Underestimation of risk associations due to regression dilution in long-term follow-up of prospective studies

Alcohol consumption and cause-specific mortality in Cuba: prospective study of 120 623 adults

BACKGROUND

The associations of cause-specific mortality with alcohol consumption have been studied mainly in higher-income countries. We relate alcohol consumption to mortality in Cuba.

METHODS

In 1996-2002, 146 556 adults were recruited into a prospective study from the general population in five areas of Cuba. Participants were interviewed, measured and followed up by electronic linkage to national death registries until January 1, 2017. After excluding all with missing data or chronic disease at recruitment, Cox regression (adjusted for age, sex, province, education, and smoking) was used to relate mortality rate ratios (RRs) at ages 35-79 years to alcohol consumption. RRs were corrected for long-term variability in alcohol consumption using repeat measures among 20 593 participants resurveyed in 2006-08.

FINDINGS

After exclusions, there were 120 623 participants aged 35-79 years (mean age 52 [SD 12]; 67 694 [56%] women). At recruitment, 22 670 (43%) men and 9490 (14%) women were current alcohol drinkers, with 15 433 (29%) men and 3054 (5%) women drinking at least weekly; most alcohol consumption was from rum. All-cause mortality was positively and continuously associated with weekly alcohol consumption: each additional 35cl bottle of rum per week (110g of pure alcohol) was associated with ∼10% higher risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.08 [95%CI 1.05-1.11]). The major causes of excess mortality in weekly drinkers were cancer, vascular disease, and external causes. Non-drinkers had ∼10% higher risk (RR 1.11 [1.09-1.14]) of all-cause mortality than those in the lowest category of weekly alcohol consumption (<1 bottle/week), but this association was almost completely attenuated on exclusion of early follow-up.

INTERPRETATION

In this large prospective study in Cuba, weekly alcohol consumption was continuously related to premature mortality. Reverse causality is likely to account for much of the apparent excess risk among non-drinkers. The findings support limits to alcohol consumption that are lower than present recommendations in Cuba.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, CDC Foundation (with support from Amgen).

Association of Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Individuals With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The evidence regarding vitamin D status and mortality among people with diabetes is scarce. This study aimed to examine the association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among adults with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 6,329 adults with diabetes from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and NHANES 2001-2014. Death outcomes were ascertained by linkage to National Death Index records through 31 December 2015. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs for mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer.

RESULTS

The weighted mean (95% CI) level of serum 25(OH)D was 57.7 (56.6, 58.8) nmol/L, and 46.6% had deficient vitamin D (<50 nmol/L [20 ng/mL]). Higher serum 25(OH)D levels were significantly associated with lower levels of glucose, insulin, HOMA of insulin resistance, HbA_1c, blood lipids, and C-reactive protein at baseline (all P _trend < 0.05). During 55,126 person-years of follow-up, 2,056 deaths were documented, including 605 CVD deaths and 309 cancer deaths. After multivariate adjustment, higher serum 25(OH)D levels were significantly and linearly associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality: there was a 31% reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 38% reduced risk of CVD mortality per one-unit increment in natural log-transformed 25(OH)D (both P < 0.001). Compared with participants with 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L, the multivariate-adjusted HRs and 95% CI for participants with 25(OH)D >75 nmol/L were 0.59 (0.43, 0.83) for all-cause mortality (P _trend = 0.003), 0.50 (0.29, 0.86) for CVD mortality (P _trend = 0.02), and 0.49 (0.23, 1.04) for cancer mortality (P _trend = 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher serum 25(OH)D levels were significantly associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality. These findings suggest that maintaining adequate vitamin D status may lower mortality risk in individuals with diabetes.

Blood pressure and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Controversy persists about the relationship of blood pressure with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in diabetes and associated disease burden. We assessed these associations among Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

In 2004-08, the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >512,000 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 localities across China, including 26,315 with T2D (based on self-report or plasma glucose measurement) but no prior CVD, followed-up for ~9 years. Cox regression yielded adjusted HR for major CVD and all-cause mortality associated with 10 mmHg higher usual (longer-term average) SBP. Attributable fractions were estimated to assess cardiovascular mortality burden due to uncontrolled hypertension (SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP ≥80 mmHg).

FINDINGS

Overall, 75.7% of participants had self-reported (24.8%) or screen-detected (50.9%) (SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP ≥80 mmHg) hypertension. Among individuals with self-reported hypertension, 82.3% were treated, of whom 9.3% achieved control. There were positive log-linear associations of blood pressure with CVD, with no evidence of a threshold down to ~120 mmHg for usual SBP. Each 10 mmHg higher usual SBP was associated with HR of 1.28 (95% CI 1.25-1.30), 1.18 (1.15-1.21), 1.17 (1.15-1.19) and 1.45 (1.38-1.52) for cardiovascular death (n=1807), major coronary event (n=1190), ischaemic stroke (n=4362) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=469), respectively. There was an apparent J-shaped association with all-cause mortality (n=4503). In this diabetes population, uncontrolled hypertension accounted for 39% of cardiovascular deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Uncontrolled hypertension is common in Chinese adults with T2D, resulting in substantial excess risks of CVD. Improved hypertension management could avoid a large number of cardiovascular-related deaths.

FUNDING

Kadoorie Foundation, Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, MoST, NNSF.

Approaches to minimising the epidemiological impact of sources of systematic and random variation that may affect biochemistry assay data in UK Biobank

Background: UK Biobank is a large prospective study that recruited 500,000 participants aged 40 to 69 years, between 2006-2010.The study has collected (and continues to collect) extensive phenotypic and genomic data about its participants. In order to enhance further the value of the UK Biobank resource, a wide range of biochemistry markers were measured in all participants with an available biological sample. Here, we describe the approaches UK Biobank has taken to minimise error related to sample collection, processing, retrieval and assay measurement. Methods: During routine quality control checks, the laboratory team observed that some assay results were lower than expected for samples acquired during certain time periods. Analyses were undertaken to identify and correct for the unexpected dilution identified during sample processing, and for expected error caused by laboratory drift of assay results. Results: The vast majority (92%) of biochemistry serum assay results were assessed to be not materially affected by dilution, with an estimated difference in concentration of less than 1% (i.e. either lower or higher) than that expected if the sample were unaffected; 8.3% were estimated to be diluted by up to 10%; very few samples appeared to be diluted more than this. Biomarkers measured in urine (creatinine, microalbumin, sodium, potassium) and red blood cells (HbA1c) were not affected. In order to correct for laboratory variation over the assay period, all assay results were adjusted for date of assay, with the exception of those that had a high biological coefficient of variation or evident seasonal variability: vitamin D, lipoprotein (a), gamma glutamyltransferase, C-reactive protein and rheumatoid factor. Conclusions: Rigorous approaches related to sample collection, processing, retrieval, assay measurement and data analysis have been taken to mitigate the impact of both systematic and random variation in epidemiological analyses that use the biochemistry assay data in UK Biobank.

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

BACKGROUND

The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown.

METHODS

Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR).

RESULTS

Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m² increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06-genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m² genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD-associated risk.

Blood Pressure Variation and Subclinical Brain Disease

BACKGROUND

Large blood pressure (BP) variability may contribute to stroke and dementia, but the mechanisms are largely unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the association of BP variation, considering its magnitude and direction, with the presence and progression of subclinical brain disease in the general population.

METHODS

This study included 2,348 participants age ≥55 years from a prospective cohort study. BP was measured at each visit every 3 to 4 years from 1990 onward. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed at all visits from 2005 onward. The authors primarily assessed variation as the absolute difference in BP divided by the mean over 2 sequential visits for both systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP), and further assessed the direction of the variation. The authors investigated the multivariate-adjusted associations of BP variation with subsequent measurements of MRI markers of cerebral small vessel disease, brain tissue volumes, and white matter microstructural integrity. Longitudinal changes in these markers also were assessed.

RESULTS

A large SBP variation (top vs. bottom tertiles), measured on average 7 years preceding brain MRI, was associated with higher odds of having severe white matter hyperintensities (WMH) (odds ratio [OR]: 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21 to 1.43), lacunes (OR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.48), and microbleeds (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.31). Similarly, this variation was associated with smaller total brain volume and worse white matter microstructural integrity (all p < 0.001). A large SBP variation was also associated with the progression of WMH (rate ratio [RR]: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.27). Higher burdens of these brain imaging markers were observed with both large rises and falls in SBP. Similar findings were observed for DBP variation.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated BP variation was associated with a wide range of subclinical brain structural changes, including MRI markers of cerebral small vessel disease, smaller brain tissue volumes, and worse white matter microstructural integrity. These subclinical brain changes could be the underlying mechanisms linking BP variation to dementia and stroke.

