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Alsos IG, Boussange V, Rijal DP, Beaulieu M, Brown AG, Herzschuh U, Svenning JC, Pellissier L. Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230017. [PMID: 38583481 PMCID: PMC10999269 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inger Greve Alsos
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Victor Boussange
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Dilli Prasad Rijal
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Marieke Beaulieu
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Antony Gavin Brown
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegraphenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, Potsdam University, 14479 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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Stegner MA, Spanbauer TL. North American pollen records provide evidence for macroscale ecological changes in the Anthropocene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2306815120. [PMID: 37844232 PMCID: PMC10614604 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2306815120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting ecological systems globally, giving rise to the Anthropocene. Critical reorganization of biological communities and biodiversity loss are expected to accelerate as anthropogenic global change continues. Long-term records offer context for understanding baseline conditions and those trajectories that are beyond the range of normal fluctuation seen over recent millennia: Are we causing changes that are fundamentally different from changes in the past? Using a rich dataset of late Quaternary pollen records, stored in the open-access and community-curated Neotoma database, we analyzed changes in biodiversity and community composition since the end Pleistocene in North America. We measured taxonomic richness, short-term taxonomic loss and gain, first/last appearances (FAD/LAD), and abrupt community change. For all analyses, we incorporated age-model uncertainty and accounted for differences in sample size to generate conservative estimates. The most prominent signals of elevated vegetation change were seen during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and since 200 calendar years before present (cal YBP). During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, abrupt changes and FADs were elevated, and from 200 to -50 cal YBP, we found increases in short-term taxonomic loss, FADs, LADs, and abrupt changes. Taxonomic richness declined from ~13,000 cal YBP until about 6,000 cal YBP and then increased until the present, reaching levels seen during the end Pleistocene. Regionally, patterns were highly variable. These results show that recent changes associated with anthropogenic impacts are comparable to the landscape changes that took place as we moved from a glacial to interglacial world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Trisha L. Spanbauer
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Lake Erie Center, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH43606
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3
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Pigot AL, Merow C, Wilson A, Trisos CH. Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1060-1071. [PMID: 37202503 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02070-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Cory Merow
- Eversource Energy Center and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Adam Wilson
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
| | - Christopher H Trisos
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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4
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Rodengen TJ, Pellatt MG, Kohfeld KE. Paleoecological Investigation of Vegetation, Climate and Fire History in, and Adjacent to, Kootenay National Park, Southeastern British Columbia, Canada. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.768785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Paleoecological investigation of two montane lakes in the Kootenay region of southeast British Columbia, Canada, reveal changes in vegetation in response to climate and fire throughout the Holocene. Pollen, charcoal, and lake sediment carbon accumulation rate analyses show seven distinct zones at Marion Lake, presently in the subalpine Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir (ESSF) biogeoclimatic (BEC) zone of Kootenay Valley, British Columbia. Comparison of these records to nearby Dog Lake of Kootenay National Park of Canada in the Montane Spruce (MS) BEC zone of Kootenay Valley, British Columbia reveals unique responses of ecosystems in topographically complex regions. The two most dramatic shifts in vegetation at Marion Lake occur firstly in the early Holocene/late Pleistocene in ML Zone 3 (11,010–10,180 cal. yr. B.P.) possibly reflecting Younger Dryas Chronozone cooling followed by early Holocene xerothermic warming noted by the increased presence of the dry adapted conifer, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and increasing fire frequency. The second most prominent change occurred at the transition from ML Zone 5 through 6a (∼2,500 cal. yr. B.P.). This zone transitions from a warmer to a cooler/wetter climate as indicated by the increase in western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and subsequent drop in fire frequency. The overall cooling trend and reduction in fire frequency appears to have occurred ∼700 years later than at Dog Lake (∼43 km to the south and 80 m lower in elevation), resulting in a closed montane spruce forest, whereas Marion Lake developed into a subalpine ecosystem. The temporal and ecological differences between the two study sites likely reflects the particular climate threshold needed to move these ecosystems from developed forests to subalpine conditions, as well as local site climate and fire conditions. These paleoecological records indicate future warming may result in the MS transitioning into an Interior Douglas Fir (IDF) dominated landscape, while the ESSF may become more forested, similar to the modern MS, or develop into a grassland-like landscape dependent on fire frequency. These results indicate that climate and disturbance over a regional area can dictate very different localized vegetative states. Local management implications of these dynamic landscapes will need to understand how ecosystems respond to climate and disturbance at the local or ecosystem/habitat scale.
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Williams JW, Ordonez A, Svenning JC. A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:17-26. [PMID: 33288870 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.
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Fordham DA, Jackson ST, Brown SC, Huntley B, Brook BW, Dahl-Jensen D, Gilbert MTP, Otto-Bliesner BL, Svensson A, Theodoridis S, Wilmshurst JM, Buettel JC, Canteri E, McDowell M, Orlando L, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science 2020; 369:369/6507/eabc5654. [PMID: 32855310 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. .,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Anders Svensson
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Spyros Theodoridis
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Janet M Wilmshurst
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.,School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Elisabetta Canteri
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Matthew McDowell
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Laboratoire d'Anthropobiologie Moléculaire et d'Imagerie de Synthèse UMR 5288, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, France.,Section for GeoGenetics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
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7
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Turner MG, Calder WJ, Cumming GS, Hughes TP, Jentsch A, LaDeau SL, Lenton TM, Shuman BN, Turetsky MR, Ratajczak Z, Williams JW, Williams AP, Carpenter SR. Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 375:20190105. [PMID: 31983326 PMCID: PMC7017767 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - W. John Calder
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Graeme S. Cumming
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Terry P. Hughes
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Anke Jentsch
- Department of Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany
| | | | | | - Bryan N. Shuman
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Merritt R. Turetsky
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, CanadaN1G 2W1
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - John W. Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - A. Park Williams
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Julien Massé Jodoin
- Dept of Biology, McGill Univ., 1205 Avenue du Docteur Penfield Montreal QC H3A 1B1 Canada
| | - Frédéric Guichard
- Dept of Biology, McGill Univ., 1205 Avenue du Docteur Penfield Montreal QC H3A 1B1 Canada
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