Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Approaches for Immuno-Oncology: Adding Virtual Patients to the Development Paradigm

An integrated quantitative systems pharmacology virtual population approach for calibration with oncology efficacy endpoints

In drug development, quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models are becoming an increasingly important mathematical tool for understanding response variability and for generating predictions to inform development decisions. Virtual populations are essential for sampling uncertainty and potential variability in QSP model predictions, but many clinical efficacy endpoints can be difficult to capture with QSP models that typically rely on mechanistic biomarkers. In oncology, challenges are particularly significant when connecting tumor size with time-to-event endpoints like progression-free survival while also accounting for censoring due to consent withdrawal, loss in follow-up, or safety criteria. Here, we expand on our prior work and propose an extended virtual population selection algorithm that can jointly match tumor burden dynamics and progression-free survival times in the presence of censoring. We illustrate the core components of our algorithm through simulation and calibration of a signaling pathway model that was fitted to clinical data for a small molecule targeted inhibitor. This methodology provides an approach that can be tailored to other virtual population simulations aiming to match survival endpoints for solid-tumor clinical datasets.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling in Immuno-Oncology: Hypothesis Testing, Dose Optimization, and Efficacy Prediction

Despite an increasing number of clinical trials, cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide in the past decade. Among all complex diseases, clinical trials in oncology have among the lowest success rates, in part due to the high intra- and inter-tumoral heterogeneity. There are more than a thousand cancer drugs and treatment combinations being investigated in ongoing clinical trials for various cancer subtypes, germline mutations, metastasis, etc. Particularly, treatments relying on the (re)activation of the immune system have become increasingly present in the clinical trial pipeline. However, the complexities of the immune response and cancer-immune interactions pose a challenge to the development of these therapies. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP), as a computational approach to predict tumor response to treatments of interest, can be used to conduct in silico clinical trials with virtual patients (and emergent use of digital twins) in place of real patients, thus lowering the time and cost of clinical trials. In line with improved mechanistic understanding of the human immune system and promising results from recent cancer immunotherapy, QSP models can play critical roles in model-informed drug development in immuno-oncology. In this chapter, we discuss how QSP models were designed to serve different study objectives, including hypothesis testing, dose optimization, and efficacy prediction, via case studies in immuno-oncology.

Advancing cancer drug development with mechanistic mathematical modeling: bridging the gap between theory and practice

Quantitative predictive modeling of cancer growth, progression, and individual response to therapy is a rapidly growing field. Researchers from mathematical modeling, systems biology, pharmaceutical industry, and regulatory bodies, are collaboratively working on predictive models that could be applied for drug development and, ultimately, the clinical management of cancer patients. A plethora of modeling paradigms and approaches have emerged, making it challenging to compile a comprehensive review across all subdisciplines. It is therefore critical to gauge fundamental design aspects against requirements, and weigh opportunities and limitations of the different model types. In this review, we discuss three fundamental types of cancer models: space-structured models, ecological models, and immune system focused models. For each type, it is our goal to illustrate which mechanisms contribute to variability and heterogeneity in cancer growth and response, so that the appropriate architecture and complexity of a new model becomes clearer. We present the main features addressed by each of the three exemplary modeling types through a subjective collection of literature and illustrative exercises to facilitate inspiration and exchange, with a focus on providing a didactic rather than exhaustive overview. We close by imagining a future multi-scale model design to impact critical decisions in oncology drug development.

Ten challenges and opportunities in computational immuno-oncology

Immuno-oncology has transformed the treatment of cancer, with several immunotherapies becoming the standard treatment across histologies. Despite these advancements, the majority of patients do not experience durable clinical benefits, highlighting the imperative for ongoing advancement in immuno-oncology. Computational immuno-oncology emerges as a forefront discipline that draws on biomedical data science and intersects with oncology, immunology, and clinical research, with the overarching goal to accelerate the development of effective and safe immuno-oncology treatments from the laboratory to the clinic. In this review, we outline 10 critical challenges and opportunities in computational immuno-oncology, emphasizing the importance of robust computational strategies and interdisciplinary collaborations amid the constantly evolving interplay between clinical needs and technological innovation.

Assessing the performance of QSP models: biology as the driver for validation

Validation of a quantitative model is a critical step in establishing confidence in the model's suitability for whatever analysis it was designed. While processes for validation are well-established in the statistical sciences, the field of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) has taken a more piecemeal approach to defining and demonstrating validation. Although classical statistical methods can be used in a QSP context, proper validation of a mechanistic systems model requires a more nuanced approach to what precisely is being validated, and what role said validation plays in the larger context of the analysis. In this review, we summarize current thoughts of QSP validation in the scientific community, contrast the aims of statistical validation from several contexts (including inference, pharmacometrics analysis, and machine learning) with the challenges faced in QSP analysis, and use examples from published QSP models to define different stages or levels of validation, any of which may be sufficient depending on the context at hand.

Dosage Optimization: A Regulatory Perspective for Developing Oncology Drugs

Optimized dosages provide a secure foundation for the development of well-tolerated and effective oncology drugs. Project Optimus, an initiative within the Oncology Center of Excellence, strives to reform the dosage optimization and dosage selection paradigm in oncology. This initiative stems from the availability of targeted drugs and from the demand for more tolerable dosages from patients, caregivers, and advocates. Reforming dosage optimization for oncology drugs requires a paradigm shift from the one employed for cytotoxic chemotherapy to one that understands and considers the unique attributes of targeted therapy, immunotherapy, and cellular therapy. Limited characterization of dosage during drug development may result in (1) patients not staying on a therapy long-term due to poor tolerability, (2) failure to establish positive benefit-risk in clinical trials for regulatory approval (3) withdrawal of drugs from the market (4) removal of indications of drugs from the market. Timely access to drugs is important for all patients with cancer, so it is vital to iteratively analyze all nonclinical and clinically relevant data at each stage of development and leverage quantitative approaches, innovative trial designs, and regulatory support to arrive at dosages with favorable benefit-risk. This review highlights the key challenges and opportunities to embracing this new paradigm and realizing the full potential of new oncology therapies.

