Trajectory of Viral RNA Load Among Persons With Incident SARS-CoV-2 G614 Infection (Wuhan Strain) in Association With COVID-19 Symptom Onset and Severity

A joint Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating SARS-CoV-2 genomic and subgenomic RNA viral dynamics and seroconversion

Understanding the viral dynamics of and natural immunity to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is crucial for devising better therapeutic and prevention strategies for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model that jointly estimates the genomic RNA viral load, the subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) viral load (correlated to active viral replication), and the rate and timing of seroconversion (correlated to presence of antibodies). Our proposed method accounts for the dynamical relationship and correlation structure between the two types of viral load, allows for borrowing of information between viral load and antibody data, and identifies potential correlates of viral load characteristics and propensity for seroconversion. We demonstrate the features of the joint model through application to the COVID-19 post-exposure prophylaxis study and conduct a cross-validation exercise to illustrate the model's ability to impute the sgRNA viral trajectories for people who only had genomic RNA viral load data.

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 self-test availability and modifications in test-strategy on overall test uptake using an experimental vignette study

To inform future Dutch COVID-19 testing policies we did an experimental vignette study to investigate whether inclusion of the less reliable lateral flow tests (self-tests) would change test-uptake sufficiently to improve population-level test sensitivity. A representative sample (n = 3,270) participated in a 2-by-2 online experiment to evaluate the effects of test-guidelines including self-testing advice (IV1), and the effects of self-test availability (IV2) on expected test uptake (PCR test, self-test or no test) and sensitivity of the overall test strategy (primary outcome). Across four scenarios, changing test advice did not affect expected testing behaviour. Self-test availability, however, increased the timeliness of testing, the number of people testing, and overall test strategy sensitivity. Based on these findings, we recommend that (national) policy facilitates a supply of self-tests at home, for example through free and pro-active distribution of test-kits during a pandemic. This could substantially enhance the chances of timely detecting and isolating patients.

Antiviral effectiveness and survival correlation of azvudine and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in elderly severe patients with COVID-19: a retrospective real-world study

Background

Azvudine and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir are approved to treat mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adults with a high risk for progression to severe infection. We sought to compare the antiviral effectiveness and clinical outcomes of elderly severe patients with COVID-19 receiving these two antiviral agents.

Methods

In this observational study, we identified 249 elderly patients with severe COVID-19 infection who were admitted to the Second Medical Center of the People's Liberation Army General Hospital from December 2022 to January 2023, including 128 azvudine recipients, 66 nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients and 55 patients not received antiviral treatments. We compared the cycle threshold (Ct) value dynamic change of all three groups. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of disease progression, including all-cause death, intensive care unit admission, and initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation. The outcomes of all enrolled patients were followed up from the electronic medical record system. Kaplan-Meier and Cox risk proportional regression analyses were used to compare the clinical outcomes of all three groups. To more directly compare the effectiveness of the two antiviral drugs, we performed propensity-score matching between the two antiviral groups and compared antiviral efficacy and clinical outcomes in the matched population.

Findings

Among 249 patients (mean age, 91.41 years), 77 patients died during the follow-up period. When compared to patients who did not receive any antivirals, neither nirmatrelvir/ritonavir nor azvudine demonstrated a survival benefit. The Cox analysis of the all-cause death of the three groups showed that the risk of death was 0.730 (0.423-1.262) in the azvudine group 0.802 (0.435-1.480) and in the nirmatrelvir/ritonavir group compared with the non-antiviral group. After propensity score matching, we included 58 azvudine recipients and 58 nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients. The fitted curve of the Ct value after matching illustrated that the rate of viral decline in the early stage of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment seems to surpass that of azvudine, but there was no statistical significance. Azvudine was seemly associated with a lower risk of composite outcomes (HR:1.676, 95% CI:0.805-3.488) and short-term all-cause death (HR: 1.291, 95%CI: 0.546-3.051).

Interpretation

Patients who received azvudine have a similar antiviral effectiveness and survival curve trend compared to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. In this limited series, antiviral treatment was not associated with a significant clinical benefit. This lack of clinical benefit might be attributed to potential bias.

Funding

This study was supported by the "National Key R&D Program of China" (Funding No. 2020YFC2008900) and the National Defense Science and Technology Innovation Special Zone Project (223-CXCY-N101-07-18-01).

Infection-mediated immune response in SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and implications for next-generation COVID-19 vaccine development

Post-vaccination infections, termed breakthrough infections, occur after the virus infection overcomes the vaccine-induced immune barrier. During the early stages of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron wave, high serum-neutralizing antibody titers against the Omicron variant were detected in individuals with breakthrough infections as well as those who received a third vaccine dose (i.e., booster recipients). Additionally, these cases indicated that Omicron antigens triggered an immune response that differed from that triggered by the vaccine strain before analysis of the effectiveness of new vaccines updated for the Omicron variants. Moreover, the magnitude and breadth of neutralizing antibody titers induced by breakthrough infections are correlated with the upper respiratory viral load at diagnosis and the duration between vaccination and infection, respectively. Unlike booster vaccine recipients, patients with breakthrough infections have varying durations between vaccination and infection. Accordingly, optimal booster vaccination intervals may be estimated based on the cross-neutralizing antibody response induced over time. Examination of breakthrough infection cases has provided valuable insights that could not be yielded by only examining vaccinated individuals alone. These insights include estimates of vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants and the various factors related to the clinical status. This review describes the immune response elicited by breakthrough infections; specifically, it discusses factors that affect the magnitude and breadth of serum antibody titers as well as the appropriate booster vaccination strategy. This review provides key aspects that could contribute to developing next-generation COVID-19 vaccines through breakthrough infection cases.

The New Normal: Delayed Peak SARS-CoV-2 Viral Loads Relative to Symptom Onset and Implications for COVID-19 Testing Programs

BACKGROUND

Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, peak viral loads coincided with symptom onset. We hypothesized that in a highly immune population, symptom onset might occur earlier in infection, coinciding with lower viral loads.

