CYP2C9 Genotype-guided Warfarin Prescribing Enhances the Efficacy and Safety of Anticoagulation: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Study

Next generation DNA sequencing and the future of genomic medicine

In the years since the first complete human genome sequence was reported, there has been a rapid development of technologies to facilitate high-throughput sequence analysis of DNA (termed “next-generation” sequencing). These novel approaches to DNA sequencing offer the promise of complete genomic analysis at a cost feasible for routine clinical diagnostics. However, the ability to more thoroughly interrogate genomic sequence raises a number of important issues with regard to result interpretation, laboratory workflow, data storage, and ethical considerations. This review describes the current high-throughput sequencing platforms commercially available, and compares the inherent advantages and disadvantages of each. The potential applications for clinical diagnostics are considered, as well as the need for software and analysis tools to interpret the vast amount of data generated. Finally, we discuss the clinical and ethical implications of the wealth of genetic information generated by these methods. Despite the challenges, we anticipate that the evolution and refinement of high-throughput DNA sequencing technologies will catalyze a new era of personalized medicine based on individualized genomic analysis.

Pharmacogenetics of warfarin

Warfarin is a drug with a narrow therapeutic index and a wide interindividual variability in dose requirement. Because it is difficult to predict an accurate dose for an individual, patients starting the drug are at risk of thromboembolism or bleeding associated with underdosing or overdosing, respectively. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) and vitamin K epoxide reductase (VKOR) genes have been shown to have a significant effect on warfarin dose requirement. Other genes mediating the action of warfarin make either little or no contribution to dose requirement. Although the polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 explain a significant proportion of the interindividual variability in warfarin dose requirement, currently available evidence based on a few small studies relating to the use of pharmacogenetics-guided dosing in the initiation of warfarin therapy has not shown improved outcomes in either safety or efficacy of therapy. Better clinical evidence of beneficial effects on patient outcome, particularly at the extremes of the dose requirements in geographically and ethnically diverse patient populations, is needed before the role of a pharmacogenomic approach to oral anticoagulation therapy in clinical practice can be established.

Personalized medicine and genomics: challenges and opportunities in assessing effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and future research priorities

Personalized medicine is health care that tailors interventions to individual variation in risk and treatment response. Although medicine has long strived to achieve this goal, advances in genomics promise to facilitate this process. Relevant to present-day practice is the use of genomic information to classify individuals according to disease susceptibility or expected responsiveness to a pharmacologic treatment and to provide targeted interventions. A symposium at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making on 23 October 2007 highlighted the challenges and opportunities posed in translating advances in molecular medicine into clinical practice. A panel of US experts in medical practice, regulatory policy, technology assessment, and the financing and organization of medical innovation was asked to discuss the current state of practice and research on personalized medicine as it relates to their own field. This article reports on the issues raised, discusses potential approaches to meet these challenges, and proposes directions for future work. The case of genetic testing to inform dosing with warfarin, an anticoagulant, is used to illustrate differing perspectives on evidence and decision making for personalized medicine.

Implementing genotype-guided antithrombotic therapy

Genotyping has the potential to improve the efficacy and safety of major antithrombotic drugs. For warfarin, the stable maintenance dose varies from 1-10 mg/day. The VKORC1 -1639G>A allele and the CYP2C9*2 and *3 alleles (cumulative frequency: 90% in Asians, 65% in Europeans and 20% in Africans), explain 45% of response variability in European and 30% in African populations. The large clinical trials COAG and EU-PACT will define the extent to which pharmacogenetic dosing affects the safety and efficacy of warfarin and coumarin derivatives. The platelet inhibitor clopidogrel requires activation by the CYP2C19 enzyme. CYP2C19*2 and *3 alleles (cumulative frequency: 20-50%) produce null enzyme activity, and their presence attenuates platelet inhibition and increases cardiovascular events. The US FDA-mandated drug labeling recognizes the relevance of genotyping in the selection and dosing of both warfarin and clopidogrel.

A simulation of warfarin maintenance dose requirement using a pharmacogenetic algorithm in an ethnically diverse cohort

AIMS

Patient demographics and variant alleles in the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes account for 50% of the population variability in warfarin maintenance doses. These variant alleles occur in varying frequencies between racial groups and contribute to differences in mean dose requirements between these groups. We used a pharmacogenetic simulation to estimate warfarin maintenance doses in an ethnically diverse cohort.

MATERIALS & METHODS

In total, 366 individuals with coronary disease, of mixed South Pacific and European ethnicity, were genotyped for the CYP2C9*2 (rs1799853), *3 (rs1057910) and the VKORC1*2 haplotype, -1639 G>A, (rs9923231). The cohort contained New Zealand Europeans (n = 287), Mãori (n = 49), Pacific Islanders (n = 21) and Chinese subjects (n = 9). SNPs were genotyped using the Sequenom (CA, USA) mass spectrometer. Body surface area, age, smoking status and genotype were entered into a modified pharmacogenetic algorithm with a target international normalized ratio of 2.5. Bootstrap analysis using the @RISK software v5.0, (Palisade Co., NY, USA) was performed to simulate a population of 1000 for each ethnic group.

RESULTS

Simulated warfarin doses were lower in Chinese subjects than New Zealand Europeans (Δ1.39 mg; 95% CI: 0.4-2.4; p = 0.006) owing to the high prevalence of the VKORC1*2 haplotype in Chinese subjects. Doses were higher in Pacific Islanders compared with New Zealand Europeans (Δ1.26 mg; 95% CI: 0.6-1.9; p = 0.0002) owing to the near absence of the CYP2C9 variant alleles. Simulated warfarin doses in Mãori patients were similar to those in European patients.

CONCLUSION

This simulation study demonstrated differences in mean warfarin maintenance doses between ethnic groups in this cohort. Individualizing treatment regimens, using pharmacogenetics, may reduce ethnic disparities in treatment outcomes, particularly if differences can be appreciated at the genomic level.

