appear to increase their use of VA care prior to the Choice Act.

Geographic Variation in Cystoscopy Rates for Suspected Bladder Cancer between Female and Male Medicare Beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE

To assess geographic variation in cystoscopy rates among women vs men with suspected bladder cancer, lending insight into gender-specific differences in cystoscopic evaluation.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries within 306 Hospital Referral Regions (HRRs) who received care in 2014. For each HRR, we calculated the age- and race-adjusted cystoscopy rate for women and men as our primary outcome. The rate was the number of beneficiaries who underwent cystoscopy for bladder cancer symptoms (using procedure and ICD-9 diagnosis codes) divided by all beneficiaries in the HRR. We used the coefficient of variation to compare relative variability of cystoscopy rates.

RESULTS

Overall, 173,551 women (n = 14.8 million) and 286,090 men (n = 11.5 million) underwent cystoscopy in 2014. While women received less cystoscopies compared to men (mean 11.0 vs 23.5 per 1000, P < .001), there was greater variation in cystoscopy rates among women (coefficient of variation 27.5 vs 23.5, P = .010). When restricting to ICD-9 codes for hematuria only, women continued to demonstrate greater variation in cystoscopy rates (coefficient of variation 27.8 vs 24.2, P = .022). Findings were robust across larger HRR sizes-thereby removing some random variation seen in smaller HRRs-as well as across years 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

CONCLUSION

Cystoscopy rates are lower in women than men, likely due to their lower bladder cancer incidence. However, there is greater variation in cystoscopy rates among women with symptoms of bladder cancer. This may reflect increased provider uncertainty whether to refer and work-up women with suspected bladder cancer.

Effects of a community-based care management model for super-utilizers

OBJECTIVES

Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial plans have all explored ways to improve outcomes for patients with high costs and complex medical and social needs. The purpose of this study was to test the effectiveness of a high-intensity care management program that the Rutgers University Center for State Health Policy (CSHP) implemented as an adaptation of a promising model developed by the Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers.

STUDY DESIGN

We estimated the impact of the program on 6 utilization and spending outcomes for a subgroup of beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service (n = 149) and a matched comparison group (n = 1130).

METHODS

We used Medicare claims for all analyses. We used propensity score matching to construct a comparison group of beneficiaries with baseline characteristics similar to those of program participants. We employed regression models to test the relationship between program enrollment and outcomes over a 12-month period while controlling for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

A test of joint significance across all outcomes showed that the CSHP program reduced service use and spending in aggregate (P = .012), although estimates for most of the individual measures were not statistically significant. Participants had 37% fewer unplanned readmissions (P = .086) than did comparison beneficiaries. Although we did not find statistically significant results for the other 5 outcomes, the CIs for these outcomes spanned substantively large effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these findings are mixed, they suggest that adaptations of the Camden model hold promise for reducing short-term service use and spending for Medicare super-utilizers.

The impact of the 2008/2009 financial crisis on specialist physician activity in Canada

Fee-for-service physicians are responsible for planning for their retirements, and there is no mandated retirement age. Changes in financial markets may influence how long they remain in practice and how much they choose to work. The 2008 crisis provides a natural experiment to analyze elasticity in physician service supply in response to dramatic financial market changes. We examined quarterly fee-for-service data for specialist physicians over the period from 1999/2000 to 2013/2014 in Canada. We used segmented regression to estimate changes in the number of physicians receiving payments, per-physician service counts, and per-physician payments following the 2008 financial crisis and explored whether patterns differed by physician age. The number of specialist physicians increased more rapidly in the period since 2008 than in earlier years, but increases were largest within the youngest age group, and we observed no evidence of delayed retirement among older physicians. Where changes in service volume and payments were observed, they occurred across all ages and not immediately following the 2008 financial crisis. We conclude that any response to the financial crisis was small compared with demographic shifts in the physician population and changes in payments per service over the same time period.

