Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants

BACKGROUND

As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive.

METHODS

Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period.

RESULTS

A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25-69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak

The role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission poses challenges for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Study of asymptomatic transmission and implications for surveillance and disease burden are ongoing, but there has been little study of the implications of asymptomatic transmission on dynamics of disease. We use a mathematical framework to evaluate expected effects of asymptomatic transmission on the basic reproduction number R 0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number which do not explicitly account for asymptomatic cases may be systematically biased. Specifically, if asymptomatic cases have a shorter generation interval than symptomatic cases, R 0 will be over-estimated, and if they have a longer generation interval, R 0 will be under-estimated. Estimates of the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential phase also depend on asymptomatic generation intervals. Our analysis shows that understanding the temporal course of asymptomatic transmission can be important for assessing the importance of this route of transmission, and for disease dynamics. This provides an additional motivation for investigating both the importance and relative duration of asymptomatic transmission.

The Relationship between the Migrant Population's Migration Network and the Risk of COVID-19 Transmission in China-Empirical Analysis and Prediction in Prefecture-Level Cities

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China has attracted wide attention from all over the world. The impact of COVID-19 has been significant, raising concerns regarding public health risks in China and worldwide. Migration may be the primary reason for the long-distance transmission of the disease. In this study, the following analyses were performed. (1) Using the data from the China migrant population survey in 2017 (Sample size = 432,907), a matrix of the residence-birthplace (R-B matrix) of migrant populations is constructed. The matrix was used to analyze the confirmed cases of COVID-19 at Prefecture-level Cities from February 1-15, 2020 after the outbreak in Wuhan, by calculating the probability of influx or outflow migration. We obtain a satisfactory regression analysis result (R2 = 0.826-0.887, N = 330). (2) We use this R-B matrix to simulate an outbreak scenario in 22 immigrant cities in China, and propose risk prevention measures after the outbreak. If similar scenarios occur in the cities of Wenzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, or Shenzhen, the disease transmission will be wider. (3) We also use a matrix to determine that cities in Henan province, Anhui province, and Municipalities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing) in China will have a high risk level of disease carriers after a similar emerging epidemic outbreak scenario due to a high influx or outflow of migrant populations.

Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GISE) position paper for Cath lab-specific preparedness recommendations for healthcare providers in case of suspected, probable or confirmed cases of COVID-19

COVID‐19 pandemic raised the issue to guarantee the proper level of care to patients with acute cardiovascular diseases and concomitant suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 and, in the meantime safety and protection of healthcare providers. The aim of this position paper is to provide standards to healthcare facilities and healthcare providers on infection prevention and control measures during the management of suspected and confirmed cases of 2019‐nCoV infection accessing in cath‐lab. The document represents the view of the Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GISE), and it is based on recommendations from the main World and European Health Organizations (WHO, and ECDC) as well as from the Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI).

Perioperative Considerations in Urgent Surgical Care of Suspected and Confirmed COVID-19 Orthopaedic Patients: Operating Room Protocols and Recommendations in the Current COVID-19 Pandemic

By April 7, 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was responsible for 1,383,436 confirmed cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), involving 209 countries around the world; 378,881 cases have been confirmed in the United States. During this pandemic, the urgent surgical requirements will not stop. As an example, the most recent Centers of Disease Control and Prevention reports estimate that there are 2.8 million trauma patients hospitalized in the United States. These data illustrate an increase in the likelihood of encountering urgent surgical patients with either clinically suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in the near future. Preparation for a pandemic involves considering the different levels in the hierarchy of controls and the different phases of the pandemic. Apart from the fact that this pandemic certainly involves many important health, economic, and community ramifications, it also requires several initiatives to mandate what measures are most appropriate to prepare for mitigating the occupational risks. This article provides evidence-based recommendations and measures for the appropriate personal protective equipment for different clinical and surgical activities in various settings. To reduce the occupational risk in treating suspected or confirmed COVID-19 urgent orthopaedic patients, recommended precautions and preventive actions (triage area, emergency department consultation room, induction room, operating room, and recovery room) are reviewed.

[Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): update for anesthesiologists and intensivists March 2020]

The current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has reached Germany. The majority of people infected present with mild disease, but there are severe cases that need intensive care. Unlike other acute infectious diseases progressing to sepsis, the severe courses of COVID19 seemingly show prolonged progression from onset of first symptoms to life-threatening deterioration of (primarily) lung function. Diagnosis relies on PCR using specimens from the respiratory tract. Severe ARDS reflects the hallmark of a critical course of the disease. Preventing nosocomial infections (primarily by correct use of personal protective equipment) and maintenance of hospitals' operational capability are of utmost importance. Departments of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and emergency medicine will envisage major challenges.

Clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 in 11 patients after thoracic surgery and challenges in diagnosis

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate the clinical course and difficulties in early diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients after thoracic surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical course of the first 11 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 after thoracic surgery in early January 2020. Postoperative clinical, laboratory, and radiologic records and the time line of clinical course were summarized. Potential prognostic factors were evaluated.

RESULTS

In the 11 confirmed cases (3 female, 8 male), median days from symptom onset to case detection was 8. Insidious symptom onset and misinterpreted postoperative changes on chest computed tomography (CT) resulted in delay in diagnosis. There were 3 fatalities due to respiratory failure, whereas 4 severe and 4 mild cases recovered and were discharged. All patients had once experienced leukocytosis and eosinopenia. Remittent fever and resected lung segments ≥5 were associated with fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

The case fatality rate of postsurgical patients subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19 was 27.3%. Insidious symptom onset, postoperative leukocytosis with lymphopenia, and postsurgical CT changes overshadowed the early signs of viral pneumonia. Dynamic symptom monitoring, serial chest CTs, and tests for viral RNA and serum antibody improve the chance for prompt detection of COVID-19. Consideration should be given to preadmission and preoperative screening and strict contact isolation during the postoperative period.

Practical indications for the prevention and management of SARS-CoV-2 in ambulatory dialysis patients: lessons from the first phase of the epidemics in Lombardy

Confronting the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has allowed us to appreciate how efficiently highly-resourced settings can respond to crises. However even such settings are not prepared to deal with the situation, and lessons are only slowly being learnt. There is still an urgent need to accelerate protocols that lead to the implementation of rapid point-of-care diagnostic testing and effective antiviral therapies. In some high-risk populations, such as dialysis patients, where several individuals are treated at the same time in a limited space and overcrowded areas, our objective must be to ensure protection to patients, the healthcare team and the dialysis ward. The difficult Italian experience may help other countries to face the challenges. The experience of the Lombardy underlines the need for gathering and sharing our data to increase our knowledge and support common, initially experience-based, and as soon as possible evidence-based position to face this overwhelming crisis.

Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic

The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has rapidly spread in early 2020, causing tens of thousands of deaths, over a million cases and widespread socioeconomic disruption. With no vaccine available and numerous national healthcare systems reaching or exceeding capacity, interventions to limit transmission are urgently needed. While there is broad agreement that travel restrictions and closure of non-essential businesses and schools are beneficial in limiting local and regional spread, and such measures have been adopted in countries around the world, recommendations around the use of face masks for the general population are less consistent internationally. In this study, we examined the role of face masks in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in the general population, using epidemic models to estimate the total reduction of infections and deaths under various scenarios. In particular, we examined the optimal deployment of face masks when resources are limited. We found that face masks, even with a limited protective effect, can reduce infections and deaths, and can delay the peak time of the epidemic. We consistently found that a random distribution of masks in the population was a suboptimal strategy when resources were limited. Prioritizing coverage among the elderly was more beneficial, while allocating a proportion of available resources for diagnosed infected cases provided further mitigation under a range of scenarios. In summary, face mask use, particularly for a pathogen with relatively common asymptomatic carriage, can effectively provide some mitigation of transmission, while balancing provision between vulnerable healthy persons and symptomatic persons can optimize mitigation efforts when resources are limited.

Guidelines for dental care provision during the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak was declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020. Several dental care facilities in affected countries have been completely closed or have been only providing minimal treatment for emergency cases. However, several facilities in some affected countries are still providing regular dental treatment. This can in part be a result of the lack of universal protocol or guidelines regulating the dental care provision during such a pandemic. This lack of guidelines can on one hand increase the nosocomial COVID-19 spread through dental health care facilities, and on the other hand deprive patients’ in need of the required urgent dental care. Moreover, ceasing dental care provision during such a period will incense the burden on hospitals emergency departments already struggle with the pandemic.

This work aimed to develop guidelines for dental patients’ management during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Guidelines for dental care provision during the COVID-19 pandemic were developed after considering the nature of COVID-19 pandemic, and were based on grouping the patients according to condition and need, and considering the procedures according to risk and benefit.

It is hoped that the guidelines proposed in this work will help in the management of dental care around the world during and after this COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 Outbreak: An Overview

BACKGROUND

In late December 2019, Chinese health authorities reported an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown origin in Wuhan, Hubei Province.

SUMMARY

A few days later, the genome of a novel coronavirus was released (http://viro-logical.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319; Wuhan-Hu-1, GenBank accession No. MN908947) and made publicly available to the scientific community. This novel coronavirus was provisionally named 2019-nCoV, now SARS-CoV-2 according to the Coronavirus Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the Coronaviridae family, Betacoronavirus genus, subgenus Sarbecovirus. Since its discovery, the virus has spread globally, causing thousands of deaths and having an enormous impact on our health systems and economies. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge about the epidemiology, phylogenesis, homology modeling, and molecular diagnostics of SARS-CoV-2. Key Messages: Phylogenetic analysis is essential to understand viral evolution, whereas homology modeling is important for vaccine strategies and therapies. Highly sensitive and specific diagnostic assays are key to case identification, contact tracing, identification of the animal source, and implementation of control measures.

