Cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making: a critical review using a systematic search strategy

Guiding practitioners through end of life care for people with dementia: The use of heuristics

Background

End of life care (EOLC) for people with dementia can present a multitude of challenges and difficult decisions for practitioners. These challenges may include assessment and management of difficulties with eating and swallowing, responding to agitation, treating pain, and managing recurrent infections. Practitioners sometimes lack both confidence in making end of life decisions and guidance. This study developed an alternative to lengthy guidelines, in the form of heuristics which were tested in clinical settings. The aim of this study was to test the usability and acceptability of a set of heuristics which could be used by practitioners providing EOLC for people with dementia in a variety of clinical and care settings.

Methods

A three phase co-design process was adopted: 1) Synthesis of evidence and outputs from interviews and focus groups with family carers and practitioners, by a co-design group, to develop heuristics; 2) Testing of the heuristics in five clinical or care settings for six months; 3) Evaluation of the heuristics at three and six months using qualitative individual and group interviews.

Results

Four heuristics were developed covering: eating and swallowing difficulties, agitation and restlessness, reviewing treatment and interventions at the end of life, and providing routine care. The five sites reported that the heuristics were simple and easy to use, comprehensive, and made implicit, tacit knowledge explicit. Four themes emerged from the qualitative evaluation: authority and permission; synthesis of best practice; providing a structure and breaking down complexity; and reassurance and instilling confidence.

Conclusion

Use of heuristics is a novel approach to end of life decision making in dementia which can be useful to both experienced and junior members of staff making decisions. Heuristics are a practical tool which could overcome a lack of care pathways and direct guidance in end of life care for people with dementia.

Recent insights into decision-making and their implications for informed consent

Research from behavioural sciences shows that people reach decisions in a much less rational and well-considered way than was often assumed. The doctrine of informed consent, which is an important ethical principle and legal requirement in medical practice, is being challenged by these insights into decision-making and real-world choice behaviour. This article discusses the implications of recent insights of research on decision-making behaviour for the informed consent doctrine. It concludes that there is a significant tension between the often non-rational choice behaviour and the traditional theory of informed consent. Responsible ways of dealing with or solving these problems are considered. To this end, patient decisions aids (PDAs) are discussed as suitable interventions to support autonomous decision-making. However, current PDAs demand certain improvements in order to protect and promote autonomous decision-making. Based on a conception of autonomy, we will argue which type of improvements are needed.

Evaluating the Presence of Cognitive Biases in Health Care Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Formulary Decision Makers

BACKGROUND

Behavioral economics is a field of economics that draws on insights from psychology to understand and identify patterns of decision making. Cognitive biases are psychological tendencies to process information in predictable patterns that result in deviations from rational decision making. Previous research has not evaluated the influence of cognitive biases on decision making in a managed care setting.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the presence of cognitive biases in formulary decision making.

METHODS

An online survey was conducted with a panel of U.S. pharmacy and medical directors who worked at managed care organizations and served on pharmacy and therapeutics committees. Survey questions assessed 4 cognitive biases: relative versus absolute framing effect, risk aversion, zero-risk bias, and delay discounting. Simulated data were presented in various scenarios related to adverse event profiles, drug safety and efficacy, and drug pricing for new hypothetical oncology products. Survey questions prompted participants to select a preferred drug based on the information provided. Survey answers were analyzed to identify decision patterns that could be explained by the cognitive biases. Likelihood of bias was analyzed via chi-square tests for framing effect, risk aversion, and zero-risk bias. The delay discounting section used a published algorithm to characterize discounting patterns.

RESULTS

A total of 35 pharmacy directors and 19 medical directors completed the survey. In the framing effect section, 80% of participants selected the suboptimal choice in the relative risk frame, compared with 38.9% in the absolute risk frame (P < 0.0001). When assessing risk aversion, 42.6% and 61.1% of participants displayed risk aversion in the cost- and efficacy-based scenarios, respectively, but these were not statistically significant (P = 0.27 and P = 0.10, respectively). In the zero-risk bias section, results from each scenario diverged. In the first zero-risk bias scenario, 90.7% of participants selected the drug with zero risk (P < 0.001), but in the second scenario, only 32.1% chose the zero-risk option (P < 0.01). In the section assessing delay discounting, 54% of survey participants favored a larger delayed rebate over a smaller immediate discount. A shallow delay discounting curve was produced, which indicated participants discounted delayed rewards to a minimal degree.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacy and medical directors, like other decision makers, appear to be susceptible to some cognitive biases. Directors demonstrated a tendency to underestimate risks when they were presented in relative risk terms but made more accurate appraisals when information was presented in absolute risk terms. Delay discounting also may be applicable to directors when choosing immediate discounts over delayed rebates. However, directors neither displayed a statistically significant bias for risk aversion when assessing scenarios related to drug pricing or clinical efficacy nor were there significant conclusions for zero-risk biases. Further research with larger samples using real-world health care decisions is necessary to validate these findings.

DISCLOSURES

This research was funded by Xcenda. Mezzio, Nguyen, and O'Day are employees of Xcenda. Kiselica was employed by Xcenda at the time the study was conducted. The authors have nothing to disclose. A portion of the preliminary data was presented as posters at the 2017 AMCP Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy Annual Meeting; March 27-30, 2017; in Denver, CO, and the 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research 22nd Annual International Meeting; May 20-24, 2017; in Boston, MA.

Parental Decision-Making and Deaf Children: A Systematic Literature Review

Parents or caregivers of children who are deaf or hard of hearing are required to make complex and rational decisions soon after the confirmation of hearing loss. Ways of facilitating decision-making have been a focus within the healthcare sector for two decades and shared decision-making is now widely viewed as the standard for good clinical care. A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify the extent to which the principles of shared decision-making and informed choice have been implemented for parents when they make decisions related to their children with permanent hearing loss. Five databases were searched for peer-reviewed papers describing the results of original research published from 2000 to 2017, yielding 37 relevant papers. Studies were reviewed using the three phases of decision-making-information exchange, deliberation, and implementation. Two decisions dominated these studies-implantable devices and communication modality. Most papers dealt with decision-making in the context of bilateral hearing loss, with only one study focusing on unilateral hearing loss. The review identified gaps where further research is needed to ensure the lessons learnt in the broader decision-making literature are implemented when parents make decisions regarding their child who is deaf or hard of hearing.