Differences Between Skilled Nursing Facilities in Risk of Subsequent Long-Term Care Placement

OBJECTIVES

To determine how the risk of subsequent long-term care (LTC) placement varies between skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and the SNF characteristics associated with this risk.

DESIGN

Population-based national cohort study with participants nested in SNFs and hospitals in a cross-classified multilevel model.

SETTING

SNFs (N=6,680).

PARTICIPANTS

Fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (N=552,414) discharged from a hospital to a SNF in 2013.

MEASUREMENTS

Participant characteristics from Medicare data and the Minimum Data Set. SNF characteristics from Medicare and Nursing Home Compare. Outcome was a stay of 90 days or longer in a LTC nursing home within 6 months of SNF admission.

RESULTS

Within 6 months of SNF admission, 10.4% of participants resided in LTC. After adjustments for participant characteristics, the SNF where a participant received care explained 7.9% of the variance in risk of LTC, whereas the prior hospital explained 1.0%. Individuals in SNFs with excellent quality ratings had 22% lower odds of transitioning to LTC than those in SNFs with poor ratings (odds ratio=0.78, 95% confidence interval=0.74-0.84). Variation between SNFs and associations with quality markers were greater in sensitivity analyses limited to individuals least likely to require LTC. Results were essentially the same in a number of other sensitivity analyses designed to reduce potential confounding.

CONCLUSION

Risk of subsequent LTC placement, an important and negatively viewed outcome for older adults, varies substantially between SNFs. Individuals in higher-quality SNFs are at lower risk.

Association between physician US News & World Report medical school ranking and patient outcomes and costs of care: observational study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the US News & World Report (USNWR) ranking of the medical school a physician attended is associated with patient outcomes and healthcare spending.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Medicare, 2011-15.

PARTICIPANTS

20% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older (n=996 212), who were admitted as an emergency to hospital with a medical condition and treated by general internists.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Association between the USNWR ranking of the medical school a physician attended and the physician's patient outcomes (30 day mortality and 30 day readmission rates) and Medicare Part B spending, adjusted for patient and physician characteristics and hospital fixed effects (which effectively compared physicians practicing within the same hospital). A sensitivity analysis employed a natural experiment by focusing on patients treated by hospitalists, because patients are plausibly randomly assigned to hospitalists based on their specific work schedules. Alternative rankings of medical schools based on social mission score or National Institute of Health (NIH) funding were also investigated.

RESULTS

996 212 admissions treated by 30 322 physicians were examined for the analysis of mortality. When using USNWR primary care rankings, physicians who graduated from higher ranked schools had slightly lower 30 day readmission rates (adjusted rate 15.7% for top 10 schools v 16.1% for schools ranked ≥50; adjusted risk difference 0.4%, 95% confidence interval 0.1% to 0.8%; P for trend=0.005) and lower spending (adjusted Part B spending $1029 (£790; €881) v $1066; adjusted difference $36, 95% confidence interval $20 to $52; P for trend <0.001) compared with graduates of lower ranked schools, but no difference in 30 day mortality. When using USNWR research rankings, physicians graduating from higher ranked schools had slightly lower healthcare spending than graduates from lower ranked schools, but no differences in patient mortality or readmissions. A sensitivity analysis restricted to patients treated by hospitalists yielded similar findings. Little or no relation was found between alternative rankings (based on social mission score or NIH funding) and patient outcomes or costs of care.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, little or no relation was found between the USNWR ranking of the medical school from which a physician graduated and subsequent patient mortality or readmission rates. Physicians who graduated from highly ranked medical schools had slightly lower spending than graduates of lower ranked schools.