A pharmacometric model describing the relationship between warfarin dose and INR response with respect to variations in CYP2C9, VKORC1, and age

The objective of the study was to update a previous NONMEM model to describe the relationship between warfarin dose and international normalized ratio (INR) response, to decrease the dependence of the model on pharmacokinetic (PK) data, and to improve the characterization of rare genotype combinations. The effects of age and CYP2C9 genotype on S-warfarin clearance were estimated from high-quality PK data. Thereafter, a temporal dose-response (K-PD) model was developed from information on dose, INR, age, and CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotype, with drug clearance as a covariate. Two transit compartment chains accounted for the delay between exposure and response. CYP2C9 genotype was identified as the single most important predictor of required dose, causing a difference of up to 4.2-fold in the maintenance dose. VKORC1 accounted for a difference of up to 2.1-fold in dose, and age reduced the dose requirement by ~6% per decade. This reformulated K-PD model decreases dependence on PK data and enables robust assessment of INR response and dose predictions, even in individuals with rare genotype combinations.

Optimal loading dose for the initiation of warfarin: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Selection of the right warfarin dose at the outset of treatment is not straightforward, and current evidence is lacking to determine the optimal strategy for initiation of therapy.

METHODS

We included randomized controlled trials in patients commencing anticoagulation with warfarin, comparing different loading dose or different regimens.We searched Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and the NHS Health Economics Database up to June 2009. Primary outcomes were time to stable INR and adverse events. We summarised results as proportion of INRs in range from date of initiation and compared dichotomous outcomes using relative risks (RR) and calculated 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

We included 11 studies of 1,340 patients newly initiated on warfarin. In two studies that used single INR measures, a loading dose of 10 mg compared to 5 mg led to more patients in range on day five. However, in two studies which measured two consecutive INRs, a loading dose of 10 mg compared to 5 mg did not lead to more patients in range on day five (RR = 0.86, 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.19, p = 0.37). Patients receiving a 2.5 mg initiation does took longer to achieve the therapeutic range, whilst those receiving a calculated initiation dose achieved target range 0.8 days quicker (4.2 days vs. 5 days, p = 0.007). More elderly patients receiving an age adjusted dose achieved a stable INR compared to the Fennerty protocol (48% vs. 22% p = 0.02) and significantly fewer patients on the age adjusted regimens had high out-of-range INRs. Two studies report no significant differences between genotype guided and 5 mg or 10 mg initiation doses and in the one significant genotype study the control group INRs were significantly lower than expected.

CONCLUSION

Our review findings suggest there is still considerable uncertainty between a 10 mg and a 5 mg loading dose for initiation of warfarin. In the elderly, lower initiation doses or age adjusted doses are more appropriate, leading to less higher INRs. Currently there is insufficient evidence to warrant genotype guided initiation, and adequately powered trials to detect effects on adverse events are currently warranted.

Warfarin genotyping reduces hospitalization rates results from the MM-WES (Medco-Mayo Warfarin Effectiveness study)

OBJECTIVES

This study was designed to determine whether genotype testing for patients initiating warfarin treatment will reduce the incidence of hospitalizations, including those due to bleeding or thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND

Genotypic variations in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 have been shown to predict warfarin dosing, but no large-scale studies have prospectively evaluated the clinical effectiveness of genotyping in naturalistic settings across the U.S.

METHODS

This national, prospective, comparative effectiveness study compared the 6-month incidence of hospitalization in patients receiving warfarin genotyping (n = 896) versus a matched historical control group (n = 2,688). To evaluate for temporal changes in the outcomes of warfarin treatment, a secondary analysis compared outcomes for 2 external control groups drawn from the same 2 time periods.

RESULTS

Compared with the historical control group, the genotyped cohort had 31% fewer hospitalizations overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58 to 0.82, p < 0.001) and 28% fewer hospitalizations for bleeding or thromboembolism (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.97, p = 0.029) during the 6-month follow-up period. Findings from a per-protocol analysis were even stronger: 33% lower risk of all-cause hospitalization (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.81, p < 0.001) and 43% lower risk of hospitalization for bleeding or thromboembolism (HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39 to 0.83, p = 0.003) in patients who were genotyped. During the same period, there was no difference in outcomes between the 2 external control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin genotyping reduced the risk of hospitalization in outpatients initiating warfarin. (The Clinical and Economic Impact of Pharmacogenomic Testing of Warfarin Therapy in Typical Community Practice Settings [MHSMayoWarf1]; NCT00830570).

Back to the future: why randomized controlled trials cannot be the answer to pharmacogenomics and personalized medicine

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for determining the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. However, medical practice has not evolved around the concept of randomized trials, but around the idea of careful observations, (anecdotal) case studies and the evaluation of retrospective data. Interventions discovered by these means and taken forward into clinical practice became standard practice as they continued to be superior when compared with prior or alternative types of treatment. Personalized medicine refers to an approach of clinical practice where a particular treatment is not chosen based on the 'average patient', but on characteristics of an individual patient, for example, a genetic profile that may vary from one patient to another, and therefore, allows to 'personalize' the treatment to a patient's individual needs. While the call for prospective randomized controlled trials to assess the effective use of such measurement may make sense in some cases, it is, when applied without distinction, hindering the implementation of personalized medicine. Important evidence for the validity and clinical effectiveness of using biomarkers, for example, a patient's genetic profile, can be gained from alternative approaches, including case-control and cohort studies, and retrospective analyses of data. Hence, we need to re-focus on approaches that are neither new nor unproven, but have been ignored over the last few decades.

Validation and comparison of pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithms for application of pharmacogenetic testing

Warfarin is a widely prescribed drug that is difficult to use because of its narrow therapeutic window. Genetic polymorphisms associated with warfarin metabolism have been identified, but the clinical utility of genetic testing in warfarin dosing has not been established. External validation of published algorithms is critical to determine the best prediction for warfarin dosing in prospective trials. We used two independent datasets totaling 1095 patients to evaluate four published algorithms and a simple prediction algorithm developed in this study based on the CYP2C9*2, CYP2C9*3, and VKORC1 -1639 polymorphisms in 150 patients taking warfarin. Predicted warfarin doses were calculated and compared for accuracy with actual maintenance doses. All evaluated pharmacogenetics-based dosing algorithms performed similarly for both datasets. The proportion of variation explained (R(2)) was high (60% to 65%) in the small white-only Connecticut dataset but low (36% to 46%) in the large dataset on a diverse ethnic population from the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC). When comparing the percentage of patients whose predicted dosage are within 20% of actual, the IWPC algorithm performed the best overall (45.9%) for the two datasets combined while other algorithms performed nearly as well. Because no algorithm could be considered the best for all dosing ranges, it may be important to consider the nature of a local service population in choosing the most appropriate pharmacogenetics-based dosing algorithm.