Behavioral Economics Interventions in Clinical Decision Support Systems

Background:  Clinical decision support (CDS) systems can improve safety and facilitate evidence-based practice. However, clinical decisions are often affected by the cognitive biases and heuristics of clinicians, which is increasing the interest in behavioral and cognitive science approaches in the medical field.

Objectives:  This review aimed to identify decision biases that lead clinicians to exhibit irrational behaviors or responses, and to show how behavioral economics can be applied to interventions in order to promote and reveal the contributions of CDS to improving health care quality.

Methods:  We performed a systematic review of studies published in 2016 and 2017 and applied a snowball citationsearch method to identify topical publications related to studies forming part of the BEARI (Application of Behavioral Economics to Improve the Treatment of Acute Respiratory Infections) multisite, cluster-randomized controlled trial performed in the United States.

Results:  We found that 10 behavioral economics concepts with nine cognitive biases were addressed and investigated for clinician decision-making, and that the following five concepts, which were actively explored, had an impact in CDS applications: social norms, framing effect, status-quo bias, heuristics, and overconfidence bias.

Conclusions:  Our review revealed that the use of behavioral economics techniques is increasing in areas such as antibiotics prescribing and preventive care, and that additional tests of the concepts and heuristics described would be useful in other areas of CDS. An improved understanding of the benefits and limitations of behavioral economics techniques is also still needed. Future studies should focus on successful design strategies and how to combine them with CDS functions for motivating clinicians.

Rural Women's Perceptions About Cancer Disparities and Contributing Factors: a Call to Communication

Rural cancer disparities are increasingly documented in the USA. Research has identified and begun to address rural residents' cancer knowledge and behaviors, especially among women. Little, however, is known about rural female residents' awareness of cancer inequities and perceived contributing factors affecting them and their families. The purpose of this study was to address these gaps in the literature via a secondary analysis of qualitative needs assessment in Illinois' rural southernmost seven counties, a geographic region with relatively high rates of cancer incidence, morbidity, and mortality. A convenience sample of 202 rural adult female residents was recruited and participated in 26 focus groups, with 3-13 women per group. Inductive content analysis, guided by the principle of constant comparison, was used to analyze the qualitative data. Most respondents indicated their awareness of disproportionate cancer burden in their communities. Individual-level behaviors and environmental toxins were identified as contributing factors. Interestingly, however, environmental toxins were more often discussed as factors contributing to geographic differences, whereas individual-level behaviors were noted as important for overall cancer prevention and control. This study provides important insight into female rural residents' perspectives and offers novel venues for educational programs and research in the context of communication to eliminate disparities.

Competing and conflicting interests in the care of critically ill patients

Medical professionals are expected to prioritize patient interests, and most patients trust physicians to act in their best interest. However, a single patient is never a physician's sole concern. The competing interests of other patients, clinicians, family members, hospital administrators, regulators, insurers, and trainees are omnipresent. While prioritizing patient interests is always a struggle, it is especially challenging and important in the ICU setting where most patients lack the ability to advocate for themselves or seek alternative sources of care. This review explores factors that increase the risk, or the perception, that an ICU physician will reason, recommend, or act in a way that is not in their patient's best interest and discusses steps that could help minimize the impact of these factors on patient care.

Understanding the human and system factors involved in medication errors

Medication errors involving patients are a serious concern in healthcare practice. Nurses, more than any other healthcare professional group, are principally involved in medicines administration. This article recognises the complexity of why medication errors occur and considers the many factors involved, including those from an individual and organisational system perspective. It adopts a solution-focused approach, based on the evidence underpinning the knowledge of medication errors.

How the Availability of Observation Status Affects Emergency Physician Decisionmaking

STUDY OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to understand how emergency physicians decide to use observation services, and how placing a patient under observation influences physicians' subsequent decisionmaking.

METHODS

We conducted detailed semistructured interviews with 24 emergency physicians, including 10 from a hospital in the US Midwest, and 14 from 2 hospitals in central and northern England. Data were extracted from the interview transcripts with open coding and analyzed with axial coding.

RESULTS

We found that physicians used a mix of intuitive and analytic thinking in initial decisions to admit, observe, or discharge patients, depending on the physician's individual level of risk aversion. Placing patients under observation made some physicians more systematic, whereas others cautioned against overreliance on observation services in the face of uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

Emergency physicians routinely make decisions in a highly resource-constrained environment. Observation services can relax these constraints by providing physicians with additional time, but absent clear protocols and metacognitive reflection on physician practice patterns, this may hinder, rather than facilitate, decisionmaking.

Confidence level of pediatric trainees in management of shock states

AIM

To assess overall confidence level of trainees in assessing and treating shock, we sought to improve awareness of recurrent biases in clinical decision-making to help address appropriate educational interventions.

METHODS

Pediatric trainees on a national listserv were offered the opportunity to complete an electronic survey anonymously. Four commonly occurring clinical scenarios were presented, and respondents were asked to choose whether or not they would give fluid, rank factors utilized in decision-making, and comment on confidence level in their decision.

RESULTS

Pediatric trainees have a very low confidence level for assessment and treatment of shock. Highest confidence level is for initial assessment and treatment of shock involving American College of Critical Care Medicine/Pediatric Advanced Life Support recommendations. Children with preexisting cardiac comorbidities are at high risk of under-resuscitation.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric trainees nationwide have low confidence in managing various shock states, and would benefit from guidance and teaching around certain common clinical situations.

Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences

BACKGROUND

Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients.

DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA₂DS₂-VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS₂)). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes.

RESULTS

Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score).

