Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

Global warming and sexual plant reproduction

The sexual reproductive phase in plants might be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. The direct effect of temperature changes on the reproductive process has been documented previously, and recent data from other physiological processes that are affected by rising temperatures seem to reinforce the susceptibility of the reproductive process to a changing climate. But the reproductive phase also provides the plant with an opportunity to adapt to environmental changes. Understanding phenotypic plasticity and gametophyte selection for prevailing temperatures, along with possible epigenetic changes during this process, could provide new insights into plant evolution under a global-warming scenario.

Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis.

The potential for predicted climate shifts to impact genetic landscapes of lizards in the South African Cape Floristic Region

The Cape Floristic Region (CFR) is well-known for its floral diversity, yet also contains a rich herpetofauna with >180 species, 28% of which are endemic. Recent studies conducted on CFR lizards indicated that phylogeographic patterns show some congruency, and that the western CFR shows higher overall diversity in the form of population and/or clade turnover. Here, we combine mitochondrial sequence data from two published (Bradypodion spp. and Agama atra) and one new dataset (Pedioplanis burchelli) to investigate whether geographic patterns of genetic diversity could be influenced by predicted climatic changes. We utilised Bayesian methodology and spatial genetic landscapes to establish broad-scale patterns and show that the western CFR is a contact zone for several clades in all three taxa, supporting the hypothesis of phylogeographic congruence. Current levels of gene flow are virtually zero between the western and eastern CFR. In the east, gene flow between populations is negligible at present but was probably stronger in the past given the present lack of strong genetic structure. Bioclimatic modelling predicted that climatically suitable areas within the CFR will decline for Bradypodion spp. and P. burchelli, with areas high in clade turnover loosing more climatically suitable areas than areas with low clade turnover. The models also predict that loss of climatic suitability may result in highly fragmented and patchy distributions, resulting in a greater loss of connectivity. In contrast, A. atra does not show significant climatic suitability losses overall, although it may experience localised losses (and gains). This species is not predicted to loose suitability in areas of high clade turnover. Thus, the incorporation of genetic data into climatic models has extended our knowledge on the vulnerability of these species given the predicted threat of landscape change.

Life cycle considerations for improving sustainability assessments in seafood awareness campaigns

It is widely accepted that improving the sustainability of seafood production requires efforts to reverse declines in global fisheries due to overfishing and to reduce the impacts to host ecosystems from fishing and aquaculture production technologies. Reflective of on-going dialogue amongst participants in an international research project applying Life Cycle Assessment to better understand and manage global salmon production systems, we argue here that such efforts must also address the wider range of biophysical, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts stemming from the material and energetic throughput associated with these industries. This is of particular relevance given the interconnectivity of global environmental change, ocean health, and the viability of seafood production in both fisheries and aquaculture. Although the growing popularity of numerous ecolabeling, certification, and consumer education programs may be making headway in influencing Western consumer perceptions of the relative sustainability of alternative seafood products, we also posit that the efficacy of these initiatives in furthering sustainability objectives is compromised by the use of incomplete criteria. An emerging body of Life Cycle Assessment research of fisheries and aquaculture provides valuable insights into the biophysical dimensions of environmental performance in alternative seafood production and consumption systems, and should be used to inform a more holistic approach to labeling, certifying, and educating for sustainability in seafood production. More research, however, must be undertaken to develop novel techniques for incorporating other critical dimensions, in particular, socioeconomic considerations, into our sustainability decision-making.

Impacts of climate warming on vegetation in Qaidam Area from 1990 to 2003

The observed warming trend in the Qaidam area, an arid basin surrounded by high mountains, has caused land surface dynamics that are detectable using remotely sensed data. In this paper, we detected land-cover changes in the Qaidam Area between 1990 and 2003 in attempt to depict its spatial variability. The land-cover changes were categorized into two trends: degradation and amelioration, and their spatial patterns were examined. Then we estimated the correlation coefficients between growing-season NDVI and several climatic factors with the consideration of duration and lagging effects. The results show that the inter-annual NDVI variations are positively correlated with May to July precipitations, but not significantly correlated with sunshine duration. We observed no obvious trend in precipitation or sunshine duration from 1990 to 2003. Thus, the authors suggest that their slight fluctuations may not be responsible to the decade-scaled land-cover changes. However, our results indicate a good positive relationship between the NDVI trend and climate warming in the ameliorated areas, but a negative one in the degraded areas. By statistical analyses, we found that degradations mainly occurred at the oasis boundaries and at lower elevations in the non-oasis regions where effective soil moisture might have been reduced by the warming-caused increase in evapotranspiration. At higher elevations where thermal condition acts as a major limiting factor, ameliorations were unequivocally detected, which is attributable to the direct facilitation by temperature increases. We suggest that the impacts of the observed climate warming on vegetation are spatially heterogeneous, depending on the combinations of thermal condition and moisture availability.

Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar

One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.

Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population

1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set on a white stork (Ciconia ciconia) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize stork's survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics.

Larval tolerance, gene flow, and the northern geographic range limit of fiddler crabs

Despite growing interest in species' range shifts, little is known about the ecological and evolutionary factors that control geographic range boundaries. We investigated the processes that maintain the northern range limit of the mud fiddler crab (Uca pugnax) at North Scituate, Massachusetts, USA (42 degrees 14' N), located approximately 60 km north of Cape Cod. Larvae from five populations in Massachusetts were reared under controlled temperatures to test whether cooler water near the edge of this species' range inhibits planktonic development. Few larvae completed development at temperatures < 18 degrees C, a threshold that larvae would regularly encounter north of Cape Cod. Extensive salt marshes are present north of the current range boundary, and a transplant experiment using field enclosures confirmed that benthic fiddler crabs can survive severe winter conditions in this northern habitat. Taken with oceanographic data, these results suggest that the range boundary of fiddler crabs is likely maintained by the influence of cooler water temperatures on the larval phase. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequences from a neutral marker (COI) indicate high gene flow among U. pugnax populations in Massachusetts with little differentiation across Cape Cod. Consistent with predictions regarding the homogenizing influence of gene flow, larvae from source populations north and south of Cape Cod shared a common lower threshold for development. However, larvae produced near the range edge had faster growth rates than those from the south side of Cape Cod (typically reaching the final megalopal stage 1.0-5.5 d faster at 18 degrees C). Additional studies are needed to determine the mechanism underlying this counter-gradient variation in development time. We hypothesize that dispersal into cooler water on the north side of Cape Cod may act as a selection filter that sieves out slow developers from the larval pool by increasing planktonic duration and exposure to associated sources of mortality. Thus while high gene flow may prevent the evolution of greater cold tolerance in northern populations, recurrent selection on existing variation may lead to an unexpected concentration of favorable adaptations at the edge of the range. Such a pattern could permit edge populations to play a dominant and unrecognized role in future range extensions.

Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem

1. Rainfall is the prime climatic factor underpinning the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, but no study has analysed its influence on the abundance of these ungulates at monthly to multiannual time scales. 2. We report relationships between rainfall and changes in age- and sex-structured abundances of seven ungulate species monitored monthly for 15 years using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. 3. Abundance showed strong and curvilinear relationships with current and cumulative rainfall, with older topi, Damaliscus korrigum (Ogilby); warthog, Phacochoerus aethiopicus (Pallas); waterbuck, Kobus ellipsyprimnus (Ogilby); and impala, Aepyceros melampus (Lichtenstein) responding to longer lags than younger animals, portraying carryover effects of prior habitat conditions. 4. The abundances of newborn calves were best correlated with monthly rainfall averaged over the preceding 5-6 months for topi, waterbuck, warthog, and 2 months for the migratory zebra Equus burchelli (Gray), but with seasonal rainfall averaged over 2-5 years for giraffe, Giraffa camelopardalis (L.); impala; and kongoni, Alcelaphus busephalus (Pallas). The cumulative late wet-season rainfall was the best predictor of abundance for quarter- to full-grown animals for most species. Monthly rainfall exerted both negative and positive effects on the abundances of zebra, impala and waterbuck. Ignoring age, both sexes responded similarly to rainfall. 5. Births were strongly seasonal only for warthog and topi, but peaked between August and December for most species. Hence abundance was strongly seasonal for young topi and warthog and the migratory zebra. Pronounced seasonality in births for warthog and topi obliterated otherwise strong relationships between abundance and rainfall when both month and rainfall were included in the same model. Aggregated density produced relationships with rainfall similar to those for fully grown animals, emphasizing the necessity of demographic monitoring to reliably reveal rainfall influences on ungulate abundance in the Mara. 6. Strong relationships between abundance and rainfall suggest that rainfall underpins the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, and that changes in rainfall due to global warming may markedly alter the abundance and diversity of these mammals. Ungulates respond to rainfall fluctuations through movements, reproduction or survival, and the responses appear independent of breeding phenology and synchrony, dietary guild, or degree of water dependence. Newborns and adults have contrasting responses to rainfall. Males and females respond similarly to rainfall when age is ignored.

