The Department of Veterans Affairs' NSQIP: the first national, validated, outcome-based, risk-adjusted, and peer-controlled program for the measurement and enhancement of the quality of surgical care. National VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program

Risk-adjusted Outcomes and Perioperative Care

Risk-adjusted patient outcomes are developing as an accurate measure of adequacy of perioperative care. The National Surgery Quality Improvement Program has become the standard tool for assessment of risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity in surgical patients in the United States.

Present-at-admission diagnoses improve mortality risk adjustment and allow more accurate assessment of the relationship between volume of lung cancer operations and mortality risk

BACKGROUND

Mortality risk adjustment is a key component of studies that examine the statistical relationship between hospital lung cancer operation volume and in-hospital mortality. Previous studies of this relationship have used different methods of adjusting for factors that influence mortality risk, but none have adjusted for differences in comorbid disease using only diagnoses identified as present-at-admission.

METHODS

This study uses adjustments for conditions identified as present-at-admission to examine the statistical relationship between the volume of lung cancer operations and mortality among 14,456 California hospital patients, and compares these results to other methods of risk adjustment similar to those used in previous studies.

RESULTS

Mortality risk adjustment using present-at-admission diagnoses yielded better discrimination and explained more of the variability in observed deaths. Large increases in hospital procedure volume were associated with much smaller decreases in mortality risk than those estimated using comparable risk-adjustment models.

CONCLUSIONS

Present-at-admission diagnoses can be used to improve mortality risk adjustment and may allow a more accurate assessment of the relationship between procedure volume and mortality risk.

Predictors of wound infection in ventral hernia repair

BACKGROUND

Postoperative wound infection is a significant risk factor for recurrence after ventral hernia repair (VHR). The current study examines patient- and procedure-specific variables associated with wound infection.

METHODS

A cohort of subjects undergoing VHR from 13 regional Veterans Health Administration (VHA) sites was identified. Patient-specific risk variables were obtained from National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data. Operative variables were obtained from physician-abstracted operative notes. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to model predictors of postoperative wound infection.

RESULTS

A total of 1505 VHR cases were used for analysis; wound infection occurred in 5% (n = 74). Best-fit logistic regression models demonstrated that steroid use, smoking, prolonged operative time, and use of absorbable mesh, acting as a surrogate marker for a more complex procedure, were significant independent predictors of wound infection.

CONCLUSION

Permanent mesh placement was not associated with postoperative wound infection. Smoking was the only modifiable risk factor and preoperative smoking cessation may improve surgical outcomes in VHR.

The role of the Veterans Affairs Medical Centers in patient care, surgical education, research and faculty development

Veterans Administration (VA) medical centers have had a long history of providing medical care to those who have served their country. Over time, the VA has evolved into a facility that has had a major role in graduate medical education. In surgery, this had provided experience in the medical and surgical management of complex surgical disease involving the head and neck, chest, and gastrointestinal tract, and in the fields of surgical oncology, peripheral vascular disease, and the subspecialties of urology, orthopedics, and neurosurgery. The VA provides a venue for the attending physician and resident to work in concert to allow the resident to shoulder increasing accountability in decision-making and delivery of care in the outpatient arena, the operating room, and the intensive care unit. Medical students assigned to a VA hospital are afforded a great opportunity to be exposed to preoperative planning, discussions leading to informed consent for surgery, the actual operation, and postoperative care. Numerous opportunities at the VA are available for novice and experienced medical faculty members to develop and/or enhance skills and abilities in patient care, medical education, and research. In addition, the VA offers unique opportunities for academic physicians and other healthcare professionals to administer its many programs, thereby developing leadership skills and experience in the process. The VA is uniquely situated to design and conduct multicenter clinical trials. The most important aspect of this is the infrastructure provided by the VA Cooperative Studies Program. Of the four missions of the Department of Veterans Affairs, research and education is essential to provide quality, state of the art clinical care to the veteran. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) is an example of how outcomes based research can favorably impact on patient outcome. Looking across the horizon of information solutions available to surgeons, the options are limited. This is not the case for the Department of Veterans Affairs. With the congressionally mandated charge for the VA to compare its quality to private clinicians, the advent of the "Surgery Package" became possible. The VA will continue its leadership position in the healthcare arena if it can successfully address the challenges facing it.

Evolution of trends in risk management

In the past, the detection and response to adverse clinical events were viewed as an inherent part of professionalism; and, if perceived problems were not sorted out at that level, the ultimate expression of dissatisfaction was litigation. There are now demands for the adoption of more transparent and effective processes for risk management. Reviews of surgical practice have highlighted the presence of unacceptable levels of avoidable adverse events. This is being resolved in two ways. First, attention is being directed to the extent that training and experience have on outcomes after surgery, and both appear to be important. Second, a greater appreciation of human factors engineering has promoted a greater involvement of surgeons in processes involving teamwork and non-technical skills. The community wants surgeons who are competent and health-care systems that minimize risk. In recent times attention has been focused on the turmoil associated with change; but, when events are viewed over a period of several decades, there has been considerable progress towards these ideals. Further advancement would be aided by removing the adversarial nature of malpractice systems that have failed to maintain standards.

Identifying risk factors for potentially avoidable complications following radical cystectomy

PURPOSE

Morbidity after radical cystectomy is common and associated with increased health care resource use. Accurate characterization of complications after cystectomy, associated patient specific risk factors, and perioperative processes of care are essential to directing changes in perioperative management that will reduce morbidity and improve the quality of patient care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) is a prospective quality management initiative of 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers nationwide. The NSQIP collects clinical information, intraoperative data and outcomes on a wide variety of surgical procedures from multiple surgical disciplines. Since 1991, 2,538 radical cystectomy procedures have been captured by the NSQIP. Modeling using logistic regression was performed to identify patient specific risk factors and perioperative process measures associated with postoperative morbidity.

