Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail

Parental thermal environment controls the offspring phenotype in Brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis): insights from a transcriptomic study

Brook charr is a cold-water species which is highly sensitive to increased water temperatures, such as those associated with climate change. Environmental variation can potentially induce phenotypic changes that are inherited across generations, for instance, via epigenetic mechanisms. Here, we tested whether parental thermal regimes (intergenerational plasticity) and offspring-rearing temperatures (within-generational plasticity) modify the brain transcriptome of Brook charr progeny (fry stage). Parents were exposed to either cold or warm temperatures during final gonad maturation and their progeny were reared at 5 or 8 °C during the first stages of development. Illumina Novaseq6000 was used to sequence the brain transcriptome at the yolk sac resorption stage. The number of differentially expressed genes was very low when comparing fry reared at different temperatures (79 differentially expressed genes). In contrast, 9,050 differentially expressed genes were significantly differentially expressed between fry issued from parents exposed to either cold or warm temperatures. There was a significant downregulation of processes related to neural and synaptic activity in fry originating from the warm parental group vs fry from the cold parental one. We also observed significant upregulation of DNA methylation genes and of the most salient processes associated with compensation to warming, such as metabolism, cellular response to stress, and adaptive immunity.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Decoding the spread of non-indigenous fishes in the Mediterranean Sea

The ocean is dynamically changing due to the influence of climate processes and human activities. The construction of the Suez Canal in the late nineteenth century opened the Pandora's box by facilitating the dispersal of Red Sea species in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we developed an open-source spatio-temporal numerical analysis framework to decodify the complex spread of Mediterranean non-indigenous fish species (NIS) that entered through the Suez Canal. We utilized 772 historical detection records of 130 NIS to disentangle their dynamic spread through space and time. The results indicated that species follow a north-westward trajectory with an average expansion time step of 2.5 years. Additionally, we estimated the overall time for a NIS to reach the Central Mediterranean Sea from the Suez Canal at approximately 22 years. Based on the analysis, more than half of the introduced fishes have been established in less than 10 years. Finally, we proceeded in the cross-validation of our results using actual spread patterns of invasive fishes of the Mediterranean Sea, resulting up to 90% of temporal and spatial agreement. The methodology and the findings presented herein may contribute to management initiatives in highly invaded regions around the globe.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

The impacts of thermal heterogeneity across microhabitats on post-settlement selection of intertidal mussels

Rapid genetic selection is critical for allowing natural populations to adapt to different thermal environments such as those that occur across intertidal microhabitats with high degrees of thermal heterogeneity. To address the question of how thermal regimes influence selection and adaptation in the intertidal black mussel Mytilisepta virgata, we continuously recorded environmental temperatures in both tidal pools and emergent rock microhabitats and then assessed genetic differentiation, gene expression patterns, RNA editing level, and cardiac performance. Our results showed that the subpopulations in the tidal pool and on emergent rocks had different genetic structures and exhibited different physiological and molecular responses to high-temperature stress. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity across microhabitats is important for driving genetic differentiation and shed light on the importance of post-settlement selection for adaptively modifying the genetic composition and thermal responses of these intertidal mussels.

Commonly collected thermal performance data can inform species distributions in a data-limited invader

Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat for F. pardalis there. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits- thermal performance, tolerance, and preference-of F. pardalis and the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions of F. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here.

Evenness, biodiversity, and ecosystem function of intertidal communities along the Italian coasts: Experimental short-term response to ambient and extreme air temperatures

Biodiversity can promote ecosystem functioning in both terrestrial and marine environments, emphasizing the necessity of biodiversity conservation in order to preserve critical ecosystem functions and associated services. However, the role of biodiversity in buffering ecosystem functioning under extreme events caused by climate change remains a major scientific issue, especially for intertidal systems experiencing stressors from both terrestrial and marine drivers. We performed a regional-scale field experiment along the Italian coast to investigate the response of unmanipulated intertidal communities (by using a natural biodiversity gradient) to low tide aerial exposure to both ambient and short-term extreme temperatures. We specifically investigated the relationship between Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) using different biodiversity indexes (species richness, functional diversity and evenness) and the response of the intertidal communities' ecosystem functioning (community respiration rates). Furthermore, we investigated which other environmental variables could influence the BEF relationship. We show that evenness explained a greater variation in intertidal community ecosystem functioning under both temperature conditions. Species richness (the most often used diversity metric in BEF research) was unrelated to ecosystem functioning, while functional diversity was significantly related to respiration under ambient but not extreme temperatures. We highlight the importance of the short-term thermal history of the communities (measured as body temperature) in the BEF relationship as it was consistently identified as the best predictor or response under both temperature conditions. However, Chlorophyll a in seawater and variation in sea surface temperature also contributed to the BEF relationship under ambient but not under extreme conditions, showing that short-duration climate-driven events can overcome local physiological adaptations. Our findings support the importance of the BEF relationship in intertidal communities, implying that systems with more diverse and homogeneous communities may be able to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures.

