Impacts of Green Vegetation Fraction Derivation Methods on Regional Climate Simulations

The representation of vegetation in land surface models (LSM) is crucial for modeling atmospheric processes in regional climate models (RCMs). Vegetation is characterized by the green fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and/or the leaf area index (LAI) that are obtained from nearest difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Most regional climate models use a constant FVC for each month and grid cell. In this work, three FVC datasets have been constructed using three methods: ZENG, WETZEL and GUTMAN. These datasets have been implemented in a RCM to explore, through sensitivity experiments over the Iberian Peninsula (IP), the effects of the differences among the FVC data-sets on the near surface temperature (T2m). Firstly, we noted that the selection of the NDVI database is of crucial importance, because there are important bias in mean and variability among them. The comparison between the three methods extracted from the same NDVI database, the global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS), reveals important differences reaching up to 12% in spatial average and and 35% locally. Such differences depend on the FVC magnitude and type of biome. The methods that use the frequency distribution of NDVI (ZENG and GUTMAN) are more similar, and the differences mainly depends on the land type. The comparison of the RCM experiments exhibits a not negligible effect of the FVC uncertainty on the monthly T2m values. Differences of 30% in FVC can produce bias of 1 ∘ C in monthly T2m, although they depend on the time of the year. Therefore, the selection of a certain FVC dataset will introduce bias in T2m and will affect the annual cycle. On the other hand, fixing a FVC database, the use of synchronized FVC instead of climatological values produces differences up to 1 ∘ C, that will modify the T2m interannual variability.

On the Use of NLDAS2 Weather Data for Hydrologic Modeling in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Weather data are the key forces that drive hydrological processes so that their accuracy in watershed modeling is fundamentally important. For large-scale watershed modeling, weather data are either generated by using interpolation methods or derived from assimilated datasets. In the present study, we compared model performances of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), as driven by interpolation weather data, and NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase Two (NLDAS2) weather dataset in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The SWAT model fed with different weather datasets were used to simulate monthly stream flow at 11 United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring stations in the UMRB. Model performances were evaluated based on three metrics: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), and percent bias (Pbias). The results show that, after calibration, the SWAT model compared well at all monitoring stations for monthly stream flow using different weather datasets indicating that the SWAT model can adequately produce long-term water yield in UMRB. The results also show that using NLDAS2 weather dataset can improve SWAT prediction of monthly stream flow with less prediction uncertainty in the UMRB. We concluded that NLDAS2 dataset could be used by the SWAT model for large-scale watersheds like UMRB as a surrogate of the interpolation weather data. Further analyses results show that NLDAS2 daily solar radiation data was about 2.5 MJ m−2 higher than the interpolation data. As such, the SWAT model driven by NLDAS2 dataset tended to underestimate stream flow in the UMRB due to the overestimation in evapotranspiration in uncalibrated conditions. Thus, the implication of overestimated solar radiation by NLDAS2 dataset should be considered before using NLDAS2 dataset to drive the hydrological model.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (WRF-ACI): Development, Evaluation, and Initial Application

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (WRF-ACI) is developed for studying aerosol effects on gridscale and subgrid-scale clouds using common aerosol activation and ice nucleation formulations and double-moment cloud microphysics in a scale-aware subgrid-scale parameterization scheme. Comparisons of both the standard WRF and WRF-ACI models' results for a summer season against satellite and reanalysis estimates show that the WRF-ACI system improves the simulation of cloud liquid and ice water paths. Correlation coefficients for nearly all evaluated parameters are improved, while other variables show slight degradation. Results indicate a strong cloud lifetime effect from current climatological aerosols increasing domain average cloud liquid water path and reducing domain average precipitation as compared to a simulation with aerosols reduced by 90%. Increased cloud-top heights indicate a thermodynamic invigoration effect, but the impact of thermodynamic invigoration on precipitation is overwhelmed by the cloud lifetime effect. A combination of cloud lifetime and cloud albedo effects increases domain average shortwave cloud forcing by ~3.0 W m^-2. Subgrid-scale clouds experience a stronger response to aerosol levels, while gridscale clouds are subject to thermodynamic feedbacks because of the design of the WRF modeling framework. The magnitude of aerosol indirect effects is shown to be sensitive to the choice of autoconversion parameterization used in both the gridscale and subgrid-scale cloud microphysics, but spatial patterns remain qualitatively similar. These results indicate that the WRF-ACI model provides the community with a computationally efficient tool for exploring aerosol-cloud interactions.

Impact of Large-Scale Afforestation on Surface Temperature: A Case Study in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia Based on the WRF Model

Afforestation activities in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia, China, have substantially increased tree and shrub coverage in this region. In this study, the response of the surface temperature to afforestation is simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The surface temperature changes are decomposed into contributions from the intrinsic surface biophysical effect and atmospheric feedback, using the theory of intrinsic biophysical mechanism. The effect of afforestation on the surface temperature is 1.34 K, −0.48 K, 2.09 K and 0.22 K for the summer daytime, the summer nighttime, the winter daytime and the winter nighttime, respectively, for the grid cells that have experienced conversion from bare soil to shrub. The corresponding domain mean values are 0.15 K, −0.2 K, 0.67 K, and 0.06 K. The seasonal variation of surface temperature change is mainly caused by changes in roughness and Bowen ratio. In the daytime, the surface temperature changes are dominated by the biophysical effect, with albedo change being the main biophysical factor. In the nighttime, the biophysical effect (mainly associated with roughness change) and the atmospheric feedback (mainly associated with change in the background air temperature) contribute similar amounts to the surface temperature changes. We conclude that the atmospheric feedback can amplify the influence of the surface biophysical effect, especially in the nighttime.

