Hospitalized exacerbations of COPD: risk factors and outcomes in the ECLIPSE cohort

Predictive Value of CCQ and its Subdomains for Hospitalized Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A 3-Year Observational Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

The prediction capacity of the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) and its functional, symptom, and mental subdomain for COPD hospitalized exacerbation were rarely studied.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the prognostic capacity of the total CCQ and its three subdomains for 3-year COPD hospitalized exacerbations.

METHODS

We analyzed the predictive ability of total CCQ score and its subdomains for hospitalized exacerbations in an observational cohort of 987 subjects with stable COPD from the RealDTC, an ongoing multicenter prospective study. Hospitalized exacerbations were prospectively collected every 6 month for a maximum of 3 years.

RESULTS

The total CCQ and its functional and symptom domain, but not the mental domain, were significantly associated with 3-year hospitalized exacerbations by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The predictive capacity of functional domain was similar to that of the total CCQ, but significantly stronger than the symptom and mental domain by ROC analysis (P < 0.05). ROC curves also showed that the AUC of exacerbation history combined with CCQ functional domain was larger than that of exacerbation history alone (P < 0.0001). Additionally, the predictive value of multivariable models that contains CCQ functional domain was significantly better than the corresponding model without CCQ functional domain (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The total CCQ and its functional and symptom domain were independent risk factors of 3-year hospitalized exacerbations. The prognostic capacity of the functional domain was similar to that of total CCQ, and was significantly stronger than the symptom and mental domain. The CCQ functional domain was able to increase the predictive power of exacerbation history and other multivariable prediction models, indicating it may have an important role in the multivariable prediction tool for hospitalized exacerbation, and its combination with other clinical variables might be used as a low-cost approach for assessments of the disease severity and severe exacerbation in COPD patients in the future.

The role of arterial stiffness as assessed by the cardio-ankle vascular index in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Arteriosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) can greatly affect the progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, standardized methods for evaluating arteriosclerosis in COPD have not been established. The cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) is a reliable marker of arterial stiffness and a potential marker for assessing arteriosclerosis. This study aimed to examine the associations between the CAVI and clinical parameters and to evaluate its predictive value for clinical outcomes in COPD.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study included patients with COPD who underwent CAVI assessment. The relationships between CAVI and clinical parameters were analysed. The patients were stratified into two groups according to the median CAVI. We examined whether an elevated CAVI was associated with clinical outcomes and evaluated its predictive value for poor clinical outcomes, including disability (modified Rankin Scale score ≥4) or death.

RESULTS

A total of 102 patients were analysed (median age: 74 years; 94.1 % men). The median CAVI was 9.4. The CAVI was positively correlated with the percentage of a low attenuation area on computed tomography and negatively correlated with FEV1 and body mass index, independent of age and the smoking index. An elevated CAVI (>9.4) was associated with severe exacerbations and poor clinical outcomes. A multivariate analysis identified the CAVI as an independent predictor of poor clinical outcomes, regardless of age, severity of dyspnoea, and airflow obstruction.

CONCLUSION

Arterial stiffness assessed by the CAVI is a useful marker of COPD severity and may serve as a prognostic indicator and therapeutic target for improving COPD management.

Associations between fibrinogen levels and the risk of all-cause mortality: a long-term cohort study

Although prior research has investigated the link between fibrinogen and mortality risk, there is a notable lack of long-term cohort studies. This study seeks to examine the relationship between plasma fibrinogen levels and all-cause mortality. Fibrinogen levels were divided into low and high groups based on the median and further categorized into quartiles. Kaplan-Meier analysis was employed for survival analysis, and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Our study included 5,690 participants, divided into a lower fibrinogen group (fibrinogen ≤ 370 mg/dL, N = 2,851) and a higher fibrinogen group (fibrinogen > 370 mg/dL, N = 2,839). The survival probability of the lower fibrinogen group was higher than that of the higher group (70.98% vs. 47.98%, P < 0.0001). All-cause mortality was higher in the higher fibrinogen group compared to the low fibrinogen group (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09-1.45, P = 0.002). Compared to Q1, mortality risk increased in Q2 (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.59, P = 0.05), Q3 (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.15-1.69, P < 0.001), and Q4 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.23-1.87, P < 0.001). Higher fibrinogen levels correlate with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality, suggesting fibrinogen is a potential biomarker for mortality risk.

Factors Influencing Mechanical Ventilation and Inpatient Palliative Care Utilization in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose

Palliative care is underutilized for severely ill patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experiencing significant symptoms during hospitalization. The impact of mechanical ventilation on inpatient palliative care utilization remains largely unexplored. In this study, we aimed to investigate inpatient palliative care utilization among hospitalized patients with COPD requiring mechanical ventilation and examine the associated risk factors and clinical outcomes.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective nested case-control study was conducted using population-based claims datasets from 2017 to 2021. It included 36,848 hospitalized patients with COPD aged 40 and above, of which 16,118 (43.74%) required mechanical ventilation. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between mechanical ventilation and inpatient palliative care utilization, adjusting for relevant covariates.

Results

Of the total cohort, 5,596 patients (15.19%) utilized inpatient palliative care, including 1,275 (7.91%) requiring mechanical ventilation. Age, duration of mechanical ventilation, comorbidity severity, and hospital type influenced inpatient palliative care use. Patients with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 1-2 and ≥3 were 24.06 and 51.59 times more likely, respectively, to receive palliative care compared to those with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0. Ventilated patients in medical centers or regional hospitals were more likely to receive palliative care than those in district hospitals. Patients on mechanical ventilation who received care for 8-30 days were over twice as likely to receive palliative care compared to those who received care for shorter durations.

Conclusion

Inpatient palliative care for patients with COPD was limited and varied based on the duration of mechanical ventilation and hospital type. To enhance patient-centered care, interdisciplinary teams should integrate palliative care throughout the illness journey.

Hematological Parameters Predicting Mortality in Patients with COPD Admitted to ICUs

Background

The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing in Saudi Arabia, yet there is a lack of studies on the usefulness of routine hematological parameters in predicting mortality.

Objective

To determine hematological parameters that can predict mortality in patients with COPD exacerbation admitted to intensive care units.

Materials and Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included patients with COPD admitted at intensive care units of Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs hospitals in Saudi Arabia between 2016 to 2021. Hematological parameters were used to predict mortality. ROC curve analysis was used to establish the threshold value of variables linked to risk of mortality and optimal cut-off points, and its sensitivity and specificity were determined.

Results

The study included 323 patients with COPD, of which 61% were females and the mean age was 72.7 (±12.7) years. The median length of hospital stay was 14 days (range: 6-26 days), and the overall mortality rate was 37.2%. After adjusting for gender and length of hospital stay in the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were age (OR: 1.029, 95% CI: 1.008-1.051; P = 0.007) and low mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) (OR: 0.985, 95% CI: 0.970-1.000; P = 0.047). The ROC curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of 320.5 g/L for MCHC, with an AUC of 0.576.

Conclusion

This study found that in patients with COPD exacerbation admitted to ICU, older age likely increases the risk of mortality, whereas low MCHC likely decreases the risk of mortality. Further large-scale studies are required to validate these findings.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the clinical features of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an observational cross-sectional study

The presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and COVID-19 infection is a detrimental combination for patients and can cause negative clinical consequences. The investigation aimed to compare sociodemographic and clinical parameters of COPD individuals hospitalized for exacerbations before and at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. An observational cross-sectional study including 222 patients with COPD was conducted in two stages: a survey and assessment of clinical and laboratory data of patients hospitalized from September 2022 to March 2023 (n=98) and processing of the medical histories of patients with COPD who received hospital treatment in 2017 and 2018 (n=124). A comparative analysis of patients who received inpatient treatment for COPD showed that the frequency of patients with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I was half as high after the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the individuals with GOLD IV were more frequent during the same period (p<0.05). Multiple regression analysis proved the effects of smoking status and previous COVID-19 infection on the health status of patients with COPD according to COPD Assessment Test data (p<0.05). There was an increase in the frequency of comorbid pathologies in the post-COVID period: hypertension, coronary heart disease, gastrointestinal diseases, anemia (p<0.05), and other diseases. This study highlights the significant influence of the COVID-19 infection on people with COPD, which manifested as impaired lung function and an increased incidence of comorbidities.

The role of FEV1/FVC in the prediction of acute exacerbation of COPD

BACKGROUND

Whether the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 s to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) can be used as a biomarker to predict the risk of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is unclear.

METHODS

To investigate the predictive role of FEV1/FVC for AECOPD, we analyzed data from an observational and multicenter cohort study of 2043 patients with COPD in KOREA. Exposures were post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC and/or percentage predicted FEV1 (FEV1%pred). The outcome was the development of AECOPD during the first year of follow-up.