Association between low density lipoprotein and all cause and cause specific mortality in Denmark: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between levels of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and all cause mortality, and the concentration of LDL-C associated with the lowest risk of all cause mortality in the general population.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Denmark; the Copenhagen General Population Study recruited in 2003-15 with a median follow-up of 9.4 years.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals randomly selected from the national Danish Civil Registration System.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Baseline levels of LDL-C associated with risk of mortality were evaluated on a continuous scale (restricted cubic splines) and by a priori defined centile categories with Cox proportional hazards regression models. Main outcome was all cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were cause specific mortality (cardiovascular, cancer, and other mortality).

RESULTS

Among 108 243 individuals aged 20-100, 11 376 (10.5%) died during the study, at a median age of 81. The association between levels of LDL-C and the risk of all cause mortality was U shaped, with low and high levels associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality. Compared with individuals with concentrations of LDL-C of 3.4-3.9 mmol/L (132-154 mg/dL; 61st-80th centiles), the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for all cause mortality was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.36) for individuals with LDL-C concentrations of less than 1.8 mmol/L (<70 mg/dL; 1st-5th centiles) and 1.15 (1.05 to 1.27) for LDL-C concentrations of more than 4.8 mmol/L (>189 mg/dL; 96th-100th centiles). The concentration of LDL-C associated with the lowest risk of all cause mortality was 3.6 mmol/L (140 mg/dL) in the overall population and in individuals not receiving lipid lowering treatment, compared with 2.3 mmol/L (89 mg/dL) in individuals receiving lipid lowering treatment. Similar results were seen in men and women, across age groups, and for cancer and other mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. Any increase in LDL-C levels was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

In the general population, low and high levels of LDL-C were associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality, and the lowest risk of all cause mortality was found at an LDL-C concentration of 3.6 mmol/L (140 mg/dL).

Examination of potential novel biochemical factors in relation to prostate cancer incidence and mortality in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Although prostate cancer is a leading cause of cancer death, its aetiology is not well understood. We aimed to identify novel biochemical factors for prostate cancer incidence and mortality in UK Biobank.

METHODS

A range of cardiovascular, bone, joint, diabetes, renal and liver-related biomarkers were measured in baseline blood samples collected from up to 211,754 men at recruitment and in a subsample 5 years later. Participants were followed-up via linkage to health administrative datasets to identify prostate cancer cases. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression corrected for regression dilution bias. Multiple testing was accounted for by using a false discovery rate controlling procedure.

RESULTS

After an average follow-up of 6.9 years, 5763 prostate cancer cases and 331 prostate cancer deaths were ascertained. Prostate cancer incidence was positively associated with circulating vitamin D, urea and phosphate concentrations and inversely associated with glucose, total protein and aspartate aminotransferase. Phosphate and cystatin-C were the only biomarkers positively and inversely, respectively, associated with risk in analyses excluding the first 4 years of follow-up. There was little evidence of associations with prostate cancer death.

CONCLUSION

We found novel associations of several biomarkers with prostate cancer incidence. Future research will examine associations by tumour characteristics.

Circulating liver function markers and colorectal cancer risk: A prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank

Evidence links the liver to development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it remains unknown how liver function may influence CRC risk in the general population. We conducted a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank of 375 693 participants who provided blood samples in 2006 to 2010. Circulating levels of liver function markers (alanine transaminase [ALT], aspartate transaminase [AST], total bilirubin [TBIL], gamma glutamyltransferase [GGT], alkaline phosphatase [ALP], total protein [TP] and albumin [ALB]) were measured. Incident cancer cases were identified through linkage to the national cancer registry up to 2019. Repeated biomarker measurements were available from a subset of 11 320 participants who were re-assessed in 2012 to 2013. After a median follow-up of 10.0 years, we documented 2662 cases of CRC. Circulating levels of ALT, AST, TBIL, GGT, TP and ALB at baseline were inversely associated with CRC risk (P < .01), with multivariable hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing decile 10 vs 1 of 0.62 (0.51-0.75), 0.63 (0.53-0.75), 0.85 (0.72-1.02), 0.74 (0.61-0.89), 0.70 (0.59-0.84) and 0.66 (0.55-0.79), respectively. Strengthened associations were found after recalibration for repeated measurements. The associations appeared stronger for proximal colon cancer than distal colon cancer and rectal cancer, but consistent for early-, mid- and late-onset CRC. In a large cohort of general population, the UK Biobank, higher circulating levels of ALT, AST, TBIL, GGT, TP and ALB, largely within the normal range, were associated with a lower risk of CRC. The findings support a link between liver function and CRC, and may spur future research on the gut-microbiota-liver axis.

Cross-sectional associations between central and general adiposity with albuminuria: observations from 400,000 people in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Whether measures of central adiposity are more or less strongly associated with risk of albuminuria than body mass index (BMI), and by how much diabetes/levels of glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) explain or modify these associations, is uncertain.

METHODS

Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate associations between values of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio) and, separately, general adiposity (BMI) with categories of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) in 408,527 UK Biobank participants. Separate central and general adiposity-based models were initially adjusted for potential confounders and measurement error, then sequentially, models were mutually adjusted (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI, and vice versa), and finally they were adjusted for potential mediators.

RESULTS

Levels of albuminuria were generally low: 20,425 (5%) had a uACR ≥3 mg/mmol. After adjustment for confounders and measurement error, each 0.06 higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 55% (95%CI 53-57%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. After adjustment for baseline BMI, this association was reduced to 32% (30-34%). Each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a 47% (46-49%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. Adjustment for baseline waist-to-hip ratio reduced this association to 35% (33-37%). Those with higher HbA1c were at progressively higher odds of albuminuria, but positive associations between both waist-to-hip ratio and BMI were apparent irrespective of HbA1c. Altogether, about 40% of central adiposity associations appeared to be mediated by diabetes, vascular disease and blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional epidemiological approaches suggest that higher waist-to-hip ratio and BMI are independently positively associated with albuminuria. Adiposity-albuminuria associations appear strong among people with normal HbA1c, as well as people with pre-diabetes or diabetes.

Association of TG/HDLC ratio trajectory and risk of type 2 diabetes: A retrospective cohort study in China

BACKGROUND

The association of ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C ratio) change trajectory with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between risk of T2DM and TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory.

METHODS

A total of 18 444 participants aged 18-80 years old were included in this cohort study. Linear regression and quadratic regression models were used to determine the TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory and probability of T2DM.

RESULTS

T2DM developed in 714 participants during a median follow-up of 5.74 years (92 076.23 person-years of follow-up). After adjusting for baseline potential confounders, odds of T2DM were greater for participants with the increasing, U-shape, bell-shape, and other shape change vs decreasing change (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.01, 95% CI 1.42-2.81; 1.56, 1.15-2.13; 1.60, 1.17-2.20; and 1.49, 1.13-2.00, respectively). The results were robust in the sensitivity analyses on excluding baseline participants with T2DM. Moreover, the associations remained significant with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m2 .

CONCLUSIONS

This retrospective study revealed increased probability of T2DM with increasing, U-shape, bell-shape, and other-shape TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectories, especially with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m2 .

Psychosocial factors and hospitalisations for COVID-19: Prospective cohort study based on a community sample

BACKGROUND

While certain infectious diseases have been linked to socioeconomic disadvantage, mental health problems, and lower cognitive function, relationships with COVID-19 are either uncertain or untested. Our objective was to examine the association of a range of psychosocial factors with hospitalisation for COVID-19.

METHODS

UK Biobank, a prospective cohort study, comprises around half a million people who were aged 40-69 years at study induction between 2006 and 2010 when information on psychosocial factors and covariates were captured. Hospitalisations for COVID-19 were ascertained between 16th March and 26th April 2020.

RESULTS

There were 908 hospitalisations for COVID-19 in an analytical sample of 431,051 England-based study members. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, an elevated risk of COVID-19 was related to disadvantaged levels of education (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 2.05; 1.70, 2.47), income (2.00; 1.63, 2,47), area deprivation (2.20; 1.86, 2.59), occupation (1.39; 1.14, 1.69), psychological distress (1.58; 1.32, 1.89), mental health (1.50; 1.25, 1.79), neuroticism (1.19; 1.00, 1.42), and performance on two tests of cognitive function - verbal and numerical reasoning (2.66; 2.06, 3.34) and reaction speed (1.27; 1.08, 1.51). These associations were graded (p-value for trend ≤ 0.038) such that effects were apparent across the full psychosocial continua. After mutual adjustment for these characteristics plus ethnicity, comorbidity, and lifestyle factors, only the relationship between lower cognitive function as measured using the reasoning test and risk of the infection remained (1.98; 1.38, 2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

A range of psychosocial factors revealed associations with hospitalisation for COVID-19 of which the relation with cognitive function, a marker of health literacy, was most robust.

Low high-density lipoprotein and increased risk of several cancers: 2 population-based cohort studies including 116,728 individuals

Background

Increasing evidence suggests that high-density lipoprotein (HDL) may play a role in cancer development. We tested the hypothesis that low HDL levels are associated with increased risk of cancer.