Role of warfarin pharmacogenetic testing in clinical practice

Chronic oral anticoagulation with warfarin is difficult to maintain within the therapeutic range and requires frequent monitoring and dose adjustments. Variations in two genes, VKORC1 and CYP2C9, have been associated with variation in warfarin metabolism among individuals. Patients with CYP2C9*2 and *3 variants have longer times to dose stabilization and are at higher risk of serious and life-threatening bleeding. VKORC1 polymorphisms significantly influence time to first therapeutic warfarin range, and variants in this gene determine low-, intermediate- and high-warfarin dose requirements. The prevalence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 polymorphisms vary among different ethnic groups, and can account for over 30% of variance in warfarin dose. Recent studies suggest that the pharmacogenomics-guided dosing algorithm can accurately predict warfarin dosage and might reduce adverse events. We aim to review the pharmacogenetics of warfarin metabolism and the clinical role of genetic testing for warfarin therapy.

Survey on warfarin pharmacogenetic testing among anticoagulation providers

AIMS

Our study aimed to assess anticoagulation providers' perception and knowledge of warfarin pharmacogenetic testing, and to identify barriers to using it in their clinical practice.

MATERIALS & METHODS

An online survey that included 5 perception and 5 knowledge questions about the testing was conducted on anticoagulation providers in North America. Participants were also asked to rank the three most significant barriers to using it.

RESULTS

The survey response rate was 22%. Over 40% of 448 providers participating in the study were undecided about the testing's potential clinical benefits. On average, providers correctly answered 2 out of 5 knowledge questions. Self confidence in interpreting test results significantly predicted the providers' accuracy of the interpretation. The top three barriers were inadequate literature evidence, testing's impracticality and unproven applicability.

CONCLUSION

Most of the providers did not respond to the survey. Our study suggests inadequate literature evidence influences providers' perception and their use of the testing. In addition, provider education on warfarin pharmacogenetics may be necessary for testing's widespread use.

Ability of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 to predict therapeutic warfarin dose during the initial weeks of therapy

BACKGROUND

CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes predict therapeutic warfarin dose at initiation of therapy; however, the predictive ability of genetic information after a week or longer is unknown. Experts have hypothesized that genotype becomes irrelevant once international normalized ratio (INR) values are available because INR response reflects warfarin sensitivity.

METHODS

We genotyped the participants in the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism (PREVENT) trial, who had idiopathic venous thromboemboli and began low-intensity warfarin (therapeutic INR 1.5-2.0) using a standard dosing protocol. To develop pharmacogenetic models, we quantified the effect of genotypes, clinical factors, previous doses and INR on therapeutic warfarin dose in the 223 PREVENT participants who were randomized to warfarin and achieved stable therapeutic INRs.

RESULTS

A pharmacogenetic model using data from day 0 (before therapy initiation) explained 54% of the variability in therapeutic dose (R(2)). The R(2) increased to 68% at day 7, 75% at day 14, and 77% at day 21, because of increasing contributions from prior doses and INR response. Although CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes were significant independent predictors of therapeutic dose at each weekly interval, the magnitude of their predictive ability diminished over time: partial R(2) of genotype was 43% at day 0, 12% at day 7, 4% at day 14, and 1% at day 21.

CONCLUSION

Over the first weeks of warfarin therapy, INR and prior dose become increasingly predictive of therapeutic dose, and genotype becomes less relevant. However, at day 7, genotype remains clinically relevant, accounting for 12% of therapeutic dose variability.

Comparative effectiveness research and personalized medicine: catalyzing or colliding?

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is generating intense attention as interest grows in finding new and better drug technology assessment processes. The federal government is supporting the expansion of CER through funding made available in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) and by establishing the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute through the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. At the same time, personalized medicine is generating debate about its place in clinical medicine, and so, naturally, how CER can or cannot play a role in personalized medicine is part of these debates. At the heart of the debate around the role of CER in personalized medicine is the nature of personalized medicine and how it fits within contemporary clinical research concepts. We maintain in this article that CER can serve to catalyze personalized medicine, but we recognize that, for this to happen, researchers will need to embrace new data sources and new analytic approaches. We also recognize that drug technology assessment processes will have to undergo necessary adaptations to accommodate CER as configured for personalized medicine, and that clinicians will need to be educated appropriately and provided access to decision-support systems through health information technology to use the information coming from this research. To illustrate our argument, we describe two ongoing CER studies funded and managed in the private sector evaluating personalized medicine interventions that have important clinical and financial implications. One of the studies investigates the clinical and financial effects of pharmacogenomic testing for warfarin as prescribed in conditions of typical practice settings. The other study is also set in community practice settings and compares cardiovascular outcomes of patients receiving clopidogrel who are extensive metabolizer phenotypes for the cytochrome P450 2C19 hepatic isoenzyme with all patients receiving prasugrel.

A policy model to evaluate the benefits, risks and costs of warfarin pharmacogenomic testing

BACKGROUND

In 2007, the US FDA added information about pharmacogenomics to the warfarin label based on the influence of the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes on anticoagulation-related outcomes. Payers will be facing increasing demand for coverage decisions regarding this technology, but the potential clinical and economic impacts of testing are not clear.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a policy model to evaluate the potential outcomes of warfarin pharmacogenomic testing based on the most recently available data.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to assess the addition of genetic testing to anticoagulation clinic standard care for a hypothetical cohort of warfarin patients. The model was based on anticoagulation status (international normalized ratio), a common outcome measure in clinical trials that captures both the benefits and risks of warfarin therapy. Initial estimates of testing effects were derived from a recently completed randomized controlled trial (n = 200). Healthcare cost ($US, year 2007 values) and health-state utility data were obtained from the literature. The perspective was that of a US third-party payer. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the range of plausible results.

RESULTS

The policy model included thromboembolic events (TEs) and bleeding events and was populated by data from the COUMAGEN trial. The rate of bleeding calculated for standard care approximated bleeding rates found in an independent cohort of warfarin patients. According to our model, pharmacogenomic testing provided an absolute reduction in the incidence of bleeds of 0.17%, but an absolute increase in the incidence of TEs of 0.03%. The improvement in QALYs was small, 0.003, with an increase in total cost of $US162 (year 2007 values). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranged from testing dominating to standard care dominating, and the ICER was <$US50,000 per QALY in 46% of simulations. Results were most sensitive to the cost of genotyping and the effect of genotyping.

