Ambulatory care sensitive conditions: terminology and disease coding need to be more specific to aid policy makers and clinicians

Performance improvement of machine learning techniques predicting the association of exacerbation of peak expiratory flow ratio with short term exposure level to indoor air quality using adult asthmatics clustered data

Large-scale data sources, remote sensing technologies, and superior computing power have tremendously benefitted to environmental health study. Recently, various machine-learning algorithms were introduced to provide mechanistic insights about the heterogeneity of clustered data pertaining to the symptoms of each asthma patient and potential environmental risk factors. However, there is limited information on the performance of these machine learning tools. In this study, we compared the performance of ten machine-learning techniques. Using an advanced method of imbalanced sampling (IS), we improved the performance of nine conventional machine learning techniques predicting the association between exposure level to indoor air quality and change in patients’ peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR). We then proposed a deep learning method of transfer learning (TL) for further improvement in prediction accuracy. Our selected final prediction techniques (TL1_IS or TL2-IS) achieved a balanced accuracy median (interquartile range) of 66(56~76) % for TL1_IS and 68(63~78) % for TL2_IS. Precision levels for TL1_IS and TL2_IS were 68(62~72) % and 66(62~69) % while sensitivity levels were 58(50~67) % and 59(51~80) % from 25 patients which were approximately 1.08 (accuracy, precision) to 1.28 (sensitivity) times increased in terms of performance outcomes, compared to NN_IS. Our results indicate that the transfer machine learning technique with imbalanced sampling is a powerful tool to predict the change in PEFR due to exposure to indoor air including the concentration of particulate matter of 2.5 μm and carbon dioxide. This modeling technique is even applicable with small-sized or imbalanced dataset, which represents a personalized, real-world setting.

Pilot cluster randomised trial of an evidence-based intervention to reduce avoidable hospital admissions in nursing home residents (Better Health in Residents of Care Homes with Nursing-BHiRCH-NH Study)

OBJECTIVES

To pilot a complex intervention to support healthcare and improve early detection and treatment for common health conditions experienced by nursing home (NH) residents.

DESIGN

Pilot cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

14 NHs (7 intervention, 7 control) in London and West Yorkshire.

PARTICIPANTS

NH residents, their family carers and staff.

INTERVENTION

Complex intervention to support healthcare and improve early detection and treatment of urinary tract and respiratory infections, chronic heart failure and dehydration, comprising: (1) 'Stop and Watch (S&W)' early warning tool for changes in physical health, (2) condition-specific care pathway and (3) Situation, Background, Assessment and Recommendation tool to enhance communication with primary care. Implementation was supported by Practice Development Champions, a Practice Development Support Group and regular telephone coaching with external facilitators.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on NH (quality ratings, size, ownership), residents, family carers and staff demographics during the month prior to intervention and subsequently, numbers of admissions, accident and emergency visits, and unscheduled general practitioner visits monthly for 6 months during intervention. We collected data on how the intervention was used, healthcare resource use and quality of life data for economic evaluation. We assessed recruitment and retention, and whether a full trial was warranted.

RESULTS

We recruited 14 NHs, 148 staff, 95 family carers and 245 residents. We retained the majority of participants recruited (95%). 15% of residents had an unplanned hospital admission for one of the four study conditions. We were able to collect sufficient questionnaire data (all over 96% complete). No NH implemented intervention tools as planned. Only 16 S&W forms and 8 care pathways were completed. There was no evidence of harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Recruitment, retention and data collection processes were effective but the intervention not implemented. A full trial is not warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN74109734 (https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN74109734). ORIGINAL PROTOCOL: BMJ Open. 2019;9(5):e026510. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026510.

Improved strategies to counter the COVID-19 pandemic: Lockdowns vs. primary and community healthcare

COVID-19 pandemic mitigation strategies are mainly based on social distancing measures and healthcare system reinforcement. However, many countries in Europe and elsewhere implemented strict, horizontal lockdowns because of extensive viral spread in the community which challenges the capacity of the healthcare systems. However, strict lockdowns have various untintended adverse social, economic and health effects, which have yet to be fully elucidated, and have not been considered in models examining the effects of various mitigation measures. Unlike commonly suggested, the dilemma is not about health vs wealth because the economic devastation of long-lasting lockdowns will definitely have adverse health effects in the population. Furthermore, they cannot provide a lasting solution in pandemic containment, potentially resulting in a vicious cycle of consecutive lockdowns with in-between breaks. Hospital preparedness has been the main strategy used by governments. However, a major characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic is the rapid viral transmission in populations with no immunity. Thus, even the best hospital system could not cope with the demand. Primary, community and home care are the only viable strategies that could achieve the goal of pandemic mitigation. We present the case example of Greece, a country which followed a strategy focused on hospital preparedness but failed to reinforce primary and community care. This, along with strategic mistakes in epidemiological surveillance, resulted in Greece implementing a second strict, horizontal lockdown and having one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in Europe during the second wave. We provide recommendations for measures that will reinstate primary and community care at the forefront in managing the current public health crisis by protecting hospitals from unnecessary admissions, providing primary and secondary prevention services in relation to COVID-19 and maintaining population health through treatment of non-COVID-19 conditions. This, together with more selective social distancing measures (instead of horizontal lockdowns), represents the only viable and realistic long-term strategy for COVID-19 pandemic mitigation.

Impact of Brazil's More Doctors Program on hospitalizations for primary care sensitive cardiovascular conditions

Globally, cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of disease burden and death. Timely and appropriate provision of primary care may lead to sizeable reductions in hospitalizations for a range of chronic and acute health conditions. In this paper, we study the impact of Brazil's More Doctors Program (MDP) on hospitalizations due to cerebrovascular disease and hypertension. We exploit the geographic variation in the uptake of the MPD and combine coarsened exact matching and difference-in-difference methods to construct valid counterfactual estimates. We use data from the Hospital Information System in Unified Health System, the MDP administrative records, the Brazilian Regulatory Agency, the Ministry of Health, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, covering the years from 2009 to 2017. Our analysis resulted in estimated coefficients of -1.47 (95%CI: -4.04,1.10) for hospitalizations for cerebrovascular disease and -1.20 (95%CI: -5.50,3.11) for hypertension, suggesting an inverse relationship between the MDP and hospitalizations. For cerebrovascular disease, the estimated MDP coefficient was -0.50 (95%CI: -2.94,1.95) in the year of program introduction, -5.21 (95%CI: -9.43,-0.99) and -8.21 (95%CI: -13.68,-2.75) in its third and fourth year of implementation, respectively. Our results further suggest that the beneficial impact of MDP on hospitalizations due to cerebrovascular disease became discernable in urban municipalities starting from the fourth year of implementation. We found no evidence that the MDP led to reductions in hospitalizations due to hypertension. Our results highlight that increased investment in resources devoted to primary care led to improvements in hospitalizations for selected cardiovascular conditions. However, it took time for the beneficial effects of the MDP to become discernable and the Program did not guarantee declines in hospitalizations for all cardiovascular conditions, suggesting that further improvements may be needed to enhance the beneficial impact of the MDP on the level and distribution of population health in Brazil.

Preventable emergency admissions of older adults: an observational mixed-method study of rates, associative factors and underlying causes in two Dutch hospitals

OBJECTIVE

Older adults are hospitalised from the emergency department (ED) without potentially needing hospital care. Knowledge about rates, associative factors and causes of these preventable emergency admissions (PEAs) is limited. This study aimed to determine the rates, associative factors and causes for PEAs of older adults.

DESIGN

A mixed-method observational study.

SETTING

The EDs of two Dutch hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

492 patients aged >70 years and hospitalised from the ED.

MEASUREMENTS

Quantitative data were retrospectively extracted from the electronical medical record over a 1-month period. Admissions were classified (non)preventable based on a standardised approach. Univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to identify possible associations between PEAs and demographic, clinical and care process factors. Qualitative data were prospectively collected by email and telephone interviews and analysed thematically to explore hospital physician's perceived causes for the identified PEAs.

RESULTS

Of the 492 included cases, 86 (17.5%) were classified as PEA. Patients with a higher age (adjusted OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08; p=0.04), a low urgency classification (adjusted OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.15; p=0.01), and attending the ED in the weekend (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.37; p<0.01) were associated with an increased likelihood of a PEA. 49 physicians were interviewed by telephone and email. Perceived causes for PEAs were related to patient's attitudes (eg, postponement of medical care at home), provider's attitudes (eg, deciding for admission after family pressure), health system deficiencies (eg, limited access to community services during out-of-hours and delayed access to inpatient diagnostic resources) and poor communication between primary care and hospital professionals about patient treatment preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to existing evidence that many emergency admissions of older adults are preventable, thereby indicating a possible source of unnecessary expensive, and potentially harmful, hospital care.

Patterns of emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a spatial cross-sectional analysis of observational data

OBJECTIVES

To examine the spatial and temporal patterns of English general practices' emergency admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs).

