Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

Varying disease-mediated selection at different life-history stages of Atlantic salmon in fresh water

Laboratory studies on associations between disease resistance and susceptibility and major histocompatibility (MH) genes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar have shown the importance of immunogenetics in understanding the capacity of populations to fight specific diseases. However, the occurrence and virulence of pathogens may vary spatially and temporally in the wild, making it more complicated to predict the overall effect that MH genes exert on fitness of natural populations and over several life-history stages. Here we show that MH variability is a significant determinant of salmon survival in fresh water, by comparing observed and expected genotype frequencies at MH and control microsatellite loci at parr and migrant stages in the wild. We found that additive allelic effects at immunogenetic loci were more likely to determine survival than dominance deviation, and that selection on certain MH alleles varied with life stage, possibly owing to varying pathogen prevalence and/or virulence over time. Our results highlight the importance of preserving genetic diversity (particularly at MH loci) in wild populations, so that they have the best chance of adapting to new and increased disease challenges as a result of projected climate warming and increasing aquaculture.

The spread of fecally transmitted parasites in socially-structured populations

Mammals are infected by a wide array of gastrointestinal parasites, including parasites that also infect humans and domesticated animals. Many of these parasites are acquired through contact with infectious stages present in soil, feces or vegetation, suggesting that ranging behavior will have a major impact on their spread. We developed an individual-based spatial simulation model to investigate how range use intensity, home range overlap, and defecation rate impact the spread of fecally transmitted parasites in a population composed of social groups (i.e., a socially structured population). We also investigated the effects of epidemiological parameters involving host and parasite mortality rates, transmissibility, disease-related mortality, and group size. The model was spatially explicit and involved the spillover of a gastrointestinal parasite from a reservoir population along the edge of a simulated reserve, which was designed to mimic the introduction pathogens into protected areas. Animals ranged randomly within a "core" area, with biased movement toward the range center when outside the core. We systematically varied model parameters using a Latin hypercube sampling design. Analyses of simulation output revealed a strong positive association between range use intensity and the prevalence of infection. Moreover, the effects of range use intensity were similar in magnitude to effects of group size, mortality rates, and the per-contact probability of transmission. Defecation rate covaried positively with gastrointestinal parasite prevalence. Greater home range overlap had no positive effects on prevalence, with a smaller core resulting in less range overlap yet more intensive use of the home range and higher prevalence. Collectively, our results reveal that parasites with fecal-oral transmission spread effectively in socially structured populations. Future application should focus on parameterizing the model with empirically derived ranging behavior for different species or populations and data on transmission characteristics of different infectious organisms.

Sponge mass mortalities in a warming Mediterranean Sea: are cyanobacteria-harboring species worse off?

Mass mortality events are increasing dramatically in all coastal marine environments. Determining the underlying causes of mass mortality events has proven difficult in the past because of the lack of prior quantitative data on populations and environmental variables. Four-year surveys of two shallow-water sponge species, Ircinia fasciculata and Sarcotragus spinosulum, were carried out in the western Mediterranean Sea. These surveys provided evidence of two severe sponge die-offs (total mortality ranging from 80 to 95% of specimens) occurring in the summers of 2008 and 2009. These events primarily affected I. fasciculata, which hosts both phototrophic and heterotrophic microsymbionts, while they did not affect S. spinosulum, which harbors only heterotrophic bacteria. We observed a significant positive correlation between the percentage of injured I. fasciculata specimens and exposure time to elevated temperature conditions in all populations, suggesting a key role of temperature in triggering mortality events. A comparative ultrastructural study of injured and healthy I. fasciculata specimens showed that cyanobacteria disappeared from injured specimens, which suggests that cyanobacterial decay could be involved in I. fasciculata mortality. A laboratory experiment confirmed that the cyanobacteria harbored by I. fasciculata displayed a significant reduction in photosynthetic efficiency in the highest temperature treatment. The sponge disease reported here led to a severe decrease in the abundance of the surveyed populations. It represents one of the most dramatic mass mortality events to date in the Mediterranean Sea.

Patterns of coral disease across the Hawaiian archipelago: relating disease to environment

