Validating, deconstructing and refining Baveno criteria for ruling out high-risk varices in patients with compensated cirrhosis

Contrast-Enhanced CT May Identify High-Risk Esophageal Varices in Patients With Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE. The Baveno VI consensus established guidelines to reduce unnecessary screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) for esophageal varices (EVs). We assessed whether EVs that would require intervention at EGD can be identified on CT and evaluated if recommending EGD on the basis of CT findings would result in unnecessary EGD according to the Baveno VI consensus guidelines. MATERIALS AND METHODS. This single-institution retrospective study identified 97 contrast-enhanced CT examinations within 3 months of EGD in 93 patients with cirrhosis from 2008 to 2018. Demographic information, EGD findings, interventions, and laboratory data were reviewed. CT scans were reviewed for EVs and compared with EGD findings. Var-ices that were 4 mm or larger were considered large, and those requiring intervention were considered high risk. RESULTS. The presence of large EVs on CT was 80% sensitive and 87% specific for high-risk varices at EGD. Large EVs on CT were associated with bleeding as the indication for EGD (p = 0.03) and the presence of high-risk varices at EGD (p < 0.001). The positive predictive value that a large EV on CT corresponded to a high-risk EV at EGD was 90.4% (95% CI, 0.78-0.96). Patients with large EVs on CT were 9.4 times more likely to have a grade III or grade IV EV at EGD. CONCLUSION. Large EVs on CT correlated with high-risk varices at EGD and may be a useful indicator that EGD should be considered for confirmatory diagnosis and treatment. Recommending EGD for patients with EVs of 4 mm or larger did not result in EGD that would be deemed unnecessary according to the Baveno VI consensus guidelines.

Application of Baveno Criteria and Modified Baveno Criteria with Shear-wave Elastography in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

We aimed to validate Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria using two dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE) in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients with alcohol as the main etiology.

METHODS

Clinical data from 305 patients with cACLD who underwent a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with 2D-SWE and endoscopy were consecutively collected.

RESULTS

Among 305 patients, high-risk varix (HRV) was identified in 21.3% (n = 65). The main etiology was alcoholic liver disease (51.8%), followed by hepatitis B virus (29.8%) and hepatitis C virus (9.1%). Baveno VI criteria spared endoscopy in 118 of the 305 (38.7%) patients, and 7 (5.9%) were missed with HRV. Expanded Baveno VI criteria spared more endoscopies (60.0%), but missed more HRV (9.8%) compared with Baveno VI criteria. The other classification described as the modified Baveno VI criteria were LSM < 25 kPa and PLT ≥ 150 × 10³/mm³. In total, 131 of the 305 (43.0%) patients were within the modified Baveno VI criteria, of whom seven (5.3%) had missed HRV. After adding spleen diameter < 12 cm to the modified Baveno VI criteria, the number of spared endoscopies increased by 106/305 (34.8%), with three (2.8%) presenting with HRV, indicating a risk of missing HRV.

CONCLUSION

Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria with 2D-SWE were insufficient with an HRV miss rate of over 5%. The modified Baveno VI criteria with spleen diameters < 12 cm with 2D-SWE spared more endoscopies with a minimal risk of missing HRV in cACLD patients with alcohol as the main etiology.

Evaluation and Management of Esophageal and Gastric Varices in Patients with Cirrhosis

Variceal bleeding is a complication of cirrhosis that defines decompensation. Important advances in the management of gastroesophageal varices have led to a significant decrease in the morbidity and mortality. Achieving these results in clinical practice is contingent on clinicians applying the best practice strategies and appropriate referral to a tertiary center. Several quality metrics were developed by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. This article aims to update outpatient and inpatient strategies to include the latest recommendations on variceal screening and surveillance, primary and secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding, and therapy for patients with acute variceal bleeding.

Assessing Baveno VI criteria with liver stiffness measured using a new point-shear wave elastography technique (BAVElastPQ study)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To date, no study has explored the potential role of ElastPQ, a novel point-SWE technique, in the assessment of clinically significant portal hypertension. The aim of our study was to determine a liver stiffness (LS) cut-off value measured by ElastPQ and laboratory parameters that could help to identify those patients who can safely avoid screening endoscopy.

METHODS

Data were collected on 1422 patients who underwent ElastPQ measurement from January 2013 to January 2016 in our Department. Inclusion criteria were a LS value of ≥7 kPa, an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy within 12 months and a diagnosis of compensated chronic liver disease. Exclusion criteria were history of decompensated liver disease, evidence of porto-spleno-mesenteric vein thrombosis and non-cirrhotic portal hypertension. Varices were graded as low-risk varices (grade <2) or varices needing treatment (VNT, grade ≥2).

RESULTS

The study included 195 patients (120 [61%] HCV, 171 [88%] Child-Pugh A). Varices were present in 35% cases, with 10% prevalence of VNT. According to ROC curve analysis, LS measurement and platelet count were evaluated as predictors of VNT. Overall, 75/195 (38%) met the 'BAVElastPQ' criteria (that is, LS < 12 kPa and platelet count >150 000/μL). Within this group, 11/75 (15%) had any grade of varices and only 1/75 (1%) had VNT. The BAVElastPQ criteria gave sensitivity of 0.95, specificity of 0.42, positive predictive value of 0.15 and negative predictive value of 0.99.

