Conflict and polio: winning the polio wars

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Child health services and armed conflict in Tigray, North Ethiopia: a community-based study

BACKGROUND

Access to basic health services, notably child health services, is severely hampered by the armed conflict in Tigray, North Ethiopia. Little is known regarding the impacts of the armed conflict during the war in Tigray on access to child health services. The current study investigates the impact of the armed conflict on the utilization of child health services in Tigray.

METHODS

4,381 caregivers from randomly recruited households (HHs) with at least one child younger than 1 year old participated in a community-based cross-sectional survey. We collected data on childhood immunizations and illness-related treatment seeking from August 4 to 20, 2021. We describe data using frequency and percentage and carry out an internal comparison among the study participants using chi-square tests.

RESULTS

4,381 children under the age of one included in the study. In total, 39% of infants received no basic vaccines, 61.3% of the children under the age of one received at least one vaccine, and 20% received all the vaccinations recommended for their age. About 61% of children were affected by at least one childhood ailments where majority of them were from rural areas. Mothers who did not seek postnatal care (PNC) were responsible for more than 75% of reported childhood illnesses.

CONCLUSIONS

A sizable portion of children were unvaccinated and had at least one childhood sickness while the war was in progress. Particularly, people who live in rural areas reported a higher percentage of children's illnesses but a lower use of child health services. To lower childhood morbidity and mortality in the besieged area, such as Tigray, local to global actors need to get coordinated and warrying parties should stop weaponization of vaccination healthcare services.

Poliovirus Immunity among Children Aged 6-11 and 36-48 Months in 14 Polio High-Risk Provinces of Afghanistan: A Health-Facility-Based Study

Afghanistan is one of two countries where wild poliovirus (WPV) type 1 remains endemic. We conducted a facility-based cross-sectional survey of antipoliovirus antibodies in children in 14 provinces of Afghanistan. The provinces were selected based on programmatic priorities for polio eradication. Children aged 6–11 and 36–48 months attending outpatient clinics were enrolled in the study. We collected venous blood, isolated serum, and conducted neutralization assays to detect poliovirus neutralizing antibodies. A total of 2086 children from the 14 provinces were enrolled. Among the enrolled children, 44.3% were girls; the median age in the 6–11-month group was 9.4 months, and in the 36–48-month group, it was 41.8 months. The most common spoken language was Pashtu (70.8%). Eighty-two percent of children were fully immunized against all the diseases in the vaccination schedule of Afghanistan. In the children aged 6–11 months, seroprevalence to poliovirus type 1 (PV1) was 96.5% and seroprevalence to poliovirus type 3 (PV3) was 93%; in children aged 36–48 months, seroprevalence to PV1 was 99.5% and to PV3 was 98%. Antipoliovirus antibody prevalence for poliovirus type 2 (PV2) was 70.5% in the younger group compared with 90.9% in the older children. Children from Herat and Laghman provinces had almost 100% seroprevalence to PV1, and other provinces also had high prevalence, ranging from 92.0% to 99.0%. A similar finding was seen for antibodies against PV3, ranging from 88% to 100% by province. On the contrary, antibodies to PV2 were low, ranging from 53% for children in the Khost province to around 89% in Kunduz. There was a cluster of 18 seronegative children in the Nuristan province. Overall, the polio eradication program of Afghanistan has been successful in achieving high seroprevalence of poliovirus neutralizing antibodies in the parts of the country included in this study.

A Historical Review of Military Medical Strategies for Fighting Infectious Diseases: From Battlefields to Global Health

The environmental conditions generated by war and characterized by poverty, undernutrition, stress, difficult access to safe water and food as well as lack of environmental and personal hygiene favor the spread of many infectious diseases. Epidemic typhus, plague, malaria, cholera, typhoid fever, hepatitis, tetanus, and smallpox have nearly constantly accompanied wars, frequently deeply conditioning the outcome of battles/wars more than weapons and military strategy. At the end of the nineteenth century, with the birth of bacteriology, military medical researchers in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France were active in discovering the etiological agents of some diseases and in developing preventive vaccines. Emil von Behring, Ronald Ross and Charles Laveran, who were or served as military physicians, won the first, the second, and the seventh Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for discovering passive anti-diphtheria/tetanus immunotherapy and for identifying mosquito Anopheline as a malaria vector and plasmodium as its etiological agent, respectively. Meanwhile, Major Walter Reed in the United States of America discovered the mosquito vector of yellow fever, thus paving the way for its prevention by vector control. In this work, the military relevance of some vaccine-preventable and non-vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, as well as of biological weapons, and the military contributions to their control will be described. Currently, the civil-military medical collaboration is getting closer and becoming interdependent, from research and development for the prevention of infectious diseases to disasters and emergencies management, as recently demonstrated in Ebola and Zika outbreaks and the COVID-19 pandemic, even with the high biocontainment aeromedical evacuation, in a sort of global health diplomacy.