In Hawaii, coral reefs occur across a gradient of biological (host abundance), climatic (sea surface temperature anomalies) and anthropogenic conditions from the human-impacted reefs of the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) to the pristine reefs of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). Coral disease surveys were conducted at 142 sites from across the Archipelago and disease patterns examined. Twelve diseases were recorded from three coral genera (Porites, Montipora, Acropora) with Porites having the highest prevalence. Porites growth anomalies (PorGAs) were significantly more prevalent within and indicative of reefs in the MHI and Porites trematodiasis (PorTrm) was significantly more prevalent within and indicative of reefs in the NWHI. Porites tissue loss syndrome (PorTLS) was also important in driving regional differences but that relationship was less clear. These results highlight the importance of understanding disease ecology when interpreting patterns of disease occurrence. PorTrm is caused by a parasitic flatworm that utilizes multiple hosts during its life cycle (fish, mollusk and coral). All three hosts must be present for the disease to occur and higher host abundance leads to higher disease prevalence. Thus, a high prevalence of PorTrm on Hawaiian reefs would be an indicator of a healthy coral reef ecosystem. In contrast, the high occurrence of PorGAs within the MHI suggests that PorGAs are related, directly or indirectly, to some environmental co-factor associated with increased human population sizes. Focusing on the three indicator diseases (PorGAs, PorTrm, PorTLS) we used statistical modeling to examine the underlying associations between disease prevalence and 14 different predictor variables (biotic and abiotic). All three diseases showed positive associations with host abundance and negative associations with thermal stress. The association with human population density differed among disease states with PorGAs showing a positive and PorTrm showing a negative association, but no significant explanatory power was offered for PorTLS.

Parasitized snails take the heat: a case of host manipulation?

Infection-induced changes in a host's thermal physiology can represent (1) a generalized host response to infection, (2) a pathological side-effect of infection, or (3), provided the parasite's development is temperature-dependent, a subtle case of host manipulation. This study investigates parasite-induced changes in the thermal biology of a first intermediate host infected by two castrating trematodes (genera Maritrema and Philophthalmus) using laboratory experiments and field surveys. The heat tolerance and temperatures selected by the snail, Zeacumantus subcarinatus, displayed alterations upon infection that differed between the two trematodes. Upon heating, snails infected by Maritrema sustained activity for longer durations than uninfected snails, followed by a more rapid recovery, and selected higher temperatures in a thermal gradient. These snails were also relatively abundant in high shore localities in the summer only, corresponding with seasonal elevated microhabitat temperatures. By contrast, Philophthalmus-infected snails fell rapidly into a coma upon heating and did not display altered thermal preferences. The respective heat tolerance of each trematode corresponded with the thermal responses induced in the snail: Maritrema survived exposure to 40°C, while Philophthalmus was less heat tolerant. Although both trematodes infect the same tissues, Philophthalmus leads to a reduction in the host's thermal tolerance, a response consistent with a pathological side effect. By contrast, Maritrema induces heat tolerance in the snail and withstood exposure to high heat. As the developmental rate and infectivity of Maritrema increase with temperature up to 25°C, one adaptive explanation for our findings is that Maritrema manipulates the snail's thermal responses to exploit warm microhabitats.

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

BACKGROUND

Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.

RESULTS

Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.

CONCLUSION

The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Does temperature regime govern the establishment of Heterobasidion annosum in Scandinavia?

We explored the reasons underlying the biogeographic distribution patterns of the economically important, wood-rotting basidiomycete Heterobasidion annosum in Sweden. Despite the commonness of suitable host trees, Heterobasidion annosum has not been recorded in the north of Sweden, whereas its relative, H. parviporum, is present throughout the country. To test the hypothesis that H. annosum has not spread to the north because of the effect of climate, mainly differences in the general temperature regime, we inoculated Norway spruce stumps and standing trees with H. annosum and H. parviporum at six field sites, three in the south and three in the north of Sweden. Three strains of both species were used in random combinations, so that each selected stump and tree was inoculated with both species at the same time. At 2 and 10 months after the inoculations, we compared the frequencies of detection of H. annosum and H. parviporum colonies at different distances from inoculation points in the stumps and in trees. The H. annosum colonies were detected only infrequently on disks cut from the inoculated stumps (0-4% of re-isolations) in both areas, whereas H. parviporum was detected much more frequently (26-47% of re-isolations). In standing trees, colonies belonging to H. annosum could be detected up to 210 cm (south) and 80 cm (north) and those belonging to H. parviporum up to 210 cm (south) and 140 cm (north) above the inoculation points. Our results suggest that difference in temperature regime does not provide an explanation for the distribution limit of H. annosum.

Climate change, precipitation and impacts on an estuarine refuge from disease

Background

Oysters play important roles in estuarine ecosystems but have suffered recently due to overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss. A tradeoff between growth rate and disease prevalence as a function of salinity makes the estuarine salinity transition of special concern for oyster survival and restoration. Estuarine salinity varies with discharge, so increases or decreases in precipitation with climate change may shift regions of low salinity and disease refuge away from optimal oyster bottom habitat, negatively impacting reproduction and survival. Temperature is an additional factor for oyster survival, and recent temperature increases have increased vulnerability to disease in higher salinity regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We examined growth, reproduction, and survival of oysters in the New York Harbor-Hudson River region, focusing on a low-salinity refuge in the estuary. Observations were during two years when rainfall was above average and comparable to projected future increases in precipitation in the region and a past period of about 15 years with high precipitation. We found a clear tradeoff between oyster growth and vulnerability to disease. Oysters survived well when exposed to intermediate salinities during two summers (2008, 2010) with moderate discharge conditions. However, increased precipitation and discharge in 2009 reduced salinities in the region with suitable benthic habitat, greatly increasing oyster mortality. To evaluate the estuarine conditions over longer periods, we applied a numerical model of the Hudson to simulate salinities over the past century. Model results suggest that much of the region with suitable benthic habitat that historically had been a low salinity refuge region may be vulnerable to higher mortality under projected increases in precipitation and discharge.