Integration of Clinical Trial Spatial Multiomics Analysis and Virtual Clinical Trials Enables Immunotherapy Response Prediction and Biomarker Discovery

Due to the lack of treatment options, there remains a need to advance new therapeutics in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The traditional approach moves from initial molecular discovery through animal models to human trials to advance novel systemic therapies that improve treatment outcomes for patients with cancer. Computational methods that simulate tumors mathematically to describe cellular and molecular interactions are emerging as promising tools to simulate the impact of therapy entirely in silico, potentially greatly accelerating delivery of new therapeutics to patients. To facilitate the design of dosing regimens and identification of potential biomarkers for immunotherapy, we developed a new computational model to track tumor progression at the organ scale while capturing the spatial heterogeneity of the tumor in HCC. This computational model of spatial quantitative systems pharmacology was designed to simulate the effects of combination immunotherapy. The model was initiated using literature-derived parameter values and fitted to the specifics of HCC. Model validation was done through comparison with spatial multiomics data from a neoadjuvant HCC clinical trial combining anti-PD1 immunotherapy and a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor cabozantinib. Validation using spatial proteomics data from imaging mass cytometry demonstrated that closer proximity between CD8 T cells and macrophages correlated with nonresponse. We also compared the model output with Visium spatial transcriptomics profiling of samples from posttreatment tumor resections in the clinical trial and from another independent study of anti-PD1 monotherapy. Spatial transcriptomics data confirmed simulation results, suggesting the importance of spatial patterns of tumor vasculature and TGFβ in tumor and immune cell interactions. Our findings demonstrate that incorporating mathematical modeling and computer simulations with high-throughput spatial multiomics data provides a novel approach for patient outcome prediction and biomarker discovery. Significance: Incorporating mathematical modeling and computer simulations with high-throughput spatial multiomics data provides an effective approach for patient outcome prediction and biomarker discovery.

Predicting efficacy assessment of combined treatment of radiotherapy and nivolumab for NSCLC patients through virtual clinical trials using QSP modeling

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) remains one of the main causes of cancer death worldwide. In the urge of finding an effective approach to treat cancer, enormous therapeutic targets and treatment combinations are explored in clinical studies, which are not only costly, suffer from a shortage of participants, but also unable to explore all prospective therapeutic solutions. Within the evolving therapeutic landscape, the combined use of radiotherapy (RT) and checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) emerged as a promising avenue. Exploiting the power of quantitative system pharmacology (QSP), we undertook a study to anticipate the therapeutic outcomes of these interventions, aiming to address the limitations of clinical trials. After enhancing a pre-existing QSP platform and accurately replicating clinical data outcomes, we conducted an in-depth study, examining different treatment protocols with nivolumab and RT, both as monotherapy and in combination, by assessing their efficacy through clinical endpoints, namely time to progression (TTP) and duration of response (DOR). As result, the synergy of combined protocols showcased enhanced TTP and extended DOR, suggesting dual advantages of extended response and slowed disease progression with certain combined regimens. Through the lens of QSP modeling, our findings highlight the potential to fine-tune combination therapies for NSCLC, thereby providing pivotal insights for tailoring patient-centric therapeutic interventions.

From virtual patients to digital twins in immuno-oncology: lessons learned from mechanistic quantitative systems pharmacology modeling

Virtual patients and digital patients/twins are two similar concepts gaining increasing attention in health care with goals to accelerate drug development and improve patients' survival, but with their own limitations. Although methods have been proposed to generate virtual patient populations using mechanistic models, there are limited number of applications in immuno-oncology research. Furthermore, due to the stricter requirements of digital twins, they are often generated in a study-specific manner with models customized to particular clinical settings (e.g., treatment, cancer, and data types). Here, we discuss the challenges for virtual patient generation in immuno-oncology with our most recent experiences, initiatives to develop digital twins, and how research on these two concepts can inform each other.

A comprehensive review of computational cell cycle models in guiding cancer treatment strategies

This article reviews the current knowledge and recent advancements in computational modeling of the cell cycle. It offers a comparative analysis of various modeling paradigms, highlighting their unique strengths, limitations, and applications. Specifically, the article compares deterministic and stochastic models, single-cell versus population models, and mechanistic versus abstract models. This detailed analysis helps determine the most suitable modeling framework for various research needs. Additionally, the discussion extends to the utilization of these computational models to illuminate cell cycle dynamics, with a particular focus on cell cycle viability, crosstalk with signaling pathways, tumor microenvironment, DNA replication, and repair mechanisms, underscoring their critical roles in tumor progression and the optimization of cancer therapies. By applying these models to crucial aspects of cancer therapy planning for better outcomes, including drug efficacy quantification, drug discovery, drug resistance analysis, and dose optimization, the review highlights the significant potential of computational insights in enhancing the precision and effectiveness of cancer treatments. This emphasis on the intricate relationship between computational modeling and therapeutic strategy development underscores the pivotal role of advanced modeling techniques in navigating the complexities of cell cycle dynamics and their implications for cancer therapy.

Quantitative systems pharmacology modeling of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer for translational efficacy evaluation and combination assessment across therapeutic modalities

HER2-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is highly aggressive and a major threat to human health. Despite the significant improvement in patients' prognosis given the drug development efforts during the past several decades, many clinical questions still remain to be addressed such as efficacy when combining different therapeutic modalities, best treatment sequences, interindividual variability as well as resistance and potential coping strategies. To better answer these questions, we developed a mechanistic quantitative systems pharmacology model of the pathophysiology of HER2+ mBC that was extensively calibrated and validated against multiscale data to quantitatively predict and characterize the signal transduction and preclinical tumor growth kinetics under different therapeutic interventions. Focusing on the second-line treatment for HER2+ mBC, e.g., antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), small molecule inhibitors/TKI and chemotherapy, the model accurately predicted the efficacy of various drug combinations and dosing regimens at the in vitro and in vivo levels. Sensitivity analyses and subsequent heterogeneous phenotype simulations revealed important insights into the design of new drug combinations to effectively overcome various resistance scenarios in HER2+ mBC treatments. In addition, the model predicted a better efficacy of the new TKI plus ADC combination which can potentially reduce drug dosage and toxicity, while it also shed light on the optimal treatment ordering of ADC versus TKI plus capecitabine regimens, and these findings were validated by new in vivo experiments. Our model is the first that mechanistically integrates multiple key drug modalities in HER2+ mBC research and it can serve as a high-throughput computational platform to guide future model-informed drug development and clinical translation.