Impact of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillations on the Heavy Rainfall Events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu Season

During May and June (the Meiyu season) of 2017, Taiwan was affected by three heavy frontal rainfall events, which led to large economic losses. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the impact of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillations (BSISOs, including a 30–60 day ISO mode named BSISO1 and a 10–30 day ISO mode named BSISO2) on the heavy rainfall events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season. Our examinations show that BSISO2 is more important than BSISO1 in determining the formation of heavy rainfall events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season. The heavy rainfall events generally formed in Taiwan at phases 4–6 of BSISO2, when the enhanced southwesterly wind and moisture flux convergence center propagate northward into the Taiwan area. In addition, we examined the forecast rainfall data (at lead times of one day to 16 days) obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEPgfs) and the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Forecast System (CWBgfs). Our results show that the better the model’s capability in forecasting the BSISO2 index is, the better the model’s capability in forecasting the timing of rainfall formation in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season is. These findings highlight the importance of BSISO2 in affecting the rainfall characteristics in East Asia during the Meiyu season.

Uncertainties in Evapotranspiration Estimates over West Africa

An evapotranspiration (ET) ensemble composed of 36 land surface model (LSM) experiments and four diagnostic datasets (GLEAM, ALEXI, MOD16, and FLUXNET) is used to investigate uncertainties in ET estimate over five climate regions in West Africa. Diagnostic ET datasets show lower uncertainty estimates and smaller seasonal variations than the LSM-based ET values, particularly in the humid climate regions. Overall, the impact of the choice of LSMs and meteorological forcing datasets on the modeled ET rates increases from north to south. The LSM formulations and parameters have the largest impact on ET in humid regions, contributing to 90% of the ET uncertainty estimates. Precipitation contributes to the ET uncertainty primarily in arid regions. The LSM-based ET estimates are sensitive to the uncertainty of net radiation in arid region and precipitation in humid region. This study serves as support for better determining water availability for agriculture and livelihoods in Africa with earth observations and land surface models.

Spatial Characteristics of Deep-Developed Boundary Layers and Numerical Simulation Applicability over Arid and Semi-Arid Regions in Northwest China

The spatial distribution and long-time variation of the deep-developed boundary layer are not well understood in arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China. ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis data, ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) were used to study the deep-developed boundary layer in the five representative areas in summer and then the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model was applied to simulate and verify its applicability. The results show that the boundary layer heights in the five representative areas are higher in late spring and summer (the highest is 2485~3502 m in June) and lower in autumn, winter and early spring (the lowest is 758~907 m in December). The seasonal variations of the boundary layer height are smaller at 02:00 BJT and 08:00 BJT, while the variations are relatively larger at 14:00 BJT and 20:00 BJT. The atmospheric boundary layer, with heights over 4000 m, generally exists in late spring and summer. The boundary layer heights are higher in the arid region than in the semi-arid region and the deep-developed boundary layer lasts longer in the arid region. The boundary layer heights present reductions from the northwest to the southeast, except for Minqin in the middle north. The numerical simulation results show that there is a significant difference between different combinations of parameterization schemes to simulate the deep-developed boundary layer in these areas. The combination Goddard+SLAB+ACM2 performs better in the extreme arid area, Dunhuang, and the arid areas, Jiuquan and Minqin, whereas the simulation effect of the combination Dudhia+Noah+ACM2 is better in the semi-arid areas, Yuzhong and Lanzhou. The difference between the schemes is related to the determination of the boundary layer height.

Multiscale Applications of Two Online-Coupled Meteorology-Chemistry Models during Recent Field Campaigns in Australia, Part I: Model Description and WRF/Chem-ROMS Evaluation Using Surface and Satellite Data and Sensitivity to Spatial Grid Resolutions

Air pollution and associated human exposure are important research areas in Greater Sydney, Australia. Several field campaigns were conducted to characterize the pollution sources and their impacts on ambient air quality including the Sydney Particle Study Stages 1 and 2 (SPS1 and SPS2), and the Measurements of Urban, Marine, and Biogenic Air (MUMBA). In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF/Chem) and the coupled WRF/Chem with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) (WRF/Chem-ROMS) are applied during these field campaigns to assess the models’ capability in reproducing atmospheric observations. The model simulations are performed over quadruple-nested domains at grid resolutions of 81-, 27-, 9-, and 3-km over Australia, an area in southeastern Australia, an area in New South Wales, and the Greater Sydney area, respectively. A comprehensive model evaluation is conducted using surface observations from these field campaigns, satellite retrievals, and other data. This paper evaluates the performance of WRF/Chem-ROMS and its sensitivity to spatial grid resolutions. The model generally performs well at 3-, 9-, and 27-km resolutions for sea-surface temperature and boundary layer meteorology in terms of performance statistics, seasonality, and daily variation. Moderate biases occur for temperature at 2-m and wind speed at 10-m in the mornings and evenings due to the inaccurate representation of the nocturnal boundary layer and surface heat fluxes. Larger underpredictions occur for total precipitation due to the limitations of the cloud microphysics scheme or cumulus parameterization. The model performs well at 3-, 9-, and 27-km resolutions for surface O3 in terms of statistics, spatial distributions, and diurnal and daily variations. The model underpredicts PM2.5 and PM10 during SPS1 and MUMBA but overpredicts PM2.5 and underpredicts PM10 during SPS2. These biases are attributed to inaccurate meteorology, precursor emissions, insufficient SO2 conversion to sulfate, inadequate dispersion at finer grid resolutions, and underprediction in secondary organic aerosol. The model gives moderate biases for net shortwave radiation and cloud condensation nuclei but large biases for other radiative and cloud variables. The performance of aerosol optical depth and latent/sensible heat flux varies for different simulation periods. Among all variables evaluated, wind speed at 10-m, precipitation, surface concentrations of CO, NO, NO2, SO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10, aerosol optical depth, cloud optical thickness, cloud condensation nuclei, and column NO2 show moderate-to-strong sensitivity to spatial grid resolutions. The use of finer grid resolutions (3- or 9-km) can generally improve the performance for those variables. While the performance for most of these variables is consistent with that over the U.S. and East Asia, several differences along with future work are identified to pinpoint reasons for such differences.