DESIGN

Observational study of practice level annual hospital emergency admissions data for ACSCs for all English practices from 2004-2017.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients with an emergency admission to a National Health Service hospital in England who were registered with an English general practice.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Practice level age and gender indirectly standardised ratios (ISARs) for emergency admissions for ACSC.

RESULTS

In 2017, 41.8% of the total variation in ISARs across practices was between the 207 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) (the administrative unit for general practices) and 58.2% was across practices within CCGs. ACSC ISARs increased by 4.7% between 2004 and 2017, while those for conditions incentivised by the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) fell by 20%. Practice ISARs are persistent: practices with high rates in 2004 also had high rates in 2017. Standardising by deprivation as well as age and gender reduced the coefficient of variation of practice ISARs in 2017 by 22%.

CONCLUSIONS

There is persistent spatial pattern of emergency admissions for ACSC across England both within and across CCGs. We illustrate the reduction in ACSCs emergency admissions across the study period for conditions incentivised by the QOF but find that this was not accompanied by a reduction in variation in these admissions across practices. The observed spatial pattern persists when admission rates are standardised by deprivation. The persistence of spatial clusters of high emergency admissions for ACSCs within and across CCG boundaries suggests that policies to reduce potentially unwarranted variation should be targeted at practice level.

How sensitive are avoidable emergency department attendances to primary care quality? Retrospective observational study

Background

Improvements in primary care quality are often proposed as a solution to rises in emergency department (ED) attendances. However, there is little agreement on what constitutes an avoidable attendance, and the relationship between primary care quality and ED demand remains poorly understood.

Objective

To estimate the size of the associations between primary care quality and volumes of ED attendances classified as avoidable.

Methods

Retrospective observational study of all attendances at EDs in England during 2015/2016, applying three definitions of avoidable attendance. We linked practice-level counts of attendances to seven measures of primary care access, patient experience and clinical quality for 7521 practices. We used count data regressions to associate attendance counts with levels of quality. We then calculated proportions of attendances associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average.

Results

Attendance volumes were negatively related to three of the seven quality measures. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for all attendances associated with 10 percentage-point differences in quality were 0.987 for clinical quality and 0.987 for easy telephone access and 0.978 for ability to get an appointment. These associations were relatively stronger for narrower definitions of avoidable attendances (for the narrowest definition, IRRs=0.966, 0.976 and 0.934, respectively) but represented fewer attendances in absolute terms. 341 000 (2.4%) attendances were associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average in 2015/2016.

Conclusion

ED attendances are sensitive to primary care quality, but magnitudes of these associations are small. Attendances are much less responsive to differences in primary care quality than indicated by estimates of the prevalence of avoidable attendances. This may explain the failure of initiatives to reduce attendances through primary care improvements.

Comparison and Impact of Four Different Methodologies for Identification of Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions

Ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are conditions for which hospitalizations are thought to be avoidable if effective and accessible primary health care is available. However, to define which conditions are considered ACSCs, there is a considerable number of different lists. Our aim was to compare the impact of using different ACSC lists considering mainland Portugal hospitalizations. A retrospective study with inpatient data from Portuguese public hospital discharges between 2011 and 2015 was conducted. Four ACSC list sources were considered: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), the Victorian Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions study, and Sarmento et al. Age-sex-adjusted rates of ACSCs were calculated by district (hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants). Spearman's rho, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the information-based measure of disagreement (IBMD), and Bland and Altman plots were computed. Results showed that by applying the four lists, different age-sex-adjusted rates are obtained. However, the lists that seemed to demonstrate greater agreement and consistency were the list proposed by Sarmento et al. compared to AHRQ and the AHRQ method compared to the Victorian list. It is important to state that we should compare comparable indicators and ACSC lists cannot be used interchangeably.

Prevalence of COPD by age, sex, socioeconomic position and smoking status; a cross-sectional study

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to calculate gender and socioeconomic status (SES) inequalities in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Greater Glasgow and Clyde and measure the proportion of inequalities explained by smoking.

Design/methodology/approach

Medical records until May 2016 were linked to mortality data to measure COPD prevalence. Population estimates for smoking status were calculated by merging three (2013–2015) Scottish Household Survey rounds. Poisson regression was carried out to analyse the relationship between SES and gender inequalities in COPD, and smoking.

Findings

Crude COPD prevalence for ages 16+ years was 3.29% and for ages 45 years+ was 6.26%, and higher in females than males. Adjusting for age and sex, prevalence of COPD in the most deprived quintile was 4.5 times of that in the least deprived. Adjustment for smoking explains almost half of the relative difference between Scottish Indicator for Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 1 (least affluent quintile of deprivation) and SIMD 5 (most affluent quintile) and a fifth of the absolute difference. There is a higher risk of COPD among male non-smokers than female, but among smokers the risk is greater for females than males.

Research limitations/implications

Risk factors specific to respiratory health beyond smoking and common risk factors of morbidity more generally should be considered in understanding inequalities in COPD.

Originality/value

Prevalence of COPD is higher than previously thought. Smoking explains less than half of inequalities in COPD. Gender inequalities in COPD are dependent on smoking status and the smoking indicator used.

Emergency admissions of ambulatory care sensitive conditions at a Japanese local hospital: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Emergency admissions of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are a key marker of quality of primary care and are used nationwide in some countries including the UK and Australia. There are still little data on ACSCs available in Japan. This study aimed to provide the descriptive data of the current state of ACSCs at a local hospital in Japan.

METHODS

This is an observational study of retrospective chart review. The study setting is Funabashi Futawa Hospital (FFH), an acute care private hospital in Funabashi City, Japan. We analyzed the shares of admissions of ACSCs out of all admissions at FFH from April 2014 to March 2015.

RESULTS

5380 charts were reviewed. Emergency admissions were 3275 cases (61%) of all admissions. Emergency admissions for ACSCs accounted for 946 cases (28.9%) of all emergency admissions. Chronic ACSC is the most common subcategory. Urinary tract infection accounted most for admissions of acute ACSCs (138 cases, 4.2% of all emergency admissions). Asthma accounted most for admissions of chronic ACSCs (139 cases, 4.2%). Pneumonia accounted most for admissions of vaccine-preventable ACSCs (99 cases, 3.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of the first reports describing ACSCs in Japan. Most common reasons for ACSCs were similar to the previous data from the UK, except COPD ranked lower and asthma ranked higher, respectively. Comparison among different facilities (horizontal) and over time in the same institution (longitudinal), as well as analyzing relationships between other markers of primary care quality and ACSCs, will be necessary in the future.

Cohort profile: CROSS-TRACKS: a population-based open cohort across healthcare sectors in Denmark

PURPOSE

This paper describes the open cohort CROSS-TRACKS, which comprises population-based data from primary care, secondary care and national registries to study patient pathways and transitions across sectors while adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 221 283 individuals resided in the four Danish municipalities that constituted the catchment area of Horsens Regional Hospital in 2012-2018. A total of 96% of the population used primary care, 35% received at least one transfer payment and 66% was in contact with a hospital at least once in the period. Additional clinical information is available for hospital contacts (eg, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index and blood pressure). A total of 23% (n=8191) of individuals aged ≥65 years had at least one potentially preventable hospital admission, and 73% (n=5941) of these individuals had more than one.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The cohort is currently used for research projects in epidemiology and artificial intelligence. These projects comprise a prediction model for potentially preventable hospital admissions, a clinical decision support system based on artificial intelligence, prevention of medication errors in the transition between sectors, health behaviour and sociodemographic characteristics of men and women prior to fertility treatment, and a recently published study applying machine learning methods for early detection of sepsis.

FUTURE PLANS

The CROSS-TRACKS cohort will be expanded to comprise the entire Central Denmark Region consisting of 1.3 million residents. The cohort can provide new knowledge on how to best organise interventions across healthcare sectors and prevent potentially preventable hospital admissions. Such knowledge would benefit both the individual citizen and society as a whole.

Evaluation of comprehensive annual care plans by pharmacists in Alberta for patients with complex conditions

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the population of patients who received a pharmacist-billed comprehensive annual care plan (CACP) in Alberta and to evaluate any changes in health care use for such patients, including physician visits, hospitalizations, and emergency department (ED) visits.

METHODS

We used administrative data from Alberta Health to identify all individuals in Alberta who received a pharmacist CACP between July 1, 2012, and March 31, 2015. Two control patients were identified for each CACP patient, matched on age, sex, provider, date of service, and qualifying conditions. Controlled interrupted time series analyses were used to evaluate changes in physician visits, all-cause and ambulatory care-sensitive condition (ACSC)-related hospitalizations, and ED visits in the 12 months before and after the CACP index date.

RESULTS

Between July 1, 2012, and March 31, 2015, 188,640 pharmacy CACPs were billed in Alberta. Of these, 137,178 CACP patients were matched to 241,658 control patients. Those who received a CACP were associated with an overall decrease in all-cause hospitalizations, ACSC-related ED visits, and physician visits (181, 144, and 1206 events per 10,000 people, respectively, P < 0.05) compared with controls. However, among those who received a CACP, all-cause ED visits and ACSC-related hospitalizations increased by 40.1 and 8 visits per 10,000, respectively (P < 0.05), compared with controls.