Practical QSP application from the preclinical phase to enhance the probability of clinical success: Insights from case studies in oncology

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) has emerged as a promising modeling and simulation (M&S) approach in drug development, with potential to improve clinical success rates. While conventional M&S has significantly contributed to quantitative understanding in late preclinical and clinical phases, it falls short in explaining unexpected phenomena and testing hypotheses in the early research phase. QSP presents a solution to these limitations. To harness the full potential of QSP in early preclinical stages, preclinical modelers who are familiar with conventional M&S need to update their understanding of the differences between conventional M&S and QSP. This review focuses on QSP applications during the preclinical stage, citing case examples and sharing our experiences in oncology. We emphasize the critical role of QSP in increasing the probability of success for clinical proof of concept (PoC) when applied from the early preclinical stage. Enhancing the quality of both hypotheses and QSP models from early preclinical stage is of critical importance. Once a QSP model achieves credibility, it facilitates predictions of clinical responses and potential biomarkers. We propose that sequential QSP applications from preclinical stages can improve success rates of clinical PoC, and emphasize the importance of refining both hypotheses and QSP models throughout the process.

Realizing the promise of Project Optimus: Challenges and emerging opportunities for dose optimization in oncology drug development

Project Optimus is a US Food and Drug Administration Oncology Center of Excellence initiative aimed at reforming the dose selection and optimization paradigm in oncology drug development. This project seeks to bring together pharmaceutical companies, international regulatory agencies, academic institutions, patient advocates, and other stakeholders. Although there is much promise in this initiative, there are several challenges that need to be addressed, including multidimensionality of the dose optimization problem in oncology, the heterogeneity of cancer and patients, importance of evaluating long-term tolerability beyond dose-limiting toxicities, and the lack of reliable biomarkers for long-term efficacy. Through the lens of Totality of Evidence and with the mindset of model-informed drug development, we offer insights into dose optimization by building a quantitative knowledge base integrating diverse sources of data and leveraging quantitative modeling tools to build evidence for drug dosage considering exposure, disease biology, efficacy, toxicity, and patient factors. We believe that rational dose optimization can be achieved in oncology drug development, improving patient outcomes by maximizing therapeutic benefit while minimizing toxicity.

Virtual Patient Simulation Using Copula Modeling

Virtual patient simulation is increasingly performed to support model-based optimization of clinical trial designs or individualized dosing strategies. Quantitative pharmacological models typically incorporate individual-level patient characteristics, or covariates, which enable the generation of virtual patient cohorts. The individual-level patient characteristics, or covariates, used as input for such simulations should accurately reflect the values seen in real patient populations. Current methods often make unrealistic assumptions about the correlation between patient's covariates or require direct access to actual data sets with individual-level patient data, which may often be limited by data sharing limitations. We propose and evaluate the use of copulas to address current shortcomings in simulation of patient-associated covariates for virtual patient simulations for model-based dose and trial optimization in clinical pharmacology. Copulas are multivariate distribution functions that can capture joint distributions, including the correlation, of covariate sets. We compare the performance of copulas to alternative simulation strategies, and we demonstrate their utility in several case studies. Our work demonstrates that copulas can reproduce realistic patient characteristics, both in terms of individual covariates and the dependence structure between different covariates, outperforming alternative methods, in particular when aiming to reproduce high-dimensional covariate sets. In conclusion, copulas represent a versatile and generalizable approach for virtual patient simulation which preserve relationships between covariates, and offer an open science strategy to facilitate re-use of patient data sets.

Leveraging multi-omics data to empower quantitative systems pharmacology in immuno-oncology

Understanding the intricate interactions of cancer cells with the tumor microenvironment (TME) is a pre-requisite for the optimization of immunotherapy. Mechanistic models such as quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) provide insights into the TME dynamics and predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in virtual patient populations/digital twins but require vast amounts of multimodal data for parameterization. Large-scale datasets characterizing the TME are available due to recent advances in bioinformatics for multi-omics data. Here, we discuss the perspectives of leveraging omics-derived bioinformatics estimates to inform QSP models and circumvent the challenges of model calibration and validation in immuno-oncology.

Emulation of Quantitative Systems Pharmacology models to accelerate virtual population inference in immuno-oncology

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) models are increasingly being applied for target discovery and dose selection in immuno-oncology (IO). Typical application involves virtual trial, a simulation of a virtual population of hundreds of model instances with model inputs reflecting individual variability. While the structure of the model and initial parameterisation are based on literature describing the underlying biology, calibration of the virtual population by existing clinical data is frequently required to create tumour and patient population specific model instances. Since comparison of a virtual trial with clinical output requires hundreds of large-scale, non-linear model evaluations, the inference of a virtual population is computationally expensive, frequently becoming a bottleneck. Here, we present novel approach to virtual population inference in IO using emulation of the QSP model and an objective function based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics to maximise congruence of simulated and observed clinical tumour size distributions. We sample the parameter space of a QSP IO model to collect a set of tumour growth time profiles. We evaluate performance of several machine learning approaches in interpolating these time profiles and create a surrogate model, which computes tumor growth profiles faster than the original model and allows examination of tens of millions of virtual patients. We use the surrogate model to infer a virtual population maximising congruence with the waterfall plot of a pembrolizumab clinical trial. We believe that our approach is applicable not only in QSP IO, but also in other applications where virtual populations need to be inferred for computationally expensive mechanistic models.

