Reaching an evidence-based prognosis for personalized treatment of multiple sclerosis

Early treatment delays long-term disability accrual in RRMS: Results from the BMSD network

BACKGROUND

The optimal timing of treatment starts for achieving the best control on the long-term disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis (MS) is still to be defined.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the optimal time to start disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) to prevent the long-term disability accumulation in MS, using a pooled dataset from the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data (BMSD) network.

METHODS

Multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for the time to first treatment start from disease onset (in quintiles) were used. To mitigate the impact of potential biases, a set of pairwise propensity score (PS)-matched analyses were performed. The first quintile, including patients treated within 1.2 years from onset, was used as reference.

RESULTS

A cohort of 11,871 patients (median follow-up after treatment start: 13.2 years) was analyzed. A 3- and 12-month confirmed disability worsening event and irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0 and 6.0 scores were reached by 7062 (59.5%), 4138 (34.9%), 3209 (31.1%), and 1909 (16.5%) patients, respectively. The risk of reaching all the disability outcomes was significantly lower (p < 0.0004) for the first quintile patients' group.

CONCLUSION

Real-world data from the BMSD demonstrate that DMTs should be commenced within 1.2 years from the disease onset to reduce the risk of disability accumulation over the long term.

Scoring the 10-year risk of ambulatory disability in multiple sclerosis: the RoAD score

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Both baseline prognostic factors and short-term predictors of treatment response can influence the long-term risk of disability accumulation in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). The objective was to develop and validate a scoring system combining baseline prognostic factors and 1-year variables of treatment response into a single numeric score predicting the long-term risk of disability.

METHODS

We analysed two independent datasets of patients with RRMS who started interferon beta or glatiramer acetate, had an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score <4.0 at treatment start and were followed for at least 10 years. The first dataset ('training set') included patients attending three MS centres in Italy and served as a framework to create the so-called RoAD score (Risk of Ambulatory Disability). The second ('validation set') included a cohort of patients followed in Barcelona, Spain, to explore the performance of the RoAD score in predicting the risk of reaching an EDSS score ≥6.0.

RESULTS

The RoAD score (ranging from 0 to 8) derived from the training set (n = 1225), was based on demographic (age), clinical baseline prognostic factors (disease duration, EDSS) and 1-year predictors of treatment response (number of relapses, presence of gadolinium enhancement and new T2 lesions). The best cut-off score for discriminating patients at higher risk of reaching the disability milestone was ≥4. When applied to the validation set (n = 296), patients with a RoAD score ≥4 had an approximately 4-fold increased risk for reaching the disability milestone (p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

The RoAD score is proposed as an useful tool to predict individual prognosis and optimize treatment strategy of patients with RRMS.

Improving quality, affordability, and equity of multiple sclerosis care

Objective

The prevailing approaches to selecting multiple sclerosis (MS) disease modifying therapies (DMTs) have contributed to exponential increases in societal expenditures and out‐of‐pocket expenses, without compelling evidence of improved outcomes. Guidance is lacking regarding when and in whom the benefits of preventing MS‐related disability likely outweighs the risks of highly effective DMTs (HET) and when it is appropriate to consider DMT costs. Our objective was to develop a standardized approach to improve the quality, affordability and equity of MS care.

Methods

MS experts partnered with health plan pharmacists to develop an ethical, risk‐stratified, cost‐sensitive treatment algorithm. We developed a risk‐stratification schema to classify patients with relapsing forms of MS as high, intermediate or low risk of disability based on the best available evidence and, when the evidence was poor or lacking, by consensus. DMTs are grouped as highly, modestly or low/uncertain effectiveness and preferentially ranked within groups by safety based on pre‐specified criteria. We reviewed FDA documents and the published literature. When efficacy and safety are equivalent, the lower cost DMT is preferred.

Results

Assignment to the high‐risk group prompts treatment with preferred HETs early in the disease course. For persons in the intermediate‐ or low‐risk groups with cost or health care access barriers, we incorporated induction therapy with an affordable B‐cell depleting agent. Based on more favorable safety profiles, our preferred approach prioritizes use of rituximab and natalizumab among HETs and interferon‐betas or glatiramer acetate among modestly effective agents.

Interpretation

The risk‐stratified treatment approach we recommend provides clear, measurable guidance in whom and when to prescribe HETs, when to prioritize lower cost DMTs and how to accommodate persons with MS with cost or other barriers to DMT use. It can be adapted to other cost structures and updated quickly as new information emerges. We recommend that physician groups partner with health insurance plans to adapt our approach to their settings, particularly in the United States. Future studies are needed to resolve the considerable uncertainty about how much variability in prognosis specific risk factors explain.

Assessing and mitigating risk of infection in patients with multiple sclerosis on disease modifying treatment

Introduction: The important development that the multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment field has experienced in the last years comes along with the need of dealing with new adverse events such as the increase risk of infections. In the shared therapeutic decision-making process, the MS expert neurologist should also balance the risks of specific infections under each particular treatment and be familiar with new mitigation strategies.Areas covered: In this review, the authors provide an up-to-date review of the infection risk associated with MS treatments with a specific focus on risk mitigating strategies. The search was conducted using Pubmed® database (2000 - present) to identify publications that reported infection rates and infection complications for each treatment (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, cladribine, natalizumab, alemtuzumab, rituximab, and ocrelizumab).Expert opinion: Since the emergence of the first natalizumab-related PML case, the arrival of new MS therapies has come hand in hand with new infectious complications. MS-specialist neurologist has to face new challenges regarding the management of immunosuppression-related infectious complications. The implementation of patient-centered management focus on preventive and mitigating strategies with a multidisciplinary approach should be seen in the future as a marker of excellence of MS management.