Conclusions/Significance

Predicted increases in precipitation in the northeastern United States due to climate change may lower salinities past important thresholds for oyster survival in estuarine regions with appropriate substrate, potentially disrupting metapopulation dynamics and impeding oyster restoration efforts, especially in the Hudson estuary where a large basin constitutes an excellent refuge from disease.

Frontiers in climate change-disease research

The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

Review of Panulirus argus virus 1--a decade after its discovery

In 2000, a pathogenic virus was discovered in juvenile Caribbean spiny lobsters Panulirus argus from the Florida Keys, U.S.A. Panulirus argus virus 1 (PaV1) is the first naturally occurring pathogenic virus reported from lobsters, and it profoundly affects their ecology and physiology. PaV1 is widespread in the Caribbean with infections reported in Florida (U.S.A.), St. Croix, St. Kitts, Yucatan (Mexico), Belize, and Cuba. It is most prevalent and nearly always lethal in the smallest juvenile lobsters, but this declines with increasing lobster size; adults harbor the virus, but do not present the characteristic signs of the disease. No other PaV1 hosts are known. The prevalence of PaV1 in juvenile lobsters from the Florida Keys has been stable since 1999, but has risen to nearly 11% in the eastern Yucatan since 2001. Heavily infected lobsters become sedentary, cease feeding, and die of metabolic exhaustion. Experimental routes of viral transmission include ingestion, contact, and for newly settled juveniles, free virus particles in seawater. Prior to infectiousness, healthy lobsters tend to avoid diseased lobsters and so infected juvenile lobsters mostly dwell alone, which appears to reduce disease transmission. However, avoidance of diseased individuals may result in increased shelter competition between healthy and diseased lobsters, and greater predation on infected lobsters. Little is known about PaV1 outside of Mexico and the USA, but it poses a potential threat to P. argus fisheries throughout the Caribbean.

Spatial and temporal patterns of scleractinian coral, soft coral, and zoanthid disease on a remote, near-pristine coral reef (Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific)

There is an urgent need for accurate baselines of coral disease prevalence across our oceans in order for sudden or unnatural changes to be recognized. Palmyra Atoll allows us to study disease dynamics under near-pristine, functionally intact conditions. We examined disease prevalence among all known species of scleractinian coral, soft coral and zoanthid (Palythoa) at a variety of coral reef habitats at Palmyra over a 2 yr period. In 2008, overall disease prevalence across the atoll was low (0.33%), but higher on the shallower backreef (0.88%) and reef terrace (0.80%) than on the deeper forereef (0.09%). Scleractinian coral disease prevalence was higher (0.30%) than were soft coral and zoanthid disease (0.03% combined). Growth anomalies (GAs) were the most commonly encountered lesions, with scleractinian species in the genera Astreopora (2.12%), Acropora (1.30%), and Montipora (0.98%) showing the highest prevalence atoll-wide. Discoloration necrosis (DN) was most prevalent in the zoanthid Palythoa tuberculosa (1.18%), although the soft coral Sinulana and Montipora also had a prevalence of 0.44 and 0.01%, respectively. Overall disease prevalence within permanently marked transects increased from 0.65% in 2008 to 0.79% in 2009. Palythoa DN contributed most to this increased prevalence, which coincided with rising temperatures during the 2009 El Niño. GAs on the majority of susceptible genera at Palmyra increased in number over time, and led to tissue death. Host distribution and environmental factors (e.g., temperature) appear to be important for determining spatiotemporal patterns of disease at Palmyra. More sophisticated analyses are required to tease apart the likely inter-correlated proximate drivers of disease occurrence on remote, near-pristine reefs.

Fungal community analysis in the deep-sea sediments of the Central Indian Basin by culture-independent approach

Few studies have addressed the occurrence of fungi in deep-sea sediments, characterized by elevated hydrostatic pressure, low temperature, and fluctuating nutrient conditions. We evaluated the diversity of fungi at three locations of the Central Indian Basin (CIB) at a depth of ~5,000 m using culture-independent approach. Community DNA isolated from these sediments was amplified using universal and fungal-specific internal transcribed spacers and universal 18S rDNA primer pairs. A total of 39 fungal operational taxonomic units, with 32 distinct fungal taxa were recovered from 768 clones generated from 16 environmental clone libraries. The application of multiple primers enabled the recovery of eight sequences that appeared to be new. The majority of the recovered sequences belonged to diverse phylotypes of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota. Our results suggested the existence of cosmopolitan marine fungi in the sediments of CIB. This study further demonstrated that diversity of fungi varied spatially in the CIB. Individual primer set appeared to amplify different fungal taxa occasionally. This is the first report on culture-independent diversity of fungi from the Indian Ocean.

