Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity

Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies.

Combined effects of land use and hunting on distributions of tropical mammals

Land use and hunting are 2 major pressures on biodiversity in the tropics. Yet, their combined impacts have not been systematically quantified at a large scale. We estimated the effects of both pressures on the distributions of 1884 tropical mammal species by integrating species' range maps, detailed land-use maps (1992 and 2015), species-specific habitat preference data, and a hunting pressure model. We further identified areas where the combined impacts were greatest (hotspots) and least (coolspots) to determine priority areas for mitigation or prevention of the pressures. Land use was the main driver of reduced distribution of all mammal species considered. Yet, hunting pressure caused additional reductions in large-bodied species' distributions. Together, land use and hunting reduced distributions of species by 41% (SD 30) on average (year 2015). Overlap between impacts was only 2% on average. Land use contributed more to the loss of distribution (39% on average) than hunting (4% on average). However, hunting reduced the distribution of large mammals by 29% on average; hence, large mammals lost a disproportional amount of area due to the combination of both pressures. Gran Chaco, the Atlantic Forest, and Thailand had high levels of impact across the species (hotspots of area loss). In contrast, the Amazon and Congo Basins, the Guianas, and Borneo had relatively low levels of impact (coolspots of area loss). Overall, hunting pressure and human land use increased from 1992 to 2015 and corresponding losses in distribution increased from 38% to 41% on average across the species. To effectively protect tropical mammals, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously because their effects are highly complementary. Our spatially detailed and species-specific results may support future national and global conservation agendas, including the design of post-2020 protected area targets and strategies.

Plant extinction excels plant speciation in the Anthropocene

BACKGROUND

In the past several millenniums, we have domesticated several crop species that are crucial for human civilization, which is a symbol of significant human influence on plant evolution. A pressing question to address is if plant diversity will increase or decrease in this warming world since contradictory pieces of evidence exit of accelerating plant speciation and plant extinction in the Anthropocene.

RESULTS

Comparison may be made of the Anthropocene with the past geological times characterised by a warming climate, e.g., the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55.8 million years ago (Mya)-a period of "crocodiles in the Arctic", during which plants saw accelerated speciation through autopolyploid speciation. Three accelerators of plant speciation were reasonably identified in the Anthropocene, including cities, polar regions and botanical gardens where new plant species might be accelerating formed through autopolyploid speciation and hybridization.

CONCLUSIONS

However, this kind of positive effect of climate warming on new plant species formation would be thoroughly offset by direct and indirect intensive human exploitation and human disturbances that cause habitat loss, deforestation, land use change, climate change, and pollution, thus leading to higher extinction risk than speciation in the Anthropocene. At last, four research directions are proposed to deepen our understanding of how plant traits affect speciation and extinction, why we need to make good use of polar regions to study the mechanisms of dispersion and invasion, how to maximize the conservation of plant genetics, species, and diverse landscapes and ecosystems and a holistic perspective on plant speciation and extinction is needed to integrate spatiotemporally.

Are Secondary Forests Ready for Climate Change? It Depends on Magnitude of Climate Change, Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Legacies

In this review and synthesis paper, we review the resilience of secondary forests to climate change through the lenses of ecosystem legacies and landscape diversity. Ecosystem legacy of secondary forests was categorized as continuous forest, non-continuous forest, reassembled after conversion to other land uses, and novel reassembled forests of non-native species. Landscape diversity, including landforms that create varied local climatic and soil conditions, can buffer changing climate to some extent by allowing species from warmer climates to exist on warm microsites, while also providing refugial locations for species that grow in cool climates. We present five frames that allow forest managers to visualize a trajectory of change in the context of projected regional climate change, which are: Frame 1 (persistence), keep the same dominant tree species with little change; Frame 2 (moderate change), keep the same tree species with large changes in relative abundance; Frame 3 (forest biome change), major turnover in dominant tree species to a different forest biome; Frame 4 (forest loss), change from a forest to a non-forest biome; and Frame 5 (planted novel ecosystem), establish a novel ecosystem to maintain forest. These frames interact with ecosystem legacies and landscape diversity to determine levels of ecosystem resilience in a changing climate. Although forest readiness to adapt to Frame 1 and 2 scenarios, which would occur with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, is high, a business as usual climate change scenario would likely overwhelm the capacity of ecosystem legacies to buffer forest response, so that many forests would change to warmer forest biomes or non-forested biomes. Furthermore, the interactions among frames, legacies, and landscape diversity influence the transient dynamics of forest change; only Frame 1 leads to stable endpoints, while the other frames would have transient dynamics of change for the remainder of the 21st century.

Cost-effective priorities for the expansion of global terrestrial protected areas: Setting post-2020 global and national targets

Biodiversity loss is a social and ecological emergency, and calls have been made for the global expansion of protected areas (PAs) to tackle this crisis. It is unclear, however, where best to locate new PAs to protect biodiversity cost-effectively. To answer this question, we conducted a spatial meta-analysis by overlaying seven global biodiversity templates to identify conservation priority zones. These are then combined with low human impact areas to identify cost-effective zones (CEZs) for PA designation. CEZs cover around 38% of global terrestrial area, of which only 24% is currently covered by existing PAs. To protect more CEZs, we propose three scenarios with conservative, moderate, and ambitious targets, which aim to protect 19, 26, and 43% of global terrestrial area, respectively. These three targets are set for each Convention on Biological Diversity party with spatially explicit CEZs identified, providing valuable decision support for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Toward Unifying Global Hotspots of Wild and Domesticated Biodiversity