CONCLUSION

The uptake of the pharmacy CACP remuneration model has been substantial since 2012. Overall, the CACP philosophy of a single yearly assessment has demonstrated limited impact on major health care use.

Impact of a national primary care pay-for-performance scheme on ambulatory care sensitive hospital admissions: a small-area analysis in England

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to spatially describe hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in England at small-area geographical level and assess whether recorded practice performance under one of the world's largest primary care pay-for-performance schemes led to reductions in these potentially avoidable hospitalisations for chronic conditions incentivised in the scheme.

SETTING

We obtained numbers of ACSC hospital admissions from the Hospital Episode Statistics database and information on recorded practice performance from the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) administrative dataset for 2015/2016. We fitted three sets of negative binomial models to examine ecological associations between incentivised ACSC admissions, general practice performance, deprivation, urbanity and other sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Hospital admissions for QOF incentivised ACSCs varied within and between regions, with clusters of high numbers of hospital admissions for incentivised ACSCs identified across England. Our models indicated a very small effect of the QOF on reducing admissions for incentivised ACSCs (0.993, 95% CI 0.990 to 0.995), however, other factors, such as deprivation (1.021, 95% CI 1.020 to 1.021) and urbanicity (0.875, 95% CI 0.862 to 0.887), were far more important in explaining variations in admissions for ACSCs. People in deprived areas had a higher risk of being admitted in hospital for an incentivised ACSC condition.

CONCLUSION

Spatial analysis based on routinely collected data can be used to identify areas with high rates of potentially avoidable hospital admissions, providing valuable information for targeting resources and evaluating public health interventions. Our findings suggest that the QOF had a very small effect on reducing avoidable hospitalisation for incentivised conditions. Material deprivation and urbanicity were the strongest predictors of the variation in ACSC rates for all QOF incentivised conditions across England.

Supporting good quality, community-based end-of-life care for people living with dementia: the SEED research programme including feasibility RCT

Background

In the UK, most people with dementia die in the community and they often receive poorer end-of-life care than people with cancer.

Objective

The overall aim of this programme was to support professionals to deliver good-quality, community-based care towards, and at, the end of life for people living with dementia and their families.

Design

The Supporting Excellence in End-of-life care in Dementia (SEED) programme comprised six interlinked workstreams. Workstream 1 examined existing guidance and outcome measures using systematic reviews, identified good practice through a national e-survey and explored outcomes of end-of-life care valued by people with dementia and family carers (n = 57) using a Q-sort study. Workstream 2 explored good-quality end-of-life care in dementia from the perspectives of a range of stakeholders using qualitative methods (119 interviews, 12 focus groups and 256 observation hours). Using data from workstreams 1 and 2, workstream 3 used co-design methods with key stakeholders to develop the SEED intervention. Worksteam 4 was a pilot study of the SEED intervention with an embedded process evaluation. Using a cluster design, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of recruitment and retention, outcome measures and our intervention. Four general practices were recruited in North East England: two were allocated to the intervention and two provided usual care. Patient recruitment was via general practitioner dementia registers. Outcome data were collected at baseline, 4, 8 and 12 months. Workstream 5 involved economic modelling studies that assessed the potential value of the SEED intervention using a contingent valuation survey of the general public (n = 1002). These data informed an economic decision model to explore how the SEED intervention might influence care. Results of the model were presented in terms of the costs and consequences (e.g. hospitalisations) and, using the contingent valuation data, a cost–benefit analysis. Workstream 6 examined commissioning of end-of-life care in dementia through a narrative review of policy and practice literature, combined with indepth interviews with a national sample of service commissioners (n = 20).

Setting

The workstream 1 survey and workstream 2 included services throughout England. The workstream 1 Q-sort study and workstream 4 pilot trial took place in North East England. For workstream 4, four general practices were recruited; two received the intervention and two provided usual care.

Results

Currently, dementia care and end-of-life care are commissioned separately, with commissioners receiving little formal guidance and training. Examples of good practice rely on non-recurrent funding and leadership from an interested clinician. Seven key components are required for good end-of-life care in dementia: timely planning discussions, recognising end of life and providing supportive care, co-ordinating care, effective working with primary care, managing hospitalisation, continuing care after death, and valuing staff and ongoing learning. Using co-design methods and the theory of change, the seven components were operationalised as a primary care-based, dementia nurse specialist intervention, with a care resource kit to help the dementia nurse specialist improve the knowledge of family and professional carers. The SEED intervention proved feasible and acceptable to all stakeholders, and being located in the general practice was considered beneficial. None of the outcome measures was suitable as the primary outcome for a future trial. The contingent valuation showed that the SEED intervention was valued, with a wider package of care valued more than selected features in isolation. The SEED intervention is unlikely to reduce costs, but this may be offset by the value placed on the SEED intervention by the general public.

Limitations

The biggest challenge to the successful delivery and completion of this research programme was translating the ‘theoretical’ complex intervention into practice in an ever-changing policy and service landscape at national and local levels. A major limitation for a future trial is the lack of a valid and relevant primary outcome measure to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that influences outcomes for both individuals and systems.

Conclusions

Although the dementia nurse specialist intervention was acceptable, feasible and integrated well with existing care, it is unlikely to reduce costs of care; however, it was highly valued by all stakeholders (professionals, people with dementia and their families) and has the potential to influence outcomes at both an individual and a systems level.

Future work

There is no plan to progress to a full randomised controlled trial of the SEED intervention in its current form. In view of new National Institute for Health and Care Excellence dementia guidance, which now recommends a care co-ordinator for all people with dementia, the feasibility of providing the SEED intervention throughout the illness trajectory should be explored. Appropriate outcome measures to evaluate the effectiveness of such a complex intervention are needed urgently.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21390601.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research, Vol. 8, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Individual and neighbourhood socioeconomic status increase risk of avoidable hospitalizations among Canadian adults: A retrospective cohort study of linked population health data

INTRODUCTION

Avoidable hospitalizations refer to acute care use for conditions that should normally be managed in primary care settings. Lower socioeconomic status that is often measured using area-based indicators (e.g. median household income) has been shown to increase risk of avoidable hospitalizations. However, both area- and individual-level socioeconomic status can contribute to hospitalization risk, but previous data limitations have prevented separate analyses. Further, the joint effect of individual and neighbourhood socioeconomic status has not been established in the Canadian population. To address this, this study links individual-level household income and neighbourhood-level material deprivation data within a population-based Canadian cohort.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the individual and joint effect of individual-level household income and neighbourhood-level material deprivation on risk of hospitalization for a set of chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions using linked health survey, hospital discharge, and census-derived data.

METHODS

A pooled cohort was created by linking sociodemographic and health information from eight cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000/2001 - 2010) to hospital discharge records and Canadian Marginalization Indices (2001, 2006) (N = 354,595). The primary outcome variable was risk of index hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of angina, asthma, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, epilepsy, or hypertension. The primary exposure variable was joint individual-level national household income quintile and neighbourhood-level material deprivation quintile. Relative risk (RR) was estimated by constructing modified Poisson regression models with robust error variance.

RESULTS

In fully adjusted models with income and deprivation considered separately, individuals in the lowest household income quintile and highest material deprivation quintile were at increased risk of hospitalization (Income RR: 1.82 (95% CI 1.56-2.13) Deprivation RR: 1.67 (1.44-1.95)). When income and deprivation were jointly considered, those with low individual income living in high deprivation neighbourhoods were at greatest risk of hospitalization (RR 1.83 (95% CI 1.63 - 2.05)).

CONCLUSION

Both individual income and neighbourhood deprivation separately and jointly increase risk of avoidable hospitalizations. Additional research is needed to understand their mechanisms of action. However, both levels should be considered when designing effective policies and interventions to reduce avoidable hospitalizations.

Avoidable hospitalisation for diabetes mellitus among immigrants and natives: Results from the Italian Network for Longitudinal Metropolitan Studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Italy has experienced a relevant increase in migration inflow over the last 20 years. Although the Italian Health Service is widely accessible, immigrants can face many barriers that limit their use of health services. Diabetes mellitus (DM) has a different prevalence across ethnic groups, but studies focusing on DM care among immigrants in Europe are scarce. This study aimed to compare the rates of avoidable hospitalisation (AH) between native and immigrant adults in Italy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A multi-centre open cohort study including all 18- to 64-year-old residents in Turin, Venice, Reggio-Emilia, Modena, Bologna and Rome between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2013-14 was conducted. Italian citizens were compared with immigrants from high migratory pressure countries who were further divided by their area of origin. We calculated age-, sex- and calendar year-adjusted rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of AH for DM by citizenship using negative binomial regression models. The RRs were summarized using a random effects meta-analysis. The results showed higher AH rates among immigrant males (RR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.16-2.23), whereas no significant difference was found for females (RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.65-1.99). Immigrants from Asia and Africa showed a higher risk than Italians, whereas those from Central-Eastern Europe and Central-Southern America did not show any increased risk.