Multistressor interactions in the zebrafish (Danio rerio): Concurrent phenanthrene exposure and Mycobacterium marinum infection

The simultaneous exposure of organisms to toxicants and disease causing agents poses a serious risk to important stocks. Worldwide, aquatic animal disease outbreaks have been increasing in both frequency and severity, and many have been associated with anthropogenic environmental change. Little is known about the complex interactions of the immune system and biotransformational pathways of vertebrates; however, urbanization and coastal development create a scenario in which a wide range of species are exposed to chemical pollutants in conjunction with a wide spectrum of ubiquitous, opportunistic pathogens. These interactions can severely compromise organismal health. Potential effects include decreased fitness, increased predation, decreased fecundity, reduced metabolic activity, suppressed immune function and mortality. Recent attention has been paid to immunomodulation in toxicant exposed fishes. In our current study we investigated the effects of the common polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon phenanthrene in conjunction with Mycobacterium marinum infection in the zebrafish, Danio rerio. The goal of our study was to elucidate the interactions between stressors in the host organism. Fish were exposed to either a high or low dose of phenanthrene, infected with M. marinum or received a combination exposure of toxicant and bacteria. Results of our study were evaluated using survivorship analysis, toxicant body burden, and histology. Our data show an interaction between M. marinum infection and exposure to a high dose of phenanthrene in the zebrafish. Survivorship was significantly reduced for animals only exposed to the high dose of phenanthrene as compared to all other experimental groups. The increased survivorship for fish exposed to both Mycobacterium and a high dose of phenanthrene suggests an antagonistic interaction between stressors. Body burden data, which show significant differences in the ratio of phenanthrene:metabolites between experimental groups, suggests a disruption of the biotransformational pathway. We postulate that the inflammatory response, initiated by bacterial infection, is impeding the ability of the zebrafish to completely metabolize phenanthrene. In addition, the correlation between reduced metabolite production and increased survival indicates that phenanthrene metabolites are more toxic than the parent compound. Our study underscores the importance of investigating multiple stressor interactions as a way to better understand complex environmental interactions.

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host-parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range.

Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene

Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

Correlation of environmental attributes with histopathology of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout naturally infected with Myxobolus cerebralis

Infection by the invasive parasite Myxobolus cerebralis (causing whirling disease in salmonids) is strongly influenced by a stream's physico-chemical characteristics, which might affect host pathology. We examined whether environmental variables of a M. cerebralis-positive tributary to Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A., correlated with the histopathology of naturally infected native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri. Host inflammatory response and cranial cartilage lesions were the main correlates with whirling behavior. Canonical correlation analyses showed that the prevalence of trout with severe lesions in the cranial and jaw cartilages was highest in stream sites with a combination of high temperature and low specific conductivity. Our results reveal that environmental components can affect when and where a pathogen resides within the host, and manifestation of disease. Recognition of the synergism among environmental and histopathology factors most conducive to whirling disease will increase our prediction and detection abilities for M. cerebralis in salmonid hosts.

Growth anomalies on the coral genera Acropora and Porites are strongly associated with host density and human population size across the Indo-Pacific

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment.

Arsenic in a speleothem from Central China: stadial-interstadial variations and implications

In a pilot study, arsenic in a stalagmite (SJ3) collected from Central China was measured, and its association with past climate and environment was explored. Most of the SJ3 arsenic concentrations ranged from 120 to 320 ppb with the highest concentrations associated with relatively warm and humid climatic phases and lowest concentrations with cold and dry phases. The SJ3 arsenic record was very similar to the manganese record of SJ3. Variations of arsenic in SJ3 might be controlled by metal oxides of iron, manganese, and aluminum in karst groundwater at the study site, which in turn were closely related with changes in past climate and environment. A considerable proportion of arsenic was in excess over manganese in SJ3, which might be related with incorporation of arsenic into the calcite lattice during the formation of SJ3. It was speculated that more arsenic was released due to stronger weathering of the surface soils and sequestrated by metal oxides in karst groundwater under warm-humid climatic phases than under cold-dry phases. This suggested that climate shift might alter arsenic balance in sedimentary areas and aquifer systems and potentially exert significant influence on global arsenic contamination.