Exposure to conflicts and the continuum of maternal healthcare: Analyses of pooled cross-sectional data for 452,192 women across 49 countries and 82 surveys

BACKGROUND

Violent conflicts are observed in many parts of the world and have profound impacts on the lives of exposed individuals. The limited evidence available from specific country or region contexts suggest that conflict exposure may reduce health service utilization and have adverse affects on health. This study focused on identifying the association between conflict exposure and continuum of care (CoC) services that are crucial for achieving improvements in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health and nutrition (RMNCHN).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We combined data from 2 sources, the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset, for a sample of 452,192 women across 49 countries observed over the period 1997 to 2018. We utilized 2 consistent measures of conflict-incidence and intensity-and analyzed their association with maternal CoC in 4 key components: (i) at least 1 antenatal care (ANC) visit; (ii) 4 or more ANC visits; (iii) 4 or more ANC visits and institutional delivery; and (iv) 4 or more ANC visits, institutional delivery, and receipt of postnatal care (PNC) either for the mother or the child within 48 hours after birth. To identify the association between conflict exposure and components of CoC, we estimated binary logistic regressions, controlling for a large set of individual and household-level characteristics and year-of-survey and country/province fixed-effects. This empirical setup allows us to draw comparisons among observationally similar women residing in the same locality, thereby mitigating the concerns over unobserved heterogeneity. Around 39.6% (95% CI: 39.5% to 39.7%) of the sample was exposed to some form of violent conflict at the time of their pregnancy during the study period (2003 to 2018). Although access to services decreased for each additional component of CoC in maternal healthcare for all women, the dropout rate was significantly higher among women who have been exposed to conflict, relative to those who have not had such exposure. From logistic regression estimates, we observed that relative to those without exposure to conflict, the odds of utilization of each of the components of CoC was lower among those women who were exposed to at least 1 violent conflict. We estimated odds ratios of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82 to 0.91, p < 0.001) for at least 1 ANC; 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91 to 0.98, p < 0.005) for 4 or more ANC; and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89 to 0.96, p < 0.001) for 4 or more ANC and institutional delivery. We showed that both the incidence of exposure to conflict as well as its intensity have profound negative implications for CoC. Study limitations include the following: (1) We could not extend the CoC scale beyond PNC due to inconsistent definitions and the lack of availability of data for all 49 countries across time. (2) The measure of conflict intensity used in this study is based on the number of deaths due to the absence of information on other types of conflict-related harms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that conflict exposure is statistically significantly and negatively associated with utilization of maternal CoC services, in each component of the CoC scale. These findings have highlighted the challenges in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3 in conflict settings, and the need for more concerted efforts in ensuring CoC, to mitigate its negative implications on maternal and child health.

Eradicating polio in Pakistan: a systematic review of programs and policies

Introduction: Established in 1994, Pakistan's polio program demonstrated early success. However, despite over 120 supplementary immunization activities in the last decade, polio eradication efforts in Pakistan have been unable to achieve their objective of halting polio transmission. Variable governance, and inconsistent leadership and accountability have hindered the success of the polio program and the quality of the campaigns. Insecurity and terrorism has interrupted polio activities, and community fears and misbeliefs about polio vaccinations continue to persist.Areas covered: The article consists of a systematic review of the barriers and facilitators associated with the delivery of polio eradication activities in Pakistan. We also provide a comprehensive review of the policy and programmatic decisions made by the Pakistan Polio Programme since 1994. Searches were conducted on Embase and Medline databases and 25 gray literature sources.Expert opinion: Polio eradication efforts must be integrated with other preventive health services, particularly immunization services. Addressing the underlying causes of polio refusals including underdevelopment and social exclusion will help counteract resistance to polio vaccination. Achieving polio eradication will require building health systems that provide comprehensive community-centered care, and improving governance and systems of accountability.