Methods

Individuals from two population-based cohorts, the Copenhagen General Population Study (2003–2015, N = 107 341), and the Copenhagen City Heart Study (1991–1994, N = 9387) were followed prospectively until end of 2016 to assess low plasma HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 as risk factors for cancer using Cox proportional hazard regression.

Results

During up to 25 years follow-up, we observed 8748 cancers in the Copenhagen General Population Study and 2164 in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. In the Copenhagen General Population Study and compared to individuals with HDL cholesterol ≥ 2.0 mmol/L (≥ 77 mg/dL), multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for any cancer were 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.22) for individuals with HDL cholesterol of 1.5–1.99 mmol/L (58–77 mg/dL), 1.18 (1.08–1.30) for HDL cholesterol of 1.0–1.49 mmol/L (39–58 mg/dL), and 1.29 (1.12–1.48) for individuals with HDL cholesterol < 1.0 mmol/L (< 39 mg/dL). Correspondingly, compared to individuals with apolipoprotein A1 ≥ 190 mg/dL, HRs for any cancer were 1.06 (0.96–1.17) for individuals with apolipoprotein A1 of 160–189 mg/dL, 1.18 (1.07–1.30) for apolipoprotein A1 of 130–159 mg/dL, and 1.28 (1.13–1.46) for individuals with apolipoprotein A1 < 130 mg/dL. Among 27 cancer types, low HDL cholesterol and/or apolipoprotein A1 were associated with increased risk of multiple myeloma, myeloproliferative neoplasm, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, breast cancer, lung cancer, and nervous system cancer. Results were overall similar in women and men separately, and in the Copenhagen City Heart Study.

Conclusions

Low HDL levels were associated with increased risk of several cancers. Increased risk was most pronounced for hematological and nervous system cancer, and to a minor extent for breast and respiratory cancer.

Approaches to minimising the epidemiological impact of sources of systematic and random variation that may affect biochemistry assay data in UK Biobank

Background: UK Biobank is a large prospective study that recruited 500,000 participants aged 40 to 69 years, between 2006-2010.The study has collected (and continues to collect) extensive phenotypic and genomic data about its participants. In order to enhance further the value of the UK Biobank resource, a wide range of biochemistry markers were measured in all participants with an available biological sample. Here, we describe the approaches UK Biobank has taken to minimise error related to sample collection, processing, retrieval and assay measurement. Methods: During routine quality control checks, the laboratory team observed that some assay results were lower than expected for samples acquired during certain time periods. Analyses were undertaken to identify and correct for the unexpected dilution identified during sample processing, and for expected error caused by laboratory drift of assay results. Results: The vast majority (92%) of biochemistry serum assay results were assessed to be not materially affected by dilution, with an estimated difference in concentration of less than 1% (i.e. either lower or higher) than that expected if the sample were unaffected; 8.3% were estimated to be diluted by up to 10%; very few samples appeared to be diluted more than this. Biomarkers measured in urine (creatinine, microalbumin, sodium, potassium) and red blood cells (HbA1c) were not affected. In order to correct for laboratory variation over the assay period, all assay results were adjusted for date of assay, with the exception of those that had a high biological coefficient of variation or evident seasonal variability: vitamin D, lipoprotein (a), gamma glutamyltransferase, C-reactive protein and rheumatoid factor. Conclusions: Rigorous approaches related to sample collection, processing, retrieval, assay measurement and data analysis have been taken to mitigate the impact of both systematic and random variation in epidemiological analyses that use the biochemistry assay data in UK Biobank.

Circulating Insulin-like Growth Factor-I Concentrations and Risk of 30 Cancers: Prospective Analyses in UK Biobank

Circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) is positively associated with the risks of colorectal, breast, and prostate cancer, but evidence for other less common cancers is limited. In this study, we investigated associations between serum IGF-I concentrations and incidence of less common cancers in the UK Biobank study. To enable comparison of effect estimates, and as positive controls, both common and less common cancer sites (total 30) were included in an outcome-wide analysis. Data from 394,388 cancer-free participants in the UK Biobank study were analyzed. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations between baseline serum IGF-I concentrations and cancer incidence, using repeated IGF-I measurements from up to 14,149 participants to correct for regression dilution bias. Higher IGF-I concentration was associated with increased risks of thyroid cancer [HR per 5 nmol/L higher concentration 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.37] in addition to colorectal (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13), breast (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.15), and prostate cancer (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.05-1.12), and reduced risks of ovarian and liver cancer. Mean follow-up was 6.9 years and the possibility that the observed associations may be influenced by reverse causality bias cannot be excluded. Additional nominally significant associations with malignant melanoma, multiple myeloma, oral cancer, and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma did not survive correction for multiple testing. Studies with longer follow-up and pooled analyses are needed to further assess how broad the role of IGF-I is in cancer development. SIGNIFICANCE: The results from this outcome-wide analysis are consistent with a positive association of IGF-I with cancers at several sites.

Association of Blood Pressure With Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexican Adults

IMPORTANCE

Elevated blood pressure is a major cause of premature death, but there is little direct evidence demonstrating this association in studies of Hispanic populations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between blood pressure and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort of Mexican adults with a high prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 159 755 adults aged 35 years or older from 2 districts in Mexico City were recruited to this cohort study between April 1998 and September 2004 and followed up until January 2018. The present analyses focused on 133 613 participants who were aged 35 to 74 years and had no history of chronic disease besides diabetes.

EXPOSURE

Blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cox regression, adjusted for confounders, yielded mortality rate ratios (RRs) for deaths of participants occurring between ages 35 and 74 years.

RESULTS

Of the 133 613 participants (43 263 [32.4%] men; mean [SD] age, 50 [11] years), 16 911 (12.7%) had self-reported previously diagnosed diabetes (including 8435 [6.3%] with uncontrolled diabetes, defined as hemoglobin A1c ≥9%) and 6548 (4.9%) had undiagnosed diabetes. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was associated with vascular mortality between ages 35 to 74 years, with each 20 mm Hg lower usual SBP associated with 35% lower vascular mortality (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68), including 48% lower stroke mortality (RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.47-0.59) and 32% lower ischemic heart disease mortality (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.63-0.74). These RRs were broadly similar in those with and without diabetes. Compared with those without diabetes and SBP less than 135 mm Hg at recruitment, the vascular mortality RR was 2.8 (95% CI, 2.4-3.3) for those without diabetes and SBP of 155 mm Hg or greater, 4.7 (95% CI, 4.1-5.4) for those with uncontrolled diabetes and SBP less than 135 mm Hg, and 8.9 (95% CI, 7.2-11.1) for those with uncontrolled diabetes and SBP of 155 mm Hg or greater. Lower SBP was also associated with decreased kidney-related mortality (RR per 20 mm Hg lower usual SBP, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.74), decreased mortality from infection (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71-0.91), and decreased mortality from hepatobiliary disease (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78-0.98), but not decreased neoplastic or respiratory mortality. SBP was more informative for vascular mortality than other blood pressure measures (eg, compared with SBP, diastolic blood pressure was only two-thirds as informative).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Blood pressure was most strongly associated with vascular and kidney-related mortality in this Mexican population, with particularly high absolute excess mortality rates among individuals with diabetes. The findings reinforce the need for more widespread use of blood pressure-lowering medication in Mexico, particularly among those with diabetes.

Circulating Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1 and Risk of Total and 19 Site-Specific Cancers: Cohort Study Analyses from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) has been implicated in several malignancies, but few studies have examined multiple cancers simultaneously. We sought to conduct systematic assessments of the association between IGF-1 and cancer risk.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis between IGF-1 and incident total and 19 site-specific cancers among 412,645 individuals enrolled in the UK Biobank with follow-up to 2016. IGF-1 was measured using blood samples provided at the baseline examination. HR and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated with multivariable-adjusted Cox models with IGF-1 modeled both in sex-specific quintiles and continuously.

RESULTS

Participants were followed for a median of 7.2 years. We observed positive associations between circulating IGF-1 and overall cancer risk for both men (HR = 1.03 per 5-nmol/L increment in IGF-1; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) and women (HR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06). For specific sites, we observed positive associations for breast (HR = 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.14), prostate (1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.12), colorectum (1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11), melanoma (1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.15), kidney (1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.20), and thyroid (1.22; 95% CI, 1.05-1.42) and inverse associations for lung (0.91; 95% CI, 0.86-0.96), ovaries (0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.95), head and neck (0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99), and liver (0.32; 95% CI, 0.26-0.38). The inverse association between IGF-1 and lung cancer was observed only in ever-smokers (HR_ever-smoker = 0.88 vs. HR_never-smoker = 1.14; P_interaction = 0.0005). Analyses comparing extreme quintiles were consistent.

CONCLUSIONS

IGF-1 is modestly associated with increased risk of total cancer in both men and women but demonstrated divergent associations for site-specific cancers.

IMPACT

Our study suggests that IGF-1 could serve as a target for cancer prevention or treatment.

