1
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Evans MEK, Dey SMN, Heilman KA, Tipton JR, DeRose RJ, Klesse S, Schultz EL, Shaw JD. Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2315700121. [PMID: 38830099 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315700121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margaret E K Evans
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | - Sharmila M N Dey
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Kelly A Heilman
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | - John R Tipton
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
| | - R Justin DeRose
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322
| | - Stefan Klesse
- Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Emily L Schultz
- Department of Biology, Colorado Mountain College, Breckenridge, CO 80424
| | - John D Shaw
- Riverdale Forestry Sciences Lab, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Riverdale, UT 84405
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2
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Cross TB, Tack JD, Naugle DE, Schwartz MK, Doherty KE, Oyler-McCance SJ, Pritchert RD, Fedy BC. The ties that bind the sagebrush biome: integrating genetic connectivity into range-wide conservation of greater sage-grouse. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2023; 10:220437. [PMID: 36844808 PMCID: PMC9943888 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity-twice the amount of connectivity as random-and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Todd B. Cross
- School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jason D. Tack
- Habitat and Population Evaluation Team, US Fish and Wildlife Service, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - David E. Naugle
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Michael K. Schwartz
- USDA Forest Service, National Genomics Center for Wildlife and Fish Conservation, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT, USA
| | | | | | - Ronald D. Pritchert
- Habitat and Population Evaluation Team, US Fish and Wildlife Service, 3425 Miriam Avenue, Bismarck, ND, USA
| | - Bradley C. Fedy
- School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
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3
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Scharf HR, Raiho AM, Pugh S, Roland CA, Swanson DK, Stehn SE, Hooten MB. Multivariate Bayesian clustering using covariate-informed components with application to boreal vegetation sensitivity. Biometrics 2022; 78:1427-1440. [PMID: 34143436 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2020] [Revised: 05/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is impacting both the distribution and abundance of vegetation, especially in far northern latitudes. The effects of climate change are different for every plant assemblage and vary heterogeneously in both space and time. Small changes in climate could result in large vegetation responses in sensitive assemblages but weak responses in robust assemblages. But, patterns and mechanisms of sensitivity and robustness are not yet well understood, largely due to a lack of long-term measurements of climate and vegetation. Fortunately, observations are sometimes available across a broad spatial extent. We develop a novel statistical model for a multivariate response based on unknown cluster-specific effects and covariances, where cluster labels correspond to sensitivity and robustness. Our approach utilizes a prototype model for cluster membership that offers flexibility while enforcing smoothness in cluster probabilities across sites with similar characteristics. We demonstrate our approach with an application to vegetation abundance in Alaska, USA, in which we leverage the broad spatial extent of the study area as a proxy for unrecorded historical observations. In the context of the application, our approach yields interpretable site-level cluster labels associated with assemblage-level sensitivity and robustness without requiring strong a priori assumptions about the drivers of climate sensitivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henry R Scharf
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, California
| | - Ann M Raiho
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Sierra Pugh
- Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Carl A Roland
- Denali National Park and Preserve, National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska
| | | | - Sarah E Stehn
- Denali National Park and Preserve, National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska
| | - Mevin B Hooten
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.,Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.,U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Fort Collins, Colorado
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4
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Felton AJ, Shriver RK, Stemkovski M, Bradford JB, Suding KN, Adler PB. Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:2688-2698. [PMID: 36269682 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases. Uncertainty related to climate disequilibrium is larger than uncertainties from variation among climate models or emissions pathways. A better understanding of processes that regulate climate disequilibria is essential for improving long-term projections of ecological responses and informing management to maintain ecosystem functioning at historical baselines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Felton
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | - Robert K Shriver
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA
| | | | - John B Bradford
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Katharine N Suding
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and Institute of Alpine and Arctic Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Peter B Adler
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
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5
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Holdrege MC, Kulmatiski A, Beard KH, Palmquist KA. Precipitation Intensification Increases Shrub Dominance in Arid, Not Mesic, Ecosystems. Ecosystems 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-022-00778-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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6
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Beers AT, Frey SN. Greater sage‐grouse habitat selection varies across the marginal habitat of its lagging range margin. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Aidan T. Beers
- Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Logan Utah USA
| | - Shandra N. Frey
- Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Logan Utah USA
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7
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Simler-Williamson AB, Germino MJ. Statistical considerations of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3472. [PMID: 35710763 PMCID: PMC9203498 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31102-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment involving post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across semiarid areas of the western USA over two decades, we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration using remotely sensed data. From following more than 1,500 wildfires, we find treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate unmeasured drivers of treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering sources of bias, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effects varied with climate, indicating prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly unsuccessful and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and the development of restoration theory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison B Simler-Williamson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Boise State University, 1910 W University Dr, Boise, ID, 83725, USA.