RESULTS

During the first year of follow-up, the proportion of patients who developed AECOPD increased as FEV1/FVC decreased (P < 0.01). FEV1/FVC and FEV1%pred had similar predictive power for AECOPD, with optimal predictive cut-offs of approximately 0.5 for FEV1/FVC and 50 % for FEV1%pred. When the participants were classified into groups based on these cut-offs, compared with a high both-lung function group (FEV1/FVC≥0.5 and FEV1%pred≥50 %), the low-FEV1 group (FEV1/FVC≥0.5 and FEV1%pred<50) had a modestly increased risk of severe AECOPD (adjusted odds ratio[aOR] = 3.12; 95 % confidence interval[CI] = 1.59-6.16), while the risk of severe AECOPD was the highest in the low both-lung function group (FEV1%pred<50 % and FEV1/FVC<0.5) (aOR = 5.16; 95 % CI = 3.34-7.97).

CONCLUSIONS

FEV1/FVC is a spirometric biomarker predictive of AECOPD. In countries where FEV1%pred is not available for their population, FEV1/FVC could be used as a biomarker for assessing the risk of AECOPD. In countries where accurate FEV1%pred is available, both FEV1%pred and FEV1/FVC could be used to provide additional information to assess the risk of AECOPD.

KEY MESSAGE

This study showed that FEV1/FVC had similar predictive power for AECOPD compared with percentage predicted FEV1. Furthermore, the use of both FEV1 and FEV1/FVC provides additional information for the risk assessment of AECOPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations' management in Portuguese hospitals - EvaluateCOPDpt, a multicentre, observational, prospective study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

In order to improve the quality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients' care, better knowledge of clinical practice and the factors associated with patient outcomes are needed. This study aimed to evaluate the relation between clinical practice and the outcomes of patients admitted for COPD exacerbations in Portuguese hospitals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Observational, multicentre, prospective study with a 60-days follow-up period, in 11 hospitals, including patients aged ≥ 30 years, admitted to hospital for at least 24 hours due to an acute exacerbation of COPD. Demographic and clinical data were collected, including sex, age, smoking habits, hospitalisations, pulmonary function, comorbidities, COPD symptoms, and treatment. Sixty days after discharge, COPD exacerbations management, outcome measures, and readmission data were evaluated through a structured phone follow-up interview.

RESULTS

196 patients were included (85.7% male, mean age 71.2 years), the majority admitted through the emergency service. Ex-smokers and current smokers accounted for 51% and 36%, respectively. On admission, 72.4% were on LAMA, 54.6% on LABA, and 45.5% were on LABA/LAMA. Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) were used in 37.3% and systemic steroids (SCS) in 10.3%. 35.7 % had had at least one exacerbation, with hospitalisation, in the previous year. There was no spirometry data for 23.2%. On hospitalisation, 98.5% of patients were treated with oxygen and 38.3% with non-invasive ventilation. Additionally, 93.4% used SCS and 60.2% ICS. Antibiotics were administered to 85.2%. 95.4% of patients were discharged; 9 died, 5 of whom had a COPD-related death. The median length of stay was 12 days for discharged patients and 33 days for patients who died. At discharge, 79.1% were prescribed with LAMA, 63.6% SCS, 61.5% LABA and 55.6% LAMA+LABA. 26,2% were prescribed with ICS+LABA+LAMA. At follow-up, 44.4% had a scheduled medical appointment within the 60 days after being discharged, and 28.3% were later readmitted due to exacerbation, of whom 52.8% were hospitalised.

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of COPD, particularly in exacerbations, is directly related to impaired lung function and quality of life, mortality, and significant health system costs. Knowledge about COPD exacerbations' management in acute hospital admissions in Portugal may help stimulate a national discussion and review of existing data to engage clinicians, policymakers, managers, and patients, raising awareness and promoting action on COPD.

Long-term inhaled corticosteroid treatment in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and a recent hospitalised exacerbation: The ICSLIFE pragmatic, randomised controlled study

INTRODUCTION

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) frequently have cardiovascular comorbidities, increasing the risk of hospitalised COPD exacerbations (H-ECOPDs) or death. This pragmatic study examined the effects of adding an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) to long-acting bronchodilator(s) (LABDs) in patients with COPD and cardiac comorbidities who had a recent H-ECOPD.

METHODS

Patients >60 years of age with COPD and ≥1 cardiac comorbidity, within 6 months after discharge following an H-ECOPD, were randomised to receive LABD(s) with or without ICS, and were followed for 1 year. The primary outcome was the time to first rehospitalisation and/or all-cause death.

RESULTS

The planned number of patients was not recruited (803/1032), limiting the strength of the conclusions. In the intention-to-treat population, 89/403 patients (22.1 %) were rehospitalised or died in the LABD group (probability 0.257 [95 % confidence interval 0.206, 0.318]), vs 85/400 (21.3 %) in the LABD+ICS group (0.249 [0.198, 0.310]), with no difference between groups in time-to-event (hazard ratio 1.116 [0.827, 1.504]; p = 0.473). All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were lower in patients receiving LABD(s)+ICS, with relative reductions of 19.7 % and 27.4 %, respectively (9.8 % vs 12.2 % and 4.5 % vs 6.2 %), although the groups were not formally statistically compared for these endpoints. Fewer patients had adverse events in the LABD+ICS group (43.0 % vs 50.4 %; p = 0.013), with 4.9 % vs 5.4 % reporting pneumonia adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest addition of ICS to LABDs did not reduce the time-to-combined rehospitalisation/death, although it decreased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. ICS use was not associated with an increased risk of adverse events, particularly pneumonia.

Long-term outcomes in patients with COPD treated with non-invasive ventilation for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure

PURPOSE

Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (COPD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality across the world. We evaluated survival over 9 years in a cohort of patients with COPD requiring acute inpatient non-invasive ventilation (NIV). We analyzed prognostic indices to evaluate if they were associated with mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients who were admitted to St. James's Hospital respiratory ward with COPD and acute hypercapnic respiratory failure who required NIV over a 12-month period and followed their outcomes over 9 years. We investigated the association between survival and potential prognostic variables using univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. We evaluated the association between survival and the following parameters: age, gender, multiple admissions requiring NIV (> 1 admission in within 12 months of index presentation), home NIV use preadmission, initial arterial blood gas pH, days spent on NIV, serum albumin and serum albumin to serum CRP ratio at admission.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine patients with COPD and acute hypercapnic respiratory failure were identified over a 12-month period from January to December 2011. Survival at 1, 2, 5 and 9 years was 65% (n = 64), 42% (n = 42), 25% (n = 25) and 21% (n = 21), respectively. Increasing age (p value < 0.001) and a lower serum albumin (p value < 0.005) were associated with a higher mortality. There was a trend towards improved survival in the group who were treated with home NIV prior to admission compared to no NIV therapy at home but this did not reach statistical significance (Fig. 3, p value = 0.088).

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the long-term mortality in patients with COPD admitted with hypercapnic respiratory failure requiring NIV and correlates with prior studies. Increasing age and lower serum albumin were associated with increased mortality. Home NIV may have a protective long-term survival benefit in patients with COPD who have been admitted for acute NIV.

Investigating effectiveness of adherence of long-acting bronchodilator in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with influenza infection

Objectives

Long-acting bronchodilators are important treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adequate medication adherence decreases COPD exacerbations, especially in reducing the hazard of influenza infection. Therefore, the study aim was to evaluate adherence of long-acting bronchodilator treatment and the risk of influenza in patients with COPD.

Methods

This retrospective nested case-control study included patients with newly diagnosed COPD from 2012 to 2018. Cases with influenza infection were defined and matched to 2 randomly selected controls. The influenza infection date was the index date. Conditional logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratios of influenza from proportion of days covered (PDC) of long-acting bronchodilators measured in one year before the index date. Adherence was divided into high adherence (PDC ≥80 %) and low adherence (PDC <80 %).

Results

This population-based study included 6,073 patients in the case group and 12,146 in the control group. High PDC of long-acting bronchodilators in COPD was associated with a 0.811-fold (95 % confidence interval: 0.754-0.883, P < 0.001) decreased influenza risk, where 906 (14.92 %) high PDC in case and 2,130 (17.54 %) in control. Low PDC without influenza vaccination in COPD patients is associated with increased influenza risk, regardless of exposure period.

Conclusion

In Taiwan, COPD patients with high PDC were associate with lower COPD exacerbation. Different long-acting bronchodilator exposure or dose need to be further investigated in COPD patients.

Endothelial injury and decline in lung function in persons living with HIV: a prospective Danish cohort study including 698 adults

Objectives

Endothelial injury may promote declining lung function. We aimed to investigate in well-treated persons living with HIV (PLWH) whether elevated levels of thrombomodulin (TM) and syndecan-1 (SDC1) are associated with excess lung function decline and worsening dyspnea.