RESULTS

Of the 2,538 subjects at least 1 postoperative complication developed in 774 (30.5%). The most frequent complication was ileus (10%). Several factors were associated with the development of a complication, including age, dependent functional status, preoperative dyspnea, preoperative acute renal failure, chronic steroid use, preoperative alcohol consumption, American Society of Anesthesiology score, use of general anesthetic, operative time, intraoperative blood requirement and surgeon level of training.

CONCLUSIONS

Morbidity remains high after cystectomy with 30.5% of subjects experiencing at least 1 complication. Measurable patient specific risk factors and perioperative processes associated with postoperative morbidity following cystectomy are now delineated which allows for improved risk stratification, patient counseling, and the development of novel processes that may incrementally reduce risk and improve outcomes.

Racial/ethnic differences in surgical outcomes in veterans following knee or hip arthroplasty

OBJECTIVE

The utilization of joint arthroplasty for knee or hip osteoarthritis varies markedly by patient race/ethnicity. Because of concerns about surgical risk, black patients are less willing to consider this treatment. There are few published race/ethnicity-specific data on joint arthroplasty outcomes. The present study was undertaken to examine racial/ethnic differences in mortality and morbidity following elective knee or hip arthroplasty.

METHODS

Using information from the Veterans Administration National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, data on 12,108 patients who underwent knee arthroplasty and 6,703 patients who underwent hip arthroplasty over a 5-year period were analyzed. Racial/ethnic differences were determined using prospectively collected data on patient characteristics, procedures, and short-term outcomes. The main outcome measures were risk-adjusted 30-day mortality and complication rates.

RESULTS

Adjusted rates of both non-infection-related and infection-related complications after knee arthroplasty were higher among black patients compared with white patients (relative risk [RR] 1.50, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.08-2.10 and RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06-1.90, respectively). Hispanic patients had a significantly higher risk of infection-related complications after knee arthroplasty (RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.08-2.49) relative to otherwise similar white patients. Race/ethnicity was not significantly associated with the risk of non-infection-related complications (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.68-1.38 in blacks; RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.60-2.30 in Hispanics) or infection-related complications (RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.91-1.78 in blacks; RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.63-2.36 in Hispanics) after hip arthroplasty. The overall 30-day mortality was 0.6% following knee arthroplasty and 0.7% following hip arthroplasty, with no significant differences by race/ethnicity observed for either procedure.

CONCLUSION

Although absolute risks of complication are low, our findings indicate that, after adjustment, black patients have significantly higher rates of infection-related and non-infection-related complications following knee arthroplasty, compared with white patients. In addition, adjusted rates of infection-related complications after knee arthroplasty are higher in Hispanic patients than in white patients. Such differences between ethnic groups are not seen following hip arthroplasty. These groups do not appear to differ significantly in terms of post-arthroplasty mortality rates.

The impact of provider volume on outcomes from urological cancer therapy

PURPOSE

Growing evidence suggests an association between higher hospital and surgeon volumes, and better outcomes after high risk surgical procedures. We reviewed the literature on volume and outcomes, specifically in urological cancer therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched the literature from 1966 to 2004 using MEDLINE with the keywords outcomes, urology, neoplasms, volume, hospital volume, surgeon volume, prostatectomy, cystectomy, nephrectomy, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, kidney cancer and testis cancer. Relevant articles were reviewed and results were compared for each urological cancer.

RESULTS

Several studies demonstrated that higher hospital volume is associated with better outcomes for all urological cancer surgeries. We found that long-term morbidity associated with radical prostatectomy is significantly associated with individual surgeon volume. There were variations in outcome even among high volume surgeons, suggesting that surgical technique can independently impact outcome. Hospitals with a high volume of cystectomies and nephrectomies had decreased overall mortality rates compared with low volume hospitals. Patients undergoing retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for metastatic germ cell tumor had statistically significantly improved survival when treated at larger oncology centers.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence that high volume hospitals have better outcomes is increasing for urological cancer surgeries. Whether volume affects quality or better clinicians and services attract more patients can be debated. Centralizing health care will have major health policy implications, ie high volume hospitals may be overwhelmed and low volume hospitals may be at a disadvantage. An alternative would be to attempt to improve outcomes at low volume hospitals by identifying drivers of high quality care at high volume hospitals and transferring some of these characteristics.

The Case Against Volume as a Measure of Quality of Surgical Care

Healthcare purchasers, represented by the Leapfrog Group, have attempted to set standards for "quality" of surgical care that include a minimum volume for each of five major surgical procedures, with the assumption that higher volumes in surgery bring better outcomes. The VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) is a validated, outcome-based program that prospectively collects clinical data on all major surgical operations in the VA, and builds validated risk-adjustment models that generate, for each hospital and each surgical specialty within a hospital, risk-adjusted outcomes expressed as O/E (observed to expected) ratios for 30-day mortality and morbidity. The O/E ratio has been validated as a reliable comparative measure of the quality of surgical care. Unlike retrospective studies that are based on administrative databases, NSQIP studies have failed to demonstrate a direct relationship between volume and risk-adjusted outcomes of surgery across various specialties. These studies have emphasized that the quality of systems of care was more important than volume in determining the overall quality of surgical care at an institution. High-volume hospitals could still deliver poor care in as much as low-volume hospitals could deliver good care. NSQIP studies have also underscored the major limitations of claims data and administrative databases in the provision of adequate risk-adjustment models that are crucial for volume-outcome studies. Therefore, volume should not be substituted for prospectively monitored and properly risk-adjusted outcomes as a comparative measure of the quality of surgical care.

Evaluating the Patient Safety Indicators

BACKGROUND

The Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs), an administrative data-based tool developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, are increasingly being used to screen for potential in-hospital patient safety problems. Although the Veterans Health Administration (VA) is a national leader in patient safety, accurate information on the epidemiology of patient safety events in the VA is still unavailable.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to: (1) apply the AHRQ PSI software to VA administrative data to identify potential instances of compromised patient safety; (2) determine occurrence rates of PSI events in the VA; and (3) examine the construct validity of the PSIs.

METHODS

We examined differences between observed and risk-adjusted PSI rates in the VA, compared VA and non-VA PSI rates, and investigated the construct validity of the PSIs by examining correlations of the PSIs with other outcomes of VA hospitalizations.

