Longitudinal association between an overall diet quality index and latent profiles of cardiovascular risk factors: results from a population based 13-year follow up cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are associated with an unhealthy lifestyle, including poor diet. Indices reflecting the overall quality of diets are more effective than single food or nutrient-based approaches in clarifying the diet disease relationship. The present study aims to use latent variable modeling to examine the longitudinal joint relationships between the latent profiles of CVDs risk factors and the diet quality index (DQI).

METHODS

A total of 4390 Iranian adults aged 35 and older within the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study were included in the current secondary analysis. DQI focused on food groups, including fast foods, sweets, vegetables, fruits, fats, and proteins, based on a validated food frequency questionnaire. The score of DQI has a range between 0 (indicating healthy and high diet quality) and 2 (indicating unhealthy and low diet quality). Blood pressure (BP), anthropometric measurements, blood glucose, serum lipids, and high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (hs-CRP) were measured according to standard protocols in 2001, 2007, and 2013 to evaluate the profiles of CVDs risk factors. A Bayesian Multidimensional Graded Responses Linear Mixed Model was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

At baseline, the participants' mean ± standard deviation age was 50.09 ± 11.21, and 49.5% of them were male. Three latent profiles of CVDs risk factors were derived: (1) Fit Pre-Metabolic Syndrome (FPMS) profile characterized by normal anthropometric indices and some impaired metabolic risk factors; (2) DysLipoproteinemia Central Obese (DLCO) profile with abdominal obesity and impaired low-density lipoprotein cholesterol as well as other normal risk factors; (3) Impaired Laboratory Inflammatory State (ILIS) profile with impaired high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hs-CRP and other normal risk factors. In general, higher scores of the extracted latent profiles indicated more impaired function in the related risk factors. After controlling for various potential fixed and time-varying confounding variables, a significant positive longitudinal association was found between FPMS, DLCO, and ILIS profiles and DQI (β (95% CrI): 0.26 (0.03,0.51), 0.14 (0.01,0.27), and 0.24 (0.11,0.38), respectively), demonstrating that lower overall diet quality was associated with more impaired function of the related risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

More adherence to a healthy quality diet is associated with lower levels of all emerging latent profiles of CVDs risk factors. Increasing the knowledge of the community about the importance of the quality of consumed foods may help to prevent CVDs. It is recommended that further investigations, particularly interventional studies, be conducted to confirm our results.

Longitudinal association of dietary fat intake with cardiovascular events in a prospective cohort study in Eastern Mediterranean region

We examined the association of dietary fats intake with the 13-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Iranian population. Totally 5432 participants of Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) aged ≥ 35 years were included in the current study. The frequency of dietary fats including hydrogenated vegetables oil (HVO), non-hydrogenated vegetables oil (nHVO), olive oil, ghee, and animal fats during the preceding year were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. After adjustment for potential confounders, individuals in the top quartile of HVO tended to have 68% greater risk for myocardial infarction compared with those in the first quartile (95% CI: 1.02, 2.78; P = 0.058). No association was found for other dietary fat sources with ischaemic heart disease, stroke, all-cause and CVD mortality after adjustment for all potential confounders. Higher consumption of HVO was associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

The effect of educational and encouraging interventions on anthropometric characteristics and perilipin-1 levels: TABASSOM Study

BACKGROUND

Perilipin protein located in lipid droplets is involved in formation and storage of lipid in adipocytes; thus, it is considered as one of the obesity biomarkers. This study was performed to examine the effect of educational and encouragement interventions and lifestyle modifications on anthropometric characteristics and perilipin-1 level.

METHODS

This quasi-experimental study was conducted on subsample of TABASSOM Study. Participants were 42 overweight and obese children and adolescents aged 6-18 years old and 80 overweight and obese adults aged 19-65 years old. Anthropometric characteristics including weight, height, waist circumference (WC), body fat percentage (BFP), and perilipin-1 level were measured at the first and the end of study (after one year).

