No HIV stage is dominant in driving the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

Harnessing the prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy to address HIV and tuberculosis

After 30 years we are still struggling to address a devastating HIV pandemic in which over 25 million people have died. In 2010, an estimated 34 million people were living with HIV, around 70% of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, in 2009 there were an estimated 1.2 million new HIV-associated TB cases, and tuberculosis (TB) accounted for 24% of HIV-related deaths. By the end of 2010, 6.6 million people were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART), around 42% of those in need as defined by the 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Despite this achievement, around 9 million people were eligible and still in need of treatment, and new infections (approximately 2.6 million in 2010 alone) continue to add to the future caseload. This combined with the international fiscal crisis has led to a growing concern regarding weakening of the international commitment to universal access and delivery of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The recently launched UNAIDS/WHO Treatment 2.0 platform calls for accelerated simplification of ART, in line with a public health approach, to achieve and sustain universal access to ART, including maximizing the HIV and TB preventive benefit of ART by treating people earlier, in line with WHO 2010 normative guidance. The potential individual and public health prevention benefits of using treatment in the prevention of HIV and TB enhance the value of the universal access pledge from a life-saving initiative, to a strategic investment aimed at ending the HIV epidemic. This review analyzes the gaps and summarizes the evidence regarding ART in the prevention of HIV and TB.

Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV

Thirty years after HIV first appeared it has killed close to 30 million people but transmission continues unchecked. In 2009, an estimated 1.8 million lives were lost and 2.6 million more people were infected with HIV [1]. To cut transmission, many social, behavioural and biomedical interventions have been developed, tested and tried but have had little impact on the epidemic in most countries. One substantial success has been the development of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) that reduces viral load and restores immune function. This raises the possibility of using ART not only to treat people but also to prevent new HIV infections. Here we consider the impact of ART on the transmission of HIV and show how it could help to control the epidemic. Much needs to be known and understood concerning the impact of early treatment with ART on the prognosis for individual patients and on transmission. We review the current literature on factors associated with modelling treatment for prevention and illustrate the potential impact using existing models. We focus on generalized epidemics in sub- Saharan Africa, with an emphasis on South Africa, where transmission is mainly heterosexual and which account for an estimated 17% of all people living with HIV. We also make reference to epidemics among men who have sex with men and injection drug users where appropriate. We discuss ways in which using treatment as prevention can be taken forward knowing that this can only be the beginning of what must become an inclusive dialogue among all of those concerned to stop acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).

The role of acute and early HIV infection in the spread of HIV and implications for transmission prevention strategies in Lilongwe, Malawi: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

HIV transmission risk is higher during acute and early HIV infection than it is during chronic infection, but the contribution of early infection to the spread of HIV is controversial. We estimated the contribution of early infection to HIV incidence in Lilongwe, Malawi, and predict the future effect of hypothetical prevention interventions targeted at early infection only, chronic infection only, or both stages.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic mathematical model describing heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by detailed behavioural and viral-load data collected in Lilongwe. We included sexual contact within and outside of steady pairs and divided the infectious period into intervals to allow for changes in transmissibility by infection stage. We used a Bayesian melding approach to fit the model to HIV prevalence data collected between 1987 and 2005 at Lilongwe antenatal clinics. We assessed interventions that reduced the per-contact transmission probability to 0.00003 in people receiving them, and varied the proportion of individuals receiving the intervention in each stage.

FINDINGS

We estimated that 38.4% (95% credible interval 18.6-52.3) of HIV transmissions in Lilongwe are attributable to sexual contact with individuals with early infection. Interventions targeted at only early infection substantially reduced HIV prevalence, but did not lead to elimination, even with 100% coverage. Interventions targeted at only chronic infections also reduced HIV prevalence, but coverage levels of 95-99% were needed for the elimination of HIV. In scenarios with less than 95% coverage of interventions targeted at chronic infections, additional interventions reaching 25-75% of individuals with early infection reduced HIV prevalence substantially.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that early infection plays an important part in HIV transmission in this sub-Saharan African setting. Without near-complete coverage, interventions during chronic infection will probably have incomplete effectiveness unless complemented by strategies targeting individuals with early HIV infection.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, University of North Carolina Center for AIDS Research.

Acute HIV-1 Infection

In 2009, the United Nations Estimated that 33.2 Million People worldwide were living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and that 2.6 million people had been newly infected.1 The need for effective HIV-1 prevention has never been greater. In this review, we address recent critical advances in our understanding of HIV-1 transmission and acute HIV-1 infection. Fourth-generation HIV-1 testing, now available worldwide,2 ,3 will allow the diagnosis of infection in many patients and may lead to new treatments and opportunities for prevention.