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children

Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women's and children's mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

Armed conflict, a neglected determinant of childhood vaccination: some children are left behind

Vaccination is an indisputable intervention that has tremendously mitigated the global burden of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). The number of armed conflicts globally seems to be at an all-time high, with devastating effects on vaccination coverage. This paper will examine how armed conflicts affect childhood vaccination and lead to the reemergence and spread of VPDs. Unarguably, socioeconomic factors, population demographics, the apparent long vaccination timetable, multiple vaccine doses, lack of trust in vaccination processes and the rumor of the adverse effects of some vaccines unnerve some parents and create a puzzle. By bringing under the global floodlight, the impact of armed conflicts which contextually affect vaccination coverage, this article will help strengthen the advocacy for vaccination, and call for the fortification of existing treaties on the rule of engagement during conflicts. In order to eliminate or eradicate VPDs, strategies to reach children that are left behind during conflicts is paramount.

Community engagement and integrated health and polio immunisation campaigns in conflict-affected areas of Pakistan: a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Pakistan faces huge challenges in eradicating polio due to widespread poliovirus transmission and security challenges. Innovative interventions are urgently needed to strengthen community buy-in, to increase the coverage of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and other routine immunisations, and to enhance immunity through the introduction of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in combination with OPV. We aimed to evaluate the acceptability and effect on immunisation coverage of an integrated strategy for community engagement and maternal and child health immunisation campaigns in insecure and conflict-affected polio-endemic districts of Pakistan.

METHODS

We did a community-based three-arm cluster randomised trial in healthy children aged 1 month to 5 years that resided within the study sites in three districts of Pakistan at high risk of polio. Clusters were randomly assigned by a computer algorithm using restricted randomisation in blocks of 20 by an external statistician (1:1:1) to receive routine polio programme activities (control, arm A), additional interventions with community outreach and mobilisation using an enhanced communication package and provision of short-term preventive maternal and child health services and routine immunisation (health camps), including OPV (arm B), or all interventions of arm B with additional provision of IPV delivered at the maternal and child health camps (arm C). An independent team conducted surveys at baseline, endline, and after each round of supplementary immunisation activity for acceptability and effect. The primary outcome measures for the study were coverage of OPV, IPV, and routine extended programme on immunisation vaccines and changes in the proportion of unvaccinated and fully vaccinated children. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01908114.

FINDINGS

Between June 4, 2013, and May 31, 2014, 387 clusters were randomised (131 to arm A, 127 to arm B, and 129 to arm C). At baseline, 28 760 children younger than 5 years were recorded in arm A, 30 098 in arm B, and 29 126 in arm C. 359 clusters remained in the trial until the end (116 in arm A, 120 in arm B, and 123 in arm C; with 23 334 children younger than 5 years in arm A, 26 110 in arm B, and 25 745 in arm C). The estimated OPV coverage was 75% in arm A compared with 82% in arm B (difference vs arm A 6·6%; 95% CI 4·8-8·3) and 84% in arm C (8·5%, 6·8-10·1; overall p<0·0001). The mean proportion of routine vaccine doses received by children younger than 24 months of age was 43% in arm A, 52% in arm B (9%, 7-11) and 54% in arm C (11%, 9-13; overall p<0·0001). No serious adverse events requiring hospitalisation were reported after immunisation.

INTERPRETATION

Despite the challenges associated with the polio end-game in high-risk, conflict-affected areas of Pakistan, a strategy of community mobilisation and targeted community-based health and immunisation camps during polio immunisation campaigns was successful in increasing vaccine coverage, including polio vaccine coverage.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Insecurity, polio vaccination rates, and polio incidence in northwest Pakistan