Pediatric oncology drug development and dosage optimization

Oncology drug discovery and development has always been an area facing many challenges. Phase 1 oncology studies are typically small, open-label, sequential studies enrolling a small sample of adult patients (i.e., 3-6 patients/cohort) in dose escalation. Pediatric evaluations typically lag behind the adult development program. The pediatric starting dose is traditionally referenced on the recommended phase 2 dose in adults with the incorporation of body size scaling. The size of the study is also small and dependent upon the prevalence of the disease in the pediatric population. Similar to adult development, the dose is escalated or de-escalated until reaching the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) that also provides desired biological activities or efficacy. The escalation steps and identification of MTD are often rule-based and do not incorporate all the available information, such as pharmacokinetic (PK), pharmacodynamic (PD), tolerability and efficacy data. Therefore, it is doubtful if the MTD approach is optimal to determine the dosage. Hence, it is important to evaluate whether there is an optimal dosage below the MTD, especially considering the emerging complexity of combination therapies and the long-term tolerability and safety of the treatments. Identification of an optimal dosage is also vital not only for adult patients but for pediatric populations as well. Dosage-finding is much more challenging for pediatric populations due to the limited patient population and differences among the pediatric age range in terms of maturation and ontogeny that could impact PK. Many sponsors defer the pediatric strategy as they are often perplexed by the challenges presented by pediatric oncology drug development (model of action relevancy to pediatric population, budget, timeline and regulatory requirements). This leads to a limited number of approved drugs for pediatric oncology patients. This review article provides the current regulatory landscape, incentives and how they impact pediatric drug discovery and development. We also consider different pediatric cancers and potential clinical trial challenges/opportunities when designing pediatric clinical trials. An outline of how quantitative methods such as pharmacometrics/modelling & simulation can support the dosage-finding and justification is also included. Finally, we provide some reflections that we consider helpful to accelerate pediatric drug discovery and development.

Informing virtual clinical trials of hepatocellular carcinoma with spatial multi-omics analysis of a human neoadjuvant immunotherapy clinical trial

Human clinical trials are important tools to advance novel systemic therapies improve treatment outcomes for cancer patients. The few durable treatment options have led to a critical need to advance new therapeutics in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recent human clinical trials have shown that new combination immunotherapeutic regimens provide unprecedented clinical response in a subset of patients. Computational methods that can simulate tumors from mathematical equations describing cellular and molecular interactions are emerging as promising tools to simulate the impact of therapy entirely in silico. To facilitate designing dosing regimen and identifying potential biomarkers, we developed a new computational model to track tumor progression at organ scale while reflecting the spatial heterogeneity in the tumor at tissue scale in HCC. This computational model is called a spatial quantitative systems pharmacology (spQSP) platform and it is also designed to simulate the effects of combination immunotherapy. We then validate the results from the spQSP system by leveraging real-world spatial multi-omics data from a neoadjuvant HCC clinical trial combining anti-PD-1 immunotherapy and a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) cabozantinib. The model output is compared with spatial data from Imaging Mass Cytometry (IMC). Both IMC data and simulation results suggest closer proximity between CD8 T cell and macrophages among non-responders while the reverse trend was observed for responders. The analyses also imply wider dispersion of immune cells and less scattered cancer cells in responders' samples. We also compared the model output with Visium spatial transcriptomics analyses of samples from post-treatment tumor resections in the original clinical trial. Both spatial transcriptomic data and simulation results identify the role of spatial patterns of tumor vasculature and TGFβ in tumor and immune cell interactions. To our knowledge, this is the first spatial tumor model for virtual clinical trials at a molecular scale that is grounded in high-throughput spatial multi-omics data from a human clinical trial.

A transcriptome-informed QSP model of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer identifies predictive biomarkers for PD-1 inhibition

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), a highly metastatic breast cancer subtype, has limited treatment options. While a small number of patients attain clinical benefit with single-agent checkpoint inhibitors, identifying these patients before the therapy remains challenging. Here, we developed a transcriptome-informed quantitative systems pharmacology model of metastatic TNBC by integrating heterogenous metastatic tumors. In silico clinical trial with an anti-PD-1 drug, pembrolizumab, predicted that several features, such as the density of antigen-presenting cells, the fraction of cytotoxic T cells in lymph nodes, and the richness of cancer clones in tumors, could serve individually as biomarkers but had a higher predictive power as combinations of two biomarkers. We showed that PD-1 inhibition neither consistently enhanced all antitumorigenic factors nor suppressed all protumorigenic factors but ultimately reduced the tumor carrying capacity. Collectively, our predictions suggest several candidate biomarkers that might effectively predict the response to pembrolizumab monotherapy and potential therapeutic targets to develop treatment strategies for metastatic TNBC.

Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition

Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.

Incorporating lesion-to-lesion heterogeneity into early oncology decision making

RECISTv1.1 (Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors) is the most commonly used response grading criteria in early oncology trials. In this perspective, we argue that RECISTv1.1 is ambiguous regarding lesion-to-lesion variation that can introduce bias in decision making. We show theoretical examples of how lesion-to-lesion variability causes bias in RECISTv1.1, leading to misclassification of patient response. Next, we review immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) clinical trial data and find that lesion-to-lesion heterogeneity is widespread in ICI-treated patients. We illustrate the implications of ignoring lesion-to-lesion heterogeneity in interpreting biomarker data, selecting treatments for patients with progressive disease, and go/no-go decisions in drug development. Further, we propose that Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) models can aid in developing better metrics of patient response and treatment efficacy by capturing patient responses robustly by considering lesion-to-lesion heterogeneity. Overall, we believe patient response evaluation with an appreciation of lesion-to-lesion heterogeneity can potentially improve decision-making at the early stage of oncology drug development and benefit patient care.

Towards systems immunology of critical illness at scale: from single cell 'omics to digital twins

Single-cell 'omics methodology has yielded unprecedented insights based largely on data-centric informatics for reducing, and thus interpreting, massive datasets. In parallel, parsimonious mathematical modeling based on abstractions of pathobiology has also yielded major insights into inflammation and immunity, with these models being extended to describe multi-organ disease pathophysiology as the basis of 'digital twins' and in silico clinical trials. The integration of these distinct methods at scale can drive both basic and translational advances, especially in the context of critical illness, including diseases such as COVID-19. Here, I explore achievements and argue the challenges that are inherent to the integration of data-driven and mechanistic modeling approaches, highlighting the potential of modeling-based strategies for rational immune system reprogramming.

Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition

Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.