Association of the Overall Well-being of a Population With Health Care Spending for People 65 Years of Age or Older

IMPORTANCE

New US health care payment models have increasingly incentivized health care systems to promote health and reduce health care spending at the population level, with Medicare beneficiaries representing one of the largest populations affected by new payment models. Identifying novel strategies to promote health and reduce health care spending is necessary.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the overall well-being of a population is associated with health care spending for people 65 years of age or older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This US national, population-based cross-sectional study examined the association between county well-being and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) spending. Population well-being, a holistic assessment of the overall health of the population comprising interrelated domains, including physical, mental, and social health, as measured by the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index (2010), was linked to the mean spending per Medicare FFS beneficiary (2010) and county characteristics data for all US counties assessed. The data were adjusted for prevalence of 4 low-variation conditions (hip fracture, stroke, colorectal cancer, and acute myocardial infarction) and regional penetration of Medicare Advantage. Data analyses were conducted October 13, 2016, to October 31, 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mean spending per Medicare FFS beneficiary per county.

RESULTS

In total, 2998 counties were assessed using county-level mean values, with 4 to 7317 participants (mean [SD] number of participants, 755 [1220]) per county. The mean (SD) values of the demographic characteristics of the participants were 50.8% (1.3%) female, 74.9% (16.5%) white, 12.1% (13.0%) black, 4.0% (5.3%) Asian, and 13.7% (14.8%) Hispanic with a mean (SD) of the median county age of 38.2 (4.4) years. Medicare spent a mean (SE) of $992 ($110) less per Medicare FFS beneficiary in counties in the highest quintile of well-being compared with counties in the lowest well-being quintile. This inverse association persisted after accounting for key population characteristics such as median household income and contextual factors such as urbanicity and health care system capacity. Medicare spent a mean (SE) of $1233 ($104) less per Medicare FFS beneficiary in counties with the greatest access to basic needs than in those with the lowest access.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this US national study, the overall well-being of a geographically defined population was inversely associated with its health care spending for people 65 years and older. Identifying this association between well-being and health care spending at the population level may help to lay the foundation for further study to first illuminate the mechanisms underlying the association and to second study interventions aimed at creating greater well-being and lower health care spending at the population level.

Association of Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities With Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction, Heart Failure, and Pneumonia: An Analysis of Within- and Between-Hospital Variation

Importance

Although studies have described differences in hospital outcomes by patient race and socioeconomic status, it is not clear whether such disparities are driven by hospitals themselves or by broader systemic effects.

Objective

To determine patterns of racial and socioeconomic disparities in outcomes within and between hospitals for patients with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective cohort study initiated before February 2013, with additional analyses conducted during the peer-review process. Hospitals in the United States treating at least 25 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older in each race (ie, black and white) and neighborhood income level (ie, higher income and lower income) for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia between 2009 and 2011 were included.

Main Outcomes and Measures

For within-hospital analyses, risk-standardized mortality rates and risk-standardized readmission rates for race and neighborhood income subgroups were calculated at each hospital. The corresponding ratios using intraclass correlation coefficients were then compared. For between-hospital analyses, risk-standardized rates were assessed according to hospitals' proportion of patients in each subgroup. These analyses were performed for each of the 12 analysis cohorts reflecting the unique combinations of outcomes (mortality and readmission), demographics (race and neighborhood income), and conditions (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia).

Results

Between 74% (3545 of 4810) and 91% (4136 of 4554) of US hospitals lacked sufficient racial and socioeconomic diversity to be included in this analysis, with the number of hospitals eligible for analysis varying among cohorts. The 12 analysis cohorts ranged in size from 418 to 1265 hospitals and from 144 417 to 703 324 patients. Within included hospitals, risk-standardized mortality rates tended to be lower among black patients (mean [SD] difference between risk-standardized mortality rates in black patients compared with white patients for acute myocardial infarction, -0.57 [1.1] [P = .47]; for heart failure, -4.7 [1.3] [P < .001]; and for pneumonia, -1.0 [2.0] [P = .05]). However, risk-standardized readmission rates among black patients were higher (mean [SD] difference between risk-standardized readmission rates in black patients compared with white patients for acute myocardial infarction, 4.3 [1.4] [P < .001]; for heart failure, 2.8 [1.8] [P < .001], and for pneumonia, 3.7 [1.3] [P < .001]). Intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.68 to 0.79, indicating that hospitals generally delivered consistent quality to patients of differing races. While the coefficients in the neighborhood income analysis were slightly lower (0.46-0.60), indicating some heterogeneity in within-hospital performance, differences in mortality rates and readmission rates between the 2 neighborhood income groups were small. There were no strong, consistent associations between risk-standardized outcomes for white or higher-income neighborhood patients and hospitals' proportion of black or lower-income neighborhood patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