Exploring polypharmacy phenomenon in newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a cohort ambispective single-centre study

Aims:

We aimed to examine the frequency of polypharmacy in a large cohort of patients at the time of diagnosis of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and to explore its effects on discontinuation of first disease-modifying treatment (DMT) using survival analysis.

Methods:

This was a cohort ambispective single-centre study. We enrolled RRMS patients starting their first DMT between 1st January 2013 and 31st December 2015. According to the number of medicines prescribed (except DMTs), we divided the patients into three groups: no-poly RRMS, minor-poly RRMS (from one to three medications), and major-poly RRMS (more than three medications).

Results:

A total of 392 RRMS patients were enrolled (mean age 41.1). The minor-poly RRMS group included 61 patients (15.6%) and the major-poly RRMS group included 112 (28.6%). Individuals in these groups were older and had higher median body mass index (BMI) than patients in the no-poly RRMS group (p < 0.05). Upon multinomial regression analysis, older age at onset was associated with minor and major polypharmacy (OR 1.050, CI 1.010–1.093, p = 0.015 and OR 1.063, CI 1.026–1.101, p = 0.001, respectively) and higher BMI was associated with major polypharmacy (OR 1.186, CI 1.18–1.29, p = 0.001). The rates of discontinuation of first DMT were similar among the three groups (50.7% for no-Poly RRMS, 50.8% for minor-Poly RRMS, and 53.3% for major-Poly RRMS, p = 0.264). At log-Rank test, there were no differences among the three groups (p = 0.834).

Conclusion:

Polypharmacy was more common in older RRMS patients with high BMI.

Machine Learning Use for Prognostic Purposes in Multiple Sclerosis

The course of multiple sclerosis begins with a relapsing-remitting phase, which evolves into a secondarily progressive form over an extremely variable period, depending on many factors, each with a subtle influence. To date, no prognostic factors or risk score have been validated to predict disease course in single individuals. This is increasingly frustrating, since several treatments can prevent relapses and slow progression, even for a long time, although the possible adverse effects are relevant, in particular for the more effective drugs. An early prediction of disease course would allow differentiation of the treatment based on the expected aggressiveness of the disease, reserving high-impact therapies for patients at greater risk. To increase prognostic capacity, approaches based on machine learning (ML) algorithms are being attempted, given the failure of other approaches. Here we review recent studies that have used clinical data, alone or with other types of data, to derive prognostic models. Several algorithms that have been used and compared are described. Although no study has proposed a clinically usable model, knowledge is building up and in the future strong tools are likely to emerge.

Depression and anxiety disorders in patients with multiple sclerosis: association with neurodegeneration and neurofilaments

There is increasing evidence that neurofilament light chain (NF-L) can be considered as a biomarker for neuro-axonal damage. This polypeptide can be released into the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and the blood, where it can be quantified. The concentration of NF-L is elevated in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and psychiatric disorders. We aimed to investigate the NF-L levels in the CSF from treated MS patients and the relationship with depression or anxiety. The study involved three groups: control group (individuals without inflammation), the relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS)-untreated group, and the RRMS-Fingo group (RRMS patients who were treated with fingolimod). MS disability was assessed by the Expanded Disability Status Scale, and depression and anxiety were evaluated by a neuropsychologist, using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory-II, and the Beck Anxiety Inventory. Individual CSF samples were collected to measure NF-L levels. The results of the statistical analysis on levels of NF-L in the CSF of control subjects, RRMS-untreated patients, and RRMS-Fingo patients were significant. The relationship between depression and anxiety in RRMS-Fingo patients and NF-L levels was not statistically significant. In conclusion, MS events such as anxiety and depression appear to contribute to the onset of clinical relapses, subclinical cases, and neurodegeneration.

HLA genotype-clinical phenotype correlations in multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders based on Japan MS/NMOSD Biobank data

HLA genotype-clinical phenotype correlations are not established for multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD). We studied HLA-DRB1/DPB1 genotype–phenotype correlations in 528 MS and 165 NMOSD cases using Japan MS/NMOSD Biobank materials. HLA-DRB1*04:05, DRB1*15:01 and DPB1*03:01 correlated with MS susceptibility and DRB1*01:01, DRB1*09:01, DRB1*13:02 and DPB1*04:01 were protective against MS. HLA-DRB1*15:01 was associated with increased optic neuritis and cerebellar involvement and worsened visual and pyramidal functional scale (FS) scores, resulting in higher progression index values. HLA-DRB1*04:05 was associated with younger onset age, high visual FS scores, and a high tendency to develop optic neuritis. HLA-DPB1*03:01 increased brainstem and cerebellar FS scores. By contrast, HLA-DRB1*01:01 decreased spinal cord involvement and sensory FS scores, HLA-DRB1*09:01 decreased annualized relapse rate, brainstem involvement and bowel and bladder FS scores, and HLA-DRB1*13:02 decreased spinal cord and brainstem involvement. In NMOSD, HLA-DRB1*08:02 and DPB1*05:01 were associated with susceptibility and DRB1*09:01 was protective. Multivariable analysis revealed old onset age, long disease duration, and many relapses as independent disability risks in both MS and NMOSD, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 as an independent risk only in MS. Therefore, both susceptibility and protective alleles can influence the clinical manifestations in MS, while such genotype–phenotype correlations are unclear in NMOSD.