CONCLUSIONS

The BAVElastPQ criteria correctly identified 99% of patients without VNT. By applying such criteria, we could have potentially avoided 38% of surveillance endoscopies in our cohort.

Validation of the Combined Model Based on Platelet Count and Albumin to Rule out High-Risk Varices in Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Baveno VI criteria based on platelet count and liver stiffness, measured by transient elastography (TE), have been proposed to rule out high-risk varices (HRV) defined as medium or large-sized varices or the presence of high-risk stigmata (cherry red spots and red wale marks). However, TE is not available in all hospitals. Recently, the Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia hepatitis C virus (RESIST-HCV) criteria recommended that cirrhotic patients with a platelet count > 120000/μL and serum albumin > 36 g/L could avoid esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening for HRV.

AIM

We aimed to validate the performance of the RESIST-HCV criteria in two cohorts predominantly characterized with hepatitis B infection.

METHODS

Patients with compensated cirrhosis who had blood tests within three months of performing EGD and TE were enrolled retrospectively from two centers. RESIST-HCV criteria were applied to identify patients who did not require EGD screening.

RESULTS

This study included 188 patients from the Xingtai cohort (28 (14.9%) with HRV) and 104 patients from the Beijing cohort (19 (18.3%) with HRV). Of the patients who met the RESIST-HCV criteria (83 in the Xingtai cohort and 26 in the Beijing cohort), 0 and 1 had HRV, respectively, accounting for 44.1% (Xingtai cohort) and 25% (Beijing cohort) of endoscopies that were unnecessary. In the combined cohort, 109 (37.3%) patients met the RESIST-HCV criteria, only 1 (0.9%) HRV was missed, and the negative predictive value was 99.1%. Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI criteria spared 15.6% and 23.3% of EGDs, respectively, while missing 0% and 4.8% of HRV, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In our population, the combined criteria based on platelet count and serum albumin performed well, saving 30-40% of EGDs and correctly identifying 99.1% of patients who could safely avoid screening endoscopies for high-risk varices in compensated cirrhotic patients.

Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI criteria successfully predicts the absence of high-risk gastro-oesophageal varices in a Chilean cohort

BACKGROUND

Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria have been recommended to circumvent the need for endoscopy screening in patients with a very low probability of varices needing treatment (VNT).

AIM

To validate these criteria in a Latin American population.

METHODS

The ability of Baveno VI criteria (liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 103/μL) and expanded Baveno VI criteria (LSM < 25kPa and platelet count >110 × 103/μL) to exclude the presence of VNT was tested in a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with Child-Pugh A liver cirrhosis and with no previous variceal haemorrhage who attended the liver clinics of three major hospitals in Chile.

RESULTS

Three hundred patients were included. The median (IQR) age was 61 [18-86] years, median MELD was 8.0 (6-17), median LSM was 17.2 (10.2-77) kPa and median platelet count was 137 (23-464) × 103 /μL. The main aetiology was non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (67.3%). VNT were present in 18% of patients. The Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 98.1% and a specificity of 38.2%, potentially sparing 31.3% of upper endoscopies with a very low risk of missing VNT (1.1%). The expanded Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 90.7% and a specificity of 61%, potentially sparing 51.3% of upper endoscopies with a risk of missing VNT of 3.6%. Both criteria were independently associated with the absence of VNT.

CONCLUSION

We validated the Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria in Chilean population, potentially sparing 31.3% and 51.3% of endoscopies, respectively, with a very low risk of missing VNT. Fondecyt 1191183.

Validating and expanding the Baveno VI criteria for esophageal varices in patients with advanced liver disease: a multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

According to the Baveno VI workshop, patients with compensated advanced liver disease, platelet count (PLT) >150,000/μL and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa can avoid screening endoscopy for high-risk varices (HRVs). The purpose of this study was to validate these criteria in a multicenter Greek cohort and consider other approaches that may further decrease the number of endoscopies.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled patients with advanced liver disease (defined as LSM >12 kPa) and evaluated them according to the Baveno VI criteria. Exclusion criteria were splanchnic vein thrombosis, use of β-blockers, and esophageal varices. Screening endoscopy was conducted within 6 months of liver stiffness and laboratory measurements.

RESULTS

One-hundred seven consecutive patients were enrolled in the study to undergo LSM and screening endoscopy. Of these, 13 met the Baveno VI criteria (12.1%); none of the latter had HRVs. Additional parameters were examined, among which the quotient PLT/log10LSM exhibited the largest area under the curve; concerning the latter, values ≤122,000 μL-1 x kPa-1 predicted high-risk varices with 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV), preventing 20.6% of patients from unneeded screening endoscopy (P=0.003). Moreover, values ≤92,000 μL-1 x kPa-1 exhibited 86% sensitivity and 94% NPV, preventing 44.9% of patients from unneeded screening endoscopy (P=0.001), while maintaining a tolerable percentage of overlooked patients with HRVs (6.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

The Baveno VI criteria were successfully validated in our study. The quotient PLT/log10LSM can be used to further decrease the number of screening endoscopies in patients with advanced liver disease.