Sensitivity of Low-Level Jets to Land-Use and Land-Cover Change over the Continental U.S

Lower-tropospheric wind maxima, known as low-level jets (LLJs), play a vital role in weather and climate around the world. In this study, two 10-year (2006–2015) regional climate simulations using current (2011) and future (2100) land-use/land-cover (LULC) patterns over the continental United States (CONUS) are used to assess the sensitivity of LLJ properties, including jet occurrence, maximum speed, and the elevation of the maximum, to changes in LULC. The three simulated LLJ properties exhibit greater sensitivity in summer than in winter. Summertime jets are projected to increase in frequency in the central CONUS, where cropland replaces grassland, and decrease in parts of the Ohio-River Valley and the Southeast, particularly Florida, where urban expansion occurs. Little change is projected for wintertime jet frequency. Larger modifications to jet speed and elevations are projected in parts of the Ohio River Valley, the upper Southeast, and the Intermountain West. While there is some evidence of weaker, more elevated jets with urban expansion, the connection between changes in jet speed and elevation and changes in LULC patterns at a given location is weak. This result suggests that LULC will primarily affect the large-scale atmospheric conditions that contribute to the formation of LLJs, particularly in winter.

Determinants of the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration

A widely used approach for estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in hydrological and earth system models is to constrain potential evapotranspiration (PET) with a single empirical stress factor (Ω = AET/PET). Ω represents the water availability and is fundamentally linked to canopy-atmosphere coupling. However, the mean and seasonal variability of Ω in the models have rarely been evaluated against observations, and the model performances for different climates and biomes remain unclear. In this study, we first derived the observed Ω from 28 FLUXNET sites over North America during 2000-2007, which was then used to evaluate Ω in six large-scale model-based datasets. Our results confirm the importance of incorporating canopy height in the formulation of aerodynamic conductance in the case of forests. Furthermore, leaf area index (LAI) is central to the prediction of Ω and can be quantitatively linked to the partitioning between transpiration and soil evaporation (R²  = 0.43). The substantial differences between observed and model-based Ω in forests (range: 0.2~0.9) are highly related to the way these models estimated PET and the way they represented the responses of Ω to the environmental drivers, especially wind speed and LAI. This is the first assessment of Ω in models based on in situ observations. Our findings demonstrate that the observed Ω is useful for evaluating, validating, and optimizing the modeling of AET and thus of water and energy balances.

Evaluation of physical parameterizations for atmospheric river induced precipitation and application to long-term reconstruction based on three reanalysis datasets in Western Oregon

Dynamically downscaled precipitation is often used for evaluating sub-daily precipitation behavior on a watershed-scale and for the input to hydrological modeling because of its increasing accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution. Despite these advantages, physical parameterizations in regional models and systematic biases due to the dataset used for boundary conditions greatly influence the quality of downscaled precipitation data. The present paper aims to evaluate the performance and the sensitivities of physical parameterizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the Willamette watershed in Oregon. Also investigated was whether the optimized WRF configuration for extreme events can be used for long-term reconstruction using different boundary condition datasets. Three reanalysis datasets, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which have different spatial resolutions and dataset periods, were used to simulate precipitation at 4 km resolution. Sensitivity analyses showed that AR precipitation is most sensitive to the microphysics parameterization. Among 13 microphysics schemes investigated, the Goddard and the Stony-Brook University schemes performed the best regardless of the choice of reanalysis. Reconstructed historical precipitation with the optimized configuration showed better accuracies during the wet season than the dry season. With respect to simulations with CFSR, it was found that the optimized configuration for AR precipitation can be used for long-term reconstruction with small biases. However, systematic biases in the reanalysis datasets may still lead to uncertainties in downscaling precipitation in a different season with a single configuration.

Correlation Analysis Between Groundwater Decline Trend and Human-Induced Factors in Bashang Region

In Northern China, many regions and cities are located in semi-arid regions, and groundwater is even the only source of water to support human survival and social development. Affected by human activities, the Bashang (BS) region (including Zhangjiakou City and part of Xilin Gol League) have showed a significant decline in groundwater levels in recent years. However, in the BS region, the causes for the decline in groundwater level were not clear. In this study, we used time series of multi-source data Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to analyze vegetation and groundwater changes based on linear regression models. The variation trends of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, derived from MODIS) and GWSA (groundwater storage anomaly, derived from GRACE and GLDAS) indicated the increasingly better vegetation in the agriculture planting areas, partially degraded vegetation in the grassland, and the declining groundwater level in the whole study region. In order to assess the impact of human-induced factors on vegetation and groundwater, the R U E s e a s o n a l calculation model was proposed based on RUE (rain use efficiency) in this study. The R U E s e a s o n a l calculation results showed that human-induced factors promoted the growth of vegetation in agricultural areas and accelerated the consumption of groundwater. In addition, we also obtained temporal and spatial distributions of human activities-affected regions. The area affected by human-induced factors in the south-central study area increased, which accelerated the decline in groundwater levels. From bulletin data, we found that the increasing tourists and vegetable production are respectively the most important factors for the increased consumption of urban water and agricultural water. Based on multi-source data, the influences of various human-induced factors on the ecological environment were explored and the area affected by human-induced factors was estimated. The results provide the valuable guidance for water resource management departments. In the BS region, it is necessary to regulate agricultural water use and strengthen residential water management.