CONCLUSION

Adult male immigrants were at higher risk of experiencing AH for DM than Italians, with differences by area of origin, suggesting that they may experience lower access to and lower quality of primary care for DM. These services should be improved to reduce disparities.

Cumulative social disadvantage and hospitalisations due to ambulatory care-sensitive conditions in Finland in 2011─2013: a register study

OBJECTIVES

To study the interplay between several indicators of social disadvantage and hospitalisations due to ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC) in 2011─2013. To evaluate whether the accumulation of preceding social disadvantage in one point of time or prolongation of social disadvantage had an effect on hospitalisations due to ACSCs. Four common indicators of disadvantage are examined: living alone, low level of education, poverty and unemployment.

DESIGN

A population-based register study.

SETTING

Nationwide individual-level register data on hospitalisations due to ACSCs for the years 2011-2013 and preceding data on social and socioeconomic factors for the years 2006─2010.

PARTICIPANTS

Finnish residents aged 45 or older on 1 January 2011.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Hospitalisations due to ACSCs in 2011-2013. The effect of accumulation of preceding disadvantage in one point of time and its prolongation on ACSCs was studied using modified Poisson regression.

RESULTS

People with preceding cumulative social disadvantage were more likely to be hospitalised due to ACSCs. The most hazardous combination was simultaneously living alone, low level of education and poverty among the middle-aged individuals (aged 45-64 years) and the elderly (over 64 years). Risk ratio (RR) of being hospitalised due to ACSC was 3.16 (95% CI 3.03-3.29) among middle-aged men and 3.54 (3.36-3.73) among middle-aged women compared with individuals without any of these risk factors when controlling for age and residential area. For the elderly, the RR was 1.61 (1.57-1.66) among men and 1.69 (1.64-1.74) among women.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve social equity in healthcare, it is important to recognise not only patients with cumulative disadvantage but also-as this study shows-patients with particular combinations of disadvantage who may be more susceptible. The identification of these vulnerable patient groups is also necessary to reduce the use of more expensive treatment in specialised healthcare.

Defining ambulatory care sensitive conditions for adults in Portugal

BACKGROUND

Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are health conditions for which adequate management, treatment and interventions delivered in the ambulatory care setting could potentially prevent hospitalization. Which conditions are sensitive to ambulatory care varies according to the scope of health care services and the context in which the indicator is used. The need for a country-specific validated list for Portugal has already been identified, but currently no national list exists. The objective of this study was to develop a list of Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions for Portugal.

METHODS

A modified web-based Delphi panel approach was designed, in order to determine which conditions can be considered ACSCs in the Portuguese adult population. The selected experts were general practitioners and internal medicine physicians identified by the most relevant Portuguese scientific societies. Experts were presented with previously identified ACSC and asked to select which could be accepted in the Portuguese context. They were also asked to identify other conditions they considered relevant. We estimated the number and cost of ACSC hospitalizations in 2017 in Portugal according to the identified conditions.

RESULTS

After three rounds the experts agreed on 34 of the 45 initially proposed items. Fourteen new conditions were proposed and four achieved consensus, namely uterine cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, thromboembolic venous disease and voluntary termination of pregnancy. In 2017 133,427 hospitalizations were for ACSC (15.7% of all hospitalizations). This represents a rate of 1685 per 100,000 adults. The most frequent diagnosis were pneumonia, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/chronic bronchitis, urinary tract infection, colorectal cancer, hypertensive disease atrial fibrillation and complications of diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS

New ACSC were identified. It is expected that this list could be used henceforward by epidemiologic studies, health services research and for healthcare management purposes. ACSC lists should be updated frequently. Further research is necessary to increase the specificity of ACSC hospitalizations as an indicator of healthcare performance.

Health TAPESTRY Ontario: protocol for a randomized controlled trial to test reproducibility and implementation

BACKGROUND

Health TAPESTRY (Health Teams Advancing Patient Experience: STRengthening qualitY) aims to help people stay healthier for longer where they live by providing person-focused care through the integration of four key program components: (1) trained volunteers who visit clients in their homes, (2) an interprofessional primary health care team, (3) use of technology to collect and share information, and (4) improved connections to community health and social services. The initial randomized controlled trial of Health TAPESTRY found promising results in terms of health care use and patient outcomes, indicating a shift from reactive to preventive care. The trial was based on one clinical academic center, thus limiting generalizability. The study objectives are (1) to test reproducibility of the established effectiveness of Health TAPESTRY on physical activity and hospitalizations, (2) to test the feasibility of, and understand the contributing factors to, the implementation of Health TAPESTRY in six diverse communities across Ontario, Canada, and (3) to determine the value for money of implementing Health TAPESTRY.

METHODS

This planned study is a pragmatic parallel randomized controlled trial with a delayed intervention for control participants at 6 months. This trial will simultaneously assess effectiveness and implementation in a real-world setting (type II hybrid) in six diverse communities across Ontario. Participants 70 years of age and older will be randomized into the Health TAPESTRY intervention or the control group (usual care). Intervention clients will receive an individualized plan of care from an interprofessional care team. The plan will be based on a client's goals and current health risks identified through volunteer visits. The study's outcomes are mapped onto the RE-AIM framework, with levels of physical activity and number of hospitalizations as the co-primary outcomes. The main analysis will be a comparison at 6 months.

DISCUSSION

It is important to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of Health TAPESTRY in multiple communities prior to scaling or widespread adoption.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03397836 . Registered on 12 January 2018.

Mortality related to ambulatory care sensitive hospitalisations in Finland

Aims: Hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions are used as an outcome indicator of access to and quality of primary care. Evidence on mortality related to these hospitalisations is scarce. This study analysed the effect of ambulatory care sensitive condition hospitalisations to subsequent mortality and time or geographical trends in the mortality indicating variations in ambulatory care sensitive conditions outcomes. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used individual-level data from national registers concerning ambulatory care sensitive condition hospitalisations. Crude and age-adjusted 365-day mortality rates for the first ambulatory care sensitive condition-related admission were calculated for vaccine-preventable, acute, and chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions separately, and for three time periods stratified by gender. The mortality rates were also compared to mortality in the general Finnish population to assess the excess mortality related to ambulatory care sensitive condition hospitalisations. Results: The data comprised a total of 712,904 ambulatory care sensitive condition hospital admissions with the crude 365-day mortality rate of 14.2 per 100 person-years. Mortality for those hospitalised for vaccine-preventable conditions was approximately 10-fold compared to the general population and four-fold in chronic and acute conditions. Of the 10 most common ambulatory care sensitive conditions, bacterial pneumonia and influenza and congestive heart failure were associated with highest age-standardised mortality rates. Conclusions: Hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions were shown to be associated with excess mortality in patients compared to the general population. Major differences in mortality were found between different types of ambulatory care sensitive condition admissions. There were also minor differences in mortality between hospital districts. These differences are important to consider when using preventable hospital admissions as an indicator of primary care performance.

Effect of Ambient Air Pollution on Hospital Readmissions among the Pediatric Asthma Patient Population in South Texas: A Case-Crossover Study

Few studies have evaluated the association between ambient air pollution and hospital readmissions among children with asthma, especially in low-income communities. This study examined the short-term effects of ambient air pollutants on hospital readmissions for pediatric asthma in South Texas. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using the hospitalization data from a children’s hospital and the air pollution data, including particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) and ozone concentrations, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between 2010 and 2014. A conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between ambient air pollution and hospital readmissions, controlling for outdoor temperature. We identified 111 pediatric asthma patients readmitted to the hospital between 2010 and 2014. The single-pollutant models showed that PM_2.5 concentration had a significant positive effect on risk for hospital readmissions (OR = 1.082, 95% CI = 1.008–1.162, p = 0.030). In the two-pollutant models, the increased risk of pediatric readmissions for asthma was significantly associated with both elevated ozone (OR = 1.023, 95% CI = 1.001–1.045, p = 0.042) and PM_2.5 concentrations (OR = 1.080, 95% CI = 1.005–1.161, p = 0.036). The effects of ambient air pollutants on hospital readmissions varied by age and season. Our findings suggest that short-term (4 days) exposure to air pollutants might increase the risk of preventable hospital readmissions for pediatric asthma patients.

Clarifying the concept of avoidable emergency department attendance

Emergency department attendances are rising in several countries. Many of the policies aimed at reducing emergency department attendances are based on the assumption that a proportion of current utilization is ‘avoidable’ and therefore could be reduced. In considering how to achieve this aim, it is important to first understand the problem. In this essay, we review the literature on the concept and identification of avoidable emergency department attendances in England. We identified three areas of inconsistency surrounding avoidable emergency department attendances: the terminology, the underlying definition, and the method used to identify avoidable attendances. We offer a more nuanced definition which may better support action to reduce emergency department activity. Recognizing that there are different types of undesirable utilization which vary by underlying causes and potential solutions will aid policy makers in identifying areas where policies targeting reductions in emergency department attendances would best be directed.