Methods

A prospective cohort study comprising patients from the Copenhagen municipality. We included 698 PLWH with undetectable viral load. Biomarkers and demographics were measured at baseline, spirometry [forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)] and dyspnea score both at baseline and 2-year follow-up.Both biomarkers were dichotomized at the 3rd quartile. Decline in lung function was estimated using a linear mixed model with patient-specific random effect. Increase in dyspnea score was estimated using a general mixed logistic regression model.

Results

We did not find an association between elevated SDC1 or TM and an excess decline in neither FEV1: SDC1: 4.5 mL/year (95% CI: -3.9-12.9, p = 0.30), TM: 2.2 mL/year (95% CI: -6.0-10.4, p = 0.60) nor FVC: SDC1: 4.1 mL/year (95% CI: -6.0-14.2, p = 0.42), TM: 1.4 mL/year (95% CI: -8.3-11.1, p = 0.78). A subgroup analysis of never-smokers was consistent with the main analysis.Likewise, we did not find any association between elevated SDC1 and TM and increase in dyspnea score: SDC1: OR 1.43 (95% CI: 0.89-2.30, p = 0.14), TM: OR 1.05 (95% CI: 0.65-1.71, p = 0.26).

Conclusion

We did not find a significant association between elevated biomarkers of endothelial injury and decline in lung function nor dyspnea.

CRP, Fibrinogen, White Blood Cells, and Blood Cell Indices as Prognostic Biomarkers of Future COPD Exacerbation Frequency: The TIE Cohort Study

Background/Objective: Systemic inflammation is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and evidence suggests that inflammatory biomarkers can predict acute exacerbations (AECOPDs). The aim of this study was to analyse whether C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, white blood cell count (WBC), or the blood cell indices PLR (platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio), SII (systemic immune inflammation index), SIRI (systemic inflammation response index), and AISI (aggregate index of systemic inflammation) can predict future AECOPDs. Methods: In the Tools Identifying Exacerbations (TIE) cohort study, participants with spirometry-confirmed COPD were recruited from primary and secondary care in three Swedish regions and assessed during a stable phase of COPD. AECOPD frequency during the three-year follow-up was reviewed in medical records. Associations were analysed via ordinal logistic regressions. Results: Of the 571 participants, 46% had ≥1 AECOPD during follow-up, and the mean ± SD AECOPD frequency was 0.63 ± 1.2/year. In unadjusted analyses, high levels of CRP (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.29-2.67), fibrinogen (2.09, 1.38-3.16), WBCs (2.18, 1.52-3.13), SII (1.52, 1.05-2.19), SIRI (1.76, 1.23-2.52), and AISI (1.99, 1.38-2.87) were associated with a higher AECOPD frequency. After adjustment for AECOPD history, age, sex, smoking, body mass index, COPD Assessment Test score, lung function, and inhaled corticosteroid use, associations remained for high levels of CRP (adjusted odds ratio of 1.64; 95% CI of 1.08-2.49), fibrinogen (1.55; 1.07-2.24), and WBC (1.65; 1.10-2.47). Conclusions: CRP, fibrinogen, and WBC, assessed during stable-phase COPD, enhanced AECOPD prediction, whereas PLR, SII, SIRI, and AISI did not.

Association between Increased Risk of Pneumonia with ICS in COPD: A Continuous Variable Analysis of Patient Factors from the IMPACT Study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the proven benefits of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)-containing triple therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), clinicians limit patient exposure to ICS due to the risk of pneumonia. However, there are multiple factors associated with the risk of pneumonia in patients with COPD. This post hoc analysis of IMPACT trial data aims to set the risks associated with ICS into a context of specific patient-related factors that contribute to the risk of pneumonia.

METHODS

The 52-week, double-blind IMPACT trial randomized patients with symptomatic COPD and ≥1 exacerbation in the prior year 2:2:1 to once-daily fluticasone furoate (FF)/umeclidinium (UMEC)/vilanterol (VI), FF/VI or UMEC/VI. Annual rate of on-treatment pneumonias in the intent-to-treat population associated with age, body mass index (BMI), percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and blood eosinophil count (BEC) was evaluated.

RESULTS

This analysis revealed that the annual rate of pneumonia showed the lowest risk at the age of 50 years. The 95% confidence intervals (CI) between ICS-containing and non-ICS containing treatments diverged in ages > 63 years, suggesting a significantly increased ICS-related risk in older patients. In contrast, the annual rate of pneumonia rose in both groups below BMI of 22.5 kg/m2, but above that, there was no relationship to pneumonia rate and no differential effect between the two groups. The relationship between BEC and pneumonia was flat up to > 300/µL cells with ICS-containing treatment and then rose. In contrast, the rate of pneumonia with non-ICS containing treatment appeared to increase at a lower level of BEC (~ 200/µL).

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence of a differential effect of older age, lower BMI, lower FEV1 and BEC on the pneumonia rate between ICS-containing and non-ICS containing treatments. This analysis points to the need for a balanced approach to risk versus benefit in the use of ICS-containing treatments in COPD.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

IMPACT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02164513.

Machine learning approaches for practical predicting outpatient near-future AECOPD based on nationwide electronic medical records

In this research, we aimed to harness machine learning to predict the imminent risk of acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients. Utilizing retrospective data from electronic medical records of two Taiwanese hospitals, we identified 26 critical features. To predict 3- and 6-month AECOPD occurrences, we deployed five distinct machine learning algorithms alongside ensemble learning. The 3-month risk prediction was best realized by the XGBoost model, achieving an AUC of 0.795, whereas the XGBoost was superior for the 6-month prediction with an AUC of 0.813. We conducted an explainability analysis and found that the episode of AECOPD, mMRC score, CAT score, respiratory rate, and the use of inhaled corticosteroids were the most impactful features. Notably, our approach surpassed predictions that relied solely on CAT or mMRC scores. Accordingly, we designed an interactive prediction system that provides physicians with a practical tool to predict near-term AECOPD risk in outpatients.

Longitudinal BMI change and outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: a nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between longitudinal body mass index (BMI) change and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not fully investigated.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 116,463 COPD patients aged ≥ 40, with at least two health examinations, one within 2 years before and another within 3 years after COPD diagnosis (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019). Associations between BMI percentage change with all-cause mortality, primary endpoint, and initial severe exacerbation were assessed.

RESULTS

BMI decreased > 5% in 14,728 (12.6%), while maintained in 80,689 (69.2%), and increased > 5% in 21,046 (18.1%) after COPD diagnosis. Compared to maintenance group, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality was 1.70 in BMI decrease group (95% CI:1.61, 1.79) and 1.13 in BMI increase group (95% CI:1.07, 1.20). In subgroup analysis, decrease in BMI showed a stronger effect on mortality as baseline BMI was lower, while an increase in BMI was related to an increase in mortality only in obese COPD patients with aHRs of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.36). The aHRs for the risk of severe exacerbation (BMI decrease group and increase group vs. maintenance group) were 1.30 (95% CI:1.24, 1.35) and 1.12 (95% CI:1.07, 1.16), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A decrease in BMI was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in a dose-dependent manner in patients with COPD. This was most significant in underweight patients. Regular monitoring for weight loss might be an important component for COPD management.

Association between admission heart rate and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory failure: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) combined with respiratory failure (RF) is a chronic respiratory disease that seriously endangers human health. This study aimed to specifically evaluate the relationship between admission heart rate (AHR) and in-hospital mortality in patients with combined AECOPD and RF to better inform clinical treatment.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 397 patients admitted to a Chinese hospital between January 2021 and March 2023. The primary outcome measure was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), and curve fitting and threshold effect were performed to address nonlinear relationships.

RESULTS

In total, 397 patients with AECOPD/RF were screened. The mean (± SD) age of the study cohort was 72.6 ± 9.5 years, approximately 49.4% was female, and the overall in-hospital mortality rate was 5%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and smooth curve fitting revealed a nonlinear association between AHR and in-hospital mortality in the study population, with 100 beats/min representing the inflection point. Left of the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 0.474 (95% CI 0.016 ~ 13.683; p = 0.6635). On the right side, each 1 beat/min increase in AHR resulted in an effect size (OR) of 1.094 (95% CI 1.01 ~ 1.186; p = 0.0281).

CONCLUSIONS

Results of the present study demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between AHR and in-hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD/RF. When AHR was < 100 beats/min, it was not statistically significant; however, AHR > 100 beats/min was a predictor of potential mortality, which increased by 9.4% for every 1 beat/min increase in AHR.

