Populating an economic model with health state utility values: moving toward better practice

Autograft or allograft for reconstruction of anterior cruciate ligament: a health economics perspective

PURPOSE

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of allografts versus autografts in the reconstruction of anterior cruciate ligaments.

METHODS

Systematic review of comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis.

RESULTS

Both autograft and allograft reconstruction are highly effective. Recent studies show little difference in failure rates between autografts and allografts (about 6% and 7%, respectively). In cost-effectiveness analysis, the price differential is the main factor, making autografts the first choice. However, there will be situations, particularly in revision ACL reconstruction, where an allograft may be preferred, or may be the only reasonable option available.

CONCLUSION

In ACL reconstruction, clinical results with autografts are as good as or slightly better than with allografts. Allografts cost more, indicating that autografts are more cost-effective and should usually be first choice.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

II.

The Primary-Secondary Care Partnership to Improve Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (PSP-CKD) Study: A Cluster Randomized Trial in Primary Care

BACKGROUND

Most patients with CKD are managed in the community. Whether nurse-led CKD management programs improve outcomes in patients with CKD in primary care is unclear.

METHODS

To assess the effect of such a program on the rate of renal function decline in patients with CKD (stages 3-5) in primary care in the United Kingdom, we conducted a cluster randomized trial, the Primary-Secondary Care Partnership to Improve Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease study. A software program designed for the study created a data file of patients with CKD in participating practices. In 23 intervention practices (11,651 patients), a CKD nurse practitioner worked with nominated practice leads to interpret the data file and implement guideline-based patient-level CKD management interventions. The 23 control practices (11,706 patients) received a data file but otherwise, continued usual CKD care. The primary outcome was defined at the cluster (practice) level as the change from baseline of the mean eGFR of the patients with CKD at 6-month intervals up to 42 months. Secondary outcomes included numbers of patients coded for CKD, mean BP, numbers of patients achieving National Institute for Health and Care Excellence BP targets for CKD, and proteinuria measurement.

RESULTS

After 42 months, eGFR did not differ significantly between control and intervention groups. CKD- and proteinuria-related coding improved significantly along with the number of patients achieving BP targets in the intervention group versus usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD management programs in primary care may not slow progression of CKD, but they may significantly improve processes of care and potentially decrease the cardiovascular disease burden in CKD and related costs.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound and/or colour duplex ultrasound for surveillance after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is less invasive than open surgery, but may be associated with important complications. Patients receiving EVAR require long-term surveillance to detect abnormalities and direct treatments. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) has been the most common imaging modality adopted for EVAR surveillance, but it is associated with repeated radiation exposure and the risk of contrast-related nephropathy. Colour duplex ultrasound (CDU) and, more recently, contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEU) have been suggested as possible, safer, alternatives to CTA.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of imaging strategies, using either CDU or CEU alone or in conjunction with plain radiography, compared with CTA for EVAR surveillance.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases were searched, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, Scopus' Articles-in-Press, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and NHS Economic Evaluation Database from 1996 onwards. We also searched for relevant ongoing studies and conference proceedings. The final searches were undertaken in September 2016.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials and cohort studies of patients with AAAs who were receiving surveillance using CTA, CDU and CEU with or without plain radiography. Three reviewers were involved in the study selection, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment. We developed a Markov model based on five surveillance strategies: (1) annual CTA; (2) annual CDU; (3) annual CEU; (4) CDU together with CTA at 1 year, followed by CDU on an annual basis; and (5) CEU together with CTA at 1 year, followed by CEU on an annual basis. All of these strategies also considered plain radiography on an annual basis.

RESULTS

We identified two non-randomised comparative studies and 25 cohort studies of interventions, and nine systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy. Overall, the proportion of patients who required reintervention ranged from 1.1% (mean follow-up of 24 months) to 23.8% (mean follow-up of 32 months). Reintervention was mainly required for patients with thrombosis and types I-III endoleaks. All-cause mortality ranged from 2.7% (mean follow-up of 24 months) to 42% (mean follow-up of 54.8 months). Aneurysm-related mortality occurred in < 1% of the participants. Strategies based on early and mid-term CTA and/or CDU and long-term CDU surveillance were broadly comparable with those based on a combination of CTA and CDU throughout the follow-up period in terms of clinical complications, reinterventions and mortality. The economic evaluation showed that a CDU-based strategy generated lower expected costs and higher quality-adjusted life-year (QALYs) than a CTA-based strategy and has a 63% probability of being cost-effective at a £30,000 willingness-to-pay-per-QALY threshold. A CEU-based strategy generated more QALYs, but at higher costs, and became cost-effective only for high-risk patient groups.

LIMITATIONS

Most studies were rated as being at a high or moderate risk of bias. No studies compared CDU with CEU. Substantial clinical heterogeneity precluded a formal synthesis of results. The economic model was hindered by a lack of suitable data.

CONCLUSIONS

Current surveillance practice is very heterogeneous. CDU may be a safe and cost-effective alternative to CTA, with CTA being reserved for abnormal/inconclusive CDU cases.

FUTURE WORK

Research is needed to validate the safety of modified, more-targeted surveillance protocols based on the use of CDU and CEU. The role of radiography for surveillance after EVAR requires clarification.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016036475.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Everolimus, lutetium-177 DOTATATE and sunitinib for advanced, unresectable or metastatic neuroendocrine tumours with disease progression: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are a group of heterogeneous cancers that develop in cells in the diffuse neuroendocrine system.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the clinical effectiveness of three interventions [everolimus (Afinitor^®; Novartis International AG, Basel, Switzerland), lutetium-177 DOTATATE (177Lu-DOTATATE) (Lutathera^®; Imaging Equipment Ltd, Radstock, UK) and sunitinib (Sutent^®; Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USA)] for treating unresectable or metastatic NETs with disease progression and establish the cost-effectiveness of these interventions.

DATA SOURCES

The following databases were searched from inception to May 2016: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, MEDLINE Daily, Epub Ahead of Print, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Web of Science.

REVIEW METHODS

We systematically reviewed the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness literature on everolimus, 177Lu-DOTATATE and sunitinib for treating advanced, unresectable or metastatic progressive NETs. The following NET locations were considered separately: pancreas, gastrointestinal (GI) tract and lung, and GI tract (midgut only). We wrote a survival partition cohort-based economic evaluation in Microsoft Excel^® 2013 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA) from the UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. This comprised three health states: (1) progression-free survival (PFS), (2) progressed disease and (3) death.

RESULTS

Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs), RADIANT-3 [RAD001 in Advanced Neuroendocrine Tumors, Third Trial; pancreatic NETs (pNETs): everolimus vs. best supportive care (BSC)], A6181111 (pNETs: sunitinib vs. BSC) and RADIANT-4 (RAD001 in Advanced Neuroendocrine Tumors, Fourth Trial; GI and lung NETs: everolimus vs. BSC), met the inclusion criteria for the clinical effectiveness systematic review. The risk of bias was low. Although the NETTER-1 (Neuroendocrine Tumors Therapy) RCT, of 177Lu-DOTATATE plus 30 mg of octreotide (Sandostatin^®, Novartis) compared with 60 mg of octreotide, was excluded from the review, we nonetheless present the results of this trial, as it informs our estimate of the cost-effectiveness of 177Lu-DOTATATE. The pNETs trials consistently found that the interventions improved PFS and overall survival (OS) compared with BSC. Our indirect comparison found no significant difference in PFS between everolimus and sunitinib. Estimates of OS gain were confounded because of high rates of treatment switching. After adjustment, our indirect comparison suggested a lower, but non-significant, hazard of death for sunitinib compared with everolimus. In GI and lung NETs, everolimus significantly improved PFS compared with BSC and showed a non-significant trend towards improved OS compared with BSC. Adverse events were more commonly reported following treatment with targeted interventions than after treatment with BSC. In the base case for pNETs, assuming list prices, we estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for everolimus compared with BSC of £45,493 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and for sunitinib compared with BSC of £20,717 per QALY. These ICERs increased substantially without the adjustment for treatment switching. For GI and lung NETs, we estimated an ICER for everolimus compared with BSC of £44,557 per QALY. For GI (midgut) NETs, the ICERs were £199,233 per QALY for everolimus compared with BSC and £62,158 per QALY for a scenario analysis comparing 177Lu-DOTATATE with BSC. We judge that no treatment meets the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) end-of-life criteria, although we cannot rule out that sunitinib in the A6181111 trial does.

LIMITATIONS

A RCT with included comparators was not identified for 177Lu-DOTATATE. The indirect treatment comparison that our economic analysis was based on was of a simple Bucher type, unadjusted for any differences in the baseline characteristics across the two trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Given NICE's current stated range of £20,000-30,000 per QALY for the cost-effectiveness threshold, based on list prices, only sunitinib might be considered good value for money in England and Wales.

FUTURE WORK

Further analysis of individual patient data from RADIANT-3 would allow assessment of the robustness of our findings. The data were not made available to us by the company sponsoring the trial.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041303.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Selecting pregnant or postpartum women with suspected pulmonary embolism for diagnostic imaging: the DiPEP diagnostic study with decision-analysis modelling

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a leading cause of death in pregnancy and post partum, but the symptoms of PE are common in normal pregnancy. Simple diagnostic tests are needed to select women for diagnostic imaging.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the accuracy, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers for selecting pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for imaging.

DESIGN

An expert consensus study to develop new clinical decision rules, a case-control study of women with a diagnosed PE or a suspected PE, a biomarker study of women with a suspected PE or diagnosed deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and decision-analysis modelling.

SETTING

Emergency departments and consultant-led maternity units.

PARTICIPANTS

Pregnant/postpartum women with a diagnosed PE from any hospital reporting to the UK Obstetric Surveillance System research platform and pregnant/postpartum women with a suspected PE or diagnosed DVT at 11 prospectively recruiting sites.

INTERVENTIONS

Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity, specificity, area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health-care costs.

RESULTS

The primary analysis involved 181 women with PE and 259 women without PE in the case-control study and 18 women with DVT, 18 with PE and 247 women without either in the biomarker study. Most clinical features showed no association with PE. The AUROC curves for the clinical decision rules were as follows: primary consensus, 0.626; sensitive consensus, 0.620; specific consensus, 0.589; PE rule-out criteria, 0.621; simplified Geneva score, 0.579; Wells's PE criteria (permissive), 0.577; and Wells's PE criteria (strict), 0.732. The sensitivities and specificities of the D-dimer measurement were 88.4% and 8.8%, respectively, using a standard threshold, and 69.8% and 32.8%, respectively, using a pregnancy-specific threshold. Previous venous thromboembolism, long-haul travel, multiple pregnancy, oxygen saturation, recent surgery, temperature and PE-related chest radiograph abnormality were predictors of PE on multivariable analysis. We were unable to derive a rule through multivariable analysis or recursive partitioning with adequate accuracy. The AUROC curves for the biomarkers were as follows: activated partial thromboplastin time - 0.669, B-type natriuretic peptide - 0.549, C-reactive protein - 0.542, Clauss fibrinogen - 0.589, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay D-dimer - 0.668, Innovance D-dimer (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Products GmbH, distributed by Sysmex UK Ltd, Milton Keynes, UK) - 0.651, mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP) - 0.524, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 - 0.562, plasmin-antiplasmin - 0.639, Prothombin time - 0.613, thrombin generation lag time - 0.702, thrombin generation endogenous potential - 0.559, thrombin generation peak - 0.596, thrombin generation time to peak - 0.655, tissue factor - 0.531 and troponin - 0.597. The repeat analysis excluding women who had received anticoagulation was limited by the small number of women with PE (n = 4). The health economic analysis showed that a strategy of scanning all women with a suspected PE accrued more QALYs and incurred fewer costs than any selective strategy based on a clinical decision rule and was therefore the dominant strategy.