Seasonal rainfall and runoff promote coral disease on an inshore reef

BACKGROUND

Declining water quality coupled with the effects of climate change are rapidly increasing coral diseases on reefs worldwide, although links between coral diseases and environmental parameters remain poorly understood. This is the first study to document a correlation between coral disease and water quality on an inshore reef.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The temporal dynamics of the coral disease atramentous necrosis (AN) was investigated over two years within inshore populations of Montipora aequituberculata in the central Great Barrier Reef, in relation to rainfall, salinity, temperature, water column chlorophyll a, suspended solids, sedimentation, dissolved organic carbon, and particulate nitrogen, phosphorus and organic carbon. Overall, mean AN prevalence was 10-fold greater during summer wet seasons than winter dry seasons. A 2.5-fold greater mean disease abundance was detected during the summer of 2009 (44 ± SE 6.7 diseased colonies per 25 m(2)), when rainfall was 1.6-fold greater than in the summer of 2008. Two water quality parameters explained 67% of the variance in monthly disease prevalence in a Partial Least Squares regression analysis; disease abundance was negatively correlated with salinity (R2 = -0.6) but positively correlated with water column particulate organic carbon concentration (R2 = 0.32). Seasonal temperature patterns were also positively correlated with disease abundance, but explained only a small portion of the variance.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The results suggest that rainfall and associated runoff may facilitate seasonal disease outbreaks, potentially by reducing host fitness or by increasing pathogen virulence due to higher availability of nutrients and organic matter. In the future, rainfall and seawater temperatures are likely to increase due to climate change which may lead to decreased health of inshore reefs.

Host characteristics and environmental factors differentially drive the burden and pathogenicity of an ectoparasite: a multilevel causal analysis

1. Understanding the ecological factors driving the burden and pathogenicity of parasites is challenging. Indeed, the dynamics of host-parasite interactions is driven by factors organized across nested hierarchical levels (e.g. hosts, localities), and indirect effects are expected owing to interactions between levels. 2. In this study, we combined Bayesian multilevel models, path analyses and a model selection procedure to account for these complexities and to decipher the relative effects of host- and environment-related factors on the burden and the pathogenicity of an ectoparasite (Tracheliastes polycolpus) on its fish host (Leuciscus leuciscus). We also tested the year-to-year consistency of the relationships linking these factors to the burden and the pathogenic effects of T. polycolpus. 3. We found significant relationships between the parasite burden and host-related factors: body length and age were positively related to parasite burden and heterozygous hosts displayed a higher parasite burden. In contrast, both host- and environment-related factors were linked to pathogenic effects. Pathogenicity was correlated negatively with host body length and positively with age; this illustrates that some factors (e.g. body length) showed inverse relationships with parasite burden and pathogenicity. Pathogenic effects were stronger in cooler upstream sites and where host density was lower. Path analyses revealed that these relationships between environment-related factors and pathogenic effects were direct and were not indirect relationships mediated by the host characteristics. Finally, we found that the strength and the shape of certain relationships were consistent across years, while they were clearly not for some others. 4. Our study illustrates that considering conjointly causal relationships among factors and the hierarchical structure of host-parasite interactions is appropriate for dissecting the complex links between hosts, parasites and their common environment.

First evidence of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster from Cuba and clinical estimation of its prevalence

The present study documents the first finding of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster Panulirus argus from Cuba. Samples originated from 2 nursery sites, Matias Keys and Bocas de Alonso Keys, and 2 fishing sites, La Grifa and El Ramajo. Lobsters from the nursery sites (artificial reefs) were collected by SCUBA diving, while those from the fishing sites were collected from artificial shelters known as 'casitas cubanas'. In these shelters it was observed that healthy lobsters tended to avoid infected lobsters. Prevalence of PaV1 in the sampling sites was assessed by using clinical signs such as lethargy, an opaque reddish shell coloration, and milky white hemolymph with loss of clotting activity. The presence of PaV1 was subsequently confirmed by histology and PCR of tissues and hemolymph samples from suspected individuals. Histological sections of the hepatopancreas, gills, gonads, and gut showed infected hemocytes with hypertrophied nuclei and eosinophilic intranuclear Cowdry type A inclusions. A 499 bp band was observed by PCR. The sequence of the amplified fragments was 96% similar to the PaV1 sequence in GenBank. The overall mean prevalence of PaV1 was 4.48% (range: 0 to 9.3%) after pooling the results of the 4 sampling sites.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Physiological performance of an Alaskan shrub (Alnus fruticosa) in response to disease (Valsa melanodiscus) and water stress

• Following the decades-long warming and drying trend in Alaska, there is mounting evidence that temperature-induced drought stress is associated with disease outbreaks in the boreal forest. Recent evidence of this trend is an outbreak of Cytospora canker disease (fungal pathogen Valsa melanodiscus (anamorph = Cytospora umbrina)) on Alnus species. • For Alnus fruticosa, we examined the effects of water stress on disease predisposition, and the effects of disease and water stress on host physiology. In two trials, we conducted a full-factorial experiment that crossed two levels of water stress with three types of inoculum (two isolates of V. melanodiscus, one control isolate). • Water stress was not required for disease predisposition. However, the effects of water stress and disease on host physiology were greatest near the peak phenological stage of the host and during hot, dry conditions. During this time, water stress and disease reduced light-saturated photosynthesis (-30%), light saturation point (-60%) and stomatal conductance (-40%). • Our results depended on the timing of water stress and disease in relation to host phenology and the environment. These factors should not be overlooked in attempts to generalize predictions about the role of temperature-induced drought stress in this pathosystem.