Pakistan is one of three countries in which endemic transmission of poliovirus has never been stopped. Insecurity is often cited but poorly studied as a barrier to eradicating polio. We analyzed routinely collected health data from 32 districts of northwest Pakistan and constructed an index of insecurity based on journalistic reports of the monthly number of deaths and injuries resulting from conflict-related security incidents. The primary outcomes were the monthly incidence of paralytic polio cases within each district between 2007 and 2014 and the polio vaccination percentage from 666 district-level vaccination campaigns between 2007 and 2009, targeting ∼5.7 million children. Multilevel Poisson regression controlling for time and district fixed effects was used to model the association between insecurity, vaccinator access, vaccination rates, and polio incidence. The number of children inaccessible to vaccinators was 19.7% greater (95% CI: 19.2-20.2%), and vaccination rates were 5.3% lower (95% CI: 5.2-5.3%) in "high-insecurity" campaigns compared with "secure" campaigns. The unadjusted mean vaccination rate was 96.3% (SD = 8.6) in secure campaigns and 88.3% (SD = 19.2) in high-insecurity campaigns. Polio incidence was 73.0% greater (95% CI: 30-131%) during high-insecurity months (unadjusted mean = 0.13 cases per million people, SD = 0.71) compared with secure months (unadjusted mean = 1.23 cases per million people, SD = 4.28). Thus, insecurity was associated with reduced vaccinator access, reduced polio vaccination, and increased polio incidence in northwest Pakistan. These findings demonstrate that insecurity is an important obstacle to global polio eradication.

Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model

Background

After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak.

Methods

Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features.

Results

Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission.

Conclusions

Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

Country-level predictors of vaccination coverage and inequalities in Gavi-supported countries

BACKGROUND

Important inequalities in childhood vaccination coverage persist between countries and population groups. Understanding why some countries achieve higher and more equitable levels of coverage is crucial to redress these inequalities. In this study, we explored the country-level determinants of (1) coverage of the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis- (DTP3) containing vaccine and (2) within-country inequalities in DTP3 coverage in 45 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

METHODS

We used data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 2005 and 2014. We measured national DTP3 coverage and the slope index of inequality in DTP3 coverage with respect to household wealth, maternal education, and multidimensional poverty. We collated data on country health systems, health financing, governance and geographic and sociocultural contexts from published sources. We used meta-regressions to assess the relationship between these country-level factors and variations in DTP3 coverage and inequalities. To validate our findings, we repeated these analyses for coverage with measles-containing vaccine (MCV).

RESULTS

We found considerable heterogeneity in DTP3 coverage and in the magnitude of inequalities across countries. Results for MCV were consistent with those from DTP3. Political stability, gender equality and smaller land surface were important predictors of higher and more equitable levels of DTP3 coverage. Inequalities in DTP3 coverage were also lower in countries receiving more external resources for health, with lower rates of out-of-pocket spending and with higher national coverage. Greater government spending on heath and lower linguistic fractionalization were also consistent with better vaccination outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Improving vaccination coverage and reducing inequalities requires that policies and programs address critical social determinants of health including geographic and social exclusion, gender inequality and the availability of financial protection for health. Further research should investigate the mechanisms contributing to these associations.

Why have the majority of recent polio cases occurred in countries affected by Islamist militancy? A historical comparative analysis of the political determinants of polio in Nigeria, Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria

This article aims to understand why the last few areas where polio remains are affected by armed conflicts involving militant organizations that use Islam to legitimize their activities. The first section critically analyses the argument that Muslims' animosity towards polio vaccination programmes is a consequence of their irrational, backward, anti-Western theology. This argument is depoliticizing, ahistorical and orientalist. Moreover, it does not explain why Islamist militant groups' attitudes to polio vaccination campaigns vary between countries. The second section analyses official documents, newspaper articles, interviews and historical and ethnographic accounts to understand the relationship between Islamist militant groups and polio in five countries - Nigeria, Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria - that account for 95% of the world's polio cases since 2012. I demonstrate that specific political grievances related to the postcolonial state and/or foreign military intervention help to explain variations in militant groups' attitudes to polio vaccination programmes. The paper concludes by considering the policy implications of the analysis. Improved access for polio vaccinators is not predicated on military victory against the militants but securing support of de facto political leaders. This can be achieved by developing a better understanding of the specific sociopolitical contexts in which immunization programmes operate.