LIMITATIONS

The findings apply specifically to the diagnostic assessment of women with a suspected PE in secondary care.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers do not accurately, effectively or cost-effectively select pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for diagnostic imaging.

FUTURE WORK

New diagnostic technologies need to be developed to detect PE in pregnancy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21245595.

FUNDING DETAILS

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 47. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Multiparametric MRI to improve detection of prostate cancer compared with transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy alone: the PROMIS study

BACKGROUND

Men with suspected prostate cancer usually undergo transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy. TRUS-guided biopsy can cause side effects and has relatively poor diagnostic accuracy. Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) used as a triage test might allow men to avoid unnecessary TRUS-guided biopsy and improve diagnostic accuracy.

OBJECTIVES

To (1) assess the ability of mpMRI to identify men who can safely avoid unnecessary biopsy, (2) assess the ability of the mpMRI-based pathway to improve the rate of detection of clinically significant (CS) cancer compared with TRUS-guided biopsy and (3) estimate the cost-effectiveness of a mpMRI-based diagnostic pathway.

DESIGN

A validating paired-cohort study and an economic evaluation using a decision-analytic model.

SETTING

Eleven NHS hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Men at risk of prostate cancer undergoing a first prostate biopsy.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants underwent three tests: (1) mpMRI (the index test), (2) TRUS-guided biopsy (the current standard) and (3) template prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy (the reference test).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnostic accuracy of mpMRI, TRUS-guided biopsy and TPM-biopsy measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) using primary and secondary definitions of CS cancer. The percentage of negative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans was used to identify men who might be able to avoid biopsy.

RESULTS

Diagnostic study - a total of 740 men were registered and 576 underwent all three tests. According to TPM-biopsy, the prevalence of any cancer was 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67% to 75%]. The prevalence of CS cancer according to the primary definition (a Gleason score of ≥ 4 + 3 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 6 mm) was 40% (95% CI 36% to 44%). For CS cancer, TRUS-guided biopsy showed a sensitivity of 48% (95% CI 42% to 55%), specificity of 96% (95% CI 94% to 98%), PPV of 90% (95% CI 83% to 94%) and NPV of 74% (95% CI 69% to 78%). The sensitivity of mpMRI was 93% (95% CI 88% to 96%), specificity was 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%), PPV was 51% (95% CI 46% to 56%) and NPV was 89% (95% CI 83% to 94%). A negative mpMRI scan was recorded for 158 men (27%). Of these, 17 were found to have CS cancer on TPM-biopsy. Economic evaluation - the most cost-effective strategy involved testing all men with mpMRI, followed by MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy in those patients with suspected CS cancer, followed by rebiopsy if CS cancer was not detected. This strategy is cost-effective at the TRUS-guided biopsy definition 2 (any Gleason pattern of ≥ 4 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 4 mm), mpMRI definition 2 (lesion volume of ≥ 0.2 ml and/or Gleason score of ≥ 3 + 4) and cut-off point 2 (likely to be benign) and detects 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) of CS cancers. The main drivers of cost-effectiveness were the unit costs of tests, the improvement in sensitivity of MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy compared with blind TRUS-guided biopsy and the longer-term costs and outcomes of men with cancer.

LIMITATIONS

The PROstate Magnetic resonance Imaging Study (PROMIS) was carried out in a selected group and excluded men with a prostate volume of > 100 ml, who are less likely to have cancer. The limitations in the economic modelling arise from the limited evidence on the long-term outcomes of men with prostate cancer and on the sensitivity of MRI-targeted repeat biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating mpMRI into the diagnostic pathway as an initial test prior to prostate biopsy may (1) reduce the proportion of men having unnecessary biopsies, (2) improve the detection of CS prostate cancer and (3) increase the cost-effectiveness of the prostate cancer diagnostic and therapeutic pathway. The PROMIS data set will be used for future research; this is likely to include modelling prognostic factors for CS cancer, optimising MRI scan sequencing and biomarker or translational research analyses using the blood and urine samples collected. Better-quality evidence on long-term outcomes in prostate cancer under the various management strategies is required to better assess cost-effectiveness. The value-of-information analysis should be developed further to assess new research to commission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16082556 and NCT01292291.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This project was also supported and partially funded by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London (UCL) Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and UCL and by The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research Biomedical Research Centre and was co-ordinated by the Medical Research Council's Clinical Trials Unit at UCL (grant code MC_UU_12023/28). It was sponsored by UCL. Funding for the additional collection of blood and urine samples for translational research was provided by Prostate Cancer UK.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pertuzumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy Compared to Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in the Adjuvant Treatment of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The APHINITY trial assessed the effectiveness and the safety of adding pertuzumab to trastuzumab and chemotherapy (THP) compared to trastuzumab and chemotherapy (TH) in the adjuvant management of human epidermal growth factor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer. We performed a study to project the potential cost-effectiveness of THP vs. TH.

STUDY DESIGN

Trial-based cost-utility modeling analysis.

METHODS

We performed an economic evaluation from a payer perspective using a Markov model with six health states: invasive disease-free survival, non-metastatic recurrence, remission, first-line metastatic, subsequent line metastatic, and death. We parameterized the model using data from both arms in APHINITY extrapolated to a patient's lifetime horizon. Estimates of health state utilities were based on EQ-5D trial data and the literature, and costs were estimated from government sources and the published literature. The primary outcomes of the model were life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Uncertainty was addressed via univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

For the intention-to-treat population, the model projected improved outcomes (by 0.50 LYs and 0.45 QALYs) and increased costs (by $74 420) for ICERs of $147 774/LY gained and $167 185/QALY gained for PHT vs. HT patients. In the node-positive patient population, the model projected improved outcomes (by 0.86 LYs and 0.76 QALYs) and increased costs (by $66 647) for ICERs of $77 684/LY gained and $87 929/QALY gained. For the hormone-receptor-negative patient population, the model projected health gains, increased costs, and ICERs of $147 022/LY gained and $166 518/QALY gained. The results were sensitive to changes in the model time horizon.

CONCLUSION

The addition of pertuzumab to the available regimens for HER2+ early breast cancer is likely to be cost-effective for patients in the U.S. at high risk of recurrence.

Estimating Joint Health Condition Utility Values

OBJECTIVES

To predict health state utility values (HSUVs) for individuals with up to 4 conditions simultaneously.

METHODS

Person-level data were taken from the General Practice Patient Survey, a national survey of adult patients registered with general practices in England. Individuals reported whether they had any 1 of 16 chronic conditions and completed the 3-level EuroQol 5-dimensional questionnaire. Four nonparametric methods (additive, multiplicative, minimum, and the adjusted decrement estimator) and 1 parametric estimator (the linear index) were used to predict HSUVs for individuals with a joint health condition (JHC). Predicted and actual utility scores were compared for precision using root mean square error and mean absolute error. Bias was assessed using mean error.

RESULTS

The analysis included 929,565 individuals, of which 30.5% had at least 2 conditions. Of the nonparametric estimators, the multiplicative approach produced estimates with the lowest bias and most precision for 2 JHCs. For populations with a long-term mental health condition within the JHC, the multiplicative approach overestimated utility scores. All nonparametric methods produced biased results when estimating HSUVs for 3 or 4 JHCs. The linear index generally produced unbiased results with the highest precision.

CONCLUSIONS

The multiplicative approach was the best nonparametric estimator when estimating HSUVs for 2 JHCs. None of the nonparametric approaches for estimating HSUVs can be recommended with more than 2 JHCs. The linear index was found to have good predictive properties but needs external validation before being recommended for routine use.

Valuing the health states associated with breast cancer screening programmes: A systematic review of economic measures

Policy decisions regarding breast cancer screening and treatment programmes may be misplaced unless the decision process includes the appropriate utilities and disutilities of mammography screening and its sequelae. The objectives of this study were to critically review how economic evaluations have valued the health states associated with breast cancer screening, and appraise the primary evidence informing health state utility values (cardinal measures of quality of life). A systematic review was conducted up to September 2018 of studies that elicited or used utilities relevant to mammography screening. The methods used to elicit utilities and the quality of the reported values were tabulated and analysed narratively. 40 economic evaluations of breast cancer screening programmes and 10 primary studies measuring utilities for health states associated with mammography were reviewed in full. The economic evaluations made different assumptions about the measures used, duration applied and the sequalae included in each health state. 22 evaluations referenced utilities based on assumptions or used measures that were not methodologically appropriate. There was significant heterogeneity in the utilities generated by the 10 primary studies, including the methods and population used to derive them. No study asked women to explicitly consider the risk of overdiagnosis when valuing the health states described. Utilities informing breast screening policy are restricted in their ability to reflect the full benefits and harms. Evaluating the true cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening will remain problematic, unless the methodological challenges associated with valuing the disutilities of screening are adequately addressed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of English memory assessment services 2 years after first consultation for patients with dementia

OBJECTIVES

This paper aims to compare changes over 2 years in patients' health-related quality of life (HRQL) with the health and social care costs of diagnosis and treatment of people newly referred to memory assessment services (MAS).

METHODS

We analysed observational data from 1318 patients referred to 69 MAS who completed resource use and HRQL questionnaires at baseline 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. We reported mean differences in HRQL (disease-specific DEMQOL and generic EQ-5D-3 L), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and cost-effectiveness between baseline, and 2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Two years after referral to MAS, patients reported a higher DEMQOL score (mean gain 4.47, 95% confidence interval, 3.08-5.90) and EQ-5D-3 L (0.014, -0.011 to 0.039). Mean total costs and QALYs over 24 months was £2411 (£1721-£2873) and 0.027 (0.003-0.051), respectively. Assuming that patients' HRQL would not have altered over the 2 years had they not attended MAS, these outcomes suggest an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £89 546 (£38 123-£145 864) based on changes in EQ-5D-3 L. If we assumed that patients' HRQL would have declined by about 10% over this period had they not attended MAS, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be £25 056. The largest MAS (N = 32; 46%) with over 50 new patients a month were more likely to be cost-effective than smaller ones (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

MAS are effective and can be cost-effective for diagnosing and treating people with suspected dementia. Large variations in costs between clinics suggest that many MAS could improve their cost-effectiveness.

Identification, Review, and Use of Health State Utilities in Cost-Effectiveness Models: An ISPOR Good Practices for Outcomes Research Task Force Report

Cost-effectiveness models that present results in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year for health technologies are used to inform policy decisions in many parts of the world. Health state utilities (HSUs) are required to calculate the quality-adjusted life-years. Even when clinical studies assessing the effectiveness of health technologies collect data on HSUs to populate a cost-effectiveness model, which rarely happens, analysts typically need to identify at least some additional HSUs from alternative sources. When possible, HSUs are identified by a systematic review of the literature, but, again, this rarely happens. In 2014, ISPOR established a Good Practices for Outcome Research Task Force to address the use of HSUs in cost-effectiveness models. This task force report provides recommendations for researchers who identify, review, and synthesize HSUs for use in cost-effectiveness models; analysts who use the results in models; and reviewers who critically appraise the suitability and validity of the HSUs selected for use in models. The associated Minimum Reporting Standards of Systematic Review of Utilities for Cost-Effectiveness checklist created by the task force provides criteria to judge the appropriateness of the HSUs selected for use in cost-effectiveness models and is suitable for use in different international settings.

