Innovative non-invasive model for screening reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate in a working population

AIM

Most of the existing risk scores for identifying people with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) involve laboratory-based factors, which are not convenient and cost-effective to use in a large population-based screening programme. We aimed at using non-invasive variables to identify subjects with reduced eGFR in a Chinese working population.

METHODS

Two study populations were recruited in 2012 and 2015, respectively. The 2012 study population (n = 14 374) was randomly separated as the training dataset (n = 9621) or the internal testing dataset (n = 4753) at a ratio of 2:1, and the 2015 study population (n = 4371) was used as the external testing dataset. Stepwise logistic regression analysis with age, gender, hypertension and body mass index (BMI) status were first performed in the training dataset and then validated in both internal and external testing dataset. A nomogram was further developed based on the final model.

RESULTS

Results showed that older females with higher BMI status were more likely to have reduced eGFR. The model had excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.887 [95%CI: 0.865, 0.909] in the internal validation and 0.880 [95%CI: 0.829, 0.931] in the external validation) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.798 and 0.397 for internal and external dataset, respectively). The probability of having reduced eGFR increased gradually from <0.1% at a total score of 0 to 26% at a total score of 58 shown in the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

Non-invasive variables could help identify individuals at high risk of reduced eGFR for further kidney function testing or intervention, aiding in decision-making and resource allocation in large population screening.

A nomogram predicting contralateral central neck lymph node metastasis for papillary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Central compartment neck dissection (CCND) is recommended for patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, whether to perform contralateral CCND remains unclear. An individualized estimation of the contralateral central neck metastasis (CNM) risk would assist in the tailoring of treatment for PTC patients.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent bilateral CCND for unilateral PTC between 2012 and 2014 in a tertiary center were identified. The clinicopathological data of 142 patients were analyzed retrospectively. The variables that had clinical significance in the final multivariate logistic regression model were built into a nomogram to assess the risk of metastasis of the contralateral central compartment. This model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

This nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.834 (bootstrap corrected, 0.824). The variables with the greatest influence on the risk of contralateral CNM in this model included tumor size, the number of positive lymph nodes, and extranodal extension in the ipsilateral central neck.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram integrates three variables to estimate an individualized risk of contralateral CNM in unilateral PTC patients. This model may assist in individual decision-making regarding contralateral CCND and help avoid the over- and under-treatment of PTC. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:703-707. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A nomogram composed of clinicopathologic features and preoperative serum tumor markers to predict lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer patients

Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) accurately is of great importance to formulate optimal treatment strategies preoperatively for patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). This study aimed to explore risk factors that predict the presence of LNM in EGC. A total of 697 patients underwent gastrectomy enrolled in this study, were divided into training and validation set, and the relationship between LNM and other clinicopathologic features, preoperative serum combined tumor markers (CEA, CA19-9, CA125) were evaluated. Risk factors for LNM were identified using logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was created by R program to predict the possibility of LNM in training set, while receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to assess the predictive value of the nomogram model in validation set. Consequently, LNM was significantly associated with tumor size, macroscopic type, differentiation type, ulcerative findings, lymphovascular invasion, depth of invasion and combined tumor marker. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, factors including of tumor size, differentiation type, ulcerative findings, lymphovascular invasion, depth of invasion and combined tumor marker were demonstrated to be independent risk factors for LNM. Moreover, a predictive nomogram with these independent factors for LNM in EGC patients was constructed, and ROC curve demonstrated a good discrimination ability with the AUC of 0.847 (95% CI: 0.789-0.923), which was significantly larger than those produced in previous studies. Therefore, including of these tumor markers which could be convenient and feasible to obtain from the serum preoperatively, the nomogram could effectively predict the incidence of LNM for EGC patients.

Statistical modelling for thoracic surgery using a nomogram based on logistic regression

A well-developed clinical nomogram is a popular decision-tool, which can be used to predict the outcome of an individual, bringing benefits to both clinicians and patients. With just a few steps on a user-friendly interface, the approximate clinical outcome of patients can easily be estimated based on their clinical and laboratory characteristics. Therefore, nomograms have recently been developed to predict the different outcomes or even the survival rate at a specific time point for patients with different diseases. However, on the establishment and application of nomograms, there is still a lot of confusion that may mislead researchers. The objective of this paper is to provide a brief introduction on the history, definition, and application of nomograms and then to illustrate simple procedures to develop a nomogram with an example based on a multivariate logistic regression model in thoracic surgery. In addition, validation strategies and common pitfalls have been highlighted.

Validation of a rectal cancer outcome prediction model with a cohort of Chinese patients

The risk of local recurrence (LR), distant metastases (DM) and overall survival (OS) of locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiation can be estimated by prediction models and visualized using nomograms, which have been trained and validated in European clinical trial populations. Data of 277 consecutive locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma patients treated with preoperative chemoradiation and surgery from Shanghai Cancer Center, were retrospectively collected and used for external validation. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to assess the performance of the previously developed prediction models in this routine clinical validation population. The C-index for the published prediction models was 0.72 ± 0.079, 0.75 ± 0.043 and 0.72 ± 0.089 in predicting 2-year LR, DM and OS in the Chinese population, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated good discriminating performance regarding LR, but could not convincingly discriminate a low-risk and medium-risk group for distant control and OS. Calibration curves showed a trend of underestimation of local and distant control, as well as OS in the observed data compared with the estimates predicted by the model.

In conclusion, we externally validated three models for predicting 2-year LR, DM and OS of locally advanced rectal cancer patients who underwent preoperative chemoradiation and curative surgery with good discrimination in a single Chinese cohort. However, the model overestimated the local control rate compared to observations in the clinical cohort. Validation in other clinical cohorts and optimization of the prediction model, perhaps by including additional prognostic factors, may enhance model validity and its applicability for personalized treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer.

Assessment of the performance of Partin's nomogram (2007) in contemporary Indian cohort

Introduction:

Partin's nomogram is an important prognostic tool to predict adverse pathological features for clinically localized prostate carcinoma. This tool is widely used by both radiation and surgical oncologists for pre-intervention counseling, treatment planning, and predicting the possible need for adjuvant treatment. However, the model is derived from a Western population with typical characteristics of prostate cancer in a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screened population. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the performance of the Partin's nomogram as applied to an Indian cohort by assessing the discrimination and calibration properties.

Methods:

A retrospective review of 282 patients treated with robotic radical prostatectomy from 2010 to 2015 was conducted. Partin tables (year 2007) were used to calculate the predicted probabilities for lymph node invasion (LNI), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), and extraprostatic extension (EPE). The discrimination properties were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration of the model was done to show the relationship between predicted and observed values.

Results:

The mean age of the patients was 64.3 years. Most (59.4%) were clinical T2 disease. Patients with PSA >10 ng/ml comprised 60% of the population. ECE, SVI, and LNI were present in 39.2%, 22%, and 11% of cases, respectively. ROC analysis revealed area under curve values for EPE, SVI, and LNI of 68%, 67.5%, and 71.2%, respectively. Calibration plot suggested that the Partin tables under-predicted the risk whenever the values of predicted risk were more than 26%, 3%, and 1% for EPE, SVI, and LNI, respectively, and over predicted when the risk was lower.

Conclusion:

Our data show that Partin's tables, despite having fair discrimination properties, do not accurately predict LNI, SVI, and ECE across the entire range of predicted values in a contemporary Indian cohort.

High PD-L1 expression was associated with poor prognosis in 870 Chinese patients with breast cancer

Background

To investigate the role of PD-L1 expression in tumor recurrence and metastasis in Chinese patients with breast cancer.

Methods

Suitable tissue samples were available from 870 patients with breast cancer. Paraffin-embedded tumor sections were stained with PD-L1 antibody. The correlations between PD-L1 expression and clinical characteristics, ER/PR/HER2 status and survival parameters were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier and univariate Cox proportional hazards model analyses were used to compare the survival of patients with high PD-L1 expression and patients with no PD-L1 expression.