Physical activity and outcomes in Japanese patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: From the Ishinomaki COPD Network registry

BACKGROUND

Low physical activity levels are associated with an increased risk of exacerbations and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, evidence is limited in a population with a low frequency of exacerbations, such as the Japanese population. This study investigated the effects of physical activity on outcomes in Japanese patients with COPD.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study in a cohort of Japanese patients with COPD between April 2018 and July 2020. Characteristics, frequency of exacerbations, and mortality were assessed during the 1-year follow-up period. Logistic regression analysis evaluated the relationship between physical activity and outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 309 patients (294 males; median age, 75 years) with stable COPD were included, and 307 completed follow-up. Patients with lower levels of physical activity were older, and showed increased airflow obstruction, limited exercise capacity, increased dyspnea, depressive state, poor health status, muscle weakness, and more information needs for the disease. Patients with high levels of physical activity had a lower risk of exacerbation, including hospital admission, compared to those with low levels of activity (odds ratio [OR], 0.46; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.97; and OR, 0.21; 95 % CI, 0.09-0.50, respectively). High physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (OR, 0.07; 95 % CI, 0.01-0.55) and respiratory mortality (OR, 0.16; 95 % CI, 0.02-1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings showed that higher physical activity is associated with better clinical outcomes, even in a COPD population with a low frequency of exacerbations.

Association Between Rome Classification Among Hospitalized Patients With COPD Exacerbations and Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Rome proposal updated the definition of exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD). However, such severity grade has not yet demonstrated intermediate-term clinical relevance.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the association between the Rome severity classification and short-term and intermediate-term clinical outcomes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively grouped hospitalized patients with ECOPD according to the Rome severity classification (ie, mild, moderate, severe). Baseline, clinical, microbiologic, gas analysis, and laboratory variables were collected. In addition, data about the length of hospital stay and mortality (in-hospital and a follow-up time line from 6 months until 3 years) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 347 hospitalized patients, 39% were categorized as mild, 31% were categorized as moderate, and 30% were categorized as severe. Overall, patients with severe ECOPD had an extended length of hospital stay. Although in-hospital mortality was similar among groups, patients with severe ECOPD presented a worse prognosis in all follow-up time points. The Kaplan-Meier curves show the role of the severe classification in the cumulative survival at 1 and 3 years (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test, P = .032 and P = .004, respectively). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher risk of death at 1 year when patients presented a severe (hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65) or moderate grade (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.97) compared with a mild grade. Older patients (aged ≥ 80 years), patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy, or patients reporting previous ECOPD episodes had a higher mortality risk. A BMI between 25 and 29 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk.

INTERPRETATION

The Rome classification makes it possible to discriminate patients with a worse prognosis (severe or moderate) until a 3-year follow-up.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models for Exacerbation, Frequent Exacerbations and Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Registry Study in North China

In COPD patients, exacerbation has a detrimental influence on the quality of life, disease progression and socioeconomic burden. This study aimed to develop and validate models to predict exacerbation, frequent exacerbations and severe exacerbations in COPD patients. We conducted an observational prospective multicenter study. Clinical data of all outpatients with stable COPD were collected from Beijing Chaoyang Hospital and Beijing Renhe Hospital between January 2018 and December 2019. Patients were followed up for 1 year. The data from Chaoyang Hospital was used for modeling dataset, and that of Renhe Hospital was used for external validation dataset. The final dataset included 456 patients, with 326 patients as the model group and 130 patients as the validation group. Using LABA + ICS, frequent exacerbations in the past year and CAT score were independent risk factors for exacerbation in the next year (OR = 2.307, 2.722 and 1.147), and FVC %pred as a protective factor (OR = 0.975). Combined with chronic heart failure, frequent exacerbations in the past year, blood EOS counts and CAT score were independent risk factors for frequent exacerbations in the next year (OR = 4.818, 2.602, 1.015 and 1.342). Using LABA + ICS, combined with chronic heart failure, frequent exacerbations in the past year and CAT score were independent risk factors for severe exacerbations in the next year (OR = 1.950, 3.135, 2.980 and 1.133). Based on these prognostic models, nomograms were generated. The prediction models were simple and useful tools for predicting the risk of exacerbation, frequent exacerbations and severe exacerbations of COPD patients in North China.

Controlling Nutritional Status Score as a Predictor for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation Risk in Elderly Patients

The Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is a simple screening tool able to assess poor nutritional status as well as to predict clinical adverse outcomes in different clinical settings. No data are available in older patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study aimed to investigate the CONUT score as a predictor of frequent exacerbations. We retrospectively enrolled 222 patients aged 65 years or older, classified in two groups according to the number of exacerbations (or hospitalizations because AECOPD) during the previous year. The two groups were further divided according to low (<5) or high (≥5) CONUT scores. A total of 67.2% of frequent exacerbators had a high CONUT score. These patients exhibited a significantly higher CAT score, lower FEV1 percentage value, and higher prevalence of severe GOLD stages compared to those with low CONUT. Multivariate analysis showed that a CONUT score ≥ 5 was the best independent predictor (OR 20.740, p < 0.001) of the occurrence of ≥2 exacerbations (or 1 hospitalization) during the previous year. The CONUT score seemed to have a high prognostic value for frequent exacerbations for COPD in older patients. The predictive role of different CONUT score cut-off values needs to be validated in larger COPD populations in future multi-center, prospective clinical studies.

2023 Canadian Thoracic Society Guideline on Pharmacotherapy in Patients With Stable COPD

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patient care must include confirming a diagnosis with postbronchodilator spirometry. Because of the clinical heterogeneity and the reality that airflow obstruction assessed by spirometry only partially reflects disease severity, a thorough clinical evaluation of the patient should include assessment of symptom burden and risk of exacerbations that permits the implementation of evidence-informed pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. This guideline provides recommendations from a comprehensive systematic review with a meta-analysis and expert-informed clinical remarks to optimize maintenance pharmacologic therapy for individuals with stable COPD, and a revised and practical treatment pathway based on new evidence since the 2019 update of the Canadian Thoracic Society (CTS) Guideline. The key clinical questions were developed using the Patients/Population (P), Intervention(s) (I), Comparison/Comparator (C), and Outcome (O) model for three questions that focuses on the outcomes of symptoms (dyspnea)/health status, acute exacerbations, and mortality. The evidence from this systematic review and meta-analysis leads to the recommendation that all symptomatic patients with spirometry-confirmed COPD should receive long-acting bronchodilator maintenance therapy. Those with moderate to severe dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council ≥ 2) and/or impaired health status (COPD Assessment Test ≥ 10) and a low risk of exacerbations should receive combination therapy with a long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ẞ2-agonist (LAMA/LABA). For those with a moderate/severe dyspnea and/or impaired health status and a high risk of exacerbations should be prescribed triple combination therapy (LAMA/LABA/inhaled corticosteroids) azithromycin, roflumilast or N-acetylcysteine is recommended for specific populations; a recommendation against the use of theophylline, maintenance systemic oral corticosteroids such as prednisone and inhaled corticosteroid monotherapy is made for all COPD patients.

Risk Factors for Recurrent Exacerbations in the General-Practitioner-Based Swiss Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Cohort

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often suffer from acute exacerbations. Our objective was to describe recurrent exacerbations in a GP-based Swiss COPD cohort and develop a statistical model for predicting exacerbation.

METHODS

COPD cohort demographic and medical data were recorded for 24 months, by means of a questionnaire-based COPD cohort. The data were split into training (75%) and validation (25%) datasets. A negative binomial regression model was developed using the training dataset to predict the exacerbation rate within 1 year. An exacerbation prediction model was developed, and its overall performance was validated. A nomogram was created to facilitate the clinical use of the model.

RESULTS

Of the 229 COPD patients analyzed, 77% of the patients did not experience exacerbation during the follow-up. The best subset in the training dataset revealed that lower forced expiratory volume, high scores on the MRC dyspnea scale, exacerbation history, and being on a combination therapy of LABA + ICS (long-acting beta-agonists + Inhaled Corticosteroids) or LAMA + LABA (Long-acting muscarinic receptor antagonists + long-acting beta-agonists) at baseline were associated with a higher rate of exacerbation. When validated, the area-under-curve (AUC) value was 0.75 for one or more exacerbations. The calibration was accurate (0.34 predicted exacerbations vs 0.28 observed exacerbations).

CONCLUSION

Nomograms built from these models can assist clinicians in the decision-making process of COPD care.

The effect of an integrated palliative care intervention on quality of life and acute healthcare use in patients with COPD: Results of the COMPASSION cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

COPD causes high morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the need for palliative care.

AIM

To assess the effectiveness of palliative care in patients with COPD.

DESIGN

Cluster randomized controlled trial (COMPASSION study; Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NL7644, 07-04-2019). Healthcare providers within the intervention group were trained to implement palliative care components into routine COPD care. Patients completed questionnaires at baseline, after 3 and 6 months; medical records were assessed after 12 months. The primary outcome was quality of life (FACIT-Pal). Secondary outcomes were anxiety, depression, spiritual well-being, satisfaction with care, acute healthcare use, documentation of life-sustaining treatment preferences and place of death. Generalized linear mixed modelling was used for analyses.