Finding the right thermal limit: a framework to reconcile ecological, physiological and methodological aspects of CTmax in ectotherms

Upper thermal limits (CTmax) are frequently used to parameterize the fundamental niche of ectothermic animals and to infer biogeographical distribution limits under current and future climate scenarios. However, there is considerable debate associated with the methodological, ecological and physiological definitions of CTmax. The recent (re)introduction of the thermal death time (TDT) model has reconciled some of these issues and now offers a solid mathematical foundation to model CTmax by considering both intensity and duration of thermal stress. Nevertheless, the physiological origin and boundaries of this temperature–duration model remain unexplored. Supported by empirical data, we here outline a reconciling framework that integrates the TDT model, which operates at stressful temperatures, with the classic thermal performance curve (TPC) that typically describes biological functions at permissive temperatures. Further, we discuss how the TDT model is founded on a balance between disruptive and regenerative biological processes that ultimately defines a critical boundary temperature (Tc) separating the TDT and TPC models. Collectively, this framework allows inclusion of both repair and accumulation of heat stress, and therefore also offers a consistent conceptual approach to understand the impact of high temperature under fluctuating thermal conditions. Further, this reconciling framework allows improved experimental designs to understand the physiological underpinnings and ecological consequences of ectotherm heat tolerance.

Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?

Shellfisheries of the intertidal and shallow subtidal infaunal bivalves Ruditapes decussatus, Ruditapes philippinarum, Venerupis corrugata and Cerastoderma edule are of great socio-economic importance (in terms of landings) in Europe, specifically in the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain). However, ocean warming may threaten these fisheries by modifying the geographic distribution of the species and thus affecting productive areas. The present study analysed the impact of rising ocean temperature on the geographical distribution of the thermal comfort areas of these bivalves throughout the 21st century. The Delft3D model was used to downscale climate data from CORDEX and CMIP5 and was run for July and August in three future periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2075-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The areas with optimal temperature conditions for shellfish harvesting located in the middle and outer parts of the rias may increase in the near future for R. decussatus, V. corrugata and C. edule and decrease in the far future for R. philippinarum. Moreover, shellfish beds located in the shallower areas of the inner parts of the Rías Baixas could be affected by increased water temperature, reducing the productive areas of the four species by the end of the century. The projected changes in thermal condition will probably lead to changes in shellfish harvesting modality (on foot or aboard vessels) with further socio-economic consequences.

Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean

Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.

Role of hydrodynamics in shaping chemical habitats and modulating the responses of coastal benthic systems to ocean global change

Marine coastal zones are highly productive, and dominated by engineer species (e.g. macrophytes, molluscs, corals) that modify the chemistry of their surrounding seawater via their metabolism, causing substantial fluctuations in oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, and nutrients. The magnitude of these biologically driven chemical fluctuations is regulated by hydrodynamics, can exceed values predicted for the future open ocean, and creates chemical patchiness in subtidal areas at various spatial (µm to meters) and temporal (minutes to months) scales. Although the role of hydrodynamics is well explored for planktonic communities, its influence as a crucial driver of benthic organism and community functioning is poorly addressed, particularly in the context of ocean global change. Hydrodynamics can directly modulate organismal physiological activity or indirectly influence an organism's performance by modifying its habitat. This review addresses recent developments in (i) the influence of hydrodynamics on the biological activity of engineer species, (ii) the description of chemical habitats resulting from the interaction between hydrodynamics and biological activity, (iii) the role of these chemical habitat as refugia against ocean acidification and deoxygenation, and (iv) how species living in such chemical habitats may respond to ocean global change. Recommendations are provided to integrate the effect of hydrodynamics and environmental fluctuations in future research, to better predict the responses of coastal benthic ecosystems to ongoing ocean global change.