CONCLUSIONS

Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead to therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification and subsequent use of oral anticoagulants. Educational interventions, including formal training in risk management and decision-making are needed.

The Influence of Cognitive Bias on Caries Lesion Detection in Preschool Children

We aimed to evaluate whether children’s caries experience exerts an influence on the performance of visual and radiographic methods in detecting nonevident proximal caries lesions in primary molars. Eighty children (3–6 years old) were selected and classified as having a lower (≤3 decayed, missing, or filled surfaces; dmf-s) or higher (> 3 dmf-s) caries experience. Two calibrated examiners then assessed 526 proximal surfaces for caries lesions using visual and radiographic methods. As a reference standard, 2 other examiners checked the surfaces after temporary separation. Noncavitated and cavitated lesion thresholds were considered and Poisson multilevel regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence of caries experience on the performance of diagnostic strategies. Accuracy parameters stratified by caries experience were also derived. A statistically significant influence of caries experience was observed only for visual inspection, with more false-positive results in children with a higher caries experience at the noncavitated lesion threshold, and more false results at the cavitated threshold. The detection of noncavitated caries lesions in children with a higher caries experience was overestimated (specificity = 0.696), compared to children with a lower caries experience (specificity = 0.918), probably due to confirmation bias. However, the examiners underestimated the detection of cavitated lesions in children with a higher caries experience (sensitivity = 0.143) compared to lower-caries-experience children (sensitivity = 0.222), possibly because of representativeness bias. The radiographic method was not influenced by children’s caries experience. In conclusion, children’s caries experience influences the performance of visual inspection in detecting proximal caries lesions in primary teeth, evidencing the occurrence of cognitive biases.

Therapeutic Inertia in the New Landscape of Multiple Sclerosis Care

The landscape of multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment is constantly changing. Significant heterogeneity exists in the efficacy and risks associated with these therapies. Therefore, clinicians have the challenge to tailor treatment based on several factors (disease activity level, risk of progression, individual patient preferences and characteristics, personal expertise, etc.), to identify the optimal balance between safety and efficacy. However, most clinicians have limited education in decision-making and formal training in risk management. Together, these factors may lead to therapeutic inertia (TI); defined as the absence of treatment initiation or intensification when therapeutic goals are unmet. TI may lead to suboptimal treatments choices, worse clinical outcomes, and more disability. This article provides a succinct overview on factors influencing TI in MS care.

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease-II: Visual Pattern Perception and Diagnostic Accuracy

Previously, we reviewed how general cognitive processes might be susceptible to bias across both forensic and clinical fields, and how interdisciplinary comparisons could reduce error. We discuss several examples of clinical tasks which are heavily dependent on visual processing, comparing them to eyewitness identification (EI). We review the "constructive" nature of visual processing, and how contextual factors influence both medical experts and witnesses in decision making and recall. Overall, studies suggest common cognitive factors uniting these visual tasks, in both their strengths and shortcomings. Recently forensic sciences have advocated reducing errors by identifying and controlling nonrelevant information. Such efforts could effectively assist medical diagnosis. We suggest potential remedies for cognitive bias in these tasks. These can generalize across the clinical and forensic domains, including controlling the sequencing of contextual factors. One solution is an agnostic primary reading before incorporation of a complete history and interpretation.

Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness

Construct: Authors examined whether a new vignette-based instrument could isolate and quantify heuristic bias.

BACKGROUND

Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that may introduce bias and contribute to error. There is no standardized instrument available to quantify heuristic bias in clinical decision making, limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics.

APPROACH

Participants completed questionnaires requiring assignment of probabilities to potential outcomes of medical and nonmedical scenarios. The instrument randomly presented scenarios in one of two versions: Version A, encouraging heuristic bias, and Version B, worded neutrally. The primary outcome was the difference in probability judgments for Version A versus Version B scenario options.

RESULTS

Of 167 participants recruited, 139 enrolled. Participants assigned significantly higher mean probability values to Version A scenario options (M = 9.56, SD = 3.75) than Version B (M = 8.98, SD = 3.76), t(1801) = 3.27, p = .001. This result remained significant analyzing medical scenarios alone (Version A, M = 9.41, SD = 3.92; Version B, M = 8.86, SD = 4.09), t(1204) = 2.36, p = .02. Analyzing medical scenarios by heuristic revealed a significant difference between Version A and B for availability (Version A, M = 6.52, SD = 3.32; Version B, M = 5.52, SD = 3.05), t(404) = 3.04, p = .003, and representativeness (Version A, M = 11.45, SD = 3.12; Version B, M = 10.67, SD = 3.71), t(396) = 2.28, p = .02, but not anchoring. Stratifying by training level, students maintained a significant difference between Version A and B medical scenarios (Version A, M = 9.83, SD = 3.75; Version B, M = 9.00, SD = 3.98), t(465) = 2.29, p = .02, but not residents or attendings. Stratifying by heuristic and training level, availability maintained significance for students (Version A, M = 7.28, SD = 3.46; Version B, M = 5.82, SD = 3.22), t(153) = 2.67, p = .008, and residents (Version A, M = 7.19, SD = 3.24; Version B, M = 5.56, SD = 2.72), t(77) = 2.32, p = .02, but not attendings.

CONCLUSIONS

Authors developed an instrument to isolate and quantify bias produced by the availability and representativeness heuristics, and illustrated the utility of their instrument by demonstrating decreased heuristic bias within medical contexts at higher training levels.

Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations

Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

Design of a randomized clinical trial of a colorectal cancer screening decision aid to promote appropriate screening in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND

Appropriate colorectal cancer screening in older adults should be aligned with the likelihood of net benefit. In general, patient decision aids improve knowledge and values clarity, but in older adults, they may also help patients identify their individual likelihood of benefit and foster individualized decision-making. We report on the design of a randomized clinical trial to understand the effects of a patient decision aid on appropriate colorectal cancer screening. This report includes a description of the baseline characteristics of participants.