Remaining challenges for the noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis

Although endoscopy is the recommended method for detecting esophageal varices, noninvasive methods for diagnosing esophageal varices are needed to avoid unnecessary invasive endoscopic examinations. In recent years, many studies have been performed to predict the presence of high-risk varices in noninvasive ways. The most widely used tools for noninvasive screening for esophageal varices are the Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria. Even these accepted criteria are not 100% accurate and have some limitations. Here, we summarize the current literature on the noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients and highlight the remaining issues.

A novel spleen-dedicated stiffness measurement by FibroScan® improves the screening of high-risk oesophageal varices

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to diagnose oesophageal varices (EV), including the recent Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices (HRV). Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) with the standard FibroScan® (SSM@50Hz) has been evaluated. However, the EV grading could be underestimated because of a ceiling threshold (75 kPa) of the SSM@50Hz. The aims were to evaluate SSM by a novel spleen-dedicated FibroScan® (SSM@100Hz) for EV diagnosis compared with SSM@50Hz, other validated NITs and Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

This prospective multicentre study consecutively enrolled patients with chronic liver disease; blood data, endoscopy, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz were collected.

RESULTS

Two hundred and sixty patients met inclusion criteria. SSM@100Hz success rate was significantly higher than that of SSM@50Hz (92.5% vs 76.0%, P < .001). SSM@100Hz accuracy for the presence of EV (AUC = 0.728) and HRV (AUC = 0.756) was higher than in other NITs. SSM@100Hz AUC for large EV (0.782) was higher than SSM@50Hz (0.720, P = .027). AUC for HRV with SSM@100Hz (0.780) was higher than with LSM (0.615, P < .001). The spared endoscopy rate of Baveno VI criteria (8.1%) was significantly increased by the combination to SSM@50Hz (26.5%) or SSM@100Hz (38.9%, P < .001 vs others). The missed HRV rate was, respectively, 0% and 4.7% for combinations.

CONCLUSIONS

SSM@100Hz is a new performant non-invasive marker for EV and HRV providing a higher accuracy than SSM@50Hz and other NITs. The combination of Baveno VI criteria and SSM@100Hz significantly increased the spared endoscopy rate compared to Baveno VI criteria alone or combined with SSM@50Hz. Clinical trial number: NCT02180113.

Portal Hypertension: Pathogenesis and Diagnosis

Portal hypertension (PH) is an increase in the pressure gradient between portal vein and inferior vena cava. Increased resistance occurs at different levels within the portal venous system, followed by increased portal venous inflow. PH is the main driver of cirrhosis decompensation. Varices on endoscopy or portosystemic collaterals on imaging indicate PH. Although its cause is determined mostly via noninvasive tests, the gold standard to measure portal pressure in cirrhosis and determine its severity is hepatic vein catheterization with determination of the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Measuring portal pressure is essential in proof-of-concept studies of portal pressure-lowering drugs.

Contrast-Enhanced CT May Be a Diagnostic Alternative for Gastroesophageal Varices in Cirrhosis with and without Previous Endoscopic Variceal Therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver fibrosis blood tests, platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (PSR), and contrast-enhanced CT are diagnostic alternatives for gastroesophageal varices, but they have heterogeneous diagnostic performance among different study populations. Our study is aimed at evaluating their diagnostic accuracy for esophageal varices (EVs) and gastric varices (GVs) in cirrhotic patients with and without previous endoscopic variceal therapy.

METHODS

Patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent blood tests and contrast-enhanced CT scans as well as endoscopic surveillance should be potentially eligible. EVs needing treatment (EVNTs) and GVs needing treatment (GVNTs) were recorded according to the endoscopic results. Area under the curves (AUCs) were calculated.

RESULTS

Overall, 279 patients were included. In 175 patients without previous endoscopic variceal therapy, including primary prophylaxis population (n = 70), acute bleeding population (n = 38), and previous bleeding population (n = 67), the diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced CT for EVNTs was higher (AUCs = 0.816-0.876) as compared to blood tests and PSR; by comparison, the diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced CT for GVNTs was statistically significant among primary prophylaxis population (AUC = 0.731, P = 0.0316), but not acute or previous bleeding population. In 104 patients with previous endoscopic variceal therapy (i.e., secondary prophylaxis population), contrast-enhanced CT was the only statistically significant alternative for diagnosing EVNTs and GVNTs but with modest accuracy (AUCs = 0.673 and 0.661, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Contrast-enhanced CT might be a diagnostic alternative for EVNTs in cirrhotic patients, but its diagnostic performance was slightly weakened in secondary prophylaxis population. Additionally, contrast-enhanced CT may be considered for diagnosis of GVNTs in primary prophylaxis population without previous endoscopic variceal therapy and secondary prophylaxis population.

Liver stiffness and serum markers for excluding high-risk varices in patients who do not meet Baveno VI criteria

BACKGROUND

The Baveno VI criteria for predicting esophageal varices, i.e., liver stiffness measurement (LSM) < 20 kPa and platelet (PLT) count > 150 × 10⁹/L, identify patients who can safely avoid gastroscopy screening. However, they require further refinement.