Patient choice, entry, and the quality of primary care: Evidence from Swedish reforms

Policies aiming to spur quality competition among health care providers are ubiquitous, but their impact on quality is ex ante ambiguous, and credible empirical evidence is lacking in many contexts. This study contributes to the sparse literature on competition and primary care quality by examining recent competition enhancing reforms in Sweden. The reforms aimed to stimulate patient choice and entry of private providers across the country but affected markets differently depending on the initial market structure. We exploit the heterogeneous impact of the reforms in a difference-in-differences strategy, contrasting more and less exposed markets over the period 2005-2013. Although the reforms led to substantially more entry of new providers in more exposed markets, the effects on primary care quality were modest: We find small improvements of patients' overall satisfaction with care, but no consistently significant effects on avoidable hospitalisation rates or satisfaction with access to care. We find no evidence of economically meaningful quality reductions on any outcome measure.

The Effect of Access to Primary Care Physicians on Avoidable Hospitalizations: A Time Series Study in Rural Areas of Tehran Province, Iran

Background

Avoidable hospitalizations (AHs) are defined as hospitalizations that could have been prevented through timely and effective services. AHs are, therefore, an indicator used to evaluate the access and effectiveness of primary health care services.

Methods

A retrospective time-series study spanning 8 years (2006–2013) was conducted to determine the relationship between AHs and gender, age, and access to primary health care physicians in rural areas in Tehran province, the capital of Iran. The total number of avoidable hospitalizations was 22,570; logistic regression was estimated for each year separately.

Results

Total hospitalizations and AHs increased during the study period, especially during the first 3 years of the study. AHs, as a percentage of total hospitalizations, did not change significantly throughout the study years. This value was 22.3% during the first year of study and varied between 17% and 19.6% from 2007 to 2013. No statistically significant relationship was seen between AH occurrence and access to a physician during the study years.

Conclusion

Increasing access to primary health care physicians cannot necessarily result in decreased AHs. Considering the factors influencing AHs while designing and implementing the family physicians program is important to achieve the expected results regarding the effectiveness of primary health care services.

Socioeconomic inequalities in hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, 1990-2018

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions are an important indicator of health system equity and performance. Chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions refer to chronic diseases that can be managed in primary care settings, including angina, asthma, and diabetes, with hospitalizations for these conditions considered potentially avoidable with adequate primary care interventions. Socioeconomic inequities in the risk of hospitalization have been observed in several health systems globally. While there are multiple studies examining the association between socioeconomic status and hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions, these studies have not been systematically reviewed. The objective of this study is to systematically identify and describe socioeconomic inequalities in hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions amongst adult populations in economically developed countries reported in high-quality observational studies published in the peer-reviewed literature.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed literature was searched in six health and social science databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, ASSIA, and IBSS using search terms for hospitalization, socioeconomic status, and chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Study titles and abstracts were first screened followed by full-text review according to the following eligibility criteria: 1) Study outcome is hospitalization for selected chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions; 2) Primary exposure is individual- or area-level socioeconomic status; 3) Study population has a mean age ± 1 SD < 75 years of age; 4) Study setting is economically developed countries; and 5) Study type is observational. Relevant data was then extracted, and studies were critically appraised using appropriate tools from The Joanna Briggs Institute. Results were narratively synthesized according to socioeconomic constructs and type of adjustment (minimally versus fully adjusted).

RESULTS

Of the 15,857 unique peer-reviewed studies identified, 31 studies met the eligibility criteria and were of sufficient quality for inclusion. Socioeconomic constructs and hospitalization outcomes varied across studies. However, despite this heterogeneity, a robust and consistent association between lower levels of socioeconomic status and higher risk of hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review is the first to comprehensively identify and analyze literature on the relationship between SES and hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions, considering both aggregate and condition-specific outcomes that are common to several international health systems. The evidence consistently demonstrates that lower socioeconomic status is a risk factor for hospitalization across global settings. Effective health and social interventions are needed to reduce these inequities and ensure fair and adequate care across socioeconomic groups.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018088727.

Effect Modification of Multimorbidity on the Association Between Regularity of General Practitioner Contacts and Potentially Avoidable Hospitalisations

BACKGROUND

Scheduled regular contact with the general practitioner (GP) may lower the risk of potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAHs). Despite the high prevalence of multimorbidity, little is known about its effect on the relationship between regularity of GP contact and PAHs.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate potential effect modification of multimorbidity on the relationship between regularity of GP contact and probability of PAHs.

DESIGN

A retrospective, cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

229,964 individuals aged 45 years and older from the 45 and Up Study in New South Wales, Australia, from 2009 to 2015.

MAIN MEASURES

The main exposure was regularity of GP contact (capturing dispersion of GP contacts); the outcomes were PAHs evaluated by unplanned hospitalisations, chronic ambulatory care sensitive condition (ACSC) hospitalisations and unplanned chronic ACSC hospitalisations. Multivariable logistic regression models and population attributable fractions (PAF) were conducted to identify effect modification of multimorbidity, assessed by Rx-Risk comorbidity score.

KEY RESULTS

Compared with the lowest quintile of regularity, the highest quintile had significantly lower predicted probability of unplanned admission (- 79.9 per 1000 people at risk, 95% confidence interval (CI) - 85.6; - 74.2), chronic ACSC (- 6.07 per 1000 people at risk, 95%CI - 8.07; - 4.08) and unplanned chronic ACSC hospitalisation (- 4.68 per 1000 people at risk, 95%CI - 6.11; - 3.26). Effect modification of multimorbidity was observed. Specifically, the PAF among people with no multimorbidity indicated that 31.7% (95%CI 28.7-34.4%) of unplanned, 36.4% (95%CI 25.1-45.9%) of chronic ACSC and 48.9% (95%CI 32.9-61.1%) of unplanned chronic ACSC hospitalisation would be reduced by a shift to the highest quintile of regularity. However, among people with 10+ morbidities, the proportional reduction was only 5.2% (95%CI 3.8-6.5%), 9.0% (95%CI 0.5-16.8%) and 17.8% (95%CI 5.4-28.5%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Weakening of the association between regularity and PAHs with increasing levels of multimorbidity suggests a need to improve primary care support to prevent PAHs for patients with multimorbidity.

An observational cohort study of numbers and causes of preventable general hospital admissions in people with and without intellectual disabilities in England

BACKGROUND

Hospital admissions for preventable reasons [ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions] can indicate gaps in access to or quality of primary care. This paper seeks to document the numbers and causes of these admissions in England for people with intellectual disabilities (ID) compared with those without.

METHODS

Observational cohort study of number and duration of emergency admitted patient episodes for ACS conditions, overall and by cause, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD primary care database and the linked Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care dataset.

RESULTS

The study covered 5.2% of the population of England from April 2010 to March 2014 giving a total population base of 59 280 person-years for people with ID and 11 103 910 for people without identified ID. The rate of emergency admissions for ACS conditions for people with ID was 77.5 per 1000 person-years. As a crude comparison, this was 3.0 times the rate for those without ID, but standardising for the distinct demography of this group, the number of episodes was 4.8 times that expected if they had the same age-specific and sex-specific rates. Stay durations for these episodes were longer for both young-age and working-age people with ID. Overall people with ID used 399.8 bed-days per 1000 person-years. As a crude comparison, this is 2.8 times the figure for people without ID. Standardising for their age and sex profile, it is 5.4 times the number expected if they had the same age-specific and sex-specific rates. For patients with ID, 16.6% (one in six) of all admitted patient episodes and 24.3% (one in four) of in-patient care days for people with ID were for ACS conditions. Corresponding figures for those without ID were 8.3% (one in 12) and 14.4% (one in seven). The difference in rates between those with and without ID was most marked in people of working age. The three most common causes of emergency episodes for ACS conditions in people with ID were convulsions and epilepsy, influenza pneumonia and aspiration pneumonitis. Influenza pneumonia was also a common cause for people without ID. Episodes for convulsions and epilepsy and aspiration pneumonitis were specifically associated with people with ID.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of hospital admissions for ACS conditions provide an important indicator of health literacy, basic self-care (or support by carers) and the accessibility of primary care. High rates are seen for some conditions specifically associated with premature death in people with ID. Local monitoring of these figures could be used to indicate the effectiveness of local primary health services in providing support to people with ID.

Investigating the effectiveness of care delivery at an acute geriatric community hospital for older adults in the Netherlands: a protocol for a prospective controlled observational study

INTRODUCTION

Hospital admission in older adults with multiple chronic conditions is associated with unwanted outcomes like readmission, institutionalisation, functional decline and mortality. Providing acute care in the community and integrating effective components of care models might lead to a reduction in negative outcomes. Recently, the first geriatrician-led Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH) was introduced in the Netherlands. Care at the AGCH is focused on the treatment of acute diseases, comprehensive geriatric assessment, setting patient-led goals, early rehabilitation and streamlined transitions of care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective cohort study will investigate the effectiveness of care delivery at the AGCH on patient outcomes by comparing AGCH patients to two historic cohorts of hospitalised patients. Propensity score matching will correct for potential population differences. The primary outcome is the 3-month unplanned readmission rate. Secondary outcomes include functional decline, institutionalisation, healthcare utilisation, occurrence of delirium or falls, health-related quality of life, mortality and patient satisfaction. Measurements will be conducted at admission, discharge and 1, 3 and 6 months after discharge. Furthermore, an economic evaluation and qualitative process evaluation to assess facilitators and barriers to implementation are planned.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study will be conducted according to the Declaration of Helsinki. The Medical Ethics Research Committee confirmed that the Medical Research Involving Human Subjects Act did not apply to this research project and official approval was not required. The findings of this study will be disseminated through public lectures, scientific conferences and journal publications. Furthermore, the findings of this study will aid in the implementation and financing of this concept (inter)nationally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL7896; Pre-results.