Hematologic Markers and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Prospective Analysis in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for prostate cancer are not well understood. Red blood cell, platelet, and white blood cell indices may be markers of a range of exposures that might be related to prostate cancer risk. Therefore, we examined the associations of hematologic parameters with prostate cancer risk.

METHODS

Complete blood count data from 209,686 male UK Biobank participants who were free from cancer at study baseline were analyzed. Participants were followed up via data linkage. After a mean follow-up of 6.8 years, 5,723 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 323 men died from prostate cancer. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer incidence and mortality by hematologic parameters, and corrected for regression dilution bias.

RESULTS

Higher red blood cell (HR per 1 SD increase = 1.09, 95% CI, 1.05-1.13) and platelet counts (HR = 1.07, 1.04-1.11) were associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Higher mean corpuscular volume (HR = 0.90, 0.87-0.93), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (HR = 0.90, 0.87-0.93), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (HR = 0.87, 0.77-0.97), and mean sphered cell volume (HR = 0.91, 0.87-0.94) were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk. Higher white blood cell (HR = 1.14, 1.05-1.24) and neutrophil count (HR = 1.27, 1.09-1.48) were associated with prostate cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These associations of blood indices of prostate cancer risk and mortality may implicate shared common causes, including testosterone, nutrition, and inflammation/infection among several others in prostate cancer development and/or progression.

IMPACT

These associations provide insights into prostate cancer development and progression.

Age-Specific Associations Between Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease: A 10-Year Diabetes Mellitus Cohort Study

Background The relationship between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among patients with diabetes mellitus remains unclear. The study aimed to explore age-specific associations between SBP and CVD. Methods and Results A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 180 492 Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus in 2008-2010, with follow-up to 2017. Age-specific associations (<50, 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79 years) between the average SBP in the previous 2 years and CVD risk were assessed by adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression with age-specific regression dilution ratios and patient characteristics stratified by subgroups. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years (1.5 million person-years), 32 545 patients developed a CVD, with an incidence rate of 23.4 per 1000 person-years. A positive and log-linear association between SBP and CVD risk was observed among the 4 age groups without evidence of a threshold down to 120 mm Hg, but the magnitude of SBP effect on CVD attenuated with increased age. The CVD risk in the age group <50 years was ≈22% higher than the age group 70 to 79 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 1.26-1.41] versus HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.07-1.11]). Each 10-mm Hg higher SBP was associated with 12% (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.10-1.13]), 11% (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.10-1.13]), and 20% (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]) higher risk of all composite CVD events, individual CVD, and CVD mortality, respectively. Conclusions There is a significant log-linear relationship between baseline SBP and the risk of CVD among patients with diabetes mellitus in China. The risk increases from an SBP of 120 mm Hg onward. Age influences this relationship significantly, with younger patients (<50 years) having a greater risk of CVD for a similar rise in SBP as compared with those who are older. These findings suggest that differential target blood pressures stratified by age maybe useful.

Incidental lymphopenia and mortality: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

It is unknown if incidental lymphopenia detected in the general population is associated with higher all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We aimed to identify the associations between lymphopenia and all-cause and cause specific mortality.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study, we examined and followed participants enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study between November 2003 and April 2015. In our analysis, we modelled risks using Cox proportional hazards regression for 3 groups: participants with a lymphocyte count below the 2.5th percentile; those with a lymphocyte count at or between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles (reference category); and those with a lymphocyte count above the 97.5th percentile.

RESULTS

The cohort included 108 135 participants with a median age of 68 years. During a median follow-up of 9 (interquartile range [IQR] 0-14) years, 10 372 participants died. We found that participants with lymphopenia (lymphocyte count < 1.1 × 10⁹/L) compared with those with a lymphocyte count in the reference range (1.1-3.7 × 10⁹/L) had higher mortality with multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.63 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-1.76) for all causes, 1.67 (95% CI 1.42-1.97) for nonhematologic cancers, 2.79 (95% CI 1.82-4.28) for hematologic cancers, 1.88 (95% CI 1.61-2.20) for cardiovascular diseases, 1.88 (95% CI 1.55-2.29) for respiratory diseases, 1.86 (95% CI 1.53-2.25) for infectious diseases, and 1.50 (95% CI 1.19-1.88) for other causes. For all-cause mortality, the highest absolute 2-year risks of death were observed in women (61%) and men (75%) who smoked and were aged 80 years or older with lymphocyte counts less than 0.5 × 10⁹/L. Participants with a lymphocyte count higher than the reference category had increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.31).

INTERPRETATION

We found that lymphopenia was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

High-Sensitivity Troponin-T and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Community: Differences Between Women and Men

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (cTnT) with cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart failure (HF), and mortality in community-dwelling women and men.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

A total of 8226 adults from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort (1997-1998) were enrolled in a prospective observational study (mean age: 49 years; 50.2% women). Sex-specific associations of cTnT levels with future clinical outcomes were evaluated using adjusted Cox-regression models.

RESULTS

Measurable cTnT levels (≥3 ng/L) were detected in 1102 women (26.7%) and in 2396 men (58.5%). Baseline cTnT levels were associated with a greater risk of developing CVD in women than men [Hazard ratio (HR_women), 1.48 per unit increase in log₂-cTnT; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.81 vs HR_men, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.35; P_interaction<.001]. Similar sex-related differences were observed for HF (P_interaction= .005) and mortality (P_interaction= .008). Further, compared with referent category (cTnT <3 ng/L), women with cTnT levels greater than or equal to 6 ng/L had a significantly increased risk for CVD (HR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.45 to 3.64), HF (HR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.41 to 5.80), and mortality (HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.52 to 4.61), whereas men with cTnT levels greater than or equal to 6 ng/L had a significantly increased risk only for CVD (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.13).

CONCLUSION

Baseline cTnT levels were associated with future CVD, HF, and mortality in both sexes, and these associations were stronger in women. Future studies are needed to determine the value of cTnT in early diagnosis of CVD, particularly in women.

The UK Biobank imaging enhancement of 100,000 participants: rationale, data collection, management and future directions

UK Biobank is a population-based cohort of half a million participants aged 40-69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. In 2014, UK Biobank started the world's largest multi-modal imaging study, with the aim of re-inviting 100,000 participants to undergo brain, cardiac and abdominal magnetic resonance imaging, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and carotid ultrasound. The combination of large-scale multi-modal imaging with extensive phenotypic and genetic data offers an unprecedented resource for scientists to conduct health-related research. This article provides an in-depth overview of the imaging enhancement, including the data collected, how it is managed and processed, and future directions.

Insulin-like growth factor-1, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3, and breast cancer risk: observational and Mendelian randomization analyses with ∼430 000 women

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence supports a positive association between circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) concentrations and breast cancer risk, but both the magnitude and causality of this relationship are uncertain. We conducted observational analyses with adjustment for regression dilution bias, and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses allowed for causal inference.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We investigated the associations between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and incident breast cancer risk in 206 263 women in the UK Biobank. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. HRs were corrected for regression dilution using repeat IGF-1 measures available in a subsample of 6711 women. For the MR analyses, genetic variants associated with circulating IGF-1 and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) levels were identified and their association with breast cancer was examined with two-sample MR methods using genome-wide data from 122 977 cases and 105 974 controls.

RESULTS

In the UK Biobank, after a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 4360 incident breast cancer cases occurred. In the multivariable-adjusted models corrected for regression dilution, higher IGF-1 concentrations were associated with a greater risk of breast cancer (HR per 5 nmol/l increment of IGF-1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07-1.16). Similar positive associations were found by follow-up time, menopausal status, body mass index, and other risk factors. In the MR analyses, a 5 nmol/l increment in genetically-predicted IGF-1 concentration was associated with a greater breast cancer risk (odds ratio = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.10; P = 0.02), with a similar effect estimate for estrogen-positive (ER+) tumours, but no effect found for estrogen-negative (ER-) tumours. Genetically-predicted IGFBP-3 concentrations were not associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per 1-standard deviation increment = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.97-1.04; P = 0.98).

CONCLUSION

Our results support a probable causal relationship between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer, suggesting that interventions targeting the IGF pathway may be beneficial in preventing breast tumorigenesis.

Red meat, poultry and fish consumption and risk of diabetes: a 9 year prospective cohort study of the China Kadoorie Biobank

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Previous evidence linking red meat consumption with diabetes risk mainly came from western countries, with little evidence from China, where patterns of meat consumption are different. Moreover, global evidence remains inconclusive about the associations of poultry and fish consumption with diabetes. Therefore we investigated the associations of red meat, poultry and fish intake with incidence of diabetes in a Chinese population.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited ~512,000 adults (59% women, mean age 51 years) from ten rural and urban areas across China in 2004-2008. At the baseline survey, a validated interviewer-administered laptop-based questionnaire was used to collect information on the consumption frequency of major food groups including red meat, poultry, fish, fresh fruit and several others. During ~9 years of follow-up, 14,931 incidences of new-onset diabetes were recorded among 461,036 participants who had no prior diabetes, cardiovascular diseases or cancer at baseline. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate adjusted HRs for incident diabetes associated with red meat, poultry and fish intake.

