Akaike's information criterion in generalized estimating equations

Relationship between sunlight and the age of onset of bipolar disorder: an international multisite study

BACKGROUND

The onset of bipolar disorder is influenced by the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We previously found that a large increase in sunlight in springtime was associated with a lower age of onset. This study extends this analysis with more collection sites at diverse locations, and includes family history and polarity of first episode.

METHODS

Data from 4037 patients with bipolar I disorder were collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries at latitudes spanning 3.2 north (N) to 63.4 N and 38.2 south (S) of the equator. The age of onset of the first episode, onset location, family history of mood disorders, and polarity of first episode were obtained retrospectively, from patient records and/or direct interview. Solar insolation data were obtained for the onset locations.

RESULTS

There was a large, significant inverse relationship between maximum monthly increase in solar insolation and age of onset, controlling for the country median age and the birth cohort. The effect was reduced by half if there was no family history. The maximum monthly increase in solar insolation occurred in springtime. The effect was one-third smaller for initial episodes of mania than depression. The largest maximum monthly increase in solar insolation occurred in northern latitudes such as Oslo, Norway, and warm and dry areas such as Los Angeles, California.

LIMITATIONS

Recall bias for onset and family history data.

CONCLUSIONS

A large springtime increase in sunlight may have an important influence on the onset of bipolar disorder, especially in those with a family history of mood disorders.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in dogs: is high seroprevalence indicative of a reservoir role?

American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is a complex disease with a rich diversity of animal host species. This diversity imposes a challenge, since understanding ACL transmission requires the adequate identification of reservoir hosts, those species able to be a source of additional infections. In this study we present results from an ACL cross-sectional serological survey of 51 dogs (Canis familiaris), where we used diagnostic tests that measure dog's exposure to Leishmania spp. parasites. We did our research in Panamá, at a village that has undergone significant ecosystem level transformations. We found an ACL seroprevalence of 47% among dogs, and their exposure was positively associated with dog age and abundance of sand fly vectors in the houses of dog owners. Using mathematical models, which were fitted to data on the proportion of positive tests as function of dog age, we estimated a basic reproductive number (R 0 ± s.e.) of 1·22 ± 0·09 that indicates the disease is endemically established in the dogs. Nevertheless, this information by itself is insufficient to incriminate dogs as ACL reservoirs, given the inability to find parasites (or their DNA) in seropositive dogs and previously reported failures to experimentally infect vectors feeding on dogs with ACL parasites.

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales-(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

Sexual and Reproductive Health Indicators and Intimate Partner Violence Victimization Among Female Family Planning Clinic Patients Who Have Sex with Women and Men

BACKGROUND

Sexual minority women are more likely than heterosexual women to have ever experienced intimate partner violence (IPV). Although IPV is associated with sexual risk and poor reproductive health outcomes among US women overall, little is known about whether IPV is related to sexual and reproductive health indicators among sexual minority women in particular.

METHODS

Baseline data from a prospective intervention trial were collected from women ages 16-29 years at 24 family planning clinics in western PA (n=3,455). Multivariable logistic regression for clustered survey data was used to compare women who have sex with men only (WSM) and women who have sex with women and men (WSWM) on (1) IPV prevalence and (2) sexual and reproductive health behaviors, outcomes, and services use, controlling for IPV. Finally, we tested the interaction of sexual minority status and IPV.

RESULTS

WSWM were significantly more likely than WSM to report a lifetime history of IPV (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 3.00; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.30, 3.09). Controlling for IPV, WSWM reported higher levels of sexual risk behaviors (e.g., unprotected vaginal and anal sex), male-perpetrated reproductive coercion, unwanted pregnancy, and sexually transmitted infection (STI) and pregnancy testing but less contraceptive care seeking. The association between IPV and lifetime STI diagnosis was greater among WSWM than among WSM.

CONCLUSIONS

IPV was pervasive and associated with sexual risk and reproductive health indicators among WSWM in this clinic-based setting. Healthcare providers' sexual risk assessment and provision of sexual and reproductive health services should be informed by an understanding of women's sexual histories, including sex of sexual partners and IPV history, in order to help ensure that all women receive the clinical care they need.

A moving blocks empirical likelihood method for longitudinal data

In the analysis of longitudinal or panel data, neglecting the serial correlations among the repeated measurements within subjects may lead to inefficient inference. In particular, when the number of repeated measurements is large, it may be desirable to model the serial correlations more generally. An appealing approach is to accommodate the serial correlations nonparametrically. In this article, we propose a moving blocks empirical likelihood method for general estimating equations. Asymptotic results are derived under sequential limits. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed methods and compare them with the elementwise and subject-wise empirical likelihood methods of Wang et al. (2010, Biometrika 97, 79-93) and the block empirical likelihood method of You et al. (2006, Can. J. Statist. 34, 79-96). An application to an AIDS longitudinal study is presented.

Longitudinal average attributable fraction as a method for studying time-varying conditions and treatments on recurrent self-rated health: the case of medications in older adults with multiple chronic conditions

PURPOSE

The objective is to modify the longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction (LE-AAF) for recurrent outcomes with time-varying exposures and control for covariates.

METHODS

We included Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants with two or more chronic conditions enrolled from 2005 to 2009 with follow-up through 2011. Nine time-varying medications indicated for nine time-varying common chronic conditions and 14 of 18 forward-selected participant characteristics were used as control variables in the generalized estimating equations step of the LE-AAF to estimate associations with the recurrent universal health outcome self-rated health (SRH). Modifications of the LE-AAF were made to accommodate these indicated medication-condition interactions and covariates. Variability was empirically estimated by bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrapping.

RESULTS

In the adjusted LE-AAF, thiazide, warfarin, and clopidogrel had significant contributions of 1.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, respectively, to low (poor or fair) SRH; whereas there were no significant contributions of the other medications to SRH. Hyperlipidemia significantly contributed 4.6% to high SRH. All the other conditions except atrial fibrillation contributed significantly to low SRH.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modifications to the LE-AAF method apply to a recurrent binary outcome with time-varying factors accounting for covariates.