Hospital performance according to race and socioeconomic status was generally consistent within and between hospitals, even as there were overall differences in outcomes by race and neighborhood income. This finding indicates that disparities are likely to be systemic, rather than localized to particular hospitals.

Effects of episode-based payment on health care spending and utilization: Evidence from perinatal care in Arkansas

We study how physicians respond to financial incentives imposed by episode-based payment (EBP), which encourages lower spending and improved quality for an entire episode of care. Specifically, we study the impact of the Arkansas Health Care Payment Improvement Initiative, a multi-payer program that requires providers to enter into EBP arrangements for perinatal care, covering the majority of births in the state. Unlike fee-for-service reimbursement, EBP holds physicians responsible for all care within a discrete episode, rewarding physicians for efficient use of their own services and for efficient management of other health care inputs. In a difference-in-differences analysis of commercial claims, we find that perinatal spending in Arkansas decreased by 3.8% overall under EBP, compared to surrounding states. The decrease was driven by reduced spending on non-physician health care inputs, specifically the prices paid for inpatient facility care. We additionally find a limited improvement in quality of care under EBP.

Evaluation of the Present-on-Admission Indicator among Hospitalized Fee-for-Service Medicare Patients with a Pressure Ulcer Diagnosis: Coding Patterns and Impact on Hospital-Acquired Pressure Ulcer Rates

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate national present-on-admission (POA) reporting for hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs) and examine the impact of quality measure exclusion criteria on HAPU rates.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

Medicare inpatient, outpatient, and nursing facility data as well as independent provider claims (2010-2011).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We evaluated acute inpatient hospital admissions among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries in 2011. Admissions were categorized as follows: (1) no pressure ulcer diagnosis, (2) new pressure ulcer diagnosis, and (3) previously documented pressure ulcer diagnosis. HAPU rates were calculated by varying patient exclusion criteria.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Among admissions with a pressure ulcer diagnosis, we observed a large discrepancy in the proportion of admissions with a HAPU based on hospital-reported POA data (5.2 percent) and the proportion with a new pressure ulcer diagnosis based on patient history in billing claims (49.7 percent). Applying quality measure exclusion criteria resulted in removal of 91.2 percent of admissions with a pressure injury diagnosis from HAPU rate calculations.

CONCLUSIONS

As payers and health care organizations expand the use of quality measures, it is important to consider how the measures are implemented, coding revisions to improve measure validity, and the impact of patient exclusion criteria on provider performance evaluation.

Forgotten patients: ACO attribution omits those with low service use and the dying

OBJECTIVES

Alternative payment models, such as accountable care organizations, hold provider groups accountable for an assigned patient population, but little is known about unassigned patients. We compared clinical and utilization profiles of patients attributable to a provider group with those of patients not attributable to any provider group.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of 2012 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 21 years and older.

METHODS

We applied the Medicare Shared Savings Program attribution approach to assign beneficiaries to 2 mutually exclusive categories: attributable or unattributable. We compared attributable and unattributable beneficiaries according to demographics, dual eligibility for Medicaid, nursing home residency, clinical comorbidities, annual service utilization, annual spending, and 1- and 2-year mortality. We estimated multivariate regression models describing correlates of attribution status.

RESULTS

Most beneficiaries (88%) were attributable to a provider group. The remaining 12% were unattributable. Beneficiaries unattributable to any provider group were more likely to be younger, male, and from a minority group; to have disability as the basis for enrollment; and to live in high-poverty areas. Unattributable beneficiaries included 3 distinct subgroups: nonusers of care, decedents, and those with healthcare service use but no qualifying evaluation and management visits. Many unattributable Medicare beneficiaries had minimal use of healthcare services, with the exception of a small subgroup of beneficiaries who died within the attribution year.

