Nonconsumptive effects of a range‐expanding predator on juvenile lobster (Homarus americanus) population dynamics

A global synthesis of predation on bivalves

Predation is a dominant structuring force in ecological communities. In aquatic environments, predation on bivalves has long been an important focal interaction for ecological study because bivalves have central roles as ecosystem engineers, basal components of food webs, and commercial commodities. Studies of bivalves are common, not only because of bivalves' central roles, but also due to the relative ease of studying predatory effects on this taxonomic group. To understand patterns in the interactions of bivalves and their predators we synthesised data from 52 years of peer-reviewed studies on bivalve predation. Using a systematic search, we compiled 1334 studies from 75 countries, comprising 61 bivalve families (N = 2259), dominated by Mytilidae (29% of bivalves), Veneridae (14%), Ostreidae (8%), Unionidae (7%), and Dreissenidae and Tellinidae (6% each). A total of 2036 predators were studied, with crustaceans the most studied predator group (34% of predators), followed by fishes (24%), molluscs (17%), echinoderms (10%) and birds (6%). The majority of studies (86%) were conducted in marine systems, in part driven by the high commercial value of marine bivalves. Studies in freshwater ecosystems were dominated by non-native bivalves and non-native predator species, which probably reflects the important role of biological invasions affecting freshwater biodiversity. In fact, while 81% of the studied marine bivalve species were native, only 50% of the freshwater species were native to the system. In terms of approach, most studies used predation trials, visual analysis of digested contents and exclusion experiments to assess the effects of predation. These studies reflect that many factors influence bivalve predation depending on the species studied, including (i) species traits (e.g. behaviour, morphology, defence mechanisms), (ii) other biotic interactions (e.g. presence of competitors, parasites or diseases), and (iii) environmental context (e.g. temperature, current velocity, beach exposure, habitat complexity). There is a lack of research on the effects of bivalve predation at the population and community and ecosystem levels (only 7% and 0.5% of studies respectively examined impacts at these levels). At the population level, the available studies demonstrate that predation can decrease bivalve density through consumption or the reduction of recruitment. At the community and ecosystem level, predation can trigger effects that cascade through trophic levels or effects that alter the ecological functions bivalves perform. Given the conservation and commercial importance of many bivalve species, studies of predation should be pursued in the context of global change, particularly climate change, acidification and biological invasions.

The importance of oxygen for explaining rapid shifts in a marine fish

Large-scale shifts in marine species biogeography have been a notable impact of climate change. An effective explanation of what drives these species shifts, as well as accurate predictions of where they might move, is crucial to effectively managing these natural resources and conserving biodiversity. While temperature has been implicated as a major driver of these shifts, physiological processes suggest that oxygen, prey, and other factors should also play important roles. We expanded upon previous temperature-based distribution models by testing whether oxygen, food web productivity, salinity, and scope for metabolic activity (the Metabolic Index) better explained the changing biogeography of Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) in the Northeast US. This species has been expanding further north over the past 15 years. We found that oxygen improved model performance beyond a simple consideration of temperature (ΔAIC = 799, ΔTSS = 0.015), with additional contributions from prey and salinity. However, the Metabolic Index did not substantially increase model performance relative to temperature and oxygen (ΔAIC = 0.63, ΔTSS = 0.0002). Marine species are sensitive to oxygen, and we encourage researchers to use ocean biogeochemical hindcast and forecast products to better understand marine biogeographic changes.

A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world populations. Acknowledging that stressor effects start at the individual level, and that it is the sum of these individual-level effects that drives populations to collapse, shifts the focus of predictive ecology away from using predominantly abundance data. Doing so opens new opportunities to develop predictive frameworks that utilize increasingly available multi-dimensional data, which have previously been overlooked for ecological forecasting. Here, we propose that stressed populations will exhibit a predictable sequence of observable changes through time: changes in individuals' behaviour will occur as the first sign of increasing stress, followed by changes in fitness-related morphological traits, shifts in the dynamics (for example, birth rates) of populations and finally abundance declines. We discuss how monitoring the sequential appearance of these signals may allow us to discern whether a population is increasingly at risk of collapse, or is adapting in the face of environmental change, providing a conceptual framework to develop new forecasting methods that combine multi-dimensional (for example, behaviour, morphology, life history and abundance) data.

Range edges of North American marine species are tracking temperature over decades

Understanding the dynamics of species range edges in the modern era is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range edges are where colonization and extirpation processes unfold, and so these dynamics are also important to understand for effective natural resource management and conservation. However, few studies to date have analyzed time series of range edge positions in the context of climate change, in part because range edges are difficult to detect. We first quantified positions for 165 range edges of marine fishes and invertebrates from three U.S. continental shelf regions using up to five decades of survey data and a spatiotemporal model to account for sampling and measurement variability. We then analyzed whether those range edges maintained their edge thermal niche-the temperatures found at the range edge position-over time. A large majority of range edges (88%) maintained either summer or winter temperature extremes at the range edge over the study period, and most maintained both (76%), although not all of those range edges shifted in space. However, we also found numerous range edges-particularly poleward edges and edges in the region that experienced the most warming-that did not shift at all, shifted further than predicted by temperature alone, or shifted opposite the direction expected, underscoring the multiplicity of factors that drive changes in range edge positions. This study suggests that range edges of temperate marine species have largely maintained the same edge thermal niche during periods of rapid change and provides a blueprint for testing whether and to what degree species range edges track temperature in general.

Overwintering survivorship and growth of young-of-the-year black sea bass Centropristis striata

Overwintering conditions have long been known to affect fish survival and year-class strength as well as determine the poleward range limit of many temperate fishes. Despite this known importance, mechanisms controlling overwintering mortality are poorly understood and the tolerance of marine fishes to the combined effects of winter temperature, salinity, and size is rarely quantified. In recent years, higher abundances of the temperate Serranid, black sea bass Centropristis striata, have been observed at latitudes further north than their traditional range suggesting that warming water temperatures, particularly during winter, may be facilitating the establishment of a population at more northern latitudes. To examine overwintering survival of C. striata, the combined effects of temperature, salinity and body mass were quantified in laboratory experiments. We identified 6°C as the lower incipient lethal temperature for C. striata, below which fish cease feeding, lose weight rapidly and die within 32 days. A short cold exposure experiment indicated that temperatures below 5°C resulted in mortality events that continued even as the temperature increased slowly to 10°C, indicating that even short cold snaps can impact survival and recruitment in this species. Importantly, fish in lower salinity lived significantly longer than fish at higher salinity at both 3°C and 5°C, suggesting that osmoregulatory stress plays a role in overwintering mortality in this species. Size was not a critical factor in determining overwintering survival of young-of-the-year (YOY) C. striata. Overwintering survival of YOY C. striata can be effectively predicted as a function of temperature and salinity and their interaction with an accelerated failure model to project future range limits. Identifying temperature thresholds may be a tractable way to incorporate environmental factors into population models and stock assessment models in fishes.