RESULTS

After intervention, the mean of perilipin-1 decreased significantly in total children and adolescents (before vs. after: 26.79 ± 13.17 vs. 22.57 ± 8.03; P = 0.006) and girls (27.75 ± 10.51 vs. 22.00 ± 8.15; P = 0.001), but decreasing was not significant in boys. In adults, perilipin-1 levels were significantly reduced in total subjects (before vs. after: 16.19 ± 13.42 vs. 15.34 ± 11.25; P = 0.029) and men (18.02 ± 15.78 vs. 15.44 ± 10.61; P = 0.003). There was no significant difference in mean of body mass index (BMI), WC, and BFP in both groups after 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Educational and encouraging interventions and lifestyle modifications could lead to decreasing perilipin-1 level in adults, children, and adolescents.

Longitudinal Association of Nut Consumption and the Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background and Aim: There are few pieces of evidence on the association between nut consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This study investigated the relationship of nut consumption with the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in the Iranian population.

Methods and Results: This population-based prospective cohort study was carried out in 6,504 randomly selected participants aged ≥35 years in central Iran (2001–2013) in the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study. Dietary data were collected by a validated 48-item food frequency questionnaire. Subjects or their next of kin were interviewed biannually, looking for the possible occurrence of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. During the median follow-up of 135 months and 52,704.3 person-years, we found a total of 751 CVD events. In unadjusted model, participants in the highest quartile of nut intake had a lower CVD risk {hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.57(0.47–0.70); P for trend < 0.001}, CVD mortality [HR (95% CI): 0.54 (0.33–0.72); P for trend < 0.001], and all-cause mortality [HR (95% CI): 0.24 (0.14–0.42); P for trend < 0.001]. In the fully adjusted model, the association was diluted, and no significant relationship was found between nut intake and CVD events and all-cause mortality, except for CVD mortality in the highest quartile vs. the lowest one [HR (95% CI): 0.55 (0.30–0.98)].

Conclusion: Nut intake had an inverse association with the risk of CVD mortality. It is suggested to perform studies to examine the association of individual types of nuts and different preparation methods on CVD risk and mortality.

Long-term association of red meat consumption and lipid profile: A 13-year prospective population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The long-term associations between red meat consumption and lipid profile are not completely known. This longitudinal study assessed the association of red meat consumption with lipid profile in healthy Iranian adults using repeated measurements of red meat intake.

METHODS

The population-based longitudinal study was conducted within the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study on a subsample of 1376 healthy adults, aged ≥35 y, for whom complete information was available in all three phases of the study. A simplified qualitative 48-item food frequency questionnaire, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, and fasting serum lipids and blood sugar were evaluated in three phases. Mixed-effects linear regression was applied to examine the longitudinal associations between red meat consumption and lipid profile.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounders, each single-serving increase in red meat and organ meat consumption was significantly associated with an increment in triacylglycerol (β = 6.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.97-8.63), total cholesterol (β = 3.03; 95% CI, 2.02-4.04), low-density lipoprotein (β = 3.40; 95% CI, 2.64-4.17), high-density lipoprotein (β = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.28-0.93), ratio of low-density to high-density lipoprotein (β = 0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.05), and non-high-density lipoprotein (β = 2.42; 95% CI, 1.41-3.43). However, processed meat consumption had no significant association with lipid profile.

CONCLUSIONS

Total red meat intake had a significant, direct association with lipid profile after a 13-year follow-up period in a cohort of the healthy Iranian population.

Visceral Obesity and Its Shared Role in Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease: A Scoping Review of the Pathophysiology and Pharmacological Treatments

The association between obesity, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been demonstrated in animal and epidemiological studies. However, the specific role of visceral obesity on cancer and CVD remains unclear. Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a complex and metabolically active tissue, that can produce different adipokines and hormones, responsible for endocrine-metabolic comorbidities. This review explores the potential mechanisms related to VAT that may also be involved in cancer and CVD. In addition, we discuss the shared pharmacological treatments which may reduce the risk of both diseases. This review highlights that chronic inflammation, molecular aspects, metabolic syndrome, secretion of hormones and adiponectin associated to VAT may have synergistic effects and should be further studied in relation to cancer and CVD. Reductions in abdominal and visceral adiposity improve insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and cytokines, which consequently reduce the risk of CVD and some cancers. Several medications have shown to reduce visceral and/or subcutaneous fat. Further research is needed to investigate the pathophysiological mechanisms by which visceral obesity may cause both cancer and CVD. The role of visceral fat in cancer and CVD is an important area to advance. Public health policies to increase public awareness about VAT's role and ways to manage or prevent it are needed.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