Determinants of therapeutic lag in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

A delayed onset of treatment effect, termed therapeutic lag, may influence the assessment of treatment response in some patient subgroups.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with therapeutic lag on relapses and disability accumulation.

METHODS

Data from MSBase, a multinational multiple sclerosis (MS) registry, and OFSEP, the French MS registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1 year of exposure to MS treatment and 3 years of pre-treatment follow-up, were included in the analysis. Studied outcomes were incidence of relapses and disability accumulation. Therapeutic lag was calculated using an objective, validated method in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Therapeutic lag under specific circumstances was then estimated in subgroups defined by combinations of clinical and demographic determinants.

RESULTS

High baseline disability scores, annualised relapse rate (ARR) ⩾ 1 and male sex were associated with longer therapeutic lag on disability progression in sufficiently populated groups: females with expanded disability status scale (EDSS) < 6 and ARR < 1 had mean lag of 26.6 weeks (95% CI = 18.2-34.9), males with EDSS < 6 and ARR < 1 31.0 weeks (95% CI = 25.3-36.8), females with EDSS < 6 and ARR ⩾ 1 44.8 weeks (95% CI = 24.5-65.1), and females with EDSS ⩾ 6 and ARR < 1 54.3 weeks (95% CI = 47.2-61.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-treatment EDSS and ARR are the most important determinants of therapeutic lag.

Subtyping relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis using structural MRI

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Subtyping relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients may help predict disease progression and triage patients for treatment. We aimed to subtype RRMS patients by structural MRI and investigate their clinical significances.

METHODS

155 relapse-remitting MS (RRMS) and 210 healthy controls (HC) were retrospectively enrolled with structural 3DT1, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and resting-state functional MRI. Z scores of cortical and deep gray matter volumes (CGMV and DGMV) and white matter fractional anisotropy (WM-FA) in RRMS patients were calculated based on means and standard deviations of HC. We defined RRMS as "normal" (- 2 < z scores of both GMV and WM-FA), DGM (z scores of DGMV < - 2), and DGM-plus types (z scores of DGMV and [CGMV or WM-FA] < - 2) according to combinations of z scores compared to HC. Expanded disability status scale (EDSS), cognitive and functional MRI measurements, and conversion rate to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) at 5-year follow-up were compared between subtypes.

RESULTS

77 (49.7%) patients were "normal" type, 37 (23.9%) patients were DGM type and 34 (21.9%) patients were DGM-plus type. 7 (4.5%) patients who were not categorized into the above types were excluded. DGM-plus type had the highest EDSS. Both DGM and DGM-plus types had more severe cognitive impairment than "normal" type. Only DGM-plus type showed decreased functional MRI measures compared to HC. A higher conversion ratio to SPMS in DGM-plus type (55%) was identified compared to "normal" type (14%, p < 0.001) and DGM type (20%, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Three MRI-subtypes of RRMS were identified with distinct clinical and imaging features and different prognosis.

Safety of Newer Disease Modifying Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis

In the past decade, the therapeutic arsenal for multiple sclerosis has expanded greatly. Newer more potent disease modifying therapies (DMTs) with varying mechanisms of actions are increasingly used early in the disease course. These newer DMTs include oral therapies (teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, siponimod, ozanimod, and cladribine) and infusion therapies (natalizumab, alemtuzumab, and ocrelizumab), and are associated with better control of disease activity and long-term outcomes in patients with MS compared to older injectable therapies (interferon beta and glatiramer acetate). However, they are associated with safety concerns and subsequent monitoring requirements. Adverse events are initially observed in phase 2 and 3 clinical trials, and further long-term data are collected in phase 3 extension studies, case series, and post-marketing reports, which highlight the need to periodically re-evaluate and adjust monitoring strategies to optimize treatment safety in an individualized approach.

Usage trend of oral drugs for multiple sclerosis patients in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade, numerous disease modifying drugs (DMDs) for relapsing- remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have been approved in Argentina. The use of oral DMDs (oDMDs) has increased in recent years, although real-life data in our region is limited. We aimed to describe the tendency in the use of oDMDs (as first treatment option or after switch) in relationship with their approval in Argentina.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a cohort of MS patients from five Argentinian MS centers was conducted. Regarding the availability of different oDMDs in Argentina, we define three periods (P1-3): P1: 2012 - 2014; P2: 2015 - 2017 and P3: 2018 - 2020. An analysis was performed comparing between these three periods to assess the tendency for oDMDs use over time.

RESULT

The most frequently prescribed treatment as first DMD was: interferon beta 1a (40%) in P1, fingolimod (37.3%) in P2 and also fingolimod (35%) in P3. We found an increase in the use of oDMTs as initial treatment over time (P1: 17.7%, P2: 63.9% and P3: 65.0%; Chi-square = 41.9 p <0.01). We also found a tendency to increase the use of oDMTs after a first switch (P1: 45.5%, P2: 60.1% and P3 78.3%). Multivariate analysis showed that disease evolution (OR=1.06, p=0.04), and year of treatment initiation (OR=1.01 p<0.01) were independently associated with choice of oDMTs.