CONCLUSIONS

Attribution approaches that more fully capture unattributable patients with low service use and patients near the end of life should be considered to reward population health efforts and improve end-of-life care.

Comparing post-acute rehabilitation use, length of stay, and outcomes experienced by Medicare fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries with hip fracture in the United States: A secondary analysis of administrative data

BACKGROUND

Medicare Advantage (MA) and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) plans have different financial incentives. Medicare pays predetermined rates per beneficiary to MA plans for providing care throughout the year, while providers serving FFS patients are reimbursed per utilization event. It is unknown how these incentives affect post-acute care in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). The objective of this study was to examine differences in rehabilitation service use, length of stay, and outcomes for patients following hip fracture between FFS and MA enrollees.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This was a retrospective cohort study to examine differences in health service utilization and outcomes between FFS and MA patients in SNFs following hip fracture hospitalization during the period January 1, 2011, to June 30, 2015, and followed up until December 31, 2015. We linked the Master Beneficiary Summary File, Medicare Provider and Analysis Review data, Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set data, the Minimum Data Set, and the American Community Survey. The 6 primary outcomes of interest in this study included 2 process measures and 4 patient-centered outcomes. Process measures included length of stay in the SNF and average rehabilitation therapy minutes (physical and occupational therapy) received per day. Patient-centered outcomes included 30-day hospital readmission, changes in functional status as measured by the 28-point late loss MDS-ADL scale, likelihood of becoming a long-term resident, and successful discharge to the community. Successful discharge from a SNF was defined as being discharged to the community within 100 days of SNF admission and remaining alive in the community without being institutionalized in any acute or post-acute setting for at least 30 days. We analyzed 211,296 FFS and 75,554 MA patients with hip fracture admitted directly to a SNF following an index hospitalization who had not been in a nursing facility or hospital in the preceding year. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and nursing facility fixed effects regression models to compare treatments and outcomes between MA and FFS patients. MA patients were younger and less cognitively impaired upon SNF admission than FFS patients. After applying IPTW, demographic and clinical characteristics of MA patients were comparable with those of FFS patients. After adjusting for risk factors using IPTW-weighted fixed effects regression models, MA patients spent 5.1 (95% CI -5.4 to -4.8) fewer days in the SNF and received 463 (95% CI to -483.2 to -442.4) fewer minutes of total rehabilitation therapy during the first 40 days following SNF admission, i.e., 12.1 (95% CI -12.7 to -11.4) fewer minutes of rehabilitation therapy per day compared to FFS patients. In addition, MA patients had a 1.2 percentage point (95% CI -1.5 to -1.1) lower 30-day readmission rate, 0.6 percentage point (95% CI -0.8 to -0.3) lower rate of becoming a long-stay resident, and a 3.2 percentage point (95% CI 2.7 to 3.7) higher rate of successful discharge to the community compared to FFS patients. The major limitation of this study was that we only adjusted for observed differences to address selection bias between FFS and MA patients with hip fracture. Therefore, results may not be generalizable to other conditions requiring extensive rehabilitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to FFS patients, MA patients had a shorter course of rehabilitation but were more likely to be discharged to the community successfully and were less likely to experience a 30-day hospital readmission. Longer lengths of stay may not translate into better outcomes in the case of hip fracture patients in SNFs.

Outpatient Visits Before Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Hospitalization of Children Receiving Medicaid

OBJECTIVES

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC) are measured to indicate health care system quality, with the premise that fewer hospitalizations would occur with better preceding outpatient care. Our objectives were to identify outpatient care received in the 7 days preceding acute pediatric hospitalizations and to compare receipt of outpatient care by hospitalization type (ACSC vs non-ACSC).