The cost-effectiveness of osteochondral allograft transplantation in the knee

PURPOSE

Osteochondral allografts (OCA) consist of a layer of hyaline cartilage and a layer of underlying bone. They are used to repair combined defects of articular cartilage and bone. Such defects often occur in people far too young to have knee arthroplasty, for whom the main alternative to OCA is conservative symptomatic care, which will not prevent development of osteoarthritis. The aim of this report was to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteochondral allograft transplantation in the knee.

METHODS

Systematic review of evidence on clinical effectiveness and economic modelling.

RESULTS

The evidence on osteochondral allograft transplantation comes from observational studies, but often based on good quality prospective registries of all patients having such surgery. Without controlled trials, it was necessary to use historical cohorts to assess the effect of osteochondral grafts. There is good evidence that OCA are clinically effective with a high graft survival rate over 20 years. If an OCA graft fails, there is some evidence that revision with a second OCA is also effective, though less so than primary OCA. Economic modelling showed that osteochondral allograft transplantation was highly cost-effective, with costs per quality adjusted life year much lower than many other treatments considered cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Osteochondral allograft transplantation appears highly cost-effective though the cost per quality adjusted life year varies according to the widely varying costs of allografts. Based on one small study, revision OCA also appears very cost-effective, but more evidence is needed.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

II.

Pembrolizumab for Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

Pembrolizumab is an intravenously administered monoclonal antibody licensed for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma after platinum-containing chemotherapy. This summary presents the perspective of Warwick Evidence, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) appointed by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for the single technology appraisal of pembrolizumab for this indication. Pembrolizumab is manufactured by Merck, Sharp and Dohme (MSD). The major source of clinical effectiveness was the KEYNOTE-045 trial, where 542 patients received either pembrolizumab or clinician's choice of docetaxel, paclitaxel or vinflunine as a second-line treatment. No indirect treatment comparison was performed. The clinical effectiveness was assessed using hazard ratios for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of the intention-to-treat (ITT) population, together with the subpopulations positive for programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression (combined positive score [CPS] ≥ 1%) and strongly positive for PD-L1 expression (CPS ≥ 10%). In the ITT population, OS improved with pembrolizumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.91) while PFS outcomes showed no difference (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.81-1.19). Pembrolizumab demonstrated a better safety profile than its combined comparators, with fewer patients experiencing adverse events (60.9 vs 90.2%). Similar results were observed in populations expressing PD-L1. MSD estimated the cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab using a de novo partitioned survival model. The model had three health states: pre-progression, post-progression and death, where OS and PFS estimates excluded patients who received vinflunine. The largest uncertainty was over the selection of the parametric models used to extrapolate OS and PFS and the time point for when to begin their extrapolation. The company preferences for extrapolation were not well supported and the ERG disagreed with their selection for OS. Utility values were also contentious, with the company preferring to use pooled time-to-death-based utilities pooled across treatment arms, whilst the ERG preferred pooled progression-based utilities. The company preferred to use data from patients receiving vinflunine when calculating the utility values, which the ERG disagreed with as this is not recommended treatment within the UK. The company assumed a lifetime treatment effect for their model; however, the lack of evidence made it difficult to confidently provide a realistic estimate of treatment effect duration. Various durations were explored (3, 5 and 10 years). The first appraisal committee meeting concluded that pembrolizumab was not cost effective, largely due to uncertainty in the OS and PFS extrapolations. The company's second submission included an additional 4 months follow-up to survival data. The company in this new submission maintained their original assumptions in their base-case analysis, changing only the choice of parametric curve for PFS. This change resulted in the OS and PFS curves intersecting at 6 years in the pembrolizumab arm, at which point PFS identically followed OS. This resulted in no patients in the post-progression health state beyond this time point, and therefore, the majority of pembrolizumab's benefit came from pre-progression survival. Given the unclear PFS benefit, the ERG found this implausible and maintained their original base-case model assumptions. Considerable uncertainty remained over the specification of the extrapolations and the duration of treatment effect. Based on a new-value proposition submitted by the company, the appraisal committee concluded that pembrolizumab had plausible potential to be cost effective. Pembrolizumab was referred for funding through the Cancer Drugs Fund, so that further data could be collected with the aim of diminishing the outstanding uncertainties pertaining to its clinical effectiveness.

Model Structuring for Economic Evaluations of New Health Technologies

In countries such as Australia, the UK and Canada, decisions on whether to fund new health technologies are commonly informed by decision analytic models. While the impact of making inappropriate structural choices/assumptions on model predictions is well noted, there is a lack of clarity about the definition of key structural aspects, the process of developing model structure (including the development of conceptual models) and uncertainty associated with the structuring process (structural uncertainty) in guidelines developed by national funding bodies. This forms the focus of this article. Building on the reports of good modelling practice, and recognising the fundamental role of model structuring within the model development process, we specified key structural choices and provided ideas about model structuring for the future direction. This will help to further standardise guidelines developed by national funding bodies, with potential impact on transparency, comprehensiveness and consistency of model structuring. We argue that the process of model structuring and structural sensitivity analysis should be documented in a more systematic and transparent way in submissions to national funding bodies. Within the decision-making process, the development of conceptual models and presentation of all key structural choices would mean that national funding bodies could be more confident of maximising value for money when making public funding decisions.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of plant sterol or stanol-enriched functional foods as a primary prevention strategy for people with cardiovascular disease risk in England: a modeling study

This study appraises the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of consumption of plant sterol-enriched margarine-type spreads for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with hypercholesterolemia in England, compared to a normal diet. A nested Markov model was employed using the perspective of the British National Health Service (NHS). Effectiveness outcomes were the 10-year CVD risk of individuals with mild (4-6 mmol/l) and high (above 6 mmol/l) cholesterol by gender and age groups (45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-85 years); CVD events avoided and QALY gains over 20 years. This study found that daily consumption of enriched spread reduces CVD risks more for men and older age groups. Assuming 50% compliance, 69 CVD events per 10,000 men and 40 CVD events per 10,000 women would be saved over 20 years. If the NHS pays the excess cost of enriched spreads, for the high-cholesterol group, the probability of enriched spreads being cost-effective is 100% for men aged over 64 years and women over 74, at £20,000/QALY threshold. Probabilities of cost-effectiveness are lower at younger ages, with mildly elevated cholesterol and over a 10-year time horizon. If consumers bear the full cost of enriched spreads, NHS savings arise from reduced CVD events.

The Trade-Off between Optimizing Flight Patterns and Human Health: A Case Study of Aircraft Noise in Queens, NY, USA

Objectives: Airports in the U.S. have gradually been transitioning to automated flight systems. These systems generate new flight paths over populated areas. While they can improve flight efficiency, the increased noise associated with these novel flight patterns potentially pose serious health threats to the overflown communities. In this case study, we estimated the monetary benefits relative to health losses associated with one significant change in flight patterns at LaGuardia Airport, year-round use of “TNNIS Climb”, which happened in 2012 as a result of flight automation in New York City. Prior to that, the use of the TNNIS Climb was limited to the U.S. Open tennis matches. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model using Markov health states to compare the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained associated with the limited use of TNNIS (old status quo) and the year-round use of TNNIS (current status quo). The TNNIS Climb increases airplane noise to above 60 decibels (dB) over some of the most densely populated areas of the city. We used this increased exposure to noise as the basis for estimating ground-level health using data from sound monitors. The total costs (including both direct and indirect costs), QALYs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated for the limited versus the year-round use of the TNNIS Climb. Results: The incremental lifetime costs and QALYs per person exposed to noise associated with the limited versus the year-round use of TNNIS was $11,288, and 1.13, respectively. Therefore, the limited use of TNNIS had an ICER of $10,006/QALY gained relative to the year-round of TNNIS. Our analyses were robust to changes in assumptions and data inputs. Conclusions: Despite increases in efficiency, flight automation systems without a careful assessment of noise might generate flight paths over densely populated areas and cause serious health conditions for the overflown communities.

Risk scores to guide referral decisions for people with suspected ovarian cancer in secondary care: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is the sixth most common cancer in UK women and can be difficult to diagnose, particularly in the early stages. Risk-scoring can help to guide referral to specialist centres.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of risk scores to guide referral decisions for women with suspected ovarian cancer in secondary care.

METHODS

Twenty-one databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched from inception to November 2016. Review methods followed published guidelines. The meta-analysis using weighted averages and random-effects modelling was used to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The cost-effectiveness analysis considered the long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with different risk-scoring methods, and subsequent care pathways. Modelling comprised a decision tree and a Markov model. The decision tree was used to model short-term outcomes and the Markov model was used to estimate the long-term costs and QALYs associated with treatment and progression.

RESULTS

Fifty-one diagnostic cohort studies were included in the systematic review. The Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA) score did not offer any advantage over the Risk of Malignancy Index 1 (RMI 1). Patients with borderline tumours or non-ovarian primaries appeared to account for disproportionately high numbers of false-negative, low-risk ROMA scores. (Confidential information has been removed.) To achieve similar levels of sensitivity to the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model and the International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) group's simple ultrasound rules, a very low RMI 1 decision threshold (25) would be needed; the summary sensitivity and specificity estimates for the RMI 1 at this threshold were 94.9% (95% CI 91.5% to 97.2%) and 51.1% (95% CI 47.0% to 55.2%), respectively. In the base-case analysis, RMI 1 (threshold of 250) was the least effective [16.926 life-years (LYs), 13.820 QALYs] and the second cheapest (£5669). The IOTA group's simple ultrasound rules (inconclusive, assumed to be malignant) were the cheapest (£5667) and the second most effective [16.954 LYs, 13.841 QALYs], dominating RMI 1. The ADNEX model (threshold of 10%), costing £5699, was the most effective (16.957 LYs, 13.843 QALYs), and compared with the IOTA group's simple ultrasound rules, resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £15,304 per QALY gained. At thresholds of up to £15,304 per QALY gained, the IOTA group's simple ultrasound rules are cost-effective; the ADNEX model (threshold of 10%) is cost-effective for higher thresholds.

LIMITATIONS

Information on the downstream clinical consequences of risk-scoring was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the ADNEX model and the IOTA group's simple ultrasound rules may offer increased sensitivity relative to current practice (RMI 1); that is, more women with malignant tumours would be referred to a specialist multidisciplinary team, although more women with benign tumours would also be referred. The cost-effectiveness model supports prioritisation of sensitivity over specificity. Further research is needed on the clinical consequences of risk-scoring.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016053326.

FUNDING DETAILS

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A systematic review and economic evaluation of adalimumab and dexamethasone for treating non-infectious intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis or panuveitis in adults

BACKGROUND

Non-infectious intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis and panuveitis are a heterogeneous group of inflammatory eye disorders. Management includes local and systemic corticosteroids, immunosuppressants and biological drugs.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of subcutaneous adalimumab (Humira^®; AbbVie Ltd, Maidenhead, UK) and a dexamethasone intravitreal implant (Ozurdex^®; Allergan Ltd, Marlow, UK) in adults with non-infectious intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis or panuveitis.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases and clinical trials registries including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform were searched to June 2016, with an update search carried out in October 2016.