COVID-19 and the Heart

Infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome novel coronavirus produces a clinical syndrome known as 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When severe, COVID-19 is a systemic illness characterized by hyperinflammation, cytokine storm, and elevations of cardiac injury biomarkers. Here, we review what is known about the pathophysiology of COVID-19, its cardiovascular manifestations, and emerging therapeutic prospects. In this rapidly moving field, this review was comprehensive as of April 3, 2020.

In Vitro Diagnostic Assays for COVID-19: Recent Advances and Emerging Trends

There have been tremendous advances in in vitro diagnostic (IVD) assays for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The main IVD assays used for COVID-19 employ real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) that takes a few hours. But the assay duration has been shortened to 45 min by Cepheid. Of interest is the point-of-care (POC) molecular assay by Abbott that decreased the assay duration to just 5 min. Most molecular tests have been approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under emergency use authorization (EUA) and are Conformité Européenne (CE) marked. A wide range of serology immunoassays (IAs) have also been developed that complement the molecular assays for the diagnosis of COVID-19. The most prominent IAs are automated chemiluminescent IA (CLIA), manual ELISA, and rapid lateral flow IA (LFIA), which detect the immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) produced in persons in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The ongoing research efforts and advances in complementary technologies will pave the way to new POC IVD assays in the coming months. However, the performance of IVD assays needs to be critically evaluated before they are employed for the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19.

Epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus in Jiangsu Province, China after wartime control measures: A population-level retrospective study

Background

A novel coronavirus emerged in China in December 2019, and human-to-human transmission was previously identified. This study aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics in Jiangsu Province and assess whether so-called wartime control measures changed the trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the province.

Methods

Epidemiological data were obtained from the websites of China's Bureau of Health and the People's Government of Jiangsu Province and informal online sources from January 22 to February 20, 2020.

Results

The cumulative number of patients in Jiangsu Province (over 79 million people) was 613. The number of daily confirmed new cases reached the inflection point on January 31 with the maximum of 39 cases. The temporal number of patients peaked from January 29 to February 9. The proportion of confirmed cases who were residents or travelers to Hubei Province was 100.0%–58.8% before January 31 and then gradually declined. The proportion of close contacts increased gradually from January 27 to February 17. The geographical distribution of COVID-2019 cases showed that all 13 cites reported confirmed new cases after only five days of the first confirmed new case in Suzhou. The cases were concentrated in Nanjing, Suzhou, and Xuzhou with a high population density (over eight million people). The epidemiological features of COVID-2019 cases in Wuxi, Jiangsu showed that seven confirmed cases were tourists from others areas beyond Hubei Province. The longest incubation period of COVID-2019 was 19 days based on the onset of laboratory-confirmed cases.

Conclusion

The number of daily confirmed new cases in Jiangsu Province peaked around January 31 and then declined. This result emphasized that wartime control measures, such as putting cities on lockdown to limit population mobility in Jiangsu Province, resulted in dramatic reductions in COVID-19 cases.

Evidence from two cases of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2: Are 14 days of isolation sufficient?

Among 78 laboratory-confirmed cases, we found two asymptomatic infections. One patient was discharged within 14 days after treatment. Another patient was discharged 25 days after treatment, and his RT-PCR test was still positive on the 15th day. We found that there may be virus carriers in the asymptomatic population with an epidemiological contact history. After 14 days of isolation, those with asymptomatic infection may still carry the virus, which means a risk of transmission, presenting a new challenge for the management of home isolation.

Thoughts on COVID-19 and autoimmune diseases

Over the 2 months since coronavirus first appeared in China, cases have emerged on every continent, and it is clear that patients with autoimmune diseases might also be affected. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious viral illness with a mortality rate approaching 2%. Here we discuss the challenges that patients with autoimmune diseases might face and the information on using immunomodulatory therapies like chloroquine, tocilizumab and baricitinib to quench the cytokine storm in patients with very severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19 Outbreak

Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document}R0 was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document}R0 were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.

Chest CT Findings in Cases from the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

PURPOSE

To evaluate the chest CT findings in an environmentally homogeneous cohort from the cruise ship Diamond Princess with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study comprised 104 cases (mean age, 62 years ± 16 [standard deviation], range, 25-93 years) with COVID-19 confirmed with reverse-transcription polymerase change reaction findings. CT images were reviewed, and the CT severity score was calculated for each lobe and the entire lung. CT findings were compared between asymptomatic and symptomatic cases.