CONCLUSION

Our model, based on initial clinical studies to date, suggests that warfarin pharmacogenomic testing may provide a small clinical benefit with significant uncertainty in economic value. Given the uncertainty in the analysis, further updates will be important as additional clinical data become available.

10 years of oral anticoagulant pharmacogenomics: what difference will it make? A critical appraisal

Since the first report on warfarin pharmacogenetics in 1999, genetic variants have emerged as an important predictor of warfarin maintenance doses before therapy is initiated, raising expectations of greatly improved clinical outcomes. However, much of the information on warfarin sensitivity conveyed by genetic variants is captured by early international normalized ratio values traditionally used to guide dose titration. Thus, inclusion of early international normalized ratios in prediction models reduces the contribution of genetics. Moreover, in large population cohorts, genetics explained only 20–30% of variance in warfarin doses. Finally, even pharmacogenetic prediction models did not predict doses reliably in the majority of at-risk patients with warfarin requirements at the low or high end of the dose range. Currently, the clinical utility and cost–effectiveness of pharmacogenetic-based dosing are being assessed in large prospective trials in various settings. In the interim, enthusiasm for warfarin pharmacogenetics should not supersede strict adherence to traditional measures used to optimize coumarin anticoagulation.

Pharmacogenomic trial design: use of a PK/PD model to explore warfarin dosing interventions through clinical trial simulation

OBJECTIVE

Variants of two genes, CYP2C9 and VKORC1, explain approximately one third of variability in warfarin maintenance dose requirements. However, the clinical utility of using this information in addition to clinical and demographic data ('pharmacogenomic-guidance') is unclear, as few comparative clinical trials have been conducted to date. The objective of this study was to explore the incremental effect of pharmacogenomic-guided warfarin dosing under various conditions using clinical trial simulation.

METHODS

We used an existing pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to perform clinical trial simulations of pharmacogenomic-guided versus standard of care warfarin therapy. The primary outcome was the percentage of patient time spent in therapeutic range over the first month of therapy. We assessed the influence of the frequency of INR monitoring, and the use of a loading dose and dose increase delay in patients with CYP2C9 variants.

RESULTS

Pharmacogenomic guidance resulted in a 3-4 percentage point absolute increase in time spent in therapeutic range over the first month of therapy compared with standard of care. The improvement in time in range was greater when the frequency of INR monitoring in both arms was assumed to be lower. The absolute difference increased to 6-8 percentage points with the use of a loading dose and dose increase delay in patients with a CYP2C9 variant.

CONCLUSION

Our initial results imply that pharmacogenomic-guided warfarin dosing may be more useful in settings with less intensive patient follow-up, and when adjustments are made for slower therapeutic response in patients with a CYP2C9 variant. Further pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model development may be useful for warfarin pharmacogenomic trial design.

Warfarin sensitivity genotyping: a review of the literature and summary of patient experience

The antithrombotic benefits of warfarin are countered by a narrow therapeutic index that contributes to excessive bleeding or cerebrovascular clotting and stroke in some patients. This article reviews the current literature describing warfarin sensitivity genotyping and compares the results of that review to the findings of our study in 189 patients at Mayo Clinic conducted between June 2001 and April 2003. For the review of the literature, we identified relevant peer-reviewed articles by searching the Web of Knowledge using key word warfarin-related adverse event. For the 189 Mayo Clinic patients initiating warfarin therapy to achieve a target international normalized ratio (INR) in the range of 2.0 to 3.5, we analyzed the CYP2C9 (cytochrome P450 2C9) and VKORC1 (vitamin K epoxide reductase complex, subunit 1) genetic loci to study the relationship among the initial warfarin dose, steady-state dose, time to achieve steady-state dose, variations in INR, and allelic variance. Results were compared with those previously reported in the literature for 637 patients. The relationships between allelic variants and warfarin sensitivity found in our study of Mayo Clinic patients are fundamentally the same as in those reported by others. The Mayo Clinic population is predominantly white and shows considerable allelic variability in CYP2C9 and VKORC1. Certain of these alleles are associated with increased sensitivity to warfarin. Polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 have a considerable effect on warfarin dose in white people. A correlation between steady-state warfarin dose and allelic variants of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 has been demonstrated by many previous reports and is reconfirmed in this report. The allelic variants found to most affect warfarin sensitivity are CYP2C9*1*1-VKORC1BB (less warfarin sensitivity than typical); CYP2C9*1*1-VKORC1AA (considerable variance in INR throughout initiation); CYP2C9*1*2-VKORC1AB (more sensitivity to warfarin than typical); CYP2C9*1*3-VKORC1AB (much more sensitivity to warfarin than typical); CYP2C9*1*2-VKORC1AB (much more sensitivity to warfarin than typical); CYP2C9*1*3-VKORC1AA (much more sensitivity to warfarin than typical); and CYP2C9*2*2-VKORC1AB (much more sensitivity to warfarin than typical). Although we were unable to show an association between allelic variants and initial warfarin dose or dose escalation, an association was seen between allelic variant and steady-state warfarin dose. White people show considerable variance in CYP2C9 allele types, whereas people of Asian or African descent infrequently carry CYP2C9 allelic variants. The VKORC1AA allele associated with high warfarin sensitivity predominates in those of Asian descent, whereas white people and those of African descent show diversity, carrying either the VKORC1BB, an allele associated with low warfarin sensitivity, or VKORC1AB or VKORC1AA, alleles associated with moderate and high warfarin sensitivity, respectively.

Genetics and the general physician: insights, applications and future challenges

Scientific and technological advances in our understanding of the nature and consequences of human genetic variation are now allowing genetic determinants of susceptibility to common multifactorial diseases to be defined, as well as our individual response to therapy. I review how genome-wide association studies are robustly identifying new disease susceptibility loci, providing insights into disease pathogenesis and potential targets for drug therapy. Some of the remarkable advances being made using current genetic approaches in Crohn's disease, coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation are described, together with examples from malaria, HIV/AIDS, asthma, prostate cancer and venous thrombosis which illustrate important principles underpinning this field of research. The limitations of current approaches are also noted, highlighting how much of the genetic risk remains unexplained and resolving specific functional variants difficult. There is a need to more clearly understand the significance of rare variants and structural genomic variation in common disease, as well as epigenetic mechanisms. Specific examples from pharmacogenomics are described including warfarin dosage and prediction of abacavir hypersensitivity that illustrate how in some cases such knowledge is already impacting on clinical practice, while in others prospective evaluation of clinical utility and cost-effectiveness is required to define opportunities for personalized medicine. There is also a need for a broader debate about the ethical implications of current advances in genetics for medicine and society.

