Reframing tropical savannization: linking changes in canopy structure to energy balance alterations that impact climate

Analysis of changes in temperature and precipitation in South American countries and ecoregions: Comparison between reference conditions and three representative concentration pathways for 2050

Climate change is a global concern, and its impact on environmental variables such as temperature and annual precipitation is unknown spatially in the desert, andes, and rainforest ecoregions of Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. In this study, we conducted a general review of climate drivers for South America (SA) and explored climate data using the GCM compareR package (General Circulation Models) and average ensembles for temperature and precipitation. Our results showed that all GCMs demonstrated increases in the annual mean temperature (BIO1) and in the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) for Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for 2050 in three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Also, most of the GCMs showed increases in the annual precipitation (BIO12) and the precipitation in the driest quarter (BIO17). We conducted non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis Test) to assess if the medians of temperature and precipitation in the three ecoregions are equal for both the baseline and the climate change scenarios. We rejected the null hypothesis that the medians are equal for both temperatures and precipitation in the baseline vs. 2050 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). A spatial analysis was conducted to visualize the variations in temperature and precipitation between the RCPs versus the baseline, and the spatial variation at the country or ecoregion level can be observed. The annual mean temperature (°C) or annual precipitation (mm) divided by its standard deviation for each ecoregion (M metric) was analyzed to see how much the average temperature or the annual precipitation is relatively large compared to the variability or dispersion of temperatures or precipitation respectively; the average temperature and the annual precipitation for the baseline and the three RCPs are relatively large and associated with the variability or dispersion of their temperatures in the Napo moist forest compared to the other ecoregions. Our study provides important insights into the potential impacts of climate change on these ecosystems. Prospects in the Napo moist forest ecoregion, where significant changes in temperature and humidity have already occurred, and new species have invaded or evolved in the western Amazon rainforest, are particularly highlighted and reflected in terms of risk mitigation, ecosystem restoration, surveillance, and monitoring.

The other side of tropical forest drought: do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large-scale hydrological refugia from drought?

Tropical forest function is of global significance to climate change responses, and critically determined by water availability patterns. Groundwater is tightly related to soil water through the water table depth (WT), but historically neglected in ecological studies. Shallow WT forests (WT < 5 m) are underrepresented in forest research networks and absent in eddy flux measurements, although they represent c. 50% of the Amazon and are expected to respond differently to global-change-related droughts. We review WT patterns and consequences for plants, emerging results, and advance a conceptual model integrating environment and trait distributions to predict climate change effects. Shallow WT forests have a distinct species composition, with more resource-acquisitive and hydrologically vulnerable trees, shorter canopies and lower biomass than deep WT forests. During 'normal' climatic years, shallow WT forests have higher mortality and lower productivity than deep WT forests, but during moderate droughts mortality is buffered and productivity increases. However, during severe drought, shallow WT forests may be more sensitive due to shallow roots and drought-intolerant traits. Our evidence supports the hypothesis of neglected shallow WT forests being resilient to moderate drought, challenging the prevailing view of widespread negative effects of climate change on Amazonian forests that ignores WT gradients, but predicts they could collapse under very strong droughts.

Thermal sensitivity across forest vertical profiles: patterns, mechanisms, and ecological implications

Rising temperatures are influencing forests on many scales, with potentially strong variation vertically across forest strata. Using published research and new analyses, we evaluate how microclimate and leaf temperatures, traits, and gas exchange vary vertically in forests, shaping tree, and ecosystem ecology. In closed-canopy forests, upper canopy leaves are exposed to the highest solar radiation and evaporative demand, which can elevate leaf temperature (T_leaf ), particularly when transpirational cooling is curtailed by limited stomatal conductance. However, foliar traits also vary across height or light gradients, partially mitigating and protecting against the elevation of upper canopy T_leaf . Leaf metabolism generally increases with height across the vertical gradient, yet differences in thermal sensitivity across the gradient appear modest. Scaling from leaves to trees, canopy trees have higher absolute metabolic capacity and growth, yet are more vulnerable to drought and damaging T_leaf than their smaller counterparts, particularly under climate change. By contrast, understory trees experience fewer extreme high T_leaf 's but have fewer cooling mechanisms and thus may be strongly impacted by warming under some conditions, particularly when exposed to a harsher microenvironment through canopy disturbance. As the climate changes, integrating the patterns and mechanisms reviewed here into models will be critical to forecasting forest-climate feedback.

