Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future

Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Organic Aerosol Growth Mechanisms and Their Climate-Forcing Implications

Surface- and volume-limited chemical reactions on and in atmospheric aerosol particles cause growth while changing organic composition by 13 to 24% per day. Many of these particles contain carbonaceous components from mineral dust and combustion emissions in Africa, Asia, and North America and reveal reaction rates that are three times slower than those typically used in climate models. These slower rates for converting from volatile or hydrophobic to condensed and hygroscopic organic compounds increase carbonaceous particle burdens in climate models by 70%, producing organic aerosol climate forcings of as much as -0.8 watt per square meter cooling and +0.3 watt per square meter warming.

Sulfur pollution suppression of the wetland methane source in the 20th and 21st centuries

Natural wetlands form the largest source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Emission of this powerful greenhouse gas from wetlands is known to depend on climate, with increasing temperature and rainfall both expected to increase methane emissions. This study, combining our field and controlled environment manipulation studies in Europe and North America, reveals an additional control: an emergent pattern of increasing suppression of methane (CH(4)) emission from peatlands with increasing sulfate (SO(4)(2-)-S) deposition, within the range of global acid deposition. We apply a model of this relationship to demonstrate the potential effect of changes in global sulfate deposition from 1960 to 2080 on both northern peatland and global wetland CH(4) emissions. We estimate that sulfur pollution may currently counteract climate-induced growth in the wetland source, reducing CH(4) emissions by approximately 15 Tg or 8% smaller than it would be in the absence of global acid deposition. Our findings suggest that by 2030 sulfur pollution may be sufficient to reduce CH(4) emissions by 26 Tg or 15% of the total wetland source, a proportion as large as other components of the CH(4) budget that have until now received far greater attention. We conclude that documented increases in atmospheric CH(4) concentration since the late 19th century are likely due to factors other than the global warming of wetlands.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET

AERONET, a network of well calibrated sunphotometers, provides data on aerosol optical depth and absorption optical depth at >250 sites around the world. The spectral range of AERONET allows discrimination between constituents that absorb most strongly in the UV region, such as soil dust and organic carbon, and the more ubiquitously absorbing black carbon (BC). AERONET locations, primarily continental, are not representative of the global mean, but they can be used to calibrate global aerosol climatologies produced by tracer transport models. We find that the amount of BC in current climatologies must be increased by a factor of 2-4 to yield best agreement with AERONET, in the approximation in which BC is externally mixed with other aerosols. The inferred climate forcing by BC, regardless of whether it is internally or externally mixed, is approximately 1 W/m2, most of which is probably anthropogenic. This positive forcing (warming) by BC must substantially counterbalance cooling by anthropogenic reflective aerosols. Thus, especially if reflective aerosols such as sulfates are reduced, it is important to reduce BC to minimize global warming.