Genetic and environmental factors determining clinical outcomes and cost of warfarin therapy: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

In this prospective cohort study, we have undertaken a comprehensive evaluation of clinical parameters along with variation in 29 genes (including CYP2C9 and VKORC1) to identify factors determining interindividual variability in warfarin response.

METHODS

Consecutive patients (n=311) were followed up prospectively for 26 weeks. Several outcomes chosen to capture both warfarin efficacy and toxicity were assessed. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were undertaken to assess the combined effect of clinical and genetic factors.

RESULTS

CYP2C9 was the most important gene determining initial anticoagulant control, whereas VKORC1 was more important for stable anticoagulation. Novel associations with some clinical outcomes were found with single nucleotide polymorphisms in the cytochrome 450 genes CYP2C18 and CYP2C19, which were independent of the associations observed with CYP2C9 and in genes encoding CYP3A5, protein S and clotting factor V, although the variability explained by these genes was small. On the basis of the results of microcosting, adverse events were shown to be a significant predictor of total cost.

CONCLUSION

Accurate prediction of warfarin dose requirement needs to take into account multiple genetic and environmental factors, the contributions of which vary in the induction and maintenance phases of treatment.

Interactive modeling for ongoing utility of pharmacogenetic diagnostic testing: application for warfarin therapy

BACKGROUND

The application of pharmacogenetic results requires demonstrable correlations between a test result and an indicated specific course of action. We developed a computational decision-support tool that combines patient-specific genotype and phenotype information to provide strategic dosage guidance. This tool, through estimating quantitative and temporal parameters associated with the metabolism- and concentration-dependent response to warfarin, provides the necessary patient-specific context for interpreting international normalized ratio (INR) measurements.

METHODS

We analyzed clinical information, plasma S-warfarin concentration, and CYP2C9 (cytochrome P450, family 2, subfamily C, polypeptide 9) and VKORC1 (vitamin K epoxide reductase complex, subunit 1) genotypes for 137 patients with stable INRs. Plasma S-warfarin concentrations were evaluated by VKORC1 genotype (-1639G>A). The steady-state plasma S-warfarin concentration was calculated with CYP2C9 genotype-based clearance rates and compared with actual measurements.

RESULTS

The plasma S-warfarin concentration required to yield the target INR response is significantly (P < 0.05) associated with VKORC1 -1639G>A genotype (GG, 0.68 mg/L; AG, 0.48 mg/L; AA, 0.27 mg/L). Modeling of the plasma S-warfarin concentration according to CYP2C9 genotype predicted 58% of the variation in measured S-warfarin concentration: Measured [S-warfarin] = 0.67(Estimated [S-warfarin]) + 0.16 mg/L.

CONCLUSIONS

The target interval of plasma S-warfarin concentration required to yield a therapeutic INR can be predicted from the VKORC1 genotype (pharmacodynamics), and the progressive changes in S-warfarin concentration after repeated daily dosing can be predicted from the CYP2C9 genotype (pharmacokinetics). Combining the application of multivariate equations for estimating the maintenance dose with genotype-guided pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics modeling provides a powerful tool for maximizing the value of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 test results for ongoing application to patient care.

Genotype-guided dosing of coumarin derivatives: the European pharmacogenetics of anticoagulant therapy (EU-PACT) trial design

The narrow therapeutic range and wide interpatient variability in dose requirement make anticoagulation response to coumarin derivatives unpredictable. As a result, patients require frequent monitoring to avert adverse effects and maintain therapeutic efficacy. Polymorphisms in VKORC1 and CYP2C9 jointly account for about 40% of the interindividual variability in dose requirements. To date, several pharmacogenetic-guided dosing algorithms for coumarin derivatives, predominately for warfarin, have been developed. However, the potential benefit of these dosing algorithms in terms of their safety and clinical utility has not been adequately investigated in randomized settings. The European Pharmacogenetics of Anticoagulant Therapy (EU-PACT) trial will assess, in a single-blinded and randomized controlled trial with a follow-up period of 3 months, the safety and clinical utility of genotype-guided dosing in daily practice for the three main coumarin derivatives used in Europe. The primary outcome measure is the percentage time in the therapeutic range for international normalized ratio. This report describes the design and protocol for the trial.

Antithrombotic management of patients with prosthetic heart valves: current evidence and future trends

Over 4 million people worldwide have received a prosthetic heart valve, and an estimated 300,000 valves are being implanted every year. Prosthetic heart valves improve quality of life and survival of patients with severe valvular heart disease, but the need for antithrombotic therapy to prevent thrombotic complications in valve recipients poses challenges for clinicians and patients. Here, we review antithrombotic therapies for patients with prosthetic heart valves and management of thromboembolic complications. Advances in antithrombotic therapy and valve technologies are likely to improve the management of patients with prosthetic heart valves in developed countries, but the most important unmet need and potential for benefit from these new therapies is in developing countries where a massive and rapidly increasing burden of valvular heart disease exists.

Predicting warfarin maintenance dose in patients with venous thromboembolism based on the response to a standardized warfarin initiation nomogram

BACKGROUND

Polymorphisms in the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genes influence warfarin requirements. It has been suggested that dosing algorithms incorporating them might outperform usual care. Standardized warfarin initiation nomograms are safe and effective and patients' responses to them could be used to predict warfarin requirements without the need for genetic testing.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a model to predict warfarin dose requirements based on the response to a standard nomogram without using genetic testing.

PATIENTS/METHODS

We included 363 outpatients with acute venous thromboembolism who were started on treatment using a standardized warfarin nomogram and achieved a stable maintenance warfarin dose defined as a dose prescribed twice consecutively after two consecutive INR measurements between 2.0 and 3.0. Linear regression was used to derive equations predicting the maintenance dose and models were validated using non-parametric bootstrapping and tested in an independent cohort.