Concordance of Direct and Indirect Measures of Medication Adherence in A Treatment Trial for Cannabis Dependence

The current study compared adherence rates as measured by two indirect measurement methods (pill count and daily medication diary) to two direct measurement methods (urine riboflavin and serum 6-OH-buspirone level measurement) among participants (n = 109) in a medication treatment trial for cannabis dependence. Pill count and diary data showed high levels of percent agreement and strong kappa coefficients throughout the study. Riboflavin levels indicated lower level of percent in adherence during the study as compared to both pill count and self-report. In the subset of participants with 6-OH-buspirone levels (n = 58), the kappa coefficient also showed low to moderate agreement between the pill count and medication diaries with 6-OH-buspirone levels. In contrast to pill count and medication diaries, adherence as measured by riboflavin and 6-OH-buspirone significantly decreased over time. The findings from this study support previous work demonstrating that pill count and patient self-report of medication taking likely overestimate rates of medication adherence, and may become less reliable as the duration of a clinical trial increases.

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target.

Biomarker identification and effect estimation on schizophrenia - a high dimensional data analysis

Biomarkers have been examined in schizophrenia research for decades. Medical morbidity and mortality rates, as well as personal and societal costs, are associated with schizophrenia patients. The identification of biomarkers and alleles, which often have a small effect individually, may help to develop new diagnostic tests for early identification and treatment. Currently, there is not a commonly accepted statistical approach to identify predictive biomarkers from high dimensional data. We used space decomposition-gradient-regression (DGR) method to select biomarkers, which are associated with the risk of schizophrenia. Then, we used the gradient scores, generated from the selected biomarkers, as the prediction factor in regression to estimate their effects. We also used an alternative approach, classification and regression tree, to compare the biomarker selected by DGR and found about 70% of the selected biomarkers were the same. However, the advantage of DGR is that it can evaluate individual effects for each biomarker from their combined effect. In DGR analysis of serum specimens of US military service members with a diagnosis of schizophrenia from 1992 to 2005 and their controls, Alpha-1-Antitrypsin (AAT), Interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6r) and connective tissue growth factor were selected to identify schizophrenia for males; and AAT, Apolipoprotein B and Sortilin were selected for females. If these findings from military subjects are replicated by other studies, they suggest the possibility of a novel biomarker panel as an adjunct to earlier diagnosis and initiation of treatment.

Individual-Level and Partner-Level Predictors of Newly Diagnosed HIV Infection Among Black and White Men Who Have Sex with Men in Baltimore, MD

Black MSM continue to be the group most disproportionately impacted by HIV in the United States. This study assesses the relationship between partner-level and respondent-level characteristics and newly diagnosed HIV infection among a sample of MSM. Ego-centric data were gathered using venue-based time-space sampling on 335 men who reported on a total of 831 male anal sex partners. In multivariate analyses, age of partner, HIV status of partner, and respondent having had an STD in the past twelve months were associated with a newly diagnosed HIV infection among black MSM. Efforts for black MSM are needed that aim to increase HIV and STD testing, foster open communication between partners about HIV status, and address social determinants of health.

Influence of light exposure during early life on the age of onset of bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Environmental conditions early in life may imprint the circadian system and influence response to environmental signals later in life. We previously determined that a large springtime increase in solar insolation at the onset location was associated with a younger age of onset of bipolar disorder, especially with a family history of mood disorders. This study investigated whether the hours of daylight at the birth location affected this association.

METHODS

Data collected previously at 36 collection sites from 23 countries were available for 3896 patients with bipolar I disorder, born between latitudes of 1.4 N and 70.7 N, and 1.2 S and 41.3 S. Hours of daylight variables for the birth location were added to a base model to assess the relation between the age of onset and solar insolation.

RESULTS

More hours of daylight at the birth location during early life was associated with an older age of onset, suggesting reduced vulnerability to the future circadian challenge of the springtime increase in solar insolation at the onset location. Addition of the minimum of the average monthly hours of daylight during the first 3 months of life improved the base model, with a significant positive relationship to age of onset. Coefficients for all other variables remained stable, significant and consistent with the base model.

CONCLUSIONS

Light exposure during early life may have important consequences for those who are susceptible to bipolar disorder, especially at latitudes with little natural light in winter. This study indirectly supports the concept that early life exposure to light may affect the long term adaptability to respond to a circadian challenge later in life.

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis.

Effects of prescription nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs on symptoms and disease progression among patients with knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

The effect of short-term and long-term use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on structural change is equivocal. The aim of this study was to estimate the extent to which short- and long-term use of prescription NSAIDs relieve symptoms and delay structural progression among patients with radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee.

METHODS

We applied a new-user design among participants with confirmed OA not reporting NSAID use at the time of enrollment in the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Participants were evaluated for changes in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) subscales (n = 1,846) and joint space width was measured using serial radiographs and a customized software tool (n = 1,116) over 4 years. We used marginal structural modeling to estimate the effect of NSAIDs.

RESULTS

Compared to participants who never reported prescription NSAID use, those reporting use at 1 or 2 assessments had no clinically important changes, but those reporting prescription NSAID use at all 3 assessments had, on average, 0.88 point improvement over the followup period (95% confidence interval [95% CI] -0.46 to 2.22) in pain, 0.72 point improvement (95% CI -0.12 to 1.56) in stiffness, and 4.27 points improvement (95% CI -0.31 to 8.84) in function. The average change in joint space width was 0.28 mm less among those reporting NSAID use at 3 assessments relative to nonusers (95% CI -0.06 to 0.62). Recent NSAID use findings were not clinically or statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Long-term, but not short-term, NSAID use was associated with an a priori-defined minimally important clinical change in stiffness, physical function, and joint space width, but not pain. While showing modest clinical importance, the estimates did not reach statistical significance.

Effects of glucosamine and chondroitin supplementation on knee osteoarthritis: an analysis with marginal structural models

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to estimate the effectiveness of the combination of glucosamine and chondroitin in relieving knee symptoms and slowing disease progression among patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

The 4-year followup data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative data set were analyzed. We used a "new-user" design, for which only participants who were not using glucosamine/chondroitin at baseline were included in the analyses (n = 1,625). Cumulative exposure was calculated as the number of visits when participants reported use of glucosamine/chondroitin. Knee symptoms were measured with the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), and structural progression was determined by measuring the joint space width (JSW). To control for the time-varying confounders that might be influenced by previous treatments, we used marginal structural models to estimate the effects on OA of using glucosamine/chondroitin for 3 years, 2 years, and 1 year.