METHODS

English-speaking primary care patients aged 70-84 years who were not currently up to date with screening were recruited into a randomized clinical trial comparing a tailored colorectal cancer screening decision aid with an attention control. The intervention group received a decision aid that included a values clarification exercise and individualized decision-making worksheet, while the control group received an educational pamphlet on safe driving behaviors. The primary outcome was appropriate screening at 6 months based on chart review. We used a composite measure to define appropriate screening as screening for participants in good health, a discussion about screening for patients in intermediate health, and no screening for patients in poor health. Health state was objectively determined using patients' Charlson Comorbidity Index score and age.

RESULTS

A total of 14 practices in central North Carolina participated as part of a practice-based research network. In total, 424 patients were recruited to participate and completed a baseline visit. Overall, 79% of participants were White and 58% female, with a mean age of 76.8 years. Patient characteristics between groups were similar by age, gender, race, education, insurance coverage, or work status. Overall, 70% had some college education or more, 57% were married, and virtually all had Medicare insurance (90%). The three primary medical conditions among the cohort were a history of diabetes, pneumonia, and cancer (28%, 26%, and 21%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

We designed a randomized clinical trial to test a novel use of a patient decision aid to promote appropriate colorectal cancer screening and have recruited a diverse study population that seems similar between the intervention and control groups. The study should be able to determine the ability of a patient decision aid to increase individualized and appropriate colorectal cancer screening.

Influence of Market Competition on Tetracycline Pricing and Impact of Price Increases on Clinician Prescribing Behavior

Oral tetracyclines are commonly used for acne and other conditions. Recent generic price increases threaten access to these medications. Using the OptumInsight Clinformatics DataMart, we retrospectively evaluated the underlying factors behind these price increases for oral tetracylines using the framework of a competitive market and evaluated the impact of these price increases on prescribing practices. Between 2011 and 2013, the mean cost of doxycycline hyclate prescriptions increased from $7.16 to $139.89 and the mean out-of-pocket cost increased by $9.69. A comparable cost increase was not observed for doxycycline monohydrate or minocycline. There was no significant association between the cost of doxycycline hyclate and market concentration as assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (β = 0.030, 95% confidence interval -0.019 to 0.079, P = 0.213) and the market was highly concentrated throughout the study period. The percentage of prescriptions for doxycycline hyclate decreased by 1.9% from 2011 to 2013. This dramatic increase in the cost of doxycycline hyclate is not easily explained using the framework of a competitive market, suggesting that noncompetitive market forces may be responsible. In addition, clinicians have not altered their prescribing behavior in response to this price increase, suggesting that clinician or pharmacy level interventions could potentially increase the use of less costly substitutes.

Visualizing risks in cancer communication: A systematic review of computer-supported visual aids

OBJECTIVE

Health websites are becoming important sources for cancer information. Lay users, patients and carers seek support for critical decisions, but they are prone to common biases when quantitative information is presented. Graphical representations of risk data can facilitate comprehension, and interactive visualizations are popular. This review summarizes the evidence on computer-supported graphs that present risk data and their effects on various measures.

METHODS

The systematic literature search was conducted in several databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Only studies with a controlled design were included. Relevant publications were carefully selected and critically appraised by two reviewers.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies were included. Ten studies evaluated static graphs and three dynamic formats. Most decision scenarios were hypothetical. Static graphs could improve accuracy, comprehension, and behavioural intention. But the results were heterogeneous and inconsistent among the studies. Dynamic formats were not superior or even impaired performance compared to static formats.

CONCLUSIONS

Static graphs show promising but inconsistent results, while research on dynamic visualizations is scarce and must be interpreted cautiously due to methodical limitations.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Well-designed and context-specific static graphs can support web-based cancer risk communication in particular populations. The application of dynamic formats cannot be recommended and needs further research.

Heuristics and bias in rectal surgery

PURPOSE

Deciding to defunction after anterior resection can be difficult, requiring cognitive tools or heuristics. From our previous work, increasing age and risk-taking propensity were identified as heuristic biases for surgeons in Australia and New Zealand (CSSANZ), and inversely proportional to the likelihood of creating defunctioning stomas. We aimed to assess these factors for colorectal surgeons in the British Isles, and identify other potential biases.

METHODS

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) was invited to complete an online survey. Questions included demographics, risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to professional criticism, self-perception of anastomotic leak rate and propensity for creating defunctioning stomas. Chi-squared testing was used to assess differences between ACPGBI and CSSANZ respondents. Multiple regression analysis identified independent surgeon predictors of stoma formation.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty (19.2%) eligible members of the ACPGBI replied. Demographics between ACPGBI and CSSANZ groups were well-matched. Significantly more ACPGBI surgeons admitted to anastomotic leak in the last year (p < 0.001). ACPGBI surgeon age over 50 (p = 0.02), higher risk-taking propensity across several domains (p = 0.044), self-belief in a lower-than-average anastomotic leak rate (p = 0.02) and belief that the average risk of leak after anterior resection is 8% or lower (p = 0.007) were all independent predictors of less frequent stoma formation. Sensitivity to criticism from colleagues was not a predictor of stoma formation.

CONCLUSIONS

Unrecognised surgeon factors including age, everyday risk-taking, self-belief in surgical ability and lower probability bias of anastomotic leak appear to exert an effect on decision-making in rectal surgery.

Drivers of poor medical care

The global ubiquity of overuse and underuse of health-care resources and the gravity of resulting harms necessitate an investigation of drivers to inform potential solutions. We describe the network of influences that contribute to poor care and suggest that it is driven by factors that fall into three domains: money and finance; knowledge, bias, and uncertainty; and power and human relationships. In each domain the drivers operate at the global, national, regional, and individual level, and are modulated by the specific contexts within which they act. We discuss in detail drivers of poor care in each domain.