RESULTS

We identified 11,411 PSI events in the VA nationwide in FY'01. Observed PSI rates per 1000 discharges ranged from 0.007 for "transfusion reaction" to 155.5 for "failure to rescue." There were significant, although small, differences between VA and non-VA risk-adjusted PSI rates. Hospitalizations with PSI events had longer lengths of stay, higher mortality, and higher costs than those without PSI events.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the PSIs may be useful as a patient safety screening tool in the VA. Our PSI rates were consistent with the national incidence of low rates; however, differences between VA and non-VA rates suggest that inadequate case-mix adjustment may be contributing to these findings.

Postoperative 30-day mortality following surgical resection for colorectal cancer in veterans: changes in the right direction

Temporal changes in short-term mortality following surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) are unknown. We examined temporal changes in 30-day postoperative mortality, as well as changes in preoperative and postoperative disorders that could contribute to 30-day mortality. Using national Veterans Administration (VA) administrative data, we identified patients with CRC during 1987-2000 who received surgical resection. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between the risk of 30-day mortality and year of surgical resection, while adjusting for several preoperative disorders, disease comorbidity, as well as hospital surgical volume. A total of 32,621 patients were identified. The 30-day postoperative mortality declined from 4.7% during 1987-1988 to 3.9% during 1998-2000. Patients who received surgical resection during 1992-1994, 1995-1997, and 1998-2000 had a 14, 14, and 27% lower adjusted risk of 30-day mortality, respectively, compared with those resected in 1987-1988. Preoperative disorders associated with increased mortality included chronic pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hemiplegia/paraplegia, moderate/severe liver disease, and renal disease. Significant declines were observed in several postoperative disorders including anesthesia complications and thromboembolism. An improvement in 30-day postoperative mortality following surgical resection for CRC was observed. Declining preoperative and postoperative disorders, as well as improvements in surgical care, could partly explain these findings.

A Process for Measuring the Quality of Cancer Care: The Quality Oncology Practice Initiative

Purpose

The Quality Oncology Practice Initiative (QOPI) is a practice-based system of quality self-assessment sponsored by the participants and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). The process of quality evaluation, development of the pilot questionnaire, and preliminary results are reported.

Methods

Physicians from seven oncology groups developed medical record abstraction measures based on practice guidelines and consensus-supported indicators of quality care. Each practice completed two rounds of records review and received practice and aggregate results. Mean frequencies of responses for each indicator were compared among practices.

Results

Participants universally, if informally, find QOPI helpful, and results show statistically significant variation among practices for several indicators, including assessing pain in patients close to death, documentation of informed consent for chemotherapy, and concordance with granulocytic and erythroid growth factor administration guidelines. Measures with universally high concordance include the use of serotonin antagonist antiemetics according to the ASCO guideline; the presence of a pathology report in the record; the use of chemotherapy flow sheets; and adherence to standard chemotherapy recommendations for patients with certain stages of breast, colon, and rectal cancer. Concordance with quality indicators significantly changed between survey rounds for several measures.

Conclusion

Pilot results indicate that the QOPI process provides a rapid and objective measurement of practice quality that allows comparisons among practices and over time. It also provides a mechanism for measuring concordance with published guidelines. Most importantly, it provides a tool for practice self-examination that can promote excellence in cancer care.

Determinants of long-term survival after major surgery and the adverse effect of postoperative complications

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify the determinants of 30-day postoperative mortality and long-term survival after major surgery as exemplified by 8 common operations.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database contains pre-, intra-, and 30-day postoperative data, prospectively collected in a standardized fashion by a dedicated nurse reviewer, on major surgery in the Veterans Administration (VA). The Beneficiary Identification and Records Locator Subsystem (BIRLS) is a VA file that depicts the vital status of U.S. veterans with 87% to 95% accuracy.

METHODS

NSQIP data were merged with BIRLS to determine the vital status of 105,951 patients who underwent 8 types of operations performed between 1991 and 1999, providing an average follow up of 8 years. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of 30-day mortality and long-term survival, respectively.

RESULTS

The most important determinant of decreased postoperative survival was the occurrence, within 30 days postoperatively, of any one of 22 types of complications collected in the NSQIP. Independent of preoperative patient risk, the occurrence of a 30-day complication in the total patient group reduced median patient survival by 69%. The adverse effect of a complication on patient survival was also influenced by the operation type and was sustained even when patients who did not survive for 30 days were excluded from the analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of a 30-day postoperative complication is more important than preoperative patient risk and intraoperative factors in determining the survival after major surgery in the VA. Quality and process improvement in surgery should be directed toward the prevention of postoperative complications.

Using root cause analysis to improve survival in a liver transplant program

BACKGROUND

With the advent of programs such as the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, surgical services will be compared with their peers across the United States. At times, many programs will experience lower-than-expected outcomes. During July 1, 1998, to June 30, 2000 our 1-year graft (76.86%, P = 0.23) and patient (80.61%, P = 0.016) survivals after liver transplantation were lower than our expected rates (graft 81.89% and patient 88.3%), according to the U.S. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR).

METHODS

We used aggregate root cause analysis to determine underlying reasons for our patient deaths. Two of our surgeons performed a systematic review of all our center's liver transplant patient deaths from January 1, 1995, to December 31, 2000. Each phase of the transplant process was reviewed.

RESULTS

Of 355 patients receiving their first transplant, there were 90 deaths, with 188 root causes identified. The apportionment according to phase of the transplant process was patient selection, 50%; transplant procedure, 17%; donor selection, 15%; post-transplant care, 8%, and psychosocial issues, 10%. Risk reduction action plans were developed, and several important changes made in our care protocol. In April 2004, SRTR data revealed that for patients transplanted between January 1, 2001 and June 30, 2003, our 1-year liver graft survival of 90.73% (P = 0.018) was significantly higher than the national expected rate of 84.48%. Our 1-year patient survival rate of 92.66% (P = 0.285) was higher than the expected rate of 89.29%.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower-than-expected outcomes can provide an impetus for improving patient care and raising the quality of a surgical service. Aggregate root cause analysis of adverse events is a valuable method for program improvement.