REVIEW METHODS

Review methods followed published guidelines. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone and adalimumab, each compared with current practice, from a NHS and Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective over a lifetime horizon, parameterised with published evidence. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. Substantial sensitivity analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

Of the 134 full-text articles screened, three studies (four articles) were included in the clinical effectiveness review. Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) [VISUAL I (active uveitis) and VISUAL II (inactive uveitis)] compared adalimumab with placebo, with limited standard care also provided in both arms. Time to treatment failure (reduced visual acuity, intraocular inflammation, new vascular lesions) was longer in the adalimumab group than in the placebo group, with a hazard ratio of 0.50 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36 to 0.70; p < 0.001] in the VISUAL I trial and 0.57 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.84; p = 0.004) in the VISUAL II trial. The adalimumab group showed a significantly greater improvement than the placebo group in the 25-item Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ-25) composite score in the VISUAL I trial (mean difference 4.20; p = 0.010) but not the VISUAL II trial (mean difference 2.12; p = 0.16). Some systemic adverse effects occurred more frequently with adalimumab than with placebo. One RCT [HURON (active uveitis)] compared a single 0.7-mg dexamethasone implant against a sham procedure, with limited standard care also provided in both arms. Dexamethasone provided significant benefits over the sham procedure at 8 and 26 weeks in the percentage of patients with a vitreous haze score of zero (p < 0.014), the mean best corrected visual acuity improvement (p ≤ 0.002) and the percentage of patients with a ≥ 5-point improvement in VFQ-25 score (p < 0.05). Raised intraocular pressure and cataracts occurred more frequently with dexamethasone than with the sham procedure. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for one dexamethasone implant in one eye for a combination of patients with unilateral and bilateral uveitis compared with limited current practice, as per the HURON trial, was estimated to be £19,509 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The ICER of adalimumab for patients with mainly bilateral uveitis compared with limited current practice, as per the VISUAL trials, was estimated to be £94,523 and £317,547 per QALY gained in active and inactive uveitis respectively. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the rate of blindness has the biggest impact on the model results. The interventions may be more cost-effective in populations in which there is a greater risk of blindness.

LIMITATIONS

The clinical trials did not fully reflect clinical practice. Thirteen additional studies of clinically relevant comparator treatments were identified; however, network meta-analysis was not feasible. The model results are highly uncertain because of the limited evidence base.

CONCLUSIONS

Two RCTs of systemic adalimumab and one RCT of a unilateral, single dexamethasone implant showed significant benefits over placebo or a sham procedure. The ICERs for adalimumab were estimated to be above generally accepted thresholds for cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone was estimated to fall below standard thresholds. However, there is substantial uncertainty around the model assumptions. In future work, primary research should compare dexamethasone and adalimumab with current treatments over the long term and in important subgroups and consider how short-term improvements relate to long-term effects on vision.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041799.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Immunosuppressive agents in adult kidney transplantation in the National Health Service: a model-based economic evaluation

Background

Immunosuppression is required in kidney transplantation to prevent rejection and prolong graft survival. We conducted an economic evaluation to support England's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in developing updated guidance on the use of immunosuppression, incorporating new immunosuppressive agents, and addressing changes in pricing and the evidence base.

Methods

A discrete-time state transition model was developed to simulate adult kidney transplant patients over their lifetime. A total of 16 different regimens were modelled to assess the cost-effectiveness of basiliximab and rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin (rabbit ATG) as induction agents (with no antibody induction as a comparator) and immediate-release tacrolimus, prolonged-release tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus, everolimus and belatacept as maintenance agents (with ciclosporin and azathioprine as comparators). Graft survival was extrapolated from acute rejection rates, graft function and post-transplant diabetes rates, all estimated at 12 months post-transplantation. National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services costs were included. Cost-effectiveness thresholds of £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life year were used.

Results

Basiliximab was predicted to be more effective and less costly than rabbit ATG and induction without antibodies. Immediate-release tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil were cost-effective as maintenance therapies. Other therapies were either more expensive and less effective or would only be cost-effective if a threshold in excess of £100 000 per quality-adjusted life year were used.

Conclusions

A regimen comprising induction with basiliximab, followed by maintenance therapy with immediate-release tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil, is likely to be effective for uncomplicated adult kidney transplant patients and a cost-effective use of NHS resources.

PCSK9 inhibitor valuation: A science-based review of the two recent models

Low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL‐C) has been extensively evaluated. Prospective cohort studies, randomized controlled trials, biology, pathophysiology, genetics, and Mendelian randomization studies, have clearly taught us that LDL‐C causes atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The newest class of drugs to lower LDL‐C, the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies, have been found to safely reduce LDL‐C approximately 60% when added to high‐intensity statin therapy. Because their cost is much greater than that of the currently available agents, their value has been questioned. In late August, 2017, two groups assessed the value of this class of drugs looking at cost‐effectiveness; however, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review and Fonarow and colleagues found disparate results when assessing PCSK9 valuation. Herein, we review the evolution of LDL‐C from hypothesis to fact, and then attempt to adjudicate the 2 models, shedding light on the complex modeling process. We find that models of cost‐effectiveness are helpful adjuncts to decision making, but that their conclusions depend on many assumptions. Ultimately, clinician judgment regarding their clinical benefit, balanced by some estimation of cost, may be more productive to target the right patients for whom the benefits can be well‐justified.

Immunosuppressive therapy for kidney transplantation in adults: a systematic review and economic model

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring renal replacement therapy: kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation, followed by immunosuppressive therapy (induction and maintenance therapy) to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival.

OBJECTIVES

To review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd) and rabbit anti-human thymocyte immunoglobulin (rATG) (Thymoglobulin(®), Sanofi) as induction therapy, and immediate-release tacrolimus (TAC) (Adoport(®), Sandoz; Capexion(®), Mylan; Modigraf(®), Astellas Pharma; Perixis(®), Accord Healthcare; Prograf(®), Astellas Pharma; Tacni(®), Teva; Vivadex(®), Dexcel Pharma), prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf(®) Astellas Pharma), belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix(®), Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (Arzip(®), Zentiva; CellCept(®), Roche Products; Myfenax(®), Teva), mycophenolate sodium (MPS) (Myfortic(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd), sirolimus (SRL) (Rapamune(®), Pfizer) and everolimus (EVL) (Certican(®), Novartis) as maintenance therapy in adult renal transplantation.

METHODS

Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science (via ISI), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and the American Economic Association's electronic bibliography (via EconLit, EBSCOhost). Included studies were selected according to predefined methods and criteria. A random-effects model was used to analyse clinical effectiveness data (odds ratios for binary data and mean differences for continuous data). Network meta-analyses were undertaken within a Bayesian framework. A new discrete time-state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed, with acute rejection, graft function (GRF) and new-onset diabetes mellitus used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs), of variable quality, were included. For induction therapy, no treatment appeared more effective than another in reducing graft loss or mortality. Compared with placebo/no induction, rATG and BAS appeared more effective in reducing biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) and BAS appeared more effective at improving GRF. For maintenance therapy, no treatment was better for all outcomes and no treatment appeared most effective at reducing graft loss. BEL + MMF appeared more effective than TAC + MMF and SRL + MMF at reducing mortality. MMF + CSA (ciclosporin), TAC + MMF, SRL + TAC, TAC + AZA (azathioprine) and EVL + CSA appeared more effective than CSA + AZA and EVL + MPS at reducing BPAR. SRL + AZA, TAC + AZA, TAC + MMF and BEL + MMF appeared to improve GRF compared with CSA + AZA and MMF + CSA. In the base-case deterministic and probabilistic analyses, BAS, MMF and TAC were predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). When comparing all regimens, only BAS + TAC + MMF was cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY.

LIMITATIONS

For included trials, there was substantial methodological heterogeneity, few trials reported follow-up beyond 1 year, and there were insufficient data to perform subgroup analysis. Treatment discontinuation and switching were not modelled.

FUTURE WORK

High-quality, better-reported, longer-term RCTs are needed. Ideally, these would be sufficiently powered for subgroup analysis and include health-related quality of life as an outcome.

CONCLUSION

Only a regimen of BAS induction followed by maintenance with TAC and MMF is likely to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013189.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A systematic review and economic evaluation of bisphosphonates for the prevention of fragility fractures

BACKGROUND

Fragility fractures are fractures that result from mechanical forces that would not ordinarily result in fracture.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of bisphosphonates [alendronic acid (Fosamax^® and Fosamax^® Once Weekly, Merck Sharp & Dohme Ltd), risedronic acid (Actonel^® and Actonel Once a Week^®, Warner Chilcott UK Ltd), ibandronic acid (Bonviva^®, Roche Products Ltd) and zoledronic acid (Aclasta^®, Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd)] for the prevention of fragility fracture and to assess their cost-effectiveness at varying levels of fracture risk.

DATA SOURCES

For the clinical effectiveness review, six electronic databases and two trial registries were searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science and BIOSIS Previews, Clinicaltrials.gov and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Searches were limited by date from 2008 until September 2014.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. Discrete event simulation was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for each bisphosphonate treatment strategy and a strategy of no treatment for a simulated cohort of patients with heterogeneous characteristics. The model was populated with effectiveness evidence from the systematic review and NMA. All other parameters were estimated from published sources. A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Fracture risk was estimated from patient characteristics using the QFracture^® (QFracture-2012 open source revision 38, Clinrisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and FRAX^® (web version 3.9, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK) tools. The relationship between fracture risk and incremental net benefit (INB) was estimated using non-parametric regression. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty.

RESULTS

Forty-six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review, with 27 RCTs providing data for the fracture NMA and 35 RCTs providing data for the femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) NMA. All treatments had beneficial effects on fractures versus placebo, with hazard ratios varying from 0.41 to 0.92 depending on treatment and fracture type. The effects on vertebral fractures and percentage change in BMD were statistically significant for all treatments. There was no evidence of a difference in effect on fractures between bisphosphonates. A statistically significant difference in the incidence of influenza-like symptoms was identified from the RCTs for zoledronic acid compared with placebo. Reviews of observational studies suggest that upper gastrointestinal symptoms are frequently reported in the first month of oral bisphosphonate treatment, but pooled analyses of placebo-controlled trials found no statistically significant difference. A strategy of no treatment was estimated to have the maximum INB for patients with a 10-year QFracture risk under 1.5%, whereas oral bisphosphonates provided maximum INB at higher levels of risk. However, the PSA suggested that there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether or not no treatment is the optimal strategy until the QFracture score is around 5.5%. In the model using FRAX, the mean INBs were positive for all oral bisphosphonate treatments across all risk categories. Intravenous bisphosphonates were estimated to have lower INBs than oral bisphosphonates across all levels of fracture risk when estimated using either QFracture or FRAX.

LIMITATIONS

We assumed that all treatment strategies are viable alternatives across the whole population.

CONCLUSIONS

Bisphosphonates are effective in preventing fragility fractures. However, the benefit-to-risk ratio in the lowest-risk patients may be debatable given the low absolute QALY gains and the potential for adverse events. We plan to extend the analysis to include non-bisphosphonate therapies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013006883.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi - a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE(®) (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest(TM) (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry).

DATA SOURCES

Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty.

RESULTS

For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based.

LIMITATIONS

Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015016724.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Immunosuppressive therapy for kidney transplantation in children and adolescents: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation followed by induction and maintenance immunosuppressive therapy to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) and rabbit antihuman thymocyte immunoglobulin (Thymoglobuline,(®) Sanofi) as induction therapy and immediate-release tacrolimus [Adoport(®) (Sandoz); Capexion(®) (Mylan); Modigraf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Perixis(®) (Accord Healthcare); Prograf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Tacni(®) (Teva); Vivadex(®) (Dexcel Pharma)], prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf,(®) Astellas Pharma); belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix,(®) Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) [Arzip(®) (Zentiva), CellCept(®) (Roche Products), Myfenax(®) (Teva), generic MMF is manufactured by Accord Healthcare, Actavis, Arrow Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Mylan, Sandoz and Wockhardt], mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus (Rapamune,(®) Pfizer) and everolimus (Certican,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) as maintenance therapy in children and adolescents undergoing renal transplantation.