SETTING

Eight hospital regions in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients hospitalized for an acute exacerbation of COPD and positive ProPal-COPD score.

RESULTS

Of 222 patients included, 106 responded to the questionnaire at 6 months. Thirty-six of 98 intervention patients (36.7%) received the intervention. Intention-to-treat-analysis showed no effect on the primary outcome (adjusted difference: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: -5.44 to 7.60). In the intervention group, fewer intensive care admissions for COPD took place (adjusted odds ratio: 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.03-0.81) and strong indications were found for fewer hospitalizations (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that palliative care improves quality of life in patients with COPD. However, it can potentially reduce acute healthcare use. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic led to suboptimal implementation and insufficient power, and may have affected some of our findings.

Development of the ESEx index: a tool for predicting risk of recurrent severe COPD exacerbations

Background

In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), multiple recurrent severe exacerbations that require hospitalization can occur. These events are strongly associated with death and other clinical complications.

Objectives

We aimed to develop a prognostic model that could identify patients with COPD that are at risk of multiple recurrent severe exacerbations within 3 years.

Design

Prospective cohort.

Methods

The derivation cohort comprised patients with stable, moderate-to-severe COPD. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to develop the final model. Based on regression coefficients, a simplified index (ESEx) was established. Both, model and index, were assessed for predictive performance by measuring discrimination and calibration.

Results

Over 3 years, 16.4% of patients with COPD experienced at least three severe recurrent exacerbations. The prognostic model showed good discrimination of high-risk patients, based on three characteristics: the number of severe exacerbations in the previous year, performance in the five-repetition sit-to-stand test, and in the 6-minute-walk test. The ESEx index provided good level of discrimination [areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs): 0.913].

Conclusions

The ESEx index showed good internal validation for the identification of patients at risk of three recurrent severe COPD exacerbations within 3 years. These tools could be used to identify patients who require early interventions and motivate patients to improve physical performance to prevent recurrent exacerbations.

Reducing the Risk of Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease With Pharmacotherapy: A Narrative Review

In 2020, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was the fifth leading cause of death in the United States excluding COVID-19, and its mortality burden has been rising since the 1980s. Smoking cessation, long-term oxygen therapy, noninvasive ventilation, and lung volume reduction surgery have had a beneficial effect on mortality; however, until recently, the effects of pharmacologic therapies on all-cause mortality have been unclear. Inhaled pharmacologic treatments for patients with COPD include combinations of long-acting muscarinic receptor antagonists (LAMAs), long-acting-β_2-agonists (LABAs), and inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). The recent IMPACT and ETHOS clinical trials reported mortality benefits with ICS/LAMA/LABA triple therapy compared with LAMA/LABA dual therapy. In IMPACT, fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol therapy significantly reduced the risk of on-/off-treatment all-cause mortality vs umeclidinium/vilanterol (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.99; P=.042). The ETHOS trial found a reduction in the risk of on-/off-treatment all-cause mortality in patients treated with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol vs glycopyrrolate/formoterol (hazard ratio, 0.51 [0.33 to 0.80]; nominal P=.0035). Both trials included populations of patients with symptomatic COPD at high risk of future exacerbations, and a post hoc analysis of the final retrieved vital status data suggested that the observed mortality benefits are conferred by the ICS component. In conclusion, triple therapy reduces the risk of mortality in patients with symptomatic COPD characterized by moderate or severe airflow obstruction and a recent history of moderate or severe exacerbations. This benefit is likely to be driven by reductions in exacerbations. Future research efforts should focus on improving the long-term prognosis of patients living with COPD.

Decreased capsaicin cough reflex sensitivity predicts hospitalisation due to COPD

INTRODUCTION

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are often hospitalised due to severe acute exacerbation (AE) or community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Previous studies revealed the association of cough reflex sensitivity with the pathophysiology of COPD and pneumonia. We hypothesised that cough reflex sensitivity may be associated with severe AE or CAP requiring hospitalisation in patients with COPD.

METHODS

We prospectively recruited 68 patients with COPD between June 2018 and January 2020. Patient characteristics, lung and cardiac functions, and biomarkers, including capsaicin cough reflex sensitivity and blood eosinophil count, were evaluated at enrolment. All participants were monitored for AE or CAP requiring hospitalisation for 12 months. We determined the risk factors and ORs for hospitalisation in patients with COPD using a multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Eight patients experienced AE (n=3) or CAP (n=5) and required hospitalisation during follow-up. Patients in the hospitalisation+ group had higher modified Medical Research Council scores and blood eosinophil counts (≥300 µL) than those in the hospitalisation- group. Capsaicin cough reflex sensitivity tended to decrease in the hospitalisation+ group compared with that in the hospitalisation- group. Multivariate analysis revealed that a decreased capsaicin cough reflex and high eosinophil count (≥300 µL) were predictive risk factors for future hospitalisation due to AE-COPD or CAP.

CONCLUSION

In addition to eosinophils, decreased capsaicin cough reflex sensitivity was associated with hospitalisation due to AE-COPD or CAP. Capsaicin cough reflex sensitivity in patients with COPD may play a role in the prevention of severe AE or pneumonia requiring hospitalisation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000032497.

Factors Associated with the Non-Exacerbator Phenotype of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and no exacerbations may need less maintenance treatment and follow-up. The aim was to identify factors associated with a non-exacerbator COPD phenotype.

Methods

Cross-sectional analysis of 1354 patients from primary and secondary care, with a doctor's diagnosis of COPD. In 2014, data on demographics, exacerbation frequency and symptoms using COPD Assessment Test (CAT) were collected using questionnaires and on spirometry and comorbid conditions by record review. The non-exacerbator phenotype was defined as having reported no exacerbations the previous six months. Multivariable logistic regression with the non-exacerbator phenotype as dependent variable was performed, including stratification and interaction analyses by sex.

Results

The non-exacerbator phenotype was found in 891 (66%) patients and was independently associated with COPD stage 1 (OR [95% CI] 5.72 [3.30-9.92]), stage 2 (3.42 [2.13-5.51]) and stage 3 (2.38 [1.46-3.88]) compared with stage 4, and with CAT score <10 (3.35 [2.34-4.80]). Chronic bronchitis and underweight were inversely associated with the non-exacerbator phenotype (0.47 [0.28-0.79]) and (0.68 [0.48-0.97]), respectively. The proportion of non-exacerbators was higher among patients with no maintenance treatment or a single bronchodilator. The association of COPD stage 1 compared with stage 4 with the non-exacerbator phenotype was stronger in men (p for interaction 0.048). In women, underweight and obesity were both inversely associated with the non-exacerbator phenotype (p for interaction 0.033 and 0.046 respectively), and in men heart failure was inversely associated with the non-exacerbator phenotype (p for interaction 0.030).

Conclusion

The non-exacerbator phenotype is common, especially in patients with no maintenance treatment or a single bronchodilator, and is characterized by preserved lung function, low symptom burden, and by absence of chronic bronchitis, underweight and obesity and heart failure. We suggest these patients may need less treatment and follow-up, but that management of comorbid conditions is important to avoid exacerbations.

Demystifying Prognosis : Understanding the Science and Art of Prognostication

The science of prognostication is emerging as a vital part of providing goal concordant patient care. Historically, modern medicine has tended to shy away from approaching prognostication as a core clinical skill, and prognosis as something to be shared directly with the patient. In recent years however, the medical field's shift towards a focus on patient autonomy and more openness in matters regarding end of life has propelled the study of prognostication into a more essential component of patient centered care. This calls for more emphasis on teaching the science of prognosis and the skill of prognostication as a core part of modern medical education. The following chapter aims to delve into the science of prognostication, explore the methods of formulating a prognosis, and discuss issues surrounding the communication of prognosis.

External Validation and User Experiences of the ProPal-COPD Tool to Identify the Palliative Phase in COPD

Background

Difficulty predicting prognosis is a major barrier to timely palliative care provision for patients with COPD. The ProPal-COPD tool, combining six clinical indicators and the Surprise Question (SQ), aims to predict 1-year mortality as a proxy for palliative care needs. It appeared to be a promising tool for healthcare providers to identify patients with COPD who could benefit from palliative care.

Objective

To externally validate the ProPal-COPD tool and to assess user experiences.

Methods

Patients admitted with an acute exacerbation COPD were recruited across 10 hospitals. Demographics, clinical characteristics and survival status were collected. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the tool using two cut-off values were calculated. Also, predictive properties of the SQ were calculated. In monitoring meetings and interviews, healthcare providers shared their experiences with the tool. Transcripts were deductively coded using six user experience domains: Acceptability, Satisfaction, Credibility, Usability, User-reported adherence and Perceived impact.