Effects of weather factors on the abundance and diversity of moths in a temperate deciduous mixed forest of Korea

Three-year (2004-2006) monitoring results of macrolepidoptera using light traps in a temperate deciduous mixed forest were analyzed to investigate the relationship between moth diversity and nine weather variables. Results of stepwise regression analyses showed that mean daily temperature was the main predictor for moth diversity. The present study also revealed that each moth family was affected by a set of different weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, or duration of sunshine) probably due to different life-history strategies. The impacts of recent climate change on insect populations may be evidenced in the close relationship between moth abundance and mean temperature.

Dispersal and the influence of rainfall on a population of the carnivorous marsupial swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus maritimus)

Although there is evidence that recent climatic changes have had significant impacts on a wide range of species in the Northern Hemisphere, the influence of climate change, particularly drought, on Australian native small mammal species is poorly understood. In this study we investigated dispersal patterns and the influence of rainfall on the swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus maritimus). Peak abundance occurred after the highest total annual rainfall for two decades, in 2001. A year later the population had declined to 10% of the peak. Birth dates appeared to occur three weeks earlier following a year of high rainfall. The dispersal of nine litters of pouch young (n = 62) was assessed following two breeding seasons. Young males remained on the natal site until December–January and dispersed before the breeding season. New males entered the population between January and June. More than 50% of females were residents and remained on the site to breed; the remaining females were trapped only once. After the male die-off the movements of pregnant females increased and they appeared to expand their home ranges. A. minimus exhibits philopatry of females and dispersal of males, as observed in other Antechinus species but dispersal occurs 2–3 months after weaning. This contrasts with juveniles of other Antechinus species that disperse abruptly after weaning. This study provides evidence that precipitation does have a major effect on the abundance of dasyurid species, making them vulnerable to drought and local or regional extinctions, particularly in areas of fragmented habitat and drying climates.

The rise and fall of species: implications for macroevolutionary and macroecological studies

Knowing the geographic extents of species is crucial for understanding the causes of diversity distributions and modes of speciation and extinction. Species geographic ranges are often viewed as approximately constant in size in geological time, even though climate change studies have shown that historical and modern species geographic distributions are not static. Here, we use an extensive global microfossil database to explore the temporal trajectories of geographic extents over the entire lifespan of marine nannoplankton, diatom, planktic foraminifer and radiolarian species. We show that geographic extents are not static over geological time-scales. Temporal trajectories of species geographic ranges are asymmetric: the rise is quicker than the fall. We propose that once a species has overcome its initial difficulties in geographic establishment, it rises to its peak geographic extent. However, once this peak value is reached, it will also have a maximal number of species to interact with. The negative of these biotic interactions could then cause a gradual geographic decline. We discuss the multiple implications of our findings with reference to macroecological and macroevolutionary studies.

Genetic response to rapid climate change: it's seasonal timing that matters

The primary nonbiological result of recent rapid climate change is warming winter temperatures, particularly at northern latitudes, leading to longer growing seasons and new seasonal exigencies and opportunities. Biological responses reflect selection due to the earlier arrival of spring, the later arrival of fall, or the increasing length of the growing season. Animals from rotifers to rodents use the high reliability of day length to time the seasonal transitions in their life histories that are crucial to fitness in temperate and polar environments: when to begin developing in the spring, when to reproduce, when to enter dormancy or when to migrate, thereby exploiting favourable temperatures and avoiding unfavourable temperatures. In documented cases of evolutionary (genetic) response to recent, rapid climate change, the role of day length (photoperiodism) ranges from causal to inhibitory; in no case has there been demonstrated a genetic shift in thermal optima or thermal tolerance. More effort should be made to explore the role of photoperiodism in genetic responses to climate change and to rule out the role of photoperiod in the timing of seasonal life histories before thermal adaptation is assumed to be the major evolutionary response to climate change.

The European land leech: biology and DNA-based taxonomy of a rare species that is threatened by climate warming