White Rice Intake and Incident Diabetes: A Study of 132,373 Participants in 21 Countries

OBJECTIVE

Previous prospective studies on the association of white rice intake with incident diabetes have shown contradictory results but were conducted in single countries and predominantly in Asia. We report on the association of white rice with risk of diabetes in the multinational Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data on 132,373 individuals aged 35-70 years from 21 countries were analyzed. White rice consumption (cooked) was categorized as <150, ≥150 to <300, ≥300 to <450, and ≥450 g/day, based on one cup of cooked rice = 150 g. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a multivariable Cox frailty model.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 9.5 years, 6,129 individuals without baseline diabetes developed incident diabetes. In the overall cohort, higher intake of white rice (≥450 g/day compared with <150 g/day) was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.40; P for trend = 0.003). However, the highest risk was seen in South Asia (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13-2.30; P for trend = 0.02), followed by other regions of the world (which included South East Asia, Middle East, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa) (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.08-1.86; P for trend = 0.01), while in China there was no significant association (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.77-1.40; P for trend = 0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher consumption of white rice is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes with the strongest association being observed in South Asia, while in other regions, a modest, nonsignificant association was seen.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pathways leading to prevention of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease: An interaction model on 15 years population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive study on the interaction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is critical to prevent cardiovascular events. The main focus of this study is thus to understand direct and indirect relationships between different CVD risk factors.

METHODS

A longitudinal data on adults aged ≥35 years, who were free of CVD at baseline, were used in this study. The endpoints were CVD events, whereas their measurements were demographic, lifestyle components, socio-economics, anthropometric measures, laboratory findings, quality of life status, and psychological factors. A Bayesian structural equation modelling was used to determine the relationships among 21 relevant factors associated with total CVD, stroke, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and fatal CVDs.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 3161 individuals with complete information were involved in the study. A total of 407 CVD events, with an average age of 54.77(10.66) years, occurred during follow-up. The causal associations between six latent variables were identified in the causal network for fatal and non-fatal CVDs. Lipid profile, with the coefficient of 0.26 (0.01), influenced the occurrence of CVD events as the most critical factor, while it was indirectly mediated through risky behaviours and comorbidities. Lipid profile at baseline was influenced by a wide range of other protective factors, such as quality of life and healthy lifestyle components.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysing a causal network of risk factors revealed the flow of information in direct and indirect paths. It also determined predictors and demonstrated the utility of integrating multi-factor data in a complex framework to identify novel preventable pathways to reduce the risk of CVDs.

Is urinary sodium excretion related to anthropometric indicators of adiposity in adults?

Background

Although increasing salt intake is associated with greater odds of obesity, little is known about its relationship with body fat. We investigated the relation of urinary sodium (UNa) with obesity indices, including Clínica Universidad de Navarra-Body Adiposity Estimator (CUN-BAE), a body shape index (ABSI), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR).

Materials and Methods

A total of 508 free-living adults aged ≥ 19 years were selected through stratified multistage random method as a representative of general population from central parts of Iran and were included in this cross-sectional study. Dietary sodium intake was measured using 24-h UNa (24-UNa) excretion. Weight, height, and WC were measured using standard protocols and calibrated equipment and used to measure obesity indicators, including BMI, WHtR, ABSI, and CUN-BAE. Adjusted univariate multiple logistic regression was used to assess the risk of having greater obesity measures across the tertiles of 24-UNa.

Results

Individuals in the top tertile of 24-UNa in comparison with those in the first tertile had greater body weight (72.02 ± 1.00 vs. 66.02 ± 0.89 kg; P < 0.0001), BMI (26.14 ± 0.33 vs. 24.82 ± 0.29 kg/m²; P = 0.007), and CUN-BAE (29.89 ± 0.42 vs. 28.38 ± 0.78; P = 0.036). There was a trend toward an increment in WC by increasing sodium intake (P = 0.073). After controlling for potential confounders, individuals with greater sodium consumption had greater chance for overweight (odds ratio [OR]: 1.004, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001-1.007; P = 0.015), abdominal obesity (OR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.00-1.008; P = 0.031), and more body fat (OR: 1.007, 95% CI: 1.003-1.01; P = 0.001). No significant association was found for sodium and WHtR and ABSI.