CONCLUSION

This study identified an increasing tendency for the use of oDMDs as initial treatment of RMS in relationship with their approval in Argentina.

Transition to secondary progression in relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: Definitions and risk factors

BACKGROUND

No uniform criteria for a sensitive identification of the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) are available.

OBJECTIVE

To compare risk factors of SPMS using two definitions: one based on the neurologist judgment (ND) and an objective data-driven algorithm (DDA).

METHODS

Relapsing-onset MS patients (n = 19,318) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. Risk factors for SPMS and for reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6.0, after SP transition, were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

SPMS identified by the DDA (n = 2343, 12.1%) were older, more disabled and with a faster progression to severe disability (p < 0.0001), than those identified by the ND (n = 3868, 20.0%). In both groups, the most consistent risk factors (p < 0.05) for SPMS were a multifocal onset, an age at onset >40 years, higher baseline EDSS score and a higher number of relapses; the most consistent protective factor was the disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure. DMT exposure during SP did not impact the risk of reaching irreversible EDSS 6.0.

CONCLUSION

A DDA definition of SPMS identifies more aggressive progressive patients. DMT exposure reduces the risk of SPMS conversion, but it does not prevent the disability accumulation after the SP transition.

Age-related adverse events of disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: A meta-regression

OBJECTIVE

To verify the hypothesis of an age-dependent increase of infections and neoplasms in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) under disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) with different mechanisms of action.

METHODS

We extracted relevant data from 45 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on currently licensed DMTs. We fitted inverse-variance weighted meta-regressions with random-effects models to estimate whether age and/or mechanism of action (immunomodulatory, sequestrating, and depletive) of currently licensed DMTs influenced the difference between experimental arm and control arm in the incidence of specific adverse events, namely, overall infections, opportunistic infections, and neoplasms.

RESULTS

A higher incidence of overall infections was observed in RCTs with depletive DMTs (event-rate ratio = 1.25, p < 0.001). Herpetic infections were more frequently observed in RCTs with both depletive (event-rate ratio = 3.51, p < 0.001) and, to a lesser extent, sequestrating DMTs (event-rate ratio = 1.52, p = 0.078). The interaction of age with depletive DMTs was associated with higher incidence of neoplasms (p = 0.017), especially above 45 years of age.

DISCUSSION

Our study supports a detrimental effect of age on the safety profile of depletive DMTs, with an increased incidence of neoplasms especially over 45 years of age. We failed to demonstrate an age-related increased incidence of infections, possibly due to latency in their occurrence.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the normal appearing grey matter in the posterior cingulate gyrus in the prognosis and monitoring of disease activity in MS patients treated with interferon-β in a 3-year follow-up

Several predictors of non-response to interferon-β (IFN-β) treatment have been proposed. The aim of the study was to identify metabolite changes in the normal-appearing cortex of the posterior cingulate gyrus (PCG) using MRS (magnetic resonance spectroscopy) and to investigate their usefulness in prognosis of NEDA (no evidence of disease activity) in the 3-year follow-up and in monitoring treatment effects during IFN-β therapy in the parallel period of time in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Forty-one relapsing-remitting MS patients and 41 sex- and age-matched healthy subjects underwent routine MRI protocol with MRS sequence with the use of a 1.5 T magnet. A single voxel size of 2x2x2cm was inserted in the cortex of PCG region. Associations between baseline metabolic ratios, conventional MRI findings, demographic and clinical factors, and NEDA status were evaluated using logistic, Cox, and multinomial logistic regression models. MS patients in the initial scan showed a statistically significant decline in NAA/Cr ratio (p < 0.0001) and an increase in Cho/Cr ratio (p = 0.016) compared to the control group. None of the MRS parameters predicted NEDA maintenance or the time to loss of NEDA. In treatment monitoring only an improvement in the combination of NAA/Cr + Cho/Cr ratio between the 1st and 2nd year of treatment was connected with a 6.27-fold chance (p = 0.025) of having simultaneous NEDA maintenance. To conclude, metabolite alterations in the PCG region did not predict NEDA maintenance, but they seem to be useful in treatment monitoring.

Early evidence of disease activity during fingolimod predicts medium-term inefficacy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Fingolimod (FTY) is an effective second-line drug for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with ~50% patients showing no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) after 2 years. Nonetheless, the early identification of non-responders is extremely important, to promptly address them to more aggressive drugs.

OBJECTIVES

This cohort study evaluates FTY medium-term effectiveness, searching for early markers of treatment failure.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Three hundred eighty patients starting FTY were enrolled and classified according to NEDA and time to first relapse criteria at 4-year follow-up. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were applied to identify early predictors of non-response.

RESULTS

At 4 years, 65.6% of patients were free from relapses and 35.4% had NEDA. Female gender was associated with a higher risk of non-response. Moreover, evidence of clinical and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) activity during the first year of treatment was highly predictive of disease activity in the follow-up: the positive predictive value for non-response was 0.74 for the presence of ⩾1 relapse, 0.73 for the presence of ⩾1 active MRI lesion, and 0.83 for the presence of both clinical and MRI activity.

CONCLUSIONS

FTY effectiveness persists at medium-term follow-up; a close monitoring during the first year of treatment is warranted to early identify non-responders requiring treatment optimization.

