1
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Van de Walle J, Sun R, Fay R, Patrick SC, Barbraud C, Delord K, Weimerkirch H, Jenouvrier S. The impact of boldness on demographic rates and life-history outcomes in the wandering albatross. J Anim Ecol 2024. [PMID: 38525860 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.14077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024]
Abstract
Differences among individuals within a population are ubiquitous. Those differences are known to affect the entire life cycle with important consequences for all demographic rates and outcomes. One source of among-individual phenotypic variation that has received little attention from a demographic perspective is animal personality, which is defined as consistent and heritable behavioural differences between individuals. While many studies have shown that individual variation in individual personality can generate individual differences in survival and reproductive rates, the impact of personality on all demographic rates and outcomes remains to be assessed empirically. Here, we used a unique, long-term, dataset coupling demography and personality of wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans) in the Crozet Archipelago and a comprehensive analysis based on a suite of approaches (capture-mark-recapture statistical models, Markov chains models and structured matrix population models). We assessed the effect of boldness on annual demographic rates (survival, breeding probability, breeding success), life-history outcomes (life expectancy, lifetime reproductive outcome, occupancy times), and an integrative demographic outcome (population growth rate). We found that boldness had little impact on female demographic rates, but was very likely associated with lower breeding probabilities in males. By integrating the effects of boldness over the entire life cycle, we found that bolder males had slightly lower lifetime reproductive success compared to shyer males. Indeed, bolder males spent a greater proportion of their lifetime as non-breeders, which suggests longer inter-breeding intervals due to higher reproductive allocation. Our results reveal that the link between boldness and demography is more complex than anticipated by the pace-of-life literature and highlight the importance of considering the entire life cycle with a comprehensive approach when assessing the role of personality on individual performance and demography.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joanie Van de Walle
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice-Lamontagne Institute, Mont-Joli, Quebec, Canada
| | - Ruijiao Sun
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Rémi Fay
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Laboratoire de Biometrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR CNRS 5558, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Samantha C Patrick
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-La Rochelle University UMR 7372, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-La Rochelle University UMR 7372, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Henri Weimerkirch
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-La Rochelle University UMR 7372, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
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2
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LaRue M, Iles D, Labrousse S, Fretwell P, Ortega D, Devane E, Horstmann I, Viollat L, Foster-Dyer R, Le Bohec C, Zitterbart D, Houstin A, Richter S, Winterl A, Wienecke B, Salas L, Nixon M, Barbraud C, Kooyman G, Ponganis P, Ainley D, Trathan P, Jenouvrier S. Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population. Proc Biol Sci 2024; 291:20232067. [PMID: 38471550 PMCID: PMC10932703 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle LaRue
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - David Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Sara Labrousse
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
- Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, UMR 7159, 75005, Paris, France
| | | | - David Ortega
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Eileen Devane
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | | | - Lise Viollat
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Rose Foster-Dyer
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Céline Le Bohec
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Strasbourg, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France
- Département de Biologie Polaire, Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco City, Monaco
| | - Daniel Zitterbart
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Aymeric Houstin
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Strasbourg, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France
- Département de Biologie Polaire, Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco City, Monaco
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Sebastian Richter
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Alexander Winterl
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Barbara Wienecke
- Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Australia
| | - Leo Salas
- Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA, USA
| | - Monique Nixon
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – La Rochelle Université, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France
| | | | - Paul Ponganis
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | | | - Philip Trathan
- British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
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3
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Labrousse S, Nerini D, Fraser AD, Salas L, Sumner M, Le Manach F, Jenouvrier S, Iles D, LaRue M. Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadg8340. [PMID: 37756400 PMCID: PMC10530227 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg8340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Labrousse
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et approches numériques (LOCEAN), UMR 7159 Sorbonne-Université, CNRS, MNHN, IRD, IPSL, 75005 Paris, France
| | - David Nerini
- Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, MIO, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Alexander D. Fraser
- Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania
| | | | - Michael Sumner
- Integrated Digital East Antarctica, Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania 7050, Australia
| | | | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Department of Biology, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - David Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Michelle LaRue
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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4
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Sun R, Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H, Delord K, Patrick SC, Caswell H, Jenouvrier S. Causes and consequences of pair‐bond disruption in a sex‐skewed population of a long‐lived monogamous seabird. ECOL MONOGR 2022; 92:e1522. [PMID: 36248260 PMCID: PMC9539511 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ruijiao Sun
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé CNRS‐La Rochelle University UMR7372 Villiers en Bois France
| | - Henri Weimerskirch