The European land leech Xerobdella lecomtei was discovered in 1868 and is one of the rarest animals on Earth. During the 1960s, several individuals of these approx. 40 mm long, cold-adapted terrestrial annelids that inhabit the moist soils of birch forests around Graz, Austria, were investigated. Only one original research paper has been published on the biology of this species. Between 2001 and 2005, we re-investigated the morphology of preserved specimens and searched for living individuals in their natural habitat that appeared to be intact. We found only one juvenile individual (length approx. 10 mm), indicating that this local leech population became largely extinct over the past four decades. The feeding behaviour of our 'lonesome George of the annelids' was studied and is described here in detail. After its death, the Xerobdella individual was used for chemical extraction and molecular studies (deoxyribonucleic acid [DNA] barcoding, based on one gene, the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I). In addition, novel DNA barcodes for a land leech from Madagascar and a recently discovered species from Europe were obtained. Our phylogenetic tree shows that X. lecomtei is not a member of the tropical land leeches (family Haemadipsidae), as previously thought, but represents a separate line of descent (family Xerobdellidae). The decline of the local leech population around Graz correlates with a rise in average summer temperatures of +3 degrees C between 1961 and 2004. This warming led to a drastic reduction in the moisture content of the soil where X. lecomtei lives. We suggest that human-induced climate change without apparent habitat destruction can lead to the extinction of populations of cold-adapted species that have a low colonization ability.

POLEWARD SHIFTS IN WINTER RANGES OF NORTH AMERICAN BIRDS

Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however, the spatial dynamics, mechanisms, and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries, center of occurrence, and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North America from 1975 to 2004. After accounting for the effect of range size and the location of the northern boundary, positive latitudinal trends were evident for the northern boundary (1.48 km/yr), center of occurrence (0.45 km/yr), and center of abundance (1.03 km/yr). The northern boundary, when examined across individual species, had the most variable trends (SD = 7.46 km/yr) relative to the center of occurrence (SD = 2.36 km/yr) and center of abundance (SD = 5.57 km/yr). Trends did not differ based on migratory status, but there was evidence that trends differed for species with ranges centered in the southern vs. northern portion of the study area. Species occurred more sporadically over time at northern range boundaries, and northern boundaries were associated with a concentration of colonization and extirpation events, with a greater prevalence of colonization events likely promoting poleward trends. Regional anthropogenic drivers explained approximately 8% of the trend for the northern boundary, 14% for the center of occurrence, and 18% for the center of abundance; however, these effects were localized in the northern portion of species' ranges and were associated with distributional changes within ranges, primarily abundance, producing patterns that mimicked poleward movements. We conclude that poleward distributional shifts represent the interaction between climate change and regional factors whose outcome is determined by the scale of the analysis and the biotic and abiotic features in the region, and how anthropogenic activities have impacted these features.

Budburst phenology of white birch in industrially polluted areas

Effects of environmental contamination on plant seasonal development have only rarely been properly documented. Monitoring of leaf growth in mountain birch, Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii, around a nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk hinted advanced budburst phenology in most polluted sites. However, under laboratory conditions budburst of birch twigs cut in late winter from trees naturally growing around three point polluters (nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, aluminium factory at Kandalaksha, and iron pellet plant at Kostomuksha) showed no relationship with distance from the emission source. In a greenhouse experiment, budburst phenology of mountain birch seedlings grown in unpolluted soil did not depend on seedling origin (from heavily polluted vs. clean sites), whereas seedlings in metal-contaminated soil demonstrated delayed budburst. These results allow to attribute advanced budburst phenology of white birch in severely polluted sites to modified microclimate, rather than to pollution impact on plant physiology or genetics.

Early onset of vegetation growth vs. rapid green-up: impacts on juvenile mountain ungulates

Seasonal patterns of climate and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by global warming. In alpine environments, the reproduction of birds and mammals is tightly linked to seasonality; therefore such alterations may have strong repercussions on recruitment. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a satellite-based measurement that correlates strongly with aboveground net primary productivity, to explore how annual variations in the timing of vegetation onset and in the rate of change in primary production during green-up affected juvenile growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in four different populations in two continents. We indexed timing of onset of vegetation growth by the integrated NDVI (INDVI) in May. The rate of change in primary production during green-up (early May to early July) was estimated as (1) the maximal slope between any two successive bimonthly NDVI values during this period and (2) the slope in NDVI between early May and early July. The maximal slope in NDVI was negatively correlated with lamb growth and survival in both populations of bighorn sheep, growth of mountain goat kids, and survival of Alpine ibex kids, but not with survival of mountain goat kids. There was no effect of INDVI in May and of the slope in NDVI between early May and early July on juvenile growth and survival for any species. Although rapid changes in NDVI during the green-up period could translate into higher plant productivity, they may also lead to a shorter period of availability of high-quality forage over a large spatial scale, decreasing the opportunity for mountain ungulates to exploit high-quality forage. Our results suggest that attempts to forecast how warmer winters and springs will affect animal population dynamics and life histories in alpine environments should consider factors influencing the rate of changes in primary production during green-up and the timing of vegetation onset.