MEASURING THE QUALITY OF CARE FOR LOCALIZED PROSTATE CANCER

PURPOSE

We describe the current status of quality of care measurement for localized prostate cancer and provide a framework for preserving a leadership role for our specialty in this dynamic and controversial field.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Basic methodological principles of quality of care assessment were reviewed. Several factors that suggest the potential for current variation in the quality of care for patients with localized prostate cancer, particularly those receiving active treatment, were then analyzed. Subsequently contemporary publications and investigations that comprise the current foundation of prostate cancer quality of care research were reviewed.

RESULTS

The foundation for much of the emerging research in prostate cancer quality of care assessment is based on the Donabedian structure-process-outcome paradigm. The RAND candidate quality indicators for localized prostate cancer were developed in this framework and they represent the first effort to systematically consider the measurement of quality as it relates to prostate cancer. The feasibility of applying the RAND quality indicators to clinical quality of care assessments has been demonstrated, although further modification and refinement of the indicator set are necessary prior to large-scale, population based implementation of these quality assessment measures. Moreover, future quality of care efforts must make the transition to primarily prospective or concurrent quality assessments, such that measures can be taken to modify the structure and/or process of care at the time of delivery or shortly thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate cancer quality of care assessment represents a burgeoning domain of urological health services research. To date such initiatives have come from within and outside of our specialty. In the future such efforts are likely to expand and they may have a substantial impact on the clinical and administrative aspects of urological practice. As a result, urologists should maintain a leading role in efforts to further define of quality of care as it relates to prostate cancer and radical prostatectomy.

Perioperative beta-blocker therapy and mortality after major noncardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Despite limited evidence from randomized trials, perioperative treatment with beta-blockers is now widely advocated. We assessed the use of perioperative beta-blockers and their association with in-hospital mortality in routine clinical practice.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients 18 years of age or older who underwent major noncardiac surgery in 2000 and 2001 at 329 hospitals throughout the United States. We used propensity-score matching to adjust for differences between patients who received perioperative beta-blockers and those who did not receive such therapy and compared in-hospital mortality using multivariable logistic modeling.

RESULTS

Of 782,969 patients, 663,635 (85 percent) had no recorded contraindications to beta-blockers, 122,338 of whom (18 percent) received such treatment during the first two hospital days, including 14 percent of patients with a Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score of 0 and 44 percent with a score of 4 or higher. The relationship between perioperative beta-blocker treatment and the risk of death varied directly with cardiac risk; among the 580,665 patients with an RCRI score of 0 or 1, treatment was associated with no benefit and possible harm, whereas among the patients with an RCRI score of 2, 3, or 4 or more, the adjusted odds ratios for death in the hospital were 0.88 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.80 to 0.98), 0.71 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.63 to 0.80), and 0.58 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.67), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative beta-blocker therapy is associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital death among high-risk, but not low-risk, patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. Patient safety may be enhanced by increasing the use of beta-blockers in high-risk patients.

Does resident hours reduction have an impact on surgical outcomes?

BACKGROUND

We assessed the impact of restricting surgical resident work hours as required by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), on postoperative outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The divisions of General and Vascular Surgery at the Michael E. DeBakey Houston Veteran Affairs Medical Center implemented a limited work hours schedule effective October 1, 2002. We compared the rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality before and after the new schedule. Clinical data were collected by the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) for the periods of October 1, 2001 to September 30, 2002 (preintervention), and October 1, 2002 to September 30, 2003 (postintervention). We assessed risk-adjusted observed to expected (O/E) ratios of mortality and prespecified postoperative morbidity for each study period.

RESULTS

In the preintervention period, there were 405 general surgery and 202 vascular surgery cases as compared to 382 and 208 cases, respectively in the postintervention period. There were no significant differences in mortality O/E ratios between the pre- and postintervention periods (0.63 versus 0.60 in general surgery; 0.78 versus 0.81 in vascular surgery; P = 0.90 and 0.94, respectively) or in morbidity O/E ratios (1.06 versus 1.27 in general surgery; 1.47 versus 1.50 in vascular surgery; P = 0.20 and 0.90, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The restricted resident work hour schedule in general and vascular surgery in our facility did not significantly affect postoperative outcomes.

Le taux brut de mortalité postopératoire est-il un critère pertinent d'efficience d'une équipe chirurgicale ? Étude prospective des suites opératoires de 11 756 patients

AIM

Evaluation of the crude postoperative mortality rate as a relevant criterion of the efficiency of a surgical team.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

[corrected] We studied prospectively the postoperative course of 11,756 consecutive patients who underwent a general surgery procedure between January 1(st) 1987 and December 31 2002.

RESULTS

Seventy-three of patients died (0.60 percent). The median age at the time of death was 77 years old. None of the 5046 patients under 40 years old died. The operations were emergent in 3,265 patients (28 percent). The mortality rate of the 3,952 digestive surgery patients was 1.00 percent (40/3,952 patients). Among them, the mortality rate increased to 3.56 percent (17/478 patients) in case of an emergency procedure excluding procedures for non-suppurative appendicitis. Although only 8 percent of the patients were operated for a cancer (968/11,756 patients), they accounted for 49 percent of the postoperative deaths. In this cohort, the crude mortality rate varied by twice as much as were taken in account (73 deaths) or not (34 deaths) the palliative procedures in terminal phase patients, and the last-chance procedures in patients in imminent-death condition. Six hundred and twenty patients (5.3 percent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, surgical in 166 patients, and parietal in 258 patients.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that a long-term rigorous self-assessment is feasible. It confirms that the crude mortality rate is not a relevant criterion to evaluate the efficiency of a surgical team, suggests that an "avoided death" concept is more representative of medical team work and more rewarding for them and allows us to propose an index taking in account the rate of postoperative complications not followed by death.

