A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change

Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.

An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration

To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM.

Managing aquatic species of conservation concern in the face of climate change and invasive species

The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.

Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.

Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.

Measuring the response of animals to contemporary drivers of fragmentationThis review is one of a series dealing with some aspects of the impact of habitat fragmentation on animals and plants. This series is one of several virtual symposia focussing on ecological topics that will be published in the Journal from time to time

From the perspective of most animals, fragmentation is a landscape-scale process in which habitat is separated into many smaller patches that have less total area. Here, we examine how two contemporary drivers of fragmentation, anthropogenic climate change and exurbanization, affect movement and responses of animal species to new environmental conditions. We address the definition of fragmentation and how the spatial patterns created by fragmentation can be measured at the scales at which different species of animals respond to their environments. We discuss tools, such as satellite remote sensing, that increasingly make it possible to identify and quantify changes in land cover and vegetation structure across extensive areas. We also describe a range of methods that are available to guide decisions about faunal surveys and monitoring programs in fragments or reference areas. Examination of stochastic changes in land cover and species occurrence over time is important because these shifts can confound detection of systematic responses to fragmentation. Careful evaluation of fragmentation and its influence on the distribution and viability of fauna may help to identify underlying mechanisms and to develop effective strategies for conservation and land use.

Genetic differentiation across a latitudinal gradient in two co-occurring butterfly species: revealing population differences in a context of climate change

Genetic differentiation within a species' range is determined by natural selection, genetic drift, and gene flow. Selection and drift enhance genetic differences if populations are sufficiently isolated, while gene flow precludes differentiation and local adaptation. Over large geographical areas, these processes can create a variety of scenarios, ranging from admixture to a high degree of population differentiation. Genetic differences among populations may signal functional differences within a species' range, potentially leading to population or ecotype-specific responses to global change. We investigated differentiation within the geographical range of two butterfly species along a broad latitudinal gradient. This gradient is the primary axis of climatic variation, and many ecologists expect populations at the poleward edge of this gradient to expand under climate change. Our study species inhabit a shared ecosystem and differ in body size and resource specialization; both also find their poleward range limit on an island. We find evidence for divergence of peripheral populations from the core in both taxa, suggesting the potential for genetic distinctiveness at the leading edge of climate change. We also find differences between the species in the extent of peripheral differentiation with the smaller and more specialized species showing greater population divergence (microsatellites and mtDNA) and reduced gene flow (mtDNA). Finally, gene flow estimates in both species differed strongly between two marker types. These findings suggest caution in assuming that populations are invariant across latitude and thus will respond as a single ecotype to climatic change.