DATA SOURCES

Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted to 7 January 2015 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science [via Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)], Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted to 15 January 2015 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Databases (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and EconLit (via EBSCOhost).

REVIEW METHODS

Titles and abstracts were screened according to predefined inclusion criteria, as were full texts of identified studies. Included studies were extracted and quality appraised. Data were meta-analysed when appropriate. A new discrete time state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed; graft function, and incidences of acute rejection and new-onset diabetes mellitus were used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death.

RESULTS

Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and four non-RCTs were included. The RCTs only evaluated BAS and tacrolimus (TAC). No statistically significant differences in key outcomes were found between BAS and placebo/no induction. Statistically significantly higher graft function (p < 0.01) and less biopsy-proven acute rejection (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.57) was found between TAC and ciclosporin (CSA). Only one cost-effectiveness study was identified, which informed NICE guidance TA99. BAS [with TAC and azathioprine (AZA)] was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) versus no induction (BAS was dominant). BAS (with CSA and MMF) was not predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus no induction (BAS was dominated). TAC (with AZA) was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus CSA (TAC was dominant). A model based on adult evidence suggests that at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY, BAS and TAC are cost-effective in all considered combinations; MMF was also cost-effective with CSA but not TAC.

LIMITATIONS

The RCT evidence is very limited; analyses comparing all interventions need to rely on adult evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

TAC is likely to be cost-effective (vs. CSA, in combination with AZA) at £20,000-30,000 per QALY. Analysis based on one RCT found BAS to be dominant, but analysis based on another RCT found BAS to be dominated. BAS plus TAC and AZA was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY when all regimens were compared using extrapolated adult evidence. High-quality primary effectiveness research is needed. The UK Renal Registry could form the basis for a prospective primary study.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013544.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research HTA programme.

Optimising the Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer in the Era of Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis Based on the Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS)

BACKGROUND

The current recommendation of using transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUSB) to diagnose prostate cancer misses clinically significant (CS) cancers. More sensitive biopsies (eg, template prostate mapping biopsy [TPMB]) are too resource intensive for routine use, and there is little evidence on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI).

OBJECTIVE

To identify the most effective and cost-effective way of using these tests to detect CS prostate cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cost-effectiveness modelling of health outcomes and costs of men referred to secondary care with a suspicion of prostate cancer prior to any biopsy in the UK National Health Service using information from the diagnostic Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS).

INTERVENTION

Combinations of MPMRI, TRUSB, and TPMB, using different definitions and diagnostic cut-offs for CS cancer.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Strategies that detect the most CS cancers given testing costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) given long-term costs.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

The use of MPMRI first and then up to two MRI-targeted TRUSBs detects more CS cancers per pound spent than a strategy using TRUSB first (sensitivity = 0.95 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.92-0.98] vs 0.91 [95% CI 0.86-0.94]) and is cost effective (ICER = £7,076 [€8350/QALY gained]). The limitations stem from the evidence base in the accuracy of MRI-targeted biopsy and the long-term outcomes of men with CS prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

An MPMRI-first strategy is effective and cost effective for the diagnosis of CS prostate cancer. These findings are sensitive to the test costs, sensitivity of MRI-targeted TRUSB, and long-term outcomes of men with cancer, which warrant more empirical research. This analysis can inform the development of clinical guidelines.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We found that, under certain assumptions, the use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging first and then up to two transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy is better than the current clinical standard and is good value for money.

Multiple-frequency bioimpedance devices for fluid management in people with chronic kidney disease receiving dialysis: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a long-term condition requiring treatment such as conservative management, kidney transplantation or dialysis. To optimise the volume of fluid removed during dialysis (to avoid underhydration or overhydration), people are assigned a 'target weight', which is commonly assessed using clinical methods, such as weight gain between dialysis sessions, pre- and post-dialysis blood pressure and patient-reported symptoms. However, these methods are not precise, and measurement devices based on bioimpedance technology are increasingly used in dialysis centres. Current evidence on the role of bioimpedance devices for fluid management in people with CKD receiving dialysis is limited.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of multiple-frequency bioimpedance devices versus standard clinical assessment for fluid management in people with CKD receiving dialysis.

DATA SOURCES

We searched major electronic databases [e.g. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Science Citation Index and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)] conference abstracts and ongoing studies. There were no date restrictions. Searches were undertaken between June and October 2016.

REVIEW METHODS

Evidence was considered from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing fluid management by multiple-frequency bioimpedance devices and standard clinical assessment in people receiving dialysis, and non-randomised studies evaluating the use of the devices for fluid management in people receiving dialysis. One reviewer extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. A second reviewer cross-checked the extracted data. Standard meta-analyses techniques were used to combine results from included studies. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions.

RESULTS

Five RCTs (with 904 adult participants) and eight non-randomised studies (with 4915 adult participants) assessing the use of the Body Composition Monitor [(BCM) Fresenius Medical Care, Bad Homburg vor der Höhe, Germany] were included. Both absolute overhydration and relative overhydration were significantly lower in patients evaluated using BCM measurements than for those evaluated using standard clinical methods [weighted mean difference -0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.72 to -0.15, p = 0.003, I2 = 49%; and weighted mean difference -1.84, 95% CI -3.65 to -0.03; p = 0.05, I2 = 52%, respectively]. Pooled effects of bioimpedance monitoring on systolic blood pressure (SBP) (mean difference -2.46 mmHg, 95% CI -5.07 to 0.15 mmHg; p = 0.06, I2 = 0%), arterial stiffness (mean difference -1.18, 95% CI -3.14 to 0.78; p = 0.24, I2 = 92%) and mortality (hazard ratio = 0.689, 95% CI 0.23 to 2.08; p = 0.51) were not statistically significant. The economic evaluation showed that, when dialysis costs were included in the model, the probability of bioimpedance monitoring being cost-effective ranged from 13% to 26% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. With dialysis costs excluded, the corresponding probabilities of cost-effectiveness ranged from 61% to 67%.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of evidence on clinically relevant outcomes, children receiving dialysis, and any multifrequency bioimpedance devices, other than the BCM.

CONCLUSIONS

BCM used in addition to clinical assessment may lower overhydration and potentially improve intermediate outcomes, such as SBP, but effects on mortality have not been demonstrated. If dialysis costs are not considered, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio falls below £20,000, with modest effects on mortality and/or hospitalisation rates. The current findings are not generalisable to paediatric populations nor across other multifrequency bioimpedance devices.

FUTURE WORK

Services that routinely use the BCM should report clinically relevant intermediate and long-term outcomes before and after introduction of the device to extend the current evidence base.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041785.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Lowering Permissible Noise Levels Around U.S. Airports

Aircraft noise increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases and mental illness. The allowable limit for sound in the vicinity of an airport is 65 decibels (dB) averaged over a 24-h ‘day and night’ period (DNL) in the United States. We evaluate the trade-off between the cost and the health benefits of changing the regulatory DNL level from 65 dB to 55 dB using a Markov model. The study used LaGuardia Airport (LGA) as a case study. In compliance with 55 dB allowable limit of aircraft noise, sound insulation would be required for residential homes within the 55 dB to 65 dB DNL. A Markov model was built to assess the cost-effectiveness of installing sound insulation. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation were conducted to test uncertainty of the model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of installing sound insulation for residents exposed to airplane noise from LGA was $11,163/QALY gained (95% credible interval: cost-saving and life-saving to $93,054/QALY gained). Changing the regulatory standard for noise exposure around airports from 65 dB to 55 dB comes at a very good value.

Estimating Health State Utility Values for Comorbidities

A comorbidity is defined as the presence of at least one additional health condition co-occurring with a primary health condition. Decision analytic models in healthcare depict the typical clinical pathway of patients in general clinical practice and frequently include health states defined to represent comorbidities such as sequelae or adverse events. Health state utility values (HSUVs) are often not available for these and analysts generally estimate them. This article provides a summary of the methodological literature on estimating methods frequently used together with worked examples. The three main methods used (minimum, multiplicative and additive) can produce a wide range in the values estimated. In general, the minimum method overestimates observed HSUVs and the magnitude of error tends to increase as the observed values decrease. Conversely, the additive and multiplicative methods generally underestimate observed values and the magnitude of the errors is generally greater for the additive method. HSUVs estimated using the multiplicative method tend to decrease for lower HSUVs and the largest errors are in observed HSUVs >0.6. Differences in estimated values can produce substantial differences in the resulting incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Based on the current evidence, the multiplicative method is advocated but additional research is required to determine appropriate methods when estimating values for additional comorbidities.

The Use of Health State Utility Values in Decision Models

Methodological issues of how to use health state utility values (HSUVs) in decision models arise frequently, including the most appropriate evidence to use as the baseline (e.g. the baseline HSUVs associated with avoiding a particular health condition or event), how to capture changes due to adverse events and how to appropriately capture uncertainty in progressive conditions where the expected change in quality of life is likely to be monotonically decreasing over time. As preference-based measures provide different values when collected from the same patient, it is important to ensure that all HSUVs used within a single model are obtained from the same instrument where ever possible. When people enter the model without the condition of interest (e.g. primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, screening or vaccination programmes), appropriate age- and gender-adjusted HSUVs from people without the particular condition should be used as the baseline. General population norms may be used as a proxy if the exact condition-specific evidence is not available. Individual discrete health states should be used for serious adverse reactions to treatment and the corresponding HSUVs sourced as normal. Care should be taken to avoid double counting when capturing the effects for both less severe adverse reactions (e.g. itchy skin rash or dry cough) and more severe adverse events (e.g. fatigue in oncology). Transparency in reporting standards for both the justification of the evidence used and any 'adjustments' is important to increase readers' confidence that the evidence used is the most appropriate available.

Cost-effectiveness of post-landing latent tuberculosis infection control strategies in new migrants to Canada

BACKGROUND

The majority of tuberculosis in migrants to Canada occurs due to reactivation of latent TB infection. Risk of tuberculosis in those with latent tuberculosis infection can be significantly reduced with treatment. Presently, only 2.4% of new migrants are flagged for post-landing surveillance, which may include latent tuberculosis infection screening; no other migrants receive routine latent tuberculosis infection screening. To aid in reducing the tuberculosis burden in new migrants to Canada, we determined the cost-effectiveness of using different latent tuberculosis infection interventions in migrants under post-arrival surveillance and in all new migrants.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model was developed that focused on a Canadian permanent resident cohort after arrival in Canada, utilizing a ten-year time horizon, healthcare system perspective, and 1.5% discount rate. Latent tuberculosis infection interventions were evaluated in the population under surveillance (N = 6100) and the total cohort (N = 260,600). In all evaluations, six different screening and treatment combinations were compared to the base case of tuberculin skin test screening followed by isoniazid treatment only in the population under surveillance. Quality adjusted life years, incident tuberculosis cases, and costs were recorded for each intervention and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated in relation to the base case.

RESULTS

In the population under surveillance (N = 6100), using an interferon-gamma release assay followed by rifampin was dominant compared to the base case, preventing 4.90 cases of tuberculosis, a 4.9% reduction, adding 4.0 quality adjusted life years, and saving $353,013 over the ensuing ten-years. Latent tuberculosis infection screening in the total population (N = 260,600) was not cost-effective when compared to the base case, however could potentially prevent 21.8% of incident tuberculosis cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening new migrants under surveillance with an interferon-gamma release assay and treating with rifampin is cost saving, but will not significantly impact TB incidence. Universal latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment is cost-prohibitive. Research into using risk factors to target screening post-landing may provide alternate solutions.