AIM

To evaluate the utility of LSM and serum markers of liver fibrosis in ruling out high-risk varices (HRV) in patients who do not meet Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

Data from 132 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated liver cirrhosis who did not meet the Baveno VI criteria were retrospectively reviewed. MedCalc 15.8 was used to calculate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the accuracy of LSM, PLT count, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-PLT ratio index, Fibrosis-4, and the Lok index in predicting HRV were evaluated according to the area under each ROC curve (AUROC). The utility of LSM, PLT, and serum markers of liver fibrosis stratified by alanine transaminase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBil) levels was evaluated for ruling out HRV.

RESULTS

In all patients who did not meet the Baveno VI criteria, the independent risk factors for HRV were LSM and ALT. Only the AUROC of Lok index was above 0.7 for predicting HRV, and at a cutoff value of 0.4531 it could further spare 24.2% of gastroscopies without missing HRVs. The prevalence of HRV was significantly lower in patients with ALT or TBil ≥ 2 upper limit of normal (ULN) (14.3%) than in patients with both ALT and TBil < 2 ULN (34.1%) (P = 0.018). In the 41 patients with ALT and TBil < 2 ULN, LSM had an AUROC for predicting HRV of 0.821. LSM < 20.6 kPa spared 39.0% of gastroscopies without missing HRVs. In the 91 patients with ALT or TBiL ≥ 2 ULN, the Lok index and PLT had AUROCs of 0.814 and 0.741, respectively. Lok index ≤ 0.5596 or PLT > 100 × 10⁹/L further spared 39.6% and 43.9% of gastroscopies, respectively, without missing HRVs.

CONCLUSION

In HBV-related compensated cirrhosis patients who do not meet Baveno VI criteria, the LSM, PLT, or Lok index cutoff stratified by ALT and TBil accurately identifies more patients without HRV.

Role of Spleen Stiffness Measurement by 2D-Shear Wave Elastography in Ruling Out the Presence of High-Risk Varices in Cirrhotic Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To evaluate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) can rule out the presence of high-risk varices in patients with cirrhosis, avoiding an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE).

METHODS

We enrolled 71 cirrhotic patients irrespective of liver disease's etiology. 2D shear wave elastography (SWE) of spleen and UGE was performed. High-risk varices (HRV) were defined as esophageal varices ≥ 5 mm and/or red spots and any gastric varices.

RESULTS

Esophageal varices were documented in 37 (52.1%) and HRV in 25 (35.2%) patients. SSM was not technically feasible in 7/71 patients (9.8%). From the remaining 64 patients, when those with cholestatic liver disease were excluded (n = 17), SSM < 35.8 kPa was found to exclude well the existence of HRV offering an AUROC of 0.854 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 88.9%, negative predictive value (NPV) 91.3%, specificity 72.4%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 66.7%. Only 2/47 patients (4.3%) were misclassified, and 23 (48.9%) could avoid endoscopy. In the total cohort of 64 patients, SSM < 33.7 kPa was found to exclude well the presence of HRV offering AUROC 0.792 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 60%, NPV 92.3%, and PPV 57.9%. The misclassification rate was 3.1% (2/64), while 26/64 (40.6%) could avoid endoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

2D-SWE of spleen is a reliable method for ruling out the presence of HRV in cirrhotic patients. If larger studies confirm our results, a large number of endoscopies could be avoided.

Screening for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients - Non-invasive methods

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic complication of cirrhosis. Primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding is indicated for patients with high-risk varices. In order for these patients to be identified, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices has been traditionally recommended at the time of the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Considering that many patients do not have esophageal varices in the early stages of cirrhosis and, therefore, are submitted to endoscopy unnecessarily, non-invasive methods for variceal screening have been studied. Among these non-invasive methods, the most extensively studied probably are platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, liver stiffness, spleen stiffness and an association between liver stiffness and platelet count, referred to as the Baveno VI criteria. The Baveno VI criteria has recently been recommended by different medical associations for variceal screening. This is a critical review on the non-invasive methods for variceal screening, in which the performances of the different methods are presented and the limitations of the existing evidence is discussed. Despite reasonable performances of some of these methods, especially platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the association between liver stiffness and platelet count, we understand that the available evidence still has relevant limitations and that physicians should decide on screening cirrhotic patients for esophageal varices with endoscopy or non-invasive methods on a case-by-case basis.

Baveno Criteria Safely Identify Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Who Can Avoid Variceal Screening Endoscopy: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Meta-Analysis