The impact of operative complexity on patient risk factors

OBJECTIVE

The VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) formula for risk factors was applied to the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UTHSCSA)/University Hospital (UH) database. Its applicability to a civilian organization was established. Logistic regression analysis of the UH database revealed that operative complexity was significantly related to mortality only at high complexity levels. Patient risk factors were the major determinants of operative mortality for most civilian surgical cases.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Since 1994, the NSQIP has collected preoperative risk factors, intraoperative data, 30-day morbidity, and mortality within the VA health system. The VA formula to predict 30-day postoperative mortality was applied to our UH patients (N = 8593). The c-index of .907, a statistical measure of accuracy, compared favorably to the VA patient c-index of .89. The UH database did not include a surrogate for operative complexity. We were elated by the predictive accuracy but had concern that operative complexity needed further evaluation.

METHODS

Operative complexity was ascribed to each of the 8593 UH cases, and logistic regression analyses were compared with and without operative complexity. Operative complexity was graded on a scale of 1 to 5; 5 was the most complex.

RESULTS

Without operative complexity, a c-index was .915. With operative complexity: an even higher c-index of .941 was reached. The large volume of level 2-3 operative cases obscured to a degree the effect of operative difficulty on mortality.

CONCLUSION

Operative complexity played a major role in risk estimation, but only at the extreme. The dominance of cases of midlevel complexity masked the effect of higher complexity cases on mortality. In any individual case, operative complexity must be added to estimate operative mortality accurately. Patient risk factors alone accounted for operative mortality for operations less than level 4 (95% of patients).

Surgical Treatment for Prostate Cancer in Patients With Prior Spinal Cord Injury

BACKGROUND

Limited published information is available concerning the clinical course of spinal cord-injured (SCI) patients who develop prostate carcinoma and subsequently undergo radical surgery. We hypothesized that the choice of surgical treatment and the technical conduct of radical surgery would be influenced by sequelae of SCI and that poorer outcomes would result in this population as compared with neurally intact patients.

METHODS

A nationwide study was conducted of all SCI veterans receiving care at Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Centers who subsequently developed prostate carcinoma and underwent curative-intent radical operations between 1993 and 2002. Only patients with complete SCI due to trauma who met American Spinal Injury Association type A criteria were analyzed. The unpaired t-test was used to analyze data.

RESULTS

Of 16,878 patients who underwent radical operations for prostate cancer, 55 had preexisting diagnostic codes for SCI. After record review, 14 met all inclusion criteria. The mean age was 57 years. All were asymptomatic with clinically organ-confined disease diagnosed by an increased prostate-specific antigen level or abnormal digital rectal examination results. Comorbid conditions were present in 9 (69%) of 13 patients. Twelve underwent radical prostatectomy, and two underwent cystoprostatectomy. There were no operative deaths, but 8 (57%) of 14 had complications (P < .05). The mean length of stay (16 days) was significantly longer (P < .05) than in neurally intact patients.

CONCLUSIONS

SCI patients tended to be younger than neurally intact patients with prostate cancer, and the rate of cystoprostatectomy was high. The complication rate was significantly higher and the hospital stay was significantly longer than in neurally intact patients.

Surgical Morbidity and Mortality among American Indian and Alaska Native Veterans: A Comparative Analysis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined surgical risk factors and outcomes in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). My colleagues and I sought to determine if prevalence of preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality differed between male AI/AN and Caucasian surgical patients, and to determine if AI/ANs had an increased risk of surgical morbidity or mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

We obtained data from the Veterans Affairs National Surgical Quality Improvement Program on major, noncardiac, surgical procedures performed between 1991 and 2002 for all AI/AN men (n = 2,155) and a random sample of Caucasian men (n = 2,264), matched by facility. Chi-square and t-test analyses were used to assess differences in preoperative risk factors between the two groups. Logistic regression was used to determine whether AI/AN race was independently associated with 30-day morbidity (defined as 1 or more of 21 postoperative complications) or 30-day all cause mortality after adjustment for major risk factors.

RESULTS

Prevalence of major preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality often differed between the groups. Compared with Caucasians, AI/AN race did not predict morbidity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.75-1.13), but AI/ANs were at higher risk for 30-day all cause postoperative mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.04-2.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results add postoperative mortality to health disparities experienced by AI/ANs. Future research should be conducted to identify other factors that contribute to this disparity.

Variation in outcomes in Veterans Affairs intensive care units with a computerized severity measure*

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the variability in risk-adjusted mortality and length of stay of Veterans Affairs intensive care units using a computer-based severity of illness measure.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A stratified random sample of 34 intensive care units in 17 Veterans Affairs hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

A consecutive sample of 29,377 first intensive care unit admissions from February 1996 through July 1997.

INTERVENTIONS

Standardized mortality ratio (observed/expected deaths) and observed minus expected length of stay (OMELOS) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated for each unit using a hierarchical logistic (standardized mortality ratio) or linear (OMELOS) regression model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. We adjusted for patient characteristics including age, admission diagnosis, comorbid disease, physiology at admission (from laboratory data), and transfer status.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Mortality across the intensive care units for the 12,088 surgical and 17,289 medical cases averaged 11% (range, 2-30%). Length of stay in the intensive care units averaged 4.0 days (range, mean unit length of stay 3.0-5.9). Standardized mortality ratio of the intensive care units varied from 0.62 to 1.27; the standardized mortality ratio and 95% confidence interval were <1 for four intensive care units and >1.0 for seven intensive care units. OMELOS of the intensive care units ranged from -0.89 to 1.34 days. In a random slope hierarchical model, variation in standardized mortality ratio among intensive care units was similar across the range of severity, whereas variation in length of stay increased with severity. Standardized mortality ratio was not associated with OMELOS (Pearson's r = .13).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified intensive care units whose indicators for mortality and length of stay differ substantially using a conservative statistical approach with a severity adjustment model based on data available in computerized clinical databases. Computerized risk adjustment employing routinely available data may facilitate research on the utility of intensive care unit profiling and analysis of natural experiments to understand process and outcome links and quality efforts.