METHODS

This retrospective observational study used a 10-state database of Medicaid claims to identify outpatient visits within 7 days before acute unplanned hospitalization for children aged 0 to 17 years. We used logistic regression to assess the relationship between hospitalization type and occurrence of a preceding outpatient clinic visit, controlling for patient age, race/ethnicity, type of Medicaid, and complex chronic conditions.

RESULTS

Of 254,902 hospitalizations, 28.6% had a preceding outpatient visit. Thirty-five percent of hospitalizations were for ACSC. A greater percentage of ACSC versus non-ACSC hospitalizations had a preceding outpatient visit (31.1% vs 27.3%, P < .001). In multivariable analysis, characteristics associated with a preceding outpatient visit were age <1 versus 13 to 17 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-2.5), ≥2 vs 0 complex chronic conditions (aOR 1.9; 95% CI 1.8-2.0), Medicaid managed care versus fee for service (aOR 1.2; 95% CI 1.2-1.3), and ACSC versus non-ACSC hospitalization (aOR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Although receipt of outpatient care was modestly higher in children hospitalized with an ACSC, most hospitalized children did not receive preceding outpatient care. Further investigation is needed to assess why such a large proportion of children do not receive outpatient care before acute unplanned hospitalization, especially for ACSC.

Optimal compensation rule under provider adverse selection and moral hazard

Although healthcare provider payments have been studied extensively in the literature, little is known about the optimal compensation rule when, in addition to unobservable provider effort (moral hazard), the provider's ability type is also private information (adverse selection). We find that when only provider effort is unobservable, to induce the first-best outcome the optimal compensation rule requires zero fee-for-service. When both provider moral hazard and adverse selection exist, the first-best outcome will be infeasible. The second-best compensation rule entails combined use of capitation, fee-for-service, and pay-for-performance.

Changes in Health Care Use Associated With the Introduction of Hospital Global Budgets in Maryland

Importance

In 2014, the State of Maryland placed the majority of its hospitals under all-payer global budgets for inpatient, hospital outpatient, and emergency department care. Goals of the program included reducing unnecessary hospital utilization and encouraging greater use of primary care.

Objective

To compare changes in hospital and primary care use through the first 2 years of Maryland's hospital global budget program among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in Maryland vs matched control areas.

Design, Setting, and Participants

We matched 8 Maryland counties (94 967 beneficiaries) with hospitals in the program to 27 non-Maryland control counties (206 389 beneficiaries). Using difference-in-differences analysis, we compared changes in hospital and primary care use in Maryland vs the control counties from before (2009-2013) to after (2014-2015) the payment change, using 2 different assumptions. First, we assumed that preintervention differences between Maryland and the control counties would have remained constant past 2014 had Maryland not implemented global budgets (parallel trend assumption). Second, we assumed that differences in preintervention trends would have continued without the payment change (differential trend assumption).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hospital stays (defined as admissions and observation stays); return hospital stays within 30 days of a prior hospital stay; emergency department visits that did not result in admission; price-standardized hospital outpatient department (HOPD) utilization; and visits with primary care physicians (overall and within 7 days of a hospital stay).

Results

We matched 8 Maryland counties with hospitals in the program (94 967 beneficiaries; 41.8% male; mean [SD] age, 72.3 [12.2] years) to 27 non-Maryland control counties (206 389 beneficiaries; 42.8% male; mean [SD] age, 71.7 [12.5] years). Assuming parallel trends, we estimated a differential change in Maryland of -0.47 annual hospital stays per 100 beneficiaries (95% CI, -1.65 to 0.72; P = .43) from the preintervention period (2009-2013) to 2015, but assuming differential trends, we estimated a differential change in Maryland of -1.24 stays per 100 beneficiaries (95% CI, -2.46 to -0.02; P = .047). Assuming parallel trends, we found a significant increase in primary care visits (+10.6 annual visits/100 beneficiaries; 95% CI, 4.6 to 16.6 annual visits/100 beneficiaries; P = .001), but assuming differential trends, we found no change (-0.8 visits/100 beneficiaries; 95% CI, -10.6 to 9.0 visits/100 beneficiaries; P = .87). Comparing estimates with both trend assumptions, we found no consistent changes in emergency department visits, return hospital stays, HOPD use, or posthospitalization primary care visits associated with Maryland's program.