Glacial refugia in pathogens: European genetic structure of anther smut pathogens on Silene latifolia and Silene dioica

Climate warming is predicted to increase the frequency of invasions by pathogens and to cause the large-scale redistribution of native host species, with dramatic consequences on the health of domesticated and wild populations of plants and animals. The study of historic range shifts in response to climate change, such as during interglacial cycles, can help in the prediction of the routes and dynamics of infectious diseases during the impending ecosystem changes. Here we studied the population structure in Europe of two Microbotryum species causing anther smut disease on the plants Silene latifolia and Silene dioica. Clustering analyses revealed the existence of genetically distinct groups for the pathogen on S. latifolia, providing a clear-cut example of European phylogeography reflecting recolonization from southern refugia after glaciation. The pathogen genetic structure was congruent with the genetic structure of its host species S. latifolia, suggesting dependence of the migration pathway of the anther smut fungus on its host. The fungus, however, appeared to have persisted in more numerous and smaller refugia than its host and to have experienced fewer events of large-scale dispersal. The anther smut pathogen on S. dioica also showed a strong phylogeographic structure that might be related to more northern glacial refugia. Differences in host ecology probably played a role in these differences in the pathogen population structure. Very high selfing rates were inferred in both fungal species, explaining the low levels of admixture between the genetic clusters. The systems studied here indicate that migration patterns caused by climate change can be expected to include pathogen invasions that follow the redistribution of their host species at continental scales, but also that the recolonization by pathogens is not simply a mirror of their hosts, even for obligate biotrophs, and that the ecology of hosts and pathogen mating systems likely affects recolonization patterns.

Foliar fungal pathogens and grassland biodiversity

By attacking plants, herbivorous mammals, insects, and belowground pathogens are known to play an important role in maintaining biodiversity in grasslands. Foliar fungal pathogens are ubiquitous in grassland ecosystems, but little is known about their role as drivers of community composition and diversity. Here we excluded foliar fungal pathogens from perennial grassland by using fungicide to determine the effect of natural levels of disease on an otherwise undisturbed plant community. Importantly, we excluded foliar fungal pathogens along with rabbits, insects, and mollusks in a full factorial design, which allowed a comparison of pathogen effects along with those of better studied plant enemies. This revealed that fungal pathogens substantially reduced aboveground plant biomass and promoted plant diversity and that this especially benefited legumes. The scale of pathogen effects on productivity and biodiversity was similar to that of rabbits and insects, but different plant species responded to the exclusion of the three plant enemies. These results suggest that theories of plant coexistence and management of biodiversity in grasslands should consider foliar fungal pathogens as potentially important drivers of community composition.

Potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases: a review and proposed research plan

BACKGROUND

Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment.

OBJECTIVE

We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper.

DATA SOURCES AND SYNTHESIS

We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multidisciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios.

Analysis of evolutionarily conserved innate immune components in coral links immunity and symbiosis

Reef-building corals are representatives of one of the earliest diverging metazoan lineages and are experiencing increases in bleaching events (breakdown of the coral-Symbiodinium symbiosis) and disease outbreaks. The present study investigates the roles of two pattern recognition proteins, the mannose binding lectin Millectin and a complement factor C3-like protein (C3-Am), in the coral Acropora millepora. The results indicate that the innate immune functions of these molecules are conserved and arose early in evolution. C3-Am is expressed in response to injury, and may function as an opsonin. In contrast, Millectin expression is up-regulated in response to lipopolysaccharide and peptidoglycan. These observations, coupled with localization of Millectin in nematocysts in epidermal tissue, and reported binding of pathogens, are consistent with a key role for the lectin in innate immunity. Furthermore, Millectin was consistently detected binding to the symbiont Symbiodinium in vivo, indicating that the Millectin function of recognition and binding of non-self-entities may have been co-opted from an ancient innate immune system into a role in symbiosis.

Human disturbance alters endocrine and immune responses in the Galapagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus)

Anthropogenic disturbance is a relevant and widespread facilitator of environmental change and there is clear evidence that it impacts natural populations. While population-level responses to major anthropogenic changes have been well studied, individual physiological responses to mild disturbance can be equally critical to the long-term survival of a species, yet they remain largely unexamined. The current study investigated the impact of seemingly low-level anthropogenic disturbance (ecotourism) on stress responsiveness and specific fitness-related immune measures in different breeding stages of the marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus). Specifically, we found stress-induced elevations in plasma corticosterone among tourist-exposed populations relative to undisturbed populations. We also found changes in multiple immunological responses associated with stress-related effects of human disturbance, including bacterial killing ability, cutaneous wound healing, and hemolytic complement activity, and the responses varied according to reproductive state. By identifying health-related consequences of human disturbance, this study provides critical insight into the conservation of a well-known species that has a very distinct ecology. The study also broadens the foundation of knowledge needed to understand the global significance of various levels of human disturbance.