Estimating Health-State Utility Values in Kidney Transplant Recipients and Waiting-List Patients Using the EQ-5D-5L

OBJECTIVES

To report health-state utility values measured using the five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) in a large sample of patients with end-stage renal disease and to explore how these values vary in relation to patient characteristics and treatment factors.

METHODS

As part of the prospective observational study entitled "Access to Transplantation and Transplant Outcome Measures," we captured information on patient characteristics and treatment factors in a cohort of incident kidney transplant recipients and a cohort of prevalent patients on the transplant waiting list in the United Kingdom. We assessed patients' health status using the EQ-5D-5L and conducted multivariable regression analyses of index scores.

RESULTS

EQ-5D-5L responses were available for 512 transplant recipients and 1704 waiting-list patients. Mean index scores were higher in transplant recipients at 6 months after transplant surgery (0.83) compared with patients on the waiting list (0.77). In combined regression analyses, a primary renal diagnosis of diabetes was associated with the largest decrement in utility scores. When separate regression models were fitted to each cohort, female gender and Asian ethnicity were associated with lower utility scores among waiting-list patients but not among transplant recipients. Among waiting-list patients, longer time spent on dialysis was also associated with poorer utility scores. When comorbidities were included, the presence of mental illness resulted in a utility decrement of 0.12 in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides new insights into variations in health-state utility values from a single source that can be used to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations in patients with end-stage renal disease.

Cost-effectiveness of Memory Assessment Services for the diagnosis and early support of patients with dementia in England

Background Policy makers in England advocate referral of patients with suspected dementia to Memory Assessment Services (MAS), but it is unclear how any improvement in patients' health-related quality of life (HRQL) compares with the associated costs. Aims To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of MAS for the diagnosis and follow-up care of patients with suspected dementia. Method We analysed observational data from 1318 patients referred to 69 MAS, and their lay carers (n = 944), who completed resource use and HRQL questionnaires at baseline, three and six months. We reported mean differences in HRQL (disease-specific DEMQOL and generic EQ-5D-3L), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs between baseline and six months after referral to MAS. We also assessed the cost-effectiveness of MAS across different patient subgroups and clinic characteristics. Results Referral to MAS was associated with gains in DEMQOL (mean gain: 3.48, 95% confidence interval: 2.84 to 4.12), EQ-5D-3L (0.023, 0.008 to 0.038) and QALYs (0.006, 0.002 to 0.01). Mean total cost over six months, assuming a societal perspective, was £1899 (£1277 to £2539). This yielded a negative incremental net monetary benefit of -£1724 (-£2388 to -£1085), assuming NICE's recommended willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000 per QALY). These base case results were relatively robust to alternative assumptions about costs and HRQL. There was some evidence that patients aged 80 or older benefitted more from referral to MAS (p < 0.01 from adjusted mean differences in net benefits) compared to younger patients. MAS with over 75 new patients a month or cost per patient less than £2500 over six months were relatively more cost-effective (p < 0.01) than MAS with fewer new monthly patients or higher cost per patient. Conclusions Diagnosis, treatment and follow-up care provided by MAS to patients with suspected dementia appears to be effective, but not cost-effective, in the six months after diagnosis. Longer term evidence is required before drawing conclusions about the cost-effectiveness of MAS.

Establishing benchmark EQ-5D-3L population health state utilities and identifying their correlates in Gansu Province, China

PURPOSES

Despite a flurry of cost utility analyses conducted in the Chinese population in recent years, a standard set of health state utilities (HSUs) for the Chinese population is lacking. The aims of this study were to (1) determine benchmark age- and sex-specific HSUs for a Chinese population, and (2) assess key correlates of HSUs in this population.

METHODS

Quality-of-life was evaluated using the validated EQ-5D-3L questionnaire. HSUs were calculated using data collected from Gansu Province (n = 9833). Overall differences in HSUs were analysed using linear regression and a two-tailed p value <0.05 was determined to be statistically significant. The minimal difference in weighted index was set at 0.074.

RESULTS

HSUs decreased with age in both males and females. Living in the non-capital areas, being separated/divorced/widowed or never married, being never educated, diagnosed with chronic disease, and no regular physical activity were associated with lower HSUs. HSUs for women were lower than for men in univariate regression analysis; however, no differences were found after adjusting for other covariates. In addition, the difference in HSU reached the level of minimal difference in weighted index for participants with chronic disease. HSUs for those who were diagnosed with chronic disease were 0.098 (0.092-0.104) lower than those without chronic disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports HSUs for a Chinese population in Gansu and investigates the key correlates of HSUs in this population. In addition, the use of EQ-5D-3L in assessing population health is limited given the high ceiling effect and skewed HSUs.

The clinical effectiveness of different surveillance strategies to prevent colorectal cancer in people with intermediate-grade colorectal adenomas: a retrospective cohort analysis, and psychological and economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

The UK guideline recommends 3-yearly surveillance for patients with intermediate-risk (IR) adenomas. No study has examined whether or not this group has heterogeneity in surveillance needs.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of surveillance on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence; assess heterogeneity in risk; and identify the optimum frequency of surveillance, the psychological impact of surveillance, and the cost-effectiveness of alternative follow-up strategies.

DESIGN

Retrospective multicentre cohort study.

SETTING

Routine endoscopy and pathology data from 17 UK hospitals (n = 11,944), and a screening data set comprising three pooled cohorts (n = 2352), followed up using cancer registries.

SUBJECTS

Patients with IR adenoma(s) (three or four small adenomas or one or two large adenomas).

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

Advanced adenoma (AA) and CRC detected at follow-up visits, and CRC incidence after baseline and first follow-up.

METHODS

The effects of surveillance on long-term CRC incidence and of interval length on findings at follow-up were examined using proportional hazards and logistic regression, adjusting for patient, procedural and polyp characteristics. Lower-intermediate-risk (LIR) subgroups and higher-intermediate-risk (HIR) subgroups were defined, based on predictors of CRC risk. A model-based cost-utility analysis compared 13 surveillance strategies. Between-group analyses of variance were used to test for differences in bowel cancer worry between screening outcome groups (n = 35,700). A limitation of using routine hospital data is the potential for missed examinations and underestimation of the effect of interval and surveillance.

RESULTS

In the hospital data set, 168 CRCs occurred during 81,442 person-years (pys) of follow-up [206 per 100,000 pys, 95% confidence interval (CI) 177 to 240 pys]. One surveillance significantly lowered CRC incidence, both overall [hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.77] and in the HIR subgroup (n = 9265; HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.76). In the LIR subgroup (n = 2679) the benefit of surveillance was less clear (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.16 to 2.43). Additional surveillance lowered CRC risk in the HIR subgroup by a further 15% (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.62). The odds of detecting AA and CRC at first follow-up (FUV1) increased by 18% [odds ratio (OR) 1.18, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.24] and 32% (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.46) per year increase in interval, respectively, and the odds of advanced neoplasia at second follow-up increased by 22% (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.36), after adjustment. Detection rates of AA and CRC remained below 10% and 1%, respectively, with intervals to 3 years. In the screening data set, 32 CRCs occurred during 25,745 pys of follow-up (124 per 100,000 pys, 95% CI 88 to 176 pys). One follow-up conferred a significant 73% reduction in CRC incidence (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.71). Owing to the small number of end points in this data set, no other outcome was significant. Although post-screening bowel cancer worry was higher in people who were offered surveillance, worry was due to polyp detection rather than surveillance. The economic evaluation, using data from the hospital data set, suggested that 3-yearly colonoscopic surveillance without an age cut-off would produce the greatest health gain.

CONCLUSIONS

A single surveillance benefited all IR patients by lowering their CRC risk. We identified a higher-risk subgroup that benefited from further surveillance, and a lower-risk subgroup that may require only one follow-up. A surveillance interval of 3 years seems suitable for most IR patients. These findings should be validated in other studies to confirm whether or not one surveillance visit provides adequate protection for the lower-risk subgroup of intermediate-risk patients.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15213649.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early nutritional support via the parenteral versus the enteral route in critically ill patients (CALORIES)

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is a common problem in critically ill patients in UK NHS critical care units. Early nutritional support is therefore recommended to address deficiencies in nutritional state and related disorders in metabolism. However, evidence is conflicting regarding the optimum route (parenteral or enteral) of delivery.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effect of early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route on mortality at 30 days and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. Secondary objectives were to compare the route of early nutritional support on duration of organ support; infectious and non-infectious complications; critical care unit and acute hospital length of stay; all-cause mortality at critical care unit and acute hospital discharge, at 90 days and 1 year; survival to 90 days and 1 year; nutritional and health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness.

DESIGN

A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation.

SETTING

Adult general critical care units in 33 NHS hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

2400 eligible patients.

INTERVENTIONS

Five days of early nutritional support delivered via the parenteral (n = 1200) and enteral (n = 1200) route.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality at 30 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (INB) (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year.

RESULTS

By 30 days, 393 of 1188 (33.1%) patients assigned to receive early nutritional support via the parenteral route and 409 of 1195 (34.2%) assigned to the enteral route had died [p = 0.57; absolute risk reduction 1.15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.65 to 4.94; relative risk 0.97 (0.86 to 1.08)]. At 1 year, INB for the parenteral route compared with the enteral route was negative at -£1320 (95% CI -£3709 to £1069). The probability that early nutritional support via the parenteral route is more cost-effective - given the data - is < 20%. The proportion of patients in the parenteral group who experienced episodes of hypoglycaemia (p = 0.006) and of vomiting (p < 0.001) was significantly lower than in the enteral group. There were no significant differences in the 15 other secondary outcomes and no significant interactions with pre-specified subgroups.

LIMITATIONS

Blinding of nutritional support was deemed to be impractical and, although the primary outcome was objective, some secondary outcomes, although defined and objectively assessed, may have been more vulnerable to observer bias.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days for early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route among adults admitted to critical care units in England. On average, costs were higher for the parenteral route, which, combined with similar survival and quality of life, resulted in negative INBs at 1 year.

FUTURE WORK

Nutritional support is a complex combination of timing, dose, duration, delivery and type, all of which may affect outcomes and costs. Conflicting evidence remains regarding optimum provision to critically ill patients. There is a need to utilise rigorous consensus methods to establish future priorities for basic and clinical research in this area.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17386141.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

An evidence-based approach to the use of telehealth in long-term health conditions: development of an intervention and evaluation through pragmatic randomised controlled trials in patients with depression or raised cardiovascular risk

Background

Health services internationally are exploring the potential of telehealth to support the management of the growing number of people with long-term conditions (LTCs).

Aim

To develop, implement and evaluate new care programmes for patients with LTCs, focusing on two common LTCs as exemplars: depression or high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

Methods

Development

We synthesised quantitative and qualitative evidence on the effectiveness of telehealth for LTCs, conducted a qualitative study based on interviews with patients and staff and undertook a postal survey to explore which patients are interested in different forms of telehealth. Based on these studies we developed a conceptual model [TElehealth in CHronic disease (TECH) model] as a framework for the development and evaluation of the Healthlines Service for patients with LTCs.

Implementation

The Healthlines Service consisted of regular telephone calls to participants from health information advisors, supporting them to make behaviour change and to use tailored online resources. Advisors sought to optimise participants’ medication and to improve adherence.

Evaluation

The Healthlines Service was evaluated with linked pragmatic randomised controlled trials comparing the Healthlines Service plus usual care with usual care alone, with nested process and economic evaluations. Participants were adults with depression or raised CVD risk recruited from 43 general practices in three areas of England. The primary outcome was response to treatment and the secondary outcomes included anxiety (depression trial), individual risk factors (CVD risk trial), self-management skills, medication adherence, perceptions of support, access to health care and satisfaction with treatment.