Conclusions and Relevance

We did not find consistent evidence that Maryland's hospital global budget program was associated with reductions in hospital use or increases in primary care visits among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries after 2 years. Evaluations over longer periods should be pursued.

Low-Value Service Use in Provider Organizations

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether provider organizations exhibit distinct profiles of low-value service provision.

DATA SOURCES

2007-2011 Medicare fee-for-service claims and enrollment data.

STUDY DESIGN

Use of 31 services that provide minimal clinical benefit was measured for 4,039,733 beneficiaries served by 3,137 provider organizations. Variation across organizations, persistence within organizations over time, and correlations in use of different types of low-value services within organizations were estimated via multilevel modeling, with adjustment for beneficiary sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Organizations provided 45.6 low-value services per 100 beneficiaries on average, with considerable variation across organizations (90th/10th percentile ratio, 1.78; 95 percent CI, 1.72-1.84), including substantial between-organization variation within hospital referral regions (90th/10th percentile ratio, 1.66; 95 percent CI, 1.60-1.71). Low-value service use within organizations was highly correlated over time (r, 0.98; 95 percent CI, 0.97-0.99) and positively correlated between 13 of 15 pairs of service categories (average r, 0.26; 95 percent CI, 0.24-0.28), with the greatest correlation between low-value imaging and low-value cardiovascular testing and procedures (r, 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of low-value services in provider organizations exhibited substantial variation, high persistence, and modest consistency across service types. These findings are consistent with organizations shaping the practice patterns of affiliated physicians.

Diffusion of Bevacizumab Across Oncology Practices: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Technological advances can improve care and outcomes but are a primary driver of health care spending growth. Understanding diffusion and use of new oncology therapies is important, given substantial increases in prices and spending on such treatments.

OBJECTIVES

Examine diffusion of bevacizumab, a novel (in 2004) and high-priced biologic cancer therapy, among US oncology practices during 2005-2012 and assess variation in use across practices.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Population-based observational study.

SETTING

A total of 2329 US practices providing cancer chemotherapy.

PARTICIPANTS

Random 20% sample of 236,304 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged above 65 years in 2004-2012 undergoing infused chemotherapy for cancer.

MEASURES

Diffusion of bevacizumab (cumulative time to first use and 10% use) in practices, variation in use across practices overall and by higher versus lower-value use. We used hierarchical models with practice random effects to estimate the between-practice variation in the probability of receiving bevacizumab and to identify factors associated with use.

RESULTS

We observed relatively rapid diffusion of bevacizumab, particularly in independent practices and larger versus smaller practices. We observed substantial variation in use; the adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of bevacizumab use was 2.90 higher (2.73-3.08) for practices 1 SD above versus one standard deviation below the mean. Variation was less for higher-value [odds ratio=2.72 (2.56-2.89)] than lower-value uses [odds ratio=3.61 (3.21-4.06)].

CONCLUSIONS

Use of bevacizumab varied widely across oncology practices, particularly for lower-value indications. These findings suggest that interventions targeted to practices have potential for decreasing low-value use of high-cost cancer therapies.

How Do the Hospital Prices Paid by Medicare Advantage Plans and Commercial Plans Compare With Medicare Fee-for-Service Prices?