Results

A total of 523 patients with COPD were included between May 2019 and August 2020, of whom 100 (19.1%) died within 12 months. The ProPal-COPD tool had an AUC of 0.68 and a low sensitivity (55%) and moderate specificity (74%) for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality. Using a lower cut-off value, sensitivity was higher (74%), but specificity lower (46%). Sensitivity and specificity of the SQ were 56% and 73%, respectively (AUC 0.65). However, healthcare providers generally appreciated using the tool because it increased awareness of the palliative phase and provided a shared understanding of prognosis, although they considered its outcome not always correct.

Conclusion

The accuracy of the ProPal-COPD tool to predict 1-year mortality is limited, although screening patients with its indicators increases healthcare providers' awareness of palliative care needs and encourages them to timely initiate appropriate care.

The Relationship Between Clinical Phenotypes and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Stages/Groups in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be properly characterised by a single metric, forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), due to its complexity and heterogeneity. The GOLD 2017 report contained the ABCD evaluation method to measure airflow limitation, symptoms, and/or exacerbation risk. Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between clinical characteristics and GOLD groups or stages in patients with COPD. Methods This cross-sectional observational study was conducted at the department of respiratory medicine, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, between 2019 and 2022. Here, stable COPD patients' demographics, clinical characteristics, and the number of exacerbations were compared between the groups following the GOLD 2022 report. An unpaired t-test with Welch's correction, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, one-way ANOVA, and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for statistical significance. Results In this study, 349 stable COPD patients (256 males and 93 females) were selected. The GOLD 2017 categorization placed 78 (22.4%) patients in group A, 158 (45.3%) in B, 44 (12.6%) in C, and 69 (19.8%) in D. Further, we used GOLD 2017 to classify COPD patients into 16 subgroups (1A-4D). FEV1 (% predicted) decreased across groups A to D (p<0.0001). Groups C and D had a longer duration of illness, higher COPD assessment test (CAT) score, higher Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, longer exacerbation history, and more COPD hospitalizations in the previous year than groups A and B. More symptomatic patients (B and D) exhibited lower FEV1 (% predicted) and more severe airflow limitation than less symptomatic patients (A and C) (p=0.0002). Symptomatic individuals exhibited higher CAT and mMRC dyspnea scores (p<0.0001). Groups C and D comprised older patients and those with longer disease duration, higher mMRC dyspnea scale and CAT, lower FEV1, and more severe airflow limitation (A and B). Conclusion The present study demonstrates the distribution of COPD patients' clinical phenotypes in an Indian population. We conclude that the combined COPD assessment according to the GOLD 2022 guideline provides a better understanding of COPD.

Unsupervised Learning Identifies Computed Tomographic Measurements as Primary Drivers of Progression, Exacerbation, and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous syndrome with phenotypic manifestations that tend to be distributed along a continuum. Unsupervised machine learning based on broad selection of imaging and clinical phenotypes may be used to identify primary variables that define disease axes and stratify patients with COPD. Objectives: To identify primary variables driving COPD heterogeneity using principal component analysis and to define disease axes and assess the prognostic value of these axes across three outcomes: progression, exacerbation, and mortality. Methods: We included 7,331 patients between 39 and 85 years old, of whom 40.3% were Black and 45.8% were female smokers with a mean of 44.6 pack-years, from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) phase I cohort (2008-2011) in our analysis. Out of a total of 916 phenotypes, 147 continuous clinical, spirometric, and computed tomography (CT) features were selected. For each principal component (PC), we computed a PC score based on feature weights. We used PC score distributions to define disease axes along which we divided the patients into quartiles. To assess the prognostic value of these axes, we applied logistic regression analyses to estimate 5-year (n = 4,159) and 10-year (n = 1,487) odds of progression. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed to estimate 5-year and 10-year risk of exacerbation (n = 6,532) and all-cause mortality (n = 7,331). Results: The first PC, accounting for 43.7% of variance, was defined by CT measures of air trapping and emphysema. The second PC, accounting for 13.7% of variance, was defined by spirometric and CT measures of vital capacity and lung volume. The third PC, accounting for 7.9% of the variance, was defined by CT measures of lung mass, airway thickening, and body habitus. Stratification of patients across each disease axis revealed up to 3.2-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.3) greater odds of 5-year progression, 5.4-fold (95% CI 4.6, 6.3) greater risk of 5-year exacerbation, and 5.0-fold (95% CI 4.2, 6.0) greater risk of 10-year mortality between the highest and lowest quartiles. Conclusions: Unsupervised learning analysis of the COPDGene cohort reveals that CT measurements may bolster patient stratification along the continuum of COPD phenotypes. Each of the disease axes also individually demonstrate prognostic potential, predictive of future forced expiratory volume in 1 second decline, exacerbation, and mortality.

MRI-assessed diaphragmatic function can predict frequent acute exacerbation of COPD: a prospective observational study based on telehealth-based monitoring system

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) have considerably high mortality and re-hospitalisation rate. Diaphragmatic dysfunction (DD) is common in COPD patients. However, whether diaphragmatic dysfunction is related to acute exacerbation is yet to be elucidated. This study aimed to evaluate the diaphragm function by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in COPD patients and assess whether the impact of DD may help predict AECOPD.

METHODS

20 healthy adult volunteers and 80 COPD patients were enrolled. The diaphragms function parameters were accessed by MRI. Patients were guided to start self-management by the Telehealth-based monitoring system following the enrolment. Events of acute exacerbation of COPD were recorded by the system and confirmed by healthcare providers. Binary univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the factors associated with the frequency of AECOPD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were further used to assess the value of prediction indexes.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine COPD patients completed a one-year follow-up based on the Telehealth-based monitoring system. The clinical outcomes showed that the diaphragm function parameters at the end of maximal breathing were lower in the COPD group than in the healthy control group (P < 0.05). ANOVA showed significant differences among Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages for diaphragm function parameters, including chest wall motion, lung area, upper-lower diameter, and the diaphragm thickening fraction at the end of maximal breathing (P < 0.05). Moreover, significant differences in diaphragm function parameters were observed between patients with infrequent AECOPD (n = 28) and frequent AECOPD (n = 31) based on the frequency of AECOPD (P < 0.05). The diaphragm thickening fraction and the chest wall motion were associated with AECOPD after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, and lung functions, and the combination of predictions showed better accuracy in predicting the frequency of AECOPD.

CONCLUSIONS

In COPD patients, diaphragm function parameters correlate with the severity of airflow limitation. The diaphragm thickening fraction and the chest wall motion were associated with the frequency of AECOPD and can predict it.

Effect of Recent Exacerbation History on the Efficacy of Once-Daily Single-Inhaler Fluticasone Furoate/Umeclidinium/Vilanterol Triple Therapy in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the FULFIL Trial

Background

In the FULFIL trial, once-daily single-inhaler triple therapy with fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) resulted in reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates and conferred significant improvements in lung function and health status in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) versus twice-daily budesonide/formoterol (BUD/FOR) dual therapy.

Methods

FULFIL was a Phase III, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, parallel-group study. Patients ≥40 years of age with symptomatic COPD were randomized 1:1 to FF/UMEC/VI 100/62.5/25 mcg or BUD/FOR 400/12 mcg. In this post hoc analysis, patients were categorized by exacerbation history in the year prior to study entry (≥1 moderate/severe exacerbation [recent exacerbation] versus no recent exacerbation). Endpoints included annual rate of on-treatment moderate/severe exacerbations up to Week 24, annual rate of on-treatment severe exacerbations up to Week 24, change from baseline in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second at Week 24, and change from baseline in health status as measured by St George's respiratory questionnaire total score at Week 24.

Results

Of the 1810 patients in the intent-to-treat population, 1180 (65%) had one or more moderate/severe exacerbation in the year prior to entry, while 630 (35%) patients did not. FF/UMEC/VI versus BUD/FOR significantly reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates in the recent exacerbation subgroup (mean annualized rate: 0.19 vs 0.29; rate ratio [95% confidence interval [CI]]: 0.64: [0.45, 0.91]; p=0.014) and numerically reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates in the no recent exacerbation subgroup (mean annualized rate: 0.29 vs 0.43; rate ratio [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.43, 1.04]; p=0.073). Severe exacerbation rates were numerically reduced with FF/UMEC/VI versus BUD/FOR treatment across both subgroups. FF/UMEC/VI conferred significant improvements in lung function and health status versus BUD/FOR, regardless of recent exacerbation history.

Conclusion

FF/UMEC/VI reduced moderate/severe and severe exacerbation rates and improved lung function and health status versus BUD/FOR in patients with symptomatic COPD, regardless of recent exacerbation history.

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD.

Methods

A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD.

Results

The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies).

Conclusions

This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-02123-5.