Concurrent sexual partnerships and primary HIV infection: a critical interaction

The combination of long-term concurrent sexual partnerships and high infectiousness early in HIV infection has been suggested as a key driver of the extensive spread of HIV in general populations in sub-Saharan Africa, but this has never been scientifically investigated. We use a mathematical model to simulate HIV spreading on sexual networks with different amounts of concurrency. The models show that if HIV infectiousness is constant over the duration of infection, the amount of concurrency has much less influence on HIV spread compared to when infectiousness varies over three stages of infection with high infectiousness in the first months. The proportion of transmissions during primary infection is sensitive to the amount of concurrency and, in this model, is estimated to be between 16 and 28% in spreading epidemics with increasing concurrency. The sensitivity of epidemic spread to the amount of concurrency is greater than predicted by models that do not include primary HIV infection.

A decade of modelling research yields considerable evidence for the importance of concurrency: a response to Sawers and Stillwaggon

In their recent article, Sawers and Stillwaggon critique the "concurrency hypothesis" on a number of grounds. In this commentary, I focus on one thread of their argument, pertaining to the evidence derived from modelling work. Their analysis focused on the foundational papers of Morris and Kretzschmar; here, I explore the research that has been conducted since then, which Sawers and Stillwaggon leave out of their review. I explain the methodological limitations that kept progress on the topic slow at first, and the various forms of methodological development that were pursued to overcome these. I then highlight recent modelling work that addresses the various limitations Sawers and Stillwaggon outline in their article. Collectively, this line of research provides considerable support for the modelling aspects of the concurrency hypothesis, and renders their critique of the literature incomplete and obsolete. It also makes clear that their call for "an end (or at least a moratorium) to research on sexual behaviour in Africa" that pertains to concurrency is unjustified.

Concurrent partnerships and HIV: an inconvenient truth

The strength of the evidence linking concurrency to HIV epidemic severity in southern and eastern Africa led the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the Southern African Development Community in 2006 to conclude that high rates of concurrent sexual partnerships, combined with low rates of male circumcision and infrequent condom use, are major drivers of the AIDS epidemic in southern Africa. In a recent article in the Journal of the International AIDS Society, Larry Sawers and Eileen Stillwaggon attempt to challenge the evidence for the importance of concurrency and call for an end to research on the topic. However, their "systematic review of the evidence" is not an accurate summary of the research on concurrent partnerships and HIV, and it contains factual errors concerning the measurement and mathematical modelling of concurrency.Practical prevention-oriented research on concurrency is only just beginning. Most interventions to raise awareness about the risks of concurrency are less than two years old; few evaluations and no randomized-controlled trials of these programmes have been conducted. Determining whether these interventions can help people better assess their own risks and take steps to reduce them remains an important task for research. This kind of research is indeed the only way to obtain conclusive evidence on the role of concurrency, the programmes needed for effective prevention, the willingness of people to change behaviour, and the obstacles to change.

Interaction of mathematical modeling and social and behavioral HIV/AIDS research

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV is transmitted within complex biobehavioral systems. Mathematical modeling can provide insight to complex population-level outcomes of various behaviors measured at an individual level.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV models in the social and behavioral sciences can be categorized in a number of ways; here, we consider two classes of applications common in the field generally, and in the past year in particular: those models that explore significant behavioral determinants of HIV disparities within and between populations; and those models that seek to evaluate the potential impact of specific social and behavioral interventions.

SUMMARY

We discuss two overarching issues we see in the field: the need to further systematize effectiveness models of behavioral interventions, and the need for increasing investigation of the use of behavioral data in epidemic models. We believe that a recent initiative by the National Institutes of Health will qualitatively change the relationships between epidemic modeling and sociobehavioral prevention research in the coming years.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics

The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

HIV-1 transmission biology: selection and characteristics of infecting viruses

Individuals with recent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition are likely to be a major source for other new infections because they have a high level of plasma virus, and the circulating virions possess unique properties that are highly suited for transmission. The acute infection period, however, presents a unique "window of opportunity," because there are a limited number of genetic variants. Studies aim to elucidate the nature of the transmitted viruses and understand the mechanisms that inhibit the majority of variants present in the chronically infected partner from establishing a productive infection in the naive host. Greater understanding of these issues may open promising new ways to effectively block HIV-1 transmission.