Risk factors for avoidable hospitalizations in Canada using national linked data: A retrospective cohort study

Hospitalizations for certain chronic conditions are considered avoidable for adult Canadians given effective and timely primary care management. Individual-level risk factors such as income and health behaviours are not routinely collected in most hospital databases and as a result, are largely uncharacterized for avoidable hospitalization at the national level. The aim of this study was to identify and describe demographic, socioeconomic, and health behavioural risk factors for avoidable hospitalizations in Canada using linked data. A national retrospective cohort study was conducted by pooling eight cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000/2001-2011) and linking to hospitalization records in the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000–2012/2013). Respondents who were younger than 18 years and older than 74 years of age, residing in Quebec, or pregnant at baseline were excluded yielding a final cohort of 389,065 individuals. The primary outcome measure was time-to index avoidable hospitalization. Sex-stratified Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to determine effect sizes adjusted for various factors and their associated 95% confidence intervals. Demographics, socioeconomic status, and health behaviours are associated with risk of avoidable hospitalizations in males and females. In fully adjusted models, health behavioural variables had the largest effect sizes including heavy smoking (Male HR 2.65 (95% CI 2.17–3.23); Female HR 3.41 (2.81–4.13)) and being underweight (Male HR 1.98 (1.14–3.43); Female HR 2.78 (1.61–4.81)). Immigrant status was protective in both sexes (Male HR 0.83 (0.69–0.98); (Female HR 0.69 (0.57–0.84)). Adjustment for behavioural and clinical variables attenuated the effect of individual-level socioeconomic status. This study identified several risk factors for time-to-avoidable hospitalizations by sex, using the largest national database of linked health survey and hospitalization records. The larger effect sizes of several modifiable risk factors highlights the importance of prevention in addressing avoidable hospitalizations in Canada.

Direct and lost productivity costs associated with avoidable hospital admissions

Background

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions are commonly used to evaluate primary health care performance, as the hospital admission could be avoided if care was timely and adequate. Previous evidence indicates that avoidable hospitalizations carry a substantial direct financial burden in some countries. However, no attention has been given to the economic burden on society they represent. The aim of this study is to estimate the direct and lost productivity costs of avoidable hospital admissions in Portugal.

Methods

Hospitalizations occurring in Portugal in 2015 were analyzed. Avoidable hospitalizations were defined and their associated costs and years of potential life lost were calculated. Direct costs were obtained using official hospitalization prices. For lost productivity, there were estimated costs for absenteeism and premature death. Costs were analyzed by components, by conditions and by variations on estimation parameters.

Results

The total estimated cost associated with avoidable hospital admissions was €250 million (€2515 per hospitalization), corresponding to 6% of the total budget of public hospitals in Portugal. These hospitalizations led to 109,641 years of potential life lost. Bacterial pneumonia, congestive heart failure and urinary tract infection accounted for 77% of the overall costs. Nearly 82% of avoidable hospitalizations were in patients aged 65 years or older, therefore did not account for the lost productivity costs. Nearly 84% of the total cost comes from the direct cost of the hospitalization. Lost productivity costs are estimated to be around €40 million.

Conclusion

The age distribution of avoidable hospitalizations had a significant effect on costs components. Not only did hospital admissions have a substantial direct economic impact, they also imposed a considerable economic burden on society. Substantial financial resources could potentially be saved if the country reduced avoidable hospitalizations.

Risk of Frequent Emergency Department Use Among an Ambulatory Care Sensitive Condition Population: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

A small fraction of patients use a disproportionately large amount of emergency department (ED) resources. Identifying these patients, especially those with ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC), would allow health care professionals to enhance their outpatient care.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of the study were to determine predictive factors associated with frequent ED use in a Quebec adult population with ACSCs and to compare several models predicting the risk of becoming an ED frequent user following an ED visit.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This was an observational population-based cohort study extracted from Quebec's administrative data.

SUBJECTS

The cohort included 451,775 adult patients, living in nonremote areas, with an ED visit between January 2012 and December 2013 (index visit), and previously diagnosed with an ACSC but not dementia.

MEASURES

The outcome was frequent ED use (≥4 visits) during the year following the index visit. Predictors included sociodemographics, physical and mental comorbidities, and prior use of health services. We developed several logistic models (with different sets of predictors) on a derivation cohort (2012 cohort) and tested them on a validation cohort (2013 cohort).

RESULTS

Frequent ED users represented 5% of the cohort and accounted for 36% of all ED visits. A simple 2-variable prediction model incorporating history of hospitalization and number of previous ED use accurately predicted future frequent ED use. The full model with all sets of predictors performed only slightly better than the simple model (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.786 vs. 0.759, respectively; similar positive predictive value and number needed to evaluate curves).

CONCLUSIONS

The ability to identify frequent ED users based only on previous ED and hospitalization use provides an opportunity to rapidly target this population for appropriate interventions.

Increasing emergency hospital activity in Denmark, 2005-2016: a nationwide descriptive study

OBJECTIVES

To describe changes in unplanned acute activity and to identify and characterise unplanned contacts in hospitals in Denmark from 2005 to 2016, including following healthcare reform.

DESIGN

Descriptive study.

SETTING

Data from Danish nationwide registers.

POPULATION

Adults (≥18 years).

PARTICIPANTS

All adults with an unplanned acute hospital contacts (acute inpatient admissions and emergency care visits) in Denmark from 2005 to 2016.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were annual number of contacts, length of stay, number of contacts per 1000 citizen per year, age-adjusted contacts per 1000 citizens per year, sex, age groups, country of origin, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, discharge diagnosis and time of arrival.

RESULTS

We included a total of 13 524 680 contacts. The annual number of acute hospital contacts increased from 1 067 390 in 2005 to 1 221 601 in 2016. The number also increased with adjustment for age per 1000 citizens. In addition, regional differences were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Unplanned acute activity changed from 2005 to 2016. The national number of contacts increased, primarily because of changes in one of the five regions.

Inefficiencies in a healthcare system with a regulatory split of power: a spatial panel data analysis of avoidable hospitalisations in Austria

Despite generous universal social health insurance with little formal restrictions of outpatient utilisation, Austria exhibits high rates of avoidable hospitalisations, which indicate the inefficient provision of primary healthcare and might be a consequence of the strict regulatory split between the Austrian inpatient and outpatient sector. This paper exploits the considerable regional variations in acute and chronic avoidable hospitalisations in Austria to investigate whether those inefficiencies in primary care are rather related to regional healthcare supply or to population characteristics. To explicitly account for inter-regional dependencies, spatial panel data methods are applied to a comprehensive administrative dataset of all hospitalisations from 2008 to 2013 in the 117 Austrian districts. The initial selection of relevant covariates is based on Bayesian model averaging. The results of the analysis show that supply-side variables, such as the number of general practitioners, are significantly associated with decreased chronic and acute avoidable hospitalisations, whereas characteristics of the regional population, such as the share of population with university education or long-term unemployed, are less relevant. Furthermore, the spatial error term indicates that there are significant spatial dependencies between unobserved characteristics, such as practice style or patients' utilization behaviour. Not accounting for those would result in omitted variable bias.

Risk Factors for Acute Exacerbations in Elderly Asthma: What Makes Asthma in Older Adults Distinctive?

Purpose

Asthma in the elderly (EA; ≥ 65 years of age) is increasing, adding a heavy socioeconomic burden to the healthcare system. However, little is known about risk factors associated with acute exacerbations in EA patients. The objective of this study was to investigate risk factors for acute exacerbation in EA compared to non-elderly asthma (NEA).

Methods

We combined data from 3 adult asthma cohorts under a unified protocol and database. Asthmatic patients with regular follow-up during a 1-year period were selected from the cohorts to identify the risk factors predicting acute exacerbations in EA compared to NEA.

Results

We selected a total of 1,086 patients from the merged cohort. During the observation period, 503 and 583 patients were assigned to the EA and NEA groups, respectively. The exacerbation rate was 31.0% in the EA and 33.2% in the NEA group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed fixed airway obstruction, chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS), and male sex as independent risk factors for exacerbation in the EA group. In the NEA group, exacerbation increased along with an increase in eosinophil count. Bayesian analysis of the interactions among clinical factors revealed that forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity was directly related to exacerbation in the EA group, and eosinophil count was related to exacerbation in the NEA group.