Results

The median follow-up time was 98 months(range, 17–265 months). The positive rate of PD-L1 expression in breast cancer was 21.7% (189/870). PD-L1 high expression was inversely associated with larger tumor size, higher tumor grade, more positive lymph node number, as well as negative ER and PR status. PD-L1 expression was particularly higher in TNBC compared with non-TNBC, although no statistical significance was observed. Nomogram logistic regression results based on clinical and pathological features showed that the following factors were more likely associated with high PD-L1 expression: patient age younger than 35 years, larger tumor size, lymphovascular invasion and advanced stage. Our data indicated that patients with high PD-L1 expression had poor DFS, DMFS and overall survival compared with those with no PD-L1 expression. Univariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that PD-L1 was an independent prognostic factor for tumor prognosis.

Conclusions

PD-L1 expression is an important indicator of unfavorable prognosis in breast cancer patients.

Factors for tumor progression in patients with skull base chordoma

Skull base chordoma is a rare and fatal disease, recurrence of which is inevitable, albeit variable. We aimed to investigate the clinicopathologic features of disease progression, identify prognostic factors, and construct a nomogram for predicting progression in individual patients. Data of 229 patients with skull base chordoma treated by one institution between 2005 and 2014 were retrieved and grouped as primary and recurrent. Kaplan-Meier survival of progression was estimated, taking competing risks into account. Multivariable Cox regression was used to investigate survival predictors. The primary group consisted by 183 cases, gained more benefits on 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) (51%) and mean PFS time (66.9 months) than the recurrent group (46 cases), in which 5-year postrecurrent PFS was 14%, and mean postrecurrent PFS time was 29.5 months. In the primary group, visual deficits, pathological subtypes, extent of bone invasion, preoperative Karnofsky performance scale (KPS) score, and variation in perioperative KPS were identified as independent predictors of PFS. A nomogram to predict 3-year and 5-year PFS consisted of these factors, was well calibrated and had good discriminative ability (adjusted Harrell C statistic, 0.68). In the recurrent group, marginal resection (P = 0.018) and adjuvant radiotherapy (P = 0.043) were verified as protective factors associated with postrecurrent PFS. Factors for tumor progression demonstrated some differences between primary and recurrent cases. The nomogram appears useful for risk stratification of tumor progression in primary cases. Further studies will be necessary to identify the rapid-growth histopathological subtype as an independent predictor of rapid progression.

Prognostic significance of ST6GalNAc-1 expression in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Background

Sialyltransferase ST6GalNAc-1 is highly expressed in tumor cells and associated with tumor aggressiveness and poor prognosis. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the clinical and prognostic significance of sialyltransferase ST6GalNAc-1 in patients with non-metastatic ccRCC.

Results

High expression of ST6GalNAc-1 in tumor tissue was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (p<0.001) and recurrence free survival (p<0.001) in multivariate analysis. The nomograms could give better prediction for overall survival and recurrence free survival in ccRCC patients.

Methods

264 patients diagnosed with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma were enrolled in the present study. Immunohistochemical staining was performed on tissue microarrays to evaluate the intratumoral ST6GalNAc-1 expression. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model were applied to assess the prognostic value of ST6GalNAc-1. Nomograms were generated to refine individual risk stratification in ccRCC patients.

Conclusion

ST6GalNAc-1 was an independent adverse prognostic factor for both overall survival and recurrence free survival in patients with non-metastatic ccRCC.

Clinical predictors for high-grade bladder cancer before first-time transurethral resection of the bladder tumor: a retrospective cohort study

The aim of this study was to identify the clinical predictors related to the risk of high-grade bladder cancer before first-time transurethral resection of the bladder tumor (TUR-Bt) and to externally validate the accuracy of Shapur's nomogram predicting the risk of high-grade bladder cancer in Japanese patients. As a result, episode of gross hematuria (odds ratio: 2.68, P = 0.02), larger tumor size (odds ratio: 1.89, P < 0.01) and positive urinary cytology (odds ratio: 8.34, P < 0.01) were found to be significant predictors for high-grade bladder cancer. Furthermore, the nomogram showed a high predictive accuracy in our Japanese population (area under the curve: 0.79). Clinicians will be able to predict high-grade bladder cancer using the common factors in Shapur's study and ours, such as tumor size and urinary cytology, and gross hematuria as the additional factor first identified here to decide priorities for the treatment of patients diagnosed with bladder cancer.

Primary Gleason pattern upgrading in contemporary patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer: implications for future biomarkers and imaging modalities

OBJECTIVE

To retrospectively assess the rate of high-grade primary Gleason upgrading (HGPGU) to primary Gleason pattern 4 or 5 in a contemporary cohort of patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer including those who fulfilled Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance (PRIAS) criteria, and to develop a tool for HGPGU prediction. HGPGU is a contraindication in most active surveillance (AS) and focal therapy protocols.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In all, 10 616 patients with localised prostate cancer were treated at a high-volume European tertiary care centre from 2010 to 2015 with radical prostatectomy. Analyses were restricted to 1 819 patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer (17.1%) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of <10.0 ng/mL, cT1c-cT2a and Gleason score ≤6, and were repeated within 772 of the men (7.3%) who fulfilled the PRIAS criteria for AS (PSA level of ≤10 ng/mL, T1c-T2, Gleason score ≤6, PSA density (PSAD) of <0.2 ng/mL² , ≤2 positive cores). Uni- and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted, testing predictors of HGPGU. The final logistic regression model was based on the most informative variables.

RESULTS

There was HGPGU in 88 (4.8%) patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer and in 32 (4.1%) of the subgroup who were PRIAS eligible. Multivariable analysis predicting HGPGU for the patients with D'Amico low-risk yielded three independent predictors: age, PSAD, and clinical tumour stage (P = 0.008, P = 0.005 and P = 0.021, respectively). Within the same patients, the model using all vs the most informative variables resulted in area under the curves (AUCs) of 69.2% and 68.3%, respectively. Multivariable analysis of those who were PRIAS eligible, yielded age and number of positive cores as independent predictors of HGPGU (P = 0.002 and P = 0.049, respectively; AUC 64.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The low accuracy (invariably <70%) for HGPGU prediction in both patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer and PRIAS eligibility indicates that these variables have poor predictive ability in contemporary patients. Despite HGPGU being a rare phenomenon, it may have life threatening implications and consequently alternatives such as biomarkers, genetic markers, or imaging modalities at re-biopsy are needed.

External validation of a PCA-3-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer and high-grade cancer on initial prostate biopsy

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to externally validate a previously developed PCA3-based nomogram for the prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) and high-grade (intermediate and/or high-grade) prostate cancer (HGPCa) at the time of initial prostate biopsy.

METHODS

A retrospective review was performed on a cohort of 336 men from a large urban academic medical center. All men had serum PSA <20 ng/ml and underwent initial transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy with at least 10 cores sampling for suspicious exam and/or elevated PSA. Covariates were collected for the nomogram and included age, ethnicity, family history (FH) of PCa, PSA at diagnosis, PCA3, total prostate volume (TPV), and abnormal finding on digital rectal exam (DRE). These variables were used to test the accuracy (concordance index) and calibration of a previously published PCA3 nomogram.

RESULTS

Biopsy confirms PCa and HGPCa in 51.0% and 30.4% of validation patients, respectively. This differed from the original cohort in that it had significantly more PCa and HGPCA (51% vs. 44%, P = 0.019; and 30.4% vs. 19.1%, P < 0.001). Despite the differences in PCa detection the concordance index was 75% and 77% for overall PCa and HGPCa, respectively. Calibration for overall PCa was good.

CONCLUSIONS

This represents the first external validation of a PCA3-based prostate cancer predictive nomogram in a North American population. Prostate 76:1019-1023, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of a nomogram for predicting regression from impaired fasting glucose to normoglycaemia to facilitate clinical decision making

BACKGROUND

In Hong Kong, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is the most popular screening test for diabetes mellitus (DM) in primary care. Individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) are commonly encountered.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the determinants of regression to normoglycaemia among primary care patients with IFG based on non-invasive variables and to establish a nomogram for the prediction of regression from IFG.