RESULTS

During the study period, 18% of the participants initiated treatment with glucosamine/chondroitin. After adjustment for potential confounders with marginal structural models, we found no clinically significant differences between users at all assessments and never-users of glucosamine/chondroitin in WOMAC pain (β = 0.68 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -0.16 to 1.53]), WOMAC stiffness (β = 0.41 [95% CI 0 to 0.82]), and WOMAC function (β = 1.28 [95% CI -1.23 to 3.79]) or JSW (β = 0.11 [95% CI -0.21 to 0.44]).

CONCLUSION

Use of glucosamine/chondroitin did not appear to relieve symptoms or modify disease progression among patients with radiographically confirmed OA. Our findings are consistent with the results of meta-analyses of clinical trials and extend those results to a more general population with knee OA.

Seasonal patterns of hormones, macroparasites, and microparasites in wild African ungulates: the interplay among stress, reproduction, and disease

Sex hormones, reproductive status, and pathogen load all affect stress. Together with stress, these factors can modulate the immune system and affect disease incidence. Thus, it is important to concurrently measure these factors, along with their seasonal fluctuations, to better understand their complex interactions. Using steroid hormone metabolites from fecal samples, we examined seasonal correlations among zebra and springbok stress, reproduction, gastrointestinal (GI) parasite infections, and anthrax infection signatures in zebra and springbok in Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia, and found strong seasonal effects. Infection intensities of all three GI macroparasites examined (strongyle helminths, Strongyloides helminths, and Eimeria coccidia) were highest in the wet season, concurrent with the timing of anthrax outbreaks. Parasites also declined with increased acquired immune responses. We found hormonal evidence that both mares and ewes are overwhelmingly seasonal breeders in ENP, and that reproductive hormones are correlated with immunosuppression and higher susceptibility to GI parasite infections. Stress hormones largely peak in the dry season, particularly in zebra, when parasite infection intensities are lowest, and are most strongly correlated with host mid-gestation rather than with parasite infection intensity. Given the evidence that GI parasites can cause host pathology, immunomodulation, and immunosuppression, their persistence in ENP hosts without inducing chronic stress responses supports the hypothesis that hosts are tolerant of their parasites. Such tolerance would help to explain the ubiquity of these organisms in ENP herbivores, even in the face of their potential immunomodulatory trade-offs with anti-anthrax immunity.

Disease Severity and Pregnancy Outcomes in Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists Autoimmune Diseases in Pregnancy Project

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease severity on pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with and without autoimmune diseases.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted using the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists Autoimmune Diseases in Pregnancy Project. Pregnant women with RA enrolled between 2005 and 2013 were selected if they (1) delivered a live-born singleton infant; and (2) completed 3 telephone-based measures of RA disease severity prior to 20 weeks' gestation, including the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI), pain score, and patient's global scale. Associations between RA disease severity and preterm delivery, small for gestational age (SGA), or cesarean delivery were tested in unadjusted and multivariate analyses using modified Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 440 women with RA. Several unadjusted comparisons yielded significant associations. After adjustment for covariates, increasing disease severity was associated with risk for preterm delivery and SGA. For each unit increase in HAQ-DI (0-1), the adjusted relative risk (aRR) for preterm delivery increased by 58% (aRR 1.58, 95% CI 1.17-2.15). Among those with HAQ-DI > 0.5, the aRR for SGA was 1.81 (95% CI 1.01-3.33).

CONCLUSION

RA disease severity in early pregnancy, as measured in this study, was predictive of preterm delivery and SGA. These findings suggest that the risk of preterm delivery and SGA in women with RA might be lowered if RA is well controlled early in pregnancy.

Causal effects of time-dependent treatments in older patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Treatment selection for elderly patients with lung cancer must balance the benefits of curative/life-prolonging therapy and the risks of increased mortality due to comorbidities. Lung cancer trials generally exclude patients with comorbidities and current treatment guidelines do not specifically consider comorbidities, so treatment decisions are usually made on subjective individual-case basis.

Methods

Impacts of surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy mono-treatment as well as combined chemo/radiation on one-year overall survival (compared to no-treatment) are studied for stage-specific lung cancer in 65+ y.o. patients. Methods of causal inference such as propensity score with inverse probability weighting (IPW) for time-independent and marginal structural model (MSM) for time-dependent treatments are applied to SEER-Medicare data considering the presence of comorbid diseases.

Results

122,822 patients with stage I (26.8%), II (4.5%), IIIa (11.5%), IIIb (19.9%), and IV (37.4%) lung cancer were selected. Younger age, smaller tumor size, and fewer baseline comorbidities predict better survival. Impacts of radio- and chemotherapy increased and impact of surgery decreased with more advanced cancer stages. The effects of all therapies became weaker after adjustment for selection bias, however, the changes in the effects were minor likely due to the weak selection bias or incompleteness of the list of predictors that impacted treatment choice. MSM provides more realistic estimates of treatment effects than the IPW approach for time-independent treatment.

Conclusions

Causal inference methods provide substantive results on treatment choice and survival of older lung cancer patients with realistic expectations of potential benefits of specific treatments. Applications of these models to specific subsets of patients can aid in the development of practical guidelines that help optimize lung cancer treatment based on individual patient characteristics.

Soluble macrophage biomarkers indicate inflammatory phenotypes in patients with knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the ability of the macrophage markers CD163 and CD14 to predict different osteoarthritis (OA) phenotypes defined by severity of joint inflammation, radiographic features and progression, and joint pain.

METHODS

We evaluated 2 different cohorts totaling 184 patients with radiographic knee OA. These included 25 patients from a cross-sectional imaging study for whom there were data on activated macrophages in the knee joint, and 159 patients (134 with 3-year longitudinal data) from the longitudinal Prediction of Osteoarthritis Progression study. Multivariable linear regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association of CD163 and CD14 in synovial fluid (SF) and blood with OA phenotypic outcomes. Models were adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index. P values less than or equal to 0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

SF CD14, SF CD163, and serum CD163 were associated with the abundance of activated macrophages in the knee joint capsule and synovium. SF CD14 was positively associated with severity of joint space narrowing and osteophytes in both cohorts. SF and plasma CD14 were positively associated with self-reported knee pain severity in the imaging study. Both SF CD14 and SF CD163 were positively associated with osteophyte progression.