Modeling of GRACE-Derived Groundwater Information in the Colorado River Basin

Groundwater depletion has been one of the major challenges in recent years. Analysis of groundwater levels can be beneficial for groundwater management. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s twin satellite, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), serves in monitoring terrestrial water storage. Increasing freshwater demand amidst recent drought (2000–2014) posed a significant groundwater level decline within the Colorado River Basin (CRB). In the current study, a non-parametric technique was utilized to analyze historical groundwater variability. Additionally, a stochastic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was developed and tested to forecast the GRACE-derived groundwater anomalies within the CRB. The ARIMA model was trained with the GRACE data from January 2003 to December of 2013 and validated with GRACE data from January 2014 to December of 2016. Groundwater anomaly from January 2017 to December of 2019 was forecasted with the tested model. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots were drawn to identify and construct the seasonal ARIMA models. ARIMA order for each grid was evaluated based on Akaike’s and Bayesian information criterion. The error analysis showed the reasonable numerical accuracy of selected seasonal ARIMA models. The proposed models can be used to forecast groundwater variability for sustainable groundwater planning and management.

A comprehensive analysis of interseasonal and interannual energy and water balance dynamics in semiarid shrubland and forest ecosystems

Accurate estimation of ecosystem-scale land surface energy and water balance has great importance in weather and climate studies. This paper summarizes seasonal and interannual fluctuations of energy and water balance components in two distinctive semiarid ecosystems, sagebrush (SB) and lodgepole pine (LP) in the Snake River basin of Idaho. This study includes 6 years (2011-2016) of eddy covariance (EC) along with modeled estimates. An analysis of the energy balance indicated a higher energy balance ratio (0.88) for SB than for LP (0.86). The inclusion of canopy storage (C_S) increased the association between turbulent fluxes and available energy in LP. Green vegetation fraction (GVF) significantly controlled evapotranspiration (ET) and surface energy partitioning when available energy and soil moisture were not limited. Seasonal water balance in the Budyko framework showed severe water-limited conditions in SB (6-9 months) compared to LP (6-7 months). Based on the validated Noah land surface model estimates, direct soil evaporation (E_Soil) is the main component of ET (62 to 79%) in SB due to a large proportion of bare soil (60%), whereas at the lodgepole pine site, it was transpiration (E_Tran, 42-52%). A complementary ratio (CR) analysis on ET and potential ET (PET) showed a strong asymmetric CR in SB, indicating significant advection. Both SG and LP showed strong coupling between soil moisture (SM) and air temperature (T_a). However, a weak coupling was observed in SB when the soil was dry and T_a was high. This weak coupling was due to the presence of net advection. The results presented here have a wider application: to help us understand and predict the survival, productivity, and hydroclimatology of water-limited ecosystems.

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variability of Evapotranspiration and Its Governing Factors in a Mountainous Watershed

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance, which influences hydrometeorology, water resources, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem diversity. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ET at the East River watershed in Colorado and analyze the factors that control these variations. ET was acquired using the community land model (CLM) simulations and was compared with the values estimated using Fu’s equation and a watershed-scale water balance equation. The simulation results showed that 55% of annual precipitation in the East River is lost to ET, in which 75% of the ET comes from the summer months (May to September). We also found that the contribution of transpiration to the total ET was ~50%, which is much larger than that of soil evaporation (32%) and canopy evaporation (18%). Spatial analysis indicated that the ET is greater at elevations of 2950–3200 m and lower along the river valley (<2750 m) and at the high elevations (>3900 m). A correlation analysis of factors affecting ET showed that the land elevation, air temperature, and vegetation are closely correlated and together they govern the ET spatial variability. The results also suggested that ET in areas with more finely textured soil is slightly larger than regions with coarse-texture soil. This study presents a promising approach to the assessment of ET with a high spatiotemporal resolution over watershed scales and investigates factors controlling ET spatiotemporal variations.

Updates to the Noah Land Surface Model in WRF-CMAQ to Improve Simulated Meteorology, Air Quality, and Deposition

Regional, state, and local environmental regulatory agencies often use Eulerian models to investigate the potential impacts on pollutant deposition and air quality from changes in land use, anthropogenic and natural emissions, and climate. The Noah land surface model (LSM) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is widely used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for such investigations, but there are many inconsistencies that need to be changed so that they are consistent with dry deposition and emission processes. In this work, the Noah LSM in WRFv3.8.1 is improved in its linkage to CMAQv5.2 by adding important parameters to the WRF/Noah output, updating the WRF soil and vegetation reference tables that influence CMAQ wet and dry photochemical deposition processes, and decreasing WRF/Noah's top soil layer depth to be consistent with CMAQ processes (e.g., windblown dust and bidirectional ammonia exchange). The modified WRF/Noah-CMAQ system (both off-line and coupled) impacts meteorological predictions of 2-m temperature (T2; increases and decreases), 2-m mixing ratio (Q2; decreases), and 10-m wind speed (WSPD10; decreases) in the United States. These changes are mostly driven by leaf area index values and aerodynamic roughness lengths updated in the vegetation tables based on satellite data, with additional impacts from soil tables updated based on recent soil data. Improvements in the consistency in the treatment of land surface processes between CMAQ and WRF resulted in improvements in both estimated meteorological (e.g., T2, WSPD10, and latent heat fluxes) and chemical (e.g., ozone, sulfur dioxide, and windblown dust) model estimates.