Integrating functional traits into correlative species distribution models to investigate the vulnerability of marine human activities to climate change

Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Marine aquaculture is one among the most economic anthropogenic activities threatened by multiple stressors and in turn, by increasing hard artificial substrates at sea would facilitate the expansion of these problematic organisms and face negative consequences regarding facilities management and farmed organisms' welfare. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are considered powerful tools for forecasting the future occurrences and distributions of problematic species used to preventively aware stakeholders. In the current study, we propose the use of combined correlative SDMs and mechanistic models, based on individual thermal performance curve models calculated through non-linear least squares regression and Bayesian statistics (functional-SDM), as an ecological relevant tool to increase our ability to investigate the potential indirect effect of climate change on the distributions of harmful species for human activities at sea, taking aquaculture as a food productive example and the benthic cnidarian Pennaria disticha (one of the most pernicious fouling species in aquaculture) as model species. Our combined approach was able to improve the prediction ability of both mechanistic and correlative models to get more ecologically informed "whole" niche of the studied species. Incorporating the mechanistic links between the organisms' functional traits and their environments into SDMs through the use of a Bayesian functional-SDM approach would be a useful and reliable tool in early warning ecological systems, risk assessment and management actions focused on important economic activities and natural ecosystems conservation.

Different life stage, different risks: Thermal performance across the life cycle of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar in the face of climate change

Extending assessments of climate change-induced range shifts via correlative species distribution models by including species traits is crucial for conservation planning. However, comprehensive assessments of future distribution scenarios incorporating responses of biotic factors are poorly investigated. Therefore, the aim of our study was to extend the understanding about the combined usage of species traits data and species distribution models for different life stages and distribution scenarios. We combine global model predictions for the 2050s and thermal performances of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar under consideration of different life stages (adults, juveniles, eggs), timeframes (monthly, seasonally, yearly), and dispersal scenarios (no dispersal, free dispersal, restricted dispersal). We demonstrate that thermal performances of different life stages will either increase or decrease for certain time periods. Model predictions and thermal performances imply range declines and poleward shifts. Dispersal to suitable habitats will be an important factor mitigating warming effects; however, dams may block paths to areas linked to high performances. Our results emphasize enhanced inclusion of critical periods for species and proper dispersal solutions in conservation planning.

Physiological determinants of biogeography: The importance of metabolic depression to heat tolerance

A quantitative understanding of physiological thermal responses is vital for forecasting species distributional shifts in response to climate change. Many studies have focused on metabolic rate as a global metric for analyzing the sublethal effects of changing environments on physiology. Thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been suggested as a viable analytical framework, but standard TPCs may not fully capture physiological responses, due in part to failure to consider the process of metabolic depression. We derived a model based on the nonlinear regression of biological temperature-dependent rate processes and built a heart rate data set for 26 species of intertidal molluscs distributed from 33°S to ~40°N. We then calculated physiological thermal performance limits with continuous heating using T 1 / 2 H , the temperature at which heart rate is decreased to 50% of the maximal rate, as a more realistic measure of upper thermal limits. Results indicate that heat-induced metabolic depression of cardiac performance is a common adaptive response that allows tolerance of harsh environments. Furthermore, our model accounted for the high inter-individual variability in the shape of cardiac TPCs. We then used these TPCs to calculate physiological thermal safety margins (pTSM), the difference between the maximal operative temperature (95th percentile of field temperatures) and T 1 / 2 H of each individual. Using pTSMs, we developed a physiological species distribution model (pSDM) to forecast future geographic distributions. pSDM results indicate that climate-induced species range shifts are potentially less severe than predicted by a simple correlative SDM. Species with metabolic depression below the optimum temperature will be more thermal resistant at their warm trailing edges. High intraspecific variability further suggests that models based on species-level vulnerability to environmental change may be problematic. This multi-scale, mechanistic understanding that incorporates metabolic depression and inter-individual variability in thermal response enables better predictions about the relationship between thermal stress and species distributions.

Cool birds: facultative use by an introduced species of mechanical air conditioning systems during extremely hot outdoor conditions

Rapid climate change across the globe is having dramatic effects on wildlife. Responses of organisms to shifting thermal conditions often include physiological and behavioural accommodations, but to date these have been largely viewed and studied as naturally evolved phenomena (e.g. heat avoidance, sweating, panting) and not necessarily as strategies where animals exploit other anthropogenic conditions or resources. Moreover, the degree to which native versus introduced species show thermal plasticity has generated much conservation and ecological interest. We previously have observed introduced rosy-faced lovebirds (Agapornis roseicollis) perching in the relief-air vents on building faces in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan area, but doing so only during summer. Here, we show that such vent-perching events are significantly associated with extreme outdoor summer temperatures (when daily local highs routinely exceed 40°C). In fact, the temperature threshold at which we detected lovebirds starting to perch in cool air vents mirrors the upper range of the thermoneutral zone for this species. These results implicate novel, facultative use of an anthropogenic resource-industrial air-conditioning systems-by a recently introduced species (within the last 35 years) to cool down and survive extremely hot conditions in this urban 'heat-island' environment.