Temperature induced bacterial virulence and bleaching disease in a chemically defended marine macroalga

Host-pathogen interactions have been widely studied in humans and terrestrial plants, but are much less well explored in marine systems. Here we show that a marine macroalga, Delisea pulchra, utilizes a chemical defence - furanones - to inhibit colonization and infection by a novel bacterial pathogen, Ruegeria sp. R11, and that infection by R11 is temperature dependent. Ruegeria sp. R11 formed biofilms, invaded and bleached furanone-free, but not furanone-producing D. pulchra thalli, at high (24°C) but not low (19°C) temperatures. Bleaching is commonly observed in natural populations of D. pulchra near Sydney, Australia, during the austral summer when ocean temperatures are at their peak and the chemical defences of the alga are reduced. Furanones, produced by D. pulchra as a chemical defence, inhibit quorum sensing (QS) in bacteria, and this may play a role in furanone inhibition of R11 infection of furanone-free thalli as R11 produces QS signals. This interplay between temperature, an algal chemical defence mechanism and bacterial virulence demonstrates the complex impact environmental change can have on an ecosystem.

Induced chemical defenses in a freshwater macrophyte suppress herbivore fitness and the growth of associated microbes

The freshwater macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana induces a chemical defense when attacked by either the crayfish Procambrus clarkii or the snail Pomacea canaliculata. Induction by either consumer lowers the palatability of the plant to both consumers. When offered food ad libitum, snails feeding on non-induced C. caroliniana grew 2.6-2.7 times more than those feeding on induced C. caroliniana. Because snails fed less on induced plants, this could be a behavioral effect (reduced feeding), a physiological effect of the induced metabolites on the consumer, or both. To assess these possibilities, we made artificial diets with lipid extracts of induced versus non-induced C. caroliniana and restricted control snails to consuming only as much as treatment snails consumed. Growth measured as shell diameter was significantly lower on the diet containing extract from induced, as opposed to non-induced, plants; change in snail mass was more variable and showed a similar, but non-significant, trend. Thus, snails may reduce feeding on induced plants to avoid suppression of fitness. The induced defenses also suppressed growth of co-occurring microbes that might attack the plant through herbivore-generated feeding scars. When two bacteria and three fungi isolated from C. caroliniana surfaces were cultured with the lipid extract from induced and non-induced C. caroliniana, both extracts inhibited the microbes, but the induced extract was more potent against three of the five potential pathogens. Thus, induced plant defenses can act against both direct consumers and microbes that might invade the plant indirectly through herbivore-generated wounds.

Wild canids, domestic dogs and their pathogens in Southeast Brazil: disease threats for canid conservation

Wild canids are under many pressures, including habitat loss, fragmentation and disease. The current lack of information on the status of wildlife health may hamper conservation efforts in Brazil. In this paper, we examined the prevalence of canine pathogens in 21 free-ranging wild canids, comprising 12 Cerdocyon thous (crab-eating fox), 7 Chrysocyon brachyurus (maned wolf), 2 Lycalopex vetulus (hoary fox), and 70 non-vaccinated domestic dogs from the Serra do Cipó National Park area, Southeast Brazil. For wild canids, seroprevalence of antibodies to canine parvovirus, canine adenovirus, canine coronavirus and Toxoplasma gondii was 100 (21/21), 33 (7/21), 5 (1/19) and 68 (13/19) percent, respectively. Antibodies against canine distemper virus, Neospora caninum or Babesia spp. were not found. We tested domestic dogs for antibodies to canine parvovirus, canine distemper virus and Babesia spp., and seroprevalences were 59 (41/70), 66 (46/70), and 42 (40/70) percent, respectively, with significantly higher prevalence in domestic dogs for CDV (P < 0.001) and Babesia spp. (P = 0.002), and in wild canids for CPV (P < 0.001). We report for the first time evidence of exposure to canine coronavirus in wild hoary foxes, and Platynossomun sp. infection in wild maned wolves. Maned wolves are more exposed to helminths than crab-eating foxes, with a higher prevalence of Trichuridae and Ancylostomidae in the area. The most common ectoparasites were Amblyomma cajennense, A. tigrinum, and Pulex irritans. Such data is useful information on infectious diseases of Brazilian wild canids, revealing pathogens as a threat to wild canids in the area. Control measures are discussed.

Modeling patterns of coral bleaching at a remote Central Pacific atoll

A mild bleaching event (9.2% prevalence) at Palmyra Atoll occurred in response to the 2009 ENSO, when mean water temperature reached 29.8-30.1 degrees C. Prevalence among both abundant and sparse taxa varied with no clear pattern in susceptibility relating to coral morphology. Seven taxon-specific models showed that turbidity exacerbated while prior exposure to higher background temperatures alleviated bleaching, with these predictors explaining an average 16.3% and 11.5% variation in prevalence patterns, respectively. Positive associations occurred between bleaching prevalence and both immediate temperature during the bleaching event (average 8.4% variation explained) and increased sand cover (average 3.7%). Despite these associations, mean unexplained variation in prevalence equalled 59%. Lower bleaching prevalence in areas experiencing higher background temperatures suggests acclimation to temperature stress among several coral genera, while WWII modifications may still be impacting the reefs via shoreline sediment re-distribution and increased turbidity, exacerbating coral bleaching susceptibility during periods of high temperature stress.