METHODS

This cohort study consisted of 1197 primary care patients with IFG. These subjects were invited to repeat a FPG test and 75-g 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (2h-OGTT) to determine the glycaemia change. Normoglycaemia was defined as FPG <5.6 mmol/L and 2h-OGTT <7.8 mmol/L. Stepwise logistic regression model was developed to predict the regression to normoglycaemia with non-invasive variables, using a randomly selected training dataset (810 subjects). The model was validated on the remaining testing dataset (387 subjects). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate discrimination and calibration of the model. A nomogram was constructed based on the model.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up period of 6.1 months, 180 subjects (15.0%) had normoglycaemia based on the repeated FPG and 2h-OGTT results at follow-up. Subjects without central obesity or hypertension, with moderate-to-high-level physical activity and a lower baseline FPG level, were more likely to regress to normoglycaemia. The prediction model had acceptable discrimination (AUC = 0.705) and calibration (P = 0.840).

CONCLUSION

The simple-to-use nomogram could facilitate identification of subjects with low risk of progression to DM and thus aid in clinical decision making and resource prioritization in the primary care setting.

Development of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Nonresponse to Total Knee Arthroplasty 1 Year After Surgery

BACKGROUND

Indications for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) currently depend on clinical judgment. Up to one fifth of those who undergo primary TKA do not report a clinically meaningful improvement in pain and function after surgery. Our aim was to develop and internally validate a prognostic tool for predicting the probability of nonresponse to surgery at 12 months.

METHODS

Patients from 1 center who underwent primary TKA (N = 615) between 2012 and 2013. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index was collected pre- and 12 months after TKA from which nonresponse to surgery was determined using the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology-Osteoarthritis Research Society International responder criteria. Using independent prognostic correlates of postoperative nonresponse observed in adjusted modeling, we derived a prognostic nomogram to estimate the probability of nonresponse to TKA based on this suite of explanatory variables.

RESULTS

A total of 90/615 (15%) cases were nonresponders to TKA. The degree of contribution (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval) of each explanatory factor to nonresponse nomogram points was body mass index ≥40 kg/m(2) (3.48; 1.97-6.12), Kellgren and Lawrence <4 (2.59; 1.58-4.24), mental disability on Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) mental component score (3.30; 1.44-7.58), and every 10-point increase in preoperative Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index score (0.81; 0.68-0.97). The concordance index for this model was 0.74.

CONCLUSION

We have created a prognostic nomogram that displays the predictive probabilities of nonresponse to TKA as a source of decision support for clinicians and patients, about their likely functional outcome from TKA. Although our own internal validation suggested good nomogram performance, external validation in a comparable surgical population is required to confirm generalizability of the nomogram.

Risk analysis of carotid stent from a population-based database in Taiwan

Because stroke is the third leading disease that causes mortality in the world, the prevention of stroke from advanced carotid stenosis is an important issue. The carotid stent (CAS) is a less invasive to treat advanced carotid stenosis, but for high-risk patients it may cause some events after the procedure that reduces the benefit of stroke prevention. Because patients and their families have less information about risk of events after CAS and are easy concerned, this study calculates the individual probability of major adverse cardiovascular events including any stroke, myocardial infarction, or death after procedure.The analyzed dataset was composed of patients undergoing CAS from the longitudinal National Health Insurance claim database in Taiwan. The validation dataset was composed of patients undergoing CAS from the Tri-Service General Hospital. We excluded patients under 18 years of age. The prediction model was constructed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression and performed with forward stepwise selection. The nomogram construction was based on the multivariable Cox model.The risk factors were determined as follows: age with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.027 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002-1.053) for every 1 year older, congestive heart failure with a HR of 2.196 (95% CI: 1.368-3.524), malignant disease with a HR of 1.724 (95% CI: 1.009-2.944), diabetes mellitus with a HR of 1.722 (95% CI: 1.109-2.674), and symptomatic status with a HR of 1.604 (95% CI: 1.027-2.507). The model showed good discrimination with a P < 0.001 (concordance index, 0.681; bootstrap corrected, 0.661) in the derivation data. The concordance index of external validation was 0.66 (P = 0.048), which indicates acceptable performance.We developed a nomogram with a visual scale method and prognostic information, and it is easy to use in clinical practice. The integer-base method may support communication between clinicians and patients before CAS to reduce the anxiety about making a treatment decision. However, insofar as older patients with multiple comorbidities are at high risk, the option of an alternative treatment strategy with medical therapy should be suggested. In the future, prospective tests should be performed to validate whether this model helps patients to prevent events.

Development of a nomogram to estimate the quality of life in asthmatic children using the Childhood Asthma Control Test

BACKGROUND

Pediatric Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (PAQLQ) provides detailed information on QoL in asthmatic children, whereas Childhood Asthma Control Test (C-ACT) Questionnaire is the most validated instrument for asthma control. No study assessed the relationship between C-ACT and QoL in children by means of those instruments. The aim of this study was to determine whether a QoL estimation is possible using the C-ACT questionnaire in asthmatic children.

METHODS

Medical history, spirometry, C-ACT, and PAQLQ were assessed in 144 (60% male) outpatient asthmatic children from September 2011 to November 2014. A generalized linear model (GLM) for the prediction of PAQLQ was obtained through a stepwise procedure starting from a full model with all C-ACT items, and predictive nomograms were created.

RESULTS

Fifty-five (38%) well-controlled (WC) asthma, 37 (26%) partially controlled (PC) asthma, and 52 (36%) uncontrolled asthma (UA) patients were enrolled. Persistent asthmatics (PA) were significantly more uncontrolled (p < 0.0001). A significant reduction in FEV1 , FEV1 /FVC, and FEF25-75 (p = 0.005, p < 0.0001, and p < 0.001, respectively) was found in WC vs. UA. Through a stepwise process, a reduced model showed a positive relationship between the PAQLQ and the four items of C-ACT. The regression equations for predicted PAQLQ were ln(PAQLQ) = 1.17 + 0.05*C-ACT2 + 0.03*C-ACT3 + 0.04*C-ACT6 + 0.03*C-ACT7. Thus, a nomogram was constructed.

CONCLUSION

The designed nomogram provides a highly predictive assessment of QoL in individual patients, facilitating a more comprehensive assessment of asthmatic children in usual clinical care.

A Prognostic Nomogram for Overall Survival of Patients After Hepatectomy for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

AIM

We hypothesized that a nomogram can accurately predict overall survival (OS) for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after hepatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A nomogram to predict OS based was developed using data from 185 ICC patients who had undergone hepatectomy. The nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), as well as testing calibration of predicted OS with observed OS for both internal and external cohorts.

RESULTS

Ten clinicopathological independent factors for OS prediction were selected for use in the nomogram. For internal validation, the calibration curve for probability of OS showed good agreement between prediction by the nomogram and actual observation. In three external validation cohorts, the nomogram discrimination was also superior to two other staging systems.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram integrating ten clinicopathological variables was developed that may assist in individual prognostic prediction of ICC after hepatectomy.

Possible contribution of IMRT in postoperative radiochemotherapy for rectal cancer: analysis on 1798 patients by prediction model

The evidence for adjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer after TME surgery is sparse. The aim of this study was to identify predicting factors of overall survival (OS) in these patients and combine them into a nomogram for individualized treatment. 1798 patients with pathologically staged II/III rectal adenocarcinoma treated by radical TME surgery from a single center's database were reviewed. The nomogram was derived by Cox proportional hazards regression. Its performance was assessed by concordance index and calibration curve in internal validation with bootstrapping. Pooled Cox model analysis identified age, sex, grade of histology, pathological T and N stage, residual tumor, concurrent radiochemotherapy (RTCT), adjuvant chemotherapy cycles (CT), radiotherapy (RT) unexpected interruption days and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) as significant covariates for 5-year OS (P<0.05). Postoperative RTCT, CT and IMRT all improved OS. The proposed model can predict 5-year OS with a C-index of 0.7105. IMRT significantly benefited OS in multivariate analysis (p=0.0441).In conclusion, our nomogram can predict 5-year OS after TME surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer with simple and effective advantage. This model may provide not only baseline OS estimate but also a tool for candidates selecting of adjuvant treatment in prospective studies.