Effects of temperature on physiological performance and behavioral thermoregulation in an invasive fish, the round goby

Invasive species exert negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems on a global scale, which may be enhanced in the future by climate change. Knowledge of how invasive species respond physiologically and behaviorally to novel and changing environments can improve our understanding of which traits enable the ecological success of these species, and potentially facilitate mitigation efforts. We examined the effects of acclimation to temperatures ranging from 5 to 28°C on aerobic metabolic rates, upper temperature tolerance (critical thermal maximum, CTmax), as well as temperature preference (Tpref) and avoidance (Tavoid) of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), one of the most impactful invasive species in the world. We show that round goby maintained a high aerobic scope from 15 to 28°C; that is, the capacity to increase its aerobic metabolic rate above that of its maintenance metabolism remained high across a broad thermal range. Although CTmax increased relatively little with acclimation temperature compared with other species, Tpref and Tavoid were not affected by acclimation temperature at all, meaning that round goby maintained a large thermal safety margin (CTmax-Tavoid) across acclimation temperatures, indicating a high level of thermal resilience in this species. The unperturbed physiological performance and high thermal resilience were probably facilitated by high levels of phenotypic buffering, which can make species readily adaptable and ecologically competitive in novel and changing environments. We suggest that these physiological and behavioral traits could be common for invasive species, which would only increase their success under continued climate change.

Effects of temperature on physiological performance and behavioral thermoregulation in an invasive fish, the round goby

Invasive species exert negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems on a global scale, which may be enhanced in the future by climate change. Knowledge of how invasive species respond physiologically and behaviorally to novel and changing environments can improve our understanding of which traits enable the ecological success of these species, and potentially facilitate mitigation efforts. We examined the effects of acclimation to temperatures ranging from 5 to 28°C on aerobic metabolic rates, upper temperature tolerance (critical thermal maximum, CT_max), as well as temperature preference (T _pref) and avoidance (T _avoid) of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), one of the most impactful invasive species in the world. We show that round goby maintained a high aerobic scope from 15 to 28°C; that is, the capacity to increase its aerobic metabolic rate above that of its maintenance metabolism remained high across a broad thermal range. Although CT_max increased relatively little with acclimation temperature compared with other species, T _pref and T _avoid were not affected by acclimation temperature at all, meaning that round goby maintained a large thermal safety margin (CT_max-T _avoid) across acclimation temperatures, indicating a high level of thermal resilience in this species. The unperturbed physiological performance and high thermal resilience were probably facilitated by high levels of phenotypic buffering, which can make species readily adaptable and ecologically competitive in novel and changing environments. We suggest that these physiological and behavioral traits could be common for invasive species, which would only increase their success under continued climate change.

Antagonistic effects of intraspecific cooperation and interspecific competition on thermal performance

Understanding how climate-mediated biotic interactions shape thermal niche width is critical in an era of global change. Yet, most previous work on thermal niches has ignored detailed mechanistic information about the relationship between temperature and organismal performance, which can be described by a thermal performance curve. Here, we develop a model that predicts the width of thermal performance curves will be narrower in the presence of interspecific competitors, causing a species' optimal breeding temperature to diverge from that of its competitor. We test this prediction in the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis, confirming that the divergence in actual and optimal breeding temperatures is the result of competition with their primary competitor, blowflies. However, we further show that intraspecific cooperation enables beetles to outcompete blowflies by recovering their optimal breeding temperature. Ultimately, linking abiotic factors and biotic interactions on niche width will be critical for understanding species-specific responses to climate change.

Feeling the heat: Elevated temperature affects male display activity of a lekking grassland bird

Most species-climate models relate range margins to long-term mean climate but lack mechanistic understanding of the ecological or demographic processes underlying the climate response. We examined the case of a climatically limited edge-of-range population of a medium-sized grassland bird, for which climate responses may involve a behavioural trade-off between temperature stress and reproduction. We hypothesised that temperature will be a limiting factor for the conspicuous, male snort-call display behaviour, and high temperatures would reduce the display activity of male birds.