Conclusion

Greater 24-UNa excretion was associated with greater means of body weight, BMI, WC, and CUN-BAE. Although changes in obesity indices per each additional 24-UNa excretion were small, our findings are relevant because of the rising obesity epidemic.

Temporal Trends of the Incidence of Ischemic Heart Disease in Iran Over 15 Years: A Comprehensive Report from a Multi-Centric Hospital-Based Registry

BACKGROUND

We sought to explore the temporal trend of ischemic heart disease (IHD) incidence rate (IR) in a large city of Iran.

METHODS

The study population comprised hospitalized patients who were living in Isfahan, Iran, with first or recurrent IHD during the period of 2001 to 2016. To identify patients, clinical diagnostic codes were applied according to the International Classification of Diseases 10 (ICD-10: I20.0, I21-I25) and the "World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease" diagnostic categories (WHO-MONICA). Using a direct method, we calculated age-, sex-, and place-of-residence-adjusted incidence rates based on multiple reference populations. To examine the long-term trend for the IR, a bootstrap robust zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was used.

RESULTS

A total of 102,254 hospitalized patients, with a mean (SD) age of 61.85 (12.79), were registered between 2001 and 2016. After an initial reduction from 2006 to 2010, crude and adjusted IRs of IHD increased between 2010 and 2016. We further observed a significant increasing long-term temporal trend in the IR with an average annual change of 1.42% to 3.36% over the study period.

CONCLUSION

Our findings showed a decreasing trend in the IR of IHD between 2006 and 2010, possibly attributed to the comprehensive community-based interventions named "Isfahan Healthy Heart Program" performed from 2001 to 2007, followed by an increase in the adjusted IR of IHD between 2010 and 2016 in Isfahan; this indicates the importance of continuing the preventive measures to preclude the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in our population.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Association of egg intake with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 177,000 people in 50 countries

BACKGROUND

Eggs are a rich source of essential nutrients, but they are also a source of dietary cholesterol. Therefore, some guidelines recommend limiting egg consumption. However, there is contradictory evidence on the impact of eggs on diseases, largely based on studies conducted in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to assess the association of egg consumption with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality in large global studies involving populations from low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

METHODS

We studied 146,011 individuals from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Egg consumption was recorded using country-specific validated FFQs. We also studied 31,544 patients with vascular disease in 2 multinational prospective studies: ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global End Point Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomized Assessment Study in ACEI Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease). We calculated HRs using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering by study center separately within each study.

RESULTS

In the PURE study, we recorded 14,700 composite events (8932 deaths and 8477 CVD events). In the PURE study, after excluding those with history of CVD, higher intake of egg (≥7 egg/wk compared with <1 egg/wk intake) was not significantly associated with blood lipids, composite outcome (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.04; P-trend = 0.74), total mortality (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.15; P-trend = 0.38), or major CVD (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.01; P-trend = 0.20). Similar results were observed in ONTARGET/TRANSCEND studies for composite outcome (HR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.25; P-trend = 0.09), total mortality (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.62, 1.24; P-trend = 0.55), and major CVD (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.29; P-trend = 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

In 3 large international prospective studies including ∼177,000 individuals, 12,701 deaths, and 13,658 CVD events from 50 countries in 6 continents, we did not find significant associations between egg intake and blood lipids, mortality, or major CVD events. The ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00153101. The PURE trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03225586.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries

OBJECTIVE

Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes).

RESULTS

In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

High dietary acid load score is not associated with the risk of metabolic syndrome in Iranian adults

Background and objective: The association between dietary acid load and metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk is not well-known. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relationship between dietary acid load and the risk of MetS among Iranian adults. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out on 1430 Iranian adults. Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Dietary acid load was estimated using potential renal acid load (PRAL) and net endogenous acid production (NEAP). MetS was defined according to the ATP-III criteria. The risk of MetS and its components was explored using logistic regression test. Results: Totally, 205 individuals were identified to have MetS. No significant association for MetS was found across the quartiles of PRAL and NEAP either in the crude model [Q4 PRAL: OR (95% CI): 0.94 (0.67-1.32), and NEAP: OR (95% CI): 0.88 (0.63-1.25)] or fully-adjusted model [Q4 PRAL: OR (95% CI): 0.90 (0.61-1.33), and NEAP: OR (95% CI): 1.05 (0.70-1.57)]. Amongst the components of MetS, higher scores of NEAP was associated with an increased risk of impaired blood sugar after adjustment for potential confounders [OR (95% CI): 1.35 (0.93-1.96)]. No significant association was found for other components either with PRAL or with NEAP. Conclusion: Our findings suggest no association between dietary acid load and MetS risk in Iranian adults. However, higher dietary acid load, measured by NEAP, but not PRAL, was associated with increased risk of impaired fasting blood sugar. Longitudinal studies are warranted to explore whether a diet low in potential acid load could reduce MetS risk.