Conclusions

We suggest that fixed airway obstruction and CRS as the important clinical factors predicting acute exacerbations in EA, whereas in NEA, eosinophil count was the strong predictor of exacerbation.

Financial Burdens and Barriers to Care Among Nonelderly Adults With Heart Disease: 2010-2015

Background We examined the prevalence of high burdens and barriers to care among adults with heart disease treatment. Methods and Results The participants were aged 18 to 64 years from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Household Component (MEPS-HC) for 2010-2015. High burden is out-of-pocket spending on care and insurance premiums >20% of income. Barriers to care are forgoing and delaying care for financial reasons. Logistic regressions were used to estimate the odds of having high burdens and barriers. Adults treated for heart disease have odds ratios (ORs) of 2.18 (95% CI, 1.91-2.50) for having high burden, 2.51 (95% CI, 2.23-2.83) for forgoing care, and 3.57 (95% CI, 3.8-4.13) for delaying care compared with adults without any chronic condition. Among adults treated for heart disease compared with adults with private group coverage, ORs for having high burdens were significantly lower among those with public insurance (OR: 0.17; 95% CI, 0.10-0.26) or the uninsured (OR: 0.58; 95% CI, 0.36-0.92) and higher among those with private nongroup insurance (OR: 5.30; 95% CI, 3.26-8.61). Compared with adults with private group coverage, ORs for delaying care were 2.07 (95% CI, 1.37-3.12) for those with public insurance, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.70-4.10) for those without insurance, and 2.16 (95% CI, 1.24-3.76) for those with private nongroup insurance. Conclusions Public insurance provides protection against high burdens but not against forgoing or delaying care. Future research should investigate whether and to what extent barriers to care are associated with worse health outcomes and higher costs in the long term.

Congestive heart failure-related hospital deaths across the urban-rural continuum in the United States

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a growing public health problem that affects nearly 6.5 million individuals nationwide. Access to quality outpatient care and disease management programs has been shown to improve disease treatment and prognosis. Rural populations face unique challenges in the availability and accessibility of quality cardiovascular care. In 2018, we conducted a pooled cross-sectional analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for 2009–2014 to examine recent trends in CHF-related hospital deaths in the United States, highlighting urban-rural differences within each census region. We performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to compare the odds of CHF-related hospital death, by levels of rurality and within each census region. Most CHF-related hospital deaths occurred in the South and Midwest census regions and in large central metropolitan areas. Findings from census region stratified models revealed that non-core residents living within the West (OR 1.47, CI 1.26, 1.71), Midwest (OR 1.30, CI 1.17, 1.44), and South (OR = 1.21, 95% C.I. = 1.12–1.32) had a higher relative risk (but not higher absolute numbers) of experiencing death during a CHF-related hospitalization, compared to patients in large central metropolitan areas. Within each census region, there were also differences in odds of a CHF-related hospital death depending on patient sex, comorbidities, insurance type, median annual income, and year. As efforts to reduce rural health disparities in CHF morbidity continue, more work is needed to understand and test interventions to reduce the risk of death from CHF in noncore areas of the West, Midwest, and South.

Identifying priorities for primary care investment in Ireland through a population-based analysis of avoidable hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC)

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the Irish acute hospital system operated well above internationally recommended occupancy targets. Investment in primary care can prevent hospital admissions of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs).

OBJECTIVE

To measure the impact of ACSCs on acute hospital capacity in the Irish public system and identify specific care areas for enhanced primary care provision.

DESIGN

National Hospital In-patient Enquiry System data were used to calculate 2011-2016 standardised bed day rates for selected ACSC conditions. A prioritisation exercise was undertaken to identify the most significant contributors to bed days within our hospital system. Poisson regression was used to determine change over time using incidence rate ratios (IRR).

RESULTS

In 2016 ACSCs accounted for almost 20% of acute public hospital beds (n=871 328 bed days) with adults over 65 representing 69.1% (n=602 392) of these. Vaccine preventable conditions represented 39.1% of ACSCs. Influenza and pneumonia were responsible for 99.8% of these, increasing by 8.2% (IRR: 1.02; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.03) from 2011 to 2016. Pyelonephritis represented 47.6% of acute ACSC bed days, increasing by 46.5% (IRR: 1.07; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.08) over the 5 years examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Prioritisation for targeted investment in integrated care programmes is enabled through analysis of ACSC's in terms of acute hospital bed days. This analysis demonstrates that primary care investment in integrated care programmes for respiratory ACSC's from prevention to rehabilitation at scale could assist with bed capacity in acute hospitals in Ireland. In adults 65 years and over, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, the current analysis supports targeting community based pulmonary rehabilitation including pneumococcal and influenza vaccination programmes in order to reduce the burden of infection and hospitalisations. Further exploration of pyelonephritis is necessary in order to ascertain patient profile and appropriateness of admissions.

Predictors of hospitalizations for diabetes in Germany: an ecological study on a small-area scale

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to evaluate the role of potential predictors in explaining spatial variation among diabetes hospitalization rates in Germany.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an ecological analysis using hospital routine data.

METHODS

County-level hospitalization rates (n = 402) in 2015 were calculated based on the German Diagnosis Related Groups database. We used a funnel plot to identify counties with high hospitalization rates. To examine the impact of predictors such as socio-economic status or structure of primary care, we performed linear and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The crude hospitalization rate was 262 admissions per 100,000 population. In multivariable logistic models, we found the percentage of employees with academic degree (odds ratio [OR]: 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.91), high hospital bed rate (4th quartile vs 1st quartile; OR: 2.73, CI: 1.03-7.24), and diabetes prevalence (OR: 1.49, CI: 1.17-1.90) to be significant predictors for high hospitalization rates. In multivariable linear models, the percentage of unemployed (regression coefficient b: 4.79, CI: 0.81-8.78) and rurality (b: 0.52, CI: 0.19-0.85) explained the variation in addition to predictors from logistic regression. Primary care structure was not a significant predictor in multivariable models.

CONCLUSIONS

The non-significant impact of primary care in adjusted models casts the use of diabetes hospitalizations as indicators for access and quality of primary care into doubt. Diabetes hospitalizations may rather reflect demand for care.

Trajectory modelling of ambulatory care sensitive conditions in Finland in 1996-2013: assessing the development of equity in primary health care through clustering of geographic areas - an observational retrospective study

Background

Due to stagnating resources and an increase in staff workload, the quality of Finnish primary health care (PHC) is claimed to have deteriorated slowly. With a decentralised PHC organisation and lack of national stewardship, it is likely that municipalities have adopted different coping strategies, predisposing them to geographic disparities. To assess whether these disparities emerge, we analysed health centre area trajectories in hospitalisations due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs).

Methods

ACSCs, a proxy for PHC quality, comprises conditions in which hospitalisation could be avoided by timely care. We obtained ACSCs of the total Finnish population aged ≥20 for the years 1996–2013 from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register, and divided them into subgroups of acute, chronic and vaccine-preventable causes, and calculated annual age-standardised ACSC rates by gender in health centre areas. Using these rates, we conducted trajectory analyses for identifying health centre area clusters using group-based trajectory modelling. Further, we applied area-level factors to describe the distribution of health centre areas on these trajectories.

Results

Three trajectories – and thus separate clusters of health centre areas – emerged with different levels and trends of ACSC rates. During the study period, chronic ACSC rates decreased (40–63%) within each of the clusters, acute ACSC rates remained stable and vaccine-preventable ACSC rates increased (1–41%). While disparities in rate differences in chronic ACSC rates between trajectories narrowed, in the two other ACSC subgroups they increased. Disparities in standardised rate ratios increased in vaccine-preventable and acute ACSC rates between northern cluster and the two other clusters. Compared to the south-western cluster, 13–16% of health centre areas, in rural northern cluster, had 47–92% higher ACSC rates – but also the highest level of morbidity, most limitations on activities of daily living and highest PHC inpatient ward usage as well as the lowest education levels and private health and dental care usage.

Conclusions

We identified three differing trajectories of time trends for ACSC rates, suggesting that the quality of care, particularly in northern Finland health centre areas, may have lagged behind the general improvements. This calls for further investments to strengthen rural area PHC.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4449-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Preventable hospitalizations from ambulatory care sensitive conditions in nursing homes: evidence from Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

Reducing nursing home hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) has been identified as an opportunity to improve patient well-being and reduce costs. The aim of this study was to identify number of hospitalizations for ACSCs for nursing home residents in a Swiss national sample, examine demographic characteristics of nursing home hospitalizations due to ACSCs, and calculate hospital expenses from these hospitalizations.

METHODS

Using merged hospital administrative data with payment data based on diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) for the year 2013, we descriptively examined nursing home residents who were 65 years of age or older and were admitted to an acute care hospital.

RESULTS

Approximately 42% of all nursing home admissions were due to ACSCs. Payments to Swiss hospitals for ACSCs can be estimated at between 89 and 105 million Swiss francs in 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

A sizable share of hospitalizations for nursing home residents is for ACSCs, and the associated costs are substantial. Programs and policies designed to reduce these potentially avoidable hospitalizations from the nursing home setting could lead to an increased patient well-being and lower costs.