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 230 N. Collins Rd., Boise, ID, 83702, USA.
| | - Matthew J Germino
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 230 N. Collins Rd., Boise, ID, 83702, USA
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8
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Buerdsell SL, Milligan BG, Lehnhoff EA. Extreme drought induces rapid declines in co‐occurring native
Bouteloua eriopoda
and invasive
Eragrostis lehmanniana. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Brook G. Milligan
- Department of Biology New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico USA
| | - Erik A. Lehnhoff
- Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology, and Weed Science New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico USA
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9
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Monroe AP, Nauman TW, Aldridge CL, O’Donnell MS, Duniway MC, Cade BS, Manier DJ, Anderson PJ. Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e8508. [PMID: 35222945 PMCID: PMC8855019 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2021] [Revised: 11/22/2021] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Adrian P. Monroe
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Travis W. Nauman
- U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center Moab Utah USA
| | - Cameron L. Aldridge
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Michael S. O’Donnell
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Michael C. Duniway
- U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center Moab Utah USA
| | - Brian S. Cade
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Daniel J. Manier
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Patrick J. Anderson
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
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10
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Jung CG, Xu X, Shi Z, Niu S, Xia J, Sherry R, Jiang L, Zhu K, Hou E, Luo Y. Warmer and wetter climate promotes net primary production in
C
4
grassland with additional enhancement by hay harvesting. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Chang Gyo Jung
- Department of Biological Sciences Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
- Department of Biology University of Central Florida Orlando Florida USA
| | - Xia Xu
- College of Biology and the Environment Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing China
| | - Zheng Shi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California Irvine Irvine California USA
| | - Shuli Niu
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Department of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Jianyang Xia
- Tiantong National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University Shanghai China
- Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting East China Normal University Shanghai China
| | - Rebecca Sherry
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology University of Oklahoma Norman Oklahoma USA
| | - Lifen Jiang
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Kai Zhu
- Department of Environmental Studies University of California Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Enqing Hou
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Yiqi Luo
- Department of Biological Sciences Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
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11
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Palmquist KA, Schlaepfer DR, Renne RR, Torbit SC, Doherty KE, Remington TE, Watson G, Bradford JB, Lauenroth WK. Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:5169-5185. [PMID: 34189797 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Plant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of -20% to +27%), declines in perennial C3 grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C4 grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C3 grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture-limited versus temperature-limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyle A Palmquist
- Department of Biological Sciences, Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA
| | - Daniel R Schlaepfer
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- Center for Adaptable Western Landscapes, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rachel R Renne
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Stephen C Torbit
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Mountain-Prairie Region, Lakewood, CO, USA
| | - Kevin E Doherty
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Mountain-Prairie Region, Lakewood, CO, USA
| | | | - Greg Watson
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Mountain-Prairie Region, Lakewood, CO, USA
| | - John B Bradford
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- Center for Adaptable Western Landscapes, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - William K Lauenroth
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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12
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Felton AJ, Shriver RK, Bradford JB, Suding KN, Allred BW, Adler PB. Biotic vs abiotic controls on temporal sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across North American drylands. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 231:2150-2161. [PMID: 34105783 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Dryland net primary productivity (NPP) is sensitive to temporal variation in precipitation (PPT), but the magnitude of this 'temporal sensitivity' varies spatially. Hypotheses for spatial variation in temporal sensitivity have often emphasized abiotic factors, such as moisture limitation, while overlooking biotic factors, such as vegetation structure. We tested these hypotheses using spatiotemporal models fit to remote-sensing data sets to assess how vegetation structure and climate influence temporal sensitivity across five dryland ecoregions of the western USA. Temporal sensitivity was higher in locations and ecoregions dominated by herbaceous vegetation. By contrast, much less spatial variation in temporal sensitivity was explained by mean annual PPT. In fact, ecoregion-specific models showed inconsistent associations of sensitivity and PPT; whereas sensitivity decreased with increasing mean annual PPT in most ecoregions, it increased with mean annual PPT in the most arid ecoregion, the hot deserts. The strong, positive influence of herbaceous vegetation on temporal sensitivity indicates that herbaceous-dominated drylands will be particularly sensitive to future increases in precipitation variability and that dramatic changes in cover type caused by invasions or shrub encroachment will lead to changes in dryland NPP dynamics, perhaps independent of changes in precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Felton