Global biodiversity hotspots are areas containing high levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Similarly, regions of agriculturally relevant diversity have been identified where many domesticated plants and animals originated, and co-occurred with their wild ancestors and relatives. The agro-biodiversity in these regions has, likewise, often been considered threatened. Biodiversity and agro-biodiversity hotspots partly overlap, but their geographic intricacies have rarely been investigated together. Here we review the history of these two concepts and explore their geographic relationship by analysing global distribution and human use data for all plants, and for major crops and associated wild relatives. We highlight a geographic continuum between agro-biodiversity hotspots that contain high richness in species that are intensively used and well known by humanity (i.e., major crops and most viewed species on Wikipedia) and biodiversity hotspots encompassing species that are less heavily used and documented (i.e., crop wild relatives and species lacking information on Wikipedia). Our contribution highlights the key considerations needed for further developing a unifying concept of agro-biodiversity hotspots that encompasses multiple facets of diversity (including genetic and phylogenetic) and the linkage with overall biodiversity. This integration will ultimately enhance our understanding of the geography of human-plant interactions and help guide the preservation of nature and its contributions to people.

Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth's remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%-34%) and low (48%-56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non-permanent ice- or snow-covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost.

Reframing the Wilderness Concept can Bolster Collaborative Conservation

Indigenous territories represent ~45% of land categorized as wilderness in the Amazon, but account for <15% of all forest loss on this land. At a time when the Amazon faces unprecedented pressures, overcoming polarization and aligning the goals of wilderness defenders and Indigenous peoples is paramount, to avoid environmental degradation.

Regional Mapping and Spatial Distribution Analysis of Canopy Palms in an Amazon Forest Using Deep Learning and VHR Images

Mapping plant species at the regional scale to provide information for ecologists and forest managers is a challenge for the remote sensing community. Here, we use a deep learning algorithm called U-net and very high-resolution multispectral images (0.5 m) from GeoEye satellite to identify, segment and map canopy palms over ∼3000 km 2 of Amazonian forest. The map was used to analyse the spatial distribution of canopy palm trees and its relation to human disturbance and edaphic conditions. The overall accuracy of the map was 95.5% and the F1-score was 0.7. Canopy palm trees covered 6.4% of the forest canopy and were distributed in more than two million patches that can represent one or more individuals. The density of canopy palms is affected by human disturbance. The post-disturbance density in secondary forests seems to be related to the type of disturbance, being higher in abandoned pasture areas and lower in forests that have been cut once and abandoned. Additionally, analysis of palm trees’ distribution shows that their abundance is controlled naturally by local soil water content, avoiding both flooded and waterlogged areas near rivers and dry areas on the top of the hills. They show two preferential habitats, in the low elevation above the large rivers, and in the slope directly below the hill tops. Overall, their distribution over the region indicates a relatively pristine landscape, albeit within a forest that is critically endangered because of its location between two deforestation fronts and because of illegal cutting. New tree species distribution data, such as the map of all adult canopy palms produced in this work, are urgently needed to support Amazon species inventory and to understand their distribution and diversity.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.

Road development in Asia: Assessing the range-wide risks to tigers

Roads are proliferating worldwide at an unprecedented rate, with potentially severe impacts on wildlife. We calculated the extent and potential impacts of road networks across the 1,160,000-km2, 13-country range of the globally endangered tiger (Panthera tigris)-a conservation umbrella species. We found that roads were pervasive, totaling 134,000 km across tiger conservation landscapes (TCLs), even in tiger priority sites and protected areas. Approximately 43% of the area where tiger breeding occurs and 57% of the area in TCLs fell within the road-effect zone. Consequently, current road networks may be decreasing tiger and prey abundances by more than 20%. Nearly 24,000 km of new roads will be built in TCLs by 2050, stimulated through major investment projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative. Given that roads will be a pervasive challenge to tiger recovery in the future, we urge decision-makers to make sustainable road development a top priority.

Mapping co-benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity to inform conservation policy and action

Integrated high-resolution maps of carbon stocks and biodiversity that identify areas of potential co-benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation can help facilitate the implementation of global climate and biodiversity commitments at local levels. However, the multi-dimensional nature of biodiversity presents a major challenge for understanding, mapping and communicating where and how biodiversity benefits coincide with climate benefits. A new integrated approach to biodiversity is therefore needed. Here, we (a) present a new high-resolution map of global above- and below-ground carbon stored in biomass and soil, (b) quantify biodiversity values using two complementary indices (BIp and BIr) representing proactive and reactive approaches to conservation, and (c) examine patterns of carbon-biodiversity overlap by identifying 'hotspots' (20% highest values for both aspects). Our indices integrate local diversity and ecosystem intactness, as well as regional ecosystem intactness across the broader area supporting a similar natural assemblage of species to the location of interest. The western Amazon Basin, Central Africa and Southeast Asia capture the last strongholds of highest local biodiversity and ecosystem intactness worldwide, while the last refuges for unique biological communities whose habitats have been greatly reduced are mostly found in the tropical Andes and central Sundaland. There is 38 and 5% overlap in carbon and biodiversity hotspots, for proactive and reactive conservation, respectively. Alarmingly, only around 12 and 21% of these proactive and reactive hotspot areas, respectively, are formally protected. This highlights that a coupled approach is urgently needed to help achieve both climate and biodiversity global targets. This would involve (1) restoring and conserving unprotected, degraded ecosystems, particularly in the Neotropics and Indomalaya, and (2) retaining the remaining strongholds of intactness. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.