Updates to the Noah Land Surface Model in WRF-CMAQ to Improve Simulated Meteorology, Air Quality, and Deposition

Regional, state, and local environmental regulatory agencies often use Eulerian models to investigate the potential impacts on pollutant deposition and air quality from changes in land use, anthropogenic and natural emissions, and climate. The Noah land surface model (LSM) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is widely used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for such investigations, but there are many inconsistencies that need to be changed so that they are consistent with dry deposition and emission processes. In this work, the Noah LSM in WRFv3.8.1 is improved in its linkage to CMAQv5.2 by adding important parameters to the WRF/Noah output, updating the WRF soil and vegetation reference tables that influence CMAQ wet and dry photochemical deposition processes, and decreasing WRF/Noah's top soil layer depth to be consistent with CMAQ processes (e.g., windblown dust and bidirectional ammonia exchange). The modified WRF/Noah-CMAQ system (both off-line and coupled) impacts meteorological predictions of 2-m temperature (T2; increases and decreases), 2-m mixing ratio (Q2; decreases), and 10-m wind speed (WSPD10; decreases) in the United States. These changes are mostly driven by leaf area index values and aerodynamic roughness lengths updated in the vegetation tables based on satellite data, with additional impacts from soil tables updated based on recent soil data. Improvements in the consistency in the treatment of land surface processes between CMAQ and WRF resulted in improvements in both estimated meteorological (e.g., T2, WSPD10, and latent heat fluxes) and chemical (e.g., ozone, sulfur dioxide, and windblown dust) model estimates.

Impact of a Narrow Coastal Bay of Bengal Sea Surface Temperature Front on an Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation

A dry bias in climatological Central Indian rainfall plagues Indian summer monsoon (ISM) simulations in multiple generations of climate models. Here, using observations and regional climate modeling, we focus on a warm coastal Bay of Bengal sea surface temperature (SST) front and its impact on Central Indian rainfall. The SST front, featuring sharp gradients as large as 0.5 °C/100 km, is colocated with a mixed layer depth (MLD) front, in a region where salinity variations are known to control MLD. Regional climate simulations coupling a regional atmospheric model with an ocean mixed layer model are performed. A simulation with observed MLD climatology reproduces SST, rainfall, and atmospheric circulation associated with ISM reasonably well; it also eliminates the dry bias over Central India significantly. Perturbing MLD structure in the simulations, we isolate the SST front’s impact on the simulated ISM climate state. This experiment offers insights into ISM climatological biases in the coupled NCEP Climate Forecast System version-2. We suggest that the warm SST front is essential to Central Indian rainfall as it helps to sustain deep and intense convection in its vicinity, which may be a source for the vortex cores seeding the monsoon low-pressure systems.

Estimating Soil Evaporation Using Drying Rates Determined from Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Records

We describe an approach (ESMAP; Evaporation–Soil Moisture Active Passive) to estimate direct evaporation from soil, Esoil, by combining remotely-sensed soil drying rates with model calculations of the vertical fluxes in and out of the surface soil layer. Improved knowledge of Esoil can serve as a constraint in how total evapotranspiration is partitioned. The soil drying rates used here are based on SMAP data, but the method could be applied to data from other sensors. We present results corresponding to ten SMAP pixels in North America to evaluate the method. The ESMAP method was applied to intervals between successive SMAP overpasses with limited precipitation (<2 mm) to avoid uncertainty associated with precipitation, infiltration, and runoff. We used the Hydrus 1-D model to calculate the flux of water across the bottom boundary of the 0 to 50 mm soil layer sensed by SMAP, qbot. During dry intervals, qbot typically transfers water upwards into the surface soil layer from below, usually <0.5 mm day−1. Based on a standard formulation, transpiration from the surface soil layer, ET_s, is usually < 0.1 mm day−1, and, thus, generally not an important flux. Soil drying rates (converted to equivalent water thickness) are typically between 0 and 1 mm day−1. Evaporation is almost always greater than soil drying rates because qbot is typically a source of water to the surface soil and ET_s is negligible. Evaporation is typically between 0 and 1.5 mm day−1, with the highest values following rainfall. Soil evaporation summed over SMAP overpass intervals with precipitation <2 mm (60% of days) accounts for 15% of total precipitation. If evaporation rates are similar during overpasses with substantial precipitation, then the total evaporation flux would account for ~25% of precipitation. ESMAP could be used over spatially continuous domains to provide constraints on Esoil, but model-based Esoil would be required during intervals with substantial precipitation.

Spatial and temporal variability of root-zone soil moisture acquired from hydrologic modeling and AirMOSS P-band radar

The accurate estimation of grid-scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon requires consideration of sub-grid spatial variability in root-zone soil moisture (RZSM). The NASA Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface (AirMOSS) mission represents the first systematic attempt to repeatedly map high-resolution RZSM fields using airborne remote sensing across a range of biomes. Here we compare 3-arc-sec (~100-m) spatial resolution AirMOSS RZSM retrievals from P-band radar acquisitions over 9 separate North American study sites with analogous RZSM estimates generated by the Flux-Penn State Hydrology Model (Flux-PIHM). The two products demonstrate comparable levels of accuracy when evaluated against ground-based soil moisture products and a significant level of temporal cross-correlation. However, relative to the AirMOSS RZSM retrievals, Flux-PIHM RZSM estimates generally demonstrate much lower levels of spatial and temporal variability, and the spatial patterns captured by both products are poorly correlated. Nevertheless, based on a discussion of likely error sources affecting both products, it is argued that the spatial analysis of AirMOSS and Flux-PIHM RZSM fields provide meaningful upper and lower bounds on the potential range of RZSM spatial variability encountered across a range of natural biomes.

Winds and Gusts during the Thomas Fire

We analyze observed and simulated winds and gusts occurring before, during, and immediately after the ignition of the Thomas fire of December 2017. This fire started in Ventura county during a record-long Santa Ana wind event from two closely located but independent ignitions and grew to become (briefly) the largest by area burned in modern California history. Observations placed wind gusts as high as 35 m/s within 40 km of the ignition sites, but stations much closer to them reported much lower speeds. Our analysis of these records indicate these low wind reports (especially from cooperative “CWOP” stations) are neither reliable nor representative of conditions at the fire origin sites. Model simulations verified against available better quality observations indicate downslope wind conditions existed that placed the fastest winds on the lee slope locations where the fires are suspected to have started. A crude gust estimate suggests winds as fast as 32 m/s occurred at the time of the first fire origin, with higher speeds attained later.