METHODS

We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza A viral loads relative to symptom duration in symptomatic adults (≥16 years) presenting for testing in Georgia (4/2022-4/2023; Omicron variant predominant). Participants provided symptom duration and recent testing history. Nasal swabs were tested by Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay and cycle threshold (Ct) values recorded. Nucleoprotein concentrations in SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples were measured by single molecule array. To estimate hypothetical antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag RDT) sensitivity on each day after symptom onset, percentages of individuals with Ct value ≤30 or ≤25 were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 348 newly-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive individuals (65.5% women, median 39.2 years), 317/348 (91.1%) had a history of vaccination, natural infection, or both. By both Ct value and antigen concentration measurements, median viral loads rose from the day of symptom onset and peaked on the fourth/fifth day. Ag RDT sensitivity estimates were 30.0%-60.0% on the first day, 59.2%-74.8% on the third day, and 80.0%-93.3% on the fourth day of symptoms.In 74 influenza A PCR-positive individuals (55.4% women; median 35.0 years), median influenza viral loads peaked on the second day of symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

In a highly immune adult population, median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads peaked around the fourth day of symptoms. Influenza A viral loads peaked soon after symptom onset. These findings have implications for ongoing use of Ag RDTs for COVID-19 and influenza.

Integration of individualized and population-level molecular epidemiology data to model COVID-19 outcomes

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with enhanced transmissibility and immune escape have emerged periodically throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but the impact of these variants on disease severity has remained unclear. In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we examined the association between SARS-CoV-2 clade and patient outcome over a two-year period in Chicago, Illinois. Between March 2020 and March 2022, 14,252 residual diagnostic specimens were collected from SARS-CoV-2-positive inpatients and outpatients alongside linked clinical and demographic metadata, of which 2,114 were processed for viral whole-genome sequencing. When controlling for patient demographics and vaccination status, several viral clades were associated with risk for hospitalization, but this association was negated by the inclusion of population-level confounders, including case count, sampling bias, and shifting standards of care. These data highlight the importance of integrating non-virological factors into disease severity and outcome models for the accurate assessment of patient risk.

Nasopharyngeal Viral Load Is the Major Driver of Incident Antibody Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background

Virologic determinants of seroconversion to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were defined in a post hoc analysis of prospectively studied vaccine- and infection-naïve individuals at high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

This phase 3 COVID-19 prevention trial (NCT04452318) with casirivimab and imdevimab was conducted in July 2020-February 2021, before widespread vaccine availability. Placebo-treated participants who were uninfected (SARS-CoV-2 quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [RT-qPCR] negative) and seronegative were assessed weekly for 28 days (efficacy assessment period [EAP]) for COVID-19 symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-qPCR of nasopharyngeal swab samples and for serostatus by antinucleocapsid immunoglobulin (Ig) G. Regression-based modeling, including causal mediation analysis, estimated the effects of viral load on seroconversion.

Results

Of 157/1069 (14.7%) uninfected and seronegative (for antispike IgG, antispike IgA, and antinucleocapsid IgG) participants who became infected during the EAP, 105 (65%) seroconverted. The mean (SD) maximum viral load of seroconverters was 7.23 (1.68) log10 copies/mL vs 4.8 (2.2) log10 copies/mL in those who remained seronegative; viral loads of ∼6.0 log10 copies/mL better predicted seroconversion. The mean of the maximum viral load was 7.11 log10 copies/mL in symptomatic participants vs 5.58 log10 copies/mL in asymptomatic participants. The mean duration of detectable viral load was longer in seroconverted vs seronegative participants: 3.24 vs 1.63 weeks.

Conclusions

Maximum SARS-CoV-2 viral load is a major driver of seroconversion and symptomatic COVID-19, with high viral loads (∼6.0 log10 copies/mL) better predicting seroconversion. Serology underestimates infection rates, incidence, and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Crowdsourcing temporal transcriptomic coronavirus host infection data: Resources, guide, and novel insights

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reawakened the need to rapidly understand the molecular etiologies, pandemic potential, and prospective treatments of infectious agents. The lack of existing data on SARS-CoV-2 hampered early attempts to treat severe forms of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) during the pandemic. This study coupled existing transcriptomic data from severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1) lung infection animal studies with crowdsourcing statistical approaches to derive temporal meta-signatures of host responses during early viral accumulation and subsequent clearance stages. Unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches identified top dysregulated genes and potential biomarkers (e.g. CXCL10, BEX2, and ADM). Temporal meta-signatures revealed distinct gene expression programs with biological implications to a series of host responses underlying sustained Cxcl10 expression and Stat signaling. Cell cycle switched from G1/G0 phase genes, early in infection, to a G2/M gene signature during late infection that correlated with the enrichment of DNA damage response and repair genes. The SARS-CoV-1 meta-signatures were shown to closely emulate human SARS-CoV-2 host responses from emerging RNAseq, single cell, and proteomics data with early monocyte-macrophage activation followed by lymphocyte proliferation. The circulatory hormone adrenomedullin was observed as maximally elevated in elderly patients who died from COVID-19. Stage-specific correlations to compounds with potential to treat COVID-19 and future coronavirus infections were in part validated by a subset of twenty-four that are in clinical trials to treat COVID-19. This study represents a roadmap to leverage existing data in the public domain to derive novel molecular and biological insights and potential treatments to emerging human pathogens.

Effects of COVID-19 infection in patients with autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis: a single-center study

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP) is a rare interstitial lung disease. COVID-19 is associated with worse prognosis in previous lung diseases patients. But the prognosis of aPAP patients after infection with COVID-19 is unclear. In December 2022, China experienced a large-scale outbreak of Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we aim to explore the clinical outcomes of aPAP patients infected with COVID-19.

RESULTS

A total of 39 aPAP patients were included in this study. 30.77% patients had a decrease in oxygen saturation after COVID-19 infection. We compared the two groups of patients with or without decreased oxygen saturation after COVID-19 infection and found that patients who had previous oxygen therapy (decreased oxygen saturation vs. non decreased oxygen saturation: 6/12 vs. 4/27, P = 0.043), with lower baseline arterial oxygen partial pressure (74.50 ± 13.61 mmHg vs. 86.49 ± 11.92 mmHg, P = 0.009), lower baseline DLCO/VA% [77.0 (74.3, 93.6) % vs. 89.5 (78.2, 97.4) %, P = 0.036], shorter baseline 6MWD [464 (406, 538) m vs. 532 (470, 575) m, P = 0.028], higher disease severity score (P = 0.017), were more likely to have decreased oxygen saturation after COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

aPAP patients with poor baseline respiration have a higher probability of hypoxia after COVID-19 infection, but fatal events were rare.

