Integrating climate and landscape models to prioritize areas and conservation strategies for an endangered arboreal primate

Saguinus martinsi: predicted loss of habitat suitability following global warming and insights for the conservation of the species

Global climate change is directly influenced by human actions due to land use and occupation. In this way, factors related to environments conditions, concomitant with anthropogenic impacts, determine the suitability of environments for species. We analyze the present-day and future suitability of environments for Saguinus martinsi, a primate species endemic to the Brazilian Amazon region. We analyzed two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), one "optimistic" (SSP2-4.5) and the other "pessimistic" (SSP5-8.5), described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We created the models using climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables based on the Euclidean Distance algorithm. Our results indicate that S. martinsi may face severe threats in the near future as a consequence of climate change, given that no environmentally suitable areas were identified for the species in either of the future climate scenarios analyzed. We understand that it is necessary to expand searches for the presence and/or absence of the species in potentially environmentally suitable areas, in addition to consolidating measures to mitigate environmental impacts for the conditions found.

Effect of landscape attributes on the occurrence of the endangered golden-headed lion tamarin in southern Bahia, Brazil

The golden-headed lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) is an endangered primate that occurs exclusively in the Atlantic Forest of southern Bahia, Brazil. Its geographic range has been severely reduced by deforestation and its populations are restricted to a human-modified landscape consisting primarily of Atlantic forest fragments and shade cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforestry, locally known as cabrucas. In the last 30 years, there has been a 42% reduction in the geographic range and a 60% reduction in the population size of L. chrysomelas, with only 8% of its habitat represented by protected areas. Thus, we investigated the occurrence of L. chrysomelas in forest fragments and cabrucas based on interviews and using playback census, and evaluated the influence of landscape attributes on its occurrence. The occurrence was measured using a Generalized Linear Model using a set of 12 predictor variables, including fragment size and elevation. L. chrysomelas inhabited 186 (38%) of the 495 forest fragments and cabrucas. Most inhabited habitat patches (n = 169, 91%) are in the eastern portion (ca. 70 km wide region from the Atlantic coast to inland) of its geographic range. The remaining (n = 17, 9%) are in the western portion of the distribution, between 70 and 150 km from the Atlantic coast. Our models indicate a higher occurrence of L. chrysomelas in the eastern portion of its geographic range, where the landscape exhibits lower land cover diversity, greater functional connectivity, lower altitudes (<400 m), and is primarily composed of forest fragments and cabrucas with a higher core percentage. In contrast, we observed a lower occurrence of L. chrysomelas in the western portion, where the landscape is more diverse and heterogeneous due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture and livestock. We urge the establishment of ecological corridors via reforestation of degraded areas in the western portion of the range. This increase in habitat availability and suitability in the west together with the protection of the forests and cabrucas in the east would increase our chances of saving L. chrysomelas from extinction.

Using ecological niche modelling to prioritise areas for conservation of the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps)

Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat and (2) prioritising areas for conservation and/or restoration. The current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of Southeast Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritise for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover >80%, high precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality between 21 and 23°C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in 'Serra das Torres' (South of the current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors on the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range are required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence.

Climate change effects on the distribution of yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826))

The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Sapajus xanthosternos, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the S. xanthosternos range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for S. xanthosternos is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

The problem of conserving an ecosystem that has not been completely delineated and mapped: the case of the Cocais Palm Forest

Land cover changes threaten biodiversity and alter the geographic distribution of forests worldwide. Studies on this topic are important to establish conservation strategies and public policies. However, different studies may propose different spatial representations due to differences when identifying, classifying, and/or mapping the same vegetation formation, as observed for the Cocais Forest region. This palm-dominated ecosystem predominates the Brazilian mid-north region in an ecotone region with 3 of the 6 Brazilian biomes. In this study, we conducted a literature review of studies that delineated and mapped the Cocais Forest, aiming to compare different mapped regions and to establish a new distribution map integrating these spatial data. We found seven sources that revealed spatial divergences in identifying the spatial distribution of Cocais Forest, including its characteristics in terms of size and shape, which could affect the conservation, socioeconomic, and cultural policies and studies carried out on this emblematic vegetation formation and influence area. The delineation proposed by de Sousa Nascimento and Lima (Revista de Políticas Públicas 189-192, 2016) encompassed the largest area. In addition, there was a lack of consensus regarding the nomenclature for this ecosystem, and few works offered a detailed description of the mapping process. Despite the different spatial distributions found for the Cocais Forest, we succeeded in establishing a common area by overlapping individual maps, resulting in the identification of a core region exclusive located in the State of Maranhão.