The prices that private insurers pay hospitals have received considerable attention in recent years, but most of that literature has focused on the commercially insured population. Although nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in a Medicare Advantage (MA) plan, little is known about the prices paid to hospitals by the private insurers that administer such plans. More information on the hospital prices paid by MA plans would provide additional insights into whether MA prices are more closely tied to Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) prices or commercial prices. Moreover, information on whether the hospital prices paid by MA plans vary with market characteristics or other factors would be useful for evaluating the performance of the MA program and analyzing proposals to modify it. In this study, we compared the hospital prices paid by MA plans and commercial plans with Medicare FFS prices using 2013 claims from the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI) database. The HCCI claims were used to calculate hospital prices for private insurers, and Medicare's payment rules were used to estimate Medicare FFS prices. We focused on stays at acute care hospitals in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We found MA prices to be roughly equal to Medicare FFS prices, on average, but commercial prices were 89% higher than FFS prices. In addition, commercial prices varied greatly across and within MSAs, but MA prices varied much less.

Provider Experiences with Chronic Care Management (CCM) Services and Fees: A Qualitative Research Study

BACKGROUND

Support for ongoing care management and coordination between office visits for patients with multiple chronic conditions has been inadequate. In January 2015, Medicare introduced the Chronic Care Management (CCM) payment policy, which reimburses providers for CCM activities for Medicare beneficiaries occurring outside of office visits.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the experiences, facilitators, and challenges of practices providing CCM services, and their implications going forward.

DESIGN

Semi-structured telephone interviews from January to April 2016 with 71 respondents.

PARTICIPANTS

Sixty billing and non-billing providers and practice staff knowledgeable about their practices' CCM services, and 11 professional society representatives.

KEY RESULTS

Practice respondents noted that most patients expressed positive views of CCM services. Practice respondents also perceived several patient benefits, including improved adherence to treatment, access to care team members, satisfaction, care continuity, and care coordination. Facilitators of CCM provision included having an in-practice care manager, patient-centered medical home recognition, experience developing care plans, patient trust in their provider, and supplemental insurance to cover CCM copayments. Most billing practices reported few problems obtaining patients' consent for CCM, though providers felt that CMS could better facilitate consent by marketing CCM's goals to beneficiaries. Barriers reported by professional society representatives and by billing and non-billing providers included inadequacy of CCM payments to cover upfront investments for staffing, workflow modification, and time needed to manage complex patients. Other barriers included inadequate infrastructure for health information exchange with other providers and limited electronic health record capabilities for documenting and updating care plans. Practices owned by hospital systems and large medical groups faced greater bureaucracy in implementing CCM than did smaller, independent practices.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving providers' experiences with and uptake of CCM will require addressing several challenges, including the upfront investment for CCM set-up and the time required to provide CCM to more complex patients.

Behavioral Health Integration into Primary Care: a Microsimulation of Financial Implications for Practices

BACKGROUND

New payments from Medicare encourage behavioral health services to be integrated into primary care practice activities.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the financial impact for primary care practices of integrating behavioral health services.

DESIGN

Microsimulation model.

PARTICIPANTS

We simulated patients and providers at federally qualified health centers (FQHCs), non-FQHCs in urban and rural high-poverty areas, and practices outside of high-poverty areas surveyed by the National Association of Community Health Centers, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and National Health Interview Survey.

INTERVENTIONS

A collaborative care model (CoCM), involving telephone-based follow-up from a behaviorist care manager, or a primary care behaviorist model (PCBM), involving an in-clinic behaviorist.

MAIN MEASURES

Net revenue change per full-time physician.

KEY RESULTS

When behavioral health integration services were offered only to Medicare patients, net revenue was higher under CoCM (averaging $25,026 per MD in year 1 and $28,548/year in subsequent years) than PCBM (-$7052 in year 1 and -$3706/year in subsequent years). When behavioral health integration services were offered to all patients and were reimbursed by Medicare and private payers, only practices adopting the CoCM approach consistently gained net revenues. The outcomes of the model were sensitive to rates of patient referral acceptance, presentation, and therapy completion, but the CoCM approach remained consistently financially viable whereas PCBM would not be in the long-run across practice types.

CONCLUSIONS

New Medicare payments may offer financial viability for primary care practices to integrate behavioral health services, but this viability depends on the approach toward care integration.