Trial results

Depression trial

In total, 609 participants were randomised and the retention rate was 86%. Response to treatment [Patient Health Questionnaire 9-items (PHQ-9) reduction of ≥ 5 points and score of < 10 after 4 months] was higher in the intervention group (27%, 68/255) than in the control group (19%, 50/270) [odds ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 2.5;p = 0.02]. Anxiety also improved. Intervention participants reported better access to health support, greater satisfaction with treatment and small improvements in self-management, but not improved medication adherence.

CVD risk trial

In total, 641 participants were randomised and the retention rate was 91%. Response to treatment (maintenance of/reduction in QRISK®2 score after 12 months) was higher in the intervention group (50%, 148/295) than in the control group (43%, 124/291), which does not exclude a null effect (odds ratio 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9;p = 0.08). The intervention was associated with small improvements in blood pressure and weight, but not smoking or cholesterol. Intervention participants were more likely to adhere to medication, reported better access to health support and greater satisfaction with treatment, but few improvements in self-management.

The Healthlines Service was likely to be cost-effective for CVD risk, particularly if the benefits are sustained, but not for depression. The intervention was implemented largely as planned, although initial delays and later disruption to delivery because of the closure of NHS Direct may have adversely affected participant engagement.

Conclusion

The Healthlines Service, designed using an evidence-based conceptual model, provided modest health benefits and participants valued the better access to care and extra support provided. This service was cost-effective for CVD risk but not depression. These findings of small benefits at extra cost are consistent with previous pragmatic research on the implementation of comprehensive telehealth programmes for LTCs.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14172341 (depression trial) and ISRCTN27508731 (CVD risk trial).

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Should all anticoagulated patients with head injury receive a CT scan? Decision-analysis modelling of an observational cohort

OBJECTIVES

It is not currently clear whether all anticoagulated patients with a head injury should receive CT scanning or only those with evidence of traumatic brain injury (eg, loss of consciousness or amnesia). We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of CT for all compared with selective CT use for anticoagulated patients with a head injury.

DESIGN

Decision-analysis modelling of data from a multicentre observational study.

SETTING

33 emergency departments in England and Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

3566 adults (aged ≥16 years) who had suffered blunt head injury, were taking warfarin and underwent selective CT scanning.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Estimated expected benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were the entire cohort to receive a CT scan; estimated increased costs of CT and also the potential cost implications associated with patient survival and improved health. These values were used to estimate the cost per QALY of implementing a strategy of CT for all patients compared with observed practice based on guidelines recommending selective CT use.

RESULTS

Of the 1420 of 3534 patients (40%) who did not receive a CT scan, 7 (0.5%) suffered a potentially avoidable head injury-related adverse outcome. If CT scanning had been performed in all patients, appropriate treatment could have gained 3.41 additional QALYs but would have incurred £193 149 additional treatment costs and £130 683 additional CT costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £94 895/QALY gained for unselective compared with selective CT use is markedly above the threshold of £20-30 000/QALY used by the UK National Institute for Care Excellence to determine cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

CT scanning for all anticoagulated patients with head injury is not cost-effective compared with selective use of CT scanning based on guidelines recommending scanning only for those with evidence of traumatic brain injury.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT 02461498.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (epoetin and darbepoetin) for treating cancer treatment-induced anaemia (including review of technology appraisal no. 142): a systematic review and economic model

BACKGROUND

Anaemia is a common side effect of cancer treatments and can lead to a reduction in quality of life. Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are licensed for use in conjunction with red blood cell transfusions to improve cancer treatment-induced anaemia (CIA).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ESAs in anaemia associated with cancer treatment (specifically chemotherapy).

DATA SOURCES

The following databases were searched from 2004 to 2013: The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, British Nursing Index, Health Management Information Consortium, Current Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov. The US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency websites were also searched. Bibliographies of included papers were scrutinised for further potentially includable studies.

REVIEW METHODS

The clinical effectiveness review followed principles published by the NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), or systematic reviews of RCTs, of ESAs (epoetin or darbepoetin) for treating people with CIA were eligible for inclusion in the review. Comparators were best supportive care, placebo or other ESAs. Anaemia- and malignancy-related outcomes, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and adverse events (AEs) were evaluated. When appropriate, data were pooled using meta-analysis. An empirical health economic model was developed comparing ESA treatment with no ESA treatment. The model comprised two components: one evaluating short-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (while patients are anaemic) and one evaluating long-term QALYs. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Probabilistic and univariate deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Of 1457 titles and abstracts screened, 23 studies assessing ESAs within their licensed indication (based on start dose administered) were included in the review. None of the RCTs were completely aligned with current European Union licenses. The results suggest a clinical benefit from ESAs for anaemia-related outcomes and an improvement in HRQoL scores. The impact of ESAs on AEs and survival remains highly uncertain, although point estimates are lower, confidence intervals are wide and not statistically significant. Base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for ESA treatment compared with no ESA treatment ranged from £ 19,429 to £ 35,018 per QALY gained, but sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrate considerable uncertainty in these ICERs, including the possibility of overall health disbenefit. All ICERs were sensitive to survival and cost.

LIMITATIONS

The relative effectiveness of ESAs was not addressed; all ESAs were assumed to have equivalent efficacy. No studies were completely aligned with their European labelling beyond the starting dose evaluated. There is questionable generalisability given that the included trials were published >20 years ago and there have been many changes to chemotherapy as well as to the quality of supportive treatment. Trial quality was moderate or poor and there was considerable unexplained heterogeneity for a number of outcomes, particularly survival, and evidence of publication bias. Adjustments were not made to account for multiple testing.

CONCLUSIONS

ESAs could be cost-effective when used closer to licence, but there is considerable uncertainty, mainly because of unknown impacts on overall survival.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005812.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cost-effectiveness modelling of telehealth for patients with raised cardiovascular disease risk: evidence from a cohort simulation conducted alongside the Healthlines randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness (measured as the ratio of incremental NHS cost to incremental quality-adjusted life years) of a telehealth intervention for patients with raised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

DESIGN

A cohort simulation model developed as part of the economic evaluation conducted alongside the Healthlines randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Patients recruited through primary care, and intervention delivered via telehealth service.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants with a 10-year CVD risk ≥20%, as measured by the QRISK2 algorithm, and with at least 1 modifiable risk factor, individually randomised from 42 general practices in England.

INTERVENTION

A telehealth service delivered over a 12-month period. The intervention involved a series of responsive, theory-led encounters between patients and trained health information advisors who provided access to information resources and supported medication adherence and coordination of care.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost-effectiveness measured by net monetary benefit over the simulated lifetime of trial participants from a UK National Health Service perspective.

RESULTS

The probability that the intervention was cost-effective depended on the duration of the effect of the intervention. The intervention was cost-effective with high probability if effects persisted over the lifetime of intervention recipients. The probability of cost-effectiveness was lower for shorter durations of effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention was likely to be cost-effective under a lifetime perspective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN27508731; Results.

The Clinical Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in Finland

BACKGROUND

Trivalent influenza vaccines encompass one influenza B lineage; however, predictions have been unreliable on which of two antigenically distinct circulating lineages will dominate. Quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines contain strains from both lineages. This analysis assesses the cost effectiveness of switching from trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (TIV) in Finland to quadrivalent vaccination, using inactivated (QIV) or live-attenuated (Q-LAIV) vaccines.

METHODS

A transmission model simulated the dynamics of influenza infection while accounting for indirect (herd) protection. Prior distributions for key transmission parameters were repeatedly sampled and simulations that fitted the available information on influenza in Finland were recorded. The resulting posterior parameter distributions were used in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which economic parameters were sampled, simultaneously encompassing uncertainty in the transmission and economic parameters. The cost effectiveness of a range of trivalent and quadrivalent vaccine policies over a 20-year time horizon was assessed from both a societal and payer perspective in 2014 Euros.

RESULTS

The simulated temporal incidence pattern of symptomatic infections corresponded well with case surveillance data. A switch from the current TIV to Q-LAIV in children (2 to <18 years) and to QIV in other ages was estimated to annually avert approximately 76,100 symptomatic infections (95 % range 36,700-146,700), 11,500 primary care consultations (6100-20,000), 540 hospitalisations (240-1180), and 72 deaths (32-160), and was cost-saving relative to TIV (€374 million averted [€161-€752], in 2014 Euros, discounted at 3 %). This scenario had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective scenario considered.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates that quadrivalent vaccination is expected to be highly cost effective, reducing the burden of influenza-related disease.

A model for measuring the health burden of classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia in adults

AIM

Patients with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) have poor health outcomes. In the absence of a comprehensive observational study, this manuscript provides a model to estimate the lifetime disease burden of adults with classic CAH.

METHODS

The model, built in Excel, comprises subdomains addressing the health consequences of CAH and synthesises evidence from clinical and epidemiological studies on health outcomes.

RESULTS

The model estimates that adults with classic CAH will implement 'sick day rules' (doubling or tripling glucocorticoid and/or use of parenteral therapy) 171 times over their lifetime and attend hospital for adrenal crisis on 11 occasions. In a population of 1000, over 200 will die of a condition complicated by adrenal crisis resulting, on average, in a loss of 7 years of life. Patients with CAH may also suffer from excess CVD events. Treatment with glucocorticoids almost doubles the risk of bone fractures in patients with CAH compared to the general population, leading on average to an additional 0·8 fractures per patient with CAH over their lifetime.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden model highlights gaps in evidence, particularly regarding intensity of care and adrenal crisis, and the relationship between control of CAH and risks of CVD, osteoporosis, diabetes and infertility. The model can be used for research on the impact of new clinical pathways and therapeutic interventions in terms of clinical events and cost.

Protocolised Management In Sepsis (ProMISe): a multicentre randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early, goal-directed, protocolised resuscitation for emerging septic shock

BACKGROUND

Early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is recommended in international guidance for the resuscitation of patients presenting with early septic shock. However, adoption has been limited and uncertainty remains over its clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to estimate the effect of EGDT compared with usual resuscitation on mortality at 90 days following randomisation and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. The secondary objectives were to compare EGDT with usual resuscitation for requirement for, and duration of, critical care unit organ support; length of stay in the emergency department (ED), critical care unit and acute hospital; health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and at 1 year; all-cause mortality at 28 days, at acute hospital discharge and at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness.

DESIGN

A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation.

SETTING

Fifty-six NHS hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1260 patients who presented at EDs with septic shock.

INTERVENTIONS

EGDT (n = 630) or usual resuscitation (n = 630). Patients were randomly allocated 1 : 1.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality at 90 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year.

RESULTS

Following withdrawals, data on 1243 (EGDT, n = 623; usual resuscitation, n = 620) patients were included in the analysis. By 90 days, 184 (29.5%) in the EGDT and 181 (29.2%) patients in the usual-resuscitation group had died [p = 0.90; absolute risk reduction -0.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -5.4 to 4.7; relative risk 1.01, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.20]. Treatment intensity was greater for the EGDT group, indicated by the increased use of intravenous fluids, vasoactive drugs and red blood cell transfusions. Increased treatment intensity was reflected by significantly higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and more advanced cardiovascular support days in critical care for the EGDT group. At 1 year, the incremental net benefit for EGDT versus usual resuscitation was negative at -£725 (95% CI -£3000 to £1550). The probability that EGDT was more cost-effective than usual resuscitation was below 30%. There were no significant differences in any other secondary outcomes, including health-related quality of life, or adverse events.