RESULTS

At baseline, 47.0%, 1.3% and 8.9% of participants reported a regular consumption (i.e. ≥4 days/week) of red meat, poultry and fish, respectively. After adjusting for adiposity and other potential confounders, each 50 g/day increase in red meat and fish intake was associated with 11% (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.04, 1.20]) and 6% (HR 1.06 [95% CI 1.00, 1.13]) higher risk of incident diabetes, respectively. For both, the associations were more pronounced among men and women from urban areas, with an HR (95% CI) of 1.42 (1.15, 1.74) and 1.18 (1.03, 1.36), respectively, per 50 g/day red meat intake and 1.15 (1.02, 1.30) and 1.11 (1.01, 1.23), respectively, per 50 g/day fish intake. There was no significant association between diabetes and poultry intake, either overall (HR 0.96 [95% CI 0.83, 1.12] per 50 g/day intake) or in specific population subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In Chinese adults, both red meat and fish, but not poultry, intake were positively associated with diabetes risk, particularly among urban participants. Our findings add new evidence linking red meat and fish intake with cardiometabolic diseases.

DATA AVAILABILITY

Details of how to access the China Kadoorie Biobank data and rules of China Kadoorie Biobank data release are available from www.ckbiobank.org/site/Data+Access.

Low High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol to Monitor Long-Term Average Increased Triglycerides

CONTEXT

Increased triglyceride-rich remnants represent a causal risk factor for ischemic cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE

We tested the hypothesis that low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol can be used to monitor long-term high triglycerides/remnant cholesterol, just as high hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) can be used to monitor long-term high glucose levels.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS

We studied cross-sectionally 108 731 individuals, dynamically 1313 individuals with lipid measurement at 10 repeated visits, short-term 305 individuals during a fat load, and long-term 10 479 individuals with 2 lipid measurements 10 years apart.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Levels of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, HDL cholesterol was inversely associated with triglycerides (R2 = 0.26) and remnant cholesterol (R2 = 0.26). Dynamically, major changes in triglyceride levels from measurement to measurement were mimicked by corresponding modest changes in HDL cholesterol. In the short-term after a fat load, median triglycerides increased 96% while HDL cholesterol decreased only 1%. Long-term, in individuals with measurements 10 years apart, those who initially had the highest triglycerides and corresponding lowest HDL cholesterol, still had highest triglycerides and lowest HDL cholesterol 10 years later. Prospectively, individuals with increased triglycerides/remnant cholesterol had increased risk of myocardial infarction; however, when the HDL cholesterol monitoring was removed, increased triglycerides/remnant cholesterol were largely no longer associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

Low HDL cholesterol is a stable marker of average high triglycerides/remnant cholesterol. This suggests that low HDL cholesterol can be used to monitor long-term average high triglycerides and remnant cholesterol, analogous to high HbA1c as a long-term monitor of average high glucose levels.

Circulating Levels of Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3 Associate With Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Serologic and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Human studies examining associations between circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and colorectal cancer risk have reported inconsistent results. We conducted complementary serologic and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether alterations in circulating levels of IGF1 or IGFBP3 are associated with colorectal cancer development.

METHODS

Serum levels of IGF1 were measured in blood samples collected from 397,380 participants from the UK Biobank, from 2006 through 2010. Incident cancer cases and cancer cases recorded first in death certificates were identified through linkage to national cancer and death registries. Complete follow-up was available through March 31, 2016. For the MR analyses, we identified genetic variants associated with circulating levels of IGF1 and IGFBP3. The association of these genetic variants with colorectal cancer was examined with 2-sample MR methods using genome-wide association study consortia data (52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 individuals without [controls]) RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 7.1 years, 2665 cases of colorectal cancer were recorded. In a multivariable-adjusted model, circulating level of IGF1 associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increment of IGF1, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.17). Similar associations were found by sex, follow-up time, and tumor subsite. In the MR analyses, a 1 standard deviation increment in IGF1 level, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12; P = 3.3 × 10-4). Level of IGFBP3, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increment, 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18; P = 4.2 × 10-5). Colorectal cancer risk was associated with only 1 variant in the IGFBP3 gene region (rs11977526), which also associated with anthropometric traits and circulating level of IGF2.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of blood samples from almost 400,000 participants in the UK Biobank, we found an association between circulating level of IGF1 and colorectal cancer. Using genetic data from 52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 controls, a higher level of IGF1, determined by genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to determine how this signaling pathway might contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis.

Sex-Specific Associations of Vascular Risk Factors With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Findings From 1.5 Million Women and 0.8 Million Men in the United States and United Kingdom

Background

Large studies are required for reliable estimates of important risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This could guide targeted AAA screening programs, particularly in subgroups like women who are currently excluded from such programs.

Method and Results

In a cross‐sectional study, 1.5 million women and 0.8 million men without known vascular disease attended commercial screening clinics in the United Kingdom or United States from 2008 to 2013. Measurements of vascular risk factors were related to AAA using logistic regression with correction for regression dilution bias. Screening detected 12 729 new AAA cases (0.6%). Compared with never smoking, current smoking was associated with 15 times the risk of AAA among women (risk ratio 15.0, 95% CI 13.2–17.0) and 7 times among men (7.3, 6.4–8.2). In women aged <75 years, the risk of AAA was nearly 30 times greater in current smokers (26.4, 20.3–34.2). In every age group, the prevalence of AAA in female smokers was greater than in male never‐smokers. Positive log‐linear associations with AAA for women and men were also observed for usual body mass index, usual systolic blood pressure, height, usual low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and usual triglycerides.

Conclusions

Log‐linear increases in the risks of AAA with traditional vascular risk factors should be considered when evaluating populations that may be at‐risk for the development of AAA, and when considering potential treatments. However, at any given age, female smokers are at higher risk of AAA than male never‐smokers, and a policy of screening male never‐smokers but not higher‐risk female smokers is questionable.

Mediterranean Style Diet and Kidney Function Loss in Kidney Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Despite improvement of short-term graft survival over recent years, long-term graft survival after kidney transplantation has not improved. Studies in the general population suggest the Mediterranean diet benefits kidney function preservation. We investigated whether adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with kidney outcomes in kidney transplant recipients.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We included 632 adult kidney transplant recipients with a functioning graft for ≥1 year. Dietary intake was inquired using a 177-item validated food frequency questionnaire. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was assessed using a nine-point Mediterranean Diet Score. Primary end point of the study was graft failure and secondary end points included kidney function decline (doubling of serum creatinine or graft failure) and graft loss (graft failure or death with a functioning graft). Cox regression analyses were used to prospectively study the associations of the Mediterranean Diet Score with study end points.

RESULTS

During median follow-up of 5.4 (interquartile range, 4.9-6.0) years, 76 participants developed graft failure, 119 developed kidney function decline, and 181 developed graft loss. The Mediterranean Diet Score was inversely associated with all study end points (graft failure: hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.50 to 0.91; kidney function decline: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.85; and graft loss: HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.88 per two-point increase in Mediterranean Diet Score) independent of potential confounders. We identified 24-hour urinary protein excretion and time since transplantation to be an effect modifier, with stronger inverse associations between the Mediterranean Diet Score and kidney outcomes observed in participants with higher urinary protein excretion and participants transplanted more recently.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with better kidney function outcomes in kidney transplant recipients.

Diet and colorectal cancer in UK Biobank: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Most of the previous studies on diet and colorectal cancer were based on diets consumed during the 1990s.

METHODS

We used Cox-regression models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for colorectal cancer by dietary factors in the UK Biobank study. Men and women aged 40-69 years at recruitment (2006-10) reported their diet on a short food-frequency questionnaire (n = 475 581). Dietary intakes were re-measured in a large sub-sample (n = 175 402) who completed an online 24-hour dietary assessment during follow-up. Trends in risk across the baseline categories were calculated by assigning re-measured intakes to allow for measurement error and changes in intake over time.

RESULTS

During an average of 5.7 years of follow-up, 2609 cases of colorectal cancer occurred. Participants who reported consuming an average of 76 g/day of red and processed meat compared with 21 g/day had a 20% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4-37] higher risk of colorectal cancer. Participants in the highest fifth of intake of fibre from bread and breakfast cereals had a 14% (95% CI: 2-24) lower risk of colorectal cancer. Alcohol was associated with an 8% (95% CI: 4-12) higher risk per 10 g/day higher intake. Fish, poultry, cheese, fruit, vegetables, tea and coffee were not associated with colorectal-cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Consumption of red and processed meat at an average level of 76 g/d that meets the current UK government recommendation (≤90 g/day) was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Alcohol was also associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, whereas fibre from bread and breakfast cereals was associated with a reduced risk.

Effects of blood pressure lowering on cardiovascular events, in the context of regression to the mean: a systematic review of randomized trials

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical relevance of regression to the mean for clinical trials and clinical practice.