RESULTS

Of 104 cases, 76 (73%) were asymptomatic, 41 (54%) of which had lung opacities on CT. Twenty-eight (27%) cases were symptomatic, 22 (79%) of which had abnormal CT findings. Symptomatic cases showed lung opacities and airway abnormalities on CT more frequently than asymptomatic cases [lung opacity; 22 (79%) vs 41 (54%), airway abnormalities; 14 (50%) vs 15 (20%)]. Asymptomatic cases showed more ground-glass opacity (GGO) over consolidation (83%), while symptomatic cases more frequently showed consolidation over GGO (41%). The CT severity score was higher in symptomatic cases than asymptomatic cases, particularly in the lower lobes [symptomatic vs asymptomatic cases; right lower lobe: 2 ± 1 (0-4) vs 1 ± 1 (0-4); left lower lobe: 2 ± 1 (0-4) vs 1 ± 1 (0-3); total score: 7 ± 5 (1-17) vs 4 ± 2 (1-11)].

CONCLUSION

This study documented a high incidence of subclinical CT changes in cases with COVID-19. Compared with symptomatic cases, asymptomatic cases showed more GGO over consolidation and milder extension of disease on CT.An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on April 8, 2020.© RSNA, 2020.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients undergoing surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19 infection

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly worldwide. In the early stage, we encountered a small but meaningful number of patients who were unintentionally scheduled for elective surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19. We intended to describe their clinical characteristics and outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 34 patients underwent elective surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19 at Renmin Hospital, Zhongnan Hospital, Tongji Hospital and Central Hospital in Wuhan, from January 1 to February 5, 2020.

FINDINGS

Of the 34 operative patients, the median age was 55 years (IQR, 43-63), and 20 (58·8%) patients were women. All patients developed COVID-19 pneumonia shortly after surgery with abnormal findings on chest computed tomographic scans. Common symptoms included fever (31 [91·2%]), fatigue (25 [73·5%]) and dry cough (18 [52·9%]). 15 (44·1%) patients required admission to intensive care unit (ICU) during disease progression, and 7 patients (20·5%) died after admission to ICU. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients were older, were more likely to have underlying comorbidities, underwent more difficult surgeries, as well as more severe laboratory abnormalities (eg, hyperleukocytemia, lymphopenia). The most common complications in non-survivors included ARDS, shock, arrhythmia and acute cardiac injury.

INTERPRETATION

In this retrospective cohort study of 34 operative patients with confirmed COVID-19, 15 (44·1%) patients needed ICU care, and the mortality rate was 20·5%.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Guidance for cardiac electrophysiology during the COVID-19 pandemic from the Heart Rhythm Society COVID-19 Task Force; Electrophysiology Section of the American College of Cardiology; and the Electrocardiography and Arrhythmias Committee of the Council on Clinical Cardiology, American Heart Association

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that is wreaking havoc on the health and economy of much of human civilization. Electrophysiologists have been impacted personally and professionally by this global catastrophe. In this joint article from representatives of the Heart Rhythm Society, the American College of Cardiology, and the American Heart Association, we identify the potential risks of exposure to patients, allied healthcare staff, industry representatives, and hospital administrators. We also describe the impact of COVID-19 on cardiac arrhythmias and methods of triage based on acuity and patient comorbidities. We provide guidance for managing invasive and noninvasive electrophysiology procedures, clinic visits, and cardiac device interrogations. In addition, we discuss resource conservation and the role of telemedicine in remote patient care along with management strategies for affected patients.

Critical Care for COVID-19 Affected Patients: Position Statement of the Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine

The global pandemic involving severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) has stretched the limits of science. Ever since it emerged from the Wuhan province in China, it has spread across the world and has been fatal to about 4% of the victims. This position statement of the Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine represents the collective opinion of the experts chosen by the society.

HOW TO CITE THIS ARTICLE

Mehta Y, Chaudhry D, Abraham OC, Chacko J, Divatia J, Jagiasi B, et al. Critical Care for COVID-19 Affected Patients: Position Statement of the Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(4):222-241.

Ensuring Business Continuity of Musculoskeletal Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Experience of a Tertiary Orthopaedic Surgery Department in Singapore