Conventional models overestimate the statistical significance of volume–outcome associations, compared with multilevel models

OBJECTIVE

To compare the use of conventional statistical models with multilevel regression models in volume-outcome analyses of surgical procedures in an empirical case study.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Using conventional regression models and multilevel regression models, we estimated the effect of hospital volume and surgeon volume on 30-day mortality and length of postoperative hospital stay in persons who had an esophagectomy, pancreaticoduodenectomy, or major lung resection for cancer in Ontario, Canada, from 1994 to 1999.

RESULTS

The point estimates of volume-outcome associations were similar using either method; however, the 95% confidence intervals estimated by multilevel models were wider than those estimated by conventional models. A significant association between volume and mortality was identified in 2 of 18 (11%) comparisons using conventional analysis but in none of the 18 (0%) comparisons using multilevel analysis, and between volume and length of stay in 15 of 18 (83%) comparisons using conventional analysis and in 1 of 18 (6%) comparisons using multilevel analysis.

CONCLUSION

Conventional and multilevel statistical models can yield substantially different results in the analysis of volume-outcome associations for surgical procedures.

Surgical Outcomes for Patients Aged 80 and Older: Morbidity and Mortality from Major Noncardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVES

To gather information about surgical outcomes for patients in their 80s and 90s.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Veterans Affairs Medical Centers.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients (26,648 aged >/=80; 568,263 aged <80) enrolled in the Veterans Affairs National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) who had noncardiac surgery between 1991 and 1999.

METHODS

Data were collected prospectively from medical records and healthcare providers. Detailed information was collected about patients' preoperative status, intraoperative experience, and postoperative outcomes. Postoperative outcomes were survival status at 30 days (deaths from any cause occurring during hospitalization and after hospital discharge were captured) and the occurrence of 21 selected surgical complications within 30 days postoperatively: wound complications (3 types), respiratory complications (4), urinary tract complications (3), nervous system complications (3), cardiac complications (3), and other complications (5).

MEASUREMENTS

Mortality and the occurrence of 21 surgical complications within 30 days of surgery.

RESULTS

Thirty-day all-cause mortality rates varied widely across operations and were higher for patients aged 80 and older than for younger patients (8% vs 3%, P<.001). Mortality rates for those aged 80 and older were less than 2% for many commonly performed operations (e.g., transurethral prostatectomy, hernia repair, knee replacement, carotid endarterectomy). Of patients aged 80 and older, 20% had one or more postoperative complications, and patients who suffered complications had higher 30-day mortality than those who did not (26% vs 4%, P<.001). For 11 of the 21 complications, mortality for patients aged 80 and older was greater than 33%. The risk factors for poor outcomes were the same for older and younger patients, and the NSQIP Mortality Risk model performed well on patients aged 80 and older (C statistic=0.83).

CONCLUSION

A substantial minority of patients aged 80 and older died or suffered a complication within 30 days of surgery, but for many operations mortality rates were extremely low. Postoperative complications were associated with high 30-day mortality in patients aged 80 and older.

Mortality After Noncardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND

Hospital profiles are increasingly constructed using risk-adjusted clinical data abstracted from patient records.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to compare hospital profiles based on risk adjusted death within 30 days of surgery from administrative versus clinical data in a national cohort of surgical patients.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study that included 78,546 major noncardiac operations performed between October 1, 1991 and December 31, 1993 in 44 Veterans Affairs hospitals. Administrative data were used to develop and validate multivariable logistic regression models of 30-day postoperative death for all surgery and 4 surgical specialties (general, orthopedic, thoracic, and vascular). Previously developed and validated clinical models were obtained and reproduced for matching operations using data from the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Observed-to-expected 30-day mortality ratios for administrative and clinical data were calculated and compared for each hospital.

RESULTS

In multivariable logistic regression models using administrative data, characteristics such as patient age, race, marital status, admission from a nursing home, interhospital transfer, admission on the weekend, weekend surgery, and risk strata consisting of groups of principal and comorbidity diagnoses were predictive of postoperative mortality (P <0.05). Correlations of the clinical and administrative observed-to-expected ratios were 0.75, 0.83, 0.64, 0.78, and 0.86 for all surgery, general, orthopedic, thoracic, and vascular surgery, respectively. When compared with clinical models, administrative models identified outlier hospitals with sensitivity of 73%, specificity of 89%, positive predictive value of 51%, and negative predictive value of 96%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that risk adjustment of mortality using administrative data may be useful for screening hospitals for potential quality problems.

Increased use of low anterior resection for veterans with rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Two surgical procedures with curative intent are available to patients with rectal cancer: lower anterior resection and abdominoperineal resection; however, lower anterior resection may improve quality of life and functional status.

AIM

To examine temporal changes in after lower anterior resection and abdominoperineal resection between 1989 and 2000. Potential factors associated with the use of lower anterior resection were evaluated.

METHODS

Using national administrative data, we identified patients who received lower anterior resection or abdominoperineal resection. Logistic regression models examined the association between use of lower anterior resection and time period of surgical resection.

RESULTS

A total of 5201 rectal cancer patients underwent resection. The use of lower anterior resection increased from 40.0% (1989-91) to 50.1% (1998-2000) paralleled by a corresponding decline in abdominoperineal resection (60.1 to 49.9%; P < 0.001). Patients who received surgery during 1992-94, 1995-97 and 1998-2000 were 6, 7 and 28% more likely to receive lower anterior resection, when compared with 1989-1991 after adjusting for demographic characteristics, co-morbidity and hospital surgical volume. Older age, lower co-morbidity score and lower hospital surgical volume were predictive of lower anterior resection.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in the use of lower anterior resection for rectal cancer was observed over time. This observed increase in use is not confined to high-volume hospitals.

Complications following surgical intervention for stress urinary incontinence: A national perspective

AIMS

Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) impacts many women. Treatment is primarily surgical. Post-operative morbidity considerably affects individuals and the health care system. Our objective is to describe complications following surgery for SUI and how they affect resource utilization.