CONCLUSION

Soluble macrophage biomarkers reflected the abundance of activated macrophages and appeared to mediate structural progression (CD163 and CD14) and pain (CD14) in OA knees. These data support the central role of inflammation as a determinant of OA severity, progression risk, and clinical symptoms, and they suggest a means of readily identifying a subset of patients with an active inflammatory state and worse prognosis.

A novel coronary angiography index (DILEMMA score) for prediction of functionally significant coronary artery stenoses assessed by fractional flow reserve: A novel coronary angiography index

BACKGROUND

Angiographic evaluation of diameter stenosis has modest predictive value for functionally significant coronary artery stenoses as assessed by fractional flow reserve (FFR). Lesion length and assessment of area of myocardium at risk (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation [BARI] Myocardial Jeopardy Index [MJI]) subtended by the stenotic coronary arteries are also predictors of functionally significant coronary artery stenoses. We sort to assess the diagnostic accuracy of DILEMMA score, which combines minimal lumen diameter (MLD), lesion length, and BARI MJI in prediction of significantly reduced FFR (≤0.8).

METHODS

We assessed patients who underwent coronary angiography and FFR. Lesion length and MLD were assessed by quantitative coronary angiography. Estimation of area of myocardium at risk subtended by coronary stenoses was performed using the BARI MJI.

RESULTS

A total of 296 patients (age 64 ± 10.6 years, 68% male, 497 vessels) were included. DILEMMA score was significantly higher in vessels with significant FFR, 6.09 ± 3.23 versus 3.84 ± 2.99 (P < .001). In the derivation cohort, the optimism-adjusted Harrell c statistic for DILEMMA score was 0.82 compared with 0.76 for BARI MJI, 0.75 for lesion length, and 0.7 for MLD. In the validation cohort, the c-statistic for DILEMMA score, BARI MJI, lesion length, and MLD was 0.88, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.72, respectively. The DILEMMA score was a better predictor of FFR ≤0.8 compared with MLD, lesion length, and BARI MJI individually (P < .001, P < .02, and P < .045, respectively) on Bonferroni-adjusted pairwise comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

DILEMMA score, taking into account MLD, lesion length, and BARI MJI, may have incremental predictive value beyond the individual indices alone for detecting functionally significant coronary artery stenoses.

Serum lipids, lipoproteins, and risk of breast cancer: a nested case-control study using multiple time points

BACKGROUND

There is strong evidence that breast cancer risk is influenced by environmental factors. Blood lipid and lipoprotein levels are also influenced by environmental factors and are associated with some breast cancer risk factors. We examined whether serial measures of serum lipids and lipoproteins were associated with breast cancer risk.

METHODS

We carried out a nested case-control study within a randomized long-term dietary intervention trial with 4690 women with extensive mammographic density followed for an average of 10 years for breast cancer incidence. We measured lipids in an average of 4.2 blood samples for 279 invasive breast cancer case subjects and 558 matched control subjects. We calculated subaverages of lipids for each subject based on menopausal status and use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) at blood collection and analyzed their association with breast cancer using generalized estimating equations. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

High-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) (P = .05) and apoA1 (P = .02) levels were positively associated with breast cancer risk (75(th) vs 25(th) percentile: HDL-C, 23% higher; apoA1, 28% higher) and non-HDL-C (P = .03) and apoB (P = .01) levels were negatively associated (75(th) vs 25(th) percentile: non-HDL-C, 19% lower; apoB, 22% lower). These associations were observed only when lipids were measured when HRT was not used. Total cholesterol and triglyceride levels were not statistically significantly associated with breast cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that serum lipids are associated with breast cancer risk in women with extensive mammographic density. The possibility that interventions for heart disease prevention, which aim to reduce non-HDL-C or raise HDL-C, may have effects on breast cancer risk merits examination.

Effect of Hemoglobin Transfusion Threshold on Cerebral Hemodynamics and Oxygenation

Cerebral dysfunction caused by traumatic brain injury may adversely affect cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation leading to worse outcomes if oxygen capacity is decreased due to anemia. In a randomized clinical trial of 200 patients comparing transfusion thresholds <7 g/dl versus 10 g/dl, where transfusion of leukoreduced packed red blood cells was used to maintain the assigned hemoglobin threshold, no long-term neurological difference was detected. The current study examines secondary outcome measures of intracranial pressure (ICP), cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and brain tissue oxygenation (PbtO2) in patients enrolled in this randomized clinical trial. We observed a lower hazard for death (hazard ratio [HR]=0.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.02-0.99) during the first 3 days post-injury, and a higher hazard for death after three days (HR=2.55, 95% CI=1.00-6.53) in the 10 g/dl threshold group as compared to the 7 g/dL threshold group. No significant differences were observed for ICP and CPP but MAP was slightly lower in the 7 g/dL group, although the decreased MAP did not result in increased hypotension. Overall brain tissue hypoxia events were not significantly different in the two transfusion threshold groups. When the PbtO2 catheter was placed in normal brain, however, tissue hypoxia occurred in 25% of patients in the 7 g/dL threshold group, compared to 10.2% of patients in the 10 g/dL threshold group (p=0.04). Although we observed a few differences in hemodynamic outcomes between the transfusion threshold groups, none were of major clinical significance and did not affect long-term neurological outcome and mortality.

Barriers to health and social services for street-involved youth in a Canadian setting

Although street-involved youth contend with many health and social problems, the extent to which vulnerable youth engage with supportive services has not been well described. This study sought to examine the prevalence and correlates associated with having difficulty accessing health and social services among a prospective cohort of street-involved youth in Vancouver, Canada. Among 1019 street-involved youth, 650 (64 per cent) reported having difficulty accessing services during the study period. In a multivariate analysis, youth who reported having difficulty accessing services were significantly more likely to be socially and economically vulnerable. Specifically, they were more likely to report severe housing instability, high-intensity drug use, recent interactions with law enforcement, drug dealing, and histories of violence and physical abuse. Study findings point to opportunities to improve access to services among vulnerable youth through removal of blanket age restrictions for youth services, establishing youth-centric social housing, and supporting peer-driven, low-threshold services.

Lens status influences the association between CFH polymorphisms and age-related macular degeneration: findings from two population-based studies in Singapore

Aims

To determine the differential effects of genetic polymorphism in CFH and ARMS2 on risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) between phakic vs. pseudophakic/aphakic eyes.