Background: The Baveno VI Consensus Workshop defined criteria (liver stiffness measured by transient elastography <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 109 cells/L) to identify those patients with compensated advanced chronic liver diseases (cACLD) who are unlikely to have varices needing treatment (VNTs) and can safely avoid variceal screening endoscopy. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the safety and efficacy of these criteria in suspected cACLD with liver stiffness >10 kPa and in compensated chronic liver diseases (cCLD) irrespective of liver stiffness. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in nine databases for studies discussed cACLD or cCLD and tested Baveno criteria against variceal screening endoscopy. The main safety and efficacy endpoints were missed VNT rate and spared endoscopy rate (SER), respectively; calculated with the random effect model. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated with the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model. For all outcome measures, 95% confidence intervals were computed. Heterogeneity was tested with I 2-statistics. Results: The search yielded 13 studies including 4,464 patients which reported on suspected cACLD. Pooled missed VNT rate was 0.3% (0.1-0.6%; I 2 = 45.5%), pooled SER was 32.8% (24.8-41.4%; I 2 = 97.0%). Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of Baveno criteria were 97% (95-98%), 41% (27-57%), and 96% (94-97%), respectively. In the subgroups of cACLD from hepatitis C and B viruses, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis, or alcohol, missed VNT rates were 0.0% (0.0-0.3%), 1.2% (0.4-2.2%), 0.0% (0.0-1.3%), or 0.0% (0.0-0.4%), while SERs were 24.2% (20.5-28.1%), 24.9% (21.7-28.4%), 38.6% (10.9-70.8%), or 27.0% (16.9-38.4%), respectively. If we expanded the study population to cCLD, 27 studies included 7,534 patients. Missed VNT rate was 0.2% (0.1-0.5%; I 2 = 39.8%) with a SER of 30.5% (25.2-36.2%; I 2 = 96.1%) while Se, Sp, and AUC were 97% (93-99%), 35% (27-44%), and 80% (77-84%), respectively. Conclusions: The application of Baveno criteria significantly reduces the number of unnecessary variceal screening endoscopies while being safe: cACLD patients with liver stiffness <20 kPa and platelet count > 150 × 109 cells/L carry a very low chance (i.e., 0.3%) of having VNTs. The criteria preserve low missed VNT rate with lower diagnostic performance among cCLD patients.

Evaluation of three "beyond Baveno VI" criteria to safely spare endoscopies in compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150,000/mm3 exclude varices needing treatment (VNT) in viral compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), saving-up to 20-25% endoscopies (Baveno VI criteria). Refinements of such criteria to further reduce endoscopies and an approach without LSM (Platelet 150/MELD 6) were later proposed.

AIMS

To assess LSM 25/platelet 125, LSM 25/platelet 110 (Expanded-Baveno VI) and Platelet 150/MELD 6 accuracy versus Baveno VI criteria, and the impact of platelet count variability on criteria accuracy in all-etiologies cACLD.

METHODS

cACLD patients undergoing screening endoscopy with laboratory data within 6 months and LSM within one year.

RESULTS

Of 442 patients, 31% had varices (7% with VNT). Baveno VI criteria had 100% sensitivity (Se) and negative predictive value (NPV) and spared 19.5% endoscopies. "LSM 25/platelet 125" and "Expanded-Baveno VI" criteria maintained such accuracy, sparing 15% and 24% more endoscopies, respectively (p < 0.001). Platelet 150/MELD 6 was less accurate, misclassifying 10% VNT. Platelet count variability exceeded 8% and one VNT patient was misclassified with both "Expanded-Baveno VI" and "LSM 25/platelet 125" criteria considering the previous platelet count.

CONCLUSIONS

Both "Expanded-Baveno VI" and "LSM 25/platelet 125" criteria are accurate in cACLD, but the former are more advantageous. Platelet 150/MELD 6 proved inadequate.

Performance of Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI Criteria for Excluding High-Risk Varices in Patients With Chronic Liver Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to assess the accuracy of Baveno VI criteria for identification of high-risk varices (HRVs) and varices of any size in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of publications through December 2018 for studies that assessed the accuracy of Baveno VI criteria for screening for varices in patients with cACLD. We used hierarchical models to synthesize evidence. We also conducted a post hoc analysis to assess the accuracy of Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria. We appraised the confidence in estimates using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

We identified 30 studies (8469 participants). Pooled values of Baveno VI criteria for HRVs (26 studies) were a sensitivity of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98) and a specificity of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.26-0.39). Pooled sensitivity of Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria for HRVs (12 studies) was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.93) and specificity was 0.51 (95% CI, 0.45-0.57). In 1000 patients with cACLD, with a prevalence of HRVs of 20%, Baveno VI criteria would prevent endoscopy in 262 patients, but 6 patients with HRVs would be missed. Instead, use of the Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria would result in 428 patients avoiding endoscopy, but 20 patients with HRVs would be missed. The credibility of our findings is moderate or low, mainly owing to the retrospective design of most studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Baveno VI criteria have high diagnostic accuracy as a triage test for screening for HRVs in patients with cACLD. Expanded Baveno VI criteria could reduce the proportion of unnecessary endoscopies further, nevertheless with a higher rate of missed HRVs.

Prediction of the varices needing treatment with non-invasive tests in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

The Baveno VI guidelines proposed criteria including liver stiffness (LS) and platelet count to avoid screening endoscopy in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). This study was performed to validate the Baveno IV criteria and to compare its diagnostic accuracy with other non-invasive models.

METHODS

Patients with cACLD who underwent laboratory tests, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and abdominal ultrasound within 6 months of transient elastography were included.