On February 8, 2020, Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level to Orange, indicating that coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) was a severe disease with high human transmissibility. Using lessons learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, the orthopaedic surgery department at Singapore General Hospital, a tertiary-level referral center, was prepared to handle this pandemic through business-continuity planning. The business that we are referring to is the "business" of orthopaedic surgery, encompassing clinical care, education, research, and administration. There is a lack of literature detailing business-continuity plans of surgical departments during pandemics, with new guidelines being developed. A large proportion of orthopaedic work, such as cases of fracture and infection, cannot be postponed. Even elective surgeries cannot be postponed indefinitely as it could result in detriment to the quality of life of patients. The aim of this article is to detail the business-continuity plans at our institution that allowed the delivery of essential musculoskeletal care through personnel segregation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies to ensure the provision of timely medical intelligence, the reduction of nonessential ambulatory visits and surgical procedures, ensuring the safety and morale of staff, and continuing education and research efforts were paramount. As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, our posture needs to constantly evolve to meet new challenges that may come our way. Our existing business-continuity plan is not perfect and may not be applicable to smaller hospitals. There is conflict between envisioned normalcy, remaining economically viable as an orthopaedic department, and fulfilling training requirements, and educating the next generation of orthopaedic surgeons on the one hand and the need for segregation, workload reduction, virtual education, and social distancing on the other. Orthopaedic surgeons need to strike a balance between business continuity and adopting sustainable precautions against COVID-19. We hope that our experience will aid other orthopaedic surgery departments in adapting to this new norm, protecting their staff and patients, managing staff morale, and allowing the continuation of musculoskeletal care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of COVID-19; a Narrative Review

There are significant misconceptions and many obstacles in the way of illuminating the epidemiological and clinical aspects of COVID-19 as a new emerging epidemic. In addition, usefulness of some evidence published in the context of the recent epidemic for decision making in clinic as well as public health is questionable. However, misinterpreting or ignoring strong evidence in clinical practice and public health probably results in less effective and somehow more harmful decisions for individuals as well as subgroups in general populations of countries in the initial stages of this epidemic. Accordingly, our narrative review appraised epidemiological and clinical aspects of the disease including genetic diversity of coronavirus genus, mode of transmission, incubation period, infectivity, pathogenicity, virulence, immunogenicity, diagnosis, surveillance, clinical case management and also successful measures for preventing its spread in some communities.

SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 in older adults: what we may expect regarding pathogenesis, immune responses, and outcomes

SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of the coronavirus infectious disease-19 (COVID-19), is taking the globe by storm, approaching 500,000 confirmed cases and over 21,000 deaths as of March 25, 2020. While under control in some affected Asian countries (Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam), the virus demonstrated an exponential phase of infectivity in several large countries (China in late January and February and many European countries and the USA in March), with cases exploding by 30-50,000/day in the third and fourth weeks of March, 2020. SARS-CoV-2 has proven to be particularly deadly to older adults and those with certain underlying medical conditions, many of whom are of advanced age. Here, we briefly review the virus, its structure and evolution, epidemiology and pathogenesis, immunogenicity and immune, and clinical response in older adults, using available knowledge on SARS-CoV-2 and its highly pathogenic relatives MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-1. We conclude by discussing clinical and basic science approaches to protect older adults against this disease.

Extension of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Chest CT and Implications for Chest Radiographic Interpretation

PURPOSE

To study the extent of pulmonary involvement in coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) with quantitative CT and to assess the impact of disease burden on opacity visibility on chest radiographs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 20 pairs of CT scans and same-day chest radiographs from 17 patients with COVID-19, along with 20 chest radiographs of controls. All pulmonary opacities were semiautomatically segmented on CT images, producing an anteroposterior projection image to match the corresponding frontal chest radiograph. The quantitative CT lung opacification mass (QCTmass) was defined as (opacity attenuation value + 1000 HU)/1000 × 1.065 (g/mL) × combined volume (cm3) of the individual opacities. Eight thoracic radiologists reviewed the 40 radiographs, and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for the detection of lung opacities. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors affecting opacity visibility on chest radiographs.

RESULTS

The mean QCTmass per patient was 72.4 g ± 120.8 (range, 0.7-420.7 g), and opacities occupied 3.2% ± 5.8 (range, 0.1%-19.8%) and 13.9% ± 18.0 (range, 0.5%-57.8%) of the lung area on the CT images and projected images, respectively. The radiographs had a median sensitivity of 25% and specificity of 90% among radiologists. Nineteen of 186 opacities were visible on chest radiographs, and a median area of 55.8% of the projected images was identifiable on radiographs. Logistic regression analysis showed that QCTmass (P < .001) and combined opacity volume (P < .001) significantly affected opacity visibility on radiographs.

CONCLUSION

QCTmass varied among patients with COVID-19. Chest radiographs had high specificity for detecting lung opacities in COVID-19 but a low sensitivity. QCTmass and combined opacity volume were significant determinants of opacity visibility on radiographs.Earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on April 6, 2020 and December 14, 2020.Supplemental material is available for this article.© RSNA, 2020.

Epidemiology, virology, and clinical features of severe acute respiratory syndrome -coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus Disease-19)

A cluster of severe pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan City, Hubei province in China emerged in December 2019. A novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was isolated from lower respiratory tract sample as the causative agent. The current outbreak of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is termed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). COVID-19 rapidly spread into at least 114 countries and killed more than 4,000 people by March 11 2020. WHO officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. There have been 2 novel coronavirus outbreaks in the past 2 decades. The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003 caused by SARS-CoV had a case fatality rate of around 10% (8,098 confirmed cases and 774 deaths), while Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) caused by MERSCoV killed 861 people out of a total 2,502 confirmed cases between 2012 and 2019. The purpose of this review is to summarize known-to-date information about SARS-CoV-2, transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and clinical features.

Knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in Chinese psychiatric hospitals regarding COVID-19

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus COVID-19 a pandemic. There are patients in psychiatric hospitals in China who have been infected with COVID-19, however, the knowledge and attitudes of psychiatric hospital staff towards infectious diseases and their willingness to work during the COVID-19 outbreak has not yet been investigated. This study was performed to assess the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in two Chinese mental health centers during the COVID-19 outbreak. We included 141 psychiatrists and 170 psychiatric nurses in the study. We found that during the COVID-19 epidemic, 89.51% of the medical staff of the psychiatric hospitals studied had extensive knowledge of COVID-19, and 64.63% of them received the relevant training in hospitals. Furthermore, about 77.17% of participants expressed a willingness to care for psychiatric patients suffering from COVID-19 virus infection. Independent predictors of willingness to care for patients included advanced training and experience of caring for patients with COVID-19. In conclusion, this study suggests that increased attention should be paid to the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff at psychiatric hospitals during the COVID-19 outbreak.

A Review of the Strategies and Studies on the Prevention and Control of the New Coronavirus in Workplaces

Workplaces are susceptible places for exposure to the new coronavirus (Covid-19) infection due to gathering of many people. Hence, different instructions have been promoted by international organizations regarding high-risk employees and the necessity of implementing health policies to prevent exposure and infection in the workplace. Here we reviewed the required strategies to prevent and control COVID-19 in the workplace. In conclusion, considering the fast spreading and growing prevalence of the new corona virus disease in the world over, all managers, employers, and business owners should receive the necessary information and training on prevention and control strategies based on scientific guidelines and standards.

The 2019-2020 Novel Coronavirus (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) Pandemic: A Joint American College of Academic International Medicine-World Academic Council of Emergency Medicine Multidisciplinary COVID-19 Working Group Consensus Paper

What started as a cluster of patients with a mysterious respiratory illness in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, was later determined to be coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel Betacoronavirus, was subsequently isolated as the causative agent. SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted by respiratory droplets and fomites and presents clinically with fever, fatigue, myalgias, conjunctivitis, anosmia, dysgeusia, sore throat, nasal congestion, cough, dyspnea, nausea, vomiting, and/or diarrhea. In most critical cases, symptoms can escalate into acute respiratory distress syndrome accompanied by a runaway inflammatory cytokine response and multiorgan failure. As of this article's publication date, COVID-19 has spread to approximately 200 countries and territories, with over 4.3 million infections and more than 290,000 deaths as it has escalated into a global pandemic. Public health concerns mount as the situation evolves with an increasing number of infection hotspots around the globe. New information about the virus is emerging just as rapidly. This has led to the prompt development of clinical patient risk stratification tools to aid in determining the need for testing, isolation, monitoring, ventilator support, and disposition. COVID-19 spread is rapid, including imported cases in travelers, cases among close contacts of known infected individuals, and community-acquired cases without a readily identifiable source of infection. Critical shortages of personal protective equipment and ventilators are compounding the stress on overburdened healthcare systems. The continued challenges of social distancing, containment, isolation, and surge capacity in already stressed hospitals, clinics, and emergency departments have led to a swell in technologically-assisted care delivery strategies, such as telemedicine and web-based triage. As the race to develop an effective vaccine intensifies, several clinical trials of antivirals and immune modulators are underway, though no reliable COVID-19-specific therapeutics (inclusive of some potentially effective single and multi-drug regimens) have been identified as of yet. With many nations and regions declaring a state of emergency, unprecedented quarantine, social distancing, and border closing efforts are underway. Implementation of social and physical isolation measures has caused sudden and profound economic hardship, with marked decreases in global trade and local small business activity alike, and full ramifications likely yet to be felt. Current state-of-science, mitigation strategies, possible therapies, ethical considerations for healthcare workers and policymakers, as well as lessons learned for this evolving global threat and the eventual return to a "new normal" are discussed in this article.

Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of COVID-19; a Narrative Review

There are significant misconceptions and many obstacles in the way of illuminating the epidemiological and clinical aspects of COVID-19 as a new emerging epidemic. In addition, usefulness of some evidence published in the context of the recent epidemic for decision making in clinic as well as public health is questionable. However, misinterpreting or ignoring strong evidence in clinical practice and public health probably results in less effective and somehow more harmful decisions for individuals as well as subgroups in general populations of countries in the initial stages of this epidemic. Accordingly, our narrative review appraised epidemiological and clinical aspects of the disease including genetic diversity of coronavirus genus, mode of transmission, incubation period, infectivity, pathogenicity, virulence, immunogenicity, diagnosis, surveillance, clinical case management and also successful measures for preventing its spread in some communities.