Clustering-based COPD subtypes have distinct longitudinal outcomes and multi-omics biomarkers

Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can progress across several domains, complicating the identification of the determinants of disease progression. In our previous work, we applied k-means clustering to spirometric and chest radiological measures to identify four COPD-related subtypes: ‘relatively resistant smokers (RRS)’, ‘mild upper lobe-predominant emphysema (ULE)’, ‘airway-predominant disease (AD)’ and ‘severe emphysema (SE)’. In the current study, we examined the associations of these subtypes to longitudinal COPD-related health measures as well as blood transcriptomic and plasma proteomic biomarkers.

Methods

We included 8266 non-Hispanic white and African-American smokers from the COPDGene study. We used linear regression to investigate cluster associations to 5-year prospective changes in spirometric and radiological measures and to gene expression and protein levels. We used Cox-proportional hazard test to test for cluster associations to prospective exacerbations, comorbidities and mortality.

Results

The RRS, ULE, AD and SE clusters represented 39%, 15%, 26% and 20% of the studied cohort at baseline, respectively. The SE cluster had the greatest 5-year FEV₁ (forced expiratory volume in 1 s) and emphysema progression, and the highest risks of exacerbations, cardiovascular disease and mortality. The AD cluster had the highest diabetes risk. After adjustments, only the SE cluster had an elevated respiratory mortality risk, while the ULE, AD and SE clusters had elevated all-cause mortality risks. These clusters also demonstrated differential protein and gene expression biomarker associations, mostly related to inflammatory and immune processes.

Conclusion

COPD k-means subtypes demonstrate varying rates of disease progression, prospective comorbidities, mortality and associations to transcriptomic and proteomic biomarkers. These findings emphasise the clinical and biological relevance of these subtypes, which call for more study for translation into clinical practice.

Trail registration number

NCT00608764.

Long-term outcome of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A review

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic airway inflammation characterized by fixed airflow limitation and chronic respiratory symptoms, such as cough, sputum, and dyspnea. COPD is a progressive disease characterized by a decline in lung function. During the natural course of the disease, acute deterioration of symptoms leading to hospital visits can occur and influence further disease progression and subsequent exacerbation. Moreover, COPD is not only restricted to pulmonary manifestations but can present with other systemic diseases as comorbidities or systemic manifestations, including lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary hypertension, sarcopenia, and metabolic abnormalities. These pulmonary and extrapulmonary conditions lead to the aggravation of dyspnea, physical inactivity, decreased exercise capacity, functional decline, reduced quality of life, and increased mortality. In addition, pneumonia, which is attributed to both COPD itself and an adverse effect of treatment (especially the use of inhaled and/or systemic steroids), can occur and lead to further deterioration in the prognosis of COPD. This review summarizes the long-term outcomes of patients with COPD. In addition, recent studies on the prediction of adverse outcomes are summarized in the last part of the review.

Risk of COPD exacerbation is increased by poor sleep quality and modified by social adversity

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Sleep is an important dimension in the care of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its relevance to exacerbations is unclear. We wanted to assess whether sleep quality as measured by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) is associated with an increased risk of COPD exacerbations and does this differ by socio-environmental exposures.

METHODS

We included 1647 current and former smokers with spirometrically confirmed COPD from the SPIROMICS cohort. We assessed incidence rate ratios for exacerbation using zero-inflated negative binomial regression adjusting for demographics, medical comorbidities, and multiple metrics of disease severity, including respiratory medications, airflow obstruction, and symptom burden. Our final model adjusted for socio-environmental exposures using the Area Deprivation Index, a composite measure of contemporary neighborhood quality, and Adversity-Opportunity Index, a composite measure of individual-level historic and current socioeconomic indicators. We used a pre-determined threshold of 20% missingness to undertake multiple imputation by chained equations. As sensitivity analyses, we repeated models in those with complete data and after controlling for prior exacerbations. As an exploratory analysis, we considered an interaction between socio-environmental condition and sleep quality.

RESULTS

After adjustment for all co-variates, increasing PSQI scores (range 0-21) were associated with a 5% increased risk for exacerbation per point (p = .001) in the imputed dataset. Sensitivity analyses using complete cases and after controlling for prior exacerbation history were similar. Exploratory analysis suggested less effect among those who lived in poor-quality neighborhoods (p-for-interaction = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Poor sleep quality may contribute to future exacerbations among patients with COPD. This represents one target for improving disease control.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier# NCT01969344. Registry URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/.

Association of PM2.5 and PM10 with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease at lag0 to lag7: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

This study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to investigate whether short-term exposure to fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM₁₀) particulate matter was associated with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) hospitalization, emergency room visit, and outpatient visit at different lag values. PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant papers published up to March 2021. For studies reporting results per 1-µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, the results were recalculated as per 10-µg/m³ increase. We manually calculated the RRs for these two studies and transferred the RRs to estimate 10 µg/m³ increases in PM_2.5. Automation tools were initially used to remove ineligible studies. Two reviewers independently screened the remaining records and retrieved reports. Twenty-six studies (28 datasets; 7,018,419 patients) were included. There was a significant association between PM_2.5 and AECOPD events on lag0 (ES = 1.01, 95%CI: 1.01-1.02, p < 0.001; I²=88.6%, P_{heterogeneity}<0.001), lag1 (ES = 1.00, 95%CI: 1.00-1.01, p < 0.001; I²=82.5%, P_{heterogeneity}<0.001), lag2 (ES = 1.01, 95%CI: 1.01-1.01, p < 0.001; I²=90.6%, P_{heterogeneity}<0.001), lag3 (ES = 1.01, 95%CI: 1.00-1.01, p < 0.001; I²=88.9%, P_{heterogeneity}<0.001), lag4 (ES = 1.00, 95%CI: 1.00-1.01, p < 0.001; I²=83.7%, P_{heterogeneity}<0.001), and lag7 (ES = 1.00, 95%CI: 1.00-1.00, p < 0.001; I²=0.0%, P_{heterogeneity}=0.743). The subgroup analyses showed that PM_2.5 influenced the rates of hospitalization, emergency room visits, and outpatient visits. Similar trends were observed with PM₁₀. The risk of AECOPD events (hospitalization, emergency room visit, and outpatient visit) was significantly increased with a 10-µg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ from lag0 to lag7.List Of Abbreviations: particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀); acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD); Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA); Effect sizes [48]; confidence intervals (CIs).

Relation between biomarkers and findings of low dose CT scans in hospitalized patients with AECOPD

Background

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) and community acquired pneumonia (CAP) often coexist. Although chest radiographs may differentiate between these diagnoses, chest radiography is known to underestimate the incidence of CAP in AECOPD. In this exploratory study, we prospectively investigated the incidence of infiltrative changes using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). Additionally, we investigated whether clinical biomarkers of CAP differed between patients with and without infiltrative changes.

Methods

Patients with AECOPD in which pneumonia was excluded using chest radiography underwent additional LDCT-thorax. The images were read independently by two radiologists; a third radiologist was consulted as adjudicator. C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and serum amyloid A (SAA) at admission were assessed.

Results

Out of the 100 patients included, 24 had one or more radiographic abnormalities suggestive of pneumonia. The interobserver agreement between two readers (Cohen's κ) was 0.562 (95% CI 0.371–0.752; p<0.001). Biomarkers were elevated in the group with radiological abnormalities compared to the group without abnormalities. Median (interquartile range (IQR)) CRP was 76 (21.5–148.0) mg·L⁻¹ compared to 20.5 (8.8–81.5) mg·L ⁻¹ (p=0.018); median (IQR) PCT was 0.09 (0.06–0.15) µg·L⁻¹ compared to 0.06 (0.04–0.08) μg·L⁻¹ (p=0.007); median (IQR) SAA was 95 (7–160) µg·mL⁻¹ compared to 16 (3–89) µg·mL⁻¹ (p=0.019). Sensitivity and specificity for all three biomarkers were moderate for detecting radiographic abnormalities by LDCT in this population. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.66 (95% CI 0.52–0.80) for CRP, 0.66 (95% CI 0.53–0.80) for PCT and 0.69 (95% CI 0.57–0.81) for SAA.

Conclusion

LDCT can detect additional radiological abnormalities that may indicate acute-phase lung involvement in patients with AECOPD without infiltrate(s) on the chest radiograph. Despite CRP, PCT and SAA being significantly higher in the group with radiological abnormalities on LDCT, they proved unable to reliably detect or exclude CAP. Further research is warranted.

LDCT-thorax can detect additional radiological abnormalities in patients with AECOPD after excluding CAP using chest radiography. Biomarkers are significantly elevated in patients with abnormalities, but are not able to reliably exclude these changes.https://bit.ly/3KAsBap

The development of the ADO-SQ model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Goals of end-of-life care must be adapted to the needs of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are in the last phase of life. However, identification of those patients is limited by moderate performances of existing prognostic models and by limited validation of the often-recommended surprise question.