Summer hot snaps and winter conditions: modelling white syndrome outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef corals

Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r² = 0.953) between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap) and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction in disease outbreaks occurred following especially cold winters (Cold Snap), potentially related to a reduction in pathogen loading. Furthermore, mild winters (i.e., neither excessively cool nor warm) frequently preceded disease outbreaks. In contrast, disease outbreaks did not typically occur following warm winters, potentially because of increased disease resistance of the coral host. Understanding the balance between the effects of warm and cold winters on disease outbreak will be important in a warming climate. Combining the influence of winter and summer thermal effects resulted in an algorithm that yields both a Seasonal Outlook of disease risk at the conclusion of winter and near real-time monitoring of Outbreak Risk during summer. This satellite-derived system can provide coral reef managers with an assessment of risk three-to-six months in advance of the summer season that can then be refined using near-real-time summer observations. This system can enhance the capacity of managers to prepare for and respond to possible disease outbreaks and focus research efforts to increase understanding of environmental impacts on coral disease in this era of rapidly changing climate.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Climate change promotes the emergence of serious disease outbreaks of filarioid nematodes

Filarioid parasites represent major health hazards with important medical, veterinary, and economic implications, and considerable potential to affect the everyday lives of tens of millions of people globally (World Health Organization, 2007). Scenarios for climate change vary latitudinally and regionally and involve direct and indirect linkages for increasing temperature and the dissemination, amplification, and invasiveness of vector-borne parasites. High latitude regions are especially influenced by global climate change and thus may be prone to altered associations and dynamics for complex host-pathogen assemblages and emergence of disease with cascading effects on ecosystem structure. Although the potential for substantial ecological perturbation has been identified, few empirical observations have emanated from systems across the Holarctic. Coincidental with decades of warming, and anomalies of high temperature and humidity in the sub-Arctic region of Fennoscandia, the mosquito-borne filarioid nematode Setaria tundra is now associated with emerging epidemic disease resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality for reindeer and moose. We describe a host-parasite system that involves reindeer, arthropods, and nematodes, which may contribute as a factor to ongoing declines documented for this ungulate species across northern ecosystems. We demonstrate that mean summer temperatures exceeding 14 degrees C drive the emergence of disease due to S. tundra. An association between climate and emergence of filarioid parasites is a challenge to ecosystem services with direct effects on public health, sustainability of free-ranging and domestic ungulates, and ultimately food security for subsistence cultures at high latitudes.

Tracking Cholera in Coastal Regions using Satellite Observations

Cholera remains a significant health threat across the globe. The pattern and magnitude of the seven global pandemics suggest that cholera outbreaks primarily originate in coastal regions and then spread inland through secondary means. Cholera bacteria show strong association with plankton abundance in coastal ecosystems. This review study investigates relationship(s) between cholera incidence and coastal processes and explores utility of using remote sensing data to track coastal plankton blooms, using chlorophyll as a surrogate variable for plankton abundance, and subsequent cholera outbreaks. Most studies over the last several decades have primarily focused on the microbiological and epidemiological understanding of cholera outbreaks. Accurate identification and mechanistic understanding of large scale climatic, geophysical and oceanic processes governing cholera-chlorophyll relationship is important for developing cholera prediction models. Development of a holistic understanding of these processes requires long and reliable chlorophyll dataset(s), which are beginning to be available through satellites. We have presented a schematic pathway and a modeling framework that relate cholera with various hydroclimatic and oceanic variables for understanding disease dynamics using latest advances in remote sensing. Satellite data, with its unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage, have potentials to monitor coastal processes and track cholera outbreaks in endemic regions.

Pathogen-induced rapid evolution in a vertebrate life-history trait

Anthropogenic factors, including climate warming, are increasing the incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases worldwide. Infectious diseases caused by pathogenic parasites can have severe impacts on host survival, thereby altering the selection regime and inducing evolutionary responses in their hosts. Knowledge about such evolutionary consequences in natural populations is critical to mitigate potential ecological and economic effects. However, studies on pathogen-induced trait changes are scarce and the pace of evolutionary change is largely unknown, particularly in vertebrates. Here, we use a time series from long-term monitoring of perch to estimate temporal trends in the maturation schedule before and after a severe pathogen outbreak. We show that the disease induced a phenotypic change from a previously increasing to a decreasing size at maturation, the most important life-history transition in animals. Evolutionary rates imposed by the pathogen were high and comparable to those reported for populations exposed to intense human harvesting. Pathogens thus represent highly potent drivers of adaptive phenotypic evolution in vertebrates.