Molnupiravir Revisited-Critical Assessment of Studies in Animal Models of COVID-19

Molnupiravir, a prodrug known for its broad antiviral activity, has demonstrated efficacy in animal models of COVID-19, prompting clinical trials, in which initial results indicated a significant effect against the disease. However, subsequent clinical studies did not confirm these findings, leading to the refusal of molnupiravir for permanent market authorization in many countries. This report critically assessed 22 studies published in 18 reports that investigated the efficacy of molnupiravir in animal models of COVID-19, with the purpose of determining how well the design of these models informed human studies. We found that the administered doses of molnupiravir in most studies involving animal COVID-19 models were disproportionately higher than the dose recommended for human use. Specifically, when adjusted for body surface area, over half of the doses of molnupiravir used in the animal studies exceeded twice the human dose. Direct comparison of reported drug exposure across species after oral administration of molnupiravir indicated that the antiviral efficacy of the dose recommended for human use was underestimated in some animal models and overestimated in others. Frequently, molnupiravir was given prophylactically or shortly after SARS-CoV-2 inoculation in these models, in contrast to clinical trials where such timing is not consistently achieved. Furthermore, the recommended five-day treatment duration for humans was exceeded in several animal studies. Collectively, we suggest that design elements in the animal studies under examination contributed to a preference favoring molnupiravir, and thus inflated expectations for its efficacy against COVID-19. Addressing these elements may offer strategies to enhance the clinical efficacy of molnupiravir for the treatment of COVID-19. Such strategies include dose increment, early treatment initiation, administration by inhalation, and use of the drug in antiviral combination therapy.

Sensitivity of rapid antigen tests against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants

Rapid antigen tests (RATs) have become an invaluable tool for combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, concerns have been raised regarding the ability of existing RATs to effectively detect emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. We compared the performance of 10 commercially available, emergency use authorized RATs against the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants using both individual patient and serially diluted pooled clinical samples. The RATs exhibited lower sensitivity for Omicron samples when using PCR cycle threshold (CT) value (a rough proxy for RNA concentration) as the comparator. Interestingly, however, they exhibited similar sensitivity for Omicron and Delta samples when using quantitative antigen concentration as the comparator. We further found that the Omicron samples had lower ratios of antigen to RNA, which offers a potential explanation for the apparent lower sensitivity of RATs for that variant when using C T value as a reference. Our findings underscore the complexity in assessing RAT performance against emerging variants and highlight the need for ongoing evaluation in the face of changing population immunity and virus evolution.

Index cases first identified by nasal-swab rapid COVID-19 tests had more transmission to household contacts than cases identified by other test types

At-home rapid COVID-19 tests in the U.S. utilize nasal-swab specimens and require high viral loads to reliably give positive results. Longitudinal studies from the onset of infection have found infectious virus can present in oral specimens days before nasal. Detection and initiation of infection-control practices may therefore be delayed when nasal-swab rapid tests are used, resulting in greater transmission to contacts. We assessed whether index cases first identified by rapid nasal-swab COVID-19 tests had more transmission to household contacts than index cases who used other test types (tests with higher analytical sensitivity and/or non-nasal specimen types). In this observational cohort study, 370 individuals from 85 households with a recent COVID-19 case were screened at least daily by RT-qPCR on one or more self-collected upper-respiratory specimen types. A two-level random intercept model was used to assess the association between the infection outcome of household contacts and each covariable (household size, race/ethnicity, age, vaccination status, viral variant, infection-control practices, and whether a rapid nasal-swab test was used to initially identify the household index case). Transmission was quantified by adjusted secondary attack rates (aSAR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR). An aSAR of 53.6% (95% CI 38.8-68.3%) was observed among households where the index case first tested positive by a rapid nasal-swab COVID-19 test, which was significantly higher than the aSAR for households where the index case utilized another test type (27.2% 95% CI 19.5-35.0%, P = 0.003 pairwise comparisons of predictive margins). We observed an aOR of 4.90 (95% CI 1.65-14.56) for transmission to household contacts when a nasal-swab rapid test was used to identify the index case, compared to other test types. Use of nasal-swab rapid COVID-19 tests for initial detection of infection and initiation of infection control may be less effective at limiting transmission to household contacts than other test types.

Trajectory analyses to identify persistently low responders to COVID-19 vaccination in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a prospective multicentre controlled study, J-COMBAT

BACKGROUND

The degree of immune response to COVID-19 vaccination in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients based on actual changes in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres over time is unknown.

METHODS

Data were prospectively acquired at four predetermined time points before and after two vaccine doses in a multicentre observational controlled study. The primary outcome was humoral immune response and vaccination safety in IBD patients. We performed trajectory analysis to identify the degree of immune response and associated factors in IBD patients compared with controls.

RESULTS

Overall, 645 IBD patients and 199 control participants were analysed. At 3 months after the second vaccination, the seronegative proportions were 20.3% (combination of anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF]α and thiopurine) and 70.0% (triple combination including steroids), despite that 80.0% receiving the triple combination therapy were seropositive at 4 weeks after the second vaccination. Trajectory analyses indicated three degrees of change in immune response over time in IBD patients: high (57.7%), medium (35.6%), and persistently low (6.7%). In the control group, there was only one degree, which corresponded with IBD high responders. Older age, combined anti-TNFα and thiopurine (odds ratio [OR], 37.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.64-251.54), steroids (OR, 21.47; 95%CI, 5.47-84.26), and tofacitinib (OR, 10.66; 95%CI, 1.49-76.31) were factors associated with persistently low response. Allergy history (OR, 0.17; 95%CI, 0.04-0.68) was a negatively associated factor. Adverse reactions after the second vaccination were significantly fewer in IBD than controls (31.0% vs 59.8%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Most IBD patients showed a sufficient immune response to COVID-19 vaccination regardless of clinical factors. Assessment of changes over time is essential to optimize COVID-19 vaccination, especially in persistently low responders.