Mother-offspring competition promotes colonization success

Colonization is the crucial process underlying range expansions, biological invasions, and metapopulation dynamics. Which individuals leave their natal population to colonize empty habitats is a crucial question and is presently unresolved. Dispersal is the first step in colonization. However, not all dispersing individuals are necessarily good colonizers. Indeed, in some species, the phenotype of dispersers differs depending on the selective pressures that induce dispersal. In particular, kin-based interactions, a factor driving social evolution, should induce different social response profiles in nondispersing and dispersing individuals. Kin competition (defined here as between the mother and offspring) has been proven to produce dispersers with a particular phenotype that may enhance their colonizing ability. By using the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara), we conducted a multipopulation experiment to study the effect of kin competition on dispersal and colonization success. We manipulated mother-offspring interactions, which are the most important component of kin competition in the studied species, at the family and population levels and measured the consequences on colonization success. We demonstrate that mother-offspring competition at the population level significantly influences colonization success. Increased competition at the population level enhanced the colonization rate of the largest juveniles as well as the growth and survival of the colonizers. Based on these results, we calculated that kin-induced colonization halves the extinction probability of a newly initiated population. Because interactions between relatives are likely to affect the ability of a species to track habitat modifications, kin-based dispersal should be considered in the study of invasion dynamics and metapopulation functioning.

Breeding distributions of north American bird species moving north as a result of climate change

Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.

Population cycles and changes in body size of the lynx in Alaska

The lynx Lynx canadensis is a common predator in the boreal forests of North America. Its population fluctuates during a 9- to 11-year cycle in synchrony with the population size of its main prey, the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus. Using adult museum specimens, we studied changes in skull (and hence body) size of the lynx in Alaska during the second half of the 20th century. The population cycle in Alaska averaged 9 years, similar to that reported in the neighbouring Yukon. Using harvest data of lynx as an estimate of population size, we found that skull size was negatively related to population size. This relationship was strongest not for the population density in the year of death (X), but for year X-3, a carry-over effect from the first year (or years) of life, indicating that conditions during the fast-growth years are determining body size. We suggest that the density-dependent effect is probably due to changes in food supply, either resulting from the adverse effects of competition or a possible diminished availability of food. Two skull parameters decreased significantly during the second half of the 20th century. We do not know the cause for the year effect and suggest that it might be due to a long-term change in the availability of prey. Canine size did not change during the study period, probably an indication that snowshoe hares maintained their status as the main prey of the lynx throughout the study period.

Environmental variation and experience-related differences in the demography of the long-lived black-browed albatross

1. It has been largely demonstrated that demographic performances of animals increase with age or experience as a result of an improvement of foraging skills, an increasing reproductive effort or a selection process. However, little is known about the age or experience-related response of populations to environmental variations. Theoretical studies consider that age-related variations of the performances are greater under more restricting conditions, but this has rarely been tested. 2. We tested this hypothesis on a long-lived species, black browed albatross Thalassarche melanophrys Temminck, using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set. We investigated the responses of a population to climate, by studying the effects of climatic factors and breeding experience on survival and breeding success. 3. First-time breeders appear to be poorer performers compared with experienced adults, with lower reproductive success and lower survival. In addition, interannual variations of demographic traits were partly explained by climatic indices, reflecting environmental variations. The survival probability of black-browed albatrosses varied with experience and climate, and differences being greater under harsh conditions. By contrast, the reproductive success of inexperienced individuals was affected by climatic fluctuations in the same way as the experienced ones. 4. First breeding event acts as a strong selective process on the highly heterogeneous class of inexperienced individuals, suggesting the increase in survival and breeding success with experience may mainly reflect a reduction in the heterogeneity among individual qualities.

Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds

The phenology of avian migration appears to be changing in response to climate change. Seemingly contradictory differences in the timing of these annual cycles have been reported in published studies. We show that differences between studies in the choice of songbird species, as well as in the measurements of migration phenology, can explain most of the reported differences. Furthermore, while earlier spring arrival is evident across these studies, trends in timing of departure show large variation between species and according to individual timing of migration (early-arriving vs. late-departing individuals). Much of the variation in departure between species could be explained by each species' migratory status. We present a detailed analysis of migrants recorded at a Danish migration site, and reveal that although shifts in migration timing can be demonstrated for almost all species, these shifts are either most pronounced in the early arriving/late departing individuals or the changes are similar. Thus most individuals do not seem to change their breeding-area residence time (BART). As BART is likely to reflect ecologically important factors, e.g. number of clutches, we expect that only small effects have been exerted on the breeding ecology of the studied species in the time period investigated.

Temporal variance reverses the impact of high mean intensity of stress in climate change experiments

Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.