Postexposure prophylaxis, preexposure prophylaxis or universal test and treat: the strategic use of antiretroviral drugs to prevent HIV acquisition and transmission

This review considers the use of antiretroviral drugs specifically to prevent HIV transmission. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can be implemented for the protection of uninfected individuals both before (preexposure prophylaxis) and after (postexposure prophylaxis) exposure to HIV infection. Preexposure prophylaxis may be used coitally dependently when individuals are intermittently exposed or by continuous daily dosing for those constantly exposed; postexposure prophylaxis is used in 28-day courses. Alternatively, ART can be used strategically to reduce the viral load and consequent infectiousness of an HIV-infected individual, thereby limiting the risk of onward viral transmission. A policy of universal HIV testing to enhance the identification of all HIV-positive individuals followed by immediate treatment of all HIV-positive individuals, irrespective of their CD4 cell counts (universal test and treat), has been postulated as a potential tool capable of reducing HIV incidence at a population level. This concept represents a paradigm shift in the use of ART, targeting infectious individuals for prevention rather than protecting uninfected exposed populations. This strategy could have the advantage of preventing transmission and reducing HIV incidence at a population level, as well as delivering universal access to therapy for all people living with HIV and AIDS, potentially eliminating mother-to-child HIV transmission and limiting concomitant diseases such as tuberculosis. This review critically examines the scientific basis of ART for HIV prevention, summarizing the risks and opportunities of the potential expansion of ART for prevention. Specifically, we consider the evidences for and against targeting HIV-uninfected individuals compared with enhanced HIV testing and treatment of HIV-infected individuals in terms of impact on viral transmission.

Antiretroviral therapy as HIV prevention: status and prospects

As antiretroviral treatment of HIV infection has become increasingly accessible, attention has focused on whether these drugs can used for prevention because of increased tolerability of newer medications, decreased cost, and the limitations of other approaches. We review the status of antiretroviral HIV prevention, including chemoprophylaxis, as well as the effects of treatment of infected individuals on prevention. It is possible that the life-saving agents that have transformed the natural history of AIDS can be a critical component of HIV prevention efforts, but their ultimate role in affecting HIV transmission dynamics remains to be defined.

HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA.

METHODS

We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA.

RESULTS

We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present.

CONCLUSIONS

HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited.

Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection

BACKGROUND

Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population.

METHODS

We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting.

RESULTS

The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed.

CONCLUSION

The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men to whom one transmits later in infection. Reducing transmissions from primary HIV should be a primary focus of HIV control efforts.

HIV transmission by stage of infection and pattern of sexual partnerships

BACKGROUND

Most model analyses examining the role of primary HIV infection in the HIV epidemic ignore the fact that HIV is often transmitted through long-term, concurrent sexual partnerships. We sought to understand how duration and concurrency of sexual partnerships affect the role of transmissions during primary HIV infection.

METHODS

We constructed a stochastic individual-based model of HIV transmission in a homogeneous population where partnerships form and dissolve. Using observed contagiousness by stage of HIV infection, the fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection at equilibrium was examined across varying partnership durations and concurrencies.

RESULTS

The fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection has a U-shaped relationship with partnership duration. The fraction drops with increasing partnership duration for partnerships with shorter average duration but rises for partnerships with longer average duration. Partnership concurrency modifies this relationship. The fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection increases with increasing partnership concurrency for partnerships with shorter average duration, but decreases for partnerships with longer average duration.

CONCLUSIONS

Partnership patterns strongly influence the transmission of HIV and do so differentially by stage of infection. Dynamic partnerships need to be taken into account to make a robust inference on the role of different stages of HIV infection.

Antiretroviral treatment of primary HIV infection to reduce onward transmission

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review will discuss the role of antiretroviral therapy to treat primary HIV infection (PHI) as a strategy to prevent onward viral transmission.

RECENT FINDINGS

Novel technology has greatly enhanced the appreciation of the characteristics of recently transmitted HIV-1 variants. Recent primate data demonstrate marked enhanced infectiousness of viral variants isolated from acutely infected macaques compared with viruses isolated from animals in the chronic phase of disease. These data are supported by phylogenetic analyses of recently transmitted cases in humans, implying that individuals with PHI may contribute disproportionately to onward transmission at a population level.

SUMMARY

In the absence of randomized clinical trial data supporting individual benefit of antiretroviral therapy, targeting and treating individuals with PHI as a public health intervention strategy represent a paradigm shift from current treatment strategies based around proven individual benefit alone. However, there is increasing evidence that PHI contributes disproportionately to viral transmission at a population level and failure to incorporate the potential role PHI plays, particularly in focused epidemics, maybe a naïve omission of many of the current mathematical models evaluating the impact of universal test and treat on population-level HIV incidence.

Role of acute and early HIV infection in the sexual transmission of HIV

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Acute HIV infection (AHI), the earliest period after HIV acquisition, is only a few weeks in duration. In this brief period, the concentration of HIV in blood and genital secretions is extremely high, increasing the probability of HIV transmission. Although a substantial role of AHI in the sexual transmission of HIV is biologically plausible, the significance of AHI in the epidemiological spread of HIV remains uncertain.