Epidemic dynamics with time-varying transmission risk reveal the role of disease stage-dependent infectiousness

A key characteristic of acute communicable diseases is the infectiousness that varies over time as the infection dynamics evolve within a host, which influences the risk of transmission in different stages of the disease. Despite the evidence of time-varying transmission risk, most dynamic models of epidemics assume a constant transmission rate during the infectious period. Recent work has shown the difference in epidemic dynamics when this assumption is relaxed and different transmission rates are used by discretizing the infectious period into multiple sub-periods. Here, we develop an age-structured model to integrate a continuous time-varying transmission risk, based on an established correlation between the viral dynamics and infectiousness profile. Taking into account the natural history and parameter estimates of COVID-19 caused by the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, we demonstrate the difference in temporal epidemic dynamics when a continuous time-varying transmission probability is used as compared to multiple constant transmission probabilities. Our results show a significant difference between the incidence curves in terms of the magnitude and peak time, even when the reproduction number and total number of infections are the same for continuous and discrete transmission probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the spurious outcome of preventing an epidemic through the isolation of infectious individuals when constant transmission probabilities are used, highlighting the importance of integrating a continuous time-dependent transmission parameter in dynamic models. These findings suggest a more cautious interpretation of model outcomes, especially those that are intended to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions for disease mitigation strategies.

Quantity of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies exhaled per minute during natural breathing over the course of COVID-19 infection

SARS-CoV-2 is spread through exhaled breath of infected individuals. A fundamental question in understanding transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is how much virus an individual is exhaling into the environment while they breathe, over the course of their infection. Research on viral load dynamics during COVID-19 infection has focused on internal swab specimens, which provide a measure of viral loads inside the respiratory tract, but not on breath. Therefore, the dynamics of viral shedding on exhaled breath over the course of infection are poorly understood. Here, we collected exhaled breath specimens from COVID-19 patients and used RTq-PCR to show that numbers of exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies during COVID-19 infection do not decrease significantly until day 8 from symptom-onset. COVID-19-positive participants exhaled an average of 80 SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA copies per minute during the first 8 days of infection, with significant variability both between and within individuals, including spikes over 800 copies a minute in some patients. After day 8, there was a steep drop to levels nearing the limit of detection, persisting for up to 20 days. We further found that levels of exhaled viral RNA increased with self-rated symptom-severity, though individual variation was high. Levels of exhaled viral RNA did not differ across age, sex, time of day, vaccination status or viral variant. Our data provide a fine-grained, direct measure of the number of SARS-CoV-2 viral copies exhaled per minute during natural breathing-including 312 breath specimens collected multiple times daily over the course of infection-in order to fill an important gap in our understanding of the time course of exhaled viral loads in COVID-19.

Daily SARS-CoV-2 Nasal Antigen Tests Miss Infected and Presumably Infectious People Due to Viral Load Differences among Specimen Types

In a recent household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2, we found extreme differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral loads among paired saliva, anterior nares swab (ANS), and oropharyngeal swab specimens collected from the same time point. We hypothesized these differences may hinder low-analytical-sensitivity assays (including antigen rapid diagnostic tests [Ag-RDTs]) by using a single specimen type (e.g., ANS) from reliably detecting infected and infectious individuals. We evaluated daily at-home ANS Ag-RDTs (Quidel QuickVue) in a cross-sectional analysis of 228 individuals and a longitudinal analysis (throughout infection) of 17 individuals enrolled early in the course of infection. Ag-RDT results were compared to reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) results and high, presumably infectious viral loads (in each, or any, specimen type). The ANS Ag-RDT correctly detected only 44% of time points from infected individuals on cross-sectional analysis, and this population had an inferred limit of detection of 7.6 × 106 copies/mL. From the longitudinal cohort, daily Ag-RDT clinical sensitivity was very low (<3%) during the early, preinfectious period of the infection. Further, the Ag-RDT detected ≤63% of presumably infectious time points. The poor observed clinical sensitivity of the Ag-RDT was similar to what was predicted based on quantitative ANS viral loads and the inferred limit of detection of the ANS Ag-RDT being evaluated, indicating high-quality self-sampling. Nasal Ag-RDTs, even when used daily, can miss individuals infected with the Omicron variant and even those presumably infectious. Evaluations of Ag-RDTs for detection of infected or infectious individuals should be compared with a composite (multispecimen) infection status to correctly assess performance. IMPORTANCE We reveal three findings from a longitudinal study of daily nasal antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) evaluated against SARS-CoV-2 viral load quantification in three specimen types (saliva, nasal swab, and throat swab) in participants enrolled at the incidence of infection. First, the evaluated Ag-RDT showed low (44%) clinical sensitivity for detecting infected persons at all infection stages. Second, the Ag-RDT poorly detected (≤63%) time points that participants had high and presumably infectious viral loads in at least one specimen type. This poor clinical sensitivity to detect infectious individuals is inconsistent with the commonly held view that daily Ag-RDTs have near-perfect detection of infectious individuals. Third, use of a combination nasal-throat specimen type was inferred by viral loads to significantly improve Ag-RDT performance to detect infectious individuals.

Symptom profiles of community cases infected by influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Respiratory viruses that were suppressed through previous lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic have recently started to co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the clinical characteristics and symptomatology of different respiratory viral infections can help address the challenges related to the identification of cases and the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants' evolutionary patterns. Flu Watch (2006-2011) and Virus Watch (2020-2022) are household community cohort studies monitoring the epidemiology of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2, in England and Wales. This study describes and compares the proportion of symptoms reported during illnesses infected by common respiratory viruses. The SARS-CoV-2 symptom profile increasingly resembles that of other respiratory viruses as new strains emerge. Increased cough, sore throat, runny nose, and sneezing are associated with the emergence of the Omicron strains. As SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, monitoring the evolution of its symptomatology associated with new variants will be critical for clinical surveillance.

Retrospective, Observational Studies for Estimating Vaccine Effects on the Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. Most of the evidence that COVID-19 vaccines also reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is based on retrospective, observational studies. Specifically, an increasing number of studies are evaluating vaccine effectiveness against the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 using data available in existing health-care databases or contact-tracing databases. Since these types of databases were designed for clinical diagnosis or management of COVID-19, they are limited in their ability to provide accurate information on infection, infection timing, and transmission events. We highlight challenges with using existing databases to identify transmission units and confirm potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission events. We discuss the impact of common diagnostic testing strategies, including event-prompted and infrequent testing, and illustrate their potential biases in estimating vaccine effectiveness against the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2. We articulate the need for prospective observational studies of vaccine effectiveness against the SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rate, and we provide design and reporting considerations for studies using retrospective databases.