- Department of Wildland Resources and The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, USA
| | - Robert K Shriver
- Department of Wildland Resources and The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, USA
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV, 89557, USA
| | - John B Bradford
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA
| | - Katharine N Suding
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Brady W Allred
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Peter B Adler
- Department of Wildland Resources and The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, USA
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13
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Urza AK, Weisberg PJ, Board D, Chambers JC, Kitchen SG, Roundy BA. Episodic occurrence of favourable weather constrains recovery of a cold desert shrubland after fire. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra K. Urza
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Reno NV USA
- Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology Graduate Program University of Nevada Reno NV USA
| | - Peter J. Weisberg
- Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology Graduate Program University of Nevada Reno NV USA
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno NV USA
| | - David Board
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Reno NV USA
| | | | | | - Bruce A. Roundy
- Department of Plant and Wildlife Sciences Brigham Young University Provo UT USA
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14
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Rigge M, Shi H, Postma K. Projected change in rangeland fractional component cover across the sagebrush biome under climate change through 2085. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Rigge
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
| | - Hua Shi
- AFDS Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
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15
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Applestein C, Caughlin TT, Germino MJ. Weather affects post‐fire recovery of sagebrush‐steppe communities and model transferability among sites. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cara Applestein
- Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 970 South Lusk Street Boise Idaho83706USA
- Department of Biological Sciences Boise State University Boise Idaho USA
| | - T. Trevor Caughlin
- Department of Biological Sciences Boise State University Boise Idaho USA
| | - Matthew J. Germino
- Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 970 South Lusk Street Boise Idaho83706USA
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16
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Shi H, Homer C, Rigge M, Postma K, Xian G. Analyzing vegetation change in a sagebrush ecosystem using long‐term field observations and Landsat imagery in Wyoming. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Hua Shi
- AFDS 47914 252nd Street Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
| | - Collin Homer
- Earth Resources Observation and Science Center U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 47914 252nd Street Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
| | - Matthew Rigge
- AFDS 47914 252nd Street Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
| | - Kory Postma
- KBRwyle 47914 252nd Street Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
| | - George Xian
- Earth Resources Observation and Science Center U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 47914 252nd Street Sioux Falls South Dakota57198USA
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17
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Rosamond KM, Goded S, Soultan A, Kaplan RH, Glass A, Kim DH, Arcilla N. Not Singing in the Rain: Linking Migratory Songbird Declines With Increasing Precipitation and Brood Parasitism Vulnerability. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.536769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Few empirical studies have quantified relationships between changing weather and migratory songbirds, but such studies are vital in a time of rapid climate change. Climate change has critical consequences for avian breeding ecology, geographic ranges, and migration phenology. Changing precipitation and temperature patterns affect habitat, food resources, and other aspects of birds’ life history strategies. Such changes may disproportionately affect species confined to rare or declining ecosystems, such as temperate grasslands, which are among the most altered and endangered ecosystems globally. We examined the influence of changing weather on the dickcissel (Spiza americana), a migratory songbird of conservation concern that is an obligate grassland specialist. Our study area in the North American Great Plains features high historic weather variability, where climate change is now driving higher precipitation and temperatures as well as higher frequencies of extreme weather events including flooding and droughts. Dickcissels share their breeding grounds with brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater), brood parasites that lay their eggs in the nests of other songbirds, reducing dickcissel productivity. We used 9 years of capture-recapture data collected over an 18-year period to test the hypothesis that increasing precipitation on dickcissels’ riparian breeding grounds is associated with abundance declines and increasing vulnerability to cowbird parasitism. Dickcissels declined with increasing June precipitation, whereas cowbirds, by contrast, increased. Dickcissel productivity appeared to be extremely low, with a 3:1 ratio of breeding male to female dickcissels likely undermining reproductive success. Our findings suggest that increasing precipitation predicted by climate change models in this region may drive future declines of dickcissels and other songbirds. Drivers of these declines may include habitat and food resource loss related to flooding and higher frequency precipitation events as well as increased parasitism pressure by cowbirds. Positive correlations of June-July precipitation, temperature, and time since grazing with dickcissel productivity did not mitigate dickcissels’ declining trend in this ecosystem. These findings highlight the importance of empirical research on the effects of increasing precipitation and brood parasitism vulnerability on migratory songbird conservation to inform adaptive management under climate change.