RESULTS

A total of 1218 patients with cACLD were included. VNT occurred in 249 patients (20.4%). With the Baveno VI criteria, the VNT miss rate was 1.9% with a 25.7% saved endoscopy rate. Using two criteria of LS <20 kPa and platelet count >110 × 109  cells/L or LS <25 kPa and platelet count >120 × 109  cells/L, the saved endoscopy rate was 39.1% while maintaining the VNT miss rate <5%. The optimal LS and platelet count-based criteria for predicting VNT differed according to the underlying liver disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of LS-spleen diameter to platelet score (LSPS) was 0.780 (95% confidence interval: 0.774-0.820), which was significantly higher than other models. The optimal cut-off value of the LSPS for predicting VNT was 1.47.

CONCLUSION

Liver stiffness and platelet count-based criteria are useful for discriminating patients with very low risk of having VNT among patients with cACLD and are partly affected by the type of underlying liver disease. Conversely, the LSPS is a predictor of VNT in patients with cACLD regardless of the type of underlying liver disease.

Emerging non-invasive approaches for diagnosis and monitoring of portal hypertension

Clinically significant portal hypertension is associated with an increased risk of developing gastro-oesophageal varices and hepatic decompensation. Hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement and oesophagogastroduodenoscopy are the gold-standard methods for assessing clinically significant portal hypertension (hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mm Hg) and gastro-oesophageal varices, respectively. However, invasiveness, cost, and feasibility limit their widespread use, especially if repeated and serial evaluations are required to assess the efficacy of pharmacotherapy. Although new techniques for non-invasive portal pressure measurement have been pursued for many decades, only recently have new tools been assessed and validated for larger clinical application. This Review focuses on the recent advances in non-invasive approaches for the diagnosis and serial monitoring of portal hypertension and varices for clinical practice.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT.

RESULTS

A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

Non-Invasive Prediction of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND

Baveno-VI guidelines recommend that patients with compensated cirrhosis with liver stiffness by transient elastography (LSM-TE) <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/mm(3) do not need an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) to screen for varices, since the risk of having varices needing treatment (VNT) is <5%. It remains uncertain if this tool can be used in patients with cholestatic liver diseases (ChLDs): primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). These patients may have a pre-sinusoidal component of portal hypertension that could affect the performance of this rule. In this study we evaluated the performance of Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI (LSM-TE <25 kPa and platelets >110,000/mm(3)), and other criteria in predicting the absence of VNT.

METHODS

This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in four referral hospitals. We retrospectively analyzed data from 227 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to PBC (n = 147) and PSC (n = 80) that had paired EGD and LSM-TE. We calculated false negative rate (FNR) and number of saved endoscopies for each prediction rule.

RESULTS

Prevalence of VNT was 13%. Baveno-VI criteria had a 0% FNR in PBC and PSC, saving 39 and 30% of EGDs, respectively. In PBC the other LSM-TE-based criteria resulted in FNRs >5%. In PSC the expanded Baveno criteria had an adequate performance. In both conditions LSM-TE-independent criteria resulted in an acceptable FNR but saved less EGDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Baveno-VI criteria can be applied in patients with cACLD due to ChLDs, which would result in saving 30-40% of EGDs. Expanded criteria in PBC would lead to FNRs >5%.

Elastography-based screening for esophageal varices in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Elastography-based liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a non-invasive tool for estimating liver fibrosis but also provides an estimate for the severity of portal hypertension in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The presence of varices and especially of varices needing treatment (VNT) indicates distinct prognostic stages in patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD). The Baveno VI guidelines suggested a simple algorithm based on LSM < 20 kPa (by transient elastography, TE) and platelet count > 150 G/L for ruling-out VNT in patients with cACLD. These (and other) TE-based LSM cut-offs have been evaluated for VNT screening in different liver disease etiologies. Novel point shear-wave elastography (pSWE) and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) methodologies for LSM have also been evaluated for their ability to screen for “any” varices and for VNT. Finally, the measurement of spleen stiffness (SSM) by elastography (mainly by pSWE and 2D-SWE) may represent another valuable screening tool for varices. Here, we summarize the current literature on elastography-based prediction of “any” varices and VNT. Finally, we have summarized the published LSM and SSM cut-offs in clinically useful scale cards.

How to clarify the Baveno VI criteria for ruling out varices needing treatment by noninvasive tests

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Baveno VI criteria enabled the screening of varices needing treatment (VNT) without endoscopy but created confusion by not stating the method used to calculate the 5% missed VNT limit, resulting in different calculations across validation studies. We analysed those calculations to clarify their diagnostic meaning.

METHODS

(a) Literature review and recalculation of the missed VNT rates according to the three definitions encountered. (b) Contingency table comparison of these latter to determine their diagnostic meanings. (c) Real case analysis. 4/Simulation of variations in the three main statistical descriptors (VNT, missed VNT or spared endoscopies).

RESULTS

Missed VNT rates in the three definitions varied five- to 10-fold across 7 papers. The contingency table showed that the definitions based on VNT prevalence and spared endoscopy as reference corresponded, respectively, to sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV). The whole population-based definition corresponded to diagnostic accuracy (not pertinent in that setting). Real case analysis showed that concerning liver stiffness, the 95% sensitivity and NPV cut-offs for VNT were, respectively, 14.1 and 26.5 kPa. The VNT-based definition offered a more statistically powerful paired comparison between diagnostic tests, whereas the definition based on spared endoscopies was hampered by an unpaired comparison. Case simulation showed that the VNT-based definition was the most sensitive to descriptor variations.