Spatio-temporal variations in SO2 and NO2 emissions caused by heating over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region constrained by an adaptive nudging method with OMI data

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China suffers from heavy air pollution, especially in heating period. SO₂ and NO₂ are two of the key primary gaseous pollutants emitted by coal burning. The increase in air pollution caused by heating in the south-central part of the BTH region is higher than that in the northern part. And the distribution of SO₂ and NO₂ increment has significant differences. In this work, SO₂ and NO₂ emissions over the BTH region are determined using an adaptive "nudging" constrained method and a variational processing technique based on Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite data and surface measurement data collected in 2015. The application of the method can provide reliable, up-to-date and high-resolution mapping of sources of SO₂ and NO₂ emissions. These SO₂ and NO₂ emissions reflect the spatial differences in point and area sources in urban agglomerations and rural areas under different meteorological conditions during the non-heating and heating seasons. The intensity and influence of SO₂ and NO₂ emissions, particularly those of SO₂, are significantly greater during the heating season than those during the non-heating season. Winter increases in SO₂ emissions in the northern areas of the BTH region are larger than those in the southern part. In addition, significant increases in SO₂ emissions occur mainly in suburban and rural areas, while those of NO₂ emissions mainly occur in urban agglomerations. In the major urban areas, where coal has been replaced by natural gas or electric power for heating, winter heating causes much smaller increases in SO₂ emissions than in other areas. The large amounts of bulk coal consumption in the suburban and rural areas could cause significant regional air pollution. Clear increases in SO₂ and NO₂ emissions in winter occur along a belt from southern Beijing to Langfang, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, which is consistent with a special "quasi-steady" air pollutant transport belt in the region. All above results show that the adaptive "nudging" constrained emission method could be an effective tool for air pollution control during certain seasons.

Extreme Drought Events over the Amazon Basin: The Perspective from the Reconstruction of South American Hydroclimate

The Amazon basin has experienced severe drought events for centuries, mainly associated with climate variability connected to tropical North Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature anomalous warming. Recently, these events are becoming more frequent, more intense and widespread. Because of the Amazon droughts environmental and socioeconomic impacts, there is an increased demand for understanding the characteristics of such extreme events in the region. In that regard, regional models instead of the general circulation models provide a promising strategy to generate more detailed climate information of extreme events, seeking better representation of physical processes. Due to uneven spatial distribution and gaps found in station data in tropical South America, and the need of more refined climate assessment in those regions, satellite-enhanced regional downscaling for applied studies (SRDAS) is used in the reconstruction of South American hydroclimate, with hourly to monthly outputs from January 1998. Accordingly, this research focuses on the analyses of recent extreme drought events in the years of 2005 and 2010 in the Amazon Basin, using the SRDAS monthly means of near-surface temperature and relative humidity, precipitation and vertically integrated soil moisture fields. Results from this analysis corroborate spatial and temporal patterns found in previous studies on extreme drought events in the region, displaying the distinctive features of the 2005 and 2010 drought events.

Evaluation of Simulated Snow and Snowmelt Timing in the Community Land Model Using Satellite-based Products and Streamflow Observations

The purpose of this study was to evaluate snow and snowmelt simulated by version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). We performed uncoupled CLM4 simulations, forced by Modem-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Land-only (MERRA-Land) meteorological fields. GlobSnow snow cover fraction (SCF), snow water equivalent (SWE) and satellite-based passive microwave (PMW) snowmelt-off day of year (MoD) data were used to evaluate SCF, SWE, and snowmelt simulations. Simulated runoff was then fed into a river routing scheme and evaluation was performed at 408 snow-dominated catchments using gauge observations. CLM4 and GlobSnow snow cover extent showed a strong agreement, especially during the peak snow cover months. Overall there was a good correlation between simulated and observed SWE (correlation coefficient, R = 0.6). Simulated and observed SWE were similar over areas with relatively flat terrain and moderate forest density. The simulated MoD agreed (MoD differences (CLM4-PMW) = +/-7 days) with observations over 39.4% of the study domain. Snowmelt-off occurred earlier in the model compared to the observations over 39.5 % of the domain and later over 21.1% of the domain. Large differences of MoD were seen in the areas with complex terrain and dense forest cover. We also found that, although streamflow seasonal phase was accurately modeled (R=0.9), the peaks controlled by snowmelt were underestimated. Routed CLM4 streamflow tended to occur early (by 10 days on average).

Assessing the feasibility of using produced water for irrigation in Colorado

The Colorado Water Plan estimates as much as 0.8 million irrigated acres may dry up statewide from agricultural to municipal and industrial transfers. To help mitigate this loss, new sources of water are being explored in Colorado. One such source may be produced water. Oil and gas production in 2016 alone produced over 300 million barrels of produced water. Currently, the most common method of disposal of produced water is deep well injection, which is costly and has been shown to cause induced seismicity. Treating this water to agricultural standards eliminates the need to dispose of this water and provides a new source of water. This research explores which counties in Colorado may be best suited to reusing produced water for agriculture based on a combined index of need, quality of produced water, and quantity of produced water. The volumetric impact of using produced water for agricultural needs is determined for the top six counties. Irrigation demand is obtained using evapotranspiration estimates from a range of methods, including remote sensing products and ground-based observations. The economic feasibility of treating produced water to irrigation standards is also determined using an integrated decision selection tool (iDST). We find that produced water can make a substantial volumetric impact on irrigation demand in some counties. Results from the iDST indicate that while costs of treating produced water are higher than the cost of injection into private disposal wells, the costs are much less than disposal into commercial wells. The results of this research may aid in the transition between viewing produced water as a waste product and using it as a tool to help secure water for the arid west.