Methods

9,529 eyes of 4,918 participants from the Singapore Malay Eye Study and Singapore Indian Eye Study were analyzed. Participants had detailed eye examinations, including slit-lamp examinations and dilated fundus photography. AMD grading was performed according to the Wisconsin age-related maculopathy grading system. Lens status was defined. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs10801555 (Y402H) within CFH and rs3750847 in ARMS2 were assessed. The main outcome measure was early AMD or any AMD.

Results

No significant associations between the CFH Y402H genotypes and early AMD were found in phakic individuals. In contrast, among pseudophakic/aphakic individuals, the CFH Y402H risk genotypes were significantly associated with higher odds of early AMD, with an OR of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.07–2.29) for GA genotype and 2.40 (95% CI: 1.25–4.61) for AA genotype, compared to those with GG genotype. There was significant interaction between pseudophakic/aphakic status and CFH Y402H variant on risk of early AMD (p = 0.037), adjusting for age, gender, and the first 5 genetic principal components. No significant interaction was found between lens status and ARMS2 rs3750847.

Conclusions

CFH genetic polymorphism and pseudophakic/aphakic status may have a potential synergistic effect on early AMD, suggesting roles for the complement system and related pathways in the pathogenesis of AMD in eyes after cataract surgery.

Occupational determinants of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonization among healthcare workers: a longitudinal study in a rehabilitation center

BACKGROUND Staphylococcus aureus carriage among healthcare workers (HCWs) is a concern in hospital settings, where it may provide a reservoir for later infections in both patients and staff. Earlier studies have shown that the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage in HCWs is highly variable, depending notably on location, hospital department type, MRSA prevalence among patients, and type of contacts with patients. However, MRSA incidence in HCWs and its occupational determinants have seldom been studied. METHODS A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted between May and October 2009 in a French rehabilitation center hospital. HCWs and patients were screened weekly for S. aureus nasal carriage. Methicillin-susceptible S. aureus and MRSA prevalence and incidence were estimated and factors associated with MRSA acquisition were identified using generalized estimating equation regression methods. RESULTS Among 343 HCWs included in the analysis, the average prevalence was 27% (95% CI, 24%-29%) for methicillin-susceptible S. aureus and 10% (8%-11%) for MRSA. We observed 129 MRSA colonization events. According to the multivariable analysis, high MRSA prevalence level among patients and HCW occupation were significantly associated with MRSA acquisition in HCWs, with assistant nurses being more at risk than nurses (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4-3.6). CONCLUSIONS Our findings may help further our understanding of the transmission dynamics of MRSA carriage acquisition in HCWs, suggesting that it is notably driven by carriage among patients and by the type of contact with patients.

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii)

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.

American marten respond to seismic lines in northern Canada at two spatial scales

Development of hydrocarbon resources across northwest Canada has spurred economic prosperity and generated concerns over impacts to biodiversity. To balance these interests, numerous jurisdictions have adopted management thresholds that allow for limited energy development but minimize undesirable impacts to wildlife. Used for exploration, seismic lines are the most abundant linear feature in the boreal forest and exist at a variety of widths and recovery states. We used American marten (Martes americana) as a model species to measure how line attributes influence species’ response to seismic lines, and asked whether responses to individual lines trigger population impacts. Marten response to seismic lines was strongly influenced by line width and recovery state. Compared to forest interiors, marten used open seismic lines ≥ 3 m wide less often, but used open lines ≤ 2 m wide and partially recovered lines ≥ 6 m wide similarly. Marten response to individual line types appeared to trigger population impacts. The probability of occurrence at the home range scale declined with increasing seismic line density, and the inclusion of behavioral response to line density calculations improved model fit. In our top performing model, we excluded seismic lines ≤ 2 m from our calculation of line density, and the probability of occurrence declined > 80% between home ranges with the lowest and highest line densities. Models that excluded seismic lines did not strongly explain occurrence. We show how wildlife-derived metrics can inform regulatory guidelines to increase the likelihood those guidelines meet intended management objectives. With respect to marten, not all seismic lines constitute disturbances, but avoidance of certain line types scales to population impacts. This approach provides the ecological context required to understand cause and effect relationships among socio-economic and ecological conservation goals.

Changes in the locomotory and reproductive behavior of Biomphalaria glabrata infected with Schistosoma mansoni

The infection and development of a parasite may cause physiological, morphological and behavioral changes in its host. Changes in the locomotory activity of a host induced by their parasites may also influence the life-cycles of both host and parasite in the environment. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the locomotory activities of Biomphalaria glabrata before and after an experimental infection with Schistosoma mansoni relating to the shedding of cercaria. In addition, the reproductive parameters of infected B. glabrata were analyzed during the prepatent and patent periods of the infection. The locomotory activity was recorded using an image analysis biomonitoring system based on a Videomex V. Five parameters were analyzed: 'Distance traveled', 'Ambulatory time', 'Stereotypic time', 'Resting time' and 'Average speed'. The number of shed cercariae was counted twice at 45 and 52 days post-infection. The reproductive parameters of infected B. glabrata analyzed were the numbers of egg masses, eggs and hatched snails. All statistical analyses were performed using the R program. Of the 69 snails infected with S. mansoni, 33 (47.8%) shed cercariae ('positive') and 36 (52.2%) ('exposed') failed to exhibit any cercarial shedding prior to the end of the experiment. The locomotory activity of the all snails increased significantly after infection with S. mansoni. However, when the 'positive' and 'exposed' snails were compared, the former, shedding cercariae, were less motile. With regard to reproduction, 84.8% (28/33) of the 'positive' and 27.7% (10/36) of the 'exposed' snails failed to lay egg masses during patent period. The number of cercariae individually shed by each 'positive' snail presented a positive relation with 'Stereotypic time' and a negative relation with egg laying. Our findingshighlight the way in which infection with S. mansoni affects the locomotory and the reproductive behavior of B. glabrata. The number of cercariae shed is directly associated with the reduction/interruption in egg-laying and with an increase in random movement.

Retinal thickness measured by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in eyes without retinal abnormalities: the Beaver Dam Eye Study

PURPOSE

To examine relationships of age, sex, and systemic and ocular conditions with retinal thickness measured by spectral-domain ocular coherence tomography (SD OCT) in participants without retinal disease.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study.