Nucleocapsid protein binding DNA aptamers for detection of SARS-COV-2

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected millions of individuals and continues to be a major health concern worldwide. While reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction remains a reliable method for detecting infections, limitations of this technology, particularly cost and the requirement of a dedicated laboratory, prevent rapid viral monitoring. Antigen tests filled this need to some extent but with limitations including sensitivity and specificity, particularly against emerging variants of concern. Here, we developed aptamers against the SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid protein to complement or replace antibodies in antigen detection assays. As detection reagents in ELISA-like assays, our DNA aptamers were able to detect as low as 150 pg/mL of the protein and under 150 k copies of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan Alpha strain in viral transport medium with little cross-reactivity to other human coronaviruses (HCoVs). Further, our aptamers were reselected against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern, and we found two sequences that had a more than two-fold increase in signal compared to our original aptamers when used as detection reagents against protein from the Omicron strain. These findings illustrate the use of aptamers as promising alternative detection reagents that may translate for use in current tests and our findings validate the method for the reselection of aptamers against emerging viral strains.

Actionable wastewater surveillance: application to a university residence hall during the transition between Delta and Omicron resurgences of COVID-19

Wastewater surveillance has gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic as an effective and non-biased means to track community infection. While most surveillance relies on samples collected at municipal wastewater treatment plants, surveillance is more actionable when samples are collected "upstream" where mitigation of transmission is tractable. This report describes the results of wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 at residence halls on a university campus aimed at preventing outbreak escalation by mitigating community spread. Another goal was to estimate fecal shedding rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a non-clinical setting. Passive sampling devices were deployed in sewer laterals originating from residence halls at a frequency of twice weekly during fall 2021 as the Delta variant of concern continued to circulate across North America. A positive detection as part of routine sampling in late November 2021 triggered daily monitoring and further isolated the signal to a single wing of one residence hall. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 within the wastewater over a period of 3 consecutive days led to a coordinated rapid antigen testing campaign targeting the residence hall occupants and the identification and isolation of infected individuals. With knowledge of the number of individuals testing positive for COVID-19, fecal shedding rates were estimated to range from 3.70 log10 gc ‧ g feces^-1 to 5.94 log10 gc ‧ g feces^-1. These results reinforce the efficacy of wastewater surveillance as an early indicator of infection in congregate living settings. Detections can trigger public health measures ranging from enhanced communications to targeted coordinated testing and quarantine.

The New Normal: Delayed Peak SARS-CoV-2 Viral Loads Relative to Symptom Onset and Implications for COVID-19 Testing Programs

Background

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, peak viral loads coincided with symptom onset. We hypothesized that in a highly immune population, symptom onset might occur earlier in infection, coinciding with lower viral loads.

Methods

We assessed SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A viral loads relative to symptom duration in recently-tested adults. Symptomatic participants ≥16y presenting to testing sites in Georgia (4/2022-4/2023; Omicron variant predominant) provided symptom duration. Nasal swab samples were tested by the Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay and Ct values recorded. Nucleoprotein concentrations in SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive samples were measured by Single Molecule Array. To estimate hypothetical antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag RDT) sensitivity on each day after symptom onset, percentages of individuals with Ct value ≤30 or ≤25 were calculated.

Results

Of 621 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive individuals (64.1% women, median 40.9y), 556/621 (89.5%) had a history of vaccination, natural infection, or both. By both Ct value and antigen concentration measurements, median viral loads rose from the day of symptom onset and peaked on the fourth day. Ag RDT sensitivity estimates were 35.7-71.4% on the first day, 63.9-78.7% on the third day, and 78.6-90.6% on the fourth day of symptoms.In 74 influenza A PCR-positive individuals (55.4% women; median 35.0y), median influenza viral loads peaked on the second day of symptoms.

Conclusions

In a highly immune adult population, median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads peaked on the fourth day of symptoms. Influenza A viral loads peaked soon after symptom onset. These findings have implications for ongoing use of Ag RDTs for COVID-19 and influenza.

Key Points

In a highly immune adult population, median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads by cycle threshold and antigen measurements peaked on the fourth day of symptoms, with implications for testing practice. In contrast, viral loads for influenza A peaked soon after symptom onset.

Extreme differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral loads among respiratory specimen types during presumed pre-infectious and infectious periods

SARS-CoV-2 viral-load measurements from a single-specimen type are used to establish diagnostic strategies, interpret clinical-trial results for vaccines and therapeutics, model viral transmission, and understand virus-host interactions. However, measurements from a single-specimen type are implicitly assumed to be representative of other specimen types. We quantified viral-load timecourses from individuals who began daily self-sampling of saliva, anterior-nares (nasal), and oropharyngeal (throat) swabs before or at the incidence of infection with the Omicron variant. Viral loads in different specimen types from the same person at the same timepoint exhibited extreme differences, up to 10⁹ copies/mL. These differences were not due to variation in sample self-collection, which was consistent. For most individuals, longitudinal viral-load timecourses in different specimen types did not correlate. Throat-swab and saliva viral loads began to rise as many as 7 days earlier than nasal-swab viral loads in most individuals, leading to very low clinical sensitivity of nasal swabs during the first days of infection. Individuals frequently exhibited presumably infectious viral loads in one specimen type while viral loads were low or undetectable in other specimen types. Therefore, defining an individual as infectious based on assessment of a single-specimen type underestimates the infectious period, and overestimates the ability of that specimen type to detect infectious individuals. For diagnostic COVID-19 testing, these three single-specimen types have low clinical sensitivity, whereas a combined throat-nasal swab, and assays with high analytical sensitivity, was inferred to have significantly better clinical sensitivity to detect presumed pre-infectious and infectious individuals.

Nasal and Plasma Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 RNA Levels Are Associated With Timing of Symptom Resolution in the ACTIV-2 Trial of Nonhospitalized Adults With Coronavirus Disease 2019

Acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 symptoms limit daily activities, but little is known about its association with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral burden. In this exploratory analysis of placebo recipients in the ACTIV-2/A5401 platform trial, we showed that high anterior nasal RNA levels and detectable plasma RNA were associated with delayed symptom improvement. Clinical Trials Registration. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04518410.