METHODS

MEDLINE was searched until February 2018 for randomized trials of BP lowering with over 1000 patient-years follow-up per group. We estimated baseline mean BP, follow-up mean (usual) BP amongst patients grouped by 10 mmHg strata of baseline BP, and assessed effects of BP lowering on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke according to these BP levels.

RESULTS

Eighty-six trials (349 488 participants), with mean follow-up of 3.7 years, were included. Most mean BP change was because of regression to the mean rather than treatment. At high baseline BP levels, even after rigorous hypertension diagnosis, downwards regression to the mean caused much of the fall in BP. At low baseline BP levels, upwards regression to the mean increased BP levels, even in treatment groups. Overall, a BP reduction of 6/3 mmHg lowered CHD by 14% (95% CI 11-17%) and stroke by 18% (15-22%), and these treatment effects occurred at follow-up BP levels much closer to the mean than baseline BP levels. In particular, more evidence was available in the SBP 130-139 mmHg range than any other range. Benefits were apparent in numerous high-risk patient groups with baseline mean SBP less than 140 mmHg.

CONCLUSION

Clinical practice should focus less on pretreatment BP levels, which rarely predict future untreated BP levels or rule out capacity to benefit from BP lowering in high cardiovascular risk patients. Instead, focus should be on prompt, empirical treatment to maintain lower BP for those with high BP and/or high risk.

Is it time to stop sweeping data cleaning under the carpet? A novel algorithm for outlier management in growth data

All data are prone to error and require data cleaning prior to analysis. An important example is longitudinal growth data, for which there are no universally agreed standard methods for identifying and removing implausible values and many existing methods have limitations that restrict their usage across different domains. A decision-making algorithm that modified or deleted growth measurements based on a combination of pre-defined cut-offs and logic rules was designed. Five data cleaning methods for growth were tested with and without the addition of the algorithm and applied to five different longitudinal growth datasets: four uncleaned canine weight or height datasets and one pre-cleaned human weight dataset with randomly simulated errors. Prior to the addition of the algorithm, data cleaning based on non-linear mixed effects models was the most effective in all datasets and had on average a minimum of 26.00% higher sensitivity and 0.12% higher specificity than other methods. Data cleaning methods using the algorithm had improved data preservation and were capable of correcting simulated errors according to the gold standard; returning a value to its original state prior to error simulation. The algorithm improved the performance of all data cleaning methods and increased the average sensitivity and specificity of the non-linear mixed effects model method by 7.68% and 0.42% respectively. Using non-linear mixed effects models combined with the algorithm to clean data allows individual growth trajectories to vary from the population by using repeated longitudinal measurements, identifies consecutive errors or those within the first data entry, avoids the requirement for a minimum number of data entries, preserves data where possible by correcting errors rather than deleting them and removes duplications intelligently. This algorithm is broadly applicable to data cleaning anthropometric data in different mammalian species and could be adapted for use in a range of other domains.

Association of inflammatory markers with hearing impairment: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

BACKGROUND

Hearing impairment is common at an older age and has considerable social, health and economic implications. With an increase in the ageing population, there is a need to identify modifiable risk factors for hearing impairment. A shared aetiology with cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been advanced as CVD risk factors (e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes) are associated with a greater risk of hearing impairment. Moreover, low-grade inflammation is implicated in the aetiology of CVD. Accordingly, our aim was to investigate the association between several markers of inflammation - C-reactive protein, fibrinogen and white blood cell count - and hearing impairment.

METHODS

Participants of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing aged 50-93 were included. Inflammatory marker data from both wave 4 (baseline, 2008/09) and wave 6 (2012/13) were averaged to measure systemic inflammation. Hearing acuity was measured with a simple handheld tone-producing device at follow-up (2014/15).

RESULTS

Among 4879 participants with a median age of 63 years at baseline, 1878 (38.4%) people presented hearing impairment at follow-up. All three biomarkers were positively and linearly associated with hearing impairment independent of age and sex. After further adjustment for covariates, including cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, cholesterol), memory and depression, only the association with white blood cell count remained significant: odds ratio per log-unit increase; 95% confidence interval = 1.46; 1.11, 1.93.

CONCLUSIONS

While white blood cell count was positively associated with hearing impairment in older adults, no relationships were found for two other markers of low-grade inflammation.

Body Mass Index, Triglycerides, and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis: A Population-Based Study of 118 000 Individuals

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of acute pancreatitis is rising worldwide and currently no curative treatment exists. Clarification of preventable risk factors is important for the reduction of morbidity and mortality from acute pancreatitis. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the risk of acute pancreatitis associated with body mass index (BMI) is partly mediated through elevated triglycerides.

DESIGN

We included 118 085 individuals from 2 prospective cohort studies, the Copenhagen City Heart Study and the Copenhagen General Population Study, with BMI measured at baseline. Diagnosis of acute pancreatitis was assessed from the national Danish registries, as hospitalization or death due to acute pancreatitis.

RESULTS

Higher BMI was associated with higher risk of acute pancreatitis with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.8) for BMI of 25-29.9, 2.1 (1.6-2.9) for BMI of 30-34.9, and 2.8 (1.8-4.3) for BMI > 35, compared with individuals with BMI of 18.5-24.9. Triglycerides mediated 29% (95% CI, 12%-46%; P = 0.001) of the association between BMI and risk of acute pancreatitis in the age- and sex-adjusted model and 22% (6%-39%; P = 0.008) in the multivariable-adjusted model.

CONCLUSION

Higher BMI is associated with higher risk of acute pancreatitis in individuals from the general population, partly mediated through higher triglycerides. This indicates a potential for preventing acute pancreatitis by reducing BMI and triglycerides in individuals with high values.

Apolipoprotein B, Triglyceride-Rich Lipoproteins, and Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Persons with CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins may contribute to the high cardiovascular risk of patients with CKD. This study evaluated associations of apo-B and markers of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins with cardiovascular events in people with CKD.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Analyses were conducted in 9270 participants with CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP): 6245 not on dialysis (mean eGFR 26.5 ml/min per 1.73 m²), and 3025 on dialysis when recruited. Cox regression methods were used to evaluate associations of lipids with incident atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic vascular events, adjusting for demographics and clinical characteristics. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per 1 SD higher level for apo-B, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglyceride-rich lipoprotein cholesterol (i.e., total cholesterol minus LDL cholesterol minus HDL cholesterol), non-HDL cholesterol, log triglyceride, and log ratio of triglyceride to HDL cholesterol.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range, 4.0-5.5 years), 1406 participants experienced at least one atherosclerotic vascular event. In multivariable adjusted models, positive associations with atherosclerotic vascular events were observed for apo-B (HR per 1 SD, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.27), triglycerides (1.06; 1.00 to 1.13), the ratio of triglyceride to HDL cholesterol (1.10; 1.03 to 1.18), and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein cholesterol (1.14; 1.05 to 1.25). By contrast, inverse associations with nonatherosclerotic vascular events were observed for each of these lipid markers: apo-B (HR per 1 SD, 0.92; 0.85 to 0.98), triglycerides (0.86; 0.81 to 0.92), the ratio of triglyceride to HDL cholesterol (0.88; 0.82 to 0.94), and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein cholesterol (0.85; 0.77 to 0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher apo-B, triglycerides, ratio of triglyceride to HDL cholesterol, and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations were associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic vascular events in CKD. Reducing triglyceride-rich lipoproteins using novel therapeutic agents could potentially lower the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in the CKD population.

Circulating total bilirubin and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the PREVEND study: observational findings and a Mendelian randomization study

The relationship between circulating total bilirubin and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of total bilirubin with the risk of new-onset NAFLD and investigate any causal relevance to the association using a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Plasma total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective study of 3824 participants (aged 28–75 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease or NAFLD. Incident NAFLD was estimated using the biomarker-based algorithms, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI). Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) for NAFLD were assessed. The genetic variant rs6742078 located in the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus was used as an instrumental variable. Participants were followed up for a mean duration of 4.2 years. The multivariable adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by FLI (434 cases) was 0.82 (0.73–0.92; p = 0.001) per 1 standard deviation (SD) change in log_e total bilirubin. The corresponding adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by HSI (452 cases) was 0.87 (0.78–0.97; p = 0.012). The rs6742078 variant explained 20% of bilirubin variation. The ORs (95% CIs) for a 1 SD genetically elevated total bilirubin level was 0.98 (0.69–1.38; p = 0.900) for FLI and 1.14 (0.81–1.59; p = 0.451) for HSI. Elevated levels of total bilirubin were not causally associated with decreased risk of NAFLD based on MR analysis. The observational association may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, due to low statistical power, larger-scale investigations are necessary to draw definitive conclusions.

Short- and long-term systolic blood pressure changes have different impacts on major adverse cardiovascular events: Results from a 12.5 years follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Systolic blood pressure increased in middle-aged person contributes significantly to the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Meanwhile, different patterns (short- or long-term change) of SBP increase may result in differential risk and lead to differences in predictive ability.