Prognostic nomogram for refining the prognostication of the proposed 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system for nasopharyngeal cancer in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram for refining prognostication for patients with nondisseminated nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) staged with the proposed 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging system.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who had been investigated with magnetic resonance imaging, staged with the proposed 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system, and irradiated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy from June 2005 to December 2010 were analyzed. A cohort of 1197 patients treated at Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital was used as the training set, and the results were validated with 412 patients from Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors for developing a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability was assessed with the concordance index (c-index). A recursive partitioning algorithm was applied to the survival scores of the combined set to categorize the patients into 3 risk groups.

RESULTS

A multivariate analysis showed that age, gross primary tumor volume, and lactate dehydrogenase were independent prognostic factors for OS in addition to the stage group. The OS nomogram based on all these factors had a statistically higher bias-corrected c-index than prognostication based on the stage group alone (0.712 vs 0.622, P <.01). These results were consistent for both the training cohort and the validation cohort. Patients with <135 points were categorized as low-risk, patients with 135 to <160 points were categorized as intermediate-risk, and patients with ≥160 points were categorized as high-risk. Their 5-year OS rates were 92%, 84%, and 58%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram could improve prognostication in comparison with the TNM stage group. This could aid in risk stratification for individual NPC patients. Cancer 2016;122:3307-3315. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Prognostic value of a systemic inflammatory response index in metastatic renal cell carcinoma and construction of a predictive model

Inflammation act as a crucial role in carcinogenesis and tumor progression. In this study, we aim to investigate the prognostic significance of systemic inflammatory biomarkers in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and develop a survival predictive model. One hundred and sixty-one mRCC patients who had undergone cytoreductive nephrectomy were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2013. We created a systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) basing on pretreatment hemoglobin and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), and evaluated its associations with overall survival (OS) and clinicopathological features. Pretreatment hemoglobin and LMR both remained as independent factors adjusted for other markers of systemic inflammation responses and conventional clinicopathological parameters. A high SIRI seems to be an independent prognosis predictor of worse OS and was significantly correlated with aggressive tumor behaviors. Inclusion of the SIRI into a prognostic model including Fuhrman grade, histology, tumor necrosis and targeted therapy established a nomogram, which accurately predicted 1-year survival for mRCC patients. The SIRI seems to be a prognostic biomarker in mRCC patients. The proposed nomogram can be applied to predict OS of patients with mRCC after nephrectomy.

Preoperative nomogram to predict the likelihood of complications after radical nephroureterectomy

OBJECTIVES

To construct a nomogram based on preoperative variables to better predict the likelihood of complications occurring within 30 days of radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The charts of 731 patients undergoing RNU at eight academic medical centres between 2002 and 2014 were reviewed. Preoperative clinical, demographic and comorbidity indices were collected. Complications occurring within 30 days of surgery were graded using the modified Clavien-Dindo scale. Multivariate logistic regression determined the association between preoperative variables and post-RNU complications. A nomogram was created from the reduced multivariate model with internal validation using the bootstrapping technique with 200 repetitions.

RESULTS

A total of 408 men and 323 women with a median age of 70 years and a body mass index of 27 kg/m² were included. A total of 75% of the cohort was white, 18% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥2, 20% had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score >5 and 50% had baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) ≥ stage III. Overall, 279 patients (38%) experienced a complication, including 61 events (22%) with Clavien grade ≥ III. A multivariate model identified five variables associated with complications, including patient age, race, ECOG performance status, CKD stage and CCI score. A preoperative nomogram incorporating these risk factors was constructed with an area under curve of 72.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using standard preoperative variables from this multi-institutional RNU experience, we constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting peri-operative complications after RNU. Such information may permit more accurate risk stratification on an individual cases basis before major surgery.

A nomogram for predicting survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with metachronous metastasis

Patients with metachronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) differ significantly in survival outcomes. The aim of this study is to build a clinically practical nomogram incorporating known tumor prognostic factors to predict survival for metastatic NPC patients in epidemic areas.A total of 860 patients with metachronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. Variables assessed were age, gender, body mass index, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) T and N stages, World Health Organization (WHO) histology type, serum lactate dehydrogenase (sLDH) level, serum Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) level, treatment modality, specific metastatic location (lung/liver/bone), number of metastatic location(s) (isolated vs multiple), and number of metastatic lesion(s) in metastatic location(s) (single vs multiple). The independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) by Cox-regression model were utilized to build the nomogram.Independent prognostic factors for OS of metastatic NPC patients included age, UICC N stage, KPS, sLDH, number of metastatic locations, number of metastatic lesions, involvement of liver metastasis, and involvement of bone metastasis. Calibration of the final model suggested a c-index of 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.69). Based on the total point (TP) by nomogram, we further subdivided the study cohort into 4 groups. Group 1 (TP < 320, 208 patients) had the lowest risk of dying. Discrimination was visualized by the differences in survival between these 4 groups (group 2/group 1: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.24-2.09; group 3/group 1: HR = 2.20, 95%CI: 1.69-2.86; and group 4/group 1: HR = 3.66, 95%CI: 2.82-4.75).The developed nomogram can help guide the prognostication of patients with metachronous metastatic NPC in epidemic areas.

Plasma paracetamol concentration at hospital presentation has a dose-dependent relationship with liver injury despite prompt treatment with intravenous acetylcysteine

CONTEXT

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose is a common reason for emergency hospital admission in the UK and the leading cause of acute liver failure in the Western world. Currently, the antidote acetylcysteine (NAC) is administered at a dose determined only by body weight without regard for the body burden of paracetamol.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether higher plasma paracetamol concentrations are associated with increased risk of liver injury despite prompt treatment with intravenous NAC.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital for treatment with intravenous NAC following a single acute paracetamol overdose entered the study if NAC was commenced within 24 h of drug ingestion (N = 727 hospital presentations). Based on the plasma paracetamol concentration at first presentation to hospital, a series of nomograms were created: 0-100, 101-150, 151-200, 201-300, 301-500 and over 501 mg/L. The primary endpoints were acute liver injury (ALI - peak serum ALT activity >150 U/L and double the admission value) and hepatotoxicity (peak ALT >1000 U/L).

RESULTS

ALI and hepatotoxicity were more common in patients with higher admission plasma paracetamol concentrations despite NAC treatment (ALI: nomogram 0-100: 6%, 101-150: 3%, 151-200: 3%, 201-300: 9%, 301-500: 13%, over 501 mg/dL: 27%. p < 0.0001). This dose-response relationship between paracetamol concentration and ALI persisted even in patients treated with NAC within 8 h of overdose (nomogram 0-100: 0%, 101-150: 0.8%, 151-200: 2%, 201-300: 3.6%, 301-500: 12.5%, over 501mg/L: 33%. p < 0.0001) and in patients with normal ALT activity at first presentation (nomogram: 0-100: 0%, 101-150: 1.2%, 151-200: 1.5%, 201-300: 5.3%, 301-500: 10.8% p < 0.0001).

DISCUSSION

Patients with increased concentrations of plasma paracetamol at hospital presentation are at higher risk of liver injury even when intravenous NAC is promptly administered before there is biochemical evidence of toxicity.

CONCLUSION

This study supports theoretical concerns that the current intravenous dose of NAC may be too low in the setting of higher paracetamol exposure.

Prognostic significance of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and CRP in patients with nonmetastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma: a retrospective multicenter analysis

Background

Inflammation has been reported to be involved in carcinogenesis and cancer progression. This study was designed to explore the prognostic significance of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in nonmetastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) patients after treatment.

Methods

The retrospective study consisted of 985 patients with ccRCC who had undergone nephrectomy from 2005 to 2010 at multiple centers. The patients were divided into four groups using a quartile of LMR or CRP, and their associations with clinical characteristics and outcome were systematically estimated.

Results

Both low LMR and high CRP significantly diminished overall survival (OS) and metastasis-free survival (MFS) in patients with ccRCC. Further investigation indicated that LMR and CRP were independent prognostic factors of both OS and MFS. Integration of LMR and CRP into a predictive model, including significant variables in multivariate analysis, established a nomogram to predict accurately the 3- and 5-year survival for nonmetastatic patients with ccRCC.

Conclusion

LMR and CRP represent independent prognostic factors of OS and MFS for patients with ccRCC. Incorporation of LMR and CRP into the traditional TNM staging system may improve their predictive performance.