AIM

To develop a clinical prediction model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD.

DESIGN

Prospective study using logistic regression to develop a model in two steps: (1) external validation of the ADO, BODEX, or CODEX models (A = age; B = body mass index; C = comorbidity; D = dyspnea; EX = exacerbations; O = airflow obstruction); (2) updating of best performing model and extending it with the surprise question. Discriminative performance of the new model was assessed using internal-external validation and measured with area under the curve (AUC). A nomogram and web application were developed.

SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COPD from five hospitals (September-November 2017).

RESULTS

Of the 358 included patients (median age 69.5 years, 50% male), 63 (17%) died within a year. The ADO index (AUC 0.73) had the best discriminative ability compared to the BODEX (AUC 0.71) or CODEX (AUC 0.68), and was extended with the surprise question. The resulting ADO-surprise question (SQ) model had an AUC of 0.79.

CONCLUSION

The ADO-SQ model offers improved discriminative performance for predicting 1-year mortality compared to the surprise question, ADO, BODEX, or CODEX. A user-friendly nomogram and web application (https://dnieboer.shinyapps.io/copd) were developed. Further external validation of the ADO-SQ in patient groups is needed.

The Impact of Oxygen Pulse and Its Curve Patterns on Male Patients with Heart Failure, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Healthy Controls-Ejection Fractions, Related Factors and Outcomes

Oxygen pulse (O2P) is a function of stroke volume and cellular oxygen extraction and O2P curve pattern (O2PCP) can provide continuous measurements of O2P. However, measurements of these two components are difficult during incremental maximum exercise. As cardiac function is evaluated using ejection fraction (EF) according to the guidelines and EF can be obtained using first-pass radionuclide ventriculography, the aim of this study was to investigate associations of O2P%predicted and O2PCP with EF in patients with heart failure with reduced or mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF/HFmrEF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and also in normal controls. This was a prospective observational cross-sectional study. Correlations of resting left ventricular EF, dynamic right and left ventricular EFs and outcomes with O2P% and O2PCP across the three participant groups were analyzed. A total of 237 male subjects were screened and 90 were enrolled (27 with HFrEF/HFmrEF, 30 with COPD and 33 normal controls). O2P% and the proportions of the three types of O2PCP were similar across the three groups. O2P% reflected dynamic right and left ventricular EFs in the control and HFrEF/HFmrEF groups, but did not reflect resting left ventricular EF in all participants. O2PCP did not reflect resting or dynamic ventricular EFs in any of the subjects. A decrease in O2PCP was significantly related to nonfatal cardiac events in the HFrEF/HFmrEF group (log rank test, p = 0.01), whereas O2P% and O2PCP did not predict severe acute exacerbations of COPD. The findings of this study may clarify the utility of O2P and O2PCP, and may contribute to the currently used interpretation algorithm and the strategy for managing patients, especially those with HFrEF/HFmrEF. (Trial registration number NCT05189301.).

Discontinuation of Inhaled Corticosteroids from Triple Therapy in COPD: Effects on Major Outcomes in Real World Clinical Practice

Recent reports provide evidence-based guidelines for the withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in COPD, but data on patients treated with ICS-based triple therapy are sparse and contradictory. We assessed the effect of ICS discontinuation on the incidence of severe exacerbation and pneumonia in a real-world population of patients with COPD who initiated triple therapy. We identified a cohort of patients with COPD treated with LAMA-LABA-ICS triple therapy during 2002-2018, age 50 or older, from the UK's CPRD database. Subjects who discontinued ICS were matched 1:1 on time-conditional propensity scores to those continuing ICS and followed for one year. Hazard ratios (HR) of severe exacerbation and pneumonia were estimated using Cox regression. The cohort included 42,667 patients who discontinued ICS matched to 42,667 who continued ICS treatment. The hazard ratio of a severe exacerbation with ICS discontinuation relative to ICS continuation was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.95), while for severe pneumonia it was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.88-1.05). The incidence of severe exacerbation after ICS discontinuation was numerically higher than after continuation among patients with two or more exacerbations in the prior year (HR 1.09; 95% CI: 0.94-1.26) and among those with FEV₁ <30% predicted (HR 1.29; 95% CI: 1.04-1.59). This large real-world study in the clinical setting of COPD treatment suggests that certain patients on triple therapy can be safely withdrawn from ICS and remain on bronchodilator therapy. As residual confounding cannot be ruled out, ICS discontinuation is not warranted for patients with multiple exacerbations and with very severe airway obstruction.

Association of body mass index and COPD exacerbation among patients with chronic bronchitis

Background and objective

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with a body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m² are prone to develop adverse event of pharmacological treatment for frequent exacerbation. As chronic bronchitis (CB) is one of the strong risk factors of exacerbation, we investigated the associations between BMI and COPD exacerbations in patients with CB.

Methods

Patients with COPD were included from the Korean COPD Subgroup Study (KOCOSS), a multicenter observational cohort study. CB was defined using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire and the participants were categorized according to BMI cut-off of 25 kg/m². Exacerbations during a 1-year follow-up were compared among four groups: non-CB with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m², non-CB with BMI < 25 kg/m², CB with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m², and CB with BMI < 25 kg/m².

Results

Among the 1264 patients with COPD, 451 (35.7%) had CB and 353 (27.9%) had both CB and BMI < 25 kg/m². The COPD exacerbation risk increased across the non-CB with BMI < 25 kg/m², CB with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m², and CB with BMI < 25 kg/m² groups (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.21 [0.89–1.62], 1.20 [0.77–1.88], and 1.41 [1.02–1.91], respectively, compared to the non-CB with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² group).

Conclusions

COPD patients having both CB and a BMI < 25 kg/m² are at higher risk of exacerbations. Considering that a BMI < 25 kg/m² often limits treatment options preventing exacerbations, modified guidelines might be needed for non-obese CB patients in Asia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-01957-3.

Incorporating Biomarkers in COPD Management: The Research Keeps Going

Globally, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality, having a significant socioeconomic effect. Several molecular mechanisms have been related to COPD including chronic inflammation, telomere shortening, and epigenetic modifications. Nowadays, there is an increasing need for novel therapeutic approaches for the management of COPD. These treatment strategies should be based on finding the source of acute exacerbation of COPD episodes and estimating the patient’s own risk. The use of biomarkers and the measurement of their levels in conjunction with COPD exacerbation risk and disease prognosis is considered an encouraging approach. Many types of COPD biomarkers have been identified which include blood protein biomarkers, cellular biomarkers, and protease enzymes. They have been isolated from different sources including peripheral blood, sputum, bronchoalveolar fluid, exhaled air, and genetic material. However, there is still not an exclusive biomarker that is used for the evaluation of COPD but rather a combination of them, and this is attributed to disease complexity. In this review, we summarize the clinical significance of COPD-related biomarkers, their association with disease outcomes, and COPD patients’ management. Finally, we depict the various samples that are used for identifying and measuring these biomarkers.

Comparison of peak expiratory Flow(PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbation requiring hospitalization: A prospective observational study

Background: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) resulting in hospitalization is significantly associated with the increased morbidity and mortality, but there is a lack of an effective method to assess it. This study aimed to compare the ability of peak expiratory flow (PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization. Methods : A cohort of 110 patients with moderate to severe COPD was studied over a period of 12 months, and their daily morning PEFs and CAT scores were recorded throughout the study. Results : After 12 months of follow-up, 72 patients experienced 156 COPD exacerbations, 74 (47%) that resulted in hospitalization and 82 (53%) that did not result in hospitalization. Change in CAT score from baseline to exacerbation was significantly related to change in PEF and Spearman’s rho =0.375 (95% CI, 0.227 to 0.506; p < .001). Change in PEF and CAT score from baseline to hospitalized exacerbation was significantly larger than that from baseline to non-hospitalized exacerbation (p < .05). Multivariable analysis indicated that ΔPEF (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06–1.16, p < .001) and ΔCAT (OR 1.64 95% CI 1.18–2.27, p = .003) were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. ROC analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff value of ΔPEF for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 49 L/min (27% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.7% and 76.7% (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.872 (95% CI 0.80–0.944, p < .05). The optimal cutoff value of ΔCAT score for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 10.5 (63% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 67.3% and 77.4% [AUC]=0.763 (95% CI 0.67–0.857, p < .05). The AUC of ΔPEF and ΔCAT combined for the identification of hospitalized exacerbation was 0.900 (95% CI 0.841–0.959, p < .05), which was larger than that of ΔCAT or ΔPEF. Conclusions: ΔPEF and ΔCAT were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. Compared with CAT, PEF was superior to identify hospitalized exacerbation. Identification via PEF and CAT combined is more effective than using PEF or CAT alone. These results help to assess the severity of COPD exacerbation and provide valuable information for clinical decision-making.