RECENT FINDINGS

AHI is diagnosed by detecting viral RNA or antigen in the blood of persons who are HIV seronegative. Depending on the setting, persons with AHI represent between 1 and 10% of persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection. The high concentration of virus during AHI leads to increased infectiousness, possibly as much as 26 times greater than during chronic infection. In mathematical models, the estimated proportion of transmission attributed to AHI has varied considerably, depending on model structure, model parameters, and the population. Key determinants include the stage of the HIV epidemic and the sexual risk profile of the population.

SUMMARY

Despite its brief duration, AHI plays a disproportionate role in the sexual transmission of HIV infection. Detection of persons with AHI may provide an important opportunity for transmission prevention.

Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact.

RECENT FINDINGS

We use mathematical modelling of 'universal test and treat' as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission.

SUMMARY

Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, whereas complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and, thus, be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis in which assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.

Correcting the actual reproduction number: a simple method to estimate R(0) from early epidemic growth data

The basic reproduction number, R₀, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R₀ without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R₀ values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R₀ using a spreadsheet.

Sexually transmitted infections among HIV-1-discordant couples

Introduction

More new HIV-1 infections occur within stable HIV-1-discordant couples than in any other group in Africa, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) may increase transmission risk among discordant couples, accounting for a large proportion of new HIV-1 infections. Understanding correlates of STIs among discordant couples will aid in optimizing interventions to prevent HIV-1 transmission in these couples.

Methods

HIV-1-discordant couples in which HIV-1-infected partners were HSV-2-seropositive were tested for syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis, and HIV-1-uninfected partners were tested for HSV-2. We assessed sociodemographic, behavioral, and biological correlates of a current STI.

Results

Of 416 couples enrolled, 16% were affected by a treatable STI, and among these both partners were infected in 17% of couples. A treatable STI was found in 46 (11%) females and 30 (7%) males. The most prevalent infections were trichomoniasis (5.9%) and syphilis (2.6%). Participants were 5.9-fold more likely to have an STI if their partner had an STI (P<0.01), and STIs were more common among those reporting any unprotected sex (OR = 2.43; P<0.01) and those with low education (OR = 3.00; P<0.01). Among HIV-1-uninfected participants with an HSV-2-seropositive partner, females were significantly more likely to be HSV-2-seropositive than males (78% versus 50%, P<0.01).

Conclusions

Treatable STIs were common among HIV-1-discordant couples and the majority of couples affected by an STI were discordant for the STI, with relatively high HSV-2 discordance. Awareness of STI correlates and treatment of both partners may reduce HIV-1 transmission.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00194519

Sexual transmission of HIV-1

HIV-1 transmission occurs in a limited number of ways all of which are preventable. Overall, the risk of HIV-1 transmission following a single sexual exposure is low especially in comparison with other sexually transmitted infections (STIs); with estimates of the average probability of male to female HIV-1 transmission only 0.0005-0.0026 per coital act. The risk of acquiring HIV-1 from a single contact varies enormously and is dependant upon the infectiousness of the HIV-1 positive individual and the susceptibility to HIV-1 of their sexual partner. An understanding of the determinants of HIV-1 transmission is important not only to assess the infection risk to an individual when exposed to the virus (e.g. to determine the provision of post exposure prophylaxis), but also to make accurate predictions on the potential spread of HIV-1 infection in a population and to direct appropriate targeted prevention strategies. In this review article we summarise the current literature on the major worldwide source of HIV-1 acquisition, sexual transmission. This article forms part of a special issue of Antiviral Research marking the 25th anniversary of antiretroviral drug discovery and development, Vol 85, issue 1, 2010.

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

BACKGROUND

Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination.

METHODS

We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual.

FINDINGS

The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US$1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease.

INTERPRETATION

Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.

Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence has recently declined in several African countries, and prior to this the risk of HIV acquisition per unprotected sex contact also declined in Kenyan sex workers. We hypothesized that heterogeneity in HIV host susceptibility might underpin both of these observations.

METHODS

A compartmental mathematical model was used to explore the potential impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection on epidemic behavior, in the absence of other causative mechanisms.

RESULTS

Studies indicated that a substantial heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection may lead to an epidemic that peaks and then declines due to a depletion of the most susceptible individuals, even without changes in sexual behavior. This effect was most notable in high-risk groups such as female sex workers and was consistent with empirical data.

DISCUSSION

Declines in HIV prevalence may have other causes in addition to behavior change, including heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility. There is a need to further study this heterogeneity and its correlates, particularly as it confounds the ability to attribute HIV epidemic shifts to specific interventions, including behavior change.