Public health response to the silent reintroduction of wild poliovirus to Israel, 2013-2014

During 2013/14, Israel witnessed the silent reintroduction and sustained transmission of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) detected through routine environmental surveillance performed on sewage samples. The public health response to silent poliovirus transmission in a population with high inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) coverage poses an emerging challenge towards the 'End Game' of global poliovirus eradication. This paper reviews the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication aspects of this poliovirus incident. Special emphasis is placed on the use of scientific data generated in the risk assessment phase to inform the public health response. Reintroducing a live vaccine in supplemental immunization activities in response to transmission of WPV or vaccine-derived poliovirus should be considered close to the 'End Game' of polio eradication, especially if targeting the population at risk is feasible. Such circumstances require a comprehensive contingency plan that will support the generation of important public health evidence at the risk assessment stage, thereby allowing to tailor the risk management approaches and underpin appropriate risk communication.

Eradicating polio in Pakistan: an analysis of the challenges and solutions to this security and health issue

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988 the global incidence of poliomyelitis has fallen by nearly 99 %. From a situation where wild type poliovirus was endemic in 125 countries across five continents, transmission is now limited to regions of just three countries – Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. A sharp increase in Pakistan’s poliomyelitis cases in 2014 prompted the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee to declare the situation a ‘public health emergency of international concern’. Global polio eradication hinges on Pakistan’s ability to address the religious, political and socioeconomic barriers to immunisation; including discrepancies in vaccine coverage, a poor health infrastructure, and conflict in polio-endemic regions of the country. This analysis provides an overview of the GPEI, focusing on the historical and contemporary challenges facing Pakistan’s polio eradication programme and the impact of conflict and insecurity, and sheds light on strategies to combat vaccine hesitancy, engage local communities and build on recent progress towards polio eradication in Pakistan.

Eradication and Current Status of Poliomyelitis in Pakistan: Ground Realities

Pakistan is among the last three countries along with Afghanistan and Nigeria, where polio virus is still endemic. More or less, with some fluctuations, numbers of reported cases in the past few years have shown a rising trend. Year 2014 pushed the country into the deep sea of difficulties, as number of cases rose to red alert level of 328. Security situation has adversely affected the whole immunization coverage campaign. In a country where 40 polio vaccinators have been killed since 2012, such a big number of cases is not a surprising outcome. Worse perception of parents about polio vaccine as in Karachi and FATA, the high risk zones, makes 100% coverage a dream. Minor and perhaps delayed payments to polio workers make them frustrated, resulting in decline of trained manpower for vaccination. Strong implementation of policies is required and those found guilty of attack on polio workers need to be punished. Targeted community awareness programme, strong surveillance network, and involvement of influential religious entities can help to root out polio disease from country. Present review is aimed at analyzing all barriers on the road to success in eradication of polio from Pakistan.

Crippling Violence: Conflict and Incident Polio in Afghanistan

BACKGROUND

Designing effective public health campaigns in areas of armed conflict requires a nuanced understanding of how violence impacts the epidemiology of the disease in question.

METHODS

We examine the geographical relationship between violence (represented by the location of detonated Improvised Explosive Devices) and polio incidence by generating maps of IEDs and polio incidence during 2010, and by comparing the mean number of IED detonations in polio high-risk districts with non polio high-risk districts during 2004-2009.

RESULTS

We demonstrate a geographic relationship between IED violence and incident polio. Districts that have high-risk for polio have highly statistically significantly greater mean numbers of IEDs than non polio high-risk districts (p-values 0.0010-0.0404).

CONCLUSIONS

The geographic relationship between armed conflict and polio incidence provides valuable insights as to how to plan a vaccination campaign in violent contexts, and allows us to anticipate incident polio in the regions of armed conflict. Such information permits vaccination planners to engage interested armed combatants to co-develop strategies to mitigate the effects of violence on polio.