Asia-Inclusive Clinical Research and Development Enabled by Translational Science and Quantitative Clinical Pharmacology: Toward a Culture That Challenges the Status Quo

Access lag to innovative therapies in Asian populations continues to present a challenge to global health. Recent progressive changes in the global regulatory landscape, including newer guidelines, are enabling simultaneous global drug development and near-simultaneous global drug registration. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) E17 guideline outlines general principles for the design and analysis of multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs). We posit that translational research and quantitative clinical pharmacology tools are core enablers for Asia-inclusive global drug development aligned with ICH E17 principles. Assessment of ethnic sensitivity should be initiated early in the development lifecycle to inform the need for, and extent of, Asian phase I ethno-bridging data. Relevant ethno-bridging data may be generated as standalone Asian phase I trials, as part of Western First-In-Human trials, or under accelerated development settings as a lead-in phase in an MRCT. Quantitative understanding of human clearance mechanisms and pharmacogenetic factors is vital to forecasting ethnic sensitivity in drug exposure using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models. Stratification factors to control heterogeneity in MRCTs can be identified by reverse translational research incorporating pharmacometric disease models and model-based meta-analyses. Because epidemiological variations can extend to the molecular level, quantitative systems pharmacology models may be useful in forecasting how molecular variation in therapeutic targets or pathway proteins across populations might impact treatment outcomes. Through prospective evaluation of conservation in drug- and disease-related intrinsic and extrinsic factors, a pooled East Asian region can be implemented in Asia-inclusive MRCTs to maximize efficiency in substantiating evidence of benefit-risk for the region at-large with a Totality of Evidence approach.

Virtual clinical trials of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 immunotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma using a quantitative systems pharmacology model

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of primary liver cancer and is the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Most patients with HCC are diagnosed at an advanced stage, and the median survival for patients with advanced HCC treated with modern systemic therapy is less than 2 years. This leaves the advanced stage patients with limited treatment options. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or its ligand, are widely used in the treatment of HCC and are associated with durable responses in a subset of patients. ICIs targeting cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) also have clinical activity in HCC. Combination therapy of nivolumab (anti-PD-1) and ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) is the first treatment option for HCC to be approved by Food and Drug Administration that targets more than one immune checkpoints.

METHODS

In this study, we used the framework of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) to perform a virtual clinical trial for nivolumab and ipilimumab in HCC patients. Our model incorporates detailed biological mechanisms of interactions of immune cells and cancer cells leading to antitumor response. To conduct virtual clinical trial, we generate virtual patient from a cohort of 5,000 proposed patients by extending recent algorithms from literature. The model was calibrated using the data of the clinical trial CheckMate 040 (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01658878).

RESULTS

Retrospective analyses were performed for different immune checkpoint therapies as performed in CheckMate 040. Using machine learning approach, we predict the importance of potential biomarkers for immune blockade therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first QSP model for HCC with ICIs and the predictions are consistent with clinically observed outcomes. This study demonstrates that using a mechanistic understanding of the underlying pathophysiology, QSP models can facilitate patient selection and design clinical trials with improved success.

CYTOCON: The manually curated database of human in vivo cell and molecule concentrations

Cell and cYTOkine CONcentrations DataBase (CYTOCON DB) is a project undertaken by the InSysBio team and aimed at the development of a database that allows collecting, processing, and visualizing publicly available in vivo human data on baseline concentrations of cells, cytokines, chemokines, and other molecules. Besides manual curation, an important feature of CYTOCON is that most values found in papers are converted from a huge variety of original units (i.e., mg/ml and number of cells per mm² of biopsy surface section) to unified units: "pM" for cytokine and "kcell/L" for cell concentration. These features of the database can help researchers facilitate the creation and calibration of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models. Possible applications can be: estimation of the average value or variability of the cell, cytokine or chemokine concentrations for patient groups with different characteristics, such as age, gender, disease severity, disease subtype, etc.; and analysis of correlations among the cell, cytokine, or chemokine concentrations in patients with different characteristics, such as severity of the disease.

Dynamics of tumor-associated macrophages in a quantitative systems pharmacology model of immunotherapy in triple-negative breast cancer

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling is an emerging mechanistic computational approach that couples drug pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and the course of disease progression. It has begun to play important roles in drug development for complex diseases such as cancer, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The combination of the anti-PD-L1 antibody atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel has shown clinical activity in advanced TNBC with PD-L1-positive tumor-infiltrating immune cells. As tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) serve as major contributors to the immuno-suppressive tumor microenvironment, we incorporated the dynamics of TAMs into our previously published QSP model to investigate their impact on cancer treatment. We show that through proper calibration, the model captures the macrophage heterogeneity in the tumor microenvironment while maintaining its predictive power of the trial results at the population level. Despite its high mechanistic complexity, the modularized QSP platform can be readily reproduced, expanded for new species of interest, and applied in clinical trial simulation.

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A mechanistic model of quantitative systems pharmacology in immuno-oncology

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Dynamics of tumor-associated macrophages are integrated into our previous work

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Conducting in silico clinical trials to predict clinical response to cancer therapy

Application of different approaches to generate virtual patient populations for the quantitative systems pharmacology model of erythropoiesis

In a standard situation, a quantitative systems pharmacology model describes a "reference patient," and the model parameters are fixed values allowing only the mean values to be described. However, the results of clinical trials include a description of variability in patients' responses to a drug, which is typically expressed in terms of conventional statistical parameters, such as standard deviations (SDs) from mean values. Therefore, in this study, we propose and compare four different approaches: (1) Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC); (2) model fitting to Monte Carlo sample; (3) population of clones; (4) stochastically bounded selection to generate virtual patient populations based on experimentally measured mean data and SDs. We applied these approaches to generate virtual patient populations in the QSP model of erythropoiesis. According to the results of our research, stochastically bounded selection showed slightly better results than the other three methods as it allowed the description of any number of patients from clinical trials and could be applied in the case of complex models with a large number of variable parameters.