Using remote tracking technology with tri-axial accelerometers we classified and studied the display behaviour of 17 free-ranging male little bustards, Tetrax tetrax, at 5 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. Display behaviour was related to temperature using two classes of Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) at different temporal resolutions. GAMMs showed that temperature, time of the day and Julian date explained variation in display behaviour within the day, with birds snort-calling significantly less during higher temperatures. We also showed that variation in daily snort-call activity was related to average daytime temperatures, with our model predicting an average decrease in daytime snort-call display activity of up to 10.4% for the temperature increases projected by 2100 in this region due to global warming. For lekking birds and mammals undertaking energetically-costly displays in a warming climate, reduced display behaviour could impact inter- and intra-sex mating behaviour interactions through sexual selection and mate choice mechanisms, with possible consequences on mating and reproductive success. The study provides a reproducible example for how accelerometer data can be used to answer research questions with important conservation inferences related to the impacts of climate change on a range of taxonomic groups.

Maintenance of a Genetic Cline in the Barnacle Balanus glandula

The barnacle Balanus glandula is a broadly distributed species in the temperate northeastern Pacific that is notable for a robust genetic cline between about 36° and 40° N latitude. Prior work established the evolutionary origins of this pattern and proposed that it is maintained by environmental selection. In recent years, "climate velocity" studies in marine habitats have shown dramatic distributional shifts for many species as they track their preferred temperature range in a warming ocean. We re-sampled B. glandula across its entire geographic range to determine whether there has been any shift in this genetic distribution, a development signaling that temperature or other climate factors are maintaining this genetic cline. Additionally, we asked whether the spatially distributed mitochondrial lineages also vary in reproductive output with latitude, using location as a proxy for temperature and other coastal environmental factors. Here we show that although the distribution of the genetic cline has not appreciably changed, there is a notable association of decreased reproductive output at lower latitudes of the distribution in the "northern" lineage of B. glandula.

Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach

Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near-natural experimental approach

Climate change will not only shift environmental means but will also increase the intensity of extreme events, exerting additional stress on ecosystems. While field observations on the ecological consequences of heat waves are emerging, experimental evidence is rare, and lacking at the community level. Using a novel "near-natural" outdoor mesocosms approach, this study tested whether marine summer heat waves have detrimental consequences for macrofauna of a temperate coastal community, and whether sequential heat waves provoke an increase or decrease of sensitivity to thermal stress. Three treatments were applied, defined and characterized through a statistical analysis of 15 years of temperature records from the experimental site: (1) no heat wave, (2) two heat waves in June and July followed by a summer heat wave in August and (3) the summer heat wave only. Overall, 50% of the species showed positive, negative or positive/negative responses in either abundance and/or biomass. We highlight four possible ways in which single species responded to either three subsequent heat waves or one summer heat wave: (1) absence of a response (tolerance, 50% of species), (2) negative accumulative effects by three subsequent heat waves (tellinid bivalve), (3) buffering by proceeding heat waves due to acclimation and/or shifts in phenology (spionid polychaete) and (4) an accumulative positive effect by subsequent heat waves (amphipod). The differential responses to single or sequential heat waves at the species level entailed shifts at the community level. Community-level differences between single and triple heat waves were more pronounced than those between regimes with vs. without heat waves. Detritivory was reduced by the single heat wave while suspension feeding was less common in the triple heat wave regime. Critical extreme events occur already today and will occur more frequently in a changing climate, thus, leading to detrimental impacts on coastal marine systems.

Dietary nano-silver: Does support or discourage thermal tolerance and biochemical status in air-breathing fish reared under multiple stressors?

Unexpected fluctuations in weather parameters due to global climate change have been observed in all ecosystems worldwide. The aquatic ecosystem shelters a great diversity of fishes in the upper region of the ecosystem which adversely get affected due to their poikilothermic nature. The present study was designed to elucidate the impact of critical temperature minima (CTMin), lethal temperature minima (LTMin), critical temperature maxima (CTMax), and lethal temperature maxima (LTMax) on Channa striatus. Biologically synthesized silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) were evaluated for their potential to enhance thermal tolerance and improve the activities of biochemical enzymes of C. striatus reared under lead (Pb) and high temperature (34 °C) for 50 days. Three iso-caloric and iso-nitrogenous diets which included a basal diet and two supplemented diets with Ag-NPs @ 0.5 mg/kg, and 1 mg/kg were used in the study. Results suggested that CTMin and LTMin were significantly (p < 0.01) reduced and CTMax and LTMax were enhanced in the group fed with 0.5 mg/kg Ag-NPs supplemented feed. Pre-exposure to high temperature led to enhanced CTMax and LTMax in C. striatus. The biochemical enzymes involved in protein metabolism, carbohydrate metabolism, acetylcholine esterase and antioxidant activities were found to be normal in fish fed with 0.5 mg/kg Ag-NPs supplemented diet. Bioaccumulation of silver and Pb was determined in different fish tissues and experimental water. Overall, the incorporation of Ag-NPs at 0.5 mg/kg in diet can confer protection to fish against Pb and thermal stress and enhance thermal tolerance of C. striatus.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.