Predictors for Permanent Medialization Laryngoplasty in Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis

OBJECTIVE

Early differentiation of patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis (VFP) who recover from those who do not and consequently require permanent medialization laryngoplasty (ML) remains a challenge. The goal of this study is to identify factors that predict the need for ML.

STUDY DESIGN

Case series with chart review.

SETTING

Academic center.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A total of 507 records of patients with VFP were analyzed, of which 252 met criteria and were stratified according to whether or not they obtained ML. Demographic information and clinical features were analyzed to determine predictors of ML. A nomogram was generated according to the significance and utility of these parameters.

RESULTS

Of 252 patients, 86 underwent ML, and 166 did not. No differences in age or sex were observed between the ML and non-ML patients (P = .27 and P = .35, respectively). The most common cause of VFP was iatrogenic injury (62.79%, ML; 49.40%, non-ML). ML correlated with VFP secondary to neoplastic disease (odds ratio [OR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.01-4.53) and iatrogenic injury (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.01-2.94). ML had an inverse correlation with idiopathic VFP (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20-0.79). Patients in the ML group were more likely to have left-sided VFP, to have a history of aspiration, and to present ≥90 days from onset and less likely to have had temporary injection augmentation.

CONCLUSION

Clinical features may be used to predict the likelihood of a patient obtaining ML. Nomograms may be useful to counsel patients who would benefit from early definitive surgery.

Simple non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms and nomogram for detecting undiagnosed diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to develop a simple nomogram that can be used to predict the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the asymptomatic non-diabetic subjects based on non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk algorithms.

METHODS

Anthropometric data, plasma fasting glucose, full lipid profile, exercise habits, and family history of DM were collected from Chinese non-diabetic subjects aged 18-70 years. Logistic regression analysis was performed on a random sample of 2518 subjects to construct non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms for detection of undiagnosed DM; both algorithms were validated on data of the remaining sample (n = 839). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to assess the calibration and discrimination of the DM risk algorithms.

RESULTS

Of 3357 subjects recruited, 271 (8.1%) had undiagnosed DM defined by fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or 2-h post-load plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L after an oral glucose tolerance test. The non-laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 33, included age, body mass index, family history of DM, regular exercise, and uncontrolled blood pressure; the laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 37, added triglyceride level to the risk factors. Both algorithms demonstrated acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.229 and P = 0.483) and discrimination (AUC 0.709 and 0.711) for detection of undiagnosed DM.

CONCLUSION

A simple-to-use nomogram for detecting undiagnosed DM has been developed using validated non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk algorithms.

Nomograms for predicting prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in colorectal cancer patients after radical resection

Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. However, the prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC) has not been established. In this study, a retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with CRC in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) between April 1, 2007 and April 30, 2014, and 5,336 patients were identified eligible. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict OS and DFS, and Harrell's concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the 5-year OS was 79.2% and the 5-year DFS was 56.0% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤2.72 and >2.72), PLR (≤219.00 and >219.00), LMR (≤2.83 and >2.83) and AGR (<1.50 and ≥1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.72, PLR > 219.00, LMR ≤ 2.83 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased OS and DFS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that NLR, LMR and AGR were independent factors of OS (p = 0.047, p = 0.008 and p < 0.001, respectively) and DFS (p = 0.009, p < 0.001 and p = 0.008, respectively). In addition, nomograms on OS and DFS were established according to all significant factors, and c-indexes were 0.765 (95% CI: 0.744-0.785) and 0.735 (95% CI: 0.721-0.749), respectively. Nomograms based on OS and DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for CRC patients.

Selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in completely resected stage I non-small cell lung cancer: external validation of a Chinese prognostic risk model

BACKGROUND

The ability to sub-stratify survival within stage I is an important consideration as it is assumed that survival is heterogeneous within this sub-group. Liang et al. recently published a nomogram to predict post-operative survival in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery. The aim of our study is external validation of their published nomogram in a British cohort focusing on stages IA and IB to determine applicability in selection of adjuvant chemotherapy within stage I.

METHODS

Patient variables were extracted and the score individually calculated. Receiver operative characteristics curve (ROC) was calculated and compared with the original derivation cohort and the discriminatory ability was further quantified using survival plots by splitting our (external) validation cohort into three tertiles and Kaplan Meier plots were constructed and individual curves tested using Cox regression analysis on Stata 13 and R 3.1.2 respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 1,238 patients were included for analysis. For all patients from stage IA to IIB the mean (SD) score was 9.95 (4.2). The ROC score comparing patients who died versus those that remained alive was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.67). When divided into prognostic score tertiles, survival discrimination remained evident for the entire cohort, as well as those for stage IA and IB alone. The P value comparing survival between the middle and highest score with baseline (low score) was P=0.031 and P=0.034 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results of external validation suggested lower survival discrimination than reported by the original group; however discrimination between survival remained evident for stage I.

Prognostic nomogram for previously untreated patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy in those previously untreated patients.

METHODS

The clinicopathological data from 328 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy or not at the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital between 2006 and 2010 were retrospectively studied. Nomograms which predicted survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were established based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. To determine its predictive accuracy and discriminatory capacity, the concordance index and calibration curve were calculated after bootstrapping in the internal validation. An external validation of 76 patients in 2011 was prospectively studied at the same institution. To verify the performance of the nomogram, the comparison between the nomogram and Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system was conducted.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival was 43.1% in the primary cohort. Based on multivariate analyses, five independent prognostic variables including gender, tumor length, T stage, N stage and chemotherapy cycles were selected to build the nomograms to predict disease-free survival and overall survival. The concordance index of the nomogram to predict overall survival was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.79), which was superior to the predictive power of Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system (0.64) in the primary cohort. Meanwhile, the calibration curve showed good accuracy between predictive and actual overall survival. In the validation cohort, the concordance index (0.77) and calibration plot displayed favorable performances. The other nomogram to predict disease-free survival also performed well.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided individualized risk estimate of survival in patients after esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy.

Nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis rate of submucosal gastric cancer by analyzing clinicopathological characteristics associated with lymph node metastasis

BACKGROUND

To combine clinicopathological characteristics associated with lymph node metastasis for submucosal gastric cancer into a nomogram.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 262 patients with submucosal gastric cancer who underwent D2 gastrectomy between 1996 and 2012. The relationship between lymph node metastasis and clinicopathological features was statistically analyzed. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, we made a nomogram to predict the possibility of lymph node metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was also performed to assess the predictive value of the model. Discrimination and calibration were performed using internal validation.

RESULTS

A total number of 48 (18.3%) patients with submucosal gastric cancer have pathologically lymph node metastasis. For submucosal gastric carcinoma, lymph node metastasis was associated with age, tumor location, macroscopic type, size, differentiation, histology, the existence of ulcer and lymphovascular invasion in univariate analysis (all P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that age ≤50 years old, macroscopic type III or mixed, undifferentiated type, and presence of lymphovascular invasion were independent risk factors of lymph node metastasis in submucosal gastric cancer (all P<0.05). We constructed a predicting nomogram with all these factors for lymph node metastasis in submucosal gastric cancer with good discrimination [area under the curve (AUC) =0.844]. Internal validation demonstrated a good discrimination power that the actual probability corresponds closely with the predicted probability.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a nomogram to predict the rate of lymph node metastasis for submucosal gastric cancer. With good discrimination and internal validation, the nomogram improved individualized predictions for assisting clinicians to make appropriated treatment decision for submucosal gastric cancer patients.

Prostate-specific antigen density as a parameter for the prediction of positive lymph nodes at radical prostatectomy

Objective:

The aim was to determine the prognostic ability of Partin's tables for a patient collective undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) and to evaluate the association of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density (PSAD) and postoperative lymph node status.

Methods:

From 1999 to 2006, 393 consecutive patients underwent RP at our Urology department. Patients with Gleason scores < 6, clinical stages >T2c or neoadjuvant hormonal therapy were excluded. Preoperative PSA, biopsy results, digital rectal examination, and prostate size at transrectal ultrasound were recorded. Risk stratification according to the Partin scoring system was performed. Postoperative results were compared with preoperative risk estimation. Univariate and multivariate statistical analysis about prediction of postoperative lymph node status was performed.