Disease-modifying drugs can reduce disability progression in relapsing multiple sclerosis

An ever-expanding number of disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis have become available in recent years, after demonstrating efficacy in clinical trials. In the real-world setting, however, disease-modifying drugs are prescribed in patient populations that differ from those included in pivotal studies, where extreme age patients are usually excluded or under-represented. In this multicentre, observational, retrospective Italian cohort study, we evaluated treatment exposure in three cohorts of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis defined by age at onset: paediatric-onset (≤18 years), adult-onset (18–49 years) and late-onset multiple sclerosis (≥50 years). We included patients with a relapsing-remitting phenotype, ≥5 years follow-up, ≥3 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) evaluations and a first neurological evaluation within 3 years from the first demyelinating event. Multivariate Cox regression models (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) were used to assess the risk of reaching a first 12-month confirmed disability worsening and the risk of reaching a sustained EDSS of 4.0. The effect of disease-modifying drugs was assessed as quartiles of time exposure. We found that disease-modifying drugs reduced the risk of 12-month confirmed disability worsening, with a progressive risk reduction in different quartiles of exposure in paediatric-onset and adult-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratios in non-exposed versus exposed &gt;62% of the follow-up time: 8.0 (3.5–17.9) for paediatric-onset and 6.3 (4.9–8.0) for adult-onset, P &lt; 0.0001] showing a trend in late-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratio = 1.9 (0.9–4.1), P = 0.07]. These results were confirmed for a sustained EDSS score of 4.0. We also found that relapses were a risk factor for 12-month confirmed disability worsening in all three cohorts, and female sex exerted a protective role in the late-onset cohort. This study provides evidence that sustained exposure to disease-modifying drugs decreases the risk of disability accumulation, seemingly in a dose-dependent manner. It confirms that the effectiveness of disease-modifying drugs is lower in late-onset patients, although still detectable.

Prediction of long-term disability in Chinese patients with multiple sclerosis: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Much information about outcomes of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been studied in Caucasian cohorts. However, little is known about the predictors of long-term disability in Chinese patients with MS. The aim of this prospective, observational study is to identify the prognostic factors associated with long-term disability progression (expanded disability status scale, EDSS=6.0) in Chinese patients with relapsing-onset MS.

METHODS

Based on data from the MSNMOBase registry within the neurology department of Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) in China, this hospital-based cohort study was conducted to estimate the median time of attaining disability endpoint (EDSS = 6.0) by Kaplan-Meier curves, and identify factors that associated with disability progression by Cox proportional regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 415 consecutive, eligible patients with MS were registered in the MSNMOBase of PUMCH and prospectively followed from 2011 to 2019. Of these patients, 365 patients with relapsing-onset MS were analyzed. The median time to reach an EDSS of 6.0 was 22.0 (95% CI 16.5-27.5) years. Age at disease onset greater than 50 years (HR 3.846, 95% CI 1.240-11.932, P=0.020), incomplete recovery from first attack (HR 2.107, 95% CI 1.168-3.800, P=0.013), and ≥2 relapses during the first 2 years after onset (HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.148-4.281, P=0.018) significantly associated with a higher hazard ratio to reach an EDSS of 6.0.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm the importance of age at onset, recovery from the first attack, and number of relapses during the first 2 years after disease onset as predictors of disability progression in Chinese patients with relapsing-onset MS.

Harnessing Real-World Data to Inform Decision-Making: Multiple Sclerosis Partners Advancing Technology and Health Solutions (MS PATHS)

Background: Multiple Sclerosis Partners Advancing Technology and Health Solutions (MS PATHS) is the first example of a learning health system in multiple sclerosis (MS). This paper describes the initial implementation of MS PATHS and initial patient characteristics.

Methods: MS PATHS is an ongoing initiative conducted in 10 healthcare institutions in three countries, each contributing standardized information acquired during routine care. Institutional participation required the following: active MS patient census of ≥500, at least one Siemens 3T magnetic resonance imaging scanner, and willingness to standardize patient assessments, share standardized data for research, and offer universal enrolment to capture a representative sample. The eligible participants have diagnosis of MS, including clinically isolated syndrome, and consent for sharing pseudonymized data for research. MS PATHS incorporates a self-administered patient assessment tool, the Multiple Sclerosis Performance Test, to collect a structured history, patient-reported outcomes, and quantitative testing of cognition, vision, dexterity, and walking speed. Brain magnetic resonance imaging is acquired using standardized acquisition sequences on Siemens 3T scanners. Quantitative measures of brain volume and lesion load are obtained. Using a separate consent, the patients contribute DNA, RNA, and serum for future research. The clinicians retain complete autonomy in using MS PATHS data in patient care. A shared governance model ensures transparent data and sample access for research.

Results: As of August 5, 2019, MS PATHS enrolment included participants (n = 16,568) with broad ranges of disease subtypes, duration, and severity. Overall, 14,643 (88.4%) participants contributed data at one or more time points. The average patient contributed 15.6 person-months of follow-up (95% CI: 15.5–15.8); overall, 166,158 person-months of follow-up have been accumulated. Those with relapsing–remitting MS demonstrated more demographic heterogeneity than the participants in six randomized phase 3 MS treatment trials. Across sites, a significant variation was observed in the follow-up frequency and the patterns of disease-modifying therapy use.