Simulations of tumor growth and response to immunotherapy by coupling a spatial agent-based model with a whole-patient quantitative systems pharmacology model

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models and spatial agent-based models (ABM) are powerful and efficient approaches for the analysis of biological systems and for clinical applications. Although QSP models are becoming essential in discovering predictive biomarkers and developing combination therapies through in silico virtual trials, they are inadequate to capture the spatial heterogeneity and randomness that characterize complex biological systems, and specifically the tumor microenvironment. Here, we extend our recently developed spatial QSP (spQSP) model to analyze tumor growth dynamics and its response to immunotherapy at different spatio-temporal scales. In the model, the tumor spatial dynamics is governed by the ABM, coupled to the QSP model, which includes the following compartments: central (blood system), tumor, tumor-draining lymph node, and peripheral (the rest of the organs and tissues). A dynamic recruitment of T cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) from the QSP central compartment has been implemented as a function of the spatial distribution of cancer cells. The proposed QSP-ABM coupling methodology enables the spQSP model to perform as a coarse-grained model at the whole-tumor scale and as an agent-based model at the regions of interest (ROIs) scale. Thus, we exploit the spQSP model potential to characterize tumor growth, identify T cell hotspots, and perform qualitative and quantitative descriptions of cell density profiles at the invasive front of the tumor. Additionally, we analyze the effects of immunotherapy at both whole-tumor and ROI scales under different tumor growth and immune response conditions. A digital pathology computational analysis of triple-negative breast cancer specimens is used as a guide for modeling the immuno-architecture of the invasive front.

Deciphering albumin-directed drug delivery by imaging

Albumin is the most abundant plasma protein, exhibits extended circulating half-life, and its properties have long been exploited for diagnostics and therapies. Many drugs intrinsically bind albumin or have been designed to do so, yet questions remain about true rate limiting factors that govern albumin-based transport and their pharmacological impacts, particularly in advanced solid cancers. Imaging techniques have been central to quantifying - at a molecular and single-cell level - the impact of mechanisms such as phagocytic immune cell signaling, FcRn-mediated recycling, oncogene-driven macropinocytosis, and albumin-drug interactions on spatial albumin deposition and related pharmacology. Macroscopic imaging of albumin-binding probes quantifies vessel structure, permeability, and supports efficiently targeted molecular imaging. Albumin-based imaging in patients and animal disease models thus offers a strategy to understand mechanisms, guide drug development and personalize treatments.

Understanding virtual patients efficiently and rigorously by combining machine learning with dynamical modelling

Individual biological organisms are characterized by daunting heterogeneity, which precludes describing or understanding populations of ‘patients’ with a single mathematical model. Recently, the field of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) has adopted the notion of virtual patients (VPs) to cope with this challenge. A typical population of VPs represents the behavior of a heterogeneous patient population with a distribution of parameter values over a mathematical model of fixed structure. Though this notion of VPs is a powerful tool to describe patients’ heterogeneity, the analysis and understanding of these VPs present new challenges to systems pharmacologists. Here, using a model of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis, we show that an integrated pipeline that combines machine learning (ML) and bifurcation analysis can be used to effectively and efficiently analyse the behaviors observed in populations of VPs. Compared with local sensitivity analyses, ML allows us to capture and analyse the contributions of simultaneous changes of multiple model parameters. Following up with bifurcation analysis, we are able to provide rigorous mechanistic insight regarding the influences of ML-identified parameters on the dynamical system’s behaviors. In this work, we illustrate the utility of this pipeline and suggest that its wider adoption will facilitate the use of VPs in the practice of systems pharmacology.

Plant Derived Bioactive Compounds, Their Anti-Cancer Effects and In Silico Approaches as an Alternative Target Treatment Strategy for Breast Cancer: An Updated Overview

Cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases that occur worldwide, among which breast cancer is the second leading cause of death in women. The subtypes are associated with differences in the outcome and were selected for treatments according to the estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor. Triple-negative breast cancer, one of the subtypes of breast cancer, is difficult to treat and can even lead to death. If breast cancer is not treated during the initial stages, it may spread to nearby organs, a process called metastasis, through the blood or lymph system. For in vitro studies, MCF-7, MDA-MB-231, MDA-MB-468, and T47B are the most commonly used breast cancer cell lines. Clinically, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are usually expensive and can also cause side effects. To overcome these issues, medicinal plants could be the best alternative for chemotherapeutic drugs with fewer side effects and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, the genes involved in breast cancer can be regulated and synergized with signaling molecules to suppress the proliferation of breast cancer cells. In addition, nanoparticles encapsulating (nano-encapsulation) medicinal plant extracts showed a significant reduction in the apoptotic and cytotoxic activities of breast cancer cells. This present review mainly speculates an overview of the native medicinal plant derived anti-cancerous compounds with its efficiency, types and pathways involved in breast cancer along with its genes, the mechanism of breast cancer brain metastasis, chemoresistivity and its mechanism, bioinformatics approaches which could be an effective alternative for drug discovery.

Computational Approaches for Supporting Combination Therapy in the Post-Aducanumab Era in Alzheimer’s Disease

With the approval of aducanumab on the “Accelerated Approval Pathway” and the recognition of amyloid load as a surrogate marker, new successful therapeutic approaches will be driven by combination therapy as was the case in oncology after the launch of immune checkpoint inhibitors. However, the sheer number of therapeutic combinations substantially complicates the search for optimal combinations. Data-driven approaches based on large databases or electronic health records can identify optimal combinations and often using artificial intelligence or machine learning to crunch through many possible combinations but are limited to the pharmacology of existing marketed drugs and are highly dependent upon the quality of the training sets. Knowledge-driven in silico modeling approaches use multi-scale biophysically realistic models of neuroanatomy, physiology, and pathology and can be personalized with individual patient comedications, disease state, and genotypes to create ‘virtual twin patients’. Such models simulate effects on action potential dynamics of anatomically informed neuronal circuits driving functional clinical readouts. Informed by data-driven approaches this knowledge-driven modeling could systematically and quantitatively simulate all possible target combinations for a maximal synergistic effect on a clinically relevant functional outcome. This approach seamlessly integrates pharmacokinetic modeling of different therapeutic modalities. A crucial requirement to constrain the parameters is the access to preferably anonymized individual patient data from completed clinical trials with various selective compounds. We believe that the combination of data- and knowledge driven modeling could be a game changer to find a cure for this devastating disease that affects the most complex organ of the universe.