Applying the Concept of Peptide Uniqueness to Anti-Polio Vaccination

Background. Although rare, adverse events may associate with anti-poliovirus vaccination thus possibly hampering global polio eradication worldwide. Objective. To design peptide-based anti-polio vaccines exempt from potential cross-reactivity risks and possibly able to reduce rare potential adverse events such as the postvaccine paralytic poliomyelitis due to the tendency of the poliovirus genome to mutate. Methods. Proteins from poliovirus type 1, strain Mahoney, were analyzed for amino acid sequence identity to the human proteome at the pentapeptide level, searching for sequences that (1) have zero percent of identity to human proteins, (2) are potentially endowed with an immunologic potential, and (3) are highly conserved among poliovirus strains. Results. Sequence analyses produced a set of consensus epitopic peptides potentially able to generate specific anti-polio immune responses exempt from cross-reactivity with the human host. Conclusion. Peptide sequences unique to poliovirus proteins and conserved among polio strains might help formulate a specific and universal anti-polio vaccine able to react with multiple viral strains and exempt from the burden of possible cross-reactions with human proteins. As an additional advantage, using a peptide-based vaccine instead of current anti-polio DNA vaccines would eliminate the rare post-polio poliomyelitis cases and other disabling symptoms that may appear following vaccination.

A space-time analysis of the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary: a resource for analyzing the conflict-health nexus

Background

Although it is widely acknowledged that areas of conflict are associated with a high health burden, from a geospatial perspective it is difficult to establish these patterns at fine scales because of a lack of data. The release of the “WikiLeaks” Afghan War Diary (AWD) provides an interesting opportunity to advance analysis and theory into this interrelationship.

Methods

This paper will apply two different space time analyses to identify patterns of improvised explosive devices (IED) detonations for the period of 2004 to 2009 in Afghanistan.

Results

There is considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in IED explosions, with concentrations often following transportation links. The results are framed in terms of a resource for subsequent analyses to other existing health research in Afghanistan. To facilitate this, in our discussion we present a Google Earth file of overlapping rates that can be distributed to any researcher interested in combining his/her fine scale health data with a similarly granular layer of violence.

Conclusion

The release of the AWD presents a previously unavailable opportunity to consider how spatially detailed data about violence can be incorporated into understanding, and predicting, health related spillover effects. The AWD can enrich previous research conducted on Afghanistan, and provide a justification for future “official” data sharing at appropriately fine scales.

Islamist insurgency and the war against polio: a cross-national analysis of the political determinants of polio

Background

There is widespread agreement that civil war obstructs efforts to eradicate polio. It is suggested that Islamist insurgents have a particularly negative effect on vaccination programmes, but this claim is controversial.

Methods

We analyse cross-national data for the period 2003–14 using negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between Islamist and non-Islamist insurgency and the global distribution of polio. The dependent variable is the annual number of polio cases in a country according to the WHO. Insurgency is operationalized as armed conflict between the state and an insurgent organization resulting in ≥25 battle deaths per year according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme. Insurgencies are divided into Islamist and non-Islamist insurgencies. We control for other possible explanatory variables.

Results

Islamist insurgency did not have a significant positive relationship with polio throughout the whole period. But in the past few years – since the assassination of Osama bin Laden in 2011– Islamist insurgency has had a strong effect on where polio cases occur. The evidence for a relationship between non-Islamist insurgency and polio is less compelling and where there is a relationship it is either spurious or driven by ecological fallacy.

Conclusions

Only particular forms of internal armed conflict – those prosecuted by Islamist insurgents – explain the current global distribution of polio. The variation over time in the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio suggests that Islamist insurgent’s hostility to polio vaccinations programmes is not the result of their theology, as the core tenets of Islam have not changed over the period of the study. Rather, our analysis indicates that it is a plausibly a reaction to the counterinsurgency strategies used against Islamist insurgents. The assassination of Osama bin Laden and the use of drone strikes seemingly vindicated Islamist insurgents’ suspicions that immunization drives are a cover for espionage activities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12992-015-0123-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Israeli public health response to wild poliovirus importation

In 2013, a silent wild poliovirus type 1 importation and sustained transmission event occurred in southern Israel. With the aim of preventing clinical poliomyelitis and ensuring virus re-elimination, the public health response to the importation event included intensification of clinical and environmental surveillance activities, enhancement of vaccine coverage, and supplemental immunisation with a bivalent oral polio vaccine against wild poliovirus types 1 and 3. A national campaign launched in August, 2013, resulted in vaccination of 943,587 children younger than 10 years (79% of the eligible target population). Expanded environmental surveillance (roughly 80% population coverage) documented a gradual disappearance of wild poliovirus type 1 in the country from September, 2013, to April, 2014. No paralytic poliomyelitis case was detected. A prompt extensive and coordinated national public health response, implemented on the basis of evidence-based decision making, successfully contained this serious importation and sustained transmission event of wild poliovirus to Israel. On April 28, 2015, WHO officially declared Israel as a polio-free country.