Results:

Lymph node invasion (LNI) was found in 36 patients (9.16%). Kendall's rank correlation analysis revealed a significant association between the number of removed LN and LNI (P = 0.016). Patients with LNI had a significantly higher preoperative PSA and PSAD. Preoperative Gleason score was a significant predictor of LNI. The Partin tables' prediction of organ confined stages, extraprostatic extension, and seminal vesicle invasion was in line with the pathological findings in our collective. PSAD was a significant predictor of LNI in univariate and multivariate analysis.

Conclusion:

The most widely used nomogram is of high value in therapy decision-making, although it remains an auxiliary means. Considering the performance of lymph node dissection, surgeons should be aware of the specifics of the applied nomogram. PSAD appears as a useful adjunctive parameter for preoperative prostate risk estimation and warrants further evaluation.

Prediction model for early biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy based on the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score and the presence of secondary circulating prostate cells

OBJECTIVE

To establish a prediction model for early biochemical recurrence based on the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score and the presence of secondary circulating prostate cells (CPCs).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective single-centre study of men who underwent radical prostatectomy as monotherapy for prostate cancer. Clinicopathological findings were used to calculate the CAPRA score. At 90 days after surgery, blood was taken for CPC detection, mononuclear cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation, and CPCs were identified using immunocytochemistry. A CPC was defined as a cell expressing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) but not CD45. The CPC test results were defined as positive or negative. Patients were followed up for up to 5 years and biochemical recurrence was defined as a PSA level >0.2 ng/mL. The validity of the CAPRA score was calibrated using partial validation, and Cox proportional hazard regression to build three models: a CAPRA score model, a CPC model and a CAPRA/CPC combined model.

RESULTS

A total of 321 men, with a mean age of 65.5 years, participated in the study. After 5 years of follow-up the biochemical recurrence-free survival rate was 98.55%. For the model that included CAPRA score there was a hazard ratio (HR) of 7.66, for the CPC model there was an HR of 34.52 and for the combined model there were HRs of 2.60 for CAPRA score and 22.5 for CPC. Using the combined model, 23% of men changed from the low-risk to the high-risk category, or vice versa.

CONCLUSION

The incorporation of CPC detection significantly improved the model's discriminative ability in establishing the probability of biochemical recurrence; patients in the high-risk group according to CAPRA score who are negative for CPCs have a much better prognosis. The addition of CPC detection gives clinically significant information to aid the decision on who may be eligible for adjuvant therapy.

Evaluation of the Safety of a Vancomycin Nomogram Used to Achieve Target Trough Concentrations

BACKGROUND

Dosing vancomycin to achieve target concentrations of 15 to 20 mg/L has been recommended for select infections. To date, few vancomycin nomograms designed to target these higher concentrations have been published, and only one has been published in North America. Based on the success of this nomogram in developing empiric vancomycin regimens that achieve higher target trough concentrations with low rates of nephrotoxicity, a vancomycin nomogram targeting concentrations of 15 to 20 mg/L was developed and implemented at Emory University Hospital and Emory University Hospital Midtown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of a vancomycin-dosing nomogram on the incidence of vancomycin- associated nephrotoxicity and the time to achieve targeted trough concentrations.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of 200 patients who received vancomycin dosed to achieve target trough serum concentrations of 15 to 20 mg/L was performed.

RESULTS

After implementation of the vancomycin nomogram, no statistically significant difference in incidence of vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity was found (14% vs 16%; P = .197). Fewer patients had an initial vancomycin trough concentration within target range (29.1% vs 21.7%; P < .001). Adherence to the nomogram was poor, with only 41% of patients being dosed per the nomogram's recommendations.

CONCLUSION

Based on our results, implementation of a vancomycin dosing nomogram had no impact on the incidence of nephrotoxicity, and significantly fewer patients had an initial vancomycin trough within the target range of 15 to 20 mg/L. The clinical utility of a vancomycin dosing nomogram is still to be determined.

Prognostic score models for survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy and chemotherapy

PURPOSE

To establish accurate prognostic score models to predict survival for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Six hundred and seventy-five patients with newly diagnosed, nonmetastatic and histologically proven NPC who were treated with IMRT and chemotherapy were analyzed retrospectively. Samples were split randomly into a training set (n = 338) and a test set (n = 337) to analyze. All data from the training set were used to perform an extensive survival analysis and to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Data from the test set was used as an external validation set. Risk group stratification was proposed for the nomograms.

RESULTS

The nomograms are able to predict survival with a C-index for external validation of local recurrence-free survival (LRFS; 0.66, 95% CI: 0.58-0.74), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79), and disease-specific survival (DSS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67-0.79). The calibration curve for probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram for LRFS, DMFS and DSS were statistically higher than the C-index values of the AJCC seventh edition (P < 0.001). In the test set, the nomogram discrimination was also superior to the AJCC Staging systems (P < 0.001). The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic score models were successfully established and validated to predict LRFS, DMFS, and DSS over a 5-year period after IMRT and chemotherapy, which will be useful for individual treatment.

Nomogram line crossing after acetaminophen combination product overdose

BACKGROUND

The Rumack-Matthew nomogram predicts the risk of hepatotoxicity following acute acetaminophen overdose based on a serum concentration obtained ≥ 4-hour post-ingestion. Some patients with low-risk concentrations at 4 hours may have subsequent values indicating increased risk (above the nomogram treatment line), especially if coingestants that slow gastrointestinal motility are involved. The treatment line currently used to identify low risk patients in the United States, Canada, and Australia begins at 150 mcg/mL (993 μmol/L) and intersects at 18.75 mcg/mL (124.1 μmol/L) 16 hours post-ingestion.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of nomogram line crossing after acute overdose of acetaminophen combination products containing an opioid or antihistamine.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of hospitalized patients reported to a regional poison center (RPC) after acute overdose of a combination product containing an opioid or antihistamine. If a 4-hour acetaminophen concentration was detectable but below the nomogram treatment line, the RPC recommended repeat concentrations. Patients were entered into the study if at least one subsequent concentration was available. During follow-up calls hospital providers were queried regarding clinical features, treatment, and indicators of liver injury.

RESULTS

Over a 4-year period 76 patients met entry criteria. 5/76 (6.6%) had measureable acetaminophen concentrations below the treatment line at or close to 4-hour post-ingestion followed by values above the line obtained at 6.5-12.5 hours. Four of the five were treated with acetylcysteine and none developed hepatotoxicity. Four of the five had clinical features reported to the RPC suggesting toxicity from the opioid or antihistamine component.

CONCLUSION

After acute overdose of acetaminophen combination products, patients with detectable but non-toxic 4-hour acetaminophen concentrations should have repeat concentrations obtained in a time frame that would allow providers to initiate acetylcysteine treatment, if needed, without undue delay.

Factors Associated with Cataract in Korea: A Community Health Survey 2008-2012

PURPOSE

To investigate sociodemographic factors, health behaviors, and comorbidities associated with cataracts in a large, nationally representative Korean sample.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 715554 adults aged 40 years or older who participated in the 2008-2012 Community Health Survey. Significant risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis for self-reported cataract, and a nomogram for analysis of cataract risk was generated.

RESULTS

Roughly 11% of participants (n=88464) reported being diagnosed with cataracts by a doctor. Age was the most important independent risk factor [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.11, 99% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-1.11 for each increasing year]. Significant comorbidities with descending order of effect size (aOR, 99% CI), included diabetes mellitus (1.78, 1.71-1.85), osteoporosis (1.62, 1.56-1.69), arthritis (1.54, 1.48-1.59), hepatitis B infection (1.46, 1.31-1.63), atopic dermatitis (1.50, 1.33-1.69), angina (1.46, 1.35-1.57), allergic rhinitis (1.45, 1.36-1.55), dyslipidemia (1.38, 1.31-1.45), asthma (1.35, 1.26-1.44), and hypertension (1.23, 1.19-1.28). Subjects who sleep less than 6 hours/day were more likely to have cataract than subjects who sleep more than 9 hours/day as a reference group (aOR=1.22, 99% CI, 1.11-1.34).

CONCLUSION

While the most important cataract risk factor was age, the ten comorbidities mentioned above were also significant risk factors. Interestingly, longer duration of sleep was associated with a protective effect against cataract development.