METHODS

Utilizing the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (a nationally representative dataset), 147,473 patients who underwent surgery for SUI from 1988 to 2000 were identified by ICD-9 codes. Comorbid conditions/complications were extracted using ICD-9 codes, including complication rates, length of stay (LOS), hospital charges, and discharge status.

RESULTS

Overall complication rate was 13.0% (not equal to sum of complication sub-types, as each woman may have had = 1 complication), with 2.8% bleeding, 1.4% surgical injury, 4.3% urinary/renal, 4.4% infectious, 0.1% wound, 1.1% pulmonary insufficiency, 0.5% myocardial infarction, 0.2% thromboembolic. The "gold standard" surgical technique for SUI, the pubovaginal sling, had the lowest morbidity at 12.5%. Mean LOS increased with morbidity: from 2.9 to 4.1 to 6.1 days for those with 0, 1, and =2 complications respectively (P < 0.001). Similarly, inflation-adjusted hospital charges increased with morbidity: from 7,918 dollars to 9,828 dollars to 15,181 dollars for those with 0, 1, and =2 complications respectively (P < 0.001). The percentage of patients requiring post-discharge subacute or home care increased with morbidity: from 4.4% to 8.4% to 14.3% for those with 0, 1, and =2 complications (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial percentage of women experience complications following surgery for SUI. Post-operative morbidity leads to dramatically increased resource utilization. Prospective studies are needed to identify pre-operative risk factors and intraoperative process measures to optimize the quality of care.

Evidence-based outcome data after hernia surgery: A possible role for the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

Since its inception in 1994, the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) has been used to compare the performance of all Veterans Administration (VA) hospitals offering major surgical procedures. The program's outcome data are used to identify areas of both excellent and poor performance. The data can also be used to focus on specific procedures, especially high frequency operations such as inguinal herniorrhaphy. Following several successful feasibility studies, the NSQIP has been adopted by the American College of Surgeons (ACS) and is being offered nationwide in the non-VA sector. Given the profound decrease in operative mortality and morbidity seen within the VA, it seems realistic to expect similar improvements in global-and procedure specific-surgical outcomes within the non-VA sector.

Evaluating alternative risk-adjustment strategies for surgery

BACKGROUND

Comparison of institutional health care outcomes requires risk adjustment. Risk-adjustment methodology may influence the results of such comparisons.

METHODS

We compared 3 risk-adjustment methodologies used to assess the quality of surgical care. Nurse reviewers abstracted data from a continuous sample of 2,167 surgical patients at 3 academic institutions. One risk adjustor was based on medical record data (National Surgical Quality Improvement Program [NSQIP]) whereas the other 2, the DxCG and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), primarily used International Classification of Disease-9 (ICD-9) codes. Risk-assessment scores from the 3 systems were compared with each other and with mortality.

RESULTS

Substantial disagreement was found in the risk assessment calculated by the 3 methodologies. Although there was a weak association between the CCI and DxCG, neither correlated well with the NSQIP. The NSQIP was best able to predict mortality, followed by the DxCG and CCI.

CONCLUSION

In surgical patients, different risk-adjustment methodologies afford divergent estimates of mortality risk.

Hospital costs associated with surgical complications: A report from the private-sector National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

BACKGROUND

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) has reduced morbidity rates in Veterans Affairs Hospitals. As the NSQIP methods move to private-sector hospitals, funding responsibilities will shift to the medical center. The objective of the current study was to calculate hospital costs associated with postoperative complications, because reducing morbidity may offset the costs of using the NSQIP.

STUDY DESIGN

Patient data were obtained from a single private-sector center involved in the NSQIP from 2001 to 2002 (n=1,008). Cost data were derived from the hospital's internal cost-accounting database (TSI; Transitions Systems Inc). Total hospital costs associated with both minor complications and major complications were calculated. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the cost of each type of complication after adjusting for patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Rates of minor complications (6.3%, 64 events) and major complications (6.6%, 67 events) were similar. Median hospital costs were lowest for patients without complications (4,487 dollars) compared with those with minor (14,094 dollars) and major complications (28,356 dollars) (p<0.001). After adjusting for differences in patient characteristics, major complications were associated with an increase of 11,626 dollars (95% CI, 9,419 dollars to 13,832 dollars; p<0.001). Minor complications were not associated with increased costs in the adjusted analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the substantial costs associated with major postoperative complications, reducing morbidity may provide sufficient cost savings to offset the resources needed to participate in the private-sector expansion of the NSQIP.

Classification of surgical complications: a new proposal with evaluation in a cohort of 6336 patients and results of a survey

OBJECTIVE

Although quality assessment is gaining increasing attention, there is still no consensus on how to define and grade postoperative complications. This shortcoming hampers comparison of outcome data among different centers and therapies and over time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A classification of complications published by one of the authors in 1992 was critically re-evaluated and modified to increase its accuracy and its acceptability in the surgical community. Modifications mainly focused on the manner of reporting life-threatening and permanently disabling complications. The new grading system still mostly relies on the therapy used to treat the complication. The classification was tested in a cohort of 6336 patients who underwent elective general surgery at our institution. The reproducibility and personal judgment of the classification were evaluated through an international survey with 2 questionnaires sent to 10 surgical centers worldwide.

RESULTS

The new ranking system significantly correlated with complexity of surgery (P < 0.0001) as well as with the length of the hospital stay (P < 0.0001). A total of 144 surgeons from 10 different centers around the world and at different levels of training returned the survey. Ninety percent of the case presentations were correctly graded. The classification was considered to be simple (92% of the respondents), reproducible (91%), logical (92%), useful (90%), and comprehensive (89%). The answers of both questionnaires were not dependent on the origin of the reply and the level of training of the surgeons.

CONCLUSIONS

The new complication classification appears reliable and may represent a compelling tool for quality assessment in surgery in all parts of the world.