Debiasing Health-Related Judgments and Decision Making: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Being confronted with uncertainty in the context of health-related judgments and decision making can give rise to the occurrence of systematic biases. These biases may detrimentally affect lay persons and health experts alike. Debiasing aims at mitigating these negative effects by eliminating or reducing the biases. However, little is known about its effectiveness. This study seeks to systematically review the research on health-related debiasing to identify new opportunities and challenges for successful debiasing strategies.

METHODS

A systematic search resulted in 2748 abstracts eligible for screening. Sixty-eight articles reporting 87 relevant studies met the predefined inclusion criteria and were categorized and analyzed with regard to content and quality. All steps were undertaken independently by 2 reviewers, and inconsistencies were resolved through discussion.

RESULTS

The majority of debiasing interventions ( n = 60) was at least partially successful. Optimistic biases ( n = 25), framing effects ( n = 14), and base rate neglects ( n = 10) were the main targets of debiasing efforts. Cognitive strategies ( n = 36) such as "consider-the-opposite" and technological interventions ( n = 33) such as visual aids were mainly tested. Thirteen studies aimed at debiasing health care professionals' judgments, while 74 interventions addressed the general population. Studies' methodological quality ranged from 26.2% to 92.9%, with an average rating of 68.7%.

DISCUSSION

In the past, the usefulness of debiasing was often debated. Yet most of the interventions reviewed here are found to be effective, pointing to the utility of debiasing in the health context. In particular, technological strategies offer a novel opportunity to pursue large-scale debiasing outside the laboratory. The need to strengthen the transfer of debiasing interventions to real-life settings and a lack of conceptual rigor are identified as the main challenges requiring further research.

Variations in GPs' decisions to investigate suspected lung cancer: a factorial experiment using multimedia vignettes

INTRODUCTION

Lung cancer survival is low and comparatively poor in the UK. Patients with symptoms suggestive of lung cancer commonly consult primary care, but it is unclear how general practitioners (GPs) distinguish which patients require further investigation. This study examined how patients' clinical and sociodemographic characteristics influence GPs' decisions to initiate lung cancer investigations.

METHODS

A factorial experiment was conducted among a national sample of 227 English GPs using vignettes presented as simulated consultations. A multimedia-interactive website simulated key features of consultations using actors ('patients'). GP participants made management decisions online for six 'patients', whose sociodemographic characteristics systematically varied across three levels of cancer risk. In low-risk vignettes, investigation (ie, chest X-ray ordered, computerised tomography scan or respiratory consultant referral) was not indicated; in medium-risk vignettes, investigation could be appropriate; in high-risk vignettes, investigation was definitely indicated. Each 'patient' had two lung cancer-related symptoms: one volunteered and another elicited if GPs asked. Variations in investigation likelihood were examined using multilevel logistic regression.

RESULTS

GPs decided to investigate lung cancer in 74% (1000/1348) of vignettes. Investigation likelihood did not increase with cancer risk. Investigations were more likely when GPs requested information on symptoms that 'patients' had but did not volunteer (adjusted OR (AOR)=3.18; 95% CI 2.27 to 4.70). However, GPs omitted to seek this information in 42% (570/1348) of cases. GPs were less likely to investigate older than younger 'patients' (AOR=0.52; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.7) and black 'patients' than white (AOR=0.68; 95% CI 0.48 to 0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

GPs were not more likely to investigate 'patients' with high-risk than low-risk cancer symptoms. Furthermore, they did not investigate everyone with the same symptoms equally. Insufficient data gathering could be responsible for missed opportunities in diagnosis.

How Expert Clinicians Intuitively Recognize a Medical Diagnosis

Research has shown that expert clinicians make a medical diagnosis through a process of hypothesis generation and verification. Experts begin the diagnostic process by generating a list of diagnostic hypotheses using intuitive, nonanalytic reasoning. Analytic reasoning then allows the clinician to test and verify or reject each hypothesis, leading to a diagnostic conclusion. In this article, we focus on the initial step of hypothesis generation and review how expert clinicians use experiential knowledge to intuitively recognize a medical diagnosis.

Countering cognitive biases in minimising low value care

Cognitive biases in decision making may make it difficult for clinicians to reconcile evidence of overuse with highly ingrained prior beliefs and intuition. Such biases can predispose clinicians towards low value care and may limit the impact of recently launched campaigns aimed at reducing such care. Commonly encountered biases comprise commission bias, illusion of control, impact bias, availability bias, ambiguity bias, extrapolation bias, endowment effects, sunken cost bias and groupthink. Various strategies may be used to counter such biases, including cognitive huddles, narratives of patient harm, value considerations in clinical assessments, defining acceptable levels of risk of adverse outcomes, substitution, reflective practice and role modelling, normalisation of deviance, nudge techniques and shared decision making. These debiasing strategies have considerable face validity and, for some, effectiveness in reducing low value care has been shown in randomised trials.

Does Machine Learning Automate Moral Hazard and Error?

Machine learning tools are beginning to be deployed en masse in health care. While the statistical underpinnings of these techniques have been questioned with regard to causality and stability, we highlight a different concern here, relating to measurement issues. A characteristic feature of health data, unlike other applications of machine learning, is that neither y nor x is measured perfectly. Far from a minor nuance, this can undermine the power of machine learning algorithms to drive change in the health care system--and indeed, can cause them to reproduce and even magnify existing errors in human judgment.

How Robust Are Value Judgments of Health Inequality Aversion? Testing for Framing and Cognitive Effects

BACKGROUND

Empirical studies have found that members of the public are inequality averse and value health gains for disadvantaged groups with poor health many times more highly than gains for better off groups. However, these studies typically use abstract scenarios that involve unrealistically large reductions in health inequality and face-to-face survey administration. It is not known how robust these findings are to more realistic scenarios or anonymous online survey administration.

METHODS

This study aimed to test the robustness of questionnaire estimates of inequality aversion by comparing the following: 1) small versus unrealistically large health inequality reductions, 2) population-level versus individual-level descriptions of health inequality reductions, 3) concrete versus abstract intervention scenarios, and 4) online versus face-to-face mode of administration. Fifty-two members of the public participated in face-to-face discussion groups, while 83 members of the public completed an online survey. Participants were given a questionnaire instrument with different scenario descriptions for eliciting aversion to social inequality in health.