RESULTS

Three models were constructed for patients completing the nomogram until day 3 (warfarin dose (mg week(-1)) = Exp [2.737 + 1.896(INR(3)(-1))-0.008(Age)]; R2adj = 0.462), day 5 (warfarin dose (mg week(-1)) = Exp[2.261 + 2.412(INR(3)(-1)) -0.285(DeltaINR(5-3))]; R2adj = 0.603) and day 8 (warfarin dose (mg week(-1)) = Exp[1.574 + 1.788(INR(8)(-1)) + 0.024(cumulated warfarin dose until nomogram day 7)]; R2adj = 0.643), where Exp is the exponential function; INR3 and INR8 are the INR on days 3 or 8 of the nomogram, and DeltaINR(5-3) is the difference in the INR on days 5 and 3. All models were internally and externally validated and were accurate to within 25% of the actual dose in >60% of patients.

CONCLUSION

Maintenance warfarin dose can be accurately predicted using individual response to a standard warfarin initiation nomogram without the need for costly genetic testing.

Cost-effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin dosing for patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotyping has been advocated as a means of improving the accuracy of warfarin dosing. However, the effectiveness of genotyping in improving anticoagulation control and reducing major bleeding has not yet been compellingly demonstrated. Genotyping currently costs $400 to $550.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We constructed a Markov model to evaluate whether and under what circumstances genetically-guided warfarin dosing could be cost-effective for newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients. Estimates of clinical event rates, treatment and adverse event costs, and utilities for health states were derived from the published literature. The cost-effectiveness of genetically-guided dosing was highly dependent on the assumed effectiveness of genotyping in increasing the amount of time patients spend appropriately anticoagulated. If genotyping increases the time spent in the target international normalized ratio range by <5 percentage points, its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be greater than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio falls below $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year if genotyping increases the time spent in range by 9 percentage points. The results were also sensitive to assumptions about the rate of major bleeding events during treatment initiation and the cost of the test.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that genotyping before warfarin initiation will be cost-effective for patients with atrial fibrillation only if it reduces out-of-range international normalized ratio values by more than 5 to 9 percentage points compared with usual care. Given the current uncertainty surrounding genotyping efficacy, caution should be taken in advocating the widespread adoption of this strategy.

A genome-wide association study of acenocoumarol maintenance dosage

Several genome-wide association studies have been performed on warfarin. For acenocoumarol, the most frequently used coumarin in many countries worldwide, pharmacodynamic influences are expected to be comparable. Pharmacokinetics however might differ. We aimed to confirm known or identify new genetic variants contributing to interindividual variation on stabilized acenocoumarol dosage by a GWAS. The index population consisted of 1451 Caucasian subjects from the Rotterdam study and results were replicated in 287 subjects from the Rotterdam study extended cohort. Both cohorts were genotyped on the Illumina 550K Human Map SNP array. From polymorphisms tested for association with acenocoumarol dosage, 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 16 and 18 SNPs on chromosome 10 reached genome-wide significance. The SNP with the lowest P-value was rs10871454 on chromosome 16 linked to SNPs within the vitamin K epoxide reductase complex subunit 1 (VKORC1) (P = 2.0 x 10(-123)). The lowest P-value on chromosome 10 was obtained by rs4086116 within cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) (P = 3.3 x 10(-24)). After adjustment for these SNPs, the rs2108622 polymorphism within cytochrome P450 4F2 (CYP4F2) gene on chromosome 19 reached genome-wide significance (P = 2.0 x 10(-8)). On chromosome 10, we further identified genetic variation in the cytochrome P450 2C18 (CYP2C18) gene contributing to variance of acenocoumarol dosage. Thus we confirmed earlier findings that acenocoumarol dosage mainly depends on polymorphisms in the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genes. Besides age, gender, body mass index and target INR, one polymorphism within each of the VKORC1, CYP2C9, CYP4F2 and CYP2C18 genes could explain 48.8% of acenocoumarol dosage variation.

Pharmacogenomics of adverse drug reactions: practical applications and perspectives

Serious adverse drug reactions represent the sixth major cause of death in the USA, are the main reason for postmarketing drug withdrawal and represent billions of US dollars in costs every year in all developed countries. Some of these serious adverse drug reactions might be avoided by systematically screening for pharmacogenomic risk factors. During the last few years, regulatory agencies introduced pharmacogenomics labels for several drugs, but although a priori genetic testing remains advised or recommended, it is seldom compulsory due to poor evidence-based medicine knowledge. Recently published pharmacogenomic randomized, controlled and ongoing trials will progressively make genotyping tests, such as those for HLA-B*5701 (abacavir), TPMT (6-mercaptopurine), CYP2C9 plus VKORC1 (warfarin) and CYP3A5 (tacrolimus), mandatory. Parallel development of pharmacogenomic bed tests will certainly establish genetically-based prescriptions in routine medical practice.

Validation of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotypes on interindividual warfarin maintenance dose: a prospective study in Chinese patients

OBJECTIVES

To develop a warfarin-dosing algorithm that could be combined with pharmacogenomic and demographic factors, and to evaluate its effectiveness in a randomized prospective controlled clinical trial.

METHODS

A pharmacogenetics-based dosing model was derived using retrospective data from 266 Chinese patients and multiple linear regression analysis. To prospectively validate this model, 156 patients with an operation of heart valve replacement were enrolled and randomly assigned to the group of pharmacogenetics-guided or traditional dosing for warfarin therapy. All patients were followed up for 50 days after initiation of warfarin therapy. The log-rank test was compared with the time-to-event (Kaplan-Meier) curves. Cox proportional hazards-regression model was used to assess the hazard ratio of the time to reach stable dose.

RESULTS

The linear regression model derived from the pharmacogenomic model correlated with 54.1% of warfarin dosing variance. The final multiple linear regression model included age, body surface area, VKORC1, and CYP2C9 genotype. The study showed that the hazard ratio for the time to reach stable dose was 1.932 for the traditional dosing group versus the model-based group and a close and highly significant relationship was observed to exist between the predicted and the actual warfarin dose (R=0.454).

CONCLUSION

A pharmacogenetics-based dosing algorithm has been developed for improvement in the time to reach the stable dosing of warfarin. This model may be useful in helping the clinicians to prescribe warfarin with greater safety and efficiency.

Genetic testing before anticoagulation? A systematic review of pharmacogenetic dosing of warfarin

BACKGROUND

Genotype-guided initial warfarin dosing may reduce over-anticoagulation and serious bleeding compared to a one-dose-fits-all dosing method.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this review was to investigate the safety and efficacy of genotype-guided dosing of warfarin in reducing the occurrence of serious bleeding events and over-anticoagulation.