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé CNRS‐La Rochelle University UMR7372 Villiers en Bois France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé CNRS‐La Rochelle University UMR7372 Villiers en Bois France
| | - Samantha C. Patrick
- School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool, Nicholson Building Brownlow Street Liverpool UK
| | - Hal Caswell
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam GE Amsterdam The Netherlands
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5
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Visser ME, Lindner M, Gienapp P, Long MC, Jenouvrier S. Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major). Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211337. [PMID: 34814747 PMCID: PMC8611334 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Melanie Lindner
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Phillip Gienapp
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Michael-Otto-Institut im NABU, Research and Education Centre for Avian and Wetland Conservation, Goosstroot 1, 24861 Bergenhusen, Germany
| | - Matthew C Long
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
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6
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Youngflesh C, Li Y, Lynch HJ, Delord K, Barbraud C, Ji R, Jenouvrier S. Lack of synchronized breeding success in a seabird community: extreme events, niche separation, and environmental variability. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.08426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Casey Youngflesh
- Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Univ. of California – Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
| | - Yun Li
- School of Marine Science and Policy, Univ. of Delaware Lewes DE USA
| | - Heather J. Lynch
- Inst. for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook Univ. Stony Brook NY USA
- Dept of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook Univ. Stony Brook NY USA
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/La Rochelle Univ. Villiers en Bois France
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/La Rochelle Univ. Villiers en Bois France
| | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Dept, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst. Woods Hole MA USA
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7
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Jenouvrier S, Che‐Castaldo J, Wolf S, Holland M, Labrousse S, LaRue M, Wienecke B, Fretwell P, Barbraud C, Greenwald N, Stroeve J, Trathan PN. The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:5008-5029. [PMID: 34342929 PMCID: PMC9291047 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15806] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 07/10/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology DepartmentWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods HoleMassachusettsUSA
| | - Judy Che‐Castaldo
- Conservation & Science DepartmentAlexander Center for Applied Population BiologyLincoln Park ZooChicagoIllinoisUSA
| | - Shaye Wolf
- Climate Law InstituteCenter for Biological DiversityOaklandCaliforniaUSA
| | - Marika Holland
- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA
| | | | - Michelle LaRue
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of CanterburyChristchurchNew Zealand
- Department of Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolisMinnesotaUSA
| | | | | | | | - Noah Greenwald
- Endangered Species ProgramCenter for Biological DiversityPortlandOregonUSA
| | - Julienne Stroeve
- Centre for Earth Observation ScienceUniversity of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaCanada
- National Snow and Ice Data CenterUSA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of ColoradoBoulderColoradoUSA
- Earth Sciences DepartmentUniversity College LondonLondonUK
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8
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Iles DT, Lynch H, Ji R, Barbraud C, Delord K, Jenouvrier S. Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:3788-3798. [PMID: 32190944 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Revised: 02/17/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- David T Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | | | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
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9
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Youngflesh C, Jenouvrier S, Hinke JT, DuBois L, St Leger J, Trivelpiece WZ, Trivelpiece SG, Lynch HJ. Rethinking "normal": The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird. J Anim Ecol 2018; 87:682-690. [PMID: 29277890 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2017] [Accepted: 11/20/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for colonial species where breeding synchrony may outweigh each individual's effort to time breeding with optimal environmental conditions. Our study highlights the importance of identifying appropriate null models for studying phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Casey Youngflesh
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.,Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Univ La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Jefferson T Hinke
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Heather J Lynch
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
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10
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Che-Castaldo C, Jenouvrier S, Youngflesh C, Shoemaker KT, Humphries G, McDowall P, Landrum L, Holland MM, Li Y, Ji R, Lynch HJ. Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise. Nat Commun 2017; 8:832. [PMID: 29018199 PMCID: PMC5635117 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2017] [Accepted: 08/03/2017] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982–2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide “year effects” strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes. Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Che-Castaldo
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA.
| | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Mailstop 50, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA.,Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chize, UMR 7372 CNRS/University La Rochelle, 79360, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Casey Youngflesh
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA
| | - Kevin T Shoemaker
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA.,Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia Street, Reno, NV, 89557, USA
| | - Grant Humphries
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA.,Black Bawks Data Science Ltd, 24 Abertarff Place, Fort Augustus, PH32 4DR, UK
| | - Philip McDowall
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA
| | - Laura Landrum
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Marika M Holland
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Yun Li
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.,Biology Department, Mailstop 33, Redfield 2-14, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
| | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Department, Mailstop 33, Redfield 2-14, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
| | - Heather J Lynch
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Stony Brook University, Life Sciences 106, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA.