Sensitivity of Rapid Antigen Tests Against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants

Rapid Antigen Tests (RAT) have become an invaluable tool for combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, concerns have been raised regarding the ability of existing RATs to effectively detect emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. We compared the performance of eight commercially available, emergency use authorized RATs against the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants using individual patient and serially diluted pooled clinical samples. The RATs exhibited lower sensitivity for Omicron samples when using PCR Cycle threshold (C T ) value (a proxy for RNA concentration) as the comparator. Interestingly, however, they exhibited similar sensitivity for Omicron and Delta samples when using quantitative antigen concentration as the comparator. We further found that the Omicron samples had lower ratios of antigen to RNA, which offers a potential explanation for the apparent lower sensitivity of RATs for that variant when using C T value as a reference. Our findings underscore the complexity in assessing RAT performance against emerging variants and highlight the need for ongoing evaluation in the face of changing population immunity and virus evolution.

Viral shedding patterns of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections by periods of variant predominance and vaccination status in Gyeonggi Province, Korea

OBJECTIVES

We compared the viral cycle threshold (Ct) values of infected patients to better understand viral kinetics by vaccination status during different periods of variant predominance in Gyeonggi Province, Korea.

METHODS

We obtained case-specific data from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance system, Gyeonggi in-depth epidemiological report system, and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service from January 2020 to January 2022. We defined periods of variant predominance and explored Ct values by analyzing viral sequencing test results. Using a generalized additive model, we performed a nonlinear regression analysis to determine viral kinetics over time.

RESULTS

Cases in the Delta variant's period of predominance had higher viral shedding patterns than cases in other periods. The temporal change of viral shedding did not vary by vaccination status in the Omicron-predominant period, but viral shedding decreased in patients who had completed their third vaccination in the Delta-predominant period. During the Delta-predominant and Omicron-predominant periods, the time from symptom onset to peak viral shedding based on the E gene was approximately 2.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 2.5) and 2.1 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 2.1), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In one-time tests conducted to diagnose COVID-19 in a large population, although no adjustment for individual characteristics was conducted, it was confirmed that viral shedding differed by the predominant strain and vaccination history. These results show the value of utilizing hundreds of thousands of test data produced at COVID-19 screening test centers.

Epidemiological characteristics and quarantine assessment of imported international COVID-19 cases, March to December 2020, Chengdu, China

International flights have accelerated the global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Determination of the optimal quarantine period for international travelers is crucial to prevent the local spread caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We performed a retrospective epidemiological study using 491 imported COVID-19 cases in Chengdu, China, to describe the characteristic of the cases and estimate the time from arrival to confirmation for international travelers using nonparametric survival methods. Among the 491 imported COVID-19 cases, 194 (39.5%) were asymptomatic infections. The mean age was 35.6 years (SD = 12.1 years) and 83.3% were men. The majority (74.1%) were screened positive for SARS-CoV-2, conducted by Chengdu Customs District, the People's Republic of China. Asymptomatic cases were younger than presymptomatic or symptomatic cases (P < 0.01). The daily number of imported COVID-19 cases displayed jagged changes. 95% of COVID-19 cases were confirmed by PT-PCR within 14 days (95% CI 13-15) after arriving in Chengdu. A 14-day quarantine measure can ensure non-infection among international travelers with a 95% probability. Policymakers may consider an extension of the quarantine period to minimize the negative consequences of the COVID-19 confinement and prevent the international spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the government should consider the balance between COVID-19 and socioeconomic development, which may cause more serious social and health crises.

SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal viral load in individuals infected with BA.2, compared to Alpha, Gamma, Delta and BA.1 variants: A single-center comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 has evolved, leading to the emergence of new Variants Of Concern (VOCs) with significant impact on transmissibility. Although the transmission process is complex, higher nasopharyngeal viral load (NP-VL) can be considered as a proxy for greater transmissibility.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this analysis was to compare NP-VL across a set of representative VOCs observed in mildly symptomatic patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational single-center comparative analysis of patients with early mild-to-moderate COVID-19, enrolled within the early treatment access program of Lazzaro Spallanzani Institute (March 2021-March 2022). NP-VL before drug administration was estimated through RT-PCR, based on cycle threshold values (CTs); VOCs were identified by Sanger sequencing. VOCs' average treatment effect (ATE) was estimated on the CTs fitted in the log2 scale, controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 707 patients were included. VOCs were: 10% Alpha, 3% Gamma, 34% Delta, 34% BA.1, 19% BA.2. Mean CTs for BA.1 and BA.2 were lower than Delta and BA.1, respectively. After adjusting for calendar time, age, immunodeficiency and vaccination, CTs for Gamma were lower than those seen for Alpha and higher than Delta, for Delta were similar to BA.1, for BA.2 were lower than Delta and BA.1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis shows higher NP-VL of BA.2 compared to previously circulating VOCs, even after controlling for factors potentially contributing to the amount of nasopharyngeal viral RNA, included vaccination, supporting the increased transmissibility of BA.2. Further studies are necessary to clarify this mechanism and to provide guidance for public health measures.

SARS-CoV-2 indoor environment contamination with epidemiological and experimental investigations

SARS-CoV-2 has been detected both in air and on surfaces, but questions remain about the patient-specific and environmental factors affecting virus transmission. Additionally, more detailed information on viral sampling of the air is needed. This prospective cohort study (N = 56) presents results from 258 air and 252 surface samples from the surroundings of 23 hospitalized and eight home-treated COVID-19 index patients between July 2020 and March 2021 and compares the results between the measured environments and patient factors. Additionally, epidemiological and experimental investigations were performed. The proportions of qRT-PCR-positive air (10.7% hospital/17.6% homes) and surface samples (8.8%/12.9%) showed statistical similarity in hospital and homes. Significant SARS-CoV-2 air contamination was observed in a large (655.25 m³ ) mechanically ventilated (1.67 air changes per hour, 32.4-421 L/s/patient) patient hall even with only two patients present. All positive air samples were obtained in the absence of aerosol-generating procedures. In four cases, positive environmental samples were detected after the patients had developed a neutralizing IgG response. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in the following particle sizes: 0.65-4.7 μm, 7.0-12.0 μm, >10 μm, and <100 μm. Appropriate infection control against airborne and surface transmission routes is needed in both environments, even after antibody production has begun.