The alternate-day fasting diet is a more effective approach than a calorie restriction diet on weight loss and hs-CRP levels

Background and Objective: The aim of present study was to compare, and determine, the effects of a modified alternate-day fasting diet vs. calorie restriction on inflammatory indices and coagulation factors. Methods: This was a randomized clinical trial consisting of 80 metabolic syndrome patients, who were enrolled and randomly dichotomized into a modified alternate-day fasting diet or calorie restriction group for 4 months. We measured weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumstance (WC), waist-hip-ratio (WHR) and fat mass as primary outcomes and assessed high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin 6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and coagulation factors levels as secondary outcomes before and after intervention. Results: Compared to the calorie restriction diet, following a modified alternate-day fasting diet led to a greater reduction in body weight (kg) (-6.43 ± 4.34 vs -4.11 ± 4.27; P = 0.02), BMI (kg/m²) (-3.19 ± 2.90 vs -1.43 ± 2.72; P = 0.01), fat mass (kg) (-4.88 ± 2.09 vs -3.72 ± 2.43; P = 0.03), WC (cm) (-5.57 ± 5.64 vs -2.32 ± 5.95; P = 0.01) and WHR (-0.05 ± 0.06 vs -0.02 ± 0.07; P = 0.04). Furthermore, a greater change was found in hs-CRP levels (mg/L) (-2.06 ± 1.18 vs -0.97 ± 0.82; P = 0.03), prothrombin time (s) (1.41 ± 2.34 vs -0.41 ± 2.17; P < 0.001), activated partial thromboplastin time (s) (0.26 ± 3.70 vs -1.78 ± 3.56; P = 0.04) in modified alternate-day fasting diet when compared to calorie restriction diet. However, there was no difference in TNF-α or IL-6 and fibrinogen between groups (P > 0.05). Conclusions: These findings suggest that a modified alternate-day fasting diet can be a beneficial alternative for the management of body weight, fat mass and WC as well as hs-CRP and coagulation factors levels among metabolic syndrome patients.

Salt intake and its sources in children, adolescents and adults in Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Background: There is little evidence about salt intake and its food sources in the Iranian population, especially in children and adolescents. Aims: To investigate salt intake and dietary sources in Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran. Methods: This was a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2014–2015. We randomly selected 1384 adults (50.3% female, 49.7% male) aged > 18 years [mean 37.9 (10.6) years], and 786 children and adolescents (50.9% male, 49.1% female) aged 618 years [mean 12.5 (3.4) years]. All participants underwent a dietary assessment for salt intake, using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Results: The total salt intake was 10.9 (3.4) g/day in adults and 10.3 (2.9) g/day in children and adolescents. Added salt was the primary source of salt intake, followed by bread and cheese in both groups. Salt intake was related significantly to being younger, male, a smoker, less educated and physically active in the adult group. In children and adolescents, it was significantly associated with increasing age, male sex, low physical activity and parents’ education level (all P < 0.05). Conclusions: Salt intake in Isfahan was more than twice that recommended by the World Health Organization. The main source of sodium was added salt, followed bread and cheese. Future national studies are warranted to assess the dietary salt intake and its main sources in different provinces in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Essential hypertension in children, a growing worldwide problem

Hypertension is one of the most common diseases worldwide. For many decades, it was considered as a problem related to adult population; however, its incidence in children has also been increased in recent years. Although secondary causes of hypertension are more common in children, few studies have been published focusing on the growing epidemic rate of essential hypertension in children and adolescents. Considering the importance of essential hypertension and its cardiovascular consequences, we review briefly its epidemiology and risk factors in children.