METHODS

setting: Population-based cohort. study population: Persons aged 43-86 years living in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin in 1988-1990. observation procedures: Retinal thickness was measured via SD OCT at the Beaver Dam Eye Study examination in 2008-2010. Retinal disease was determined by ophthalmoscopy, fundus photography, or SD OCT. main outcome measures: Retinal thickness from the inner limiting membrane to the Bruch membrane.

RESULTS

The retina was thickest in the inner circle (mean 334.5 μm) and thinnest in the center subfield (285.4 μm). Mean retinal thickness decreased with age in the inner circle (P < .0001) and outer circle (P < .0001). Adjusting for age, eyes in men had thicker retinas than eyes in women in the center subfield (P < .001) and inner circle (P < .001). Sex, axial length/corneal curvature ratio, and peak expiratory flow rate were associated with center subfield thickness. Sex and peak expiratory flow rate were associated with retinal thickness in the inner circle. Alcohol consumption, age, axial length/corneal curvature ratio, cataract surgery, ocular perfusion pressure, and peak expiratory flow rate were associated with retinal thickness in the outer circle.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides data for retinal thickness measures in eyes of individuals aged 63 years and older without retinal disease. This information may be useful for clinical trials involving the effects of interventions on retinal thickness and for comparisons with specific retinal diseases affecting the macula.

Drinking behavior among older adults at a continuing care retirement community: affective and motivational influences

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this pilot study was to describe patterns of alcohol consumption among continuing care retirement community(CCRC) residents and to explore the role of drinking motives and affective states on drinking context and consumption.

METHOD

We utilized a phone-based daily diary approach to survey older adults about their daily alcohol consumption, context of drinking (e.g. drinking alone), positive and negative affect, and their motives for drinking. Data were analyzed descriptively, and regression models were developed to examine associations between sociodemographic factors, affect, drinking context and motives, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

CCRC residents drank most frequently at home and were alone almost half of drinking days on average, although the context of drinking varied considerably by participant. Problem alcohol use was rare, but hazardous use due to specific comorbidities, symptoms and medications, and the amount of alcohol consumption was common. Respondents endorsed higher social motives for drinking and lower coping motives. Social motives were associated with decreased likelihood of drinking alone, but negative affect was associated with decreased likelihood of drinking outside one's home. Coping and social motives were associated with greater consumption, and higher positive affect was associated with lower consumption.

CONCLUSION

Among CCRC residents, alcohol use may be socially motivated rather than motivated by coping with negative affect. Future research should examine other motives for drinking in older adulthood. Evaluation of older adults living in CCRCs should include attention to health factors beyond problem use as other forms of hazardous use may be common in CCRCs.

The ASLA Score: A CT Angiographic Index to Predict Functionally Significant Coronary Stenoses in Lesions with Intermediate Severity-Diagnostic Accuracy

PURPOSE

To identify computed tomographic (CT) coronary indexes independently associated with a fractional flow reserve (FFR) of 0.8 or less, to derive a score that combines CT indexes most predictive of an FFR of 0.8 or less, and to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the score in predicting an FFR of 0.8 or less.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study had institutional review board approval and waiver of the need to obtain informed consent. Consecutive patients who underwent CT coronary angiography and FFR assessment with one or more discrete lesion(s) of intermediate (30%-70%) severity at CT were included. Quantitative CT measurements were performed by using dedicated software. The CT indexes evaluated included the following: plaque burden, minimal luminal area and diameter, stenosis diameter, area of stenosis, lesion length, remodeling index, plaque morphology, calcification severity, and the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) score, which approximates the size of the myocardium subtended by a lesion. By using covariates independently associated with an FFR of 0.8 or less, a score was determined on the basis of modified Akaike information criteria, and the C statistics of individual and combined indexes were compared.

RESULTS

Eighty-five patients (mean age, 64.2 years; range, 48-88 years; 65.9% men; 124 lesions; 38 lesions with an FFR ≤ 0.8) were included. Area of stenosis, lesion length, and APPROACH score were the strongest predictors of an FFR of 0.8 or less and were used to derive the ASLA score. The optimism-adjusted Harrell C statistic for the combined score was 0.82, which was superior to that for area of stenosis (0.74), lesion length (0.75), and the APPROACH score (0.71) (P < .001 for trend). The corresponding incremental discrimination improvement indexes were 0.17, 0.11, and 0.19, respectively (P < .001 for all), suggesting that the score improves reclassification compared with any one angiographic index. The average time required for score derivation was 102.6 seconds.

CONCLUSION

The ASLA score, which accounts for CT-derived area of stenosis, lesion length, and APPROACH score, may conveniently improve the prediction, beyond individual indexes, of functionally significant intermediate coronary lesions.

Influence of Sampling Site on Uterine Artery Doppler Indices at 11-13+6 Weeks Gestation

Introduction: Uterine artery pulsatility index (PI) is a key variable in the first trimester screening for pre-eclampsia. The aims of the study were to examine the effect of sampling the uterine arteries at a site distal to the level of the internal os, and to determine a lower limit of peak systolic velocity (PSV) to establish an auditable standard. Material and Methods: PI and PSV measurements were performed at 11-13+6 weeks' gestation at two sites: at the level of the internal os and 3 cm distal to the internal os. Comparative analyses utilised the Student's paired t-test. A 90% reference interval of transformed PSV measurements at the internal os was generated by polynomial regression. Results: There was a significant reduction in both the PI (14.9%) and the PSV (17.4%) when measured at the distal site compared to the level of the internal os (both p < 0.001). The best estimated 5th centile for uterine artery PSV at 11-13+6 weeks was 60.9 cm/s. Conclusion: PI measurements performed distal to the internal os are significantly lower and will result in inaccurate pre-eclampsia risk assessment. PSV measurements below 60 cm/s are likely to indicate an incorrect sampling site. Development of auditable measurement standards is important to ensure accuracy of prospective pre-eclampsia screening.

Trapezius muscle activity increases during near work activity regardless of accommodation/vergence demand level

Aim

To investigate if trapezius muscle activity increases over time during visually demanding near work.

Methods

The vision task consisted of sustained focusing on a contrast-varying black and white Gabor grating. Sixty-six participants with a median age of 38 (range 19–47) fixated the grating from a distance of 65 cm (1.5 D) during four counterbalanced 7-min periods: binocularly through −3.5 D lenses, and monocularly through −3.5 D, 0 D and +3.5 D. Accommodation, heart rate variability and trapezius muscle activity were recorded in parallel.