DATA SOURCES

The authors searched PubMed, EMBASE and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts through January 23, 2009, without language restrictions. Selected articles were randomized trials comparing pharmacogenetic dosing of warfarin versus a "standard" dose control algorithm in adult patients taking warfarin for the first time.

REVIEW METHODS

Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality using a validated instrument. The primary outcomes were major bleeding and time spent within the therapeutic range International Normalized Ratio (INR). Secondary outcomes included minor bleeding, thrombotic events and other measures of anticoagulation quality.

RESULTS

Three of 2,014 studies (423 patients) met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Differences in study quality, dosing algorithms, length of follow-up and outcome measures limited meta-analysis. Summary estimates revealed no statistically significant difference in bleeding rates or time within the therapeutic range INR. The highest quality study found no significant difference in primary or secondary outcomes, although there was a trend towards more rapid achievement of a stable dose (14.1 vs. 19.6 days, p = 0.07) in the pharmocogenetic arm.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find sufficient evidence to support the use of pharmacogenetics to guide warfarin therapy. Additional clinical trials are needed to define the optimal approach to use warfarin pharmacogenetics in clinical practice.

Implementation of pharmacogenomics into the clinical practice of therapeutics: issues for the clinician and the laboratorian

Pharmacogenomics promises to improve therapeutic care by providing the right drug and dosage to the appropriate patient. Despite widespread interest in personalized medicine, the implementation of clinical pharmacogenomics has been slow. The major issue for clinicians is the lack of evidence that pharmacogenomic testing improves clinical outcomes and that testing is cost-effective. Only a few randomized clinical trials comparing pharmacogenomic testing with standard protocols have been conducted. The few studies that are available have either been underpowered or demonstrated only modest benefits. Nevertheless, if clinical decisions are made regarding therapeutic selection and dosing, pharmacogenomic testing may be justified. Issues for the clinical laboratories (who are responsible for providing pharmacogenomic services) to consider, include the availability of US FDA-cleared tests, the absence of reimbursement codes, the need for genotyping accuracy and the need to find clinical expertise to interpret laboratory results. From the clinical laboratory perspective, testing can be better implemented when these barriers are resolved or minimized. Clinical pharmacogenomics also offers a new field for translational research and teaching at various levels.

Clinically available pharmacogenomics tests

The development of robust and clinically valuable pharmacogenomic tests has been anticipated to be one of the first tangible results of the Human Genome Project. Despite both obvious and unanticipated obstacles, a number of tests have now become available in various practice settings. Lessons can be learned from examination of these tests, the evidence that has catalyzed their use, their value to prescribers, and their merit as tools for personalizing therapeutics.

Rapid Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism Detection of Cytochrome P450 (CYP2C9) and Vitamin K Epoxide Reductase (VKORC1) Genes for the Warfarin Dose Adjustment by the SMart-Amplification Process Version 2

Background: Polymorphisms of the CYP2C9 (cytochrome P450, family 2, subfamily C, polypeptide 9) gene (CYP2C9*2, CYP2C9*3) and the VKORC1 (vitamin K epoxide reductase complex, subunit 1) gene (−1639G&gt;A) greatly impact the maintenance dose for the drug warfarin. Prescreening patients for their genotypes before prescribing the drug facilitates a faster individualized determination of the proper maintenance dose, minimizing the risk for adverse reaction and reoccurrence of thromboembolic episodes. With current methodologies, therapy can be delayed by several hours to 1 day if genotyping is to determine the loading dose. A simpler and more rapid genotyping method is required.

Methods: We developed a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-detection assay based on the SMart Amplification Process version 2 (SMAP 2) to analyze CYP2C9*2, CYP2C9*3, and VKORC1 −1639G&gt;A polymorphisms. Blood from consenting participants was used directly in a closed-tube real-time assay without DNA purification to obtain results within 1 h after blood collection.

Results: We analyzed 125 blood samples by both SMAP 2 and PCR-RFLP methods. The results showed perfect concordance.

Conclusions: The results validate the accuracy of the SMAP 2 for determination of SNPs critical to personalized warfarin therapy. SMAP 2 offers speed, simplicity of sample preparation, the convenience of isothermal amplification, and assay-design flexibility, which are significant advantages over conventional genotyping technologies. In this example and other clinical scenarios in which genetic testing is required for immediate and better-informed therapeutic decisions, SMAP 2–based diagnostics have key advantages.

Validation of clinical testing for warfarin sensitivity: comparison of CYP2C9-VKORC1 genotyping assays and warfarin-dosing algorithms

Responses to warfarin (Coumadin) anticoagulation therapy are affected by genetic variability in both the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes. Validation of pharmacogenetic testing for warfarin responses includes demonstration of analytical validity of testing platforms and of the clinical validity of testing. We compared four platforms for determining the relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in both CYP2C9 and VKORC1 that are associated with warfarin sensitivity (Third Wave Invader Plus, ParagonDx/Cepheid Smart Cycler, Idaho Technology LightCycler, and AutoGenomics Infiniti). Each method was examined for accuracy, cost, and turnaround time. All genotyping methods demonstrated greater than 95% accuracy for identifying the relevant SNPs (CYP2C9 *2 and *3; VKORC1 -1639 or 1173). The ParagonDx and Idaho Technology assays had the shortest turnaround and hands-on times. The Third Wave assay was readily scalable to higher test volumes but had the longest hands-on time. The AutoGenomics assay interrogated the largest number of SNPs but had the longest turnaround time. Four published warfarin-dosing algorithms (Washington University, UCSF, Louisville, and Newcastle) were compared for accuracy for predicting warfarin dose in a retrospective analysis of a local patient population on long-term, stable warfarin therapy. The predicted doses from both the Washington University and UCSF algorithms demonstrated the best correlation with actual warfarin doses.

A regulatory science perspective on warfarin therapy: a pharmacogenetic opportunity

Warfarin is a challenging drug to accurately dose, both initially and for maintenance, because of its narrow therapeutic range, wide interpatient variability, and long list of factors that can influence dosing. Two million people in the United States are initiated on warfarin therapy annually, and this number is steadily increasing because of the increase in number of eligible patients. Recently, warfarin was reported to be the fourth leading cause of adverse events. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recognizes that the adverse event rate of warfarin can be improved through better initial dosing, because many of the serious adverse events of warfarin occur soon after starting treatment. A substantial number of studies demonstrate that common variants of two genes, VKORC1 and CYP2C9, along with other nongenetic factors, correlate significantly with warfarin dosing. The genotypes of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 alone account for nearly 3 times more of the variability ( approximately 30%) in warfarin dosing than do age, weight, gender, and other clinical factors combined ( approximately 12%). Therefore, the purpose of this report is to review the current recommendations for warfarin therapy that involve genetic testing.