CONCLUSION

The definitions of missed VNT rate placing VNT or spared endoscopy as the denominator are appropriate, providing, respectively, sensitivity and NPV for VNT. We privilege the first since it corresponds to the true proportion of missed VNT.

Screening and Surveillance of Varices in Patients With Cirrhosis

Gastro-esophageal varices (GEV) and variceal hemorrhage (VH) are clinical milestones in the natural history of cirrhosis, as they are closely related to the severity of portal hypertension and define specific stages in disease progression. Variceal hemorrhage is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis and is one of the clinical complications that defines cirrhosis decompensation. The goal of screening and surveillance of varices is to identify patients with GEV at a high risk of bleeding, so that prevention strategies can be implemented. There have been significant updates in the management of GEV over the last years, particularly in the use of non-invasive methods to assess the degree of portal hypertension and the likelihood of having GEV. This paper is focused on esophageal varices with or without extension along the lesser curvature (type 1 or GOV1), as special considerations are required for the management of cardiofundal varices (GOV2 - esophageal varices extending into the fundus, or IGV1 - isolated gastric varices in the fundus) or isolated gastric varices type 2 (IGV2 – gastric varices elsewhere in the stomach, not in the fundus).

Small Esophageal Varices in Patients with Cirrhosis-Should We Treat Them?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The natural history and classification systems of small varices (≤ 5 mm in diameter) in cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension are summarized. Studies that assessed the course of and therapeutic intervention for small varices are discussed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Current non-invasive methods show suboptimal sensitivity to detect small varices in patients with cirrhosis. Next to etiological therapy, hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG)-guided non-selective betablocker or carvedilol treatment has shown to impact on natural history of small varices.

SUMMARY

The main therapeutic focus in cirrhotic patients with small varices is the cure of the underlying etiology. The optimal management of small varices should include measurement of HVPG. A pharmacological decrease in HVPG by non-selective betablocker therapy of ≥ 10% reduces the risk of progression to large varices, first variceal bleeding, and hepatic decompensation. If HVPG is not available, we would recommend carvedilol 12.5 mg q.d. for treatment of small varices in compensated patients without severe ascites. Only if small esophageal varices (EV) are not treated or in hemodynamic non-responders, follow-up endoscopies should be performed in 1-2 years of intervals considering the activity of liver disease or if hepatic decompensation occurs.

A combined model based on spleen stiffness measurement and Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices in advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recently, Baveno VI guidelines suggested that esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) can be avoided in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who have a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150,000/mm³. We aimed to: assess the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in ruling out patients with high-risk varices (HRV); validate Baveno VI criteria in a large population and assess how the sequential use of Baveno VI criteria and SSM could safely avoid the need for endoscopy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 498 patients with cACLD who had undergone LSM/SSM by transient elastography (TE) (FibroScan®), platelet count and EGDs from 2012 to 2016 referred to our tertiary centre. The new combined model was validated internally by a split-validation method, and externally in a prospective multicentre cohort of 115 patients.

RESULTS

SSM, LSM, platelet count and Child-Pugh-B were independent predictors of HRV. Applying the newly identified SSM cut-off (≤46 kPa) or Baveno VI criteria, 35.8% and 21.7% of patients in the internal validation cohort could have avoided EGD, with only 2% of HRVs being missed with either model. The combination of SSM with Baveno VI criteria would have avoided an additional 22.5% of EGDs, reaching a final value of 43.8% spared EGDs, with <5% missed HRVs. Results were confirmed in the prospective external validation cohort, as the combined Baveno VI/SSM ≤46 model would have safely spared (0 HRV missed) 37.4% of EGDs, compared to 16.5% when using the Baveno VI criteria alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A non-invasive prediction model combining SSM with Baveno VI criteria may be useful to rule out HRV and could make it possible to avoid a significantly larger number of unnecessary EGDs compared to Baveno VI criteria only.

LAY SUMMARY

Spleen stiffness measurement assessed by transient elastography, the most widely used elastography technique, is a non-invasive technique that can help the physician to better stratify the degree of portal hypertension and the risk of esophageal varices in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Performing spleen stiffness measurement together with liver stiffness measurement during the same examination is simple and fast and this sequential model can identify a greater number of patients that can safely avoid endoscopy, which is an invasive and expensive examination.

Noninvasive Assessment of Portal Hypertension in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease: An Update

The assessment of portal hypertension is a relevant step in the evaluation of newly diagnosed advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The current gold standard includes the invasive evaluation of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and endoscopy. However, noninvasive or minimally invasive techniques to assess portal hypertension have been proposed and well established. In the present manuscript, we review clinical studies on the use of noninvasive or minimally invasive techniques to assess portal hypertension in ACLD patients.