Results

General estimating equation analyses showed that trapezius muscle activity increased significantly over time in all four lens conditions. A concurrent effect of accommodation response on trapezius muscle activity was observed with the minus lenses irrespective of whether incongruence between accommodation and convergence was present or not.

Conclusions

Trapezius muscle activity increased significantly over time during the near work task. The increase in muscle activity over time may be caused by an increased need of mental effort and visual attention to maintain performance during the visual tasks to counteract mental fatigue.

Socioeconomic marginalisation in the structural production of vulnerability to violence among people who use illicit drugs

OBJECTIVE

Many people who use illicit drugs (PWUD) face challenges to their financial stability. Resulting activities that PWUD undertake to generate income may increase their vulnerability to violence. We therefore examined the relationship between income generation and exposure to violence across a wide range of income generating activities among HIV-positive and HIV-negative PWUD living in Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

Data were derived from cohorts of HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative PWUD (n=1876) between December 2005 and November 2012. We estimated the relationship between different types of income generation and suffering physical or sexual violence using bivariate and multivariate generalised estimating equations, as well as the characteristics of violent interactions.

RESULTS

Exposure to violence was reported among 977 (52%) study participants over the study period. In multivariate models controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, mental health status, and drug use patterns, violence was independently and positively associated with participation in street-based income generation activities (ie, recycling, squeegeeing and panhandling; adjusted OR (AOR)=1.39, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.57), sex work (AOR=1.23, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.50), drug dealing (AOR=1.63, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.84), and theft and other acquisitive criminal activity (AOR=1.51, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.80). Engagement in regular, self-employment or temporary employment was not associated with being exposed to violence. Strangers were the most common perpetrators of violence (46.7%) and beatings the most common type of exposure (70.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that economic activities expose individuals to contexts associated with social and structural vulnerability to violence. The creation of safe economic opportunities which can minimise vulnerability to violence among PWUD is therefore urgently required.

Networking and data sharing reduces hospitalization cost of heart failure: the experience of GISC study

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Heart failure (HF) is a concerning public health burden in Western society because, despite the improvement of medical treatments, it is still associated with adverse outcomes (high morbidity and mortality), resulting in one of the most expensive chronic disease in Western countries. Hospital admission particularly is the most expensive cost driver among the several resources involved in the management of HF. The aim of our study was to investigate the cost of hospitalization before and after the enrolment to a new strategy (GISC) in the management of patients with HF.

METHODS

We enrolled a cohort of 90 patients. Patients were eligible to the study if they were hospitalized with a new diagnosis of HF or a diagnosis of decompensated HF. The enrolment to the study corresponded to the enrolment to the GISC intervention. We calculated the cost for every hospital admission at 6 and 12 months before and after the enrolment using the tariff paid for the diagnosis-related group.

RESULTS

Comparing per-patient cumulative cost before and after the enrolment, we showed that patient's hospitalization was less expensive after the enrolment to the GISC intervention. The strategy resulted in an average cumulative estimated saving of €439322.00 (95% CI €413890.70; €464753.40) at 6 months and of €832276.80 (95% CI €786863.70; €877690.00) at 12 months after the enrolment.

CONCLUSIONS

We found out that the intervention was a cost-saving strategy for follow-up of the patients suffering from HF at 6 and 12 months after the enrolment compared with hospitalizations' cost before the recruitment.

Targeted temperature management processes and outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: an observational cohort study*

OBJECTIVES

Targeted temperature management has been shown to improve survival with good neurological outcome in patients after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The optimal approach to inducing and maintaining targeted temperature management, however, remains uncertain. The objective of this study was to evaluate these processes of care with survival and neurological function in patients after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study evaluating the association of targeted temperature management processes with survival and neurological function using bivariate and generalized estimating equation analyses.

SETTING

Thirty-two tertiary and community hospitals in eight urban and rural regions of southern Ontario, Canada.

PATIENTS

Consecutive adult (≥ 18 yr) patients admitted between November 1, 2007, and January 31, 2012, and who were treated with targeted temperature management following nontraumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

INTERVENTIONS

Evaluate the association of targeted temperature management processes with survival and neurologic function using bivariate and generalized estimating equation analyses.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

There were 5,770 consecutive out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, of whom 747 (12.9%) were eligible and received targeted temperature management. Among patients with available outcome data, 365 of 738 (49.5%) survived to hospital discharge and 241 of 675 (35.7%) had good neurological outcomes. After adjusting for the Utstein variables, a higher temperature prior to initiation of targeted temperature management was associated with improved neurological outcomes (odds ratio, 1.27 per °C; 95% CI, 1.08-1.50; p = 0.004) and survival (odds ratio, 1.26 per °C; 95% CI, 1.09-1.46; p = 0.002). A slower rate of cooling was associated with improved neurological outcomes (odds ratio, 0.74 per °C/hr; 95% CI, 0.57-0.97; p = 0.03) and survival (odds ratio, 0.73 per °C/hr; 95% CI, 0.54-1.00; p = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher baseline temperature prior to initiation of targeted temperature management and a slower rate of cooling were associated with improved survival and neurological outcomes. This may reflect a complex relationship between the approach to targeted temperature management and the extent of underlying brain injury causing impaired thermoregulation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients.

The cost of hospital readmissions: evidence from the VA

This paper is an examination of hospital 30-day readmission costs using data from 119 acute care hospitals operated by the U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) in fiscal year 2011. We applied a two-part model that linked readmission probability to readmission cost to obtain patient level estimates of expected readmission cost for VA patients overall, and for patients discharged for three prevalent conditions with relatively high readmission rates. Our focus was on the variable component of direct patient cost. Overall, managers could expect to save $2140 for the average 30-day readmission avoided. For heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia patients, expected readmission cost estimates were $3432, $2488 and $2278. Patient risk of illness was the dominant driver of readmission cost in all cases. The VA experience has implications for private sector hospitals that treat a high proportion of chronically ill and/or low income patients, or that are contemplating adopting bundled payment mechanisms.