Influence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 on warfarin response during initiation of therapy

BACKGROUND

Although multiple reports have documented the influence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 variants on warfarin dose, risk of over-anticoagulation and hemorrhage, their influence on anticoagulation maintenance and individual proportion of time spent in target INR range (PPTR) is limited. Moreover the potential benefit of genotype-guided dosing implemented after initiation of therapy in a racially diverse population has not been explored. Herein we present the influence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 C1173T on warfarin response during the first 30 days of therapy.

METHODS

Warfarin dose was empirically determined in 250 African Americans 271 European Americans. The influence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 on rate of INR increase, anticoagulation maintenance, risk of over-anticoagulation, and change in dose over 30 days was evaluated after adjustment for socio-demographic, lifestyle and clinical factors. Possession of variant VKORC1 (+/- variant CYP2C9) genotype was associated with a more rapid attainment of target INR and higher frequency of dose adjustments. Patients possessing variant genotypes spent less time in target range. However adjustment for rate of INR increase rendered the association non-significant. European Americans (but not African Americans) possessing variant VKORC1 (+/- variant CYP2C9) genotype had a higher risk of over-anticoagulation. Neither CYP2C9 nor VKORC1 influenced the risk of minor hemorrhage. CYP2C9 and VKORC1 explained 6.3% of the variance in dose change over the first 30 days of therapy demonstrating that the usefulness of genotype-guided dosing may extend beyond first day of therapy.

CONCLUSION

The benefit of genotype-based dose prediction may extend beyond first few days of therapy. Whether genotype-guided dosing will decrease the risk of over-anticoagulation, improve anticoagulation control and most importantly improve outcomes for chronic warfarin users remains to be proven.

Clinical pharmacy consultation for pharmacogenetic testing

The clinical application of pharmacogenetic testing will help to bring personalized medicine into clinical practice. Due to the complex process involved in delivering pharmacogenetic testing, optimal clinical implementation of pharmacogenetic tests will require the coordinated effort of multiple disciplines including medicine, clinical laboratory medicine and clinical pharmacy. This will help to bridge the gap between the basic and laboratory science, and the clinical application of these results. How may clinical pharmacy contribute to the clinical application of pharmacogenetic testing as a member of a multidisciplinary team? In this perspective, we propose a potential new role for pharmacists: as an interpreter of pharmacogenetic test results. Interpreting the results of pharmacogenetic tests, particularly, those intended to guide drug dosing, requires an understanding of pharmacogenetics, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Pharmacists who are knowledgeable in these areas may play an important role in interpretation of the test results.

A genome-wide association study confirms VKORC1, CYP2C9, and CYP4F2 as principal genetic determinants of warfarin dose

We report the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) whose sample size (1,053 Swedish subjects) is sufficiently powered to detect genome-wide significance (p<1.5 x 10(-7)) for polymorphisms that modestly alter therapeutic warfarin dose. The anticoagulant drug warfarin is widely prescribed for reducing the risk of stroke, thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and coronary malfunction. However, Caucasians vary widely (20-fold) in the dose needed for therapeutic anticoagulation, and hence prescribed doses may be too low (risking serious illness) or too high (risking severe bleeding). Prior work established that approximately 30% of the dose variance is explained by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the warfarin drug target VKORC1 and another approximately 12% by two non-synonymous SNPs (*2, *3) in the cytochrome P450 warfarin-metabolizing gene CYP2C9. We initially tested each of 325,997 GWAS SNPs for association with warfarin dose by univariate regression and found the strongest statistical signals (p<10(-78)) at SNPs clustering near VKORC1 and the second lowest p-values (p<10(-31)) emanating from CYP2C9. No other SNPs approached genome-wide significance. To enhance detection of weaker effects, we conducted multiple regression adjusting for known influences on warfarin dose (VKORC1, CYP2C9, age, gender) and identified a single SNP (rs2108622) with genome-wide significance (p = 8.3 x 10(-10)) that alters protein coding of the CYP4F2 gene. We confirmed this result in 588 additional Swedish patients (p<0.0029) and, during our investigation, a second group provided independent confirmation from a scan of warfarin-metabolizing genes. We also thoroughly investigated copy number variations, haplotypes, and imputed SNPs, but found no additional highly significant warfarin associations. We present power analysis of our GWAS that is generalizable to other studies, and conclude we had 80% power to detect genome-wide significance for common causative variants or markers explaining at least 1.5% of dose variance. These GWAS results provide further impetus for conducting large-scale trials assessing patient benefit from genotype-based forecasting of warfarin dose.

Estimation of the warfarin dose with clinical and pharmacogenetic data

BACKGROUND

Genetic variability among patients plays an important role in determining the dose of warfarin that should be used when oral anticoagulation is initiated, but practical methods of using genetic information have not been evaluated in a diverse and large population. We developed and used an algorithm for estimating the appropriate warfarin dose that is based on both clinical and genetic data from a broad population base.

METHODS

Clinical and genetic data from 4043 patients were used to create a dose algorithm that was based on clinical variables only and an algorithm in which genetic information was added to the clinical variables. In a validation cohort of 1009 subjects, we evaluated the potential clinical value of each algorithm by calculating the percentage of patients whose predicted dose of warfarin was within 20% of the actual stable therapeutic dose; we also evaluated other clinically relevant indicators.

RESULTS

In the validation cohort, the pharmacogenetic algorithm accurately identified larger proportions of patients who required 21 mg of warfarin or less per week and of those who required 49 mg or more per week to achieve the target international normalized ratio than did the clinical algorithm (49.4% vs. 33.3%, P<0.001, among patients requiring < or = 21 mg per week; and 24.8% vs. 7.2%, P<0.001, among those requiring > or = 49 mg per week).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a pharmacogenetic algorithm for estimating the appropriate initial dose of warfarin produces recommendations that are significantly closer to the required stable therapeutic dose than those derived from a clinical algorithm or a fixed-dose approach. The greatest benefits were observed in the 46.2% of the population that required 21 mg or less of warfarin per week or 49 mg or more per week for therapeutic anticoagulation.