Surveillance for portal hypertension in the course of liver cirrhosis

Non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment techniques are under development for evaluating the severity of liver disease and portal hypertension. The paper presents practical arrangements for the diagnosis and treatment of portal hypertension in patients with chronic liver disease, established in the Baveno VI Consensus Workshop for diagnosis and treatment of portal hypertension. Currently, the diagnostic standard of liver disease severity is transient elastography, which can identify patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (liver stiffness > 20 kPa). The paper presents the eligibility criteria for endoscopy and the principle of repeating the assessment of oesophageal varices. It also describes the primary and secondary prevention of gastroesophageal haemorrhage, the treatment of oesophageal bleeding and the treatment of liver vessel thrombosis.

Elastography methods for the non-invasive assessment of portal hypertension

The gold standard to assess the presence and severity of portal hypertension remains the hepatic vein pressure gradient, however the recent development of non-invasive assessment using elastography techniques offers valuable alternatives. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic accuracy and utility of such techniques in patients with portal hypertension due to cirrhosis. Areas covered: A literature search focused on liver and spleen stiffness measurement with different elastographic techniques for the assessment of the presence and severity of portal hypertension and oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease. The combination of elastography with parameters such as platelet count and spleen size is also discussed. Expert commentary: Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension is a validated tool for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients. Baveno VI recommended the combination of transient elastography and platelet count for ruling out varices needing treatment in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Assessment of aetiology specific cut-offs for ruling in and ruling out clinically significant portal hypertension is an unmet clinical need. The incorporation of spleen stiffness measurements in non-invasive algorithms using validated software and improved measuring scales might enhance the non-invasive diagnosis of portal hypertension in the next 5 years.

The noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices and its application in clinical practice

Here, we review recent improvements made to different noninvasive tests used for the diagnosis of esophageal varices (EV) in the light of the recent Baveno VI recommendation and with an emphasis on clinical application. Like for fibrosis tests, these noninvasive EV tests can be classified as direct markers when they provide a visualization of EV (including all imaging procedures like endoscopy or radiology) and as indirect markers when they do not (blood markers or elastometry). Clinical descriptors expressed as percentages, especially the spared endoscopy rate and the missed high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) rate, are more eloquent in this setting than classical statistical descriptors like accuracy. Single biomarkers are insufficient, generally due to a missed HREV rate exceeding the acceptable limit of 5% indicated in the Baveno VI consensus. Thus, biomarker combinations are currently garnering the most interest. The Baveno VI recommendation states that in alcoholic and viral cirrhoses, screening endoscopy can be safely set aside for patients with liver stiffness<20kPa and platelets>150G/L. The Baveno rule's mean missed HREV rate is<5% but its spared endoscopy rate is<20%. New combinations or stepwise algorithms show promise but must be validated. Going forward, the Baveno rule provides a simple noninvasive method to rule out HREV in clinical practice but the need for further research continues. The noninvasive diagnosis of HREV will be significantly improved by new, simple and affordable combinations.

Expanding the Baveno VI criteria for the screening of varices in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) can safely avoid screening endoscopy with a platelet count >150 × 109 cells/L and a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa (Baveno VI criteria). However, the total number of avoided endoscopies using this rule is relatively low. We aimed at expanding the Baveno VI criteria and validating them in additional cohorts. Patients from the Anticipate cohort (499 patients with cACLD of different etiologies) were used to study the performance of different thresholds of platelets and LSM for the identification of patients at very low risk (<5%) of having varices needing treatment (VNT). The new criteria (Expanded-Baveno VI) were validated in two additional cohorts from London (309 patients) and Barcelona (117 patients). The performance of the new criteria by etiology of cACLD was also assessed. The best new expanded classification rule was platelet count >110 × 109 cells/L and LSM <25 kPa. This was validated in the two additional cohorts. Overall, the Expanded-Baveno VI criteria would potentially spare 367 (40%) endoscopies (21% with Baveno VI criteria) with a risk of missing VNT of 1.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.7%-3.5%) in patients within the criteria and 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.3%-1.4%) in the overall population of 925 patients evaluated. The Expanded-Baveno VI criteria performed well in patients with cACLD with hepatitis C virus and alcoholic and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

CONCLUSION

The new Expanded-Baveno VI criteria spare more endoscopies than the original criteria with a minimal risk of missing VNT in most of the main etiologies of cACLD. (Hepatology 2017;66:1980-1988).

Advances and challenges in cirrhosis and portal hypertension

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is the fourth cause of death in adults in Western countries, with complications of portal hypertension being responsible for most casualties. In order to reduce mortality, development of accurate diagnostic methods for early diagnosis, effective etiologic treatment, improved pharmacological therapy for portal hypertension, and effective therapies for end-stage liver failure are required.

DISCUSSION

Early detection of cirrhosis and portal hypertension is now possible using simple non-invasive methods, leading to the advancement of individualized risk stratification in clinical practice. Despite previous assumptions, cirrhosis can regress if its etiologic cause is effectively removed. Nevertheless, while this is now possible for cirrhosis caused by chronic hepatitis C, the incidence of cirrhosis due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has increased dramatically and effective therapies are not yet available. New drugs acting on the dynamic component of hepatic vascular resistance are being studied and will likely improve the future management of portal hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Cirrhosis is now seen as a dynamic disease able to progress and regress between the compensated and decompensated stages. This opinion article aims to provide the author's personal view of the current major advances and challenges in this field.