Characteristics of surgical patients receiving inappropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotics have been observed to result in an increased duration of antibiotic treatment and hospital length of stay, development of multidrug-resistant organisms, and mortality rate compared with appropriate antibiotic treatment. Few studies have evaluated independent risk factors associated with inappropriateness. The purpose of this study was to identify independent predictors of inappropriate, empiric antimicrobial therapy for the treatment of severe sepsis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of all surgical/trauma patients admitted to a tertiary care center from 1996 to 2007 and treated for sepsis. "Appropriate" empiric antibiotic treatment was determined by sensitivity testing. Demographics and comorbidities, infection sites, infection organisms, and outcomes between strata were compared. Differences in outcome were estimated using relative risk and 95% confidence intervals for correlated data.

RESULTS

A total of 2,855 patients (7,158 infections) were identified. Independent predictors of inappropriate, empiric antimicrobial therapy for the treatment of severe sepsis included site of infection and organism type. Severity of illness, age, medical conditions, and community versus health care-associated infections were not associated with inappropriate therapy. Although inappropriate empiric therapy was associated with a longer length of stay and duration of antimicrobial use, it did not result in higher mortality.

CONCLUSION

Our study observed that inappropriate empiric antibiotic selection is related to site of infection and pathogen. Other clinical variables do not appear to predict inappropriateness of antibiotic treatment. Efforts should be focused on early broad-spectrum therapy and more rapid microbiologic methods.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/care management study, level II.

Odors from sewage sludge and livestock: associations with self-reported health

OBJECTIVES

Class B treated sewage sludge (TSS) contains microbes and toxicants and is applied to land in areas where livestock wastes may be present. We evaluated relationships of reports of TSS and livestock odors with acute symptoms and excessive flies.

METHODS

A total of 158 adults living near liquid TSS application sites, 85 living near cake TSS application sites, and 188 living in comparison areas responded to a household survey regarding odors, health, and demographics. We identified symptom groups using factor analysis. We used generalized estimating equations to fit linear models for associations between factor scores and odors, and Poisson models for associations with specific symptoms.

RESULTS

Most factor scores were similar between exposure groups. Covariate-adjusted z-scores for lower respiratory symptoms were 0.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.10, 0.65) higher among residents who reported moderate to very strong liquid TSS odor than among residents in comparison areas, and 0.28 (95% CI 0.05, 0.50) higher among residents who reported moderate to very strong livestock odor compared with residents reporting no or faint livestock odor. The factor score for dermatologic conditions was higher among residents who reported higher liquid sludge odor (0.27, 95% CI -0.13, 0.68), primarily due to skin rash (prevalence ratio = 2.21, 95% CI 1.13, 4.32). Excessive flies were reported twice as commonly among respondents who reported moderate to very strong TSS odor than among other residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Reported odors from TSS and livestock were associated with some acute symptoms. Health departments should monitor land applications of human and animal wastes and conduct surveillance of health problems reported by neighbors.

Association Between Physician Caseload and Patient Outcome for Sepsis Treatment

Objective.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether physicians with larger sepsis caseloads provide better outcomes, defined as lower in-hospital mortality rates, for patients with sepsis.

Design.

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

Method.

This study used pooled data from the 2002-2004 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 48,336 patients hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of septicemia were selected and assigned to 1 of 4 caseload groups on the basis of their treating physician's sepsis caseload during the 3 years reflected in the pooled data (low caseload, less than 39 cases; medium caseload, 39–88 cases; high caseload, 89–176 cases; and very high caseload, more than 176 cases). Generalized estimating equation models were used for analysis.

Results.

Receipt of treatment from physicians in the very high, high, and medium caseload groups decreased patients' odds of inhospital mortality by 49% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-0.67; P < .001 ), 40% (95% CI, 0.53-0.68; P < .001 ), and 18% (95% CI, 0.73-0.92; P < .001), respectively, compared with the odds for patients treated by low-caseload physicians. These findings persisted after partitioning out systematic physician-specific and hospital-specific variation and isolating the effects of most hospital, physician, and patient confounders.

Conclusion.

Patients treated by physicians who had a larger sepsis caseload had a substantially lower in-hospital mortality rate than did patients treated by physicians in the other caseload groups, and the difference was statistically significant. This result supports the “practice makes perfect” hypothesis.

Patterns of, and Factors Associated With, Illicit Pharmaceutical Opioid Analgesic Use in a Prospective Cohort of People Who Inject Drugs in Melbourne, Australia

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population engaging in pharmaceutical opioid analgesic (PO) use, yet little is known about patterns of illicit PO use among this group.

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this research were to measure the prevalence and frequency of lifetime and past-month illicit PO use and injection in a sample of regular PWID, to examine patterns of past-month illicit PO use within individuals over time, and to identify factors independently associated with past-month illicit PO use.

METHODS

Data were drawn from a prospective cohort study of regular PWID (N = 666) in Melbourne, Australia. Data from five waves of annual data collection (including baseline) were analyzed descriptively and using generalized estimating equations (GEE).

RESULTS

At baseline, 59% of participants reported lifetime illicit PO use and 20% reported past-month use, predominantly through injecting. Most illicit PO users at baseline transitioned to nonuse of illicit POs across the study period. In multivariable GEE analysis, factors associated with past-month illicit PO use included past-year arrest [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.39], opioids other than heroin as drug of choice (AOR: 5.14), experiencing poorer physical health (AOR: 0.98) and a range of other drug use variables.

CONCLUSIONS

We found little evidence of ongoing illicit PO use among those followed up, with illicit PO use linked to polydrug use more broadly. Nonetheless, trends in illicit PO use among PWID should continue to be monitored and harm reduction interventions implemented to reduce the associated public health risks.

Selective disclosure of HIV status in egocentric support networks of people living with HIV/AIDS

The objective of this study was to investigate HIV disclosure activities in social support networks of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs). An egocentric network study was conducted in Nanning, China. A sample of 147 PLWHAs (egos) nominated 922 network members (alters) who would provide egos with social support. All egos disclosed their HIV status to at least one alter in their support networks and 26.5 % disclosed to all alters. Among network alters, 95.7 % of spouse alters, 59.9 % of other family member alters, and 29.7 % of friend alters were aware of egos' HIV status. PLWHA egos were more likely to disclose their HIV status to their spouse and other family members, frequently-contacted alters, and alters who provided more social support. In addition, older egos and unmarried egos were more likely to disclose their HIV status. The findings indicate that network-based HIV intervention programs should take into consideration selective disclosure in social networks.