The Time for Universal Masking of the Public for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Is Now

In this perspective, we recommend universal masking of the US public during coronavirus disease 2019 due to the high contagiousness of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), viral shedding of viable SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic individuals, and the likely contribution of masking to core distancing public health strategies for curbing transmission.

The clinical dynamics of 18 cases of COVID-19 outside of Wuhan, China

Since an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan and related regions in Hubei province, an increasing number of exported cases have been confirmed in other provinces in China and in multiple countries around the world with substantial morbidity and mortality [1–4]. The WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern considering rapid increases in numbers of confirmed cases in China and additional countries. As of February 22, 2020, a total of 12 938 patients had been confirmed outside of Wuhan and related regions in Hubei province of China [1]. However, there is limited information about COVID-19 outside of Wuhan [5], and no study has reported the time to RT-PCR conversion and radiological changes after treatment.

The novel coronavirus can be transmitted from person to person with infection ranging from mild disease to severe pneumonia and radiological abnormalities on chest CT for most patients improved after RT-PCR conversion.

The contribution of pre-symptomatic infection to the transmission dynamics of COVID-2019

Background: Pre-symptomatic transmission can be a key determinant of the effectiveness of containment and mitigation strategies for infectious diseases, particularly if interventions rely on syndromic case finding. For COVID-19, infections in the absence of apparent symptoms have been reported frequently alongside circumstantial evidence for asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission. We estimated the potential contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to COVID-19 transmission. Methods: Using the probability for symptom onset on a given day inferred from the incubation period, we attributed the serial interval reported from Shenzen, China, into likely pre-symptomatic and symptomatic transmission. We used the serial interval derived for cases isolated more than 6 days after symptom onset as the no active case finding scenario and the unrestricted serial interval as the active case finding scenario. We reported the estimate assuming no correlation between the incubation period and the serial interval alongside a range indicating alternative assumptions of positive and negative correlation. Results: We estimated that 23% (range accounting for correlation: 12 - 28%) of transmissions in Shenzen may have originated from pre-symptomatic infections. Through accelerated case isolation following symptom onset, this percentage increased to 46% (21 - 46%), implying that about 35% of secondary infections among symptomatic cases have been prevented. These results were robust to using reported incubation periods and serial intervals from other settings. Conclusions: Pre-symptomatic transmission may be essential to consider for containment and mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

A sentinel COVID-19 case in Houston, Texas: Informing frontline emergency department screening and preparedness

In December 2019, a cluster of severe pneumonia cases of unknown cause was reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. A novel strain of coronavirus belonging to the same family of viruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) was identified. In February 2020, cases began being identified in the United States. We describe a sentinel COVID-19 patient in Houston, Texas, who first presented on March 1, 2020. The patient did not meet criteria for a Person Under Investigation (PUI) as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) at the time. This case has broad implications for emergency department screening and preparedness for COVID-19 and other future infectious diseases.

Evaluation of Remote Monitoring Device for Monitoring Vital Parameters against Reference Standard: A Diagnostic Validation Study for COVID-19 Preparedness

CONTEXT

Vital parameters including blood oxygen level, respiratory rate, pulse rate, and body temperature are crucial for triaging patients to appropriate medical care. Advances in remote health monitoring system and wearable health devices have created a new horizon for delivery of efficient health care from a distance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This diagnostic validation study included patients attending the outpatient department of the institute. The accuracy of device under study was compared against the gold standard patient monitoring systems used in intensive care units.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The statistical analysis involved computation of intraclass correlation coefficient. Bland-Altman graphs with limits of agreement were plotted to assess agreement between methods. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 200 patients, including 152 males and 48 females in the age range of 2-80 years, formed the study group. A strong correlation (intraclass correlation coefficient; r > 0.9) was noted between the two devices for all the investigated parameters with significant P value (<0.01). Bland-Altman plot drawn for each vital parameter revealed observations in agreement from both the devices.

CONCLUSION

The wearable device can be reliably used for remote health monitoring. Its regulated use can help mitigate the scarcity of hospital beds and reduce exposure to health-care workers and demand of personal protection equipment.

COVID-19 and Iranian Medical Students; A Survey on Their Related-Knowledge, Preventive Behaviors and Risk Perception

BACKGROUND

Since December 2019, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began its journey around the world. Medical students, as frontline healthcare workers, are more susceptible to be infected by the virus. The aim of this study was to assess COVID-19 related knowledge, self-reported preventive behaviors and risk perception among Iranian medical students within the first week after the onset of the outbreak in Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted from 26th to 28th of February, 2020. Participants were Iranian medical students (5th-7th year) whose knowledge, preventive behaviors and risk perceptions of COVID-19 were assessed using an online questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of 26 questions including 15 items about COVID-19 related knowledge, 9 items regarding preventive measures and 2 items about COVID-19 risk perception. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were shown to be satisfactory.