Conclusions: Through digital health technology, it is feasible to collect standardized, quantitative, and interpretable data from each patient in busy MS practices, facilitating the merger of research and patient care. This approach holds promise for data-driven clinical decisions and accelerated systematic learning.

The role of ADC values within the normal-appearing brain in the prognosis of multiple sclerosis activity during interferon-β therapy in the 3-year follow-up: a preliminary report

Predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) activity during disease-modifying treatment are being extensively investigated. The aim of this study was to assess the prognosis of NEDA (no evidence of disease activity) status during IFN-β (interferon-β) treatment, using apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements obtained at initial MRI (magnetic resonance imaging). In 87 MS patients treated with IFN-β, ADC values were calculated for 13 regions of normal-appearing white and grey matter (NAWM, NAGM) based on MRI performed with a 1.5 T magnet before (MS0, n = 45) or after one year of therapy (MS1, n = 42). Associations were evaluated between ADC, conventional MRI findings, demographic and clinical factors and NEDA status within the following 3 years using logistic, Cox and multinomial logistic regression models. NEDA rates in the MS0 group were 64.4%, 46.5% and 33.3% after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd year of treatment, respectively and in MS1 patients 71.4% and 48.7% for the periods 1st–2nd and 1st–3rd years of treatment, respectively. ADC values in the NAWM regions contributed to loss of NEDA and its clinical and radiological components, with a 1–3% increase in the risk of NEDA loss (p = 0.0001–0.0489) in both groups. ADC measurements may have an additional prognostic value with regard to NEDA status.

Induction Versus Escalation in Multiple Sclerosis: A 10-Year Real World Study

In this independent, multicenter, post-marketing study, we directly compare induction immunosuppression versus escalation strategies on the risk of reaching the disability milestone of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥ 6.0 over 10 years in previously untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We collected data of patients who started interferon beta (escalation) versus mitoxantrone or cyclophosphamide (induction) as initial treatment. Main eligibility criteria included an EDSS score ≤ 4.0 at treatment start and either ≥ 2 relapses or 1 disabling relapse with evidence of ≥ 1 gadolinium-enhancing lesion at magnetic resonance imaging scan in the pre-treatment year. Since patients were not randomized to treatment group, we performed a propensity score (PS)-based matching procedure to select individuals with homogeneous baseline characteristics. Comparisons were then conducted using Cox models stratified by matched pairs. Overall, 75 and 738 patients started with induction and escalation, respectively. Patients in the induction group were older and more disabled than those in the escalation group (p < 0.05). The PS-matching procedure retained 75 patients per group. In the re-sampled population, a lower proportion of patients reached the outcome after induction (21/75, 28.0%) than escalation (29/75, 38.7%) (hazard ratio = 0.48; p = 0.024). Considering the whole sample, serious adverse events occurred more frequently after induction (8/75, 10.7%) than escalation (18/738, 2.4%) (odds ratio = 3.36, p = 0.015). These findings suggest that, in patients with poor prognostic factors, induction was more effective than escalation in reducing the risk of reaching the disability milestone, albeit with a worse safety profile. Future studies are warranted to explore if newer induction agents may provide a more advantageous long-lasting risk:benefit profile.

Perivascular tissue resident memory T cells as therapeutic target in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by inflammatory attacks of infiltrating leukocytes at onset but evolves into a smoldering, progressive disease within the central nervous system at its later stages. The authors discuss the contribution of white matter lesions to the pathology of advanced MS, thereby paying particular attention to the role of T cells.

AREAS COVERED

Diagnostic biopsy and autopsy studies of white matter lesions in early MS show different pathological patterns of demyelination and leukocyte infiltration. Brain autopsies from advanced MS display substantial inflammation without distinct patterns and suggest a role for perivascular CD8⁺ tissue-resident memory T (T_RM) cells in active and mixed active/inactive MS white matter lesions. When compared to control and normal-appearing white matter, these lesions are enriched for parenchymal CD8⁺ T cells. In the perivascular space, cuffs containing CD8⁺ T_RM cells are observed also in progressive MS, and could be sites of local reactivation.

EXPERT OPINION

Recent findings point toward the perivascular space as an immunological hotspot, which could be targeted in order to suppress a contribution of T_RM cells to ongoing white matter lesion activity in advanced progressive MS. The authors discuss approaches, which may be explored to suppress T_RM-cell reactivation in the perivascular space.

Decision-making on management of ms and nmosd patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: A latin american survey

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In this COVID-19 context, there is an urgent necessity of sharing information to enable evidence-based decision making on the clinical management.

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In LATAM, 60% of the experts had the possibility of monitoring their patients by telemedicine.

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Most neurologists postpone magnetic resonance and laboratory blood tests delay is associated with the type of MS or NMOSD treatment.

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Platform therapies, dimethyl-fumarate and natalizumab are considered safe options to initiate in naive patients.

Background

The emergence of COVID-19 and its vertiginous spreading speed represents a unique challenge to neurologists managing multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD). The need for data on the impact of the virus on these patients grows rapidly. There is an urgent necessity of sharing information to enable evidence-based decision making on the clinical management. There are no data on what physicians are doing on clinical practice in Latin American countries.

Aim

to investigate current management opinion of Latin American MS and/or NMOSD expert neurologists based on their experience and recommendations.

Methods

we developed a voluntary web-based survey based on hypothetical situations that these patients may encounter, while taking into account the potential risk of developing severe COVID-19 infection.