Detection and Kinetics of Subgenomic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 RNA Viral Load in Longitudinal Diagnostic RNA-Positive Samples

While detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by diagnostic reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is highly sensitive for viral RNA, the nucleic acid amplification of subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs) that are the product of viral replication may more accurately identify replication. We characterized the diagnostic RNA and sgRNA detection by RT-PCR from nasal swab samples collected daily by participants in postexposure prophylaxis or treatment studies for SARS-CoV-2. Among 1932 RT-PCR-positive swab samples with sgRNA tests, 40% (767) had detectable sgRNA. Above a diagnostic RNA viral load (VL) threshold of 5.1 log10 copies/mL, 96% of samples had detectable sgRNA with VLs that followed a linear trend. The trajectories of diagnostic RNA and sgRNA VLs differed, with 80% peaking on the same day but duration of sgRNA detection being shorter (8 vs 14 days). With a large sample of daily swab samples we provide comparative sgRNA kinetics and a diagnostic RNA threshold that correlates with replicating virus independent of symptoms or duration of illness.

Evaluation of the artus® Prep&Amp UM RT-PCR for detection of SARS-CoV-2 from nasopharyngeal swabs without prior nucleic acid eluate extraction

Here we describe a retrospective clinical evaluation of the QIAGEN artus® SARS-CoV-2 Prep&Amp UM RT-PCR assay that detects SARS-CoV-2 RNA without the need for a nucleic acid eluate extraction procedure. Using Roche SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on the cobas® 8800 platform as a reference standard, a total of 225 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive and 320 negative nasopharyngeal swabs in viral transport media, were used to evaluate the artus® assay. Using the RT-PCR cycle threshold as a semi-quantitative marker of viral load, an assessment of over 370,000 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive results was used in the design of the reference positive specimen cohort. The viral load of all reference positive specimens used in the evaluation was a unique and accurate representation of the range and levels of SARS-CoV-2 positivity observed over a 13-month period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The artus® RT-PCR detects the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, an internal control, and the human RNase P gene to ensure specimen quality. The diagnostic sensitivity of artus® was 92.89% with a specificity of 100%. To assess the analytical sensitivity, a limit of detection was performed using the 1^st WHO NIBSC SARS-CoV-2 international standard, recording a 95% LOD of 1.1 × 10³ IU/ml. The total invalid rate of specimens was 7.34% due to a lack of detectable RNase P (C_t >35). The artus® SARS-CoV-2 Prep&Amp UM RT-PCR assay is a new rapid RT-PCR assay, which may be considered to produce acceptable levels of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity whilst potentially halving the laboratory processing time.

Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory viral infections in healthcare settings: current and emerging concepts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

COVID-19 has catalyzed a wealth of new data on the science of respiratory pathogen transmission and revealed opportunities to enhance infection prevention practices in healthcare settings.

RECENT FINDINGS

New data refute the traditional division between droplet vs airborne transmission and clarify the central role of aerosols in spreading all respiratory viruses, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), even in the absence of so-called 'aerosol-generating procedures' (AGPs). Indeed, most AGPs generate fewer aerosols than talking, labored breathing, or coughing. Risk factors for transmission include high viral loads, symptoms, proximity, prolonged exposure, lack of masking, and poor ventilation. Testing all patients on admission and thereafter can identify early occult infections and prevent hospital-based clusters. Additional prevention strategies include universal masking, encouraging universal vaccination, preferential use of N95 respirators when community rates are high, improving native ventilation, utilizing portable high-efficiency particulate air filters when ventilation is limited, and minimizing room sharing when possible.

SUMMARY

Multifaceted infection prevention programs that include universal testing, masking, vaccination, and enhanced ventilation can minimize nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients and workplace infections in healthcare personnel. Extending these insights to other respiratory viruses may further increase the safety of healthcare and ready hospitals for novel respiratory viruses that may emerge in the future.

Clinical epidemiological applicability of real-time polymerase chain reaction for COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

Real-time polymerase chain reaction is currently used as a confirmatory test for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The test results are interpreted as positive, negative, or inconclusive, and are used only for a qualitative classification of patients. However, the test results can be quantitated using threshold count (Ct) values to determine the amount of virus present in the sample. Therefore, this study investigated the diagnostic usefulness of Ct results through various quantitative analyzes, along with an analysis of clinical and epidemiological characteristics.

METHODS

Clinical and epidemiological data from 4,642 COVID-19 patients in April 2021 were analyzed, including the Ct values of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), envelope (E), and nucleocapsid (N) genes. Clinical and epidemiological data (sex, age, underlying diseases, and early symptoms) were collected through a structured questionnaire. A correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between variables.

RESULTS

All 3 genes showed statistically significant relationships with symptoms and severity levels. The Ct values of the RdRp gene decreased as the severity of the patients increased. Moreover, statistical significance was observed for the presence of underlying diseases and dyspnea.

CONCLUSION

Ct values were found to be related to patients' clinical and epidemiological characteristics. In particular, since these factors are closely related to symptoms and severity, Ct values can be used as primary data for predicting patients' disease prognosis despite the limitations of this method. Conducting follow-up studies to validate this approach might enable using the data from this study to establish policies for preventing COVID-19 infection and spread.

COVID-19 Causes Ciliary Dysfunction as Demonstrated by Human Intranasal Micro-Optical Coherence Tomography Imaging

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), binds via ACE2 receptors, highly expressed in ciliated cells of the nasal epithelium. Micro-optical coherence tomography (μOCT) is a minimally invasive intranasal imaging technique that can determine cellular and functional dynamics of respiratory epithelia at 1-μm resolution, enabling real time visualization and quantification of epithelial anatomy, ciliary motion, and mucus transport. We hypothesized that respiratory epithelial cell dysfunction in COVID-19 will manifest as reduced ciliated cell function and mucociliary abnormalities, features readily visualized by μOCT. Symptomatic outpatients with SARS-CoV-2 aged ≥ 18 years were recruited within 14 days of symptom onset. Data was interpreted for subjects with COVID-19 (n=13) in comparison to healthy controls (n=8). Significant reduction in functional cilia, diminished ciliary beat frequency, and abnormal ciliary activity were evident. Other abnormalities included denuded epithelium, presence of mucus rafts, and increased inflammatory cells. Our results indicate that subjects with mild but symptomatic COVID-19 exhibit functional abnormalities of the respiratory mucosa underscoring the importance of mucociliary health in viral illness and disease transmission. Ciliary imaging enables investigation of early pathogenic mechanisms of COVID-19 and may be useful for evaluating disease progression and therapeutic response.