Application of quantitative systems pharmacology to guide the optimal dosing of COVID-19 vaccines

Optimal use and distribution of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines involves adjustments of dosing. Due to the rapidly evolving pandemic, such adjustments often need to be introduced before full efficacy data are available. As demonstrated in other areas of drug development, quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is well placed to guide such extrapolation in a rational and timely manner. Here, we propose for the first time how QSP can be applied in the context of COVID-19 vaccine development.

Bispecific antibodies: A guide to model informed drug discovery and development

Affinity (KD) optimization of monoclonal antibodies is one of the factors that impacts the stoichiometric binding and the corresponding efficacy of a drug. This impacts the dose and the dosing regimen, making the optimum KD a critical component of drug discovery and development. Its importance is further enhanced for bispecific antibodies, where affinity of the drug needs to be optimized with respect to two targets. Mathematical modeling can have critical impact on lead compound optimization. Here we build on previous work of using mathematical models to facilitate lead compound selection, expanding analysis from two membrane bound targets to soluble targets as well. Our analysis reveals the importance of three factors for lead compound optimization: drug affinity to both targets, target turnover rates, and target distribution throughout the body. We describe a method that leverages this information to help make early stage decisions on whether to optimize affinity, and if so, which arm of the bispecific should be optimized. We apply the proposed approach to a variety of scenarios and illustrate the ability to make improved decisions in each case. We integrate results to develop a bispecific antibody KD optimization guide that can be used to improve resource allocation for lead compound selection, accelerating advancement of better compounds. We conclude with a discussion of possible ways to assess the necessary levels of target engagement for affecting disease as part of an integrative approach for model-informed drug discovery and development.

Using Stock-Flow Diagrams to Visualize Theranostic Approaches to Solid Tumors in Personalized Nanomedicine

Personalized nanomedicine has rapidly evolved over the past decade to tailor the diagnosis and treatment of several diseases to the individual characteristics of each patient. In oncology, iron oxide nano-biomaterials (NBMs) have become a promising biomedical product in targeted drug delivery as well as in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a contrast agent and magnetic hyperthermia. The combination of diagnosis and therapy in a single nano-enabled product (so-called theranostic agent) in the personalized nanomedicine has been investigated so far mostly in terms of local events, causes-effects, and mutual relationships. However, this approach could fail in capturing the overall complexity of a system, whereas systemic approaches can be used to study the organization of phenomena in terms of dynamic configurations, independent of the nature, type, or spatial and temporal scale of the elements of the system. In medicine, complex descriptions of diseases and their evolution are daily assessed in clinical settings, which can be thus considered as complex systems exhibiting self-organizing and non-linear features, to be investigated through the identification of dynamic feedback-driven behaviors. In this study, a Systems Thinking (ST) approach is proposed to represent the complexity of the theranostic modalities in the context of the personalized nanomedicine through the setting up of a stock-flow diagram. Specifically, the interconnections between the administration of magnetite NBMs for diagnosis and therapy of tumors are fully identified, emphasizing the role of the feedback loops. The presented approach has revealed its suitability for further application in the medical field. In particular, the obtained stock-flow diagram can be adapted for improving the future knowledge of complex systems in personalized nanomedicine as well as in other nanosafety areas.

The Role of Mathematical Models in Immuno-Oncology: Challenges and Future Perspectives

Immuno-oncology (IO) focuses on the ability of the immune system to detect and eliminate cancer cells. Since the approval of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, immunotherapies have become a major player in oncology treatment and, in 2021, represented the highest number of approved drugs in the field. In spite of this, there is still a fraction of patients that do not respond to these therapies and develop resistance mechanisms. In this sense, mathematical models offer an opportunity to identify predictive biomarkers, optimal dosing schedules and rational combinations to maximize clinical response. This work aims to outline the main therapeutic targets in IO and to provide a description of the different mathematical approaches (top-down, middle-out, and bottom-up) integrating the cancer immunity cycle with immunotherapeutic agents in clinical scenarios. Among the different strategies, middle-out models, which combine both theoretical and evidence-based description of tumor growth and immunological cell-type dynamics, represent an optimal framework to evaluate new IO strategies.

How Should Cancer Models Be Constructed?

Choosing and optimizing treatment strategies for cancer requires capturing its complex dynamics sufficiently well for understanding but without being overwhelmed. Mathematical models are essential to achieve this understanding, and we discuss the challenge of choosing the right level of complexity to address the full range of tumor complexity from growth, the generation of tumor heterogeneity, and interactions within tumors and with treatments and the tumor microenvironment. We discuss the differences between conceptual and descriptive models, and compare the use of predator-prey models, evolutionary game theory, and dynamic precision medicine approaches in the face of uncertainty about mechanisms and parameter values. Although there is of course no one-size-fits-all approach, we conclude that broad and flexible thinking about cancer, based on combined modeling approaches, will play a key role in finding creative and improved treatments.

Beyond the single average tumor: Understanding IO combinations using a clinical QSP model that incorporates heterogeneity in patient response

A quantitative systems pharmacology model for metastatic melanoma was developed for immuno‐oncology with the goal of predicting efficacy of combination checkpoint therapy with pembrolizumab and ipilimumab. This literature‐based model is developed at multiple scales: (i) tumor and immune cell interactions at a lesion level; (ii) multiple heterogeneous target lesions, nontarget lesion growth, and appearance of new metastatic lesion at a patient level; and (iii) interpatient differences at a population level. The model was calibrated to pembrolizumab and ipilimumab monotherapy in patients with melanoma from Robert et al., specifically, waterfall plot showing target lesion response and overall response rate (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [RECIST] version 1.1), which additionally considers nontarget lesion growth and appearance of new metastatic lesions. We then used the model to predict waterfall and RECIST version 1.1 for combination treatment reported in Long et al. A key insight from this work was that nontarget lesions growth and appearance of new metastatic lesion contributed significantly to disease progression, despite reduction in target lesions. Further, the lesion level simulations of combination therapy show substantial efficacy in warm lesions (intermediary immunogenicity) but limited advantage of combination in both cold and hot lesions (low and high immunogenicity). Because many patients with metastatic disease are expected to have a mixture of these lesions, disease progression in such patients may be driven by a subset of cold lesions that are unresponsive to checkpoint inhibitors. These patients may benefit more from the combinations which include therapies to target cold lesions than double checkpoint inhibitors.

