School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong

Variability in school closure decisions in response to 2009 H1N1: a qualitative systems improvement analysis

Background

School closure was employed as a non-pharmaceutical intervention against pandemic 2009 H1N1, particularly during the first wave. More than 700 schools in the United States were closed. However, closure decisions reflected significant variation in rationales, decision triggers, and authority for closure. This variability presents the opportunity for improved efficiency and decision-making.

Methods

We identified media reports relating to school closure as a response to 2009 H1N1 by monitoring high-profile sources and searching Lexis-Nexis and Google news alerts, and reviewed reports for key themes. News stories were supplemented by observing conference calls and meetings with health department and school officials, and by discussions with decision-makers and community members.

Results

There was significant variation in the stated goal of closure decision, including limiting community spread of the virus, protecting particularly vulnerable students, and responding to staff shortages or student absenteeism. Because the goal of closure is relevant to its timing, nature, and duration, unclear rationales for closure can challenge its effectiveness. There was also significant variation in the decision-making authority to close schools in different jurisdictions, which, in some instances, was reflected in open disagreement between school and public health officials. Finally, decision-makers did not appear to expect the level of scientific uncertainty encountered early in the pandemic, and they often expressed significant frustration over changing CDC guidance.

Conclusions

The use of school closure as a public health response to epidemic disease can be improved by ensuring that officials clarify the goals of closure and tailor closure decisions to those goals. Additionally, authority to close schools should be clarified in advance, and decision-makers should expect to encounter uncertainty disease emergencies unfold and plan accordingly.

The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation

BACKGROUND

Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009.

METHODS

We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009.

RESULTS

Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications.

CONCLUSION

Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.

Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

Background

While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model.

Methods

We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment), assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009) in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009.

Results

Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals.

Conclusions

The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak.

Influenza pandemics

The recent H1N1 pandemic that emerged in 2009 has illustrated how swiftly a new influenza virus can circulate the globe. Here we explain the origins of the 2009 pandemic virus, and other twentieth century pandemics. We also consider the impact of the 2009 pandemic in the human population and the use of vaccines and antiviral drugs. Thankfully this outbreak was much less severe than that associated with Spanish flu in 1918. We describe the viral factors that affect virulence of influenza and speculate on the future course of this virus in humans and animals.

Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)

Unlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009), which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults. The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extinction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity. Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population. We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own) to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction. Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.

Household effects of school closure during pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Pennsylvania, USA

To determine the effects of school closure, we surveyed 214 households after a 1-week elementary school closure because of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Students spent 77% of the closure days at home, 69% of students visited at least 1 other location, and 79% of households reported that adults missed no days of work to watch children.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination and class suspensions after outbreaks, Taipei City, Taiwan

In Taipei City, class suspensions were implemented beginning September 1, 2009 when transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection was suspected. The uptake rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination (starting on November 16, 2009) among students 7–18 years of age was 74.7%. Outbreaks were mitigated after late November 2009.

Reconstruction of epidemic curves for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 at city and sub-city levels

To better describe the epidemiology of influenza at local level, the time course of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the city of Hong Kong was reconstructed from notification data after decomposition procedure and time series analysis. GIS (geographic information system) methodology was incorporated for assessing spatial variation. Between May and September 2009, a total of 24415 cases were successfully geocoded, out of 25473 (95.8%) reports in the original dataset. The reconstructed epidemic curve was characterized by a small initial peak, a nadir followed by rapid rise to the ultimate plateau. The full course of the epidemic had lasted for about 6 months. Despite the small geographic area of only 1000 Km2, distinctive spatial variation was observed in the configuration of the curves across 6 geographic regions. With the relatively uniform physical and climatic environment within Hong Kong, the temporo-spatial variability of influenza spread could only be explained by the heterogeneous population structure and mobility patterns. Our study illustrated how an epidemic curve could be reconstructed using regularly collected surveillance data, which would be useful in informing intervention at local levels.

The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Serial cross-sectional data on antibody levels to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus from a population can be used to estimate the infection attack rates and immunity against future infection in the community.

METHODS

From April through December 2009, we obtained 12,217 serum specimens from blood donors (aged 16-59 years), 2520 specimens from hospital outpatients (aged 5-59 years), and 917 specimens from subjects involved in a community pediatric cohort study (aged 5-14 years). We estimated infection attack rates by comparing the proportions of specimens with antibody titers ≥ 1:40 by viral microneutralization before and after the first wave of the pandemic. Estimates were validated using paired serum samples from 324 individuals that spanned the first wave. Combining these estimates with epidemiologic surveillance data, we calculated the proportion of infections that led to hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and death.