Results

60% of the experts had the possibility of monitoring their patients by telemedicine. Most neurologists postpone magnetic resonance. Laboratory blood tests delay is associated with the type of treatment. Platform therapies, dimethyl-fumarate and natalizumab are considered safe options to initiate in naive patients.

Conclusion

decision-making about MS and NMOSD patients has become even more complex in order to adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. Risks and benefits should be taken into consideration throughout the patient follow-up.

B and T Cells Driving Multiple Sclerosis: Identity, Mechanisms and Potential Triggers

Historically, multiple sclerosis (MS) has been viewed as being primarily driven by T cells. However, the effective use of anti-CD20 treatment now also reveals an important role for B cells in MS patients. The results from this treatment put forward T-cell activation rather than antibody production by B cells as a driving force behind MS. The main question of how their interaction provokes both B and T cells to infiltrate the CNS and cause local pathology remains to be answered. In this review, we highlight key pathogenic events involving B and T cells that most likely contribute to the pathogenesis of MS. These include (1) peripheral escape of B cells from T cell-mediated control, (2) interaction of pathogenic B and T cells in secondary lymph nodes, and (3) reactivation of B and T cells accumulating in the CNS. We will focus on the functional programs of CNS-infiltrating lymphocyte subsets in MS patients and discuss how these are defined by mechanisms such as antigen presentation, co-stimulation and cytokine production in the periphery. Furthermore, the potential impact of genetic variants and viral triggers on candidate subsets will be debated in the context of MS.

Treatment Optimization in Multiple Sclerosis: Canadian MS Working Group Recommendations

The Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group has updated its treatment optimization recommendations (TORs) on the optimal use of disease-modifying therapies for patients with all forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). Recommendations provide guidance on initiating effective treatment early in the course of disease, monitoring response to therapy, and modifying or switching therapies to optimize disease control. The current TORs also address the treatment of pediatric MS, progressive MS and the identification and treatment of aggressive forms of the disease. Newer therapies offer improved efficacy, but also have potential safety concerns that must be adequately balanced, notably when treatment sequencing is considered. There are added discussions regarding the management of pregnancy, the future potential of biomarkers and consideration as to when it may be prudent to stop therapy. These TORs are meant to be used and interpreted by all neurologists with a special interest in the management of MS.

Considering patient clinical history impacts performance of machine learning models in predicting course of multiple sclerosis

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) progresses at an unpredictable rate, but predictions on the disease course in each patient would be extremely useful to tailor therapy to the individual needs. We explore different machine learning (ML) approaches to predict whether a patient will shift from the initial Relapsing-Remitting (RR) to the Secondary Progressive (SP) form of the disease, using only "real world" data available in clinical routine. The clinical records of 1624 outpatients (207 in the SP phase) attending the MS service of Sant'Andrea hospital, Rome, Italy, were used. Predictions at 180, 360 or 720 days from the last visit were obtained considering either the data of the last available visit (Visit-Oriented setting), comparing four classical ML methods (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbours and AdaBoost) or the whole clinical history of each patient (History-Oriented setting), using a Recurrent Neural Network model, specifically designed for historical data. Missing values were handled by removing either all clinical records presenting at least one missing parameter (Feature-saving approach) or the 3 clinical parameters which contained missing values (Record-saving approach). The performances of the classifiers were rated using common indicators, such as Recall (or Sensitivity) and Precision (or Positive predictive value). In the visit-oriented setting, the Record-saving approach yielded Recall values from 70% to 100%, but low Precision (5% to 10%), which however increased to 50% when considering only predictions for which the model returned a probability above a given "confidence threshold". For the History-oriented setting, both indicators increased as prediction time lengthened, reaching values of 67% (Recall) and 42% (Precision) at 720 days. We show how "real world" data can be effectively used to forecast the evolution of MS, leading to high Recall values and propose innovative approaches to improve Precision towards clinically useful values.

Minimal evidence of disease activity (MEDA) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to define the minimal evidence of disease activity (MEDA) during treatment that can be tolerated without exposing patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis at risk of long-term disability.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of patients followed up to 10 years after starting interferon beta or glatiramer acetate. Survival analyses explored the association between the long-term risk of reaching an Expanded Disability Status Scale≥6.0 and early clinical and MRI activity assessed after the first and second year of treatment. Early disease activity was classified by the so-called 'MAGNIMS score' (low: no relapses and <3 new T2 lesions; medium: no relapses and ≥3 new T2 lesions or 1 relapse and 0-2 new T2 lesions; high: 1 relapse and ≥3 new T2 lesions or ≥2 relapses) and the absence or presence of contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs).

RESULTS

At follow-up, 148/1036 (14.3%) patients reached the outcome: 61/685 (8.9%) with low score (reference category), 57/241 (23.7%) with medium score (HR=1.94, p=0.002) and 30/110 (27.3%) with high score (HR=2.47, p<0.001) after the first year of treatment. In the low score subgroup, the risk was further reduced in the absence (49/607, 8.1%) than in the presence of CELs (12/78, 15.4%; HR=2.11, p=0.01). No evident disease activity and low score in the absence of CELs shared the same risk (p=0.54). Similar findings were obtained even after the second year of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Early marginal MRI activity of one to two new T2 lesions, in the absence of both relapses and CELs, is associated with a minor risk of future disability, thus representing a simple and valuable definition for MEDA.