Primates facing climate crisis in a tropical forest hotspot will lose climatic suitable geographical range

Global climate changes affect biodiversity and cause species distribution shifts, contractions, and expansions. Climate change and disease are emerging threats to primates, and approximately one-quarter of primates' ranges have temperatures over historical ones. How will climate changes influence Atlantic Forest primate ranges? We used habitat suitability models and measured potential changes in area and distributions shifts. Climate change expected in 2100 may change the distribution area of Atlantic Forest primates. Fourteen species (74%) are predicted to lose more than 50% of their distribution, and nine species (47%) are predicted to lose more than 75% of their distribution. The balance was negative, indicating a potential future loss, and the strength of the reduction in the distribution is related to the severity of climate change (SSP scenarios). Directional shifts were detected to the south. The projected mean centroid latitudinal shift is ~ 51 km to the south for 2100 SSP5-8.5 scenario. The possibility of dispersal will depend on suitable routes and landscape configuration. Greenhouse gas emissions should be urgently reduced. Our results also emphasize that no more forest loss is acceptable in Atlantic Forest, and restoration, canopy bridges, friendly agroecosystems, and monitoring of infrastructure projects are urgent to enable dealing with climate change.

New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets

Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to global biodiversity and, for many species, gaps in our knowledge of their biology remain acute. Gaps in baseline knowledge, such as confirmed identifications (Linnean shortfalls) and adequate collections (Wallacean shortfalls), need to be minimized with new studies, since this is often critical for effective conservation. Despite the increase in scientific research on primates in the southwest of the Brazilian Amazon, little is known about the species Mico nigriceps (Ferrari & Lopes, 1992) Primates, Platirryni. In the current study, we sought to reduce the extent of the Wallacean shortfall for M. nigriceps, understand whether climate change represents a threat to the distribution of the species, and identify priority areas for its conservation. Accordingly, we provide 121 new records in 14 locations, obtained directly from the field, and five from the literature. Using this, we carried out ecological niche modeling, to better understand how environmental suitability might limit the area occupied by the species. We then projected a distribution for 2070 with the SSP2-4.5 (more optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (more pessimistic) scenarios. Our data confirmed the geographic distribution of the species as being restricted to headwaters of the Ji-Paraná/Machado river, but with a 400 km extension to the south. Under the modeled climate change scenarios, the area suitable for the species declines by 21% under the most optimistic, and by 27% in the pessimistic, scenario across the projected 50-year period. Although we have expanded the area of known occurrence for this species, we point out that climate change threatens the stability of this newly-discovered population strongly, and that this danger is intensified by deforestation, fire and hunting. We recommend that further studies be carried out to confirm the presence of the species in adjacent areas, those indicated by generated models as being potential environmentally suitable. In addition, we recommend intensifying forest restoration in currently pastured areas, and protection of the areas forming the current and future habitat of this species through such measures as protected area creation.

Predicting Hotspots and Prioritizing Protected Areas for Endangered Primate Species in Indonesia under Changing Climate

Simple Summary

Primates play an essential role in human life and its ecosystem. However, Indonesian primates have suffered many threats due to climate change and altered landscapes that lead to extinction. Therefore, primate conservation planning and strategies are important in maintaining their population. We quantified how extensively the protected areas overlapped primate hotspots and how it changes under mitigation and worst-case scenarios of climate change. Finally, we provide protected areas recommendations based on species richness and land-use changes under the worst-case scenario for Indonesian primate conservation planning and management options.

Abstract

Indonesia has a large number of primate diversity where a majority of the species are threatened. In addition, climate change is conservation issues that biodiversity may likely face in the future, particularly among primates. Thus, species-distribution modeling was useful for conservation planning. Herein, we present protected areas (PA) recommendations with high nature-conservation importance based on species-richness changes. We performed maximum entropy (Maxent) to retrieve species distribution of 51 primate species across Indonesia. We calculated species-richness change and range shifts to determine the priority of PA for primates under mitigation and worst-case scenarios by 2050. The results suggest that the models have an excellent performance based on seven different metrics. Current primate distributions occupied 65% of terrestrial landscape. However, our results indicate that 30 species of primates in Indonesia are likely to be extinct by 2050. Future primate species richness would be also expected to decline with the alpha diversity ranging from one to four species per 1 km². Based on our results, we recommend 54 and 27 PA in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat-restoration priority and refugia, respectively. We conclude that species-distribution modeling approach along with the categorical species richness is effectively applicable for assessing primate biodiversity patterns.