Expression of Jagged1 predicts postoperative clinical outcome of patients with gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Clinical significance of Notch1 activation in gastric cancer has been elucidated in our previous study, but the role of its ligands remains obscure. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of Jagged1 expression in patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

We examined Jagged1 expression in tumor and nontumor tissues in retrospectively enrolled 302 patients with gastric cancer undergoing gastrectomy at Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University in 2008 by immunohistochemical staining. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic value of Jagged1 expression and its association with clinicopathological features. We created a predictive nomogram by integrating Jagged1 expression with the TNM staging system for overall survival of gastric cancer patients.

RESULTS

Jagged1 expression in gastric cancer was decreased compared with that in nontumor tissues. Low expression of Jagged1 in tumor and nontumor both predicted a dismal outcome. The Jagged1 risk derived from Jagged1 expression in tumor/nontumor tissue gave a further discrimination for the prognosis of gastric cancer patients. By Cox multivariate analysis, the Jagged1 risk was defined as an independent prognostic factor. The generated nomogram performed well in predicting the 3- and 5-year overall survival of gastric cancer patients.

CONCLUSION

Jagged1 is a potential prognostic biomarker for overall survival, which could be integrated with TNM stage to give a better risk stratification for gastric cancer patients.

A pretreatment nomogram for prediction of biochemical failure after primary cryoablation of the prostate

BACKGROUND

To create a predictive nomogram for biochemical failure following primary whole-gland cryoablation of the prostate for localized prostate cancer (LPCa).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2,242 patients from the Cryo On-Line Database (COLD) who were treatment naive and had undergone primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate for biopsy-confirmed LPCa. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves estimating 5 year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) were generated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis (CoxPH) was performed in order to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap technique.

RESULTS

Overall, the KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 72.8%. Stratified by D'Amico risk, The KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 82.6%, 71.1%, and 57.8% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Statistically significant predictors of biochemical outcomes from CoxPH analysis were pre-treatment prostate specific antigen (PTPSA) (P < 0.001), total prostate volume (P = 0.004), clinical stage (P = 0.034), and Gleason score (0.004). A nomogram for predicted 5 year biochemical progression free probability was constructed with a concordance index of 0.652. An online risk calculator was also generated.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first predictive nomogram for biochemical outcomes after primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate using socio-demographic, pretreatment, clinical, and prostate biopsy data. Our nomogram and online risk calculator can guide both patients and urologists for shared decision making regarding definitive treatment options.

Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire would be a primary screening tool of neuropsychiatric test detecting minimal hepatic encephalopathy of cirrhotic patients

AIM

The neuropsychiatric test (NP test) is a clinically available modality to confirm minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), but it takes at least 30 min for outpatients to complete. An easier primary screening tool of the NP test would be helpful to predict MHE in routine testing on the public.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study on 59 cirrhotic outpatients at Kobe University Hospital. Laboratory measurements, the NP test and the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire (CLDQ) were performed. As an indicator of MHE, cases with and without two abnormal subsets or more in the NP test were compared, and the independent risk factors were statistically examined. Predictive scoring systems of the risk of MHE were established using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

CLDQ worry (WO) was the best predictive factor of MHE diagnosed by the NP test (P = 0.006). The predictive model using CLDQ WO discriminated well between patients with and without MHE (area under the curve, 0.714; 95% confidence interval, 0.582-0.824). The predictive scores of MHE enable the patient-specific probability to be easily looked up.

CONCLUSION

CLDQ WO was shown to be an independent factor associated with the NP test to diagnose MHE in cirrhotic patients. The easy predictive scoring system of the risk of MHE using CLDQ WO could become a primary screening tool before performing the NP test in a social setting.

Decreased expression of mucin 18 is associated with unfavorable postoperative prognosis in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

MUC18 is correlated with tumor progression and metastasis in types of malignancy. But the role of MUC18 in clear cell renal cell carcinoma remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate the expression of MUC18 and its correlation with clinical outcomes in clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Immunohistochemical staining was performed in samples from 288 patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma. We used Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models to value the association between MUC18 expression and clinical outcome. Nomogram was constructed to predict overall survival at 5 and 8 years after nephrectomy.

RESULTS

MUC18 expression was significantly decreased in tumor compared to non-tumor tissue (P<0.001). Lower MUC18 expression in tumor predicted a shorter survival time (P=0.007). By multivariate cox analysis, MUC18 was defined as an independent prognostic factor (P=0.006). The nomogram performed better in predicting 5- and 8-year overall survival than the TNM stage alone in clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

CONCLUSION

MUC18 is an independent prognostic factor for clear cell renal cell carcinoma and could be incorporated with the other parameters to predict 5- and 8-year overall survival for clear cell renal cell carcinoma patients.

External validation and comparison of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology in two patient populations: a retrospective cohort study

The aim of this study is to validate and compare the predictive accuracy of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology among representative patients with prostate cancer. We previously developed a nomogram, as did Chun et al. In this validation study, patients originated from two centers: Toho University Sakura Medical Center (n = 214) and Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital (n = 216). We assessed predictive accuracy using area under the curve values and constructed calibration plots to grasp the tendency for each institution. Both nomograms showed a high predictive accuracy in each institution, although the constructed calibration plots of the two nomograms underestimated the actual probability in Toho University Sakura Medical Center. Clinicians need to use calibration plots for each institution to correctly understand the tendency of each nomogram for their patients, even if each nomogram has a good predictive accuracy.

A head to head comparison of nine tools predicting non-sentinel lymph node status in sentinel node positive breast cancer women

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of available tools predicting non-sentinel lymph node (non-SLN) status in women with SLN positive breast cancer and to see if they can be safely used in everyday clinical practice.

METHODS

Data of 220 women with breast cancer who underwent a SLN biopsy at the Máxima Medical Centre between 2000-2008 were analysed. Tools evaluated were: the models from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre, Stanford, Mayo, Cambridge, Gur, and MOU, and the scores from Saidi, Tenon, and MDA. Model performance was assessed using calibration, discrimination and Nagelkerke's explained variation.

RESULTS

The MSKCC nomogram showed best overall performance with best discrimination (AUC 0.69), second best calibration, and highest explained variation (31%). The 10% low risk threshold led to defining only 22% (38/176) of the women as being low risk while in fact 66% (116/176) were non-SLN negative. The false negative rate was 13% (5/38).

CONCLUSIONS

Current models for predicting non-SLN metastases in SLN positive breast cancer are not yet ready for implementation in general practice. Further research efforts should improve model performance in selecting patients or perhaps find a role in support in the paradigm shift to a "treat none unless" approach.

Development and external validation of nomograms predicting distant metastases and overall survival after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for patients with nonmetastatic osteosarcoma: A multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND

In this era of individualized cancer treatment, data that could be applied to predicting the survival of patients with osteosarcoma are still limited because of the rarity of the disease and the difficulty in accumulating a sufficient number of patients. Therefore, a multi‐institutional collaboration was implemented to develop and externally validate nomograms that would predict metastasis‐free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OAS) for patients with nonmetastatic osteosarcoma.

METHODS

This study retrospectively examined 1070 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for nonmetastatic osteosarcoma. Data from Japanese patients (n = 557) were used to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Six clinical and pathologic variables were built into nomograms estimating the probability of MFS and OAS 3 and 5 years after diagnosis. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrap resampling and was externally validated with an independent patient cohort from Korea (n = 513).

RESULTS

A patient's age, tumor site, and histologic response were found to have a stronger influence on MFS and OAS in the model than sex, tumor size, or pathologic fracture. The nomograms and calibration plots based on these results well predicted the probability of MFS (concordance index, 0.631) and OAS (concordance index, 0.679). The concordance indices for external validation were 0.682 for MFS and 0.665 for OAS.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms were externally validated and verified to be useful for the prediction of MFS and OAS and for the assessment of the postoperative prognosis. They can be used for counseling patients and for establishing appropriate surveillance strategies after surgery. Cancer 2015;121:3844–3852. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Prognostic nomograms for osteosarcoma have been developed and externally validated through multi‐institutional collaboration. These prognostic nomograms are the first to be developed and externally validated for osteosarcoma.

Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms.

RESULTS

For all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials.

A nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Inflammation plays an important role in cancer progression and prognosis. However, the prognostic values of inflammatory biomarkers in esophageal cancer (EC) were not established. In the present study, therefore, we initially used a nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

A total of 326 ESCC patients were included in this retrospective study. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR) were analyzed in the current study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analysis was also performed to evaluate the prognostic factors. A nomogram was established to predict the prognosis for CSS.

RESULTS

Patients were divided into 3 groups according to GPS (GPS 0, 1 and 2) and 2 groups according to NLR (≤3.45 and >3.45), PLR (≤166.5 and >166.5) and LMR (≤2.30 and >2.30). The 5-year CSS in patients with GPS 0, 1 and 2 were 49.2%, 26.8% and 11.9%, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, patients with NLR (>3.45), PLR (>166.5) and LMR (≤2.30) were significantly associated with decreased CSS, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002) and LMR (P=0.002) were independent prognostic factors in patients with ESCC. In addition, a nomogram was established according to all significantly independent factors for CSS. The Harrell's c-index for CSS prediction was 0.72.

CONCLUSION

GPS, PLR and LMR were potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with ESCC. The nomogram based on CSS could be used as an accurately prognostic prediction for patients with ESCC.

Development of ProCaRS Clinical Nomograms for Biochemical Failure-free Survival Following Either Low-Dose Rate Brachytherapy or Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Although several clinical nomograms predictive of biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS) for localized prostate cancer exist in the medical literature, making valid comparisons can be challenging due to variable definitions of biochemical failure, the disparate distribution of prognostic factors, and received treatments in patient populations. The aim of this investigation was to develop and validate clinically-based nomograms for 5-year BFFS using the ASTRO II “Phoenix” definition for two patient cohorts receiving low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) from a large Canadian multi-institutional database.

Methods and Materials: Patients were selected from the GUROC (Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada) Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification (ProCaRS) database if they received (1) LDR brachytherapy ≥ 144 Gy (n=4208) or (2) EBRT ≥ 70 Gy  (n=822). Multivariable Cox regression analysis for BFFS was performed separately for each cohort and used to generate clinical nomograms predictive of 5-year BFFS. Nomograms were validated using calibration plots of nomogram predicted probability versus observed probability via Kaplan-Meier estimates.

Results: Patients receiving LDR brachytherapy had a mean age of 64 ± 7 years, a mean baseline PSA of 6.3 ± 3.0 ng/mL, 75% had a Gleason 6, and 15% had a Gleason 7, whereas patients receiving EBRT had a mean age of 70 ± 6 years, a mean baseline PSA of 11.6 ± 10.7 ng/mL, 30% had a Gleason 6, 55% had a Gleason 7, and 14% had a Gleason 8-10. Nomograms for 5-year BFFS included age, use and duration of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), baseline PSA, T stage, and Gleason score for LDR brachytherapy and an ADT (months), baseline PSA, Gleason score, and biological effective dose (Gy) for EBRT.

Conclusions: Clinical nomograms examining 5-year BFFS were developed for patients receiving either LDR brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated EBRT and may assist clinicians in predicting an outcome. Future work should be directed at examining the role of additional prognostic factors, comorbidities, and toxicity in predicting survival outcomes.

Evaluation of a Pharmacist-Directed Vancomycin Dosing and Monitoring Pilot Program at a Tertiary Academic Medical Center

BACKGROUND

Consensus guidelines recommend vancomycin doses of 15 to 20 mg/kg every 8 to 12 hours in patients with normal renal function.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of a pharmacist-directed vancomycin dosing and monitoring pilot program on the percentage of patients receiving targeted weight-based dosing recommendations.

METHODS

This was a pre-/postevaluation study, approved by the institutional review board at our institution, comparing retrospectively reviewed vancomycin dosing practices hospital-wide between September 1 and September 30, 2010 to patients prospectively managed by a pharmacist-directed vancomycin pilot program between February 1 and April 26, 2011. All adult inpatients receiving intravenous vancomycin were included, unless patients had a creatinine clearance less than or equal to 60 mL/min or indication for therapy was surgical prophylaxis or febrile neutropenia. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients who received optimal vancomycin dosing defined as ≥30 mg/kg/d within 24 hours of initiation of therapy. Secondary outcomes included number of pharmacist interventions, length of therapy and incidence of nephrotoxicity while receiving vancomycin.

RESULTS

A total of 319 patients were analyzed, 161 preimplementation and 158 postimplementation. The percentage of patients who received optimal vancomycin dosing was significantly higher postimplementation of the pilot program, 96.8 versus 40.4% (P < 0.001). Pharmacist-directed interventions postimplementation, resulted in 50% more patients being dosed optimally (P < 0.001). Patients in the pilot program also had a shorter length of therapy (10.0 vs 8.4 days, P < 0.003) and a lower incidence of nephrotoxicity (8.7% vs 3.2%, P = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

This pharmacist-directed vancomycin pilot program significantly increased the percentage of patients optimally dosed according to consensus guidelines within 24 hours of initiation of therapy.

External validation of extended prostate biopsy nomogram

Introduction

Historical nomograms for the prediction of cancer on prostate biopsy, developed in the sextant biopsy era are no more accurate today. The aim of this study was an independent external validation of a 10-core biopsy nomogram by Chun et al. (2007).

Material and methods

A total of 322 patients who presented for their initial biopsy in a tertiary care center and had all the necessary data available were included in the retrospective analysis. To validate the nomogram, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were constructed.

Results

Area under the ROC curve calculated for our data using the nomogram was 0.773, similar to that reported originally. However, the nomogram systematically overestimated prostate cancer risk, which, for our data, could be resolved by subtracting 24 points from the total number of points of the nomogram.

Conclusions

The nomogram yielded overall good predictive accuracy as measured by the area under the ROC curve, but it systematically overestimated PC probability in individual patients. However, we showed how the nomogram could easily be adapted to our patient sample, resolving the bias issue.

The thy-box for sonographic assessment of the fetal thymus: nomogram and review of the literature

OBJECTIVES

To assess the feasibility and reproducibility of fetal thy-box visualization and to set normative data for the fetal thymus using this technique.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional observational study in pregnant women in their second trimester of pregnancy who attended the fetal medicine unit of the Hospital Gregorio Marañón from March 2011 to March 2013. Using thy-box sonography, which sets boundaries within the thymus, we assessed the feasibility of the thy-box and analyzed the factors related to its visualization. Measurements of the thy-box anteroposterior and transverse diameters were performed in healthy fetuses. Interobserver agreement was studied for both items. We set normative data for the thy-box diameters in singleton and twin pregnancies.

RESULTS

A total of 337 patients from 15 to 37 weeks were recruited after exclusion criteria. Thy-box feasibility was 74.2% (250 of 337). Nonfeasible cases were related to the fetal anterior spine and advanced gestational age. Assessment of the thy-box anteroposterior and transverse diameters was achievable in 250 fetuses. Interobserver agreement was good for feasibility and measurements (κ = 0.80). Linear growth of the thy-box in both diameters was observed in relation to gestational age during the second half of pregnancy. Thy-box diameters did not show significant differences according to the type of gestation, fetal sex, or chorionicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Thy-box diameters are achievable and reproducible by sonography in normal singleton and twin pregnancies during the second trimester; however, although feasible, the thy-box transverse diameter measurement is not reliable beyond 28 weeks. Further studies are needed to evaluate thy-box diameters in pathologic cases, especially conotruncal anomalies.

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate the risk of prostate cancer in Brazil

AIM

To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the probability of prostate cancer (PCa) in men undergoing opportunistic screening.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational study on a cohort of men screened for PCa at the Barretos Cancer Hospital (BCH) between January 2004 and December 2007. Patients' data were collected from their charts and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the power of various factor combinations as predictors of the PCa risk.

RESULTS

Out of the 1,313 screened men who underwent prostate biopsy, 553 (42.1%) had histopathological confirmation of PCa. The logistic regression analyses provided an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.737 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.678-0.796) for the best predictor combination. A nomogram was constructed to estimate the individual risk for PCa prior to biopsy.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram provides an easy and practical method, superior in performance to the traditional criteria, predicting the diagnosis of PCa with a reasonable accuracy.