Trend of salt intake measured by 24-hour urine collection samples among Iranian adults population between 1998 and 2013: The Isfahan salt study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Few population-based studies conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean region assessed salt intake by the measurement of 24-h sodium urine excretion (24-hUNa). The current study aimed to assess the trend of mean salt intake in Iranian adults between 1998 and 2013.

METHODS AND RESULTS

These cross-sectional studies were performed on 564, 157, 509 and 837 randomly selected healthy adults aged >18 years from Isfahan city, Iran, in 1998, 2001, 2007 and 2013, respectively. BP was measured using a mercury sphygmomanometer according to a standard protocol. Single 24-h urine was collected to assess 24-hUNa as a surrogate of salt intake, and 24-h urinary K (24-hUK). The estimated trend of salt intake was 9.5, 9.7, 9.6 and 10.2 g/day in total population (P < 0.001). The increase in salt intake between 1998 and 2013 was significant only in men, (P < 0.001). The risk of pre-hypertension was 21% and 18% significantly greater in the highest quartiles of UNa/UK after adjustment for potential confounders in 2001 and 2013, respectively, [OR (95% CI): 1.21 (1.03-1.64) and 1.18 (1.02-1.38), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based study indicated that mean salt intake was about two times of recommendation in Isfahan city, Iran, and suggest that it would be essential to implement a salt reduction strategy program in Iranian population. Longitudinal national studies with larger samples examining the trend of salt intake are warranted.

Temporal trend analysis of stroke and salt intake: a 15-year population-based study

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate temporal trends of salt intake with stroke incidence, stroke subtypes, and blood pressure in an adult population.Methods: Data were extracted from Isfahan Salt Study. The stroke incidence rate, average salt intake, systolic and diastolic blood pressure in adults, aged over 18 years were considered from 2000 to 2014. The Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPC), parallelism, and the coincidence of trends were estimated, using a permutation test.Results: The trend of salt intake was increased from 2010 to 2014 (AAPC = +1.59, P-value = 0.004). The trend of the stroke incidence rate was nonlinear with two change points in 2003 and 2009. The overall stroke incidence rate increased by 6.65% per year (95% CI: 1.66, 11.8, P-value = 0.015). The temporal trend changes of stroke incidence rate were steeper in patients who aged 40-45 and over 50 years (+6 to +11.5%) than in patients who aged 19-40 and 45-50 (range: -3.3% to 0). The parallelism hypothesis of longitudinal changes between salt intake and ischemic stroke was accepted in patients, aged <50 years (P-value = 0.871).Conclusions: The average salt intake and its cone-shaped variance over 15 years of the study, indicated that salt intake reduction programs and policies were effective to stop associating intake increase until 2007, however, associated intake was increased since that time, which necessitates performing preventive programs. More importantly, the trend of salt intake and ischemic stroke was similar in patients who aged <50 years, regardless of considering their blood pressure.

Long-term association of nut consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Long-term associations between nut consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors are not well known. We investigated the relationship between nut consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors including dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), and obesity in a cohort of Iranian adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study was conducted within the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study on 1387 healthy participants. The participants were followed up for 12 years. A validated food frequency questionnaire was completed, and anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, and fasting serum lipids and blood sugar were evaluated in three phases. Mixed-effects binary logistic regression was applied to examine the associations between nut consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors. The participants were classified according to the tertiles of nut consumption as cut-points, and associations were evaluated between the thirds of nut intake. Subjects in the last third were less likely to have hypercholesterolemia [OR (95% CI): 0.76 (0.60-0.97)], hypertriglyceridemia [OR (95% CI): 0.74 (0.58-0.93)], and obesity [OR (95% CI): 0.79 (0.50-0.98)] but more likely to have DM [OR (95% CI): 1.85 (1.27-2.68)] than those in the first third. However, after adjustment for various potential confounders, the associations remained significant only for obesity [OR (95% CI): 0.67 (0.48-0.94)] and DM [OR (95% CI): 2.23 (1.37-3.64)].

CONCLUSION

After adjustment for potential confounders, we observed an inverse association for nut consumption and obesity but positive association for DM and nut intake. On the basis of our findings, it is suggested that incorporation of nuts into people's usual diet may have beneficial effects for individuals with lower risk such as subjects without DM.