Graphical abstract

High Diagnostic Accuracy of a Novel Lateral Flow Assay for the Point-of-Care Detection of SARS-CoV-2

Highly accurate lateral flow immunochromatographic tests (LFTs) are an important public health tool to tackle the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to assess the comparative diagnostic performance of the novel ND COVID-19 LFT under real-world conditions. A total of 400 nasopharyngeal swab specimens with a wide range of viral loads were tested in both reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction and ND LFT. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 85% (95% CI: 76.7−90.7%) and 100% (95% CI: 98.7−100%), respectively. There was a clear association between the false-negative rate and sample viral load: the sensitivity parameters for specimens with cycle threshold values of <25 (>3.95 × 106 copies/mL) and ≥30 (≤1.29 × 105 copies/mL) were 100% and 50%, respectively. The performance was maximized in testing samples with viral loads ≥1.29 × 105 copies/mL. These findings suggest that the ND LFT is sufficiently accurate and useful for mass population screening programs, especially in high-prevalence and resource-constrained settings or during periods when the epidemic curve is rising. Other public health implications were also discussed.

SARS-CoV-2 Virus Dynamics in Recently Infected People-Data From a Household Transmission Study

We used daily real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results from 67 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a household transmission study, conducted April 2020-May 2021, to examine the trajectory of cycle threshold (Ct) values, an inverse correlate of viral RNA concentration. Ct values varied across RT-PCR platforms and by participant age. Specimens collected from children and adolescents had higher Ct values and adults aged ≥50 years showed lower Ct values than adults aged 18-49 years. Ct values were lower on days when participants reported experiencing symptoms, with the lowest Ct value occurring 2-6 days after symptom onset.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is Associated With Higher Levels of Serum IL-17C, Matrix Metalloproteinase 10 and Fibroblast Growth Factors Than Mild Symptomatic COVID-19

Young adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 are frequently asymptomatic or develop only mild disease. Because capturing representative mild and asymptomatic cases require active surveillance, they are less characterized than moderate or severe cases of COVID-19. However, a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic infections might shed light into the immune mechanisms associated with the control of symptoms and protection. To this aim, we have determined the temporal dynamics of the humoral immune response, as well as the serum inflammatory profile, of mild and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in a cohort of 172 initially seronegative prospectively studied United States Marine recruits, 149 of whom were subsequently found to be SARS-CoV-2 infected. The participants had blood samples taken, symptoms surveyed and PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 performed periodically for up to 105 days. We found similar dynamics in the profiles of viral load and in the generation of specific antibody responses in asymptomatic and mild symptomatic participants. A proteomic analysis using an inflammatory panel including 92 analytes revealed a pattern of three temporal waves of inflammatory and immunoregulatory mediators, and a return to baseline for most of the inflammatory markers by 35 days post-infection. We found that 23 analytes were significantly higher in those participants that reported symptoms at the time of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR compared with asymptomatic participants, including mostly chemokines and cytokines associated with inflammatory response or immune activation (i.e., TNF-α, TNF-β, CXCL10, IL-8). Notably, we detected 7 analytes (IL-17C, MMP-10, FGF-19, FGF-21, FGF-23, CXCL5 and CCL23) that were higher in asymptomatic participants than in participants with symptoms; these are known to be involved in tissue repair and may be related to the control of symptoms. Overall, we found a serum proteomic signature that differentiates asymptomatic and mild symptomatic infections in young adults, including potential targets for developing new therapies and prognostic tests.

Molecular and Serologic Diagnostic Technologies for SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented many challenges that have spurred biotechnological research to address specific problems. Diagnostics is one area where biotechnology has been critical. Diagnostic tests play a vital role in managing a viral threat by facilitating the detection of infected and/or recovered individuals. From the perspective of what information is provided, these tests fall into two major categories, molecular and serological. Molecular diagnostic techniques assay whether a virus is present in a biological sample, thus making it possible to identify individuals who are currently infected. Additionally, when the immune system is exposed to a virus, it responds by producing antibodies specific to the virus. Serological tests make it possible to identify individuals who have mounted an immune response to a virus of interest and therefore facilitate the identification of individuals who have previously encountered the virus. These two categories of tests provide different perspectives valuable to understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Within these categories, different biotechnological approaches offer specific advantages and disadvantages. Here we review the categories of tests developed for the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus or antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the role of diagnostics in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Self-Assessed Severity as a Determinant of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Symptom Specificity: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Coronavirus disease 2019 symptom definitions rarely include symptom severity. We collected daily nasal swab samples and symptom diaries from contacts of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) case patients. Requiring ≥1 moderate or severe symptom reduced sensitivity to predict SARS-CoV-2 shedding from 60.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.9%-66.7%) to 31.5% (95% CI, 25.7%- 38.0%) but increased specificity from 77.5% (95% CI, 75.3%-79.5%) to 93.8% (95% CI, 92.7%-94.8%).

An integrated simulation framework for the prevention and mitigation of pandemics caused by airborne pathogens

In this work, we developed an integrated simulation framework for pandemic prevention and mitigation of pandemics caused by airborne pathogens, incorporating three sub-models, namely the spatial model, the mobility model, and the propagation model, to create a realistic simulation environment for the evaluation of the effectiveness of different countermeasures on the epidemic dynamics. The spatial model converts images of real cities obtained from Google Maps into undirected weighted graphs that capture the spatial arrangement of the streets utilized next for the mobility of individuals. The mobility model implements a stochastic agent-based approach, developed to assign specific routes to individuals moving in the city, through the use of stochastic processes, utilizing the weights of the underlying graph to deploy shortest path algorithms. The propagation model implements both the epidemiological model and the physical substance of the transmission of an airborne pathogen (in our approach, we investigate the transmission parameters of SARS-CoV-2). The deployment of a set of countermeasures was investigated in reducing the spread of the pathogen, where, through a series of repetitive simulation experiments, we evaluated the effectiveness of each countermeasure in pandemic prevention.