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Youngflesh C, Jenouvrier S, Li Y, Ji R, Ainley DG, Ballard G, Barbraud C, Delord K, Dugger KM, Emmerson LM, Fraser WR, Hinke JT, Lyver PO, Olmastroni S, Southwell CJ, Trivelpiece SG, Trivelpiece WZ, Lynch HJ. Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch. Ecology 2017; 98:940-951. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2016] [Revised: 11/14/2016] [Accepted: 12/08/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Casey Youngflesh
- Department of Ecology and Evolution Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York 11790 USA
| | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole Massachusetts 02543 USA
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle Villiers en Bois FR‐79360 France
| | - Yun Li
- University of South Florida, College of Marine Science St. Petersburg Florida 33701 USA
| | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole Massachusetts 02543 USA
| | | | - Grant Ballard
- Point Blue Conservation Science Petaluma California 94954 USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle Villiers en Bois FR‐79360 France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle Villiers en Bois FR‐79360 France
| | - Katie M. Dugger
- US Geological Survey Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon 97331 USA
| | - Louise M. Emmerson
- Department of the Environment Australian Antarctic Division Kingston Tasmania 7050 Australia
| | | | - Jefferson T. Hinke
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration La Jolla California 92037 USA
| | | | - Silvia Olmastroni
- Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente Università degli Studi di Siena Siena 53100 Italy
- Museo Nazionale dell'Antartide Sezione di Siena Siena 53100 Italy
| | - Colin J. Southwell
- Department of the Environment Australian Antarctic Division Kingston Tasmania 7050 Australia
| | - Susan G. Trivelpiece
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration La Jolla California 92037 USA
| | - Wayne Z. Trivelpiece
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration La Jolla California 92037 USA
| | - Heather J. Lynch
- Department of Ecology and Evolution Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York 11790 USA
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Jenouvrier S. Impacts of climate change on avian populations. Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:2036-57. [PMID: 23505016 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2012] [Revised: 01/16/2013] [Accepted: 02/11/2013] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
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Abstract
Broad-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change-induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas E Reed
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen, Netherlands.
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Reed TE, Jenouvrier S, Visser ME. Phenological mismatch strongly affects individual fitness but not population demography in a woodland passerine. J Anim Ecol 2012; 82:131-44. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02020.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 185] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2012] [Accepted: 06/28/2012] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas E. Reed
- Department of Animal Ecology; Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW); P.O. Box 50 6700AB Wageningen The Netherlands
| | | | - Marcel E. Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology; Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW); P.O. Box 50 6700AB Wageningen The Netherlands
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Ainley D, Russell J, Jenouvrier S, Woehler E, Lyver PO, Fraser WR, Kooyman GL. Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels. ECOL MONOGR 2010. [DOI: 10.1890/08-2289.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 133] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
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Igual JM, Tavecchia G, Jenouvrier S, Forero MG, Oro D. Buying years to extinction: is compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch a sufficient conservation measure for long-lived seabirds? PLoS One 2009; 4:e4826. [PMID: 19279685 PMCID: PMC2653230 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2008] [Accepted: 02/16/2009] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Manuela G. Forero
- Estacion Biologica de Doñana-CSIC, Department of Biological Conservation, Sevilla, Spain
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Jenouvrier S, Boulinier T. Estimation of local extinction rates when species detectability covaries with extinction probability: is it a problem? OIKOS 2006. [DOI: 10.1111/j.0030-1299.2006.14276.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Abstract
Capture-recapture models were developed to estimate survival using data arising from marking and monitoring wild animals over time. Variation in survival may be explained by incorporating relevant covariates. We propose nonparametric and semiparametric regression methods for estimating survival in capture-recapture models. A fully Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations was employed to estimate the model parameters. The work is illustrated by a study of Snow petrels, in which survival probabilities are expressed as nonlinear functions of a climate covariate, using data from a 40-year study on marked individuals, nesting at Petrels Island, Terre Adélie.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Gimenez
- Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NF, UK
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