RESULTS

A total of 240 medical students completed the questionnaire. The mean age of participants was 23.67 years. The average of correct answers of knowledge was 86.96%; and 79.60% had high level of related knowledge. The average rate of practicing preventive behaviors was 94.47%; and 94.2% had high level of performance in preventive behaviors. The cumulative score of risk perception was 4.08 out of 8 which was in moderate range. Risk perception was significantly different between stagers and interns and between those being trained in emergency room (ER) and non-ER wards. There was a significant negative correlation between preventive behaviors and risk perception.

CONCLUSION

We found a high level of COVID-19 related knowledge and self-reported preventive behaviors and moderate risk perception among Iranian medical students.

Counting Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Case Definitions, Screened Populations and Testing Techniques Matter

While counting cases of disease appears straightforward, there are issues to consider when enumerating disease counts during an epidemic. For example, for Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19), how is a case defined? Hubei province in China changed its case definition twice in a fortnight—from laboratory-confirmed cases to clinically confirmed cases without laboratory tests, and back to laboratory-confirmed cases. This caused confusion in the reported number of cases. If a confirmed case requires laboratory testing, what is the population who are laboratory-tested? Due to limited laboratory testing capacity in the early phase of an emerging epidemic, only “suspected cases” are laboratory-tested in most countries. This will result in underdiagnosis of confirmed cases and also raises the question: how is a “suspect case” defined? With the passage of time and increased capability to perform laboratory tests, more people can be screened and the number of confirmed cases will increase. What are the technical considerations of laboratory testing? This includes specimen collection (variable collection methods), samples collected (upper or lower respiratory tract biospecimens), time of collection in relation to course of disease, different laboratory test methods and kits (not all of which may be standardised or approved by authorities such as the Food and Drug Administration). Are approved laboratory facilities and trained manpower available, and how are test results interpreted and false-negatives excluded? These issues will affect the accuracy of disease counts, which in turn will have implications on how we mount an appropriate response to the outbreak. Key words: Diagnosis, Laboratory testing, Outbreak, Pandemic, Screening

A Systematic Review of COVID-19 Epidemiology Based on Current Evidence

As the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread rapidly across the globe, we aimed to identify and summarize the existing evidence on epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and the effectiveness of control measures to inform policymakers and leaders in formulating management guidelines, and to provide directions for future research. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature and preprints on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak following predefined eligibility criteria. Of 317 research articles generated from our initial search on PubMed and preprint archives on 21 February 2020, 41 met our inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Current evidence suggests that it takes about 3-7 days for the epidemic to double in size. Of 21 estimates for the basic reproduction number ranging from 1.9 to 6.5, 13 were between 2.0 and 3.0. The incubation period was estimated to be 4-6 days, whereas the serial interval was estimated to be 4-8 days. Though the true case fatality risk is yet unknown, current model-based estimates ranged from 0.3% to 1.4% for outside China. There is an urgent need for rigorous research focusing on the mitigation efforts to minimize the impact on society.

Household transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 in the time of unprecedented travel lockdown in China

Importance

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and then spread globally. Limited information is available for characterizing epidemiological features and transmission patterns in the regions outside of Hubei Province. Detailed data on transmission at the individual level could be an asset to understand the transmission mechanisms and respective patterns in different settings.

Objective

To reconstruct infection events and transmission clusters of SARS-CoV-2 for estimating epidemiological characteristics at household and non-household settings, including super-spreading events, serial intervals, age- and gender-stratified risks of infection in China outside of Hubei Province.

Design Setting and Participants

9,120 confirmed cases reported online by 264 Chinese urban Health Commissions in 27 provinces from January 20 to February 19, 2020. A line-list database is established with detailed information on demographic, social and epidemiological characteristics. The infection events are categorized into the household and non-household settings.

Exposures

Confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Information about demographic characteristics, social relationships, travel history, timelines of potential exposure, symptom onset, confirmation, and hospitalization were extracted from online public reports. 1,407 infection events formed 643 transmission clusters were reconstructed.

Results

In total 34 primary cases were identified as super spreaders, and 5 household super-spreading events were observed. The mean serial interval is estimated to be 4.95 days (standard deviation: 5.24 days) and 5.19 days (standard deviation: 5.28 days) for households and non-household transmissions, respectively. The risk of being infected outside of households is higher for age groups between 18 and 64 years, whereas the hazard of being infected within households is higher for age groups of young (<18) and elderly (>65) people.

Conclusions and Relevance

The identification of super-spreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of age between 18 and 64 indicate a significant barrier to the case identification and management, which calls for intensive non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. cancellation of public gathering, limited access of public services) as the potential mitigation strategies.