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

South America is a vast continent characterized by diverse atmospheric phenomena and climate regimes. In this context, seasonal climate predictions are helpful for decision-making in several relevant socioeconomic segments in this territory, such as agriculture and energy generation. Thus, the present work evaluates the performance of ECMWF-SEAS5 in simulating the South American precipitation regimes by applying a non-hierarchical clustering technique. In addition, the study describes the main atmospheric systems that cause precipitation in each cluster and updates a previous work performed in South America in 2010. As a result, ECMWF-SEAS5 simulates (with good correspondence) the eight climate regimes identified in the analysis of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Moreover, ECMWF-SEAS5 has a satisfactory ability in representing the rainfall regime in low and medium climate predictability regions, such as central and southern South America. ECMWF-SEAS5 has good performance in the climate characterization of South America and it gives us confidence in using its seasonal climate predictions throughout the continent.

Changes in land use enhance the sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to fire-climate extremes

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Vegetation-type conversion of evergreen chaparral shrublands to savannahs dominated by exotic annual herbs: causes and consequences for ecosystem function

Woody, evergreen shrublands are the archetypal community in mediterranean-type ecosystems, and these communities are profoundly changed when they undergo vegetation-type conversion (VTC) to become annual, herb-dominated communities. Recently, VTC has occurred throughout southern California chaparral shrublands, likely with changes in important ecosystem functions. The mechanisms that lead to VTC and subsequent changes to ecosystem processes are important to understand as they have regional and global implications for ecosystem services, climate change, land management, and policy. The main drivers of VTC are altered fire regimes, aridity, and anthropogenic disturbance. Some changes to ecosystem function are certain to occur with VTC, but their magnitudes are unclear, whereas other changes are unpredictable. I present two hypotheses: (1) VTC leads to warming that creates a positive feedback promoting additional VTC, and (2) altered nitrogen dynamics create negative feedbacks and promote an alternative stable state in which communities are dominated by herbs. The patterns described for California are mostly relevant to the other mediterranean-type shrublands of the globe, which are biodiversity hotspots and threatened by VTC. This review examines the extent and causes of VTC, ecosystem effects, and future research priorities.

Long-term standardized ecological research in an Amazonian savanna: a laboratory under threat

A few decades ago, researchers from the National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA) started a pilot study to integrate the ecological studies of several organisms using monitoring plots, which then became the embryo for the creation of the RAPELD (Rapid Assessments and Long-term Ecological Research) system used by the Program for Biodiversity Research (PPBio) and the Long-term ecological research site POPA (PELD Western Pará). They installed and maintained permanent plots in an Amazonian-savanna patch near to the village of Alter do Chão. Amazonian savannas constitute a threatened ecosystem comprising only 6% of the Amazon biome. Most of the studies focused on three main long-term ecological research questions, but the site was also of importance for other inquiries and for the training of young researchers, contributing 71 articles so far and 32 masters and doctorate theses. Here, we present the experimental design and results of standardized studies in the savannas and forest fragments near Alter do Chão that have been carried out over the years. We discuss the future prospects and local threats to the area (e.g. soy crops and land speculation), and highlight the need to incorporate Alter do Chão villagers in land-use planning in the region.

Drought-driven wildfire impacts on structure and dynamics in a wet Central Amazonian forest

While the climate and human-induced forest degradation is increasing in the Amazon, fire impacts on forest dynamics remain understudied in the wetter regions of the basin, which are susceptible to large wildfires only during extreme droughts. To address this gap, we installed burned and unburned plots immediately after a wildfire in the northern Purus-Madeira (Central Amazon) during the 2015 El-Niño. We measured all individuals with diameter of 10 cm or more at breast height and conducted recensuses to track the demographic drivers of biomass change over 3 years. We also assessed how stem-level growth and mortality were influenced by fire intensity (proxied by char height) and tree morphological traits (size and wood density). Overall, the burned forest lost 27.3% of stem density and 12.8% of biomass, concentrated in small and medium trees. Mortality drove these losses in the first 2 years and recruitment decreased in the third year. The fire increased growth in lower wood density and larger sized trees, while char height had transitory strong effects increasing tree mortality. Our findings suggest that fire impacts are weaker in the wetter Amazon. Here, trees of greater sizes and higher wood densities may confer a margin of fire resistance; however, this may not extend to higher intensity fires arising from climate change.