Dengue in the Middle East and North Africa: A Systematic Review

Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Background

Responsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date.

Methods

We develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers.

Results

The variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species' distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement.

Conclusion

Accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.

High seroprevalence of dengue virus indicates that dengue virus infections are frequent in central and eastern Sudan

OBJECTIVES

To determine the seroprevalence of dengue in central and eastern Sudan and the breadth of neutralising antibody responses.

METHODS

Blood was drawn from 483 patients with fever who visited outpatient clinics in Port Sudan, Red Sea state, in three towns in Kassala state and in El Obeid, North Kordofan, in December 2012 and January 2013. Sera were tested for dengue virus IgG and IgM by ELISA (Panbio) and sera without serologic evidence of acute infection (IgM negative) were used for the analysis of the seroprevalence. DENV neutralisation tests were performed to determine the specificity of the ELISA and to examine the degree of cross-neutralisation of multiple DENV serotypes.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven per cent (302 of 448) of the sera were dengue virus IgG-positive. The seroprevalence in Port Sudan was 89% (106 of 119 sera), in Kassala 61% (128 of 209) and in North Kordofan 56.7% (68 of 120). Thirty-one of 32 ELISA-positive sera neutralised dengue viruses indicating that the ELISA was highly specific. The majority of the sera broadly neutralised all four dengue virus serotypes indicating multiple infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of the population in central and eastern Sudan has been infected with dengue viruses, many people repeatedly. The high seroprevalence underscores the need for extended dengue surveillance in Sudan, broad disease awareness in medical institutions and in the population and diagnostic capacity building for severe dengue infections.

Current and future distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background

Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs.

Methods

The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen–Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation.

Results

The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts’ extensive knowledge of the terrain.

Conclusion

Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seroprevalencia en una zona de hiperendemia por dengue, en Barranquilla, Colombia

Objetivo: Estimar seroprevalencia de anticuerpos IgG e IgM para dengue y factores asociados. Método: estudio transversal, mediante la aplicación de encuesta y estimación serológica para IgG e IgM para dengue en mayores de 15 años con representabilidad por localidad y sexo. 478 sujetos encuestados en la ciudad de Barranquilla Colombia Análisis estadístico, mediante el programa SPSS®, versión 22. Se estimó la sero-prevalencia para el análisis univariado y el análisis bivariado mediante la odds ratio de proporciones con una p<0,05. Resultados: la seroprevalencia para IgG fue 88,2% (IC 95% =85,2-91,1) y para IgM de 11,8% (IC 95%= 8,80-14,75). Se encon- tró asociación estadística en edades de 30 a 49 y 50-69 años (OR=7,09 [2,6-19,3] y OR= 8,93 [2,9-27,0] respectivamente), pertenecer al régimen de salud subsidiado (OR=2,56[1,18-5,53]) y ocupación hogar (OR= 3,38[1,31-8,67]. Conclusiones: la alta seroprevalencia para IgG es explicada por la circulación de los cuatro serotipos en el país, los brotes epidémicos cada dos a tres años y los comportamientos y prácticas desfavorables relacionadas con el manejo de agua. Se requiere cambios de conducta frente al manejo de factores predisponen- tes, la atención oportuna de sintomáticos y vigilancia activa comunitaria e institucional ante casos sospechosos.

Emerging and Reemerging Diseases in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region-Progress, Challenges, and WHO Initiatives

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) of the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to be a hotspot for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases and the need to prevent, detect, and respond to any infectious diseases that pose a threat to global health security remains a priority. Many risk factors contribute in the emergence and rapid spread of epidemic diseases in the Region including acute and protracted humanitarian emergencies, resulting in fragile health systems, increased population mobility, rapid urbanization, climate change, weak surveillance and limited laboratory diagnostic capacity, and increased human-animal interaction. In EMR, several infectious disease outbreaks were detected, investigated, and rapidly contained over the past 5 years including: yellow fever in Sudan, Middle East respiratory syndrome in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen, cholera in Iraq, avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in Egypt, and dengue fever in Yemen, Sudan, and Pakistan. Dengue fever remains an important public health concern, with at least eight countries in the region being endemic for the disease. The emergence of MERS-CoV in the region in 2012 and its continued transmission currently poses one of the greatest threats. In response to the growing frequency, duration, and scale of disease outbreaks, WHO has worked closely with member states in the areas of improving public health preparedness, surveillance systems, outbreak response, and addressing critical knowledge gaps. A Regional network for experts and technical institutions has been established to facilitate support for international outbreak response. Major challenges are faced as a result of protracted humanitarian crises in the region. Funding gaps, lack of integrated approaches, weak surveillance systems, and absence of comprehensive response plans are other areas of concern. Accelerated efforts are needed by Regional countries, with the continuous support of WHO, to build and maintain a resilient public health system for detection and response to all acute public health events.

Urban Chikungunya in the Middle East and North Africa: A systematic review

Background

The epidemiology of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is not well characterized despite increasing recognition of its expanding infection and disease burden in recent years.

Methodology / Principal findings

Following Cochrane Collaboration guidelines and reporting our findings following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed records describing the human prevalence and incidence, CHIKV prevalence/infection rates in vectors, outbreaks, and reported cases for CHIKV across the MENA region. We identified 29 human seroprevalence measures, one human incidence study, one study reporting CHIKV infection rates in Aedes, and nine outbreaks and case reports/series reported in the MENA from 1970–2015. Overall, anti-CHIKV antibody or reports of autochthonous transmission were identified from 10 of 23 countries in the MENA region (Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen), with seroprevalence measures among general populations (median 1.0%, range 0–43%) and acute febrile illness populations (median 9.8%, range 0–30%). Sudan reported the highest number of studies (n = 11) and the highest seroprevalence among general populations (median 12%, range 0–43%) and undifferentiated acute febrile illness populations (median 18%, range 10–23%). CHIKV outbreaks were reported from Djibouti, Pakistan, Sudan, and Yemen.

Conclusions / Significance

Seroprevalence studies and outbreak reports suggest endemic transmission of urban cycle CHIKV in at least the Red Sea region and Pakistan. However, indications of seroprevalence despite a low quantity of CHIKV epidemiologic research from the region suggests that CHIKV transmission is currently underrecognized.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus whose principal vectors are the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Though long endemic to Asia and Africa, detection of CHIKV has recently been reported throughout the Western Hemisphere, including much of South America and the Caribbean. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the epidemiology of CHIKV remains poorly characterized despite recent reports of outbreaks and novel transmission in the Arabian Peninsula. To better understand existing data describing the epidemiology of urban CHIKV in the MENA region, we conducted a systematic review of human prevalence studies and incidence studies; CHIKV detections, prevalence, and infection rates in Aedes; and reported CHIKV outbreaks, case series, and case reports from the region. A total of 29 seroprevalence studies were identified through our search, with anti-CHIKV antibodies and/or outbreaks detected in Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Sudan reported the highest number of studies (n = 11) and the highest seroprevalence among all studies. The epidemiology of urban CHIKV in other MENA countries is less well characterized, suggesting underascertainment of cases and the need for further research.