"Polio Eradication" Game May Increase Public Interest in Global Health

BACKGROUND

Interactive games that highlight global health challenges and solutions are a potential tool for increasing interest in global health. To test this hypothesis, we developed an interactive "Polio Eradication" (PE) game and evaluated whether playing or watching was associated with increased public interest in global health.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The PE game is a life-size, human board game that simulates PE efforts. Four players-a researcher, a transportation expert, a local community coordinator, and a healthcare worker-collaborate as an interdisciplinary team to help limit ongoing and future polio outbreaks in Pakistan, represented on the game board. Participants who played or observed the game and those who did not participate in the game, but visited noninteractive global health exhibits, completed a survey on participation outcomes. We used relative risk regression to examine associations between cofactors and change in global health interest.

RESULTS

Three variables predicted increased global health interest among the game participants: Having little or no previous global health knowledge prior to playing the game (risk ratio [RR]=1.28; 95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.45), not currently being involved in global health (RR=1.41; 95 percent CI, 1.07-1.85), and visiting Seattle (RR=1.25; 95 percent CI, 1.04-1.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a hands-on, interactive game may increase the public's interest in global health, particularly among those with minimal previous knowledge of or involvement in global health activities.

Political will and international collaborative frameworks in infectious diseases

The last few decades have been marked by a rapid expansion in the world?s population, along with an increasingly dynamic mobility of individuals. This accelerated global inter-connectedness enabled microorganisms to reach virtually any location worldwide more rapidly and efficiently than ever before, reshaping the global dynamics of pathogens. As a result, a local infectious disease outbreak anywhere in the world may almost instantaneously assume global dimensions, and should therefore be considered a global priority. The history of several infectious diseases illustrates that in addition to prophylactic and therapeutic medical interventions, the interplay of social, economic, and political factors makes a fundamental contribution to the outcome of infectious disease outbreaks. Furthermore, this multi- and cross-disciplinary interconnectedness is a key determinant of the outcome of efforts to eradicate vaccine-preventable infectious diseases. A combined framework that incorporates teachings provided by previous outbreaks, and integrates medical and biomedical interventions with contributions made by social, economic, and political factors, emerges as vital requirement of successful global public health initiatives.

Alternative inactivated poliovirus vaccines adjuvanted with Quillaja brasiliensis or Quil-a saponins are equally effective in inducing specific immune responses

Inactivated polio vaccines (IPV) have an important role at the final stages of poliomyelitis eradication programs, reducing the risks associated with the use of attenuated polio vaccine (OPV). An affordable option to enhance vaccine immunogenicity and reduce costs of IPV may be the use of an effective and renewable adjuvant. In the present study, the adjuvant activity of aqueous extract (AE) and saponin fraction QB-90 from Quillaja brasiliensis using poliovirus antigen as model were analyzed and compared to a preparation adjuvanted with Quil-A, a well-known saponin-based commercial adjuvant. Experimental vaccines were prepared with viral antigen plus saline (control), Quil-A (50 µg), AE (400 µg) or QB-90 (50 µg). Sera from inoculated mice were collected at days 0, 28, 42 and 56 post-inoculation of the first dose of vaccine. Serum levels of specific IgG, IgG1 and IgG2a were significantly enhanced by AE, QB-90 and Quil-A compared to control group on day 56. The magnitude of enhancement was statistically equivalent for QB-90 and Quil-A. The cellular response was evaluated through DTH and analysis of IFN-γ and IL-2 mRNA levels using in vitro reestimulated splenocytes. Results indicated that AE and QB-90 were capable of stimulating the generation of Th1 cells against the administered antigen to the same extent as Quil-A. Mucosal immune response was enhanced by the vaccine adjuvanted with QB-90 as demonstrated by increases of specific IgA titers in bile, feces and vaginal washings, yielding comparable or higher titers than Quil-A. The results obtained indicate that saponins from Q. brasiliensis are potent adjuvants of specific cellular and humoral immune responses and represent a viable option to Quil-A.