A comparative study of available water in the major river basins of the world

Numerous large river basins of the world have few and irregular observations of the components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle with the exception of stream gauges at a few locations and at the outlet along with sparsely distributed rain gauges. Using observations from satellite sensors and output from global land surface models, it is possible to study these under-observed river basins. With populations greater than a billion people, some of these rivers (e.g., the Ganga-Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Nile and the Mekong) are the economic engines of the countries they transect, yet thorough assessment of their flow dynamics and variability in regard to water resource management is still lacking. In this paper, we use soil moisture (0-2m) and surface runoff from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), evapotranspiration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and total water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine variability of individual water balance components. To this end, understanding the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and the spatial variability of the water balance components in the major river basins of the world will help to plan for improved management of water resources for the future.

Global Investigation of Soil Moisture and Latent Heat Flux Coupling Strength

As a key variable in the climate system, soil moisture (SM) plays a central role in the earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles through its coupling with surface latent heat flux (LH). Despite the need to accurately represent SM/LH coupling in earth system models, we currently lack quantitative, observation-based, and unbiased estimates of its strength. Here, we utilize the triple collocation (TC) approach introduced in Crow et al. (2015) to SM and LH products obtained from multiple satellite remote sensing platforms and land surface models (LSMs) to obtain unbiased global maps of SM/LH coupling strength. Results demonstrate that, relative to coupling strength estimates acquired directly from remote sensing-based datasets, the application of TC generally enhances estimates of warm-season SM/LH coupling, especially in the western United States, the Sahel, Central Asia, and Australia. However, relative to triple collocation estimates, LSMs (still) over-predict SM/LH coupling strength along transitional climate regimes between wet and dry climates, such as the central Great Plains of North America, India, and coastal Australia. Specific climate zones with biased relations in LSMs are identified to geographically focus the re-examination of LSM parameterizations. TC-based coupling strength estimates are robust to our choice of LSM contributing SM and LH products to the TC analysis. Given their robustness, TC-based coupling strength estimates can serve as an objective benchmark for investigating model predicted SM/LH coupling.

Modeling regional pollution transport events during KORUS-AQ: Progress and challenges in improving representation of land-atmosphere feedbacks

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating soil moisture data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) on short-term regional weather and air quality modeling in East Asia during the Korea-US Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) airborne campaign. SMAP data are assimilated into the Noah land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter approach in the Land Information System framework, which is semi-coupled with the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (NUWRF-Chem). With SMAP assimilation included, water vapor and carbon monoxide (CO) transport from northern-central China transitional climate zones to South Korea is better represented in NUWRF-Chem during two studied pollution events. Influenced by different synoptic conditions and emission patterns, impact of SMAP assimilation on modeled CO in South Korea is intense (>30 ppbv) during one event and less significant (<8 ppbv) during the other. SMAP assimilation impact on air quality modeling skill is complicated by other error sources such as the chemical initial and boundary conditions (IC/LBC) and emission inputs of NUWRF-Chem. Using a satellite-observation-constrained chemical IC/LBC instead of a free-running, coarser-resolution chemical IC/LBC reduces modeled CO by up to 80 ppbv over South Korea. Consequently, CO performance is improved in the middle-upper troposphere whereas degraded in the lower troposphere. Remaining negative CO biases result largely from the emissions inputs. The advancements in land surface modeling and chemical IC/LBC presented here are expected to benefit future investigations on constraining emissions using observations, which can in turn enable more accurate assessments of SMAP assimilation and chemical IC/LBC impacts.

An explicit method of mesoscale convective storm prediction for the central region of Russia

Abstract. This work presents simulation results of the storm observed on the 13–14 July 2016 over the Central region of Russia. The Cumulonimbus cloud (Cb) electrification model coupled with the numerical weather prediction model WRF-ARW were used for this study. The prognostic values of the electric field magnitude were compared with observations. Forecast scores were obtained. The results show that the proposed approach of explicit modelling of the electric field is applicable to short-term forecasting of intense convection and passage tracking of storms. Obtaining varying values of the electric field could help to identify the diversity of hazardous weather phenomena associated with convection.

Substantial impacts of landscape changes on summer climate with major regional differences: The case of China

China's rapid socioeconomic development during the past few decades has resulted in large-scale landscape changes across the country. However, the impacts of these land surface modifications on climate are yet to be adequately understood. Using a coupled process-based land-atmospheric model, therefore, we quantified the climatic effects of land cover and land management changes over mainland China from 2001 to 2010, via incorporation of real-time and high-quality satellite-derived landscape representation (i.e., vegetation fraction, leaf area index, and albedo) into numerical modeling. Our results show that differences in landscape patterns due to changes in land cover and land management have exerted a strong influence on summer climate in China. During 2001 and 2010, extensive cooling of up to 1.5°C was found in the Loess Plateau and 1.0°C in northeastern China. In contrast, regional-scale warming was detected in the Tibetan Plateau (0.3°C), Yunnan province (0.4°C), and rapidly expanding urban centers across China (as high as 2°C). Summer precipitation decreased in the northeastern region, with patchy reduction generally <1.8mm/day, but increased in the Loess Plateau, with local spikes up to 2.4mm/day. Our study highlights that human alterations of landscapes have had substantial impacts on summer climate over the entire mainland China, but these impacts varied greatly on the regional scale, including changes in opposite directions. Therefore, effective national-level policies and regional land management strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation should take explicit account of the spatial heterogeneity of landscape-climate interactions.