Classification of surgical complications: a new proposal with evaluation in a cohort of 6336 patients and results of a survey

OBJECTIVE

Although quality assessment is gaining increasing attention, there is still no consensus on how to define and grade postoperative complications. This shortcoming hampers comparison of outcome data among different centers and therapies and over time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A classification of complications published by one of the authors in 1992 was critically re-evaluated and modified to increase its accuracy and its acceptability in the surgical community. Modifications mainly focused on the manner of reporting life-threatening and permanently disabling complications. The new grading system still mostly relies on the therapy used to treat the complication. The classification was tested in a cohort of 6336 patients who underwent elective general surgery at our institution. The reproducibility and personal judgment of the classification were evaluated through an international survey with 2 questionnaires sent to 10 surgical centers worldwide.

RESULTS

The new ranking system significantly correlated with complexity of surgery (P < 0.0001) as well as with the length of the hospital stay (P < 0.0001). A total of 144 surgeons from 10 different centers around the world and at different levels of training returned the survey. Ninety percent of the case presentations were correctly graded. The classification was considered to be simple (92% of the respondents), reproducible (91%), logical (92%), useful (90%), and comprehensive (89%). The answers of both questionnaires were not dependent on the origin of the reply and the level of training of the surgeons.

CONCLUSIONS

The new complication classification appears reliable and may represent a compelling tool for quality assessment in surgery in all parts of the world.

Classification of surgical complications: a new proposal with evaluation in a cohort of 6336 patients and results of a survey

OBJECTIVE

Although quality assessment is gaining increasing attention, there is still no consensus on how to define and grade postoperative complications. This shortcoming hampers comparison of outcome data among different centers and therapies and over time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A classification of complications published by one of the authors in 1992 was critically re-evaluated and modified to increase its accuracy and its acceptability in the surgical community. Modifications mainly focused on the manner of reporting life-threatening and permanently disabling complications. The new grading system still mostly relies on the therapy used to treat the complication. The classification was tested in a cohort of 6336 patients who underwent elective general surgery at our institution. The reproducibility and personal judgment of the classification were evaluated through an international survey with 2 questionnaires sent to 10 surgical centers worldwide.

RESULTS

The new ranking system significantly correlated with complexity of surgery (P < 0.0001) as well as with the length of the hospital stay (P < 0.0001). A total of 144 surgeons from 10 different centers around the world and at different levels of training returned the survey. Ninety percent of the case presentations were correctly graded. The classification was considered to be simple (92% of the respondents), reproducible (91%), logical (92%), useful (90%), and comprehensive (89%). The answers of both questionnaires were not dependent on the origin of the reply and the level of training of the surgeons.

CONCLUSIONS

The new complication classification appears reliable and may represent a compelling tool for quality assessment in surgery in all parts of the world.

Classification of surgical complications: a new proposal with evaluation in a cohort of 6336 patients and results of a survey

OBJECTIVE

Although quality assessment is gaining increasing attention, there is still no consensus on how to define and grade postoperative complications. This shortcoming hampers comparison of outcome data among different centers and therapies and over time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A classification of complications published by one of the authors in 1992 was critically re-evaluated and modified to increase its accuracy and its acceptability in the surgical community. Modifications mainly focused on the manner of reporting life-threatening and permanently disabling complications. The new grading system still mostly relies on the therapy used to treat the complication. The classification was tested in a cohort of 6336 patients who underwent elective general surgery at our institution. The reproducibility and personal judgment of the classification were evaluated through an international survey with 2 questionnaires sent to 10 surgical centers worldwide.

RESULTS

The new ranking system significantly correlated with complexity of surgery (P < 0.0001) as well as with the length of the hospital stay (P < 0.0001). A total of 144 surgeons from 10 different centers around the world and at different levels of training returned the survey. Ninety percent of the case presentations were correctly graded. The classification was considered to be simple (92% of the respondents), reproducible (91%), logical (92%), useful (90%), and comprehensive (89%). The answers of both questionnaires were not dependent on the origin of the reply and the level of training of the surgeons.

CONCLUSIONS

The new complication classification appears reliable and may represent a compelling tool for quality assessment in surgery in all parts of the world.

Evaluating operative risk in colorectal cancer surgery: ASA and POSSUM-based predictive models

OBJECTIVE

To review two predictive models, based on the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) and the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)-used for estimating postoperative mortality in patients, undergoing surgery for colorectal disease, in the UK.

METHODS

Data was derived from three multicentre, UK-based studies involving a total of 16,006 patients with malignant or non-malignant bowel pathologies. Data sources were: The Colorectal-POSSUM (CR-POSSUM) Study population, comprising 6883 patients undergoing colorectal surgery in 15 UK hospitals between 1993 and 2001; The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Database, encompassing 8077 newly diagnosed CRC patients, undergoing surgical resections in 79 hospitals, between April 2000 and March 2002; The ACPGBI Malignant Bowel Obstruction (MBO) Study, encompassing 1046 patients with MBO in 148 hospitals, treated between April 1998 and March 1999. Multifactorial logistic regression analyses were used to adjust for case-mix, identify risk factors for in-hospital/30-day operative mortality and to accommodate the variability of outcomes between hospitals.

RESULTS

In the ACPGBI CRC study, 7374 patients had surgery, 6622(89.8%) a major bowel resection and 1465(19.9%) emergency surgery. Nine hundred and eighty-nine (94.6%) patients with MBO had surgery and 854(86.3%) underwent bowel resection. In the CR-POSSUM study, of the 6790(98.6%) patients undergoing surgery, 3451(50.8%) had a major colorectal resection, including 2107(31.0%) as an emergency. The operative mortality was 7.5% for the ACPGBI CRC study, 15.7% for patients with MBO and 5.7% for patients in the CR-POSSUM study. When tested, the predictive models showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 77.5% for the ACPGBI CRC, 80.1% for the MBO and 89.8% for the CR-POSSUM.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction of postoperative death can be made by the clinician using simple, numerical, tables derived from the ACPGBI CRC, MBO and CR-POSSUM models. The models can be used in everyday practice for pre-operative counselling of patients and their carers, as a part of the process of informed consent. They may also be used to compare the outcomes between multidisciplinary CRC teams.