One-year rehospitalisations for congestive heart failure in Portuguese NHS hospitals: a multilevel approach on patterns of use and contributing factors

OBJECTIVES

Identification of rehospitalisations for heart failure and contributing factors flags health policy intervention opportunities designed to deliver care at a most effective and efficient level. Recognising that heart failure is a condition for which timely and appropriate outpatient care can potentially prevent the use of inpatient services, we aimed to determine to what extent comorbidities and material deprivation were predictive of 1 year heart failure specific rehospitalisation.

SETTING

All Portuguese mainland National Health Service (NHS) hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 68 565 hospitalisations for heart failure principal cause of admission, from 2011 to 2015, associated to 45 882 distinct patients aged 18 years old or over.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We defined 1 year specific heart failure rehospitalisation and time to rehospitalisation as outcome measures.

RESULTS

Heart failure principal diagnosis admissions accounted for 1.6% of total hospital NHS budget, and over 40% of this burden is associated to patients rehospitalised at least once in the 365-day follow-up period. 22.1% of the patients hospitalised for a principal diagnosis of heart failure were rehospitalised for the same cause at least once within 365 days after previous discharge. Nearly 55% of rehospitalised patients were readmitted within 3 months. Results suggest a mediation effect between material deprivation and the chance of 1 year rehospitalisation through the effect that material deprivation has on the prevalence of comorbidities. Heart failure combined with chronic kidney disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases by 2.8 and 2.2 times, respectively, the chance of the patient becoming a frequent user of inpatient services for heart failure principal cause of admission.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of patients admitted for heart failure are rehospitalised due to heart failure exacerbation. While the role of material deprivation remained unclear, comorbidities considered increased the chance of 1 year heart failure specific rehospitalisation, in particular, chronic kidney disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Comparative research aspects on hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: the case of Brazil and Portugal

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions have been used to measure access, quality and performance of the primary health care delivery system, as timely and adequate care could potentially avoid the need of hospitalization. Comparative research provides the opportunity for cross-country learning process. Brazil and Portugal have reformed their primary health care services in the last years, with similar organizational characteristics. We used hospitalization data of Brazil and Portugal for the year 2015 to compare hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions between the two countries, and discussed conceptual and methodological aspects to be taken into consideration in the comparative approach. Brazil and Portugal presented similarities in causes and standardized rates of hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. There was great sensitivity on rates according to the methodology employed to define conditions. Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions are important sources of pressure for both Brazil and Portugal, and there are conceptual and methodological aspects that are critical to render the country-comparison approach useful.

Mental well-being, job satisfaction and self-rated workability in general practitioners and hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among listed patients: a cohort study combining survey data on GPs and register data on patients

BACKGROUND

Physicians' work conditions and mental well-being may affect healthcare quality and efficacy. Yet the effects on objective measures of healthcare performance remain understudied. This study examined mental well-being, job satisfaction and self-rated workability in general practitioners (GPs) in relation to hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC-Hs), a register-based quality indicator affected by referral threshold and prevention efforts in primary care.

METHODS

This is an observational study combining data from national registers and a nationwide questionnaire survey among Danish GPs. To ensure precise linkage of each patient with a specific GP, partnership practices were not included. Study cases were 461 376 adult patients listed with 392 GPs. Associations between hospitalisations in the 6-month study period and selected well-being indicators were estimated at the individual patient level and adjusted for GP gender and seniority, list size, and patient factors (comorbidity, sociodemographic characteristics).

RESULTS

The median number of ACSC-Hs per 1000 listed patients was 10.2 (interquartile interval: 7.0-13.7). All well-being indicators were inversely associated with ACSC-Hs, except for perceived stress (not associated). The adjusted incidence rate ratio was 1.26 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.42) for patients listed with GPs in the least favourable category of self-rated workability, and 1.19 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.35), 1.15 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.27) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.27) for patients listed with GPs in the least favourable categories of burn-out, job satisfaction and general well-being (the most favourable categories used as reference). Hospitalisations for conditions not classified as ambulatory care sensitive were not equally associated.

CONCLUSIONS

ACSC-H frequency increased with decreasing levels of GP mental well-being, job satisfaction and self-rated workability. These findings imply that GPs' work conditions and mental well-being may have important implications for individual patients and for healthcare expenditures.

The closer the better: does better access to outpatient care prevent hospitalization?

In 2010-2012, new outpatient service locations were established in poor Hungarian micro-regions. We exploit this quasi-experiment to estimate the extent of substitution between outpatient and inpatient care. Fixed-effects Poisson models on individual-level panel data for years 2008-2015 show that the number of outpatient visits increased by 19% and the number of inpatient stays decreased by 1.6% as a result, driven by a marked reduction of potentially avoidable hospitalization (PAH) (5%). In our dynamic specification, PAH effects occur in the year after the treatment, whereas non-PAH only decreases with a multi-year lag. The instrumental variable estimates suggest that a one euro increase in outpatient care expenditures produces a 0.6 euro decrease in inpatient care expenditures. Our results (1) strengthen the claim that bringing outpatient care closer to a previously underserved population yields considerable health benefits, and (2) suggest that there is a strong substitution element between outpatient and inpatient care.

Using national electronic health care registries for comparing the risk of psychiatric re-hospitalisation in six European countries: Opportunities and limitations

Psychiatric re-hospitalisation rates have been of longstanding interest as health care quality metric for planners and policy makers, but are criticized for not being comparable across hospitals and countries due to measurement unclarities. The objectives of the present study were to explore the interoperability of national electronic routine health care registries of six European countries (Austria, Finland, Italy, Norway, Romania, Slovenia) and, by using variables found to be comparable, to calculate and compare re-hospitalisation rates and the associated risk factors. A "Methods Toolkit" was developed for exploring the interoperability of registry data and protocol led pilot studies were carried out. Problems encountered in this process are described. Using restricted but comparable data sets, up to twofold differences in psychiatric re-hospitalisation rates were found between countries for both a 30- and 365-day follow-up period. Cumulative incidence curves revealed noteworthy additional differences. Health system characteristics are discussed as potential causes for the differences. Multi-level logistic regression analyses showed that younger age and a diagnosis of schizophrenia/mania/bipolar disorder consistently increased the probability of psychiatric re-hospitalisation across countries. It is concluded that the advantage of having large unselected study populations of national electronic health care registries needs to be balanced against the considerable efforts to examine the interoperability of databases in cross-country comparisons.

Regional variation of avoidable hospitalisations in a universal health care system: a register-based cohort study from Finland 1996-2013

OBJECTIVES

A persistent finding in research concerning healthcare and hospital use in Western countries has been regional variation in the medical practices. The aim of the current study was to examine trends in the regional variation of avoidable hospitalisations, that is, hospitalisations due to conditions treatable in ambulatory care in Finland in 1996-2013 and the influence of different healthcare levels on them.

SETTING

Use of hospital inpatient care in 1996-2013 among the total population in Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

Altogether 1 931 012 hospital inpatient care episodes among all persons residing in Finland identified from administrative registers in Finland in 1996-2013 and alive in 1 January 1996.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We examined hospitalisations due to avoidable causes including vaccine-preventable hospitalisations, hospitalisations due to complications of chronic conditions and acute conditions treatable in ambulatory care. We calculated annual age-adjusted rates per 10 000 person-years. Multilevel models were used for studying time trends in regional variation.

RESULTS

There was a steep decline in avoidable hospitalisation rates during the study period. The decline occurred almost exclusively in hospitalisations due to chronic conditions, which diminished by about 60%. The overall correlation between hospital district intercepts and slopes in time was -0.46 (p<0.05) among men and -0.20 (ns) among women. Statistically highly significant diminishing variation was found in hospitalisations due to chronic conditions among both men (-0.90) and women (-0.91). The variation was mainly distributed to the hospital district level.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that chronic conditions are managed better in primary care in the whole country than before. Further research is needed on whether this is the case or whether this has more to do with supply of hospital care.

Optimising pacemaker therapy and medical therapy in pacemaker patients for heart failure: protocol for the OPT-PACE randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Permanent artificial pacemaker implantation is a safe and effective treatment for bradycardia and is associated with extended longevity and improved quality of life. However, the most common long-term complication of standard pacemaker therapy is pacemaker-associated heart failure. Pacemaker follow-up is potentially an opportunity to screen for heart failure to assess and optimise patient devices and medical therapy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is a multicentre, phase-3 randomised trial. The 1200 participants will be people who have a permanent pacemaker for bradycardia for at least 12 months, randomly assigned to undergo a transthoracic echocardiogram with their pacemaker check, thereby tailoring their management directed by left ventricular function or the pacemaker check alone, continuing with routine follow-up. The primary outcome measure is time to all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes include external validation of our risk stratification model to predict onset of heart failure and quality of life assessment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial design and protocol have received national ethical approval (12/YH/0487). The results of this randomised trial will be published in international peer-reviewed journals, communicated to healthcare professionals and patient involvement groups and highlighted using social media campaigns.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01819662.