Exploiting soil moisture, precipitation and streamflow observations to evaluate soil moisture/runoff coupling in land surface models

Accurate partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff is a fundamental objective of land surface models tasked with characterizing the surface water and energy balance. Temporal variability in this partitioning is due, in part, to changes in pre-storm soil moisture, which determine soil infiltration capacity and unsaturated storage. Utilizing the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 soil moisture product in combination with streamflow and precipitation observations, we demonstrate that land surface models (LSMs) generally underestimate the strength of the positive rank correlation between pre-storm soil moisture and event runoff coefficients (i.e., the fraction of rainfall accumulation depth converted into stormflow runoff during a storm event). Underestimation is largest for LSMs employing an infiltration-excess approach for stormflow runoff generation. More accurate coupling strength is found in LSMs that explicitly represent sub-surface stormflow or saturation-excess runoff generation processes.

Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Impacts of future urban expansion on summer climate and heat-related human health in eastern China

China is the largest and most rapidly urbanizing nation in the world, and is projected to add an additional 200 million city dwellers by the end of 2030. While this rapid urbanization will lead to vast expansion of built-up areas, the possible climate effect and associated human health impact remain poorly understood. Using a coupled urban-atmospheric model, we first examine potential effects of three urban expansion scenarios to 2030 on summer climate in eastern China. Our simulations indicate extensive warming up to 5°C, 3°C, and 2°C in regard to low- (>0%), high- (>75%), and 100% probability urban growth scenarios, respectively. The partitioning of available energy largely explains the changes in 2-m air temperatures, and increased sensible heat flux with higher roughness length of the underlying urban surface is responsible for the increase of nighttime planetary boundary layer height. In the extreme case (the low-probability expansion pathway), the agglomeration of impervious surfaces substantially reduces low-level atmospheric moisture, consequently resulting in large-scale precipitation reduction. However, the effect of near-surface warming far exceeds that of moisture reduction and imposes non-negligible thermal loads on urban residents. Our study, using a scenario-based approach that accounts for the full range of urban growth uncertainty by 2030, helps better evaluate possible regional climate effects and associated human health outcomes in the most rapidly urbanizing areas of China, and has practical implications for the development of sustainable urban regions that are resilient to changes in both mean and extreme conditions.

Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Fraction Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

The NASA Catchment land surface model (CLSM) is the land model component used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Here, the CLSM versions of MERRA and MERRA-Land are evaluated using snow cover fraction (SCF) observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Moreover, a computationally-efficient empirical scheme is designed to improve CLSM estimates of SCF, snow depth, and snow water equivalent (SWE) through the assimilation of MODIS SCF observations. Results show that data assimilation (DA) improved SCF estimates compared to the open-loop model without assimilation (OL), especially in areas with ephemeral snow cover and mountainous regions. A comparison of the SCF estimates from DA against snow cover estimates from the NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System showed an improvement in the probability of detection of up to 28% and a reduction in false alarms by up to 6% (relative to OL). A comparison of the model snow depth estimates against Canadian Meteorological Centre analyses showed that DA successfully improved the model seasonal bias from -0.017 m for OL to -0.007 m for DA, although there was no significant change in root-mean-square differences (RMSD) (0.095 m for OL, 0.093 m for DA). The time-average of the spatial correlation coefficient also improved from 0.61 for OL to 0.63 for DA. A comparison against in situ SWE measurements also showed improvements from assimilation. The correlation increased from 0.44 for OL to 0.49 for DA, the bias improved from -0.111 m for OL to -0.100 m for DA, and the RMSD decreased from 0.186 m for OL to 0.180 m for DA.

Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations

We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.

An Assessment of the Impact of Land Thermal Infrared Observation on Regional Weather Forecasts Using Two Different Data Assimilation Approaches

Recent studies have shown the unique value of satellite-observed land surface thermal infrared (TIR) information (e.g., skin temperature) and the feasibility of assimilating land surface temperature (LST) into land surface models (LSMs) to improve the simulation of land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. In this study, two different types of LST assimilation techniques are implemented and the benefits from the techniques are compared. One of the techniques is to directly assimilate LST using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) utilities. The other is to use the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inversion model (ALEXI) as an “observation operator” that converts LST retrievals into the soil moisture (SM) proxy based on the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (fPET), which is then assimilated into an LSM. While most current studies have shown some success in both directly the assimilating LST and assimilating ALEXI SM proxy into offline LSMs, the potential impact of the assimilation of TIR information through coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is unclear. In this study, a semi-coupled Land Information System (LIS) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system is employed to assess the impact of the two different techniques for assimilating the TIR observations from NOAA GOES satellites on WRF model forecasts. The NASA LIS, equipped with a variety of LSMs and advanced data assimilation tools (e.g., the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)), takes atmospheric forcing data from the WRF model run, generates updated initial land surface conditions with the assimilation of either LST- or TIR-based SM and returns them to WRF for initializing the forecasts. The WRF forecasts using the daily updated initializations with the TIR data assimilation are evaluated against ground weather observations and re-analysis products. It is found that WRF forecasts with the LST-based SM assimilation have better agreement with the ground weather observations than those with the direct LST assimilation or without the land TIR data assimilation.

Information theoretic evaluation of satellite soil moisture retrievals

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surface soil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of the errors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluation of soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAP instruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis of soil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) and regularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors in the remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements. The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levels of complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity of remotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content.

Tree-ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change

Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions.

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget from a Multi-Model Perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling

The fall 2016 drought in the southeastern United States (SE US) appeared exceptional based on its widespread impacts, but the current monitoring framework that only extends from 1979-present does not readily facilitate evaluation of soil-moisture anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend monthly gridded soil-moisture estimates back to 1895 is developed, indicating that since 1895, October-November 2016 soil moisture (0-200 cm) in the SE US was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by low September-November precipitation and record-high September-November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October-November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted with 20^th-century wetting and cooling in the region, but resembled conditions more common from 1895-1956. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE US by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were likely promoted by a moderate La Niña and warmth in the tropical Atlantic, but these processes accounted for very little of the SE US drying in fall 2016, implying a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE US droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60-year perspective, and continued multi-decadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events.