Ligament, hinge, and shell cross-sections of the Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima): Promising marine environmental archives in NE North America

The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) is a commercially important species in North American waters, undergoing biological and ecological shifts. These are attributed, in part, to environmental modifications in its habitat and driven by climate change. Investigation of shell growth patterns, trace elements, and isotopic compositions require an examination of growth lines and increments preserved in biogenic carbonates. However, growth pattern analysis of S. solidissima is challenging due to multiple disturbance lines caused by environmental stress, erosion in umbonal shell regions, and constraints related to sample size and preparation techniques. The present study proposes an alternative method for describing chronology. First, we analyzed growth patterns using growth lines within the shell and hinge. To validate the assumption of annual periodicity of growth line formation, we analyzed the oxygen isotope composition of the outer shell layer of two specimens (46°54'20"N; 56°18'58"W). Maximum δ¹⁸O_shell values occurred at the exact same location as internal growth lines in both specimens, confirming that they are formed annually and that growth ceases during winter. Next, we used growth increment width data to build a standardized growth index (SGI) time-series (25-year chronology) for each of the three parts of the shell. Highly significant correlations were found between the three SGI chronologies (p < 0.001; 0.55 < τ < 0.68) of all specimens. Thus, ligament growth lines provide a new method of determining ontogenetic age and growth rate in S. solidissima. In a biogeographic approach, the shell growth performance of S. solidissima in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon was compared to those in other populations along its distribution range in order to place this population in a temporal and regional context.

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (T_b), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential T_b in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of T_b showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change.

Repeated freezing induces a trade-off between cryoprotection and egg production in the goldenrod gall fly, Eurosta solidaginis

Internal ice formation leads to wholesale changes in ionic, osmotic and pH homeostasis, energy metabolism, and mechanical damage, across a small range of temperatures, and is thus an abiotic stressor that acts at a distinct, physiologically-relevant, threshold. Insects that experience repeated freeze-thaw cycles over winter will cross this stressor threshold many times over their lifespan. Here we examine the effect of repeatedly crossing the freezing threshold on short-term physiological parameters (metabolic reserves and cryoprotectant concentration) as well as long-term fitness-related performance (survival and egg production) in the freeze-tolerant goldenrod gall fly Eurosta solidaginis. We exposed overwintering prepupae to a series of low temperatures (-10, -15, or -20 °C) with increasing numbers of freezing events (3, 6, or 10) with differing recovery periods between events (1, 5, or 10 days). Repeated freezing increased sorbitol concentration by about 50% relative to a single freezing episode, and prompted prepupae to modify long chain triacylglycerols to acetylated triacylglycerols. Long-term, repeated freezing did not significantly reduce survival, but did reduce egg production by 9.8% relative to a single freezing event. Exposure temperature did not affect any of these measures, suggesting that threshold crossing events may be more important to fitness than the intensity of stress in E. solidaginis overwintering.

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.

Nutrients influence the thermal ecophysiology of an intertidal macroalga: multiple stressors or multiple drivers?

Urbanization of coastlines is leading to increased introduction of nutrients from the terrestrial environment to nearshore habitats. While such nutrient influxes can be detrimental to coastal marine organisms due to increased eutrophication and subsequent reduced oxygen, they could also have positive effects (i.e., increased food availability) on species that are nitrogen-limited such as macroalgae. Nutrient enrichment in this environment thus has the potential to counteract some of the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, at least for some species. Characterizing the physiological response of organisms to simultaneous changes in multiple drivers such as these is an important first step in predicting how global climate change may lead to ecological responses at more local levels. We evaluated how nutrient enrichment (i.e., nitrogen availability) affected the growth of Fucus vesiculosus, a foundational macroalgal species in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal zone, and found that nutrient-enriched algal blades showed a significant increase in tissue growth compared to individuals grown under ambient conditions. We further quantified net photosynthesis by ambient and nutrient-enriched tissues at saturating irradiance over a range of temperature conditions (6-30°C). Respiration was unaffected by nutrient treatment; however, there was a significant increase in photosynthetic oxygen production for nutrient-enriched tissue compared to ambient, but only at elevated (≥18°C) temperatures. This study contributes to a growing body of literature showing the complexity of responses to changes in multiple drivers, and highlights the importance of studying the impacts of global climate change within the context of more local environmental conditions.

Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors

At a proximal level, the physiological impacts of global climate change on ectothermic organisms are manifest as changes in body temperatures. Especially for plants and animals exposed to direct solar radiation, body temperatures can be substantially different from air temperatures. We deployed biomimetic sensors that approximate the thermal characteristics of intertidal mussels at 71 sites worldwide, from 1998-present. Loggers recorded temperatures at 10–30 min intervals nearly continuously at multiple intertidal elevations. Comparisons against direct measurements of mussel tissue temperature indicated errors of ~2.0–2.5 °C, during daily fluctuations that often exceeded 15°–20 °C. Geographic patterns in thermal stress based on biomimetic logger measurements were generally far more complex than anticipated based only on ‘habitat-level’ measurements of air or sea surface temperature. This unique data set provides an opportunity to link physiological measurements with spatially- and temporally-explicit field observations of body temperature.

Physiologically grounded metrics of model skill: a case study estimating heat stress in intertidal populations

Models of ecological responses to climate change fundamentally assume that predictor variables, which are often measured at large scales, are to some degree diagnostic of the smaller-scale biological processes that ultimately drive patterns of abundance and distribution. Given that organisms respond physiologically to stressors, such as temperature, in highly non-linear ways, small modelling errors in predictor variables can potentially result in failures to predict mortality or severe stress, especially if an organism exists near its physiological limits. As a result, a central challenge facing ecologists, particularly those attempting to forecast future responses to environmental change, is how to develop metrics of forecast model skill (the ability of a model to predict defined events) that are biologically meaningful and reflective of underlying processes. We quantified the skill of four simple models of body temperature (a primary determinant of physiological stress) of an intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus, using common metrics of model performance, such as root mean square error, as well as forecast verification skill scores developed by the meteorological community. We used a physiologically grounded framework to assess each model's ability to predict optimal, sub-optimal, sub-lethal and lethal physiological responses. Models diverged in their ability to predict different levels of physiological stress when evaluated using skill scores, even though common metrics, such as root mean square error, indicated similar accuracy overall. Results from this study emphasize the importance of grounding assessments of model skill in the context of an organism's physiology and, especially, of considering the implications of false-positive and false-negative errors when forecasting the ecological effects of environmental change.

Equatorial range limits of an intertidal ectotherm are more linked to water than air temperature

As climate change is expected to impose increasing thermal stress on intertidal organisms, understanding the mechanisms by which body temperatures translate into major biogeographic patterns is of paramount importance. We exposed individuals of the limpet Patella vulgata Linnaeus, 1758, to realistic experimental treatments aimed at disentangling the contribution of water and air temperature for the buildup of thermal stress. Treatments were designed based on temperature data collected at the microhabitat level, from 15 shores along the Atlantic European coast spanning nearly 20° of latitude. Cardiac activity data indicated that thermal stress levels in P. vulgata are directly linked to elevated water temperature, while high air temperature is only stressful if water temperature is also high. In addition, the analysis of the link between population densities and thermal regimes at the studied locations suggests that the occurrence of elevated water temperature may represent a threshold P. vulgata is unable to tolerate. By combining projected temperatures with the temperature threshold identified, we show that climate change will likely result in the westward expansion of the historical distribution gap in the Bay of Biscay (southwest France), and northward contraction of the southern range limit in south Portugal. These findings suggest that even a minor relaxing of the upwelling off northwest Iberia could lead to a dramatic increase in thermal stress, with major consequences for the structure and functioning of the intertidal communities along Iberian rocky shores.

Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process

Seafloor biodiversity is a key mediator of ecosystem functioning, but its role is often excluded from global budgets or simplified to black boxes in models. New techniques allow quantification of the behavior of animals living below the sediment surface and assessment of the ecosystem consequences of complex interactions, yielding a better understanding of the role of seafloor animals in affecting key processes like primary productivity. Combining predictions based on natural history, behavior of key benthic species and environmental context allow assessment of differences in functioning and process, even when the measured ecosystem property in different systems is similar. Data from three sedimentary systems in New Zealand illustrate this. Analysis of the behaviors of the infaunal ecosystem engineers in each system revealed three very different mechanisms driving ecosystem function: density and excretion, sediment turnover and surface rugosity, and hydraulic activities and porewater bioadvection. Integrative metrics of ecosystem function in some cases differentiate among the systems (gross primary production) and in others do not (photosynthetic efficiency). Analyses based on behaviors and activities revealed important ecosystem functional differences and can dramatically improve our ability to model the impact of stressors on ecosystem and global processes.

Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits

This study examines the importance of thermal refugia along the majority of the geographical range of a key intertidal species (Patella vulgata Linnaeus, 1758) on the Atlantic coast of Europe. We asked whether differences between sun-exposed and shaded microhabitats were responsible for differences in physiological stress and ecological performance and examined the availability of refugia near equatorial range limits. Thermal differences between sun-exposed and shaded microhabitats are consistently associated with differences in physiological performance, and the frequency of occurrence of high temperatures is most probably limiting the maximum population densities supported at any given place. Topographical complexity provides thermal refugia throughout most of the distribution range, although towards the equatorial edges the magnitude of the amelioration provided by shaded microhabitats is largely reduced. Importantly, the limiting effects of temperature, rather than being related to latitude, seem to be tightly associated with microsite variability, which therefore is likely to have profound effects on the way local populations (and consequently species) respond to climatic changes.

Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails

Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions, and behavioral responses may alter predictions of studies that ignore these biological details.

Understanding complex biogeographic responses to climate change

Predicting the extent and direction of species' range shifts is a major priority for scientists and resource managers. Seminal studies have fostered the notion that biological systems responding to climate change-impacted variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) should exhibit poleward range shifts but shifts contrary to that expectation have been frequently reported. Understanding whether those shifts are indeed contrary to climate change predictions involves understanding the most basic mechanisms determining the distribution of species. We assessed the patterns of ecologically relevant temperature metrics (e.g., daily range, min, max) along the European Atlantic coast. Temperature metrics have contrasting geographical patterns and latitude or the grand mean are poor predictors for many of them. Our data suggest that unless the appropriate metrics are analysed, the impact of climate change in even a single metric of a single stressor may lead to range shifts in directions that would otherwise be classified as "contrary to prediction".

Some like it hot: Thermal tolerance and oxygen supply capacity in two eurythermal crustaceans

Thermal sensitivity of the cardiorespiratory oxygen supply capacity has been proposed as the cardinal link underlying the upper boundary of the temperature niche in aquatic ectotherms. Here we examined the evidence for this link in two eurythermal decapods, the Giant tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) and the European crayfish (Astacus astacus). We found that both species have a temperature resistant cardiorespiratory system, capable of maintaining oxygen delivery up to their upper critical temperature (Tcrit). In neither species was Tcrit reduced in hypoxia (60% air saturation) and both species showed an exponential increase in heart and gill ventilation rates up to their Tcrit. Further, failure of action potential conduction in preparations of A. astacus motor neurons coincided with Tcrit, indicating that compromised nervous function may provide the underlying determinant for Tcrit rather than oxygen delivery. At high temperatures, absolute aerobic scope was maintained in P. monodon, but reduced in A. astacus. However, A. astacus also displayed reduced exercise intensity indicating that impaired muscle performance with resulting reduced tissue oxygen demand may explain the reduced scope rather than insufficient oxygen supply capacity. This interpretation agrees with early literature on aquatic ectotherms, correlating loss of nervous function with impaired locomotion as temperatures approach Tcrit.

Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation

Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and conservation practitioners would work collaboratively to build models, interpret results and consider conservation management options, and articulating this need here may help to stimulate collaboration.

Elevational clines in the temperature dependence of insect performance and implications for ecological responses to climate change

To what extent is insect hopping and feeding performance, which constrains the ability to obtain and assimilate resources, thermally adapted along an elevation gradient? Does temperature dependence vary between populations and species and can differences account for individualistic responses to past climate change? We investigate these questions for three species of grasshoppers along a Rocky Mountain elevation gradient. All species and populations exhibit warm adaptation for consumption and digestion, with only modest inter- and intra-specific differences. Species differ substantially in the temperature of peak hopping performance. Low-elevation populations of the warm-adapted species exhibit the highest performance at high temperatures and the lowest performance at low temperatures. Developmental plasticity influences the temperature dependence of performance; grasshoppers reared at higher temperatures perform better at higher temperatures and possess broader thermal tolerance. We fitted thermal performance curves to examine whether performance shifts can account for changes in abundance between initial surveys in 1958-1960 and recent surveys since 2006. All species and populations are able to achieve greater feeding rates now. Estimated shifts in hopping performance vary between species and along the elevation gradient. The cool-adapted species has experienced declines in hopping performance, particularly at the lower elevation sites, while the warm-adapted species has experienced increases in performance concentrated at higher elevations. These estimated performance shifts broadly concur with observed abundance shifts. Performance metrics may have a greater potential to elucidate differential responses to climate change between populations and species than coarser and oft-used proxies, such as thermal tolerance. Assessing performance directly when temperature dependence varies between processes such as the acquisition and assimilation of energy may be essential to understanding population- and species-level impacts.