Application of Machine Learning in Translational Medicine: Current Status and Future Opportunities

The exponential increase in our ability to harness multi-dimensional biological and clinical data from experimental to real-world settings has transformed pharmaceutical research and development in recent years, with increasing applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). Patient-centered iterative forward and reverse translation is at the heart of precision medicine discovery and development across the continuum from target validation to optimization of pharmacotherapy. Integration of advanced analytics into the practice of Translational Medicine is now a fundamental enabler to fully exploit information contained in diverse sources of big data sets such as “omics” data, as illustrated by deep characterizations of the genome, transcriptome, proteome, metabolome, microbiome, and exposome. In this commentary, we provide an overview of ML applications in drug discovery and development, aligned with the three strategic pillars of Translational Medicine (target, patient, dose) and offer perspectives on their potential to transform the science and practice of the discipline. Opportunities for integrating ML approaches into the discipline of Pharmacometrics are discussed and will revolutionize the practice of model-informed drug discovery and development. Finally, we posit that joint efforts of Clinical Pharmacology, Bioinformatics, and Biomarker Technology experts are vital in cross-functional team settings to realize the promise of AI/ML-enabled Translational and Precision Medicine.

The Combination of Cell Cultured Technology and In Silico Model to Inform the Drug Development

Human-derived in vitro models can provide high-throughput efficacy and toxicity data without a species gap in drug development. Challenges are still encountered regarding the full utilisation of massive data in clinical settings. The lack of translated methods hinders the reliable prediction of clinical outcomes. Therefore, in this study, in silico models were proposed to tackle these obstacles from in vitro to in vivo translation, and the current major cell culture methods were introduced, such as human-induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs), 3D cells, organoids, and microphysiological systems (MPS). Furthermore, the role and applications of several in silico models were summarised, including the physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK), pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model (PK/PD), quantitative systems pharmacology model (QSP), and virtual clinical trials. These credible translation cases will provide templates for subsequent in vitro to in vivo translation. We believe that synergising high-quality in vitro data with existing models can better guide drug development and clinical use.

A Systematic Review of the Efforts and Hindrances of Modeling and Simulation of CAR T-cell Therapy

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is an immunotherapy that has recently become highly instrumental in the fight against life-threatening diseases. A variety of modeling and computational simulation efforts have addressed different aspects of CAR T-cell therapy, including T-cell activation, T- and malignant cell population dynamics, therapeutic cost-effectiveness strategies, and patient survival. In this article, we present a systematic review of those efforts, including mathematical, statistical, and stochastic models employing a wide range of algorithms, from differential equations to machine learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first review of all such models studying CAR T-cell therapy. In this review, we provide a detailed summary of the strengths, limitations, methodology, data used, and data gap in currently published models. This information may help in designing and building better models for enhanced prediction and assessment of the benefit-risk balance associated with novel CAR T-cell therapies, as well as with the data need for building such models.

Quantitative systems pharmacology model predictions for efficacy of atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel in triple-negative breast cancer

Background

Immune checkpoint blockade therapy has clearly shown clinical activity in patients with triple-negative breast cancer, but less than half of the patients benefit from the treatments. While a number of ongoing clinical trials are investigating different combinations of checkpoint inhibitors and chemotherapeutic agents, predictive biomarkers that identify patients most likely to benefit remains one of the major challenges. Here we present a modular quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) platform for immuno-oncology that incorporates detailed mechanisms of immune–cancer cell interactions to make efficacy predictions and identify predictive biomarkers for treatments using atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel.

Methods

A QSP model was developed based on published data of triple-negative breast cancer. With the model, we generated a virtual patient cohort to conduct in silico virtual clinical trials and make retrospective analyses of the pivotal IMpassion130 trial that led to the accelerated approval of atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel for patients with programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) positive triple-negative breast cancer. Available data from clinical trials were used for model calibration and validation.

Results

With the calibrated virtual patient cohort based on clinical data from the placebo comparator arm of the IMpassion130 trial, we made efficacy predictions and identified potential predictive biomarkers for the experimental arm of the trial using the proposed QSP model. The model predictions are consistent with clinically reported efficacy endpoints and correlated immune biomarkers. We further performed a series of virtual clinical trials to compare different doses and schedules of the two drugs for simulated therapeutic optimization.

Conclusions

This study provides a QSP platform, which can be used to generate virtual patient cohorts and conduct virtual clinical trials. Our findings demonstrate its potential for making efficacy predictions for immunotherapies and chemotherapies, identifying predictive biomarkers, and guiding future clinical trial designs.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling of PBMC-Humanized Mouse to Facilitate Preclinical Immuno-oncology Drug Development

Progress in immunotherapy has resulted in explosively increased new therapeutic interventions and they have shown promising results in the treatment of cancer. Animal testing is performed to provide preliminary efficacy and safety data for drugs under development prior to clinical trials. However, translational challenges remain for preclinical studies such as study design and the relevance of animal models to humans. Hence, only a small fraction of cancer patients showed response. The explosion of drug candidates and therapies makes preclinical assessment of every plausible option impossible, but it can be easily tested using Quantitative System Pharmacology (QSP) models. Here, we developed a QSP model for humanized mice. Tumor growth dynamics, T cell dynamics, cytokine release, immune checkpoint expression, and drug administration were modeled and calibrated using experimental data. Tumor growth inhibition data were used for model validation. Pharmacokinetics of T cell engager (TCE), tumor growth profile, T cell expansion in the blood and infiltration into tumor, T cell dissemination from primary tumor, cytokine release profile, and expression of additional PD-L1 induced by IFN-γ were modeled and calibrated using a variety of experimental data and showed good consistency. Mouse-specific response to T cell engager monotherapy also showed the key features of in vivo efficacy of TCE. This novel QSP model, designed for human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) engrafted xenograft mice, incorporating the most critical components of the mouse model with key cancer and immune cells, can become an integral part of preclinical drug development.