The Potential of Computational Modeling to Predict Disease Course and Treatment Response in Patients with Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

As of today, 20 disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) have been approved for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) and, based on their efficacy, they can be grouped into moderate-efficacy DMDs and high-efficacy DMDs. The choice of the drug mostly relies on the judgment and experience of neurologists and the evaluation of the therapeutic response can only be obtained by monitoring the clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) status during follow up. In an era where therapies are focused on personalization, this study aims to develop a modeling infrastructure to predict the evolution of relapsing MS and the response to treatments. We built a computational modeling infrastructure named Universal Immune System Simulator (UISS), which can simulate the main features and dynamics of the immune system activities. We extended UISS to simulate all the underlying MS pathogenesis and its interaction with the host immune system. This simulator is a multi-scale, multi-organ, agent-based simulator with an attached module capable of simulating the dynamics of specific biological pathways at the molecular level. We simulated six MS patients with different relapsing-remitting courses. These patients were characterized based on their age, sex, presence of oligoclonal bands, therapy, and MRI lesion load at the onset. The simulator framework is made freely available and can be used following the links provided in the availability section. Even though the model can be further personalized employing immunological parameters and genetic information, we generated a few simulation scenarios for each patient based on the available data. Among these simulations, it was possible to find the scenarios that realistically matched the real clinical and MRI history. Moreover, for two patients, the simulator anticipated the timing of subsequent relapses, which occurred, suggesting that UISS may have the potential to assist MS specialists in predicting the course of the disease and the response to treatment.

Immunosuppression in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis: moving towards personalized treatment

INTRODUCTION

Therapeutic armamentarium in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has radically changed in the last few decades due to the development of disease modifying treatments (DMTs) with highly selective mechanisms of action.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, the authors will focus on the current role of immunosuppressive DMTs in the management of the relapsing-remitting form of MS (RRMS), moving from the rationale of its use and looking at the possibility to design an idealistic scenario of a personalized approach for each single patient.

EXPERT OPINION

Questions remain open about whether initial high-efficacy immunosuppressive DMTs improve long-term outcomes, whether prolonged exposure to these agents increases adverse events and what the strongest early surrogate markers are for predicting long-term treatment responses to high-efficacy drugs. In this way, the immunosuppressive DMTs, are used to hit the immune system early and hard with the idealistic goal of striking the autoimmune activities before the neurological damage becomes irreversible.

Immunoregulatory Functions of Nuclear Receptors: Mechanisms and Therapeutic Implications

Members of the nuclear receptor superfamily serve as master regulators in signaling by either positively or negatively regulating gene expression. Accumulating evidence has suggested that nuclear receptors are actively involved in immune responses, with specific roles in different immune cell compartments that contribute to both normal function and to disease development. The druggable properties of nuclear receptors have made them ideal modulatory therapeutic targets. Here, we revisit nuclear receptor biology, summarize recent advances in our understanding of the immunological functions of nuclear receptors, describe cell-type-specific roles and specific nuclear receptors in disease pathogenesis, and explore their potential as novel therapeutic targets. These nuclear receptor-dependent alterations in the immune system are amenable to pharmacological manipulation and suggest novel therapeutic strategies.

Duration of natalizumab therapy and reasons for discontinuation in a multiple sclerosis population

Objective

To determine multiple sclerosis patient characteristics that predict a shorter duration of natalizumab treatment.

Methods

The Tysabri Outreach: Unified Commitment to Health database was reviewed to identify patients treated with natalizumab at our centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate patient characteristics associated with shorter treatment durations on natalizumab. Associations were also assessed with respect to specific reasons for stopping natalizumab.

Results

We identified 554 patients who began and stopped natalizumab treatment during the observation period. The average disease duration at natalizumab initiation was 7.6 years, and the average number of infusions was 30. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards model identified greater age (P = 0.035), longer disease duration (P < 0.001), progressive relapsing multiple sclerosis phenotype (P = 0.003), current smoking (P = 0.031), and greater depression (P = 0.026) as significant predictors for natalizumab discontinuation. Greater disability levels (P = 0.022) and gadolinium-enhancing lesions on baseline magnetic resonance imaging (P < 0.001) were significantly associated with longer natalizumab treatment. Individuals with progressive relapsing multiple sclerosis had a 14-fold increased hazard of discontinuing natalizumab due to inflammatory events (P < 0.001) than those with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Smokers had an 80% increased hazard of discontinuation due to intolerance (P = 0.008).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that smoking, depression, and a progressive relapsing multiple sclerosis phenotype are associated with shorter natalizumab treatment durations.

Advances in brain imaging in multiple sclerosis

Brain imaging is increasingly used to support clinicians in diagnosing multiple sclerosis (MS) and monitoring its progression. However, the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in MS goes far beyond its clinical application. Indeed, advanced imaging techniques have helped to detect different components of MS pathogenesis in vivo, which is now considered a heterogeneous process characterized by widespread damage of the central nervous system, rather than multifocal demyelination of white matter. Recently, MRI biomarkers more sensitive to disease activity than clinical disability outcome measures, have been used to monitor response to anti-inflammatory agents in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Similarly, MRI markers of neurodegeneration exhibit the potential as primary and secondary outcomes in clinical trials for progressive phenotypes. This review will summarize recent advances in brain neuroimaging in MS from the research setting to clinical applications.