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Iles DT, Lynch H, Ji R, Barbraud C, Delord K, Jenouvrier S. Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3788-3798. [PMID: 32190944 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Revised: 02/17/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- David T Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | | | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
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19
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Requena-Mullor JM, Maguire KC, Shinneman DJ, Caughlin TT. Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models-A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:3844-3858. [PMID: 31180605 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/10/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America. Models including fire attributes and restoration treatments performed better than those including only climate and topographic variables. Number of fires and fire occurrence had the strongest relative effects on big sagebrush occurrence and cover, respectively. The models predicted that the probability of big sagebrush occurrence decreases by 1.2% (95% CI: -6.9%, 0.6%) when one fire occurs and cover decreases by 44.7% (95% CI: -47.9%, -41.3%) if at least one fire occurred over the 36 year period of record. Restoration practices increased the probability of big sagebrush occurrence but had minimal effect on cover. Our results demonstrate the potential value of including disturbance and land management along with climate in models to predict species distributions. As an increasing number of datasets representing land-use history become available, we anticipate that our modeling framework will have broad relevance across a range of biomes and species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kaitlin C Maguire
- Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Boise, Idaho
| | - Douglas J Shinneman
- Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Boise, Idaho
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20
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Lazarus BE, Germino MJ, Richardson BA. Freezing resistance, safety margins, and survival vary among big sagebrush populations across the western United States. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2019; 106:922-934. [PMID: 31294835 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.1320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2018] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE Physiological responses to temperature extremes are considered strong drivers of species' demographic responses to climate variability. Plants are typically classified as either avoiders or tolerators in their freezing-resistance mechanism, but a gradient of physiological-threshold freezing responses may exist among individuals of a species. Moreover, adaptive significance of physiological freezing responses is poorly characterized, particularly under warming conditions that relax selection on cold hardiness. METHODS Freezing responses were measured in winter and again for new foliage in spring for 14 populations of Artemisia tridentata collected throughout its range and planted in a warm common garden. The relationships of the freezing responses to survival were evaluated in the warm garden and in two colder gardens. RESULTS Winter and spring freezing resistance were not correlated and appeared to be under differing selection regimes, as evident in correlations with different population climate of origin variables. All populations resisted considerably lower temperatures in winter than in spring, with populations from more continental climates showing narrower freezing safety margins (difference in temperatures at which ice-nucleation occurs and 50% reduction in chlorophyll fluorescence occurs) in spring. Populations with greater winter freezing resistance had lower survivorship in the warmest garden, while populations with greater spring freezing resistance had lower survivorship in a colder garden. CONCLUSIONS These survivorship patterns relative to physiological thresholds suggest excess freezing resistance may incur a survival cost that likely relates to a trade-off between carbon gain and freezing resistance during critical periods of moisture availability. This cost has implications for seed moved from cooler to warmer environments and for plants growing in warming environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brynne E Lazarus
- U. S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 970 S. Lusk Street, Boise, ID, 83706, USA
| | - Matthew J Germino
- U. S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 970 S. Lusk Street, Boise, ID, 83706, USA
| | - Bryce A Richardson
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1221 S. Main St., Moscow, ID, 83843, USA
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21
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Shriver RK, Andrews CM, Arkle RS, Barnard DM, Duniway MC, Germino MJ, Pilliod DS, Pyke DA, Welty JL, Bradford JB. Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance. Ecol Lett 2019; 22:1357-1366. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.13291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2018] [Revised: 12/22/2018] [Accepted: 05/09/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Robert K. Shriver
- U.S. Geological SurveySouthwest Biological Science Center2255 N Gemini Rd Flagstaff AZ USA
| | - Caitlin M. Andrews
- U.S. Geological SurveySouthwest Biological Science Center2255 N Gemini Rd Flagstaff AZ USA
| | - Robert S. Arkle
- U.S. Geological SurveyForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center970 S Lusk St Boise ID USA
| | - David M. Barnard
- U.S. Geological SurveyForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center970 S Lusk St Boise ID USA
| | - Michael C. Duniway
- U.S. Geological SurveySouthwest Biological Science Center2290 Resource Blvd Moab UT USA
| | - Matthew J. Germino
- U.S. Geological SurveyForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center970 S Lusk St Boise ID USA
| | - David S. Pilliod
- U.S. Geological SurveyForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center970 S Lusk St Boise ID USA
| | - David A. Pyke
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 3200 SW Jefferson Way Corvallis OR USA
| | - Justin L. Welty
- U.S. Geological SurveyForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center970 S Lusk St Boise ID USA
| | - John B. Bradford
- U.S. Geological SurveySouthwest Biological Science Center2255 N Gemini Rd Flagstaff AZ USA
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22
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Rigge M, Shi H, Homer C, Danielson P, Granneman B. Long‐term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin,
USA. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Rigge
- AFDS Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota 57198 USA
| | - Hua Shi
- AFDS Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota 57198 USA
| | - Collin Homer
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota 57198 USA
| | - Patrick Danielson
- KBRwyle Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota 57198 USA
| | - Brian Granneman
- KBRwyle Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls South Dakota 57198 USA
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Saracco JF, Siegel RB, Helton L, Stock SL, DeSante DF. Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:985-996. [PMID: 30506620 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2018] [Accepted: 10/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist-netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi-species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation-productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi-year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi-species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- James F Saracco
- The Institute for Bird Populations, Point Reyes Station, California
| | - Rodney B Siegel
- The Institute for Bird Populations, Point Reyes Station, California
| | - Lauren Helton
- The Institute for Bird Populations, Point Reyes Station, California
| | - Sarah L Stock
- Division of Resources Management and Science, Yosemite National Park, El Portal, California
| | - David F DeSante
- The Institute for Bird Populations, Point Reyes Station, California
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