METHODS

A total of 19,544 and 22,610 participants in the Fuxin Cardiovascular Cohort Study underwent measurement of SBP at 2 examinations for short- and long-term change study population. Cox proportional hazards models were used to relate future clinical outcomes with change in SBP.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 12.5 years, 1064 (772 stroke, 247 myocardial infarction, 528 CVD deaths) and 1316 (958 stroke, 301 myocardial infarction, 660 CVD deaths) MACE were identified during short- and long-terms SBP change, respectively. For SBP increased participants, short-term change in SBP was associated with future MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.241 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.146-1.344; P < 0.001), long-term change in SBP (HR: 1.218; 95% CI: 1.123-1.322; P < 0.001). For prehypertension participants, long-term changes conferred a strong impact than short-term. For hypertensive participants, short-term changes conferred a strong impact than long-term.

CONCLUSIONS

Having a SBP rise in short- or long-term both confer an increased risk of MACE and its subgroups. Furthermore, short- and long-term SBP increase patterns adds different additional information beyond one single baseline examination. Change in SBP may be a prognostic surrogate marker and future studies are needed to clarify the possible mechanism for predicting MACE.

Arterial and venous thrombosis by high platelet count and high hematocrit: 108 521 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether high platelet count or high hematocrit predict risk of thrombosis in individuals from the general population.

OBJECTIVES

We tested the hypothesis that individuals from the general population with high platelet count or high hematocrit have high risk of arterial and venous thrombosis.

METHODS

We prospectively followed 108 521 individuals from The Copenhagen General Population Study for a median of 8 years. Platelet count and blood hematocrit were measured at study entry.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for individuals with platelet counts in the top 5 percentiles (>398 × 109 /L) vs in the 25th-75th percentiles (231-316 × 109 /L) were 1.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-2.24) for arterial thrombosis in the brain (38 and 26 events/10 000 person-years) and 0.82 (95%, 0.61-1.11) for arterial thrombosis in the heart (23 and 28 events/10 000 person-years). For individuals with hematocrit values in the top 5 percentiles (women/men: >45/>48%) vs the 25th-75th percentiles (women/men: 38.1-42/41.1-45%), hazard ratios were 1.27 (95% CI, 0.91-1.75) for arterial thrombosis in the brain (40 and 26 events/10 000 person-years) and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.06-2.00) for arterial thrombosis in the heart (43 and 25 events/10 000 person-years). Neither high platelet count nor high hematocrit was associated with risk of venous thromboembolism. When excluding individuals with myeloproliferative neoplasia from the main analyses, results on risk of thrombosis were similar. In this prospective study, high platelet counts were associated with 1.8-fold risk of arterial thrombosis in the brain, whereas high hematocrit was associated with 1.5-fold risk of arterial thrombosis in the heart.

Reproducibility of dietary intakes of macronutrients, specific food groups, and dietary patterns in 211 050 adults in the UK Biobank study

To detect modest associations of dietary intake with disease risk, observational studies need to be large and control for moderate measurement errors. The reproducibility of dietary intakes of macronutrients, food groups and dietary patterns (vegetarian and Mediterranean) was assessed in adults in the UK Biobank study on up to five occasions using a web-based 24-h dietary assessment (n 211 050), and using short FFQ recorded at baseline (n 502 655) and after 4 years (n 20 346). When the means of two 24-h assessments were used, the intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) for macronutrients varied from 0·63 for alcohol to 0·36 for polyunsaturated fat. The ICC for food groups also varied from 0·68 for fruit to 0·18 for fish. The ICC for the FFQ varied from 0·66 for meat and fruit to 0·48 for bread and cereals. The reproducibility was higher for vegetarian status (κ > 0·80) than for the Mediterranean dietary pattern (ICC = 0·45). Overall, the reproducibility of pairs of 24-h dietary assessments and single FFQ used in the UK Biobank were comparable with results of previous prospective studies using conventional methods. Analyses of diet-disease relationships need to correct for both measurement error and within-person variability in dietary intake in order to reliably assess any such associations with disease in the UK Biobank.

Association of Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular and Chronic Kidney Disease in Hong Kong Hypertensive Patients

The association between systolic blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate these relationships. A population-based cohort of 267 469 adult patients with hypertension but without diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, or chronic kidney disease were identified. Using baseline and repeated systolic blood pressure (average of all systolic blood pressure measurements in the past 5 years), the risks of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease associated with systolic blood pressure were evaluated by Cox regression. Subgroup analyses were conducted by baseline characteristics. Over 1.4 million person-years follow-up (median 6 years), 29 500 cardiovascular disease and 30 993 chronic kidney disease events diagnosed. A J-shape association between baseline systolic blood pressure and risks of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease was observed. Using repeated systolic blood pressure, a positive and log-linear association was identified. There was no evidence of a threshold down to the repeated systolic blood pressure of 120 mm Hg. Increases of 10 mm Hg of repeated systolic blood pressure was associated with a 16% (hazard ratio, 1.15; [95% CI, 1.13-1.16]), 11% (1.11; [1.08-1.13]), and 22% (1.22; [1.20-1.24]) higher risk of composite of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, individual cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, respectively. Strength of the associations was similar across different subpopulations. This study showed that hypertensive patients with elevated repeated systolic blood pressure are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease or chronic kidney disease, irrespective of different characteristics. Very low single measurement of systolic blood pressure may be a potential indicator for poor health, but there seems to be no threshold for usual systolic blood pressure.

The impact of physical activity and an additional behavioural risk factor on cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Regular physical activity improves overall health, and has the capacity to reduce risk of chronic diseases and death. However, better understanding of the relationship between multiple lifestyle risk behaviours and disease outcomes is pertinent for prioritising public health messaging. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the association between physical inactivity in combination with additional lifestyle risk behaviours (smoking, alcohol, diet, or sedentary behaviour) for cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We searched Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Register from 1 January 2010 to 12 December 2017, for longitudinal observational studies of adults (18+ years) in the general population with a publication date of 2010 onwards and no language restriction. Main exposure variables had to include a physical activity measure plus at least one other lifestyle risk factor. In total, 25,639 studies were identified. Titles, abstracts and full-text articles of potentially relevant papers were screened for eligibility. Data was extracted and quality assessment was completed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS).

RESULTS

Across the 25 eligible studies, those participants who reported being physically active combined with achieving other health behaviour goals compared to those who were categorised as physically inactive and did not achieve other positive lifestyle goals, were at least half as likely to experience an incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) event, die from CVD, or die from any cause. These findings were consistent across participant age, sex, and study length of follow-up, and even after excluding lower quality studies. We also observed a similar trend among the few studies which were restricted to cancer outcomes. Most studies did not consider epidemiological challenges that may bias findings, such as residual confounding, reverse causality by pre-existing disease, and measurement error from self-report data.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of physical activity in combination with other positive lifestyle choices is associated with better health outcomes. Applying new approaches to studying the complex relationships between multiple behavioural risk factors, including physical activity, should be a priority.

Body Fat Distribution and Systolic Blood Pressure in 10,000 Adults with Whole-Body Imaging: UK Biobank and Oxford BioBank

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to quantify the associations of regional fat mass and fat-free mass with systolic blood pressure.

METHODS

This analysis combined individual participant data from two large-scale imaging studies: UK Biobank and Oxford BioBank. In both studies, participants were interviewed and measured, and they underwent dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry imaging. Linear regression was used to relate systolic blood pressure to anthropometric measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio) and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry-derived measures of body composition (visceral android fat, subcutaneous android fat, subcutaneous gynoid fat, and fat-free mass).

RESULTS

Among 10,260 participants (mean age 49; 96% white), systolic blood pressure was positively associated with visceral android fat (3.2 mmHg/SD in men; 2.8 mmHg/SD in women) and fat-free mass (1.92 mmHg/SD in men; 1.64 mmHg/SD in women), but there was no evidence of an association with subcutaneous android or gynoid fat. Associations of systolic blood pressure with BMI were slightly steeper than those with waist circumference or waist to hip ratio; these associations remained unchanged following adjustment for fat-free mass, but adjustment for visceral android fat eliminated associations with waist circumference and waist to hip ratio and more than halved associations with BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis indicates that visceral fat is the primary etiological component of excess adiposity underlying the development of adiposity-related hypertension.

Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prospective associations of baseline and long term trajectories of physical activity on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

Adults from the general population in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

14 599 men and women (aged 40 to 79) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort, assessed at baseline (1993 to 1997) up to 2004 for lifestyle and other risk factors; then followed to 2016 for mortality (median of 12.5 years of follow-up, after the last exposure assessment).

MAIN EXPOSURE

Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) derived from questionnaires, calibrated against combined movement and heart rate monitoring.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Multivariable proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for age, sex, sociodemographics, and changes in medical history, overall diet quality, body mass index, blood pressure, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels.