RESULTS

The median respondent was inequality averse under all scenarios. Scenarios involving small rather than unrealistically large health gains made little difference in terms of inequality aversion, as did population-level rather than individual-level scenarios. However, the proportion expressing extreme inequality aversion fell 19 percentage points when considering a specific health intervention scenario rather than an abstract scenario and was 11 to 21 percentage points lower among online public respondents compared with the discussion group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that both concrete scenarios and online administration reduce the proportion expressing extreme inequality aversion but still yield median responses that imply substantial health inequality aversion.

Information order effects in clinical psychological diagnoses

Despite the wide application and long history of diagnostic systems, several sources of diagnostic errors remain in the criterion-based diagnosing of mental disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the presentational order of diagnosis-relevant information and pretreatment reports predict diagnostic errors. One hundred twenty psychotherapists participated in the present online study. The study employed a 2 (symptom presentation: core symptoms at vignette's beginning vs. core symptoms at the end of the case vignette) × 2 (pretreatment report: receiving a pretreatment report with an incongruent diagnosis to the case vignette vs. receiving no pretreatment report) between-subjects experimental design, with random assignment. Participants were asked to make diagnoses after reading three case vignettes describing patients with different disorder constellations. Additionally, participants rated their confidence in the diagnoses and their estimation of the severity of each diagnosed condition. Results indicated that order of symptom descriptions predicted the correctness of diagnostic decisions, with a recency effect causing more fully correct diagnostic decisions in cases where diagnostic information was presented last. Receiving incongruent pretreatment reports was predictive for diagnostic errors. In conclusion, the results of this study indicate that diagnoses of mental disorders can depend on the way symptoms are presented or reported.

KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE

Therapists' diagnostic decisions are not influenced by pretreatment reports. Diagnostic decisions are affected by information order effects. Diagnostic accuracy of psychotherapists is debatable. High rate of misdiagnoses in case vignette with comorbid disorders.

Decision-making in Multiple Sclerosis: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity for Therapeutic Inertia among Neurologists (DIScUTIR MS)

Objectives

Limited information is available on physician-related factors influencing therapeutic inertia (TI) in multiple sclerosis (MS). Our aim was to evaluate whether physicians’ risk preferences are associated with TI in MS care, by applying concepts from behavioral economics.

Design

In this cross-sectional study, participants answered questions regarding the management of 20 MS case scenarios, completed 3 surveys, and 4 experimental paradigms based on behavioral economics. Surveys and experiments included standardized measures of aversion ambiguity in financial and health domains, physicians’ reactions to uncertainty in patient care, and questions related to risk preferences in different domains. The primary outcome was TI when physicians faced a need for escalating therapy based on clinical (new relapse) and magnetic resonance imaging activity while patients were on a disease-modifying agent.

Results

Of 161 neurologists who were invited to participate in the project, 136 cooperated with the study (cooperation rate 84.5%) and 96 completed the survey (response rate: 60%). TI was present in 68.8% of participants. Similar results were observed for definitions of TI based on modified Rio or clinical progression. Aversion to ambiguity was associated with higher prevalence of TI (86.4% with high aversion to ambiguity vs. 63.5% with lower or no aversion to ambiguity; p = 0.042). In multivariate analyses, high aversion to ambiguity was the strongest predictor of TI (OR 7.39; 95%CI 1.40–38.9), followed by low tolerance to uncertainty (OR 3.47; 95%CI 1.18–10.2).

Conclusion

TI is a common phenomenon affecting nearly 7 out of 10 physicians caring for MS patients. Higher prevalence of TI was associated with physician’s strong aversion to ambiguity and low tolerance of uncertainty.

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease: Bias Reduction Strategies in the Forensic and Clinical Sciences

Cognitive effort is an essential part of both forensic and clinical decision-making. Errors occur in both fields because the cognitive process is complex and prone to bias. We performed a selective review of full-text English language literature on cognitive bias leading to diagnostic and forensic errors. Earlier work (1970-2000) concentrated on classifying and raising bias awareness. Recently (2000-2016), the emphasis has shifted toward strategies for "debiasing." While the forensic sciences have focused on the control of misleading contextual cues, clinical debiasing efforts have relied on checklists and hypothetical scenarios. No single generally applicable and effective bias reduction strategy has emerged so far. Generalized attempts at bias elimination have not been particularly successful. It is time to shift focus to the study of errors within specific domains, and how to best communicate uncertainty in order to improve decision making on the part of both the expert and the trier-of-fact.

The Causes of Errors in Clinical Reasoning: Cognitive Biases, Knowledge Deficits, and Dual Process Thinking

Contemporary theories of clinical reasoning espouse a dual processing model, which consists of a rapid, intuitive component (Type 1) and a slower, logical and analytical component (Type 2). Although the general consensus is that this dual processing model is a valid representation of clinical reasoning, the causes of diagnostic errors remain unclear. Cognitive theories about human memory propose that such errors may arise from both Type 1 and Type 2 reasoning. Errors in Type 1 reasoning may be a consequence of the associative nature of memory, which can lead to cognitive biases. However, the literature indicates that, with increasing expertise (and knowledge), the likelihood of errors decreases. Errors in Type 2 reasoning may result from the limited capacity of working memory, which constrains computational processes. In this article, the authors review the medical literature to answer two substantial questions that arise from this work: (1) To what extent do diagnostic errors originate in Type 1 (intuitive) processes versus in Type 2 (analytical) processes? (2) To what extent are errors a consequence of cognitive biases versus a consequence of knowledge deficits?The literature suggests that both Type 1 and Type 2 processes contribute to errors. Although it is possible to experimentally induce cognitive biases, particularly availability bias, the extent to which these biases actually contribute to diagnostic errors is not well established. Educational strategies directed at the recognition of biases are ineffective in reducing errors; conversely, strategies focused on the reorganization of knowledge to reduce errors have small but consistent benefits.

Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians

BACKGROUND

Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between family physicians' risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics.

METHODS

Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention.

RESULTS

Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08-27.85). Physicians' willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.86).

CONCLUSION

Physicians' aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed.

An Investigation of Diagnostic Accuracy and Confidence Associated with Diagnostic Checklists as Well as Gender Biases in Relation to Mental Disorders

This study examines the utility of checklists in attaining more accurate diagnoses in the context of diagnostic decision-making for mental disorders. The study also aimed to replicate results from a meta-analysis indicating that there is no association between patients’ gender and misdiagnoses. To this end, 475 psychotherapists were asked to judge three case vignettes describing patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), Generalized Anxiety Disorder, and Borderline Personality Disorder. Therapists were randomly assigned to experimental conditions in a 2 (diagnostic method: with using diagnostic checklists vs. without using diagnostic checklists) × 2 (gender: male vs. female case vignettes) between-subjects design. Multinomial logistic and linear regression analyses were used to examine the association between the usage of diagnostic checklists as well as patients’ gender and diagnostic decisions. The results showed that when checklists were used, fewer incorrect co-morbid diagnoses were made, but clinicians were less likely to diagnose MDD even when the criteria were met. Additionally, checklists improved therapists’ confidence with diagnostic decisions, but were not associated with estimations of patients’ characteristics. As expected, there were no significant associations between gender and diagnostic decisions.

Measuring Up to Expectation: Cognitive Bias in Wrist Range-of-Motion Measurement

Study Design Controlled laboratory study, cross-sectional design. Background The role of cognitive biases and their effect on a wide range of aspects relevant to clinical medicine has become the focus of a growing body of research, yet their effect in physical therapy is not well established. Objectives To test whether anchoring information provided to physical therapists prior to assessment of wrist range of motion (ROM) may induce bias in the measurement. Methods A total of 120 physical therapists participated in the study. Participants were asked to measure passive wrist extension ROM of a 65-year-old woman with no history of injury to the upper limb using a universal goniometer. Before initiating the measurement, some participants received a clinical description, which included sham information about the patient's health history. Three groups were differentiated according to the provided clinical content: no bias (n = 38), moderate bias (n = 41), and substantial bias (n = 41). An analysis of covariance was applied to test for differences between the 3 groups while controlling for any potential sex and experience effects. Results The analysis of covariance yielded a significant group effect (P = .009), with no significant effect for sex and experience. The adjusted mean wrist ROM was 80.2° for the no-bias group, 74.5° for the moderate-bias group, and 72.4° for the substantial-bias group. Post hoc tests demonstrated significant difference only between the group with no bias and the substantial-bias group (mean difference, 7.7°; P = .009). Conclusion Anchoring information was associated with differential results of an objective test. Physical therapists should increase their awareness of biases and consider employing debiasing strategies. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(12):1037-1041. Epub 30 Oct 2016. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.6845.

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey

BACKGROUND

Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty.

METHODS

Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost.

RESULTS

In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Cognitive biases associated with medical decisions: a systematic review

Background

Cognitive biases and personality traits (aversion to risk or ambiguity) may lead to diagnostic inaccuracies and medical errors resulting in mismanagement or inadequate utilization of resources. We conducted a systematic review with four objectives: 1) to identify the most common cognitive biases, 2) to evaluate the influence of cognitive biases on diagnostic accuracy or management errors, 3) to determine their impact on patient outcomes, and 4) to identify literature gaps.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library databases for relevant articles on cognitive biases from 1980 to May 2015. We included studies conducted in physicians that evaluated at least one cognitive factor using case-vignettes or real scenarios and reported an associated outcome written in English. Data quality was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Among 114 publications, 20 studies comprising 6810 physicians met the inclusion criteria. Nineteen cognitive biases were identified.

Results

All studies found at least one cognitive bias or personality trait to affect physicians. Overconfidence, lower tolerance to risk, the anchoring effect, and information and availability biases were associated with diagnostic inaccuracies in 36.5 to 77 % of case-scenarios. Five out of seven (71.4 %) studies showed an association between cognitive biases and therapeutic or management errors. Of two (10 %) studies evaluating the impact of cognitive biases or personality traits on patient outcomes, only one showed that higher tolerance to ambiguity was associated with increased medical complications (9.7 % vs 6.5 %; p = .004). Most studies (60 %) targeted cognitive biases in diagnostic tasks, fewer focused on treatment or management (35 %) and on prognosis (10 %). Literature gaps include potentially relevant biases (e.g. aggregate bias, feedback sanction, hindsight bias) not investigated in the included studies. Moreover, only five (25 %) studies used clinical guidelines as the framework to determine diagnostic or treatment errors. Most studies (n = 12, 60 %) were classified as low quality.

Conclusions

Overconfidence, the anchoring effect, information and availability bias, and tolerance to risk may be associated with diagnostic inaccuracies or suboptimal management. More comprehensive studies are needed to determine the prevalence of cognitive biases and personality traits and their potential impact on physicians’ decisions, medical errors, and patient outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12911-016-0377-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing surgeon behavior change after anastomotic leak in colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND

Recency effect suggests that people disproportionately value events from the immediate past when making decisions, but the extent of this impact on surgeons' decisions is unknown. This study evaluates for recency effect in surgeons by examining use of preventative leak testing before and after colorectal operations with anastomotic leaks.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective cohort of adult patients (≥18 y) undergoing elective colorectal operations at Washington State hospitals participating in the Surgical Care and Outcomes Assessment Program (2006-2013). The main outcome measure was surgeons' change in leak testing from 6 mo before to 6 mo after an anastomotic leak occurred.