LIMITATIONS

Recruitment was lower at weekends and out of hours. The intervention could not be blinded.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 90 days for EGDT compared with usual resuscitation among adults identified with early septic shock presenting to EDs in England. On average, costs were higher in the EGDT group than in the usual-resuscitation group while quality-adjusted life-years were similar in both groups; the probability that it is cost-effective is < 30%.

FUTURE WORK

The ProMISe (Protocolised Management In Sepsis) trial completes the planned trio of evaluations of EGDT across the USA, Australasia and England; all have indicated that EGDT is not superior to usual resuscitation. Recognising that each of the three individual, large trials has limited power for evaluating potentially important subgroups, the harmonised approach adopted provides the opportunity to conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis, enhancing both knowledge and generalisability.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN36307479.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 97. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Measurement of exhaled nitric oxide concentration in asthma: a systematic review and economic evaluation of NIOX MINO, NIOX VERO and NObreath

BACKGROUND

High fractions of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) in the breath of patients with symptoms of asthma are correlated with high levels of eosinophils and indicate that a patient is likely to respond to inhaled corticosteroids. This may have a role in the diagnosis and management of asthma.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the hand-held electrochemical devices NIOX MINO(®) (Aerocrine, Solna, Sweden), NIOX VERO(®) (Aerocrine) and NObreath(®) (Bedfont Scientific, Maidstone, UK) for the diagnosis and management of asthma.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic searches were carried out between March 2013 and April 2013 from database inception. Databases searched included MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Science Citation Index Expanded and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science. Trial registers such as ClinicalTrials.gov and the metaRegister of Controlled Trials were also searched in March 2013. All searches were updated in September 2013.

REVIEW METHODS

A rapid review was conducted to assess the equivalence of hand-held and chemiluminescent FeNO monitors. Systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy and management efficacy were conducted. A systematic review of economic analyses was also conducted and two de novo health economic models were developed. All three reviews were undertaken according to robust high-quality methodology.

RESULTS

The rapid review (27 studies) found varying levels of agreement between monitors (Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement up to ±10 parts per billion), with better agreement at lower FeNO values. Correlation was good (generally r > 0.9). The diagnostic accuracy review identified 22 studies in adults (all ages) and four in children. No studies used NObreath or NIOX VERO and seven used NIOX MINO. Estimates of diagnostic accuracy varied widely. FeNO used in combination with another test altered diagnostic accuracy only slightly. High levels of heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. Limited observations included that FeNO may be more reliable and useful as a rule-in than as a rule-out test; lower cut-off values in children and in smokers may be appropriate; and FeNO may be less reliable in the elderly. The management review identified five randomised controlled trials in adults, one in pregnant asthmatics and seven in children. Despite clinical heterogeneity, exacerbation rates were lower in all studies but not generally statistically significantly so. Effects on inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use were inconsistent, possibly because of differences in management protocols, differential effectiveness in adults and children and differences in population severity. One UK diagnostic model and one management model were identified. Aerocrine also submitted diagnostic and management models. All had significant limitations including short time horizons and the selective use of efficacy evidence. The de novo diagnostic model suggested that the expected difference in quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gains between diagnostic options is likely to be very small. Airway hyper-responsiveness by methacholine challenge test is expected to produce the greatest QALY gain but with an expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared with FeNO (NObreath) in combination with bronchodilator reversibility of £1.125M per QALY gained. All remaining options are expected to be dominated. The de novo management model indicates that the ICER of guidelines plus FeNO monitoring using NObreath compared with guidelines alone in children is expected to be approximately £45,200 per QALY gained. Within the adult subgroup, FeNO monitoring using NObreath compared with guidelines alone is expected to have an ICER of approximately £2100 per QALY gained. The results are particularly sensitive to assumptions regarding changes in ICS use over time, the number of nurse visits for FeNO monitoring and duration of effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Limitations of the evidence base impose considerable uncertainty on all analyses. Equivalence of devices was assumed but not assured. Evidence for diagnosis is difficult to interpret in the context of inserting FeNO monitoring into a diagnostic pathway. Evidence for management is also inconclusive, but largely consistent with FeNO monitoring resulting in fewer exacerbations, with a small or zero reduction in ICS use in adults and a possible increased ICS use in children or patients with more severe asthma. It is unclear which specific management protocol is likely to be most effective. The economic analysis indicates that FeNO monitoring could have value in diagnostic and management settings. The diagnostic model indicates that FeNO monitoring plus bronchodilator reversibility dominates many other diagnostic tests. FeNO-guided management has the potential to be cost-effective, although this is largely dependent on the duration of effect. The conclusions drawn from both models require strong technical value judgements with respect to several aspects of the decision problem in which little or no empirical evidence exists. There are many potential directions for further work, including investigations into which management protocol is best and long-term follow-up in both diagnosis and management studies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013004149.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The predicted lifetime costs and health consequences of calcium and vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention-the impact of cardiovascular effects

Some studies indicate that calcium supplementation increases cardiovascular risk. We assessed whether such effects could counterbalance the fracture benefits from supplementation. Accounting for cardiovascular outcomes, calcium may cause net harm and would not be cost-effective. Clinicians may do well considering cardiovascular effects when prescribing calcium supplementation.

INTRODUCTION

Accounting for possible cardiovascular effect of calcium and vitamin D supplementation (CaD), the aims of this study were to assess whether CaD on balance would improve population health and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such supplementation.

METHODS

We created a probabilistic Markov simulation model that was analysed at the individual patient level. We analysed 65-year-old Norwegian women with a 2.3 % 10-year risk of hip fracture and a 9.3 % risk of any major fracture according to the WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®). Consistent with a recent Cochrane review, we assumed that CaD reduces the risk of hip, vertebral, and wrist fractures by 16, 11, and 5 %, respectively. We included the increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke under a no-, medium-, and high-risk scenario.

RESULTS

Assuming no cardiovascular effects, CaD supplementation produces improved health outcomes resulting in an incremental gain of 0.0223 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and increases costs by €322 compared with no treatment (cost-effectiveness ratio €14,453 per QALY gained). Assuming a Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold of €60,000 per QALY, CaD is likely to be considered a cost-effective treatment alternative. In a scenario with a medium or high increased risk of cardiovascular events, CaD produces net health losses, respectively, -0.0572 and -0.0784 QALY at additional costs of €481 and €1033.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the magnitude of potential cardiovascular side effects is crucial for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CaD supplementation in elderly women.

Rivaroxaban for Preventing Atherothrombotic Events in People with Acute Coronary Syndrome and Elevated Cardiac Biomarkers: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures rivaroxaban (Xarelto, Bayer) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of rivaroxaban for the prevention of adverse outcomes in patients after the acute management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, based upon the company's submission to NICE. The evidence was derived mainly from a randomised, double-blind, phase III, placebo-controlled trial of rivaroxaban (either 2.5 or 5 mg twice daily) in patients with recent ACS [unstable angina, non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)]. In addition, all patients received antiplatelet therapy [aspirin alone or aspirin and a thienopyridine either as clopidogrel (approximately 99 %) or ticlopidine (approximately 1 %) according to national or local guidelines]. The higher dose of rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily) did not form part of the marketing authorisation. A post hoc subgroup analysis of the licensed patients who had ACS with elevated cardiac biomarkers (that is, patients with STEMI and NSTEMI) without prior stroke or transient ischaemic stroke showed that compared with standard care, the addition of rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) to existing antiplatelet therapy reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, but increased the risk of major bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage. However, there were a number of limitations in the evidence base that warrant caution in its interpretation. In particular, the evidence may be confounded because of the post hoc subgroup analysis, modified intention-to-treat analyses, high dropout rates and missing vital status data. Results from the company's economic evaluation showed that the deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for rivaroxaban in combination with aspirin plus clopidogrel or with aspirin alone compared with aspirin plus clopidogrel or aspirin alone was £6203 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In contrast, the ERG's preferred base case estimate was £5622 per QALY gained. The ICER did not rise above £10,000 per QALY gained in any of the sensitivity analyses undertaken by the ERG, although the inflexibility of the company's economic model precluded the ERG from formally undertaking all desired exploratory analyses. As such, only a crude exploration of the impact of additional bleeding events could be undertaken. The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that the ICERs presented were all within the range that could be considered cost effective and that the results of the ERG's exploratory sensitivity and scenario analyses suggested that the ICER was unlikely to increase to the extent that it would become unacceptable. The Appraisal Committee therefore concluded that rivaroxaban in combination with aspirin plus clopidogrel, or with aspirin alone, was a cost-effective use of National Health Service (NHS) resources for preventing atherothrombotic events in people with ACS and elevated cardiac biomarkers.

Potential cost-effectiveness of supervised injection facilities in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Supervised injection facilities (legally sanctioned spaces for supervised consumption of illicitly obtained drugs) are controversial public health interventions. We determined the optimal number of facilities in two Canadian cities using health economic methods.

DESIGN

Dynamic compartmental model of HIV and hepatitis C transmission through sexual contact and sharing of drug use equipment.

SETTING

Toronto and Ottawa, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Simulated population of each city.

INTERVENTIONS

Zero to five supervised injection facilities.

MEASUREMENTS

Direct health-care costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 20 years, discounted at 5% per year; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

FINDINGS

In Toronto, one facility cost $4.1 million and resulted in a gain of 385 QALYs over 20 years, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $10,763 per QALY [95% credible interval (95CrI): cost-saving to $278,311]. Establishing one facility in Ottawa had an ICER of $6127 per QALY (95CrI: cost-saving to $179,272). At a $50,000 per QALY threshold, three facilities would be cost-effective in Toronto and two in Ottawa. The probability that establishing three, four, or five facilities in Toronto was cost-effective was 17, 21, and 41%, respectively. Establishing one, two, or three facilities in Ottawa was cost-effective with 13, 35, and 41% probability, respectively. Establishing no facility was unlikely to be the most cost-effective option (14% in Toronto and 10% in Ottawa). In both cities, results were robust if the reduction in needle-sharing among clients of the facilities was at least 50% and fixed operating costs were less than $2.0 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years threshold for cost-effectiveness, it is likely to be cost-effective to establish at least three legally sanctioned spaces for supervised injection of illicitly obtained drugs in Toronto, Canada and two in Ottawa, Canada.

Cost-effectiveness of an insertable cardiac monitor to detect atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke

Background and aims

Documentation of atrial fibrillation is required to initiate oral anticoagulation therapy for recurrent stroke prevention. Atrial fibrillation often goes undetected with traditional electrocardiogram monitoring techniques. We evaluated whether atrial fibrillation detection using continuous long-term monitoring with an insertable cardiac monitor is cost-effective for preventing recurrent stroke in patients with cryptogenic stroke, in comparison to the standard of care.

Methods

A lifetime Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of insertable cardiac monitors from a UK National Health Service perspective using data from the randomized CRYSTAL-AF trial and other published literature. We also conducted scenario analyses (CHADS2 score) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. All costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%.

Results

Monitoring cryptogenic stroke patients with an insertable cardiac monitor was associated with fewer recurrent strokes and increased quality-adjusted life years compared to the standard of care (7.37 vs 7.22). Stroke-related costs were reduced in insertable cardiac monitor patients, but overall costs remained higher than the standard of care (£19,631 vs £17,045). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £17,175 per quality-adjusted life years gained, compared to standard of care in the base-case scenario, which is below established quality-adjusted life years willingness-to-pay thresholds. When warfarin replaced non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants as the main anticoagulation therapy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £13,296 per quality-adjusted life years gained.

Conclusion

Insertable cardiac monitors are a cost-effective diagnostic tool for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with cryptogenic stroke. The cost-effectiveness results have relevance for the UK and across value-based healthcare systems that assess costs relative to outcomes.