RESULTS

During 171 277 person years of follow-up, 3148 deaths occurred. Long term increases in PAEE were inversely associated with mortality, independent of baseline PAEE. For each 1 kJ/kg/day per year increase in PAEE (equivalent to a trajectory of being inactive at baseline and gradually, over five years, meeting the World Health Organization minimum physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes/week of moderate-intensity physical activity), hazard ratios were: 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.82) for all cause mortality, 0.71 (0.62 to 0.82) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99) for cancer mortality, adjusted for baseline PAEE, and established risk factors. Similar results were observed when analyses were stratified by medical history of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Joint analyses with baseline and trajectories of physical activity show that, compared with consistently inactive individuals, those with increasing physical activity trajectories over time experienced lower risks of mortality from all causes, with hazard ratios of 0.76 (0.65 to 0.88), 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72), and 0.58 (0.43 to 0.78) at low, medium, and high baseline physical activity, respectively. At the population level, meeting and maintaining at least the minimum physical activity recommendations would potentially prevent 46% of deaths associated with physical inactivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Middle aged and older adults, including those with cardiovascular disease and cancer, can gain substantial longevity benefits by becoming more physically active, irrespective of past physical activity levels and established risk factors. Considerable population health impacts can be attained with consistent engagement in physical activity during mid to late life.

Long-Term Exposure to Elevated Systolic Blood Pressure in Predicting Incident Cardiovascular Disease: Evidence From Large-Scale Routine Electronic Health Records

Background How measures of long-term exposure to elevated blood pressure might add to the performance of "current" blood pressure in predicting future cardiovascular disease is unclear. We compared incident cardiovascular disease risk prediction using past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure alone or in combination. Methods and Results Using data from UK primary care linked electronic health records, we applied a landmark cohort study design and identified 80 964 people, aged 50 years (derivation cohort=64 772; validation cohort=16 192), who, at study entry, had recorded blood pressure, no prior cardiovascular disease, and no previous antihypertensive or lipid-lowering prescriptions. We used systolic blood pressure recorded up to 10 years before baseline to estimate past systolic blood pressure (mean, time-weighted mean, and variability) and usual systolic blood pressure (correcting current values for past time-dependent blood pressure fluctuations) and examined their prospective relation with incident cardiovascular disease (first hospitalization for or death from coronary heart disease or stroke/transient ischemic attack). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and applied Bayesian analysis within a machine learning framework in model development and validation. Predictive performance of models was assessed using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration metrics. We found that elevated past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure values were separately and independently associated with increased incident cardiovascular disease risk. When used alone, the hazard ratio (95% credible interval) per 20-mm Hg increase in current systolic blood pressure was 1.22 (1.18-1.30), but associations were stronger for past systolic blood pressure (mean and time-weighted mean) and usual systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio ranging from 1.39-1.45). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a model that included current systolic blood pressure, sex, smoking, deprivation, diabetes mellitus, and lipid profile was 0.747 (95% credible interval, 0.722-0.811). The addition of past systolic blood pressure mean, time-weighted mean, or variability to this model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% credible interval) to 0.750 (0.727-0.811), 0.750 (0.726-0.811), and 0.748 (0.723-0.811), respectively, with all models showing good calibration. Similar small improvements in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were observed when testing models on the validation cohort, in sex-stratified analyses, or by using different landmark ages (40 or 60 years). Conclusions Using multiple blood pressure recordings from patients' electronic health records showed stronger associations with incident cardiovascular disease than a single blood pressure measurement, but their addition to multivariate risk prediction models had negligible effects on model performance.

Association of change in cognitive function from early adulthood to middle age with risk of cause-specific mortality: the Vietnam Experience Study

BACKGROUND

Studies with single baseline measurements of cognitive function consistently reveal inverse relationships with mortality risk. The relation of change in functioning, particularly from early in the life course, which may offer additional insights into causality, has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested.

AIMS

To examine the association of change in cognition between late adolescence and middle age with cause-specific mortality using data from a prospective cohort study.

METHODS

The analytical sample consisted of 4289 former US male military personnel who were administered the Army General Technical Test in early adulthood (mean age 20.4 years) and again in middle age (mean age 38.3 years).

RESULTS

A 15-year period of mortality surveillance subsequent to the second phase of cognitive testing gave rise to 237 deaths. Following adjustment for age, a 10-unit increase in cognitive function was related to a reduced risk of death from all causes (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93) and cardiovascular disease (HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.95) but not from all cancers (HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.47) nor injury (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.81 to 1.29). Adjustment for markers of socioeconomic status in middle age resulted in marked attenuation in the magnitude of these associations and statistical significance at conventional levels was lost in all analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, the apparent link between increased cognition and mortality was mediated by socioeconomic status.

Physical activity and risk of recurrence and mortality after incident venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist on the relationship between physical activity and major complications after incident venous thromboembolism (VTE).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether physical activity was associated with risk of recurrence and mortality in patients with VTE recruited from the general population.

METHODS

Patients with incident VTE (n = 786) derived from the Tromsø Study surveys 4-6 (1994-1995, 2001-2002, and 2007-2008) were included, and data on physical activity were dichotomized according to the activity level reported in the survey preceding the incident VTE (inactive: <1 hour per week, active: ≥1 hour per week). Recurrent VTE and all-cause mortality were registered up to December 31, 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrence and all-cause mortality were calculated using Cox regression models with the inactive group as reference.

RESULTS

There were 139 recurrences and 395 deaths during follow-up. Physical activity was not associated with the risk of recurrence in men (HR model 2: 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-2.65) or in women (HR model 2: 0.95, 95% CI 0.52-1.74). In contrast, physical activity was associated with a 28% lower risk of mortality during 10 years of follow up (HR model 3: 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91). The inverse association was stronger in patients with a first deep vein thrombosis ( HR model 2: 0.59, 95% CI 0.44-0.79) than a pulmonary embolism (HR model 3: 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.26).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that habitual physical activity prior to incident VTE does not influence the risk of recurrence. In contrast, active individuals were at lower risk of mortality, particularly following deep vein thrombosis.

Complement activation assessed by the plasma terminal complement complex and future risk of venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

It remains uncertain whether activation of the complement system, assessed by the soluble terminal C5b-9 complement complex (plasma TCC), is associated with future risk of incident venous thromboembolism (VTE).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between plasma levels of TCC and future risk of incident VTE in a nested case-control study, and to explore genetic variants associated with TCC using protein quantitative trait loci analysis of exome sequencing data.

METHODS

We sampled 415 VTE cases and 848 age- and sex-matched controls from a population-based cohort, the Tromsø study. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals for VTE across quartiles of plasma levels of TCC. Whole exome sequencing was conducted using the Agilent SureSelect 50 Mb capture kit.

RESULTS

The risk of VTE increased across increasing quartiles of plasma TCC, particularly for unprovoked VTE. Participants with TCC in the highest quartile (>1.40 complement arbitrary units/mL) had an odds ratio for unprovoked VTE of 1.74 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-2.78) compared with those with TCC in the lowest quartile (≤0.80 complement arbitrary units/mL) in analyses adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index. A substantially higher risk for VTE was observed in samples taken shortly before VTE event. We found no association between genome-wide or complement-related gene variants and plasma levels of TCC.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that high levels of plasma TCC were associated with VTE risk, and unprovoked events in particular. There was no genome-wide association between gene variants and plasma levels of TCC.

Age-specific associations between systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular mortality

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify the following in all age groups among individuals without known hypertension and CVD: (1) Whether a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 130-139 mm Hg elevates cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. (2) Whether SBP shows a linear association with cause-specific CVD mortality.

METHODS

We used the Korean National Health Insurance sample data (n=429 220). Participants were categorised into three groups by age (40-59 years, 60-69 years and 70-80 years).

RESULTS

During 10.4 years of follow-up, 4319 cardiovascular deaths occurred. A positive and graded association was generally observed between SBP and overall and cause-specific CVD mortality regardless of age, except for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in those aged 70-80 years. Among those aged 70-80 years, the HRs (95% CIs) for overall CVD mortality were 1.08 (0.92-1.28), 1.14 (0.97-1.34) and 1.34 (1.14-1.58) for SBP values of 120-129 mm Hg, 130-139 mm Hg and 140-149 mm Hg, respectively, compared with SBP <120 mm Hg. For total stroke mortality, the corresponding HRs were 1.29 (1.02-1.64), 1.37 (1.09-1.72) and 1.52 (1.20-1.93), while for IHD mortality, the corresponding HRs were 0.90 (0.64-1.26), 0.86 (0.62-1.19) and 1.29 (0.93-1.78), respectively. Non-linear associations were significant for IHD.

CONCLUSIONS

In the elderly Korean population, SBPs of 130-139 mm Hg elevated total stroke mortality, but not IHD mortality, compared with normal blood pressure, and a linear association was not observed for IHD mortality in the range <140 mm Hg.