RESULTS

We found that 3.3% and 14% of persons aged 5-59 years had antibody titers ≥ 1:40 before and after the first wave, respectively. The overall attack rate was 10.7%, with age stratification as follows: 43.4% in persons aged 5-14 years, 15.8% in persons aged 15-19 years, 11.8% in persons aged 20-29 years, and 4%-4.6% in persons aged 30-59 years. Case-hospitalization rates were 0.47%-0.87% among persons aged 5-59 years. Case-ICU rates were 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 75 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively. Case-fatality rates were 0.4 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 26.5 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half of all school-aged children in Hong Kong were infected during the first wave. Compared with school children aged 5-14 years, older adults aged 50-59 years had 9.5 and 66 times higher risks of ICU admission and death if infected, respectively.

Situational awareness and health protective responses to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Hong Kong: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Whether information sources influence health protective behaviours during influenza pandemics or other emerging infectious disease epidemics is uncertain.

METHODOLOGY

Data from cross-sectional telephone interviews of 1,001 Hong Kong adults in June, 2009 were tested against theory and data-derived hypothesized associations between trust in (formal/informal) information, understanding, self-efficacy, perceived susceptibility and worry, and hand hygiene and social distancing using Structural Equation Modelling with multigroup comparisons.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Trust in formal (government/media) information about influenza was associated with greater reported understanding of A/H1N1 cause (β = 0.36) and A/H1N1 prevention self-efficacy (β = 0.25), which in turn were associated with more hand hygiene (β = 0.19 and β = 0.23, respectively). Trust in informal (interpersonal) information was negatively associated with perceived personal A/H1N1 susceptibility (β = -0.21), which was negatively associated with perceived self-efficacy (β = -0.42) but positively associated with influenza worry (β = 0.44). Trust in informal information was positively associated with influenza worry (β = 0.16) which was in turn associated with greater social distancing (β = 0.36). Multigroup comparisons showed gender differences regarding paths from trust in formal information to understanding of A/H1N1 cause, trust in informal information to understanding of A/H1N1 cause, and understanding of A/H1N1 cause to perceived self-efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Trust in government/media information was more strongly associated with greater self-efficacy and handwashing, whereas trust in informal information was strongly associated with perceived health threat and avoidance behaviour. Risk communication should consider the effect of gender differences.

Reflections on pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and the international response

Gabriel Leung and Angus Nicoll provide their reflections on the international response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including what went well and what changes need to be made in anticipation of future flu pandemics.

Clinical characteristics of Korean pediatric patients critically ill with influenza A (H1N1) virus

BACKGROUND

Novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection has persisted mainly through person-to-person transmission in schools. However, data on critically ill patients infected with H1N1 are currently limited. This study was conducted to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, clinical features, treatment modalities, and clinical outcomes of pediatric patients critically ill with H1N1 infection.

METHODS

Subjects included 30 critically ill pediatric patients reported to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) between June and November 2009. Data were obtained by medical record review and interviews with primary treating physician.

RESULTS

Of the 30 patients, 14 died and 16 were discharged from the hospital with complete recovery. The median patient age was 7 years (range, 2 months to 18 years). Nineteen patients belonged to the high-risk group. Cough was the most common initial symptom, followed by fever. In most patients, serum levels of C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were elevated. Oseltamivir, an antiviral agent, was administered to 29 patients. The most common causes of death were encephalopathy and myocarditis, with a higher mortality rate in the high-risk group. Platelet counts were significantly lower than normal and serum aspartate aminotransferase levels significantly higher in the non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that Korean high-risk pediatric patients have an elevated mortality rate following infection with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. Further studies involving high-risk pediatric patients classified using consistent criteria are needed to confirm our results.

Comparative epidemiology of pandemic and seasonal influenza A in households

BACKGROUND

There are few data on the comparative epidemiology and virology of the pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus and cocirculating seasonal influenza A viruses in community settings.

METHODS

We recruited 348 index patients with acute respiratory illness from 14 outpatient clinics in Hong Kong in July and August 2009. We then prospectively followed household members of 99 patients who tested positive for influenza A virus on rapid diagnostic testing. We collected nasal and throat swabs from all household members at three home visits within 7 days for testing by means of quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay and viral culture. Using hemagglutination-inhibition and viral-neutralization assays, we tested baseline and convalescent serum samples from a subgroup of patients for antibody responses to the pandemic and seasonal influenza A viruses.

RESULTS

Secondary attack rates (as confirmed on RT-PCR assay) among household contacts of index patients were similar for the pandemic influenza virus (8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3 to 14) and seasonal influenza viruses (9%; 95% CI, 5 to 15). The patterns of viral shedding and the course of illness among index patients were also similar for the pandemic and seasonal influenza viruses. In a subgroup of patients for whom baseline and convalescent serum samples were available, 36% of household contacts who had serologic evidence of pandemic influenza virus infection did not shed detectable virus or report illness.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus has characteristics that are broadly similar to those of seasonal influenza A viruses in terms of rates of viral shedding, clinical illness, and transmissibility in the household setting.