RESULTS

Across 4854 elective colorectal operations performed by 282 surgeons at 44 hospitals, there was a leak rate of 2.6% (n = 124). The 40 leaks (32%) in which the anastomosis was not tested occurred across 25 surgeons. While the ability to detect an overall difference in use of leak testing was limited by small sample size, nine (36%) of 25 surgeons increased their leak testing by 5% points or more after leaks in cases where the anastomosis was not tested. Surgeons who increased their leak testing more frequently performed operations for diverticulitis (45% versus 33%), more frequently began their cases laparoscopically (65% versus 37%), and had longer mean operative times (195 ± 99 versus 148 ± 87 min), all P < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Recency effect was demonstrated by only one-third of eligible surgeons. Understanding the extent to which clinical decisions may be influenced by recency effect may be important in crafting quality improvement initiatives that require clinician behavior change.

Does it matter whether physicians' recommendations are given early or late in the decision-making process? An experimental study among patients with schizophrenia

OBJECTIVES

Physicians' recommendations are seen as an essential component in many models of medical decision-making, including shared decision-making. It is, however, unclear at what time in the decision-making process the recommendation is best given, not to adversely influence patient preferences. Within the present study we wanted to evaluate at what time in the decision-making process a doctor's recommendation is best given, not to adversely influence patient preferences.

DESIGN

We performed an experimental study involving hypothetical decisions vignettes and compared the influence of 3 conditions (no advice, early advice, late advice) on patients' decision-making.

SETTING

N=21 psychiatric hospitals in Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

N=208 inpatients suffering from schizophrenia.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was the number of patients choosing the option in each experimental condition that had been less preferable to most patients during pretests. Additional outcome measures were patient satisfaction and reactance.

RESULTS

Patients in the 'late advice' condition more often (n=49) accepted an advice that was against their preferences compared with the other conditions (n=36 for 'early advice', p=0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

Although giving advice is an important part of every doctor's daily practice and is seen as an essential element of shared decision-making, hitherto there has been little empirical evidence relating to the influence of physicians' advice on patients' decision-making behaviour. With our study we could show that the point in time an advice is given by a physician does have an influence on patients' decisional behaviour even if the mechanism of this effect is not yet understood.

Physician morality and perinatal decisions

OBJECTIVE

Given the same set of "facts" (e.g. fetal prognosis) different physicians may not give the same advice to patients. Studies have shown that people differ in how they prioritize moral domains, but how those domains influence counseling and management has not been assessed among obstetricians. Our objective was to see if, given the same set of facts, obstetricians' counseling would vary depending on their prioritization of moral domains.

DESIGN

Obstetricians completed questionnaires that included validated scales of moral domains (e.g. autonomy, community, divinity), demographic data, and hypothetical scenarios (e.g. how aggressively they would pursue the interests of a potentially compromised child, the degree of deference they gave to parents' choices, and their relative valuation of fetal rights and women's rights). Multivariate logistic regression using backwards conditional selection was used to explore how participants responded to the moral dilemma scenarios.

RESULTS

Among the 249 participating obstetricians there was wide variation in counseling, much of which reflected differences in prioritization of moral domains. For example, requiring a higher likelihood of neonatal survival before recommending a cesarean section with cord prolapse was associated with Fairness/Reciprocity, an autonomy domain which emphasizes treating individuals equally (OR=1.42, 90% CI=1.06-1.89, p=0.05). Honoring parents' request to wait longer to suspend attempts to resuscitate an infant with no heart rate or pulse was associated with the community domains (involving concepts of loyalty and hierarchy) of In-Group/Loyalty; OR 1.30, 90% CI=1.04-1.62, p=0.05 and Authority/Respect (OR=1.34, 90% CI=1.06-1.34, p=0.045). Carrying out an unconsented cesarean section was associated with In-Group Loyalty (OR=1.26, 90% CI=1.01-1.56, p=0.08) and religiosity (OR=1.08, 90% CI=1.00-1.16, p=0.08).

CONCLUSION

The advice that patients receive may vary widely depending on the underlying moral values of obstetricians. Physicians should be aware of their "biases" in order to provide the most objective counseling possible.

A co-design process developing heuristics for practitioners providing end of life care for people with dementia

BACKGROUND

The end of life for someone with dementia can present many challenges for practitioners; such as, providing care if there are swallowing difficulties. This study aimed to develop a toolkit of heuristics (rules-of-thumb) to aid practitioners making end-of-life care decisions for people with dementia.

METHODS

An iterative co-design approach was adopted using a literature review and qualitative methods, including; 1) qualitative interviews and focus groups with family carers and 2) focus groups with health and care professionals. Family carers were recruited from a national charity, purposively sampling those with experience of end-of-life care for a person with dementia. Health and care professionals were purposively sampled to include a broad range of expertise including; general practitioners, palliative care specialists, and geriatricians. A co-design group was established consisting of health and social care experts and family carers, to synthesise the findings from the qualitative work and produce a toolkit of heuristics to be tested in practice.

RESULTS

Four broad areas were identified as requiring complex decisions at the end of life; 1) eating/swallowing difficulties, 2) agitation/restlessness, 3) ending life-sustaining treatment, and 4) providing "routine care" at the end of life. Each topic became a heuristic consisting of rules arranged into flowcharts. Eating/swallowing difficulties have three rules; ensuring eating/swallowing difficulties do not come as a surprise, considering if the situation is an emergency, and considering 'comfort feeding' only versus time-trialled artificial feeding. Agitation/restlessness encourages a holistic approach, considering the environment, physical causes, and the carer's wellbeing. Ending life-sustaining treatment supports practitioners through a process of considering the benefits of treatment versus quality-of-life and comfort. Finally, a heuristic on providing routine care such as bathing, prompts practitioners to consider adapting the delivery of care, in order to promote comfort and dignity at the end of life.

CONCLUSIONS

The heuristics are easy to use and remember, offering a novel approach to decision making for dementia end-of-life care. They have the potential to be used alongside existing end-of-life care recommendations, adding more readily available practical assistance. This is the first study to synthesise